An MMORPG is unique because you can play it so much, unlike a single player RPG which you finish in a month or less.
Most people won't have time to play TWO MMORPGs, and or, they won't want to pay TWO subscriptions.
So, they're gonna make a choice. Play this MMO or that MMO.
Only one at a time is gonna get ther sub fee. Again, that's MOST players. Some will do two or even three subs, but they are the minority.
That, i think, is the key point and why the MMO market is so different from the SP games market. Thus, i don't really see a lot of sub-based MMO flourishing. The top 2-3 will capture most of the market (in fact, right now, the top ONE captures most of the market).
Going F2P is a solution. The key is that there is no commitment and you cater to the game hopping crowd, and hope to get some of them to spend enough money (apparently that is easy to do, just look at DDO & LOTRO).
Did anyone believe the most expensive (presumably) MMORPG ever wouldn't change the industry? How could it not?
Whether companies try to copy the top dog has little bearing on their success (see also: the last 7 years.)
Even if ToR succeeds, F2P is clearly the place to be regardless of your company size and game quality. Do you really want to erect barriers against potential paying customers by charging them just to get in the door?
Even if ToR succeeds, how many other companies really have the budget to foot to put out a game of that size? Not many (see also: point #2.)
"What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver
DLCs are not the equivalent to subscriptions and here is why. You pay $10 for the Gray Warden Cloak of awesomeness (heh, it's been a while since I watched my husband play through DA:O but the exact item/quest details are nor necessary to my point). Forevermore (or as long as Bioware allows), you have access to that content. You pay $15 to play your third alt in two months. You finish the storyline on that alt and cancel your sub because you're finished playing for now. Two months later you want to pop in on that alt - whoops, that's another $15! Just to see the character again. All money transactions are not created equal, and I'm not making things up when I say that a not insignificant number of SPRPG fans do NOT want to pay a sub just to continue the KOTOR story. Why do they matter? Because you won't get to multimillions of subs solely by cannibalizing the existing MMO market. You need conversions to the long-term sub model. I genuinely don't think SWTOR is gonna get them. It will undoubtedly sell like gangbusters, though.
I'm not saying they are the same. My point is that there are those willing to spend more money than just purchasing the game. Add to that the fact it isn't any mystery the game will have a subscription and regardless the gamer we all know at this point how it goes with mmorpgs so I don't see the subscription being an issue at this point.
Will it stop some from purchasing the game? Maybe, not enough to be significant though. There simply is too much interest in this game due to the ip and the company behind the game.
What are you basing your suppositions on? I posted that these were my suspicions and thoughts, yet you seem certain. You have access to knowledge I do not? Please, share with the class!
Also, I did not suggest the subscription fee would be a surprise to people buying the game. And I'm not even suggesting that the subscription will prevent people from buying it. I do know for a fact that people are on these very interwebs lamenting that Bioware did not just make KOTOR 3 through 6 rather than bundle them into an MMO. If you have some kind of numerical estimate to show that this is such a minority as to not be a concern, I'd love to know.
I'll just re-iterate: most people who don't play MMOs today, don't do so for a reason. They won't be swayed by Bioware telling them about all the cool multiplayer things they will be able to do in-game, for a subscription fee. So, from what pool will new subscriptions come?
There are over 1 billion estimated gamers in the world. 46 million of those are US mmo players.
The Star Wars franchise has earned over 22 billion dollars.
The original KOTOR made by Bioware (KOTOR II was not) sold over 1.5 million copies on the xbox alone.
Bioware has sold more than 10 million copies of ME, DA and KOTOR franchises combined.
Stop living inside your box for a minute and think outside it for once.
Hey, that's very interesting and yet manages not to shed any light whatsoever on what percentage of the undoubtedly tens of millions who will buy SWTOR will actually be subscribed in 3 months let alone a year. You haven't even shown correlation, let alone causation.
I think you may have been so eager to make your point you didn't read the multiple points where I said that initial sales weren't a number I questioned at all, and that I in fact expect them to be insanely high?
Gosh there are headshaking, facepalming posts in threads like this too much of the time.
I think there will always be some company with a shceme to beat the leader in the area. So if TOR fails, another group will think they can find the holy grail. And from how gamers enjoy gaming, a huge sandbox mmo just wouldn't bring in the numbers a themepark would, in my opinion.
If it does well, I'd expect F2P games to spring up very similar to it.
obviouslyu stopped paying attention months ago if u think pvp is only end game activity. Also this game will have raids and instances jus tlike wow. And no gw the origional was almost all instanced u went from one instanced area to another gw 2 will be no diffrent.
Oh and gw 2 maybe have areas u wander up to and pickup quests to kill the things in city or town or area but they are not getting rid of quests altogether lol. They are gonna have content much like rifts where u wander up and the town is on fire and u have to put out fires and ifght off the enemy just like rifts.
I have read up on it u can say its diffrent much more innovative but its not. The origional was once instance area after another and gw 2 wont be any diffrent that said if u like it so be it.
I just thinnk its funny that the people who rip tor dont even have all the facts or information. When the people who play and review games for a living are raving about how smooth this game plays when its 6 months from release and how pretty the graphics are and how much they have improved since last time they saw them ill believe them.
Id rather take the person views of people who played the game vs a video set from a camcorder 30-100 feet away an day.
But please at least get up to date on tor before u say its not gonna have anythign at end game but pvp lol. Tor devs have stated it will have everything all mmos have at end game like raids and instances and even quests and things to do other then raids.
Just because u stopped paying attention a yr ago doesnt make your opinion correct or even informed.
Gosh there are headshaking, facepalming posts in threads like this too much of the time.
I think there will always be some company with a shceme to beat the leader in the area. So if TOR fails, another group will think they can find the holy grail. And from how gamers enjoy gaming, a huge sandbox mmo just wouldn't bring in the numbers a themepark would, in my opinion.
If it does well, I'd expect F2P games to spring up very similar to it.
