Heh, interesting OP. It has some good points in it, some of those predictions I think are offbase, but that's why they're guessing predictions of course. We should make a thread about it, and all post our ideas of how things will develop and then get back to it 1.5 years later to see what was right and what not
- WoW gamers not actual MMORPG gamers?? Eh, if I'm correct whole hordes of MMO gamers back then from EQ, SWG and other ones went to play WoW and a lot of those stayed for years. I'd also think that a lot of the gamers than entered the MMO genre with WoW have since then broadened their horizon. It's not for nothing that AoC and WAR sold 1 million boxes; only those failed to deliver. The thing is, (most) gamers don't really care whether another MMO is very much alike WoW or not, as long as it's a fun online MMO home to spend your time in. If not, then why would they leave their former MMO's like WoW permanently for it?
To make MMO gamers stay in an MMORPG, it has to be of a same level of entertainment and quality as WoW was, and then it doesn't matter whether an MMORPG resembles WoW or not.
Big budget MMO's dying out, now that's where I think the betting and guessing can become interesting: I see more of a natural evolution - finally! - happening than a dying out: sorry, but with a GW2, TERA, Rift, SW:TOR, The Secret World, Neverwinter with its user generated content, Firefall, Earthrise, World of Darkness coming up I foresee more the much needed revival and breathe of fresh air of the MMO genre than a mutating or withering away of it. The next 1.5 year will be a great time for the majority of MMORPG gamers.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Heh, interesting OP. It has some good points in it, some of those predictions I think are offbase, but that's why they're guessing predictions of course. We should make a thread about it, and all post our ideas of how things will develop and then get back to it 1.5 years later to see what was right and what not
- WoW gamers not actual MMORPG gamers?? Eh, if I'm correct whole hordes of MMO gamers back then from EQ, SWG and other ones went to play WoW and a lot of those stayed for years. I'd also think that a lot of the gamers than entered the MMO genre with WoW have since then broadened their horizon. It's not for nothing that AoC and WAR sold 1 million boxes; only those failed to deliver. The thing is, (most) gamers don't really care whether another MMO is very much alike WoW or not, as long as it's a fun online MMO home to spend your time in. If not, then why would they leave their former MMO's like WoW permanently for it?
To make MMO gamers stay in an MMORPG, it has to be of a same level of entertainment and quality as WoW was, and then it doesn't matter whether an MMORPG resembles WoW or not.
Big budget MMO's dying out, now that's where I think the betting and guessing can become interesting: I see more of a natural evolution - finally! - happening than a dying out: sorry, but with a GW2, TERA, Rift, SW:TOR, The Secret World, Neverwinter with its user generated content, Firefall, Earthrise, World of Darkness coming up I foresee more the much needed revival and breathe of fresh air of the MMO genre than a mutating or withering away of it. The next 1.5 year will be a great time for the majority of MMORPG gamers.
+1
Tired of the assumptions made about WoW gamers. I used to be one, played for two years. Started back in 1999 with EQ. I still like WoW, but I can't play games for more than two years as I am easily bored looking at the same thing all the time. I love that the future has so many MMOs coming out, it will satisfy my ADD driven nature.
Heh, interesting OP. It has some good points in it, some of those predictions I think are offbase, but that's why they're guessing predictions of course. We should make a thread about it, and all post our ideas of how things will develop and then get back to it 1.5 years later to see what was right and what not
- WoW gamers not actual MMORPG gamers?? Eh, if I'm correct whole hordes of MMO gamers back then from EQ, SWG and other ones went to play WoW and a lot of those stayed for years. I'd also think that a lot of the gamers than entered the MMO genre with WoW have since then broadened their horizon. It's not for nothing that AoC and WAR sold 1 million boxes; only those failed to deliver. The thing is, (most) gamers don't really care whether another MMO is very much alike WoW or not, as long as it's a fun online MMO home to spend your time in. If not, then why would they leave their former MMO's like WoW permanently for it?
To make MMO gamers stay in an MMORPG, it has to be of a same level of entertainment and quality as WoW was, and then it doesn't matter whether an MMORPG resembles WoW or not.
