i love reading these threads. they make me laugh at how little thought people put into these " debates" over how great WoW is, and how evry other game is doomed to fail out of the gate because blizzard is the only company that knows how to create a game. The fact is WoW wasnt a great game at release. it took years and lots of patches and expansions to create the game that exisists today. BUT, they did create a social comunity that is prob second only to facebook in terms of people commiting unprecedented amounts of their social identities into, to the point where like, people in bad relationships but suffer from low selfesteem, are almost prisoners of the game by fear of being alone. Millions of WoW players leave to try other games every year, but ultimately come back because they cant find that familiar feeling or connection that they had in WoW. Most every hardcore WoW player i know is bored with it, and has been for a long time but they continue to log in night after night because "the guild is counting on them" or they are afraid "they might miss something". Ultimately, fear of change and faceing the unknown is the greatest WoW strength in staying power, and will be the toughest obstacle for any new game on the market, that will also include the next big game from blizzard.
I've never thought about it like this, maybe because I quited WoW when I reached 80. But those ppl are almost in every game. But I guess at WoW is most of em. This is realy interesting explanation. Thx for sharing. My version (which I think I've never said so far) was that Blizz let you lvl 80 easy as hell so you are not bored yet by the game, let you to grind tons of hous and when you figure out its boring as hell you already have so many stuff here you dont wanna quit. Kind similar to yours. But your explanation is way better! :P
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online Playing: CS:GO
Guild wars 2 will the better game, sw:tor will 'compete' more as only the latter requires subs. The former can be bought and enjoyed by all MMO players alongside their standard sub game
To put everything into perspective for the DAY DREAMERS out there.
Diablo 3 will probably sell 3 times the number of copies as those "competitors" will.
I guess their initial sales number will be around 1.5 million copies (since it is a PC only market and so forget all the console sales for previous games of Bioware and expansion on expasion on expansion on expansion CD's counted for GW).
That would mean I expect Diablo 3 to sell 4 -4.5 million copies in its first month ( around 1 million more than SC2).
No doubt Diablo 3 will be the biggest PC game launch of all those ...
... and then ... even an own Blizzard game .... selling 3 times more than those "would be MMo's" will not be a serious competitor for WOW's first place playing and subscriptions.
So scrolll back to 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and repeat.: "I am a day dreamer".
In a way, all games are a 'competitor' for WoW, but... serious challengers arent even yet on the horizon, i do not see any game currently out, or in development that would encourage me to think otherwise. That isnt to say that there arent some good games going to be coming out.. i just think its laughable that with every new game that is being developed, the Hyper'chondriacs are saying its going to be the WoW killer, and its just not happening, im not even sure the people who over hype these games even believe they will, but, if even one of these 'over hyped' games had lived up to its promises .. then they'd have millions playing them, as it is though, its just pure unfiltered BS.. one of the reasons i've stopped listening to all the hype and instead, i wait and see whether the games that get released are even worth playing a free trial of.... just look at all the games that have been released, that have been hyped through the roof, and what did we get.. STO.. FFXIV, APB, DCUO, and thats just a few games off the top of my head.. WoW killers, most of these games are lucky if they even survive, forget killing off other games.. after seeing what happens when they try and create MMO's that are 'console friendly' i kind of have to wonder if the reason why so many of these games turn out to be completely rubbish, is because the hardware constraints are too limiting, though that might well be an over simplification, i can't help but wonder if it isnt a large part of the problem.
after seeing what happens when they try and create MMO's that are 'console friendly' i kind of have to wonder if the reason why so many of these games turn out to be completely rubbish, is because the hardware constraints are too limiting, though that might well be an over simplification, i can't help but wonder if it isnt a large part of the problem.
The worst looking MMOs are exclusively on PC's, and arguably the best looking MMO's are/were set to be released on consoles.
What the top end PC's can do is hardly relevant when companies want to get as many subscribers as possible. They are looking for a middle-low end PC gamer with middle-low end PC hardware, which is still behind the current gen consoles.
Making the game for console allows the company to make the PC version much more heavy- consoles are cheap and offer quite good hardware for their price so there is no reason for the company to simply cater to low-end PC gamers anymore.
Using LOL is like saying "my argument sucks but I still want to disagree".
True that, if blizzard made such a huge success with WoW and that was their first mmo, I can't even comprehend how amazing their new project "Titan" will be.
Didn't you learn at school that you can't construct a graph from a single datum?
And didn't you learn in history that the best indicator of the future is the past?
None of these are going to be a WoW competitor. Those who think TOR will are just silly. Bioware makes fanastic single player games, but that experience means absolutely nothing in the MMO arena. GW2 is promising, but it's unlikelly to ever approach WoW's number of subs.