And exactly how many AAA sandbox MMORPGs have launched after WoW? Every single MMO since WoW has been the same crap with a twist in different settings. Ultima Online was very popular in 90's and Eve is doing great for an indie game.
Of course SW:ToR will sell huge amounts of boxes in its first months; not because what it is but what people expect it to be. The same happened with WAR, Aion and lately with Rift.
Why would a WoW player quit WoW for something more or less the same? More important question is why would anyone who dislikes WoW, and especially what it has become, for something alike WoW?
I'm not saying a new version of UO would be a smash hit, but certainly a game that isn't a two month run-through for a counter-strike matches will have a market.
DLCs are not the equivalent to subscriptions and here is why. You pay $10 for the Gray Warden Cloak of awesomeness (heh, it's been a while since I watched my husband play through DA:O but the exact item/quest details are nor necessary to my point). Forevermore (or as long as Bioware allows), you have access to that content. You pay $15 to play your third alt in two months. You finish the storyline on that alt and cancel your sub because you're finished playing for now. Two months later you want to pop in on that alt - whoops, that's another $15! Just to see the character again. All money transactions are not created equal, and I'm not making things up when I say that a not insignificant number of SPRPG fans do NOT want to pay a sub just to continue the KOTOR story. Why do they matter? Because you won't get to multimillions of subs solely by cannibalizing the existing MMO market. You need conversions to the long-term sub model. I genuinely don't think SWTOR is gonna get them. It will undoubtedly sell like gangbusters, though.
I'm not saying they are the same. My point is that there are those willing to spend more money than just purchasing the game. Add to that the fact it isn't any mystery the game will have a subscription and regardless the gamer we all know at this point how it goes with mmorpgs so I don't see the subscription being an issue at this point.
Will it stop some from purchasing the game? Maybe, not enough to be significant though. There simply is too much interest in this game due to the ip and the company behind the game.
What are you basing your suppositions on? I posted that these were my suspicions and thoughts, yet you seem certain. You have access to knowledge I do not? Please, share with the class!
Also, I did not suggest the subscription fee would be a surprise to people buying the game. And I'm not even suggesting that the subscription will prevent people from buying it. I do know for a fact that people are on these very interwebs lamenting that Bioware did not just make KOTOR 3 through 6 rather than bundle them into an MMO. If you have some kind of numerical estimate to show that this is such a minority as to not be a concern, I'd love to know.
I'll just re-iterate: most people who don't play MMOs today, don't do so for a reason. They won't be swayed by Bioware telling them about all the cool multiplayer things they will be able to do in-game, for a subscription fee. So, from what pool will new subscriptions come?
There are over 1 billion estimated gamers in the world. 46 million of those are US mmo players.
The Star Wars franchise has earned over 22 billion dollars.
The original KOTOR made by Bioware (KOTOR II was not) sold over 1.5 million copies on the xbox alone.
Bioware has sold more than 10 million copies of ME, DA and KOTOR franchises combined.
Stop living inside your box for a minute and think outside it for once.
Hey, that's very interesting and yet manages not to shed any light whatsoever on what percentage of the undoubtedly tens of millions who will buy SWTOR will actually be subscribed in 3 months let alone a year. You haven't even shown correlation, let alone causation. I think you may have been so eager to make your point you didn't read the multiple points where I said that initial sales weren't a number I questioned at all, and that I in fact expect them to be insanely high?
Hey you asked what pool will could suscribers come from and I gave you figures. there are 46 million mmo players out there in the US alone and if you take away WoW's players, that still leaves 42 million playing some type of MMO. Or maybe you wanted to know how many are willing to pay for something Star Wars or Bioware/KOTOR related and I gave you those figures.
And now you're telling me what you really wanted was to know how many will keep playing after 3 months? Come on now stop being so elusive. Or do you think WoW gained all those subs from either players following their IP or current mmo players from older mmos...I hate to break it to you but they got them from several demographics.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
People underestimate Bioware Fans. Bioware has the same following like Blizzard before they made wow huge without ton of wc 3, diablo 2 fans and so on and they couldnt launch good.
And please if a Star Wars Licence + Bioware+ EA as publisher cant pull it off to take a hit on blizzard than the mmorpg Genre is doomed. I´m willing to buy 5 Boxed to get rid off WoW as a role model.
It still amazed me that people still think this game will get millions. Pesonally, I thnk it will be lucky to have a million, maybe a million and a half. I don't think it is going to revolutionize anything considering there is nothing revolutionary about it. SWG never had millions of Starwars fans go play a Starwars game before, why would they do so now ? Just alot of hype, nothing more.
Supposedly they break even at 500K, which is still a big number for any game that is not WoW.
But of course they don't want to break even, they want to make some serious profits, which will take a million plus subs.
Im not sure the SWG comparison is valid.
The article pointed out all the differences between ToR and SWG, basically saying, this isn't anything like SWG at all.
Both games are based on Star Wars, and that's where the similarties stop.
For example, in SWG everyone wanted to play a Jedi, but you couldn't till you leveled up every skill. Ugh!
You can play a Jedi right out of the box with ToR.
Totally understand it did not play like SWG but it is still part of the starwars ip. I think the game will do well but I don't think TOR will change the way mmos are made one bit.
So SWTOR is a class themepark with voice overs and a story in it..
Everquest 2.
If it works, it will be enjoyed by people, but it WONT beat WoW, it just wont, to think it will is talking crazy, world of warcraft is the juggernaught, world of warcraft will kill world of warcraft, nothing else.
I somewhat agree that if TOR can't sweep up the subs from WoW, and makes a nice swan dive into the bargain bucket at your local wallmart/asda, then perhaps more developers will target the sandbox gamers group knowing that a good sandbox won't get as many players, but will secure a lasting base, the likes of which other themeparks cannot.
It still amazed me that people still think this game will get millions. Pesonally, I thnk it will be lucky to have a million, maybe a million and a half. I don't think it is going to revolutionize anything considering there is nothing revolutionary about it. SWG never had millions of Starwars fans go play a Starwars game before, why would they do so now ? Just alot of hype, nothing more.