Big budget MMO's dying out, now that's where I think the betting and guessing can become interesting: I see more of a natural evolution - finally! - happening than a dying out: sorry, but with a GW2, TERA, Rift, SW:TOR, The Secret World, Neverwinter with its user generated content, Firefall, Earthrise, World of Darkness coming up I foresee more the much needed revival and breathe of fresh air of the MMO genre than a mutating or withering away of it. The next 1.5 year will be a great time for the majority of MMORPG gamers.
I sort of made concession to your points and of coarse this is mostly my opinion (hence my temporary insanity disclaimer :P ). I gave a little evidence that was later back up by another poster that at least SOME WoW players are just WoW players.
I also said that there are WoW players that branch out but they usually just go back to WoW as all they find are clones that do it worse or games out of their comfort (easy mode) zone.
I know my post came off as generalizing which is not what I meant to do and I am sorry for that.
Also, to clarify, I don't think AAA big budget MMOs will completely die off, just that after 2011 we wont see 7+ dropping in one year. We will be lucky to get 1 every year.
Fun read Although I think predicting if it comes to MMO's is just as difficult as predicting long term economic tendencies. Itll all be about criticism in hindsight
Agred OP the future does indeed look very grim. Companies running (ruined!!) by suits trying to overhype wowmodelled games and talking about BS like break even point or how long the game has to last (yes I*m looking at you EA bastards), instead of focussing on creating a great virtual world.
Companies fail and fail and fail to understand, that WoW players aren[object Window]t necessarly MMORPG players. Most of them came from FPS or RTS games, they wont cancel their 6 year old lvl 85 toon with full t10 for a game which is modelled in a similar way. Tbh wo would? Why play a copy if you can play the original? As long as companies fail to understand this fact there will be other games like Warhammer.
I also hate it when companies do go public with the sub numbers I mean, seriously who cares? It doesn[object Window]t change my experience if there are 3.000, 100.000 or 2.000.000 playing my game, in fact couldn[object Window] t care less.
What we need are MMORPGS virtual worlds instead of simple game [object Window]themepark[object Window] worlds or a mixture of both. Maybe the most important point is to get rid off the big publishers and suits ruining studios over and over again.
I too see virtual wolds as the the future. The game I sorta made up on the spot a few posts back was a virtual world. The problem is sandbox (virtual world) games do not appeal to the masses if they are linked with heavy RPG mechanics.
Since money is the end-all-be-all the companies are not inclined to make virtual worlds yet. When MMOAGs become the mainstream though I can see more casuals getting into Sandbox MMOs because Action games do not have a lot of the clunky RPG stuff we vets enjoy. These virtual worlds will also probably bolster population by making a "farm town" portion of the game for the ultra casuals. They can then use the money made to create more content for the hardcore.
From my experience the time is ripe to take WoW's playerbase away. Every time I go back to WoW I find it full of people who would love to find another game but there is just nothing out there that offers the same quality.
There has been no MMO released since WoW that offered the same depth, quality, and polish. With no true competitors ever having been released how can you possibly say that WoW's playerbase couldn't be stolen?
Even LoTRO which the OP uses as an example was not a competitor. At it's release it was very quirky and released without any real world marketing (by this I mean outside of the MMO community). If you could name even one game that was released since WoW that was top notch at release I might agree.
For an example I recently tried the flop of a launch that was called FFXIV. At launch it was chock full of people coming from WoW that were desperate for something new and different. When they joined and found a game that had absolutely no content or fun in it, they bought Cataclysm and went back. If FFXIV had provided a quality gaming experience at the start I think they easily could have stolen around a million of WoW's playerbase.
Also, to clarify, I don't think AAA big budget MMOs will completely die off, just that after 2011 we wont see 7+ dropping in one year. We will be lucky to get 1 every year.
To be fair, I don't think that there has ever been that many promising and big potential MMO's dropping in one year since the very early beginnings of the MMO genre when Meridian59 and UO made their appearance, nor do I think that such a situation will happen again within the next 5 years or more.
Sure, people will refer to an AoC and WAR that came out in the same year, but to compare those with the line up of a Rift, GW2, SW:TOR, TERA, The Secret World and maybe even a World of Darkness all in the span of 1-1.5 year, yeah, that's a glaring difference and a pretty special situation. Add to that some smaller still interesting titles, and time becomes a scarce commodity.