There are three things an upcoming MMO has to do if they want to even come close to WoW's sub count:
1. Asian presence. WoW, Aion, all of the games sporting large sub numbers receive the vast majority of them in Aion. Asian subs account for roughly 50% of WoW's subscription numbers, and something like 75% of Aion's. No Asian client means you're tossing several million potential subscribers.
2. You cannot play WoW's game. It's almost impossible to compete with them head to head. If you want to be the second coming, you can't play their game, you need to reinvent the game. Not a niche, but your game needs to change how we think about the genre in substantial ways. If your game is similar enough to be labeled a 'WoW clone' (like SWTOR), you've already failed.
3. Console presence. There are a massive number of console players that are relatively untapped by the MMO market. DCUO and a few others are trying to tap into this population, and it's a fantastic idea. Even though DCUO doesn't seem to be really great, the console angle alone will likely give it a healthy number of subs. This aspect is why FFXIV was my vote for Biggest Disappointment of 2010. With a presence on PC, PS3, and hopefully 360, combined with the Final Fantasy name and gameplay that wasn't a WoW clone, it COULD have been a massive, massive success if they hadn't dropped the ball so hard that it fell through the floor.
Therefore, while I think games like SWTOR and GW2 will do well, I will be surprised if they even pass Aion's numbers (which was around 4.4 million, the last time I checked).
after seeing what happens when they try and create MMO's that are 'console friendly' i kind of have to wonder if the reason why so many of these games turn out to be completely rubbish, is because the hardware constraints are too limiting, though that might well be an over simplification, i can't help but wonder if it isnt a large part of the problem.
The worst looking MMOs are exclusively on PC's, and arguably the best looking MMO's are/were set to be released on consoles.
What the top end PC's can do is hardly relevant when companies want to get as many subscribers as possible. They are looking for a middle-low end PC gamer with middle-low end PC hardware, which is still behind the current gen consoles.
Making the game for console allows the company to make the PC version much more heavy- consoles are cheap and offer quite good hardware for their price so there is no reason for the company to simply cater to low-end PC gamers anymore.
hmm, i wasnt talking about the graphics, though i think your wrong in thinking that only high end PC's have better graphics capabilities than consoles - as consoles are only really comparable to an Entry level gaming PC, one of the clear reasons why games on the PC's tend to look better than they do on the various consoles, take a more recent game for instant, Black Ops, which version had the best graphics, the PC, though the XBOX didnt fare too badly there, at least.. compared to the PS3, which could only run the game at a lower resolution compared to the other 2 versions, but even so, my complaints in terms of these games is not so much the graphics, but how they are played, control interfaces need to be easy to use, and intuitive, and despite everything, i still think that the only really good MMO's are PC only, i dont see that changing.. but i do see more bad games appearing.. because of console limitations.. and developers who seem to feel the need to try and drive square pegs through round holes... the trouble is .. cut off too many 'corners' and .. FFXIV, APB, DCUO, STO...
True that, if blizzard made such a huge success with WoW and that was their first mmo, I can't even comprehend how amazing their new project "Titan" will be.
Didn't you learn at school that you can't construct a graph from a single datum?
/agree with Naxrius. I feel like that "Titan" could be one thing that creates the same level of success that WoW does. Not that TOR and GW2 will not find success as well.
Uhh, both? "Hey GW2, you hold him while I punch him in the face and kick him in the nuts!" - TOR. Yes, TOR will be the more successful (subs-wise, at least) because of the bigger IP, big company name, and high ambition. GW2 will certainly interest many of the veteran MMO players by being "innovative", but TOR will get the newcomers - it'll replace WoW as the gateway MMO. Yes, prepare to see Chuck Norris in TOR. Unlike Blizzard, however, BioWare won't slaughter the lore just for the hell of it, so at least there will be something for RPers (who are generally more mature...).
True that, if blizzard made such a huge success with WoW and that was their first mmo, I can't even comprehend how amazing their new project "Titan" will be.
Didn't you learn at school that you can't construct a graph from a single datum?
And didn't you learn in history that the best indicator of the future is the past?
Rofl you completely missed his point. You make scientific assumptions based on a range of results not just one. No scientist worth his salt makes an assumption based on one result. There could be many factors that you don't know about or have no control that lead to that result, or it could just have been a fluke. Repetition improves accuracy.
Seriously what gives you the idea that blizzards next mmo will be as successful as WoW. It'll probably sell more than WoW did initially but what staying power do think it'll have. Companies have been trying to replicate WoWs success for years, why is so Blizzard special. The majority of people that originally made WoW aren't even in Blizzard anymore. All they have is lots of money and a brand name which many companies have had a still failed.
True that, if blizzard made such a huge success with WoW and that was their first mmo, I can't even comprehend how amazing their new project "Titan" will be.
Didn't you learn at school that you can't construct a graph from a single datum?
And didn't you learn in history that the best indicator of the future is the past?
