I think tor will do fine. First off vo and story in an mmo has never been done on the level tor is gonna do it. Im looking forward to it immensly.
2 as for crafting being even easier then wow thats funny. First off yoru companions will craft for u. thats because the crafting takes time to do longer then wows click and make features. They can gather materials for u but u can as well while out in the world.
3 i have a very big qustion im sure no one will actually answer . the haters will jus thate.
If u arent gonna play this game if its not the kind of game u are looking for why bash it all the time. Who im the world made it your job to convince the rest of the world to not play tor?
What is in bashing tor all the time and putting it down for u? Please id love an answer.
the truth is if u dont wanna play this game or if its not your cup of tea go away. im tired of the crap u spew.
Tor has alot of cool features im looking forward to. the companion system the choices that actually dictate how npcs and even yoru companons realt to u is something ive never seen anywhere else. Im lookng forward to bioware putting the rpg back in mmorpg.
the space thing isnt a big issue to me. it seems to be cause the same people whine about it over and over but u were never gonna get a full fledged ground based mmo and a full fledged space sim. Was never gonna happen. I like how bioware is gonna do space in tor.
Im not a huge space sim game fan. so tunnell shooter is right up my ally. If u dont like this game and arent gonna play it fine.
But no one said it was your job to convince me and others to not play tor. no idea what my not playing tor is gonna gain u anyways. Your vitriol is just making me happier u arent gonna play tor and i wont have to see u in game .
Originally posted by MADMANusa Personally I believe that TOR can change the industry just by the amounted of story telling and voice game story dialogue. It may in fact create a branch in the MMO industry. Taking the player on a more involved story arch that is unique to each class. Being able to make choices without having to read a couple of paragraphs of text (reading is boring in a MMO). I can see a more personal experience that could create a wave that others will follow. Cant beat playing a game and watching a star wars movie at the same time. It's like 8 different movies worth of video content so that is kind of cool.
That could happen. At the same time though, APB had arguably the best character customization of any game ever made, and that hasn't change the industry at all.
Vault-Tec analysts have concluded that the odds of worldwide nuclear armaggeddon this decade are 17,143,762... to 1.
If SWTOR is successful or not wont decide the future of sandbox MMOS. Indie companies will keep making sandboxes because to make a game with this status requires a Big investment, HUGE one i might add.
Hopefully SWTOR will be the one taking down WoW but it will be a slow process and i think its wrong to think that SWTORS success will be bad for small companies, its bad for the big ones.
It might even share the crown with WoW, one rulling the fantasy base type of fans the other the sci-fi one.
It still amazed me that people still think this game will get millions. Pesonally, I thnk it will be lucky to have a million, maybe a million and a half. I don't think it is going to revolutionize anything considering there is nothing revolutionary about it. SWG never had millions of Starwars fans go play a Starwars game before, why would they do so now ? Just alot of hype, nothing more.
SWG never had millions due to at the time not everyone had a pc as they were still out of the reach price wise, then you had to have a decent to great rig to play the game, then internet back at the time was not great either with plenty still using dial-up , and finally just because it was a Star Wars game and your right on with this statement "SWG never had millions of Starwars fans go play a Starwars game before, why would they do so now ?" There are people out there that like Star Wars but don't like gaming in general, so why is TOR so different that people will just drop whatever their doing and play TOR cause it's Star Wars is the question to all the rabid TOR fans out there?
Why do we need a game to compete with WOW ? E-Peen bragging rights perhaps? With the only excpetion of EVE I'm pretty much done with even trying any new MMOs coming out on the horizon, Arche Age I'll wait for reviews and a sub model before I will even touch that one, but everything else has failed in my eyes to even draw any interest, I'm tired of the same game over and over just in a new skin with slightly different mechanics, I'm tired of MMOs not being finished or polished but rushed out the door to grab a buck, I'm tired of the in your face cash shops being implemented in MMOs to empty my wallet when it could've should've been in the box to start with.
Its time for the industry to start doing something different soon or its going to see more of a exodus away from MMO's give me something for a long term outlook and give me something to do sides run a treadmill for gear,and run scripted dances (dungeons) where the hell is the non-combat activities? The social draw? The tools to foster community?