I'm sure that there will be people that will keep whining and complaining how all those upcoming MMORPG's are so much less than the ancient golden MMO's or bring too little innovation to their taste, but I for one intend to enjoy the upcoming MMO year or two to the fullest, for all its unique abundance that it's worth
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Also, to clarify, I don't think AAA big budget MMOs will completely die off, just that after 2011 we wont see 7+ dropping in one year. We will be lucky to get 1 every year.
To be fair, I don't think that there has ever been that many promising and big potential MMO's dropping in one year since the very early beginnings of the MMO genre when Meridian59 and UO made their appearance, nor do I think that such a situation will happen again within the next 5 years or more.
Sure, people will refer to an AoC and WAR that came out in the same year, but to compare those with the line up of a Rift, GW2, SW:TOR, TERA, The Secret World and maybe even a World of Darkness all in the span of 1-1.5 year, yeah, that's a glaring difference and a pretty special situation. Add to that some smaller still interesting titles, and time becomes a scarce commodity.
I'm sure that there will be people that will keep whining and complaining how all those upcoming MMORPG's are so much less than the ancient golden MMO's or bring too little innovation to their taste, but I for one intend to enjoy the upcoming MMO year or two to the fullest, for all its unique abundance that it's worth
Oh I really haven't meant to bash the quality of the games coming next year. I have had the pleasure of playing most of them at conferences, etc. This could be the best year for MMORPGs ever based on quality and just them all being good games.
The problem isn't the games being bad, its that they are fighting for a population that doesn't exist.
You mention AoC and War having good box sales, well that was just two games. take the two million box sales (or whatever) for those games and split them up 5-7 ways and you see what I am trying to get at. Yes a lot of people will double dip and play more than one. But when you main revenue stream is subscriptions, then retintion is key. Most MMO gamers are so cheap they can barely justify one game....let alone 5.
From my experience the time is ripe to take WoW's playerbase away. Every time I go back to WoW I find it full of people who would love to find another game but there is just nothing out there that offers the same quality.
There has been no MMO released since WoW that offered the same depth, quality, and polish. With no true competitors ever having been released how can you possibly say that WoW's playerbase couldn't be stolen?
Even LoTRO which the OP uses as an example was not a competitor. At it's release it was very quirky and released without any real world marketing (by this I mean outside of the MMO community). If you could name even one game that was released since WoW that was top notch at release I might agree.
For an example I recently tried the flop of a launch that was called FFXIV. At launch it was chock full of people coming from WoW that were desperate for something new and different. When they joined and found a game that had absolutely no content or fun in it, they bought Cataclysm and went back. If FFXIV had provided a quality gaming experience at the start I think they easily could have stolen around a million of WoW's playerbase.
That group of people you are reffering to is mostly the MMORPG community. They are probably around 500,000k - 750k strong (pretty big but niche compared to WoW). Yes many are playing WoW to pass the time and yes they want another game.
We need to DDOS WoW's servers, or better yet, hack them and release the credit card info. That's right, WoW must die for the MMO genre to live. So either kill off WoW, or we just kill every idiotic player that plays it.
Try all you want to deny it, but WoW must die for the MMO genre survive.
Since WoW the MMO genre has stagnated. Tell me which games are most different then WoW?
Willing to bet everygame you list will be from BEFORE WoW was released, like EvE Online.
Sorry but I just don't believe in this segregation between "MMO" and "WoW" players. In my experience they are one and the same. Name me one game that was a legitimate competitor to WoW in the past 6 years and my opinion might be swayed. Beyond a quality game at launch this also includes a dedicated real world marketing campaign.
You might have been right 6 years ago, but those people are MMO players now and can be swayed to play another.
Sorry but I just don't believe in this segregation between "MMO" and "WoW" players. In my experience they are one and the same. Name me one game that was a legitimate competitor to WoW in the past 6 years and my opinion might be swayed. Beyond a quality game at launch this also includes a dedicated real world marketing campaign.
You might have been right 6 years ago, but those people are MMO players now and can be swayed to play another.
The WoW players who play nothing but WoW and don't even realize there are other games out there goes against your argument. But you can be right, maybe you are, for the sake of the games in 2011 I hope you are.