Rofl you completely missed his point. You make scientific assumptions based on a range of results not just one. No scientist worth his salt makes an assumption based on one result. There could be many factors that you don't know about or have no control that lead to that result, or it could just have been a fluke. Repetition improves accuracy.
Seriously what gives you the idea that blizzards next mmo will be as successful as WoW. It'll probably sell more than WoW did initially but what staying power do think it'll have. Companies have been trying to replicate WoWs success for years, why is so Blizzard special. The majority of people that originally made WoW aren't even in Blizzard anymore. All they have is lots of money and a brand name which many companies have had a still failed.
Good point, just because WoW is successful, doesnt mean that Blizzards 'next' game will be, wouldnt be the first time that an experienced developer messed up, a while ago i would have said that Square-enix would have been a safe bet, but their last couple of games, FFXIV AND FFXIII both bombed, so, thats not just an IP with a cult following but a company that previously could be perceived to be capable of doing no wrong, Perhaps its because there is more choice these days, and players are a bit more 'discerning' at least, they're less likely to accept rubbish no matter what the logo on it.. Just means that having preconceptions is a bad idea..
None of these are going to be a WoW competitor. Those who think TOR will are just silly. Bioware makes fanastic single player games, but that experience means absolutely nothing in the MMO arena. GW2 is promising, but it's unlikelly to ever approach WoW's number of subs.
There are three things an upcoming MMO has to do if they want to even come close to WoW's sub count:
1. Asian presence. WoW, Aion, all of the games sporting large sub numbers receive the vast majority of them in Aion. Asian subs account for roughly 50% of WoW's subscription numbers, and something like 75% of Aion's. No Asian client means you're tossing several million potential subscribers.
2. You cannot compete directly with WoW. It's almost impossible to compete with them head to head. If you want to be the second coming, you can't play their game, you need to reinvent the game. Not a niche, but your game needs to change how we think about the genre in substantial ways.
3. Console presence. There are a massive number of console players that are relatively untapped by the MMO market. DCUO and a few others are trying to tap into this population, and it's a fantastic idea. Even though DCUO doesn't seem to be really great, the console angle alone will likely give it a healthy number of subs. This aspect is why FFXIV was my vote for Biggest Disappointment of 2010. With a presence on PC, PS3, and hopefully 360, combined with the Final Fantasy name and gameplay that wasn't a WoW clone, it COULD have been a massive, massive success if they hadn't dropped the ball so hard that it fell through the floor.
Therefore, while I think games like SWTOR and GW2 will do well, I will be surprised if they even pass Aion's numbers (which was around 4.4 million, the last time I checked).
QFT ^^
you also need to add number 4 - be incredibly casual friendly while at same time have some apparent notion of achievement . The idea of 'competing' with wow makes this almost mandatory , especially for a western market. Skilled workers and people with above average IQ make up a relatively small percentage of a population especially in the west , and hard work is generally frowned upon -its no coincidence that we refer to gold sellers as chinese generally .
The problem here is that as long as games are being made by businessmen with investments to think about , wow will always be used as the ideal business model for the dumb masses. The time seems to have gone when games were being made by real game enthusiasts wanting to make a great game.
The poster above referring to how blockbuster video has been superceded by netfix ( or lovefilm here in uk) is the one that I see as the future . An independant gamer / developer will bring something that sells from world of mouth alone will be the savour as I see it. At least in terms of having a decent game to play .
Therefore, while I think games like SWTOR and GW2 will do well, I will be surprised if they even pass Aion's numbers (which was around 4.4 million, the last time I checked).
I always shake the head when someone still tries to mention Aion in one sentence with WOW.
4 US servers for Aion and ... 241 US servers for WOW. How much fail of a Wow killer do you want ?
Aion was the latest one to challange, or wasn't that Final Fantasy ? Or wasn' that Lineage 2 (1 US server) 5 years ago.
Millions where are thou ? Somewhere around the world... Sure, but not in my playing yard m8.
hmm, i wasnt talking about the graphics, though i think your wrong in thinking that only high end PC's have better graphics capabilities than consoles - as consoles are only really comparable to an Entry level gaming PC, one of the clear reasons why games on the PC's tend to look better than they do on the various consoles, take a more recent game for instant, Black Ops, which version had the best graphics, the PC, though the XBOX didnt fare too badly there, at least.. compared to the PS3, which could only run the game at a lower resolution compared to the other 2 versions, but even so, my complaints in terms of these games is not so much the graphics, but how they are played, control interfaces need to be easy to use, and intuitive, and despite everything, i still think that the only really good MMO's are PC only, i dont see that changing.. but i do see more bad games appearing.. because of console limitations.. and developers who seem to feel the need to try and drive square pegs through round holes... the trouble is .. cut off too many 'corners' and .. FFXIV, APB, DCUO, STO...
