That's not counting those who got the CE, or those who get the game and then decide they don't want to play after all, so in reality, they could probably make due with less than 250k. From the sales speeches I've seen the main Trion guys do (they're on the YouTubes), I seem to remember them telling their investors that MMO's were a long-term investment, and that making back the money could take a while, but that it would be profitable after a certain period of time.
Why can't people pick up even the most basic concept that if a company sells a product for $50, that they don't MAKE ANYWHERE NEAR $50 off of it?
I wasn't talking about the box sales as profit, but rather as "income" - Sure, there is money lost in distribution, box manufacturing, a cut for the retailers etc. but a lot of the sales were digital, and it was a (very) rough estimate.
The income from subs for that matter, was a rough estimate as well, since it doens't take multi-month subscriptions into account either.
My main point was that even using rough estimates like that, they still wouldn't need 500k subs to make back their money.
I must say, i think anyone who registered for Beta is probably getting included in this number. Technically, they are a registered account even if they did not pre-prder.
None-the-less, I believe this game will do well. If nothing else, it is well made and as sad as that sounds, its becoming all-too rare.
/Agree, and yep, you have to register for the forums (at least in the beta you did) in order to play. They could be meaning the "Live" forums, but they don't make that distinction. And when they don't make the distinction, I tend to believe the number includes "everybody, ever.".
Still, even if only half are actual subscribers, that's nothing to sneeze at, especially for a game without a huge IP backing it up.
Look at this point the comparisons and the BS simply needs to stop the game is not some mystery most of us have played it hands on and pretty deep into the game and most of us liked it. Unless the manged to f**k it up 50 mins to release I dont see what else needs to be said. Lets go play the frikin thing.
that's not a number that I would tout if I was a developer. Many of those accounts could be from people who were intrigued only to find out that the game wasn't for them.
Evidently there's some data saying it works with some particular audience because it seems to be a common near-release news blast for the newer MMOs.
It just doesn't feel right.
1 million accounts to date include all the people who tried the game and hated it.
1 million pre-orders would be more impressive to me.
It's just a bit slick for my taste.
I'm not a fan of it either.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
1 million accounts sounds like a nice sum. Glad all the haters are flocking to the forums again. Did they take the day off from work for head start also? :-P
that's not a number that I would tout if I was a developer. Many of those accounts could be from people who were intrigued only to find out that the game wasn't for them.
Evidently there's some data saying it works with some particular audience because it seems to be a common near-release news blast for the newer MMOs.
It just doesn't feel right.
1 million accounts to date include all the people who tried the game and hated it.
1 million pre-orders would be more impressive to me.
It's just a bit slick for my taste.
I'm not a fan of it either.
1million is not even close prolly what realy will play at launch.
Darkfall had 70k register in june 2008 and when annouced that beta starts in nov 2008, in september 2008 it reached 350k registered.
In march 2009 10k players few months later around 8k players left.
So 1 million registered say not much hehe.
Games played:AC1-Darktide'99-2000-AC2-Darktide/dawnsong2003-2005,Lineage2-2005-2006 and now Darkfall-2009..... In between WoW few months AoC few months and some f2p also all very short few weeks.
If my office is anything close to a decent sample, 1 Million subs is being pessimistic. One thing I'm sure of is that I'll enjoy playing the game once I get home from work. :-)
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
A million is a million. Good to see they at least attracted the attention of 1 million people to the point of registering. However, you do have to assume that a good portion of that million did not pre-order the game. Of course, I also know a lot of procrastinators who pre-ordered, didn't want to do beta and will wait until today to register their codes. People all over the official forums asking what to do if they preordered and didn't get their code. Talk about waiting until the last minute!
It seems very possible that by the end of headstart, there may be 500,000 or less people playing. On the plus side, the game has a lot of upside potential based on positive word of mouth. I also think that the game will have a lower than average first month churn rate. We'll just have to see how things go.
With that in mind, they know how many servers they will need to accomodate that number of people.