With games like RIFT, TERA, and Warhammer 40k online coming out, there's no reason for WoW nerds to continue hiding in their mothers basement, Nose in screen. I think everyone should at least TRY other games.. but hey people will play what they want to play ^.^
( I mean this with No offence to WoW players either, just an example of an addicted MMO player, could be any game that has become an addiction )
With games like RIFT, TERA, and Warhammer 40k online coming out, there's no reason for WoW nerds to continue hiding in their mothers basement, Nose in screen. I think everyone should at least TRY other games.. but hey people will play what they want to play ^.^
( I mean this with No offence to WoW players either, just an example of an addicted MMO player, could be any game that has become an addiction )
But wouldn't they still be in there mother's basement?!?! :P
That reminds me, get out side kids, the sun feels good!
Sorry but I just don't believe in this segregation between "MMO" and "WoW" players. In my experience they are one and the same. Name me one game that was a legitimate competitor to WoW in the past 6 years and my opinion might be swayed. Beyond a quality game at launch this also includes a dedicated real world marketing campaign.
You might have been right 6 years ago, but those people are MMO players now and can be swayed to play another.
The WoW players who play nothing but WoW and don't even realize there are other games out there goes against your argument. But you can be right, maybe you are, for the sake of the games in 2011 I hope you are.
I don't really see how WoW players not being aware of other MMORPGs goes against his argument. Look at an analogy...
I think you would agree that people who play "Call of Duty: Black Ops" are FPS gamers. Now, I would not be surprised if many of these gamers were not aware of FPS's aside from the Halo series and the CoD series. Regardless though, they are STILL FPS gamers and they can still be won over by an FPS game that is superior to Black Ops.
The only thing that makes WoW seem like it's some crazy anomoly is the fact that it is seriously leaps and bounds better than any other MMORPG I can think of on the market. Like it or not, I think most of us would have to (grudingly) admit that WoW is a very high quality and polished game. In fact, most MMORPGs that are released have just a small subset of the features that WoW offers and don't really excel over WoW in any particular area.
Once a game is released that is superior to WoW and is marketed well, I think that all of this talk about WoW being a magic MMORPG black-hole that somehow defies all logic will fade away. The fact is, that just hasn't happened yet.
Sorry but I just don't believe in this segregation between "MMO" and "WoW" players. In my experience they are one and the same. Name me one game that was a legitimate competitor to WoW in the past 6 years and my opinion might be swayed. Beyond a quality game at launch this also includes a dedicated real world marketing campaign.
You might have been right 6 years ago, but those people are MMO players now and can be swayed to play another.
The WoW players who play nothing but WoW and don't even realize there are other games out there goes against your argument. But you can be right, maybe you are, for the sake of the games in 2011 I hope you are.
I don't really see how WoW players not being aware of other MMORPGs goes against his argument. Look at an analogy...
I think you would agree that people who play "Call of Duty: Black Ops" are FPS gamers. Now, I would not be surprised if many of these gamers were not aware of FPS's aside from the Halo series and the CoD series. Regardless though, they are STILL FPS gamers and they can still be won over by an FPS game that is superior to Black Ops.
The only thing that makes WoW seem like it's some crazy anomoly is the fact that it is seriously leaps and bounds better than any other MMORPG I can think of on the market. Like it or not, I think most of us would have to (grudingly) admit that WoW is a very high quality and polished game. In fact, most MMORPGs that are released have just a small subset of the features that WoW offers and don't really excel over WoW in any particular area.
Once a game is released that is superior to WoW and is marketed well, I think that all of this talk about WoW being a magic MMORPG black-hole that somehow defies all logic will fade away. The fact is, that just hasn't happened yet.
I admit its hard for me to get my head around this idea because the FPS market is multiples of 10x bigger than the MMORPG market (as in number of gamers).
Call of Duty didn't bring fans to the genre, its so old and so established the fans were already there. Call of Duty just made a great game that was accessable. More so than even Halo.
WoW actually brought people into the MMORPG genre. It created its own fanbase and these people play WoW, not MMORPGs.
I don't really see how WoW players not being aware of other MMORPGs goes against his argument. Look at an analogy...
I think you would agree that people who play "Call of Duty: Black Ops" are FPS gamers. Now, I would not be surprised if many of these gamers were not aware of FPS's aside from the Halo series and the CoD series. Regardless though, they are STILL FPS gamers and they can still be won over by an FPS game that is superior to Black Ops.