You can't make a PC MMO on a console, but you can make a console MMO that rivals PC MMO's.
Multi-platform games are also best looking games, aside from very few select titles on the PC. Why? Because people don't have good enough computers, but consoles take care of that problem.
Being on a console doesnt mean the game automatically has poor user interface. There is no such limitation, only wrong decisions on the developer's end. Consoles have their fair share of games with proper easy to use UI's.
Using LOL is like saying "my argument sucks but I still want to disagree".
No one. Go experience the new Phasing from Cata in the various zones, cry, and understand that no one of these will ever beat WOW.
Hm, why is it that noone believes you? Because all of that is your opinion? I found other MMOs more fun than WoW. Most problem what ppl dont see is that what is mass product mostly suck. McDonald? Y ofc I enjoy it but its a horrible food if you look on every other thing than taste. Also modern music stars mostly suck, even some movies are just sad and tons of ppl love em. It just show how big consumers are ppl today! Even comedy is a pain in the ass and it wasnt... WoW just proves how ppl are d*mb these days. Thats all I'm sayin.
P.S. I love Blizz way to get ppl in - make easy leveling so you are max lvl faster, than give you tons hours of grinding so you think you actualy spend a lot of time here doing something - give you nice armor etc. And.. who would want to leave if they see "Oh maan, I did so much in WoW I dont wanna leave." Its just fear you wont be so successful in other MMOs. And you feel so powerful with all this equip what you grinded for. Equip > skill? No thx.
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online Playing: CS:GO
Therefore, while I think games like SWTOR and GW2 will do well, I will be surprised if they even pass Aion's numbers (which was around 4.4 million, the last time I checked).
I always shake the head when someone still tries to mention Aion in one sentence with WOW.
4 US servers for Aion and ... 241 US servers for WOW. How much fail of a Wow killer do you want ?
Aion was the latest one to challange, or wasn't that Final Fantasy ? Or wasn' that Lineage 2 (1 US server) 5 years ago.
Millions where are thou ? Somewhere around the world... Sure, but not in my playing yard m8.
He is talking about Asian markets as well, where Aion dwarfs WoW.
i think aion could've been stronger competiton to WoW if it didnt have such higher graphics demand then wow. i could play wow on my laptop, but i could only play aion on my higher end pc. Age of Conan also considerably limited the base they could draw on for the same reasons. i know people will say those games had huge issues at launch( especially Conan) but WoW had it's share of issuse at launch too. Realistically, most people dont want , or cant afford to go out and upgrade their computers everytime a new game comes out, thus already softening the impact these potential new challengers can make. I'm not saying these games are better then WoW, or that they would've hurt WoW. i'm just saying that they did offer a moderately new twist on the tired mmo formula that maybe more people would've given a shot if they could've played them with their existing systems.
Nothing can beat WoW. WoW has a reward system like no other. No challenge for huge rewards????? a noob's paradise. WoW has guides and tutorials that walk you through the whole game. I saw a strategy guide for WoW and I was thinking that every hardcore person would buy it since it would tell them where all the looooooot is.
The only thing that MMO people should be playing is either WoW or GW2(when it is released). Since GW 2 is subscription-free there should be no reason not to buy it or try it out at the least.
WoW has history (Warcraft 1 WC2, WC3 great RTS) and that is why it would catch my eye. I am sure the majority of WoW players have not even played the RTS series but they should because it has the lore. THen again I bet that majority dont even care about the story. It is the simplicity of WoW that has made it successful and no other MMO has found out how to do it. WoW has been metamorphed and transformed many times to accomodate every child or adult. If only their graphics where changed then it would have everything.
Therefore, while I think games like SWTOR and GW2 will do well, I will be surprised if they even pass Aion's numbers (which was around 4.4 million, the last time I checked).
I always shake the head when someone still tries to mention Aion in one sentence with WOW.
4 US servers for Aion and ... 241 US servers for WOW. How much fail of a Wow killer do you want ?
Aion was the latest one to challange, or wasn't that Final Fantasy ? Or wasn' that Lineage 2 (1 US server) 5 years ago.
Millions where are thou ? Somewhere around the world... Sure, but not in my playing yard m8.
He is talking about Asian markets as well, where Aion dwarfs WoW.
this is a dumb argument, or at least very revisionary. WoW did not open with 241 servers. it built over years of patches, expansions, and word of mouth. to expect any game to try to open at that level is completely ignorant of any type of comon sense . if u think that is the definition of a successful release to compete with WoW, then u are doomed to be a complete failure in life, because if u arent imediately the best at whatever u attempt , by ur own definition, u failed. WoW had 6 years to get here, the competition cannot be evaluated till they have been given the same opprotunity to grow their brand too. in football, a successfull draft isnt measured untill 5 years after. Even WoW would have been considered a failure after 1 year by ur definition.