I believe they're up to 31 servers now?
31 x 50k = 1.5 million.
It would seem that they've sold about a million boxes at this point.
While some people say this game will suffer like WAR and drop subs. I place it more in the category of WoW and believe it will blow up just like WoW did over the next year.
Trion has a great team of devs and we all know that speaks volumes as to the success of games in this genre. If devs listen, we win, they win. If devs don't listen, everyone loses. Trion has proven 1 thing above all else. They really care what their community thinks. They listen to feedback and if appropriate apply that to their game. What more could you want?
They won't have 1 million boxes sold in 4 months, let alone 1 million actives. I think that's a very rose-tainted prediction. The game is polished and that says a tremendous amount in todays age of debacle launch MMOs. I have no beef against the game, but I'm going to say that this one will go the same way as the last 4 or 5 that followed many of the same design elements, losing 70% of the initial subscribers by 90 days. I don't really see what this game is doing differently that will make the outcome be any different. Just my 2 cents.
Why wouldn't they. All other mmso pretty much suck right now and are getting older as we speak. If Warhammer Online lasted this long this game will most certainly be around for a long time with people playing it.
Don't get me wrong, I think the game will be profitable. I'm not saying it will be free to play or anything or shut down, but 1 million subs just doesn't seem realistic in my opinion. The game is a very polished version of a formula that has consistantly not performed well in the last few years. The PvE is interesting with the Rift mechanics, but I think that novelty will wear off at max level, which will probably take about 4 weeks to reach for a non-casual gamer. After that it will be the end-game gear grind in instances etc. The PvP in my opinion will not have the staying power to keep people subscribed, again this is my opinion.
We saw this same forumla used in Warhammer, Age of Conan, and to an extent in Aion. All of these games have a lot in common in terms of commerical success. Usually around 500-700k initial box sales, then a rapid decline by the 60-90 day mark where roughly 70% of the player base has moved on. I think the industry has proved that MMO players in general are growing very tired of this formula, and regardless of how much money is spent by the developers, the outcome has always been the same. Warhammer is still running, but there are not many that would call it a good game today. The drastic number of server merges, consolidations, and free to play promotions for lower levels indicate that I think.
I say this as someone who has guild members planning on starting to play this game today with the head start, and most of them are looking at Rift as a short term filler game.
The reason people left these games were mostly because they were laggy, grindy, buggy games at the time. The systems didn't work, the games released very unfinished, and they suffered greatly because of it. Trion also hasn't hyped their game up like Paul Barnett did for WAR.
Using your guild members to create a blanket statement for the rest of your post is silly. I say this as someone who won't even be buying RIFT as I'm just going to entertain myself with DA 2, Crysis 2, and Portal 2 for the next 6 months.
Originally posted by Copeland They know how many people have bought the game.With that in mind, they know how many servers they will need to accomodate that number of people.I believe they're up to 31 servers now?31 x 50k = 1.5 million.It would seem that they've sold about a million boxes at this point.While some people say this game will suffer like WAR and drop subs. I place it more in the category of WoW and believe it will blow up just like WoW did over the next year.Trion has a great team of devs and we all know that speaks volumes as to the success of games in this genre. If devs listen, we win, they win. If devs don't listen, everyone loses. Trion has proven 1 thing above all else. They really care what their community thinks. They listen to feedback and if appropriate apply that to their game. What more could you want?
50k people per server? There is no way they are packing each server with 50k people. Even 10k is possible, but I was thinking more along the lines of 5k per server. I think they want the servers packed with people, and then they'll open more servers as needed.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
that's not a number that I would tout if I was a developer. Many of those accounts could be from people who were intrigued only to find out that the game wasn't for them.
Not only this, but this reminds me of how WAR started. Let's see if Rift doesnt become one of the PvE-centric lawn-darts that every other mainstream mmo became in the last 6-years.