Done with my rant, and done with the mediocrity that is MMOs, its gotten old, and there is nothing left out there in the industry but a hollow, shallow husk what it could've been.
I think tor will do fine. First off vo and story in an mmo has never been done on the level tor is gonna do it. Im looking forward to it immensly.
2 as for crafting being even easier then wow thats funny. First off yoru companions will craft for u. thats because the crafting takes time to do longer then wows click and make features. They can gather materials for u but u can as well while out in the world.
3 i have a very big qustion im sure no one will actually answer . the haters will jus thate.
If u arent gonna play this game if its not the kind of game u are looking for why bash it all the time. Who im the world made it your job to convince the rest of the world to not play tor?
What is in bashing tor all the time and putting it down for u? Please id love an answer.
the truth is if u dont wanna play this game or if its not your cup of tea go away. im tired of the crap u spew.
Tor has alot of cool features im looking forward to. the companion system the choices that actually dictate how npcs and even yoru companons realt to u is something ive never seen anywhere else. Im lookng forward to bioware putting the rpg back in mmorpg.
the space thing isnt a big issue to me. it seems to be cause the same people whine about it over and over but u were never gonna get a full fledged ground based mmo and a full fledged space sim. Was never gonna happen. I like how bioware is gonna do space in tor.
Im not a huge space sim game fan. so tunnell shooter is right up my ally. If u dont like this game and arent gonna play it fine.
But no one said it was your job to convince me and others to not play tor. no idea what my not playing tor is gonna gain u anyways. Your vitriol is just making me happier u arent gonna play tor and i wont have to see u in game .
Because many people had high hopes for this game. Those hopes were squashed when the game went in the direction of WOW clone. It was a HUGE let down that a game soo many people wanted for soo long was mangled and disfigured into another bland gear grind. Most of us followed the games progress for years only to be told any hopes for a good game will be replaced by the wishes of guild Ensidia.
Now I KNOW its not a big deal for people who just love star wars and probably would play Clone Wars Adventures if thats all there were to play. BUT for those of us who did our prison sentence on WOW already, who have experienced other mmorpgs as well and would have settled for a Themepark that at least did SOMETHING different, something MEANINGFUL please dont bring the VO fluff or EZ mode crafting nonsense because its just FLUFF. I mean if you have played through this kind of themepark for years then playing TOR is going to feel like playing the same RPG for the 3000th mind numbing time.
I think there is alot of misinformation about what TOR really is from die hard fans. Trying to pass of a WOW with lightsabers game that doesnt even have space travel and pretty well copies all of the mechanics as something groundbreaking, just because it has VO is disingenuous. I think people have a right to know that your trying to pass off tin foil as a new invention. Also I comment on it because it is relevent to the topic.
I mean not even the EA shareholders are holding their breath on this one and knowing EA games I wont either.
It still amazed me that people still think this game will get millions. Pesonally, I thnk it will be lucky to have a million, maybe a million and a half. I don't think it is going to revolutionize anything considering there is nothing revolutionary about it. SWG never had millions of Starwars fans go play a Starwars game before, why would they do so now ? Just alot of hype, nothing more.
SWG never had millions due to at the time not everyone had a pc as they were still out of the reach price wise, then you had to have a decent to great rig to play the game, then internet back at the time was not great either with plenty still using dial-up , and finally just because it was a Star Wars game and your right on with this statement "SWG never had millions of Starwars fans go play a Starwars game before, why would they do so now ?" There are people out there that like Star Wars but don't like gaming in general, so why is TOR so different that people will just drop whatever their doing and play TOR cause it's Star Wars is the question to all the rabid TOR fans out there?
SWG didn't come out that long before WOW and WOW did fine reguardless of computer limitations. The reason SWG didn't do well is that it had a horrible launch, the game was barely reminisant of Starwars, the game was buggie, and SOE kept jerking the player base back and forth with nerphs/changes long before NEG.