No one. Go experience the new Phasing from Cata in the various zones, cry, and understand that no one of these will ever beat WOW.
Hm, why is it that noone believes you? Because all of that is your opinion? I found other MMOs more fun than WoW. Most problem what ppl dont see is that what is mass product mostly suck. McDonald? Y ofc I enjoy it but its a horrible food if you look on every other thing than taste. Also modern music stars mostly suck, even some movies are just sad and tons of ppl love em. It just show how big consumers are ppl today! Even comedy is a pain in the ass and it wasnt... WoW just proves how ppl are d*mb these days. Thats all I'm sayin.
P.S. I love Blizz way to get ppl in - make easy leveling so you are max lvl faster, than give you tons hours of grinding so you think you actualy spend a lot of time here doing something - give you nice armor etc. And.. who would want to leave if they see "Oh maan, I did so much in WoW I dont wanna leave." Its just fear you wont be so successful in other MMOs. And you feel so powerful with all this equip what you grinded for. Equip > skill? No thx.
Is it really necessary to insult players and label them dumb for enjoying WOW? is it really that hard to believe that WOW is actually a good MMO which offers load of polished content to its players? i know it is your opinion but i still don't agree with un warranted jabs and insults. For something to sell a product has to be good. A hype is only good till you buy it and try it after that the product has to prove its worth on its own merits. And WOW has stood test of the times, i can understand the sense of insecurity it creates in players who dislike WOW.
It is quite obvious that none of these new MMORPGS are going to even make a dent on WOW subs let alone be its competitior. I know it is very hard for some players to accept and that is why we see them making fool of themselves year after year by claming any new MMO to be a WOW killer or its competitior.
Wait for few months all of these players are going to be proven wrong again. WOW has no competitior, and the only thing that will compete with it is Blizzards next MMO.
I didnt meant all ppl who play WoW are d*mb. They certainly arent. Its just how ppl blind are today that they fall for everything what other ppl do and what marketing tells them. We are just bigger and bigger sheep pack. I tried to do a topic about "comparing WoW to other MMO". Only one guy did it. Other ppl just tell what they enjoy about WoW or why is WoW so freakin good. Noone could compare.. Why? Not sure, maybe they dont have theirs opinion anymore. You almost everywhere here WoW is most successful MMO today etc.. I guess you know that media has HUGE affect on ppls minds right? So there you go.
Btw GW 2 is gona be way better game than WoW, why? Because they are just doing theirs game, not a WoW clone. And next Blizz MMO will be huge by numbers again. Why? Because Blizz has just sheeps under his hands. Ppl will play Diablo 3 even if its not new at all, ppl played SC 2 even if its SC just with a BIT improvement. Blizz is just making so much money on consumerism. So yea, Blizzard are geniuses by doing same game and make so much freakin money on it.
The reason why is WoW here so long and "Titan" is so far is probably because they just though, hey how long you think MMO industry will evolve to something else? Hmm ok that number of years, ok. So we'll do WoW till then and after other ppl will do something new we just steal it again and improve it. Again - they are briliant what they do, but also its pretty evil.
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online Playing: CS:GO
I diagree yet again. Marketing and word of mouth only goes so far. Once you log in and start playing WOW, all that marketing won't help to keep you subbed for months and years. Are you telling me that majority of players are playing WOW for years because of marketing? sorry that doesn't even make any sense. No one is foolish enough to play a MMO for months if he/she is not enjoying it. The purpose of marketing is to make them buy the product, and if players dislike the product no amount of marketing can help keep them playing.
That is why i always fail to understand the sheep logic. How can anyone be a sheep for enjoying WOW? enjoyment is something individual and free of what other tells you. One maybe a sheep because he bought WOW since it is the most popular MMO in market but if you are going to tell me hey 'he is a sheep for enjoying something he genuienly likes' then i am going to disagree.
Also i find it very ironic because GW2 is also very popular and famous right now and millions of players are going to try it, so if i use your logic i should also label all future GW2 customers as a sheep? after all its the marketing and hype and many players are just going to buy GW2 on basis of what marketing and others have told them.
See what i did there? please try to use some common sense if you are going to label WOW players as sheep because it can be very well applied to GW2 itself.
Also those ppl say other MMO sucks as hell, but they say it month after release? WTF? WoW sucked more than any other MMO month after release.. Way till those games will be old as WoW. Or they just dont try as much content as they tried at WoW and they say it suck. And also some of em need rewards.. They dont count fun as a reward..