The only thing that makes WoW seem like it's some crazy anomoly is the fact that it is seriously leaps and bounds better than any other MMORPG I can think of on the market. Like it or not, I think most of us would have to (grudingly) admit that WoW is a very high quality and polished game. In fact, most MMORPGs that are released have just a small subset of the features that WoW offers and don't really excel over WoW in any particular area.
Once a game is released that is superior to WoW and is marketed well, I think that all of this talk about WoW being a magic MMORPG black-hole that somehow defies all logic will fade away. The fact is, that just hasn't happened yet.
I admit its hard for me to get my head around this idea because the FPS market is multiples of 10x bigger than the MMORPG market (as in number of gamers).
Call of Duty didn't bring fans to the genre, its so old and so established the fans were already there. Call of Duty just made a great game that was accessable. More so than even Halo.
WoW actually brought people into the MMORPG genre. It created its own fanbase and these people play WoW, not MMORPGs.
Hmm well maybe CoD was a bad example, but the point still remains.
You mentioned Halo, so let's look at Halo. I think it's fair to say that Halo brought a lot of new people in the console FPS market, much like WoW did for the MMORPG market. And if you don't think Halo did this, then look back further to Perfect Dark and Goldeneye. The point is, that at some point FPS gamers were not FPS gamers, and some game brought them in.
This is going to be true of any game genre, or really any technology in general. Everyone has to start somehwere, but that doesn't mean that they are going to stay where they started forever. When I first started playing UO, I knew nothing about other MMO's like Meridian 59. That does not mean I was not a MMORPG gamer.
@Vow- ; And LOL at GW2 as a WoW-Killer. Since you mentioned it I can assume you obviously can't get passed fanboyism because if you could then you would realise that WoW can never be killed by ANY mmo because the people that play WoW are not necissarily the same people that will play GW2 (in fact most wow players will never hear about GW2).
Please keep the fanboy crap out of this thread.
WoW can never be killed? OMG, then it will be the scourge of mmos TILL THE END OF TIME?
Well, most likely, no. The reason why WoW became so popular is viral marketing. If another game can get enough momentum, history will repeat itself. If enough WoW-gamers switch, their friends/guildmates will switch as well, then their fríend's friends, and then their girlfriends, grandparents, pets, and plenty of those other non-gamers who are currently playing WoW.
GW2 is currently the most likely candidate for that. Although I just figured that Cataclysm isn't the last expansion, like Blizzard originally announced. Well, i guess that made killing WoW a lot harder -.-
I don't really see how WoW players not being aware of other MMORPGs goes against his argument. Look at an analogy...
I think you would agree that people who play "Call of Duty: Black Ops" are FPS gamers. Now, I would not be surprised if many of these gamers were not aware of FPS's aside from the Halo series and the CoD series. Regardless though, they are STILL FPS gamers and they can still be won over by an FPS game that is superior to Black Ops.
The only thing that makes WoW seem like it's some crazy anomoly is the fact that it is seriously leaps and bounds better than any other MMORPG I can think of on the market. Like it or not, I think most of us would have to (grudingly) admit that WoW is a very high quality and polished game. In fact, most MMORPGs that are released have just a small subset of the features that WoW offers and don't really excel over WoW in any particular area.
Once a game is released that is superior to WoW and is marketed well, I think that all of this talk about WoW being a magic MMORPG black-hole that somehow defies all logic will fade away. The fact is, that just hasn't happened yet.
I admit its hard for me to get my head around this idea because the FPS market is multiples of 10x bigger than the MMORPG market (as in number of gamers).
Call of Duty didn't bring fans to the genre, its so old and so established the fans were already there. Call of Duty just made a great game that was accessable. More so than even Halo.
WoW actually brought people into the MMORPG genre. It created its own fanbase and these people play WoW, not MMORPGs.
Hmm well maybe CoD was a bad example, but the point still remains.
You mentioned Halo, so let's look at Halo. I think it's fair to say that Halo brought a lot of new people in the console FPS market, much like WoW did for the MMORPG market. And if you don't think Halo did this, then look back further to Perfect Dark and Goldeneye. The point is, that at some point FPS gamers were not FPS gamers, and some game brought them in.
This is going to be true of any game genre, or really any technology in general. Everyone has to start somehwere, but that doesn't mean that they are going to stay where they started forever. When I first started playing UO, I knew nothing about other MMO's like Meridian 59. That does not mean I was not a MMORPG gamer.