As for Saints statement SWG may not of had millions of players at one time, but that was due to lack of player longivity. SWG certainly had millions of people who played the game even with the very public critism of the games launch and poor managment.
All that being said Firefly's general assumption I think is correct that a decade ago simply wasn't the base of players willing to play an MMO. It had taken WOW some time to build their numbers into the millions as well. Today however there is more cross over gaming, MMOs/computer gaming is more socially acceptable, and computers are a bigger part of peoples lives. So it should actually be easier for a game to reach that level of success, but that doesn't mean that a any POS game can do it. It'll take a game with a large pre-following that delivers in content and quality.
A total how to and why box sales are totally meaningless and what TOR will have to do to succeed. Basically no matter what anyone says or feels about the game, including me. Unless it attains AND HOLDS 500,000 subs for at least half a decade or so, it's pretty well going to fail or be considered a failure. If it stays over that, unlikely in my mind, then it will be considered a success to huge success depending.
And YES WAR, AOC and LOTR were all failures, big time.
You're right. It's regardless what you say or feel about the game.
Besides, I see you speculating about 500k subs for half a decade, maybe I just read those 2 articles too quickly, but I couldn't see those figures in there.
But since it's all just speculations, let's add another one, this is the one of Scott Jenning's estimations last year, where he estimated a break even point of 150 million dollar, based upon having 1 million subs for 1 year.
He didn't even include the revenues of the initial sales.
Since the required amount for reaching a decent profit is 500k, it stands to reason that also the break even point will be lower. And let's not forget the initial sales, and especially the digital sales since those make the company more profit just like it did for Trion with Rift, Mr Jenning didn't include those in his calculations. So that means the break even point is even lower than half of that 150 million dollar.
Anyway, it's all speculations anyway, only I'd like to keep with figures that have at least some foundation in rational calculations and not based upon feelings of hatred and dislike for a game, desperately wanting to see it fail for whatever vague reason someone can dream up
NB: on a sidenote, yes, that means that Blizzard is making THAT much money, bucketloads, to easily finance 10 AAA MMORPG's a year. Make it 8 AAA MMORPG's for the profits that Blizzard makes in 1 year, and all those 8 would all be automatically the most expensive AAA MMORPG's developed in all time.
And no, that kind of money isn't invested back into WoW, maybe for some small part of that money into Titan, but if Blizzard wanted or were allowed to, they could for the profit they make in 2-3 months create the best AAA themepark/sandbox/revolutionary and innovative hybrid MMORPG that 200 million dollars can make.
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS.
That's the key. To be able to break even in one year (which would actualy be good for an MMO).... $30 million would have to cover thier full operating budget to support 1 million users a year (hosting, bandwidth, storage, employee's, offices, admvertsiment & marketing) PLUS whatever cuts they have to dole out to Lucas Arts in terms of royalties (god's know what that is) plus whatever tax liabilties they have in the various areas of the world they make sales in.
Honestly, I don't even think 1 million subs is going to cut it....not without some serious additional revenue from RMT.
Note I think they could be very profitable....but I think they are going to have to hit a subscriber base that's much larger then anyone but WOW to do it.
The other thing to take into account is not just can they turn a proffit....but how much of a proffit will it be. That'll determine whether the investors see it as a success or flop. MMO's, really any entertainment product are seen as very high-risk investments.....and with development times being what they are...it's at least several years before a product you've invested in starts making ANY money back. For that type of thing.....an investors expects not just a proffit but a very high return in order for it to be considered worthwhile. If you're only seeing a 5-10% return on your investment ...you may as well go out and buy T-bills instead. I think they have to make a VERY healthy proffit for 2-4 years after release at least..in order to have been considered a good investment by anyone.