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online Playing: CS:GO
Comments
I've never thought about it like this, maybe because I quited WoW when I reached 80. But those ppl are almost in every game. But I guess at WoW is most of em. This is realy interesting explanation. Thx for sharing. My version (which I think I've never said so far) was that Blizz let you lvl 80 easy as hell so you are not bored yet by the game, let you to grind tons of hous and when you figure out its boring as hell you already have so many stuff here you dont wanna quit. Kind similar to yours. But your explanation is way better! :P
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online
Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online
Playing: CS:GO
Guild wars 2 will the better game, sw:tor will 'compete' more as only the latter requires subs. The former can be bought and enjoyed by all MMO players alongside their standard sub game
To put everything into perspective for the DAY DREAMERS out there.
Diablo 3 will probably sell 3 times the number of copies as those "competitors" will.
I guess their initial sales number will be around 1.5 million copies (since it is a PC only market and so forget all the console sales for previous games of Bioware and expansion on expasion on expansion on expansion CD's counted for GW).
That would mean I expect Diablo 3 to sell 4 -4.5 million copies in its first month ( around 1 million more than SC2).
No doubt Diablo 3 will be the biggest PC game launch of all those ...
... and then ... even an own Blizzard game .... selling 3 times more than those "would be MMo's" will not be a serious competitor for WOW's first place playing and subscriptions.
So scrolll back to 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and repeat.: "I am a day dreamer".
In a way, all games are a 'competitor' for WoW, but... serious challengers arent even yet on the horizon, i do not see any game currently out, or in development that would encourage me to think otherwise. That isnt to say that there arent some good games going to be coming out.. i just think its laughable that with every new game that is being developed, the Hyper'chondriacs are saying its going to be the WoW killer, and its just not happening, im not even sure the people who over hype these games even believe they will, but, if even one of these 'over hyped' games had lived up to its promises .. then they'd have millions playing them, as it is though, its just pure unfiltered BS.. one of the reasons i've stopped listening to all the hype and instead, i wait and see whether the games that get released are even worth playing a free trial of.... just look at all the games that have been released, that have been hyped through the roof, and what did we get.. STO.. FFXIV, APB, DCUO, and thats just a few games off the top of my head.. WoW killers, most of these games are lucky if they even survive, forget killing off other games.. after seeing what happens when they try and create MMO's that are 'console friendly' i kind of have to wonder if the reason why so many of these games turn out to be completely rubbish, is because the hardware constraints are too limiting, though that might well be an over simplification, i can't help but wonder if it isnt a large part of the problem.
The worst looking MMOs are exclusively on PC's, and arguably the best looking MMO's are/were set to be released on consoles.
What the top end PC's can do is hardly relevant when companies want to get as many subscribers as possible. They are looking for a middle-low end PC gamer with middle-low end PC hardware, which is still behind the current gen consoles.
Making the game for console allows the company to make the PC version much more heavy- consoles are cheap and offer quite good hardware for their price so there is no reason for the company to simply cater to low-end PC gamers anymore.
And didn't you learn in history that the best indicator of the future is the past?
None of these are going to be a WoW competitor. Those who think TOR will are just silly. Bioware makes fanastic single player games, but that experience means absolutely nothing in the MMO arena. GW2 is promising, but it's unlikelly to ever approach WoW's number of subs.
There are three things an upcoming MMO has to do if they want to even come close to WoW's sub count:
1. Asian presence. WoW, Aion, all of the games sporting large sub numbers receive the vast majority of them in Aion. Asian subs account for roughly 50% of WoW's subscription numbers, and something like 75% of Aion's. No Asian client means you're tossing several million potential subscribers.
2. You cannot play WoW's game. It's almost impossible to compete with them head to head. If you want to be the second coming, you can't play their game, you need to reinvent the game. Not a niche, but your game needs to change how we think about the genre in substantial ways. If your game is similar enough to be labeled a 'WoW clone' (like SWTOR), you've already failed.
3. Console presence. There are a massive number of console players that are relatively untapped by the MMO market. DCUO and a few others are trying to tap into this population, and it's a fantastic idea. Even though DCUO doesn't seem to be really great, the console angle alone will likely give it a healthy number of subs. This aspect is why FFXIV was my vote for Biggest Disappointment of 2010. With a presence on PC, PS3, and hopefully 360, combined with the Final Fantasy name and gameplay that wasn't a WoW clone, it COULD have been a massive, massive success if they hadn't dropped the ball so hard that it fell through the floor.
Therefore, while I think games like SWTOR and GW2 will do well, I will be surprised if they even pass Aion's numbers (which was around 4.4 million, the last time I checked).