Originally posted by lizardbones Originally posted by Copeland They know how many people have bought the game.With that in mind, they know how many servers they will need to accomodate that number of people.I believe they're up to 31 servers now?31 x 50k = 1.5 million.It would seem that they've sold about a million boxes at this point.While some people say this game will suffer like WAR and drop subs. I place it more in the category of WoW and believe it will blow up just like WoW did over the next year.Trion has a great team of devs and we all know that speaks volumes as to the success of games in this genre. If devs listen, we win, they win. If devs don't listen, everyone loses. Trion has proven 1 thing above all else. They really care what their community thinks. They listen to feedback and if appropriate apply that to their game. What more could you want?
50k people per server? There is no way they are packing each server with 50k people. Even 10k is possible, but I was thinking more along the lines of 5k per server. I think they want the servers packed with people, and then they'll open more servers as needed.
SOE could do 5k on their old EQ servers. The new blade technology is quite a bit more powerful. It can accomodate 50-75k per server.
That's not counting those who got the CE, or those who get the game and then decide they don't want to play after all, so in reality, they could probably make due with less than 250k. From the sales speeches I've seen the main Trion guys do (they're on the YouTubes), I seem to remember them telling their investors that MMO's were a long-term investment, and that making back the money could take a while, but that it would be profitable after a certain period of time.
Why can't people pick up even the most basic concept that if a company sells a product for $50, that they don't MAKE ANYWHERE NEAR $50 off of it?
I wasn't talking about the box sales as profit, but rather as "income" - Sure, there is money lost in distribution, box manufacturing, a cut for the retailers etc. but a lot of the sales were digital, and it was a (very) rough estimate.
The income from subs for that matter, was a rough estimate as well, since it doens't take multi-month subscriptions into account either.
My main point was that even using rough estimates like that, they still wouldn't need 500k subs to make back their money.
Then your data, and the way to reach it, is deceptive at best. You assume(that's all any of us can do) that the game actually COST them 50 million, as in, 50 million bucks is completely gone. Then you take INCOME(which $50 a box is STILL NOT NEARLY what they actually get back as REVENUE, let alone PROFIT), to make the point that they'll have minimal trouble paying the $50 million dollar debt(which is growing via interest and investor returns) back.
I don't disagree that 250k subs would be a success that will allow them to pay it all back in due time, but those numbers you used were... just really really bad.
that's not a number that I would tout if I was a developer. Many of those accounts could be from people who were intrigued only to find out that the game wasn't for them.
Not only this, but this reminds me of how WAR started. Let's see if Rift doesnt become one of the PvE-centric lawn-darts that every other mainstream mmo became in the last 6-years.
It always had pve centric game play. Let's not try to paint it for something that it never was going for.
It will have pvp but it's not a 'pvp' game.
Like Skyrim? Need more content? Try my Skyrim mod "Godfred's Tomb."
that's not a number that I would tout if I was a developer. Many of those accounts could be from people who were intrigued only to find out that the game wasn't for them.
Actually it's not all that bad, seeing as how a game like TOR that has been hyped up anticipated for years doesn't even have 1 million forum accounts yet.
that's not a number that I would tout if I was a developer. Many of those accounts could be from people who were intrigued only to find out that the game wasn't for them.
Actually it's not all that bad, seeing as how a game like TOR that has been hyped up anticipated for years doesn't even have 1 million forum accounts yet.
It good i will give you that but comparing it to ToR is problematic.
First off ToR hasn't really done any hyping of sorts. At least not to the extent Rift has. I don't recall any ads for ToR on this site. Also they are nearing that goal today, less then 500 people need to register to get to 1M.
Rift has had time in open beta, where ToR has not.
Rift has had a chance for people to get to play the game, ToR has not
Thats not to bash on Rift, its' a good score, but comparing it to ToR isn't really fair when ToR at that same time will most likely have a lot more then that.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
For a game that a tiny blip on the radar less than 6 months ago, from a new developer, not based on an exisiting IP or having a pre-determined fan base, 1 million registered accounts is impressive.