Couldn't agree more with kalinis. What is really ironic is that some of the people bashing this game will still be playing it on week one. That's exactly what happened with DCU online. The same people that could never forgive SOE for ruining their precious SWG still ended up buying DCU online while hating it. It's like battered wife's syndrome.So unfortunately we will still have to deal with some of these people after it is released.:(
As for the ones making the claim that they are just here to inform others, there is plenty of information on this game readily available from real sources, and no, your previous experience of buying crappy games doesn't count. No one with the ability to think for themselves is going to listen to someone who spews vile, so you're really wasting your time.If you were really here to inform others, you would do what we do which is to tell people to follow the links stickied and decide for themselves. Very few fans of this game think this is a WOW killer nor do we care if it becomes that.I don't care if this game is the most innovative on the market and I certainly aren't going to listen to someone that buys every piece of crap that the market offers.
The majority of the fans I'm seeing for this game are Star Wars fans and KOTOR fans, many whom have never done the MMO thing before.The ones that do have previous MMO experience are loving what this game has to offer. Some are questioning the advanced class system because they are used to the rigid structure that WOW has.(Gee, WOW vets worried that this game is different from WOW, imagine that)Are there people on the TOR forums that don't like it? Sure there is and they make their presence known all the time. Yet they are still allowed to post their hate for this game and aren't bounced off the site. I dare you to find any other MMO forum for a game that doesn't have people hating it.
A total how to and why box sales are totally meaningless and what TOR will have to do to succeed. Basically no matter what anyone says or feels about the game, including me. Unless it attains AND HOLDS 500,000 subs for at least half a decade or so, it's pretty well going to fail or be considered a failure. If it stays over that, unlikely in my mind, then it will be considered a success to huge success depending.
And YES WAR, AOC and LOTR were all failures, big time.
You're right. It's regardless what you say or feel about the game.
Besides, I see you speculating about 500k subs for half a decade, maybe I just read those 2 articles too quickly, but I couldn't see those figures in there.
But since it's all just speculations, let's add another one, this is the one of Scott Jenning's estimations last year, where he estimated a break even point of 150 million dollar, based upon having 1 million subs for 1 year.
He didn't even include the revenues of the initial sales.
Since the required amount for reaching a decent profit is 500k, it stands to reason that also the break even point will be lower. And let's not forget the initial sales, and especially the digital sales since those make the company more profit just like it did for Trion with Rift, Mr Jenning didn't include those in his calculations. So that means the break even point is even lower than half of that 150 million dollar.
Anyway, it's all speculations anyway, only I'd like to keep with figures that have at least some foundation in rational calculations and not based upon feelings of hatred and dislike for a game, desperately wanting to see it fail for whatever vague reason someone can dream up
NB: on a sidenote, yes, that means that Blizzard is making THAT much money, bucketloads, to easily finance 10 AAA MMORPG's a year. Make it 8 AAA MMORPG's for the profits that Blizzard makes in 1 year, and all those 8 would all be automatically the most expensive AAA MMORPG's developed in all time.
And no, that kind of money isn't invested back into WoW, maybe for some small part of that money into Titan, but if Blizzard wanted or were allowed to, they could for the profit they make in 2-3 months create the best AAA themepark/sandbox/revolutionary and innovative hybrid MMORPG that 200 million dollars can make.
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS.
That's the key. To be able to break even in one year (which would actualy be good for an MMO).... $30 million would have to cover thier full operating budget to support 1 million users a year (hosting, bandwidth, storage, employee's, offices, admvertsiment & marketing) PLUS whatever cuts they have to dole out to Lucas Arts in terms of royalties (god's know what that is) plus whatever tax liabilties they have in the various areas of the world they make sales in.
Honestly, I don't even think 1 million subs is going to cut it....not without some serious additional revenue from RMT.
Note I think they could be very profitable....but I think they are going to have to hit a subscriber base that's much larger then anyone but WOW to do it.
The other thing to take into account is not just can they turn a proffit....but how much of a proffit will it be. That'll determine whether the investors see it as a success or flop. MMO's, really any entertainment product are seen as very high-risk investments.....and with development times being what they are...it's at least several years before a product you've invested in starts making ANY money back. For that type of thing.....an investors expects not just a proffit but a very high return in order for it to be considered worthwhile. If you're only seeing a 5-10% return on your investment ...you may as well go out and buy T-bills instead. I think they have to make a VERY healthy proffit for 2-4 years after release at least..in order to have been considered a good investment by anyone.