They will all compete with WoW. How successful they are at competing is yet to be seen.
hmm, i wasnt talking about the graphics, though i think your wrong in thinking that only high end PC's have better graphics capabilities than consoles - as consoles are only really comparable to an Entry level gaming PC, one of the clear reasons why games on the PC's tend to look better than they do on the various consoles, take a more recent game for instant, Black Ops, which version had the best graphics, the PC, though the XBOX didnt fare too badly there, at least.. compared to the PS3, which could only run the game at a lower resolution compared to the other 2 versions, but even so, my complaints in terms of these games is not so much the graphics, but how they are played, control interfaces need to be easy to use, and intuitive, and despite everything, i still think that the only really good MMO's are PC only, i dont see that changing.. but i do see more bad games appearing.. because of console limitations.. and developers who seem to feel the need to try and drive square pegs through round holes... the trouble is .. cut off too many 'corners' and .. FFXIV, APB, DCUO, STO...
/agree with Naxrius. I feel like that "Titan" could be one thing that creates the same level of success that WoW does. Not that TOR and GW2 will not find success as well.
Malcanis, haven't you ever heard of a case-study?
Uhh, both? "Hey GW2, you hold him while I punch him in the face and kick him in the nuts!" - TOR. Yes, TOR will be the more successful (subs-wise, at least) because of the bigger IP, big company name, and high ambition. GW2 will certainly interest many of the veteran MMO players by being "innovative", but TOR will get the newcomers - it'll replace WoW as the gateway MMO. Yes, prepare to see Chuck Norris in TOR. Unlike Blizzard, however, BioWare won't slaughter the lore just for the hell of it, so at least there will be something for RPers (who are generally more mature...).
Rofl you completely missed his point. You make scientific assumptions based on a range of results not just one. No scientist worth his salt makes an assumption based on one result. There could be many factors that you don't know about or have no control that lead to that result, or it could just have been a fluke. Repetition improves accuracy.
Seriously what gives you the idea that blizzards next mmo will be as successful as WoW. It'll probably sell more than WoW did initially but what staying power do think it'll have. Companies have been trying to replicate WoWs success for years, why is so Blizzard special. The majority of people that originally made WoW aren't even in Blizzard anymore. All they have is lots of money and a brand name which many companies have had a still failed.
Good point, just because WoW is successful, doesnt mean that Blizzards 'next' game will be, wouldnt be the first time that an experienced developer messed up, a while ago i would have said that Square-enix would have been a safe bet, but their last couple of games, FFXIV AND FFXIII both bombed, so, thats not just an IP with a cult following but a company that previously could be perceived to be capable of doing no wrong, Perhaps its because there is more choice these days, and players are a bit more 'discerning' at least, they're less likely to accept rubbish no matter what the logo on it.. Just means that having preconceptions is a bad idea..
QFT ^^
you also need to add number 4 - be incredibly casual friendly while at same time have some apparent notion of achievement . The idea of 'competing' with wow makes this almost mandatory , especially for a western market. Skilled workers and people with above average IQ make up a relatively small percentage of a population especially in the west , and hard work is generally frowned upon -its no coincidence that we refer to gold sellers as chinese generally .
The problem here is that as long as games are being made by businessmen with investments to think about , wow will always be used as the ideal business model for the dumb masses. The time seems to have gone when games were being made by real game enthusiasts wanting to make a great game.
The poster above referring to how blockbuster video has been superceded by netfix ( or lovefilm here in uk) is the one that I see as the future . An independant gamer / developer will bring something that sells from world of mouth alone will be the savour as I see it. At least in terms of having a decent game to play .
I always shake the head when someone still tries to mention Aion in one sentence with WOW.
4 US servers for Aion and ... 241 US servers for WOW. How much fail of a Wow killer do you want ?
Aion was the latest one to challange, or wasn't that Final Fantasy ? Or wasn' that Lineage 2 (1 US server) 5 years ago.
Millions where are thou ? Somewhere around the world... Sure, but not in my playing yard m8.
You can't make a PC MMO on a console, but you can make a console MMO that rivals PC MMO's.
Multi-platform games are also best looking games, aside from very few select titles on the PC. Why? Because people don't have good enough computers, but consoles take care of that problem.
Being on a console doesnt mean the game automatically has poor user interface. There is no such limitation, only wrong decisions on the developer's end. Consoles have their fair share of games with proper easy to use UI's.
No one. Go experience the new Phasing from Cata in the various zones, cry, and understand that no one of these will ever beat WOW.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
Hm, why is it that noone believes you? Because all of that is your opinion? I found other MMOs more fun than WoW. Most problem what ppl dont see is that what is mass product mostly suck. McDonald? Y ofc I enjoy it but its a horrible food if you look on every other thing than taste. Also modern music stars mostly suck, even some movies are just sad and tons of ppl love em. It just show how big consumers are ppl today! Even comedy is a pain in the ass and it wasnt... WoW just proves how ppl are d*mb these days. Thats all I'm sayin.
P.S. I love Blizz way to get ppl in - make easy leveling so you are max lvl faster, than give you tons hours of grinding so you think you actualy spend a lot of time here doing something - give you nice armor etc. And.. who would want to leave if they see "Oh maan, I did so much in WoW I dont wanna leave." Its just fear you wont be so successful in other MMOs. And you feel so powerful with all this equip what you grinded for. Equip > skill? No thx.