It's perfectly reasonable that the game could do well. A lot of mediocre things in all of entertainment does well commercially.
I think that's what makes a lot of people upset about some of the zealot Star Wars fans here. Because some of them are taking whatever side SWTOR is on, simply based on the fact that it's Star Wars. Had SWTOR been the complete oppesite, they would have defended that. That's the bad side of fanboys. They become blind, and in the process actually hurt the game themselves, much like the Star Wars fans who begged and pleaed on forums, in comments sections, in polls about jedis jedis jedis jedis. LucasArts will give into fanservice if it makes them more money. This is absolute truth.
SWTOR like all other games should be judged by the standards of it's gameplay, but no. It's getting a lot more chances from certain parts of the community simply because of it's name, and that's frustrating, because even if this game then would be the new WoW, it would be just changing one evil to another.
This does not look like the change we have been looking for. It's more quest, more grind, more experiences that draw people away. asking people to go to groups, making people unable to play with their friends, segregating hardcore and casual, dumping down space combat.
I don't buy the story angle either. It's nice, and Bioware are great at it, but for the end game itself? If you look at their track record they have never been good at scaling, balancing and streamlining. They were always just good RPGs with cool stories, and we forgave them for that. but playing SWTOR for end game PvP? I can't see how they can balance it - Blizzard is a superior multiplayer developer if you look at starcraft and warcraft and they couldn't balance it right. By definition I think Biowares chances are much worse, and I predict chaos, outcry and dissapointment.
You know it's funny people said this ground breaking crap was going to happen with other game releases, yet ironically it didn't happen. Why expect anything different from Bioware? What because they used to make great RPG's?
People praised Warhammer, flop. People praised AoC, flop. People praised Darkfail for nearly 10 years, flop. People praised game after game and in the end no one cared. Can you people seriously just wait for once till a game is full release and maybe just maybe you wont have your expectations crushed on what the game is really like? Mean seriously, doesn't it sound more logical to play and test the game first to see if you yourself like it above assuming it's like the holy damn grail till you finally play it and find it's nothing new?
When did you start playing "old school" MMO's. World Of Warcraft?
there are 46 million mmo players out there in the US alone and if you take away WoW's players, that still leaves 42 million playing some type of MMO.
Is this true? Where are those figures from? Not disputeing just wondering. 300m population, around half of those are female, approximately 40m under the age of 10 and 30m over 70. Estimated total number of bb connections in the US is133m which includes all business connections. I'm not convinced of the 46m mmo players in the US alone.
----- The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
It still amazed me that people still think this game will get millions. Pesonally, I thnk it will be lucky to have a million, maybe a million and a half. I don't think it is going to revolutionize anything considering there is nothing revolutionary about it. SWG never had millions of Starwars fans go play a Starwars game before, why would they do so now ? Just alot of hype, nothing more.
It's perfectly reasonable that the game could do well. A lot of mediocre things in all of entertainment does well commercially.
I think that's what makes a lot of people upset about some of the zealot Star Wars fans here. Because some of them are taking whatever side SWTOR is on, simply based on the fact that it's Star Wars. Had SWTOR been the complete oppesite, they would have defended that. That's the bad side of fanboys. They become blind, and in the process actually hurt the game themselves, much like the Star Wars fans who begged and pleaed on forums, in comments sections, in polls about jedis jedis jedis jedis. LucasArts will give into fanservice if it makes them more money. This is absolute truth.
SWTOR like all other games should be judged by the standards of it's gameplay, but no. It's getting a lot more chances from certain parts of the community simply because of it's name, and that's frustrating, because even if this game then would be the new WoW, it would be just changing one evil to another.
This does not look like the change we have been looking for. It's more quest, more grind, more experiences that draw people away. asking people to go to groups, making people unable to play with their friends, segregating hardcore and casual, dumping down space combat.
I don't buy the story angle either. It's nice, and Bioware are great at it, but for the end game itself? If you look at their track record they have never been good at scaling, balancing and streamlining. They were always just good RPGs with cool stories, and we forgave them for that. but playing SWTOR for end game PvP? I can't see how they can balance it - Blizzard is a superior multiplayer developer if you look at starcraft and warcraft and they couldn't balance it right. By definition I think Biowares chances are much worse, and I predict chaos, outcry and dissapointment.
Personally myself i don't care if it "beats" wow or not, nor how many it gets. What i want is a server with enough people to have fun with. The story element looks fun, i like the classes and evverything in it.
What i don't like is when people jump from another game to bash it with inaccurate information. Which i'm sure anyone can attest to. most of the "ahem" fights starts when someone comes in and starts saying things like it's a single player game that will be dead in a week because Bioware is game company that doesn't know what they are doing and have lost their way.
This is worst then the fanboys who counter it. Thats just looking to cause trouble. Usually if someone asks nicely the question gets answered either by me or MMO.Maverik or some other person with info. It's when people start with something similar to your last paragraph that it gets a tad bit...annoying. Your prejuding before you played the game or before its out. You talk about others being fanboyish when all your doing in this article is saying how things are mediocre or whatever, what exact response do you expect from people who follow the game when you say things like that? yeah i agree with you? no...what you want is someone to response in a negative way...We all know what that is.
Frankly i don't know how well this game will play, but i've been dying for an MMO to have a story i can get into, I don't need all the fancy smashy innovative features. I need a game with a good story that i can get into...if you like that sort of thing great. If you don't, well there are other games.
I will leave it at that.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
there are 46 million mmo players out there in the US alone and if you take away WoW's players, that still leaves 42 million playing some type of MMO.
Is this true? Where are those figures from? Not disputeing just wondering. 300m population, around half of those are female, approximately 40m under the age of 10 and 30m over 70. Estimated total number of bb connections in the US is133m which includes all business connections. I'm not convinced of the 46m mmo players in the US alone.
Maybe he has the numbers from some article surrounding farmville and such games?
I don't know about others, but to me it's not about if TOR is a raving success will it be the new mold to shape future mmos. I explained this in my first statement. I read the article and it's more about how devs from other developing mmos are watching if TOR (with it's A-list trifecta: 1. Experienced developers 2. Big budget 3. Hot IP) will be successful as a mmo or not.