The difference is goldeneye, etc. didn't put people on a gear grind and addict them. It opened some eyes, a lot of eyes, about what could be done on consoles but the burrier there was the technology not the gameplay.
The gameplay is the reason people stayed away from MMORPGs not the technology. Which is why I believe there is a difference. People who love WoW are generally not comfortable with other types of MMOs and the clones just give them a been there done that feeling.
FPS were hugely popular on the PCss and not popular on consoles. The games you mention just made it where you could play them on the consoles. Does that make any sense?
@Vow- ; And LOL at GW2 as a WoW-Killer. Since you mentioned it I can assume you obviously can't get passed fanboyism because if you could then you would realise that WoW can never be killed by ANY mmo because the people that play WoW are not necissarily the same people that will play GW2 (in fact most wow players will never hear about GW2).
Please keep the fanboy crap out of this thread.
WoW can never be killed? OMG, then it will be the scourge of mmos TILL THE END OF TIME?
Well, most likely, no. The reason why WoW became so popular is viral marketing. If another game can get enough momentum, history will repeat itself. If enough WoW-gamers switch, their friends/guildmates will switch as well, then their fríend's friends, and then their girlfriends, grandparents, pets, and plenty of those other non-gamers who are currently playing WoW.
GW2 is currently the most likely candidate for that. Although I just figured that Cataclysm isn't the last expansion, like Blizzard originally announced. Well, i guess that made killing WoW a lot harder -.-
I feel like posting that black board thing that Xbox fans used to use to troll PS3 fans. Basically it had a bunch of games that would "save the PS3" crossed off and the newest "savior" bolded.
Thats how I feel about the "killing WoW" thing. WoW has left a lot of corpses behind it. There is no logical avenue of thought that should lead anyone to believe that GW2 is going to be the one to do it. That doesn't mean GW2 isn't going to be a great game.
Comments
Didn't I see this post 8 years ago here? Oh wait that's right, its posted every month.
Sent me an email if you want me to mail you some pizza rolls.
Heh, interesting OP. It has some good points in it, some of those predictions I think are offbase, but that's why they're guessing predictions of course. We should make a thread about it, and all post our ideas of how things will develop and then get back to it 1.5 years later to see what was right and what not
- WoW gamers not actual MMORPG gamers?? Eh, if I'm correct whole hordes of MMO gamers back then from EQ, SWG and other ones went to play WoW and a lot of those stayed for years. I'd also think that a lot of the gamers than entered the MMO genre with WoW have since then broadened their horizon. It's not for nothing that AoC and WAR sold 1 million boxes; only those failed to deliver. The thing is, (most) gamers don't really care whether another MMO is very much alike WoW or not, as long as it's a fun online MMO home to spend your time in. If not, then why would they leave their former MMO's like WoW permanently for it?
To make MMO gamers stay in an MMORPG, it has to be of a same level of entertainment and quality as WoW was, and then it doesn't matter whether an MMORPG resembles WoW or not.
Big budget MMO's dying out, now that's where I think the betting and guessing can become interesting: I see more of a natural evolution - finally! - happening than a dying out: sorry, but with a GW2, TERA, Rift, SW:TOR, The Secret World, Neverwinter with its user generated content, Firefall, Earthrise, World of Darkness coming up I foresee more the much needed revival and breathe of fresh air of the MMO genre than a mutating or withering away of it. The next 1.5 year will be a great time for the majority of MMORPG gamers.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
+1
Tired of the assumptions made about WoW gamers. I used to be one, played for two years. Started back in 1999 with EQ. I still like WoW, but I can't play games for more than two years as I am easily bored looking at the same thing all the time. I love that the future has so many MMOs coming out, it will satisfy my ADD driven nature.
Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.
I sort of made concession to your points and of coarse this is mostly my opinion (hence my temporary insanity disclaimer :P ). I gave a little evidence that was later back up by another poster that at least SOME WoW players are just WoW players.
I also said that there are WoW players that branch out but they usually just go back to WoW as all they find are clones that do it worse or games out of their comfort (easy mode) zone.
I know my post came off as generalizing which is not what I meant to do and I am sorry for that.