Sorry GrumpyMel2, but it really does not matter what YOU think here. The financial experts at EA said 500K subscribers keeps them profitable and that really is the only number to matter. Of course they did not say how many box sales they think they will be getting (partial profit due to costs), nor how many electronic sales (pure profit), nor even what other forms of revenue they are looking into (scaling partial profit for electronic sales and partial profit for sale-able items like t-shirts). So yes, math is our friend as you said, but you sir do not have the whole equation.
All in all, I'll trust the people who know the whole situation instead of someone just guessing blindly.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
Well, theres various rumors about how much SWTOR cost to create. WoW apparently initially needed 30 Mio $, while SWTOR gets numbers up to 300 Mio $. Though its more likely that it was something like 80 Mio $.
Anyway, I dont see SWTOR as a WoW competition. Its different enough from WoW so that players who want WoW gamestyle will stay on WoW.
I see SWTOR more of a "carebear" game for people who dont usually play MMOs. Thats also a reason why I picked SWTOR as my next MMO. My time constraints no longer allow to play a "hardcore" MMO, so a "carebear" or "casual" version will have to do.
I won't disagree with you about what the article said. I don't have the magazine, just read it while browsing at the bookstore, and that was my impression.
But somewhere in there they mention that MMORPGs do have to cannabalize each other if they are subscription based, and I thnk that's true.
An MMORPG is unique because you can play it so much, unlike a single player RPG which you finish in a month or less.
Most people won't have time to play TWO MMORPGs, and or, they won't want to pay TWO subscriptions.
So, they're gonna make a choice. Play this MMO or that MMO.
Only one at a time is gonna get ther sub fee. Again, that's MOST players. Some will do two or even three subs, but they are the minority.
Oh, good RPGs can last longer than a month. Two months is a limit for me, though. After two months, only BG2 managed to be still fascinating. And I forcefully played BG2 until I couldnt see it any more, because it was so super awesome.
MMOs are different... I played Vanguard from start until autuum 2009, when everyone I grouped before had left, my guild had disbanded months before, and I couldnt get a group on ANY of my characters (and I had all levels covered).
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS.
That's the key. To be able to break even in one year (which would actualy be good for an MMO).... $30 million would have to cover thier full operating budget to support 1 million users a year (hosting, bandwidth, storage, employee's, offices, admvertsiment & marketing) PLUS whatever cuts they have to dole out to Lucas Arts in terms of royalties (god's know what that is) plus whatever tax liabilties they have in the various areas of the world they make sales in.
Honestly, I don't even think 1 million subs is going to cut it....not without some serious additional revenue from RMT.
As GMan3 also already said, you ignored the statements given by EA/BW people that 500k subs would already see a decent profit. Next to that, you didn't include the initial sales of the game which if you'd have 1 million sold units, among them digital sales and collector's editions, would also rake in quite some money.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
A total how to and why box sales are totally meaningless and what TOR will have to do to succeed. Basically no matter what anyone says or feels about the game, including me. Unless it attains AND HOLDS 500,000 subs for at least half a decade or so, it's pretty well going to fail or be considered a failure. If it stays over that, unlikely in my mind, then it will be considered a success to huge success depending.
And YES WAR, AOC and LOTR were all failures, big time.
You're right. It's regardless what you say or feel about the game.
Besides, I see you speculating about 500k subs for half a decade, maybe I just read those 2 articles too quickly, but I couldn't see those figures in there.
But since it's all just speculations, let's add another one, this is the one of Scott Jenning's estimations last year, where he estimated a break even point of 150 million dollar, based upon having 1 million subs for 1 year.
He didn't even include the revenues of the initial sales.
Since the required amount for reaching a decent profit is 500k, it stands to reason that also the break even point will be lower. And let's not forget the initial sales, and especially the digital sales since those make the company more profit just like it did for Trion with Rift, Mr Jenning didn't include those in his calculations. So that means the break even point is even lower than half of that 150 million dollar.