If not then some in the article have already stated that certain mmo projects will get cancelled and some will get re-evaluated and streamlined. AKA cutting back on investing in the mmo genre.
If it proves to be successful it will help to revitalize the mmo industry with new projects (NOT TOR CLONES) and keep current projects greenlit. AKA continuing to invest in the mmo genre.
That was the jux of the article. Not if TOR can top WoW. Nor if it will serve as the next base for mmo cloning. The other thing they are looking for is if TOR can draw in more people to the mmo genre (sort of like WoW did) and stop the cannibalism of the current base of players between mmos. Expand the numbers and not just migrate them. But leave it to people here to take this out of context and blow this into something that the article was clearly not meant to be. A devs next meal ticket to copy and paste...
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
It will depend on when it releases, if it is released in a MMO lull period meaning no WoW expansion, Guild Wars 2 is not out, ect ect then it will probably get a 1 million to try it, however keeping those and growing after that I do not see.
The MMO crowd is not clamoring for voice acted quest, talking NCP's, go look at all the threads about what people want in a MMO on this site for the last 6 years talking NCP's and voice acted quest will not be found. Also in the same veign you will not find the desire for an intrusive single player story line lopped on top of an MMO format.
I see nothing at this time that makes me really want to try this game if anything the voice over’s and the extensive use of them is a really large turn off to me.
I don't know about others, but to me it's not about if TOR is a raving success will it be the new mold to shape future mmos. I explained this in my first statement. I read the article and it's more about how devs from other developing mmos are watching if TOR (with it's A-list trifecta: 1. Experienced developers 2. Big budget 3. Hot IP) will be successful as a mmo or not.
If not then some in the article have already stated that certain mmo projects will get cancelled and some will get re-evaluated and streamlined. AKA cutting back on investing in the mmo genre.
If it proves to be successful it will help to revitalize the mmo industry with new projects (NOT TOR CLONES) and keep current projects greenlit. AKA continuing to invest in the mmo genre.
This is basically what i got from the article as well. It's not about beating wow or even doing better then wow, it's can a AAA MMO be successful in the market or is it just WoW that can be. Especially that last bit.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
And no gw the origional was almost all instanced u went from one instanced area to another gw 2 will be no diffrent.
I have read up on it u can say its diffrent much more innovative but its not. The origional was once instance area after another and gw 2 wont be any diffrent that said if u like it so be it.
I just thinnk its funny that the people who rip tor dont even have all the facts or information.
Hi pot, I'm kettle nice to meet you!
According to your previous post history, you seem to have a problem with GW2 (which is completely fine if you don't wanna play it) and some of its fans here. Now I will say this, some GW2 fans on this forum are just as misinformed as you are about the game but to spread misinformation about the game out of anger or something doesn't get your point across. We tell the actual GW2 fans here the same thing too and it's pretty annoying seeing as how there's a "All we know about GW2" sticky thread.
On topic: I do agree with what Loke666 said about getting a healthy amount of players in TOR, WoD, and GW2 since each game brings different and new things to the genre. We can only hope that whichever of these games releases first (my bet is TOR) has a very successful launch as well as continues to grow in the following months to try and change this genre up a bit for future titles.
It will depend on when it releases, if it is released in a MMO lull period meaning no WoW expansion, Guild Wars 2 is not out, ect ect then it will probably get a 1 million to try it, however keeping those and growing after that I do not see.
The MMO crowd is not clamoring for voice acted quest, talking NCP's, go look at all the threads about what people want in a MMO on this site for the last 6 years talking NCP's and voice acted quest will not be found. Also in the same veign you will not find the desire for an intrusive single player story line lopped on top of an MMO format.
I see nothing at this time that makes me really want to try this game if anything the voice over’s and the extensive use of them is a really large turn off to me.
I don't really think ToR is shooting for the MMO genre, least wise not exclusively. I think they are trying to pull their single player base in. Thats in my opinion why they went with the kotor game in the first place. It's a franchise thats well known and has done extremely well amongst BW fans.
Then you have them shooting for the star wars fans, which is why they keep saying we are giving you the iconic star wars experience. If you ever wanted to be like darth vader mowing down swarms of republic fighters, now you can.
The MMo crowd is probably the last place they are trying to hit with the grouping features.
Just the way i see it of course.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
It will depend on when it releases, if it is released in a MMO lull period meaning no WoW expansion, Guild Wars 2 is not out, ect ect then it will probably get a 1 million to try it, however keeping those and growing after that I do not see.
The MMO crowd is not clamoring for voice acted quest, talking NCP's, go look at all the threads about what people want in a MMO on this site for the last 6 years talking NCP's and voice acted quest will not be found. Also in the same veign you will not find the desire for an intrusive single player story line lopped on top of an MMO format.
I see nothing at this time that makes me really want to try this game if anything the voice over’s and the extensive use of them is a really large turn off to me.
I don't really think ToR is shooting for the MMO genre, least wise not exclusively. I think they are trying to pull their single player base in. Thats in my opinion why they went with the kotor game in the first place. It's a franchise thats well known and has done extremely well amongst BW fans.
Then you have them shooting for the star wars fans, which is why they keep saying we are giving you the iconic star wars experience. If you ever wanted to be like darth vader mowing down swarms of republic fighters, now you can.
The MMo crowd is probably the last place they are trying to hit with the grouping features.
Just the way i see it of course.
Blizzard sees it the same way. There's a good article from gamespot where they talk about it, how the devs from Blizzard are excited for TOR and believe that it will bring a lot of new players to the genre.