Also, to clarify, I don't think AAA big budget MMOs will completely die off, just that after 2011 we wont see 7+ dropping in one year. We will be lucky to get 1 every year.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
Fun read
Although I think predicting if it comes to MMO's is just as difficult as predicting long term economic tendencies. Itll all be about criticism in hindsight 
I too see virtual wolds as the the future. The game I sorta made up on the spot a few posts back was a virtual world. The problem is sandbox (virtual world) games do not appeal to the masses if they are linked with heavy RPG mechanics.
Since money is the end-all-be-all the companies are not inclined to make virtual worlds yet. When MMOAGs become the mainstream though I can see more casuals getting into Sandbox MMOs because Action games do not have a lot of the clunky RPG stuff we vets enjoy. These virtual worlds will also probably bolster population by making a "farm town" portion of the game for the ultra casuals. They can then use the money made to create more content for the hardcore.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
"I don't give a damn for a man that can only spell a word one way"
-Mark Twain
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
From my experience the time is ripe to take WoW's playerbase away. Every time I go back to WoW I find it full of people who would love to find another game but there is just nothing out there that offers the same quality.
There has been no MMO released since WoW that offered the same depth, quality, and polish. With no true competitors ever having been released how can you possibly say that WoW's playerbase couldn't be stolen?
Even LoTRO which the OP uses as an example was not a competitor. At it's release it was very quirky and released without any real world marketing (by this I mean outside of the MMO community). If you could name even one game that was released since WoW that was top notch at release I might agree.
For an example I recently tried the flop of a launch that was called FFXIV. At launch it was chock full of people coming from WoW that were desperate for something new and different. When they joined and found a game that had absolutely no content or fun in it, they bought Cataclysm and went back. If FFXIV had provided a quality gaming experience at the start I think they easily could have stolen around a million of WoW's playerbase.
Hyperbole.
To be fair, I don't think that there has ever been that many promising and big potential MMO's dropping in one year since the very early beginnings of the MMO genre when Meridian59 and UO made their appearance, nor do I think that such a situation will happen again within the next 5 years or more.
Sure, people will refer to an AoC and WAR that came out in the same year, but to compare those with the line up of a Rift, GW2, SW:TOR, TERA, The Secret World and maybe even a World of Darkness all in the span of 1-1.5 year, yeah, that's a glaring difference and a pretty special situation. Add to that some smaller still interesting titles, and time becomes a scarce commodity.
I'm sure that there will be people that will keep whining and complaining how all those upcoming MMORPG's are so much less than the ancient golden MMO's or bring too little innovation to their taste, but I for one intend to enjoy the upcoming MMO year or two to the fullest, for all its unique abundance that it's worth
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Oh I really haven't meant to bash the quality of the games coming next year. I have had the pleasure of playing most of them at conferences, etc. This could be the best year for MMORPGs ever based on quality and just them all being good games.
The problem isn't the games being bad, its that they are fighting for a population that doesn't exist.
You mention AoC and War having good box sales, well that was just two games. take the two million box sales (or whatever) for those games and split them up 5-7 ways and you see what I am trying to get at. Yes a lot of people will double dip and play more than one. But when you main revenue stream is subscriptions, then retintion is key. Most MMO gamers are so cheap they can barely justify one game....let alone 5.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
That group of people you are reffering to is mostly the MMORPG community. They are probably around 500,000k - 750k strong (pretty big but niche compared to WoW). Yes many are playing WoW to pass the time and yes they want another game.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
We need to DDOS WoW's servers, or better yet, hack them and release the credit card info. That's right, WoW must die for the MMO genre to live. So either kill off WoW, or we just kill every idiotic player that plays it.
Try all you want to deny it, but WoW must die for the MMO genre survive.
Since WoW the MMO genre has stagnated. Tell me which games are most different then WoW?
Willing to bet everygame you list will be from BEFORE WoW was released, like EvE Online.
Sorry but I just don't believe in this segregation between "MMO" and "WoW" players. In my experience they are one and the same. Name me one game that was a legitimate competitor to WoW in the past 6 years and my opinion might be swayed. Beyond a quality game at launch this also includes a dedicated real world marketing campaign.
You might have been right 6 years ago, but those people are MMO players now and can be swayed to play another.