Anyway, it's all speculations anyway, only I'd like to keep with figures that have at least some foundation in rational calculations and not based upon feelings of hatred and dislike for a game, desperately wanting to see it fail for whatever vague reason someone can dream up
NB: on a sidenote, yes, that means that Blizzard is making THAT much money, bucketloads, to easily finance 10 AAA MMORPG's a year. Make it 8 AAA MMORPG's for the profits that Blizzard makes in 1 year, and all those 8 would all be automatically the most expensive AAA MMORPG's developed in all time.
And no, that kind of money isn't invested back into WoW, maybe for some small part of that money into Titan, but if Blizzard wanted or were allowed to, they could for the profit they make in 2-3 months create the best AAA themepark/sandbox/revolutionary and innovative hybrid MMORPG that 200 million dollars can make.
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS.
That's the key. To be able to break even in one year (which would actualy be good for an MMO).... $30 million would have to cover thier full operating budget to support 1 million users a year (hosting, bandwidth, storage, employee's, offices, admvertsiment & marketing) PLUS whatever cuts they have to dole out to Lucas Arts in terms of royalties (god's know what that is) plus whatever tax liabilties they have in the various areas of the world they make sales in.
Honestly, I don't even think 1 million subs is going to cut it....not without some serious additional revenue from RMT.
Note I think they could be very profitable....but I think they are going to have to hit a subscriber base that's much larger then anyone but WOW to do it.
The other thing to take into account is not just can they turn a proffit....but how much of a proffit will it be. That'll determine whether the investors see it as a success or flop. MMO's, really any entertainment product are seen as very high-risk investments.....and with development times being what they are...it's at least several years before a product you've invested in starts making ANY money back. For that type of thing.....an investors expects not just a proffit but a very high return in order for it to be considered worthwhile. If you're only seeing a 5-10% return on your investment ...you may as well go out and buy T-bills instead. I think they have to make a VERY healthy proffit for 2-4 years after release at least..in order to have been considered a good investment by anyone.
Sorry GrumpyMel2, but it really does not matter what YOU think here. The financial experts at EA said 500K subscribers keeps them profitable and that really is the only number to matter. Of course they did not say how many box sales they think they will be getting (partial profit due to costs), nor how many electronic sales (pure profit), nor even what other forms of revenue they are looking into (scaling partial profit for electronic sales and partial profit for sale-able items like t-shirts). So yes, math is our friend as you said, but you sir do not have the whole equation.
All in all, I'll trust the people who know the whole situation instead of someone just guessing blindly.
So you'll put your trust in company PR/Media spokespersons releasing comments for public consumption for which they cannot be held directly accountable rather then basic mathematics? Well....whatever works for you.
Piece of advice though...in business you generaly don't get to hear the real numbers/projections from the real experts unless you are sitting in the corporate board-room...and often not even then.
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS
Where's the 50 million dollars they get with boxes?
A publisher typicaly recoups a very small amount of of each retail box sold. It's why discounts for digital distribution or even giving away the clients for free are fairly common options for SaaS providers (which is basicaly what MMO's are). Also the boxed sale typicaly comes with 30 days worth of time included.... so it's not really all that unreasonable to count it in with A $15 per month sub fee. Realisticaly that's about what the publisher see's (sometimes even less) with a hard copy that is sold retail.
So you'll put your trust in company PR/Media spokespersons releasing comments for public consumption for which they cannot be held directly accountable rather then basic mathematics? Well....whatever works for you.
Piece of advice though...in business you generaly don't get to hear the real numbers/projections from the real experts unless you are sitting in the corporate board-room...and often not even then.
Shrug. It was stated at a conference investors/shareholders meeting that 'at half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable', I see no reason why they should lie about it at such a meeting.
Originally posted by GrumpyMel2
Originally posted by Zulbas
Originally posted by GrumpyMel2
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS
Where's the 50 million dollars they get with boxes?
A publisher typicaly recoups a very small amount of of each retail box sold. It's why discounts for digital distribution or even giving away the clients for free are fairly common options for SaaS providers (which is basicaly what MMO's are). Also the boxed sale typicaly comes with 30 days worth of time included.... so it's not really all that unreasonable to count it in with A $15 per month sub fee. Realisticaly that's about what the publisher see's (sometimes even less) with a hard copy that is sold retail.