DLCs are not the equivalent to subscriptions and here is why. You pay $10 for the Gray Warden Cloak of awesomeness (heh, it's been a while since I watched my husband play through DA:O but the exact item/quest details are nor necessary to my point). Forevermore (or as long as Bioware allows), you have access to that content. You pay $15 to play your third alt in two months. You finish the storyline on that alt and cancel your sub because you're finished playing for now. Two months later you want to pop in on that alt - whoops, that's another $15! Just to see the character again. All money transactions are not created equal, and I'm not making things up when I say that a not insignificant number of SPRPG fans do NOT want to pay a sub just to continue the KOTOR story. Why do they matter? Because you won't get to multimillions of subs solely by cannibalizing the existing MMO market. You need conversions to the long-term sub model. I genuinely don't think SWTOR is gonna get them. It will undoubtedly sell like gangbusters, though.
I'm not saying they are the same. My point is that there are those willing to spend more money than just purchasing the game. Add to that the fact it isn't any mystery the game will have a subscription and regardless the gamer we all know at this point how it goes with mmorpgs so I don't see the subscription being an issue at this point.
Will it stop some from purchasing the game? Maybe, not enough to be significant though. There simply is too much interest in this game due to the ip and the company behind the game.
What are you basing your suppositions on? I posted that these were my suspicions and thoughts, yet you seem certain. You have access to knowledge I do not? Please, share with the class!
Also, I did not suggest the subscription fee would be a surprise to people buying the game. And I'm not even suggesting that the subscription will prevent people from buying it. I do know for a fact that people are on these very interwebs lamenting that Bioware did not just make KOTOR 3 through 6 rather than bundle them into an MMO. If you have some kind of numerical estimate to show that this is such a minority as to not be a concern, I'd love to know.
I'll just re-iterate: most people who don't play MMOs today, don't do so for a reason. They won't be swayed by Bioware telling them about all the cool multiplayer things they will be able to do in-game, for a subscription fee. So, from what pool will new subscriptions come?
There are over 1 billion estimated gamers in the world. 46 million of those are US mmo players.
The Star Wars franchise has earned over 22 billion dollars.
The original KOTOR made by Bioware (KOTOR II was not) sold over 1.5 million copies on the xbox alone.
Bioware has sold more than 10 million copies of ME, DA and KOTOR franchises combined.
Stop living inside your box for a minute and think outside it for once.
Hey, that's very interesting and yet manages not to shed any light whatsoever on what percentage of the undoubtedly tens of millions who will buy SWTOR will actually be subscribed in 3 months let alone a year. You haven't even shown correlation, let alone causation. I think you may have been so eager to make your point you didn't read the multiple points where I said that initial sales weren't a number I questioned at all, and that I in fact expect them to be insanely high?
Hey you asked what pool will could suscribers come from and I gave you figures. there are 46 million mmo players out there in the US alone and if you take away WoW's players, that still leaves 42 million playing some type of MMO. Or maybe you wanted to know how many are willing to pay for something Star Wars or Bioware/KOTOR related and I gave you those figures.
And now you're telling me what you really wanted was to know how many will keep playing after 3 months? Come on now stop being so elusive. Or do you think WoW gained all those subs from either players following their IP or current mmo players from older mmos...I hate to break it to you but they got them from several demographics.
I haven't moved a single goalpost; check my post history on this very thread and you will see I have been asserting the exact same thing from the very beginning. Sorry if that's too obtuse for you. I've ALSO posted about the difference between WoW's release and the current state of MMOs, namely being that WoW did NOT pull from a pool of GAMERS, let alone Single-Player RPG fans, but non-gamers, RTS fans from Blizzard's current offerings (the closest parallel you can link to Bioware's existing fanbase).
What is different betwen 2004 and 2011 aside from 7 years? Options. In 2004, if you wanted to play an MMO, you were hardcoring it up in UO or AC or EQ most likely. Today, you can solo your way to max in WoW, LOTRO, CoX, Rift, AoC, FFXI, GW, EQII, etc. etc. So, if someone isn't playing an MMO right this second, it is likely not due to lack of availability, but rather due to an objection with the current state of MMOs - whether that be subscription fees, the multiplayer aspect full stop, lack of storyline, or any number of other factions.
I'll repeat: the chances that someone - especially a gamer as those were the figures you listed - is not playing a SUBSCRIPTION MMO today simply because they haven't heard of one or haven't had the opportunity to is very slim. That's my "guess". You may come to some other conclusion based on the pre-2004 MMO landscape and you're welcome to it and hey, you could be right. We can only wait and see, no?
If storyline is the only "it" factor that is keeping non-MMO gamers from subscribing to MMOs, then SWTOR has it made in the shade. If the factor is the subscription fee, or the multiplayer necessity [yes, tell a solely SP fan they can't access some of the game (arguably some of the most fun parts of the game) until they assemble a team of 5], or some other factor, and my "guess" will be borne out in the subscription numbers.
I do read non-MMO forums, though, and one sentiment I have seen more than once (I certainly wouldn't put a statistic to it, which is why at best I have always ever said I think it is a "not insignificant" number - not a "majority" or even "half" or "most") is, "I wish Bioware had just made KOTOR 3."
So, maybe the majority of gamers out there are just waiting for an excuse to pay a subscription based on the SW IP and Bioware's incredible brand name. Maybe!
Even if ToR succeeds, F2P is clearly the place to be regardless of your company size and game quality. Do you really want to erect barriers against potential paying customers by charging them just to get in the door?
That depends. If your'e successful like WoW, P2P is clearly the place to be. And yes, it's quite alrigh to erect barriers againt potential paying customers by charging them just to get in the door. There are obviously plenty of players will to pay to get in the door for a good enough game.
If you'r NOT successful enough to charge a sub, then yes, a cash shop is the place for you to be.
It will depend on when it releases, if it is released in a MMO lull period meaning no WoW expansion, Guild Wars 2 is not out, ect ect then it will probably get a 1 million to try it, however keeping those and growing after that I do not see.
The MMO crowd is not clamoring for voice acted quest, talking NCP's, go look at all the threads about what people want in a MMO on this site for the last 6 years talking NCP's and voice acted quest will not be found. Also in the same veign you will not find the desire for an intrusive single player story line lopped on top of an MMO format.
I see nothing at this time that makes me really want to try this game if anything the voice over’s and the extensive use of them is a really large turn off to me.