The WoW players who play nothing but WoW and don't even realize there are other games out there goes against your argument. But you can be right, maybe you are, for the sake of the games in 2011 I hope you are.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
With games like RIFT, TERA, and Warhammer 40k online coming out, there's no reason for WoW nerds to continue hiding in their mothers basement, Nose in screen. I think everyone should at least TRY other games.. but hey people will play what they want to play ^.^
( I mean this with No offence to WoW players either, just an example of an addicted MMO player, could be any game that has become an addiction )
-AUTUMN ROSE DOWNFALL-
But wouldn't they still be in there mother's basement?!?! :P
That reminds me, get out side kids, the sun feels good!
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
I don't really see how WoW players not being aware of other MMORPGs goes against his argument. Look at an analogy...
I think you would agree that people who play "Call of Duty: Black Ops" are FPS gamers. Now, I would not be surprised if many of these gamers were not aware of FPS's aside from the Halo series and the CoD series. Regardless though, they are STILL FPS gamers and they can still be won over by an FPS game that is superior to Black Ops.
The only thing that makes WoW seem like it's some crazy anomoly is the fact that it is seriously leaps and bounds better than any other MMORPG I can think of on the market. Like it or not, I think most of us would have to (grudingly) admit that WoW is a very high quality and polished game. In fact, most MMORPGs that are released have just a small subset of the features that WoW offers and don't really excel over WoW in any particular area.
Once a game is released that is superior to WoW and is marketed well, I think that all of this talk about WoW being a magic MMORPG black-hole that somehow defies all logic will fade away. The fact is, that just hasn't happened yet.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
I admit its hard for me to get my head around this idea because the FPS market is multiples of 10x bigger than the MMORPG market (as in number of gamers).
Call of Duty didn't bring fans to the genre, its so old and so established the fans were already there. Call of Duty just made a great game that was accessable. More so than even Halo.
WoW actually brought people into the MMORPG genre. It created its own fanbase and these people play WoW, not MMORPGs.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
Hmm well maybe CoD was a bad example, but the point still remains.
You mentioned Halo, so let's look at Halo. I think it's fair to say that Halo brought a lot of new people in the console FPS market, much like WoW did for the MMORPG market. And if you don't think Halo did this, then look back further to Perfect Dark and Goldeneye. The point is, that at some point FPS gamers were not FPS gamers, and some game brought them in.
This is going to be true of any game genre, or really any technology in general. Everyone has to start somehwere, but that doesn't mean that they are going to stay where they started forever. When I first started playing UO, I knew nothing about other MMO's like Meridian 59. That does not mean I was not a MMORPG gamer.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Let me ask you this, how are people who don't spend their time surfing gaming websites on the internet supposed to find out about these MMO's?
The reason people know about WoW and nothing else is that Blizzard is the only MMO company that is spending money on advertising in traditional media.
+1!
And thus I fully agree and support this statement.
WoW can never be killed? OMG, then it will be the scourge of mmos TILL THE END OF TIME?
Well, most likely, no. The reason why WoW became so popular is viral marketing. If another game can get enough momentum, history will repeat itself. If enough WoW-gamers switch, their friends/guildmates will switch as well, then their fríend's friends, and then their girlfriends, grandparents, pets, and plenty of those other non-gamers who are currently playing WoW.
GW2 is currently the most likely candidate for that. Although I just figured that Cataclysm isn't the last expansion, like Blizzard originally announced. Well, i guess that made killing WoW a lot harder -.-
Hype train -> Reality
The difference is goldeneye, etc. didn't put people on a gear grind and addict them. It opened some eyes, a lot of eyes, about what could be done on consoles but the burrier there was the technology not the gameplay.
The gameplay is the reason people stayed away from MMORPGs not the technology. Which is why I believe there is a difference. People who love WoW are generally not comfortable with other types of MMOs and the clones just give them a been there done that feeling.
FPS were hugely popular on the PCss and not popular on consoles. The games you mention just made it where you could play them on the consoles. Does that make any sense?
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2
I feel like posting that black board thing that Xbox fans used to use to troll PS3 fans. Basically it had a bunch of games that would "save the PS3" crossed off and the newest "savior" bolded.
Thats how I feel about the "killing WoW" thing. WoW has left a lot of corpses behind it. There is no logical avenue of thought that should lead anyone to believe that GW2 is going to be the one to do it. That doesn't mean GW2 isn't going to be a great game.
Playing: Tera, BF3, ME3
Waiting on: Guild Wars 2