It does not mean anything in relation to sales, success or rentention but it is still impressive.
I don't say it lightly, I think retention will not be too big a factor with this company, they have showed a level of customer service that is to say the least uncommon in MMO's today. Of course some will play the game not realizing what it is, and some will play hoping it evolves to something else, but the ones who like it for what it is, won't find any reason to leave, and i think that is a bulk of the community, considering the amount of communication between the customers and the developers.
that's not a number that I would tout if I was a developer. Many of those accounts could be from people who were intrigued only to find out that the game wasn't for them.
Actually it's not all that bad, seeing as how a game like TOR that has been hyped up anticipated for years doesn't even have 1 million forum accounts yet.
Somehow, I bet the number of forum registrations for Rift BEFORE ANY KIND OF BETA probably wasn't so close to a million. Or 5,000, for that matter.
Comments
I wasn't talking about the box sales as profit, but rather as "income" - Sure, there is money lost in distribution, box manufacturing, a cut for the retailers etc. but a lot of the sales were digital, and it was a (very) rough estimate.
The income from subs for that matter, was a rough estimate as well, since it doens't take multi-month subscriptions into account either.
My main point was that even using rough estimates like that, they still wouldn't need 500k subs to make back their money.
http://machineborn.guildportal.com - Now recruiting players!
I have to agree - it seems way too high for me as well (though they did just update the post and say its "up to date" - whatever that means....)
If that's the case - Im glad Im working till late this afternoon. Servers will be a mess for the first 3-4 hours
/Agree, and yep, you have to register for the forums (at least in the beta you did) in order to play. They could be meaning the "Live" forums, but they don't make that distinction. And when they don't make the distinction, I tend to believe the number includes "everybody, ever.".
Still, even if only half are actual subscribers, that's nothing to sneeze at, especially for a game without a huge IP backing it up.
Look at this point the comparisons and the BS simply needs to stop the game is not some mystery most of us have played it hands on and pretty deep into the game and most of us liked it. Unless the manged to f**k it up 50 mins to release I dont see what else needs to be said. Lets go play the frikin thing.
I'm not a fan of it either.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
1 million accounts sounds like a nice sum. Glad all the haters are flocking to the forums again. Did they take the day off from work for head start also? :-P
It's a good start.
I'm expecting LOTRO type numbers from this game, as I feel it's of the same vein. It's themepark, and it's polished.
I have no doubt the game will be profitable, and to be honest, Trion has already succeeded where many more funded developers have failed.
They created a game that's actually READY to be launched.
Trion deserves every box sale and subscription thrown their way.
1million is not even close prolly what realy will play at launch.
Darkfall had 70k register in june 2008 and when annouced that beta starts in nov 2008, in september 2008 it reached 350k registered.
In march 2009 10k players few months later around 8k players left.
So 1 million registered say not much hehe.
Games played:AC1-Darktide'99-2000-AC2-Darktide/dawnsong2003-2005,Lineage2-2005-2006 and now Darkfall-2009.....
In between WoW few months AoC few months and some f2p also all very short few weeks.
If my office is anything close to a decent sample, 1 Million subs is being pessimistic. One thing I'm sure of is that I'll enjoy playing the game once I get home from work. :-)
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
A million is a million. Good to see they at least attracted the attention of 1 million people to the point of registering. However, you do have to assume that a good portion of that million did not pre-order the game. Of course, I also know a lot of procrastinators who pre-ordered, didn't want to do beta and will wait until today to register their codes. People all over the official forums asking what to do if they preordered and didn't get their code. Talk about waiting until the last minute!
It seems very possible that by the end of headstart, there may be 500,000 or less people playing. On the plus side, the game has a lot of upside potential based on positive word of mouth. I also think that the game will have a lower than average first month churn rate. We'll just have to see how things go.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
They know how many people have bought the game.
With that in mind, they know how many servers they will need to accomodate that number of people.