I don't really think ToR is shooting for the MMO genre, least wise not exclusively. I think they are trying to pull their single player base in. Thats in my opinion why they went with the kotor game in the first place. It's a franchise thats well known and has done extremely well amongst BW fans.
Then you have them shooting for the star wars fans, which is why they keep saying we are giving you the iconic star wars experience. If you ever wanted to be like darth vader mowing down swarms of republic fighters, now you can.
The MMo crowd is probably the last place they are trying to hit with the grouping features.
Just the way i see it of course.
I would agree with you except for the new (it appears to me) info about raiding and whatnot. Raiding doesn't really exist outside of the traditional MMO landscape, and is cited as one of the biggest reasons to justify a subscription fee (since they don't really exist outside of the traditional MMO landscape). I know it's turned the single-player fans I know off (however, I also know that anecdotal evidence is not data). I will be very interested in seeing how this plays out in the months to come! It just seems to me that the narrative started out very SP-oriented and is skewing heavily multiplayer as time goes on.
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That, i think, is the key point and why the MMO market is so different from the SP games market. Thus, i don't really see a lot of sub-based MMO flourishing. The top 2-3 will capture most of the market (in fact, right now, the top ONE captures most of the market).
Going F2P is a solution. The key is that there is no commitment and you cater to the game hopping crowd, and hope to get some of them to spend enough money (apparently that is easy to do, just look at DDO & LOTRO).
Sounds like an accurate article, although:
Did anyone believe the most expensive (presumably) MMORPG ever wouldn't change the industry? How could it not?
Whether companies try to copy the top dog has little bearing on their success (see also: the last 7 years.)
Even if ToR succeeds, F2P is clearly the place to be regardless of your company size and game quality. Do you really want to erect barriers against potential paying customers by charging them just to get in the door?
Even if ToR succeeds, how many other companies really have the budget to foot to put out a game of that size? Not many (see also: point #2.)
"What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver
Isn't Tabula Rasa the most expensive up to this point? Not very industry changing there, in my opinion.
Vault-Tec analysts have concluded that the odds of worldwide nuclear armaggeddon this decade are 17,143,762... to 1.
I'm not saying they are the same. My point is that there are those willing to spend more money than just purchasing the game. Add to that the fact it isn't any mystery the game will have a subscription and regardless the gamer we all know at this point how it goes with mmorpgs so I don't see the subscription being an issue at this point.
Will it stop some from purchasing the game? Maybe, not enough to be significant though. There simply is too much interest in this game due to the ip and the company behind the game.
What are you basing your suppositions on? I posted that these were my suspicions and thoughts, yet you seem certain. You have access to knowledge I do not? Please, share with the class!
Also, I did not suggest the subscription fee would be a surprise to people buying the game. And I'm not even suggesting that the subscription will prevent people from buying it. I do know for a fact that people are on these very interwebs lamenting that Bioware did not just make KOTOR 3 through 6 rather than bundle them into an MMO. If you have some kind of numerical estimate to show that this is such a minority as to not be a concern, I'd love to know.
I'll just re-iterate: most people who don't play MMOs today, don't do so for a reason. They won't be swayed by Bioware telling them about all the cool multiplayer things they will be able to do in-game, for a subscription fee. So, from what pool will new subscriptions come?
There are over 1 billion estimated gamers in the world. 46 million of those are US mmo players.
The Star Wars franchise has earned over 22 billion dollars.
The original KOTOR made by Bioware (KOTOR II was not) sold over 1.5 million copies on the xbox alone.
Bioware has sold more than 10 million copies of ME, DA and KOTOR franchises combined.
Stop living inside your box for a minute and think outside it for once.
Hey, that's very interesting and yet manages not to shed any light whatsoever on what percentage of the undoubtedly tens of millions who will buy SWTOR will actually be subscribed in 3 months let alone a year. You haven't even shown correlation, let alone causation.I think you may have been so eager to make your point you didn't read the multiple points where I said that initial sales weren't a number I questioned at all, and that I in fact expect them to be insanely high?
Gosh there are headshaking, facepalming posts in threads like this too much of the time.
I think there will always be some company with a shceme to beat the leader in the area. So if TOR fails, another group will think they can find the holy grail. And from how gamers enjoy gaming, a huge sandbox mmo just wouldn't bring in the numbers a themepark would, in my opinion.
If it does well, I'd expect F2P games to spring up very similar to it.
obviouslyu stopped paying attention months ago if u think pvp is only end game activity. Also this game will have raids and instances jus tlike wow. And no gw the origional was almost all instanced u went from one instanced area to another gw 2 will be no diffrent.
Oh and gw 2 maybe have areas u wander up to and pickup quests to kill the things in city or town or area but they are not getting rid of quests altogether lol. They are gonna have content much like rifts where u wander up and the town is on fire and u have to put out fires and ifght off the enemy just like rifts.
I have read up on it u can say its diffrent much more innovative but its not. The origional was once instance area after another and gw 2 wont be any diffrent that said if u like it so be it.
I just thinnk its funny that the people who rip tor dont even have all the facts or information. When the people who play and review games for a living are raving about how smooth this game plays when its 6 months from release and how pretty the graphics are and how much they have improved since last time they saw them ill believe them.
Id rather take the person views of people who played the game vs a video set from a camcorder 30-100 feet away an day.
But please at least get up to date on tor before u say its not gonna have anythign at end game but pvp lol. Tor devs have stated it will have everything all mmos have at end game like raids and instances and even quests and things to do other then raids.
Just because u stopped paying attention a yr ago doesnt make your opinion correct or even informed.
And exactly how many AAA sandbox MMORPGs have launched after WoW? Every single MMO since WoW has been the same crap with a twist in different settings. Ultima Online was very popular in 90's and Eve is doing great for an indie game.
Of course SW:ToR will sell huge amounts of boxes in its first months; not because what it is but what people expect it to be. The same happened with WAR, Aion and lately with Rift.
Why would a WoW player quit WoW for something more or less the same? More important question is why would anyone who dislikes WoW, and especially what it has become, for something alike WoW?