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online
Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online
Playing: CS:GO
Wth, Lotro 2?
"It has potential"
-Second most used phrase on existence
"It sucks"
-Most used phrase on existence
He is talking about Asian markets as well, where Aion dwarfs WoW.
i think aion could've been stronger competiton to WoW if it didnt have such higher graphics demand then wow. i could play wow on my laptop, but i could only play aion on my higher end pc. Age of Conan also considerably limited the base they could draw on for the same reasons. i know people will say those games had huge issues at launch( especially Conan) but WoW had it's share of issuse at launch too. Realistically, most people dont want , or cant afford to go out and upgrade their computers everytime a new game comes out, thus already softening the impact these potential new challengers can make. I'm not saying these games are better then WoW, or that they would've hurt WoW. i'm just saying that they did offer a moderately new twist on the tired mmo formula that maybe more people would've given a shot if they could've played them with their existing systems.
Nothing can beat WoW. WoW has a reward system like no other. No challenge for huge rewards????? a noob's paradise. WoW has guides and tutorials that walk you through the whole game. I saw a strategy guide for WoW and I was thinking that every hardcore person would buy it since it would tell them where all the looooooot is.
The only thing that MMO people should be playing is either WoW or GW2(when it is released). Since GW 2 is subscription-free there should be no reason not to buy it or try it out at the least.
WoW has history (Warcraft 1 WC2, WC3 great RTS) and that is why it would catch my eye. I am sure the majority of WoW players have not even played the RTS series but they should because it has the lore. THen again I bet that majority dont even care about the story. It is the simplicity of WoW that has made it successful and no other MMO has found out how to do it. WoW has been metamorphed and transformed many times to accomodate every child or adult. If only their graphics where changed then it would have everything.
I'm done I have to go poop.
-I am here to perform logic
this is a dumb argument, or at least very revisionary. WoW did not open with 241 servers. it built over years of patches, expansions, and word of mouth. to expect any game to try to open at that level is completely ignorant of any type of comon sense . if u think that is the definition of a successful release to compete with WoW, then u are doomed to be a complete failure in life, because if u arent imediately the best at whatever u attempt , by ur own definition, u failed. WoW had 6 years to get here, the competition cannot be evaluated till they have been given the same opprotunity to grow their brand too. in football, a successfull draft isnt measured untill 5 years after. Even WoW would have been considered a failure after 1 year by ur definition.
I didnt meant all ppl who play WoW are d*mb. They certainly arent. Its just how ppl blind are today that they fall for everything what other ppl do and what marketing tells them. We are just bigger and bigger sheep pack. I tried to do a topic about "comparing WoW to other MMO". Only one guy did it. Other ppl just tell what they enjoy about WoW or why is WoW so freakin good. Noone could compare.. Why? Not sure, maybe they dont have theirs opinion anymore. You almost everywhere here WoW is most successful MMO today etc.. I guess you know that media has HUGE affect on ppls minds right? So there you go.
Btw GW 2 is gona be way better game than WoW, why? Because they are just doing theirs game, not a WoW clone. And next Blizz MMO will be huge by numbers again. Why? Because Blizz has just sheeps under his hands. Ppl will play Diablo 3 even if its not new at all, ppl played SC 2 even if its SC just with a BIT improvement. Blizz is just making so much money on consumerism. So yea, Blizzard are geniuses by doing same game and make so much freakin money on it.
The reason why is WoW here so long and "Titan" is so far is probably because they just though, hey how long you think MMO industry will evolve to something else? Hmm ok that number of years, ok. So we'll do WoW till then and after other ppl will do something new we just steal it again and improve it. Again - they are briliant what they do, but also its pretty evil.
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online
Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online
Playing: CS:GO
I'm talking about whole thing on media - WoW is best, WoW is most "whatever" game etc. etc. Its kinda media massaging and those ppl have in subconscious that WoW is just best. You can see it even on this forum, they tell you WoW is best, most polished, but why? If you tell them other game is better because of this and this they will tell you, yea, so how it is WoW has so many players? I'm not saying everyone is like that and there is plenty of ppl who enjoy WoW.. but..
Also those ppl say other MMO sucks as hell, but they say it month after release? WTF? WoW sucked more than any other MMO month after release.. Way till those games will be old as WoW. Or they just dont try as much content as they tried at WoW and they say it suck. And also some of em need rewards.. They dont count fun as a reward..
Played: Lineage 2,Guild Wars 1 and 2, Age of Conan, Ragnarok Online, LOTRO, World of Warcraft, League of Legends, EvE online
Tried: KAL Online, Face of Mankind, ROSE online
Playing: CS:GO