Sorry, but that's hardly realistic.
A lot of speculation on these and other forums is often more indicative of the contrary, that MMO companies rake in a lot of revenues and profit due to the box and digital sales at the launch of a new MMO, up to the point that there've been accusations regarding companies like Cryptic that they're mainly focused on the game sales revenues, and not sub retention.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
So you'll put your trust in company PR/Media spokespersons releasing comments for public consumption for which they cannot be held directly accountable rather then basic mathematics? Well....whatever works for you.
Piece of advice though...in business you generaly don't get to hear the real numbers/projections from the real experts unless you are sitting in the corporate board-room...and often not even then.
Shrug. It was stated at a conference investors/shareholders meeting that 'at half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable', I see no reason why they should lie about it at such a meeting.
This. Plus like I said before GrumpyMel2, they have all the information on what they plan on doing while you are doing nothing more than reading tea leaves. Never liked charlatan fortune tellers myself and so I will place more faith in someone that is a professional and trying to make money than someone who is guessing any day.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS.
That's the key. To be able to break even in one year (which would actualy be good for an MMO).... $30 million would have to cover thier full operating budget to support 1 million users a year (hosting, bandwidth, storage, employee's, offices, admvertsiment & marketing) PLUS whatever cuts they have to dole out to Lucas Arts in terms of royalties (god's know what that is) plus whatever tax liabilties they have in the various areas of the world they make sales in.
Honestly, I don't even think 1 million subs is going to cut it....not without some serious additional revenue from RMT.
As GMan3 also already said, you ignored the statements given by EA/BW people that 500k subs would already see a decent profit. Next to that, you didn't include the initial sales of the game which if you'd have 1 million sold units, among them digital sales and collector's editions, would also rake in quite some money.
So your figures are incorrect.
Yes, just as I ignored Clinton's statements that he did not have sex with Monica or BP's statements that they really were doing everything they could for the environment.
Public figures and corporations issue public statements for very specific reasons....and there are almost always agendas behind those statements. It's only in VERY specific circumstances that you can take such statements at face value.... and typicaly those involve legal and regulatory circumstances where they can actualy be held accountable for the accuracy of thier statements.
I think it could have a good amount of subs and here is why.
1) MMO's are way popular now way back when SWG was a good game to play. Once it got a bad rep I'm sure it turned away a lot of potential SW fans and kept them from trying it.
2) MMO's are even more popular today and KOTOR has a huge following and people are less hesitant to pay a monthly fee for a game these days like they were back when SWG was good.
I know like 5 or 6 people that never have played an MMO before that want to play SWTOR. Go through and ask all your friends that don't play MMOs and see how many of them want to play the game. I think they might have found a new untapped market of players.
Yes, just as I ignored Clinton's statements that he did not have sex with Monica or BP's statements that they really were doing everything they could for the environment.
Public figures and corporations issue public statements for very specific reasons....and there are almost always agendas behind those statements. It's only in VERY specific circumstances that you can take such statements at face value.... and typicaly those involve legal and regulatory circumstances where they can actualy be held accountable for the accuracy of thier statements.
Sure, mate. Let's disbelieve everything, and then I mean, everything that any politician or MMO company representative says because, hey, they must be lying anyway, right?
So I don't know where you got that 1 million figure, but I'm telling you, it's a blatant lie. Disbelieve anything.
... to me, it's an obvious example of the cafetaria model, where people cherry pick the statements they want to believe in, because it's most convenient to them and comes closest to what they want to believe.
In this case you want to disbelieve what BW representatives were saying at their quarterly shareholders/investors conference meeting, because hyperinflated budget serves your viewpoint regarding SWTOR and BW best for whatever reason it may be.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS.
That's the key. To be able to break even in one year (which would actualy be good for an MMO).... $30 million would have to cover thier full operating budget to support 1 million users a year (hosting, bandwidth, storage, employee's, offices, admvertsiment & marketing) PLUS whatever cuts they have to dole out to Lucas Arts in terms of royalties (god's know what that is) plus whatever tax liabilties they have in the various areas of the world they make sales in.