I'm not saying a new version of UO would be a smash hit, but certainly a game that isn't a two month run-through for a counter-strike matches will have a market.
Hey you asked what pool will could suscribers come from and I gave you figures. there are 46 million mmo players out there in the US alone and if you take away WoW's players, that still leaves 42 million playing some type of MMO. Or maybe you wanted to know how many are willing to pay for something Star Wars or Bioware/KOTOR related and I gave you those figures.
And now you're telling me what you really wanted was to know how many will keep playing after 3 months? Come on now stop being so elusive. Or do you think WoW gained all those subs from either players following their IP or current mmo players from older mmos...I hate to break it to you but they got them from several demographics.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
People underestimate Bioware Fans. Bioware has the same following like Blizzard before they made wow huge without ton of wc 3, diablo 2 fans and so on and they couldnt launch good.
And please if a Star Wars Licence + Bioware+ EA as publisher cant pull it off to take a hit on blizzard than the mmorpg Genre is doomed. I´m willing to buy 5 Boxed to get rid off WoW as a role model.
Supposedly they break even at 500K, which is still a big number for any game that is not WoW.
But of course they don't want to break even, they want to make some serious profits, which will take a million plus subs.
Im not sure the SWG comparison is valid.
The article pointed out all the differences between ToR and SWG, basically saying, this isn't anything like SWG at all.
Both games are based on Star Wars, and that's where the similarties stop.
For example, in SWG everyone wanted to play a Jedi, but you couldn't till you leveled up every skill. Ugh!
You can play a Jedi right out of the box with ToR.
Totally understand it did not play like SWG but it is still part of the starwars ip. I think the game will do well but I don't think TOR will change the way mmos are made one bit.Just replying about the article its self, but..
LOL
These are the developers that create our games?
So SWTOR is a class themepark with voice overs and a story in it..
Everquest 2.
If it works, it will be enjoyed by people, but it WONT beat WoW, it just wont, to think it will is talking crazy, world of warcraft is the juggernaught, world of warcraft will kill world of warcraft, nothing else.
I somewhat agree that if TOR can't sweep up the subs from WoW, and makes a nice swan dive into the bargain bucket at your local wallmart/asda, then perhaps more developers will target the sandbox gamers group knowing that a good sandbox won't get as many players, but will secure a lasting base, the likes of which other themeparks cannot.
It's perfectly reasonable that the game could do well. A lot of mediocre things in all of entertainment does well commercially.
I think that's what makes a lot of people upset about some of the zealot Star Wars fans here. Because some of them are taking whatever side SWTOR is on, simply based on the fact that it's Star Wars. Had SWTOR been the complete oppesite, they would have defended that. That's the bad side of fanboys. They become blind, and in the process actually hurt the game themselves, much like the Star Wars fans who begged and pleaed on forums, in comments sections, in polls about jedis jedis jedis jedis. LucasArts will give into fanservice if it makes them more money. This is absolute truth.
SWTOR like all other games should be judged by the standards of it's gameplay, but no. It's getting a lot more chances from certain parts of the community simply because of it's name, and that's frustrating, because even if this game then would be the new WoW, it would be just changing one evil to another.
This does not look like the change we have been looking for. It's more quest, more grind, more experiences that draw people away. asking people to go to groups, making people unable to play with their friends, segregating hardcore and casual, dumping down space combat.
I don't buy the story angle either. It's nice, and Bioware are great at it, but for the end game itself? If you look at their track record they have never been good at scaling, balancing and streamlining. They were always just good RPGs with cool stories, and we forgave them for that. but playing SWTOR for end game PvP? I can't see how they can balance it - Blizzard is a superior multiplayer developer if you look at starcraft and warcraft and they couldn't balance it right. By definition I think Biowares chances are much worse, and I predict chaos, outcry and dissapointment.
You know it's funny people said this ground breaking crap was going to happen with other game releases, yet ironically it didn't happen. Why expect anything different from Bioware? What because they used to make great RPG's?
People praised Warhammer, flop. People praised AoC, flop. People praised Darkfail for nearly 10 years, flop. People praised game after game and in the end no one cared. Can you people seriously just wait for once till a game is full release and maybe just maybe you wont have your expectations crushed on what the game is really like? Mean seriously, doesn't it sound more logical to play and test the game first to see if you yourself like it above assuming it's like the holy damn grail till you finally play it and find it's nothing new?
When did you start playing "old school" MMO's. World Of Warcraft?
Is this true? Where are those figures from? Not disputeing just wondering. 300m population, around half of those are female, approximately 40m under the age of 10 and 30m over 70. Estimated total number of bb connections in the US is133m which includes all business connections. I'm not convinced of the 46m mmo players in the US alone.
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The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
Personally myself i don't care if it "beats" wow or not, nor how many it gets. What i want is a server with enough people to have fun with. The story element looks fun, i like the classes and evverything in it.
What i don't like is when people jump from another game to bash it with inaccurate information. Which i'm sure anyone can attest to. most of the "ahem" fights starts when someone comes in and starts saying things like it's a single player game that will be dead in a week because Bioware is game company that doesn't know what they are doing and have lost their way.
This is worst then the fanboys who counter it. Thats just looking to cause trouble. Usually if someone asks nicely the question gets answered either by me or MMO.Maverik or some other person with info. It's when people start with something similar to your last paragraph that it gets a tad bit...annoying. Your prejuding before you played the game or before its out. You talk about others being fanboyish when all your doing in this article is saying how things are mediocre or whatever, what exact response do you expect from people who follow the game when you say things like that? yeah i agree with you? no...what you want is someone to response in a negative way...We all know what that is.
Frankly i don't know how well this game will play, but i've been dying for an MMO to have a story i can get into, I don't need all the fancy smashy innovative features. I need a game with a good story that i can get into...if you like that sort of thing great. If you don't, well there are other games.
I will leave it at that.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
Maybe he has the numbers from some article surrounding farmville and such games?