I believe they're up to 31 servers now?
31 x 50k = 1.5 million.
It would seem that they've sold about a million boxes at this point.
While some people say this game will suffer like WAR and drop subs. I place it more in the category of WoW and believe it will blow up just like WoW did over the next year.
Trion has a great team of devs and we all know that speaks volumes as to the success of games in this genre. If devs listen, we win, they win. If devs don't listen, everyone loses. Trion has proven 1 thing above all else. They really care what their community thinks. They listen to feedback and if appropriate apply that to their game. What more could you want?
Make a difference!
The reason people left these games were mostly because they were laggy, grindy, buggy games at the time. The systems didn't work, the games released very unfinished, and they suffered greatly because of it. Trion also hasn't hyped their game up like Paul Barnett did for WAR.
Using your guild members to create a blanket statement for the rest of your post is silly. I say this as someone who won't even be buying RIFT as I'm just going to entertain myself with DA 2, Crysis 2, and Portal 2 for the next 6 months.
He who keeps his cool best wins.
50k people per server? There is no way they are packing each server with 50k people. Even 10k is possible, but I was thinking more along the lines of 5k per server. I think they want the servers packed with people, and then they'll open more servers as needed.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Yeah, EQOA still says they have 100k registered accounts too. Registered accounts don't mean squat.
Not only this, but this reminds me of how WAR started. Let's see if Rift doesnt become one of the PvE-centric lawn-darts that every other mainstream mmo became in the last 6-years.
alot of theorycraft running rampant lol
anyways , the time draws near!! are you prepared!?
50k people per server? There is no way they are packing each server with 50k people. Even 10k is possible, but I was thinking more along the lines of 5k per server. I think they want the servers packed with people, and then they'll open more servers as needed.
SOE could do 5k on their old EQ servers. The new blade technology is quite a bit more powerful. It can accomodate 50-75k per server.
Make a difference!
I want all the Defiants! Alive if possible, if not... Wasted!!! But I want them. Send the word!
EQ still has a healthy population of about 100k. It does have a loyal following.
Make a difference!
Then your data, and the way to reach it, is deceptive at best. You assume(that's all any of us can do) that the game actually COST them 50 million, as in, 50 million bucks is completely gone. Then you take INCOME(which $50 a box is STILL NOT NEARLY what they actually get back as REVENUE, let alone PROFIT), to make the point that they'll have minimal trouble paying the $50 million dollar debt(which is growing via interest and investor returns) back.
I don't disagree that 250k subs would be a success that will allow them to pay it all back in due time, but those numbers you used were... just really really bad.
It always had pve centric game play. Let's not try to paint it for something that it never was going for.
It will have pvp but it's not a 'pvp' game.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Actually it's not all that bad, seeing as how a game like TOR that has been hyped up anticipated for years doesn't even have 1 million forum accounts yet.
"When it comes to GW2 any game is fair game"
It good i will give you that but comparing it to ToR is problematic.
First off ToR hasn't really done any hyping of sorts. At least not to the extent Rift has. I don't recall any ads for ToR on this site. Also they are nearing that goal today, less then 500 people need to register to get to 1M.
Rift has had time in open beta, where ToR has not.
Rift has had a chance for people to get to play the game, ToR has not
Thats not to bash on Rift, its' a good score, but comparing it to ToR isn't really fair when ToR at that same time will most likely have a lot more then that.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
I don't say it lightly, I think retention will not be too big a factor with this company, they have showed a level of customer service that is to say the least uncommon in MMO's today. Of course some will play the game not realizing what it is, and some will play hoping it evolves to something else, but the ones who like it for what it is, won't find any reason to leave, and i think that is a bulk of the community, considering the amount of communication between the customers and the developers.
My Thoughts on Content Locust
Somehow, I bet the number of forum registrations for Rift BEFORE ANY KIND OF BETA probably wasn't so close to a million. Or 5,000, for that matter.