Honestly, I don't even think 1 million subs is going to cut it....not without some serious additional revenue from RMT.
As GMan3 also already said, you ignored the statements given by EA/BW people that 500k subs would already see a decent profit. Next to that, you didn't include the initial sales of the game which if you'd have 1 million sold units, among them digital sales and collector's editions, would also rake in quite some money.
So your figures are incorrect.
Yes, just as I ignored Clinton's statements that he did not have sex with Monica or BP's statements that they really were doing everything they could for the environment.
Public figures and corporations issue public statements for very specific reasons....and there are almost always agendas behind those statements. It's only in VERY specific circumstances that you can take such statements at face value.... and typicaly those involve legal and regulatory circumstances where they can actualy be held accountable for the accuracy of thier statements.
Sorry GrumpyMel2, but your apparent distrust of political figures and major corporations seems to be clouding your mind to the fact that YOU are the one making huge projections with no foot to stand on. You have no idea how much money they will garner from each box sale (partial profit). You have no idea how much money they will make via electronic slaes of the game (pure profit). You have no idea how much they will make on sales of in game items like pets or specialty speeders (upwardly scaling partial profit that basically turns into pure profit in only a few sales).
Now I will admit that I do not trust major corporations that much myself, but it is amazing how often their data is correct, or very close to it, while fortune tellers grasping at straws are almost never corrrect.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
As for the 'TOR will change the industry' statement, there's only two things I think other developers will want to adopt for sure.
Voice-overs & Auto-travel Mini-games.
Voice-overs: is a no brainer. While they are present in most games to some degree already, I think we will be seeing them cover a lot more content than what is standard today.
Travel Mini-games: In games where we travel from place to place on an automated route (like in WoW with the griffon's or whatever it was), I think it would be a lot more fun to adopt the same sort of scheme as TOR's space travel, where you are able to do something while you wait.
Example: Click the travel NPC, hop on an automated horse, and while it is taking you to your destination you will need to defend yourself from ambush, from anything to road-side AI or maybe even other AI controlled riders that creep along side you.
Just that alone could really open up some creativity if the developers chose to expand on that simple idea.
Both of those sort of changes could only be a good thing imo. I don't see much of any bad influences coming from TOR, apart from maybe a few bad apples that end up impropperly over using instances to an extreme, but that is it, TOR isn't really doing that much more out of the ordinary anyways.
So you'll put your trust in company PR/Media spokespersons releasing comments for public consumption for which they cannot be held directly accountable rather then basic mathematics? Well....whatever works for you.
Piece of advice though...in business you generaly don't get to hear the real numbers/projections from the real experts unless you are sitting in the corporate board-room...and often not even then.
Shrug. It was stated at a conference investors/shareholders meeting that 'at half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable', I see no reason why they should lie about it at such a meeting.
Originally posted by GrumpyMel2
Originally posted by Zulbas
Originally posted by GrumpyMel2
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS
Where's the 50 million dollars they get with boxes?
A publisher typicaly recoups a very small amount of of each retail box sold. It's why discounts for digital distribution or even giving away the clients for free are fairly common options for SaaS providers (which is basicaly what MMO's are). Also the boxed sale typicaly comes with 30 days worth of time included.... so it's not really all that unreasonable to count it in with A $15 per month sub fee. Realisticaly that's about what the publisher see's (sometimes even less) with a hard copy that is sold retail.
Sorry, but that's hardly realistic.
A lot of speculation on these and other forums is often more indicative of the contrary, that MMO companies rake in a lot of revenues and profit due to the box and digital sales at the launch of a new MMO, up to the point that there've been accusations regarding companies like Cryptic that they're mainly focused on the game sales revenues, and not sub retention.
1) Exactly how did they define "profitable" is it in the typical sense that at that point gross income outstrips expenditures? If that were the case they could indeed be operating at a "profit" and still take a thousand years to recoup the initial investment it took to develop the product (i.e. they operating at a positive each month but hold substantial debt