I don't know about others, but to me it's not about if TOR is a raving success will it be the new mold to shape future mmos. I explained this in my first statement. I read the article and it's more about how devs from other developing mmos are watching if TOR (with it's A-list trifecta: 1. Experienced developers 2. Big budget 3. Hot IP) will be successful as a mmo or not.
If not then some in the article have already stated that certain mmo projects will get cancelled and some will get re-evaluated and streamlined. AKA cutting back on investing in the mmo genre.
If it proves to be successful it will help to revitalize the mmo industry with new projects (NOT TOR CLONES) and keep current projects greenlit. AKA continuing to invest in the mmo genre.
That was the jux of the article. Not if TOR can top WoW. Nor if it will serve as the next base for mmo cloning. The other thing they are looking for is if TOR can draw in more people to the mmo genre (sort of like WoW did) and stop the cannibalism of the current base of players between mmos. Expand the numbers and not just migrate them. But leave it to people here to take this out of context and blow this into something that the article was clearly not meant to be. A devs next meal ticket to copy and paste...
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
It will depend on when it releases, if it is released in a MMO lull period meaning no WoW expansion, Guild Wars 2 is not out, ect ect then it will probably get a 1 million to try it, however keeping those and growing after that I do not see.
The MMO crowd is not clamoring for voice acted quest, talking NCP's, go look at all the threads about what people want in a MMO on this site for the last 6 years talking NCP's and voice acted quest will not be found. Also in the same veign you will not find the desire for an intrusive single player story line lopped on top of an MMO format.
I see nothing at this time that makes me really want to try this game if anything the voice over’s and the extensive use of them is a really large turn off to me.
This is basically what i got from the article as well. It's not about beating wow or even doing better then wow, it's can a AAA MMO be successful in the market or is it just WoW that can be. Especially that last bit.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
Hi pot, I'm kettle nice to meet you!
According to your previous post history, you seem to have a problem with GW2 (which is completely fine if you don't wanna play it) and some of its fans here. Now I will say this, some GW2 fans on this forum are just as misinformed as you are about the game but to spread misinformation about the game out of anger or something doesn't get your point across. We tell the actual GW2 fans here the same thing too and it's pretty annoying seeing as how there's a "All we know about GW2" sticky thread.
On topic: I do agree with what Loke666 said about getting a healthy amount of players in TOR, WoD, and GW2 since each game brings different and new things to the genre. We can only hope that whichever of these games releases first (my bet is TOR) has a very successful launch as well as continues to grow in the following months to try and change this genre up a bit for future titles.
I don't really think ToR is shooting for the MMO genre, least wise not exclusively. I think they are trying to pull their single player base in. Thats in my opinion why they went with the kotor game in the first place. It's a franchise thats well known and has done extremely well amongst BW fans.
Then you have them shooting for the star wars fans, which is why they keep saying we are giving you the iconic star wars experience. If you ever wanted to be like darth vader mowing down swarms of republic fighters, now you can.
The MMo crowd is probably the last place they are trying to hit with the grouping features.
Just the way i see it of course.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
Blizzard sees it the same way. There's a good article from gamespot where they talk about it, how the devs from Blizzard are excited for TOR and believe that it will bring a lot of new players to the genre.
I haven't moved a single goalpost; check my post history on this very thread and you will see I have been asserting the exact same thing from the very beginning. Sorry if that's too obtuse for you. I've ALSO posted about the difference between WoW's release and the current state of MMOs, namely being that WoW did NOT pull from a pool of GAMERS, let alone Single-Player RPG fans, but non-gamers, RTS fans from Blizzard's current offerings (the closest parallel you can link to Bioware's existing fanbase).
What is different betwen 2004 and 2011 aside from 7 years? Options. In 2004, if you wanted to play an MMO, you were hardcoring it up in UO or AC or EQ most likely. Today, you can solo your way to max in WoW, LOTRO, CoX, Rift, AoC, FFXI, GW, EQII, etc. etc. So, if someone isn't playing an MMO right this second, it is likely not due to lack of availability, but rather due to an objection with the current state of MMOs - whether that be subscription fees, the multiplayer aspect full stop, lack of storyline, or any number of other factions.
I'll repeat: the chances that someone - especially a gamer as those were the figures you listed - is not playing a SUBSCRIPTION MMO today simply because they haven't heard of one or haven't had the opportunity to is very slim. That's my "guess". You may come to some other conclusion based on the pre-2004 MMO landscape and you're welcome to it and hey, you could be right. We can only wait and see, no?
If storyline is the only "it" factor that is keeping non-MMO gamers from subscribing to MMOs, then SWTOR has it made in the shade. If the factor is the subscription fee, or the multiplayer necessity [yes, tell a solely SP fan they can't access some of the game (arguably some of the most fun parts of the game) until they assemble a team of 5], or some other factor, and my "guess" will be borne out in the subscription numbers.
I do read non-MMO forums, though, and one sentiment I have seen more than once (I certainly wouldn't put a statistic to it, which is why at best I have always ever said I think it is a "not insignificant" number - not a "majority" or even "half" or "most") is, "I wish Bioware had just made KOTOR 3."
So, maybe the majority of gamers out there are just waiting for an excuse to pay a subscription based on the SW IP and Bioware's incredible brand name. Maybe!
That depends. If your'e successful like WoW, P2P is clearly the place to be. And yes, it's quite alrigh to erect barriers againt potential paying customers by charging them just to get in the door. There are obviously plenty of players will to pay to get in the door for a good enough game.
If you'r NOT successful enough to charge a sub, then yes, a cash shop is the place for you to be.
I would agree with you except for the new (it appears to me) info about raiding and whatnot. Raiding doesn't really exist outside of the traditional MMO landscape, and is cited as one of the biggest reasons to justify a subscription fee (since they don't really exist outside of the traditional MMO landscape). I know it's turned the single-player fans I know off (however, I also know that anecdotal evidence is not data). I will be very interested in seeing how this plays out in the months to come! It just seems to me that the narrative started out very SP-oriented and is skewing heavily multiplayer as time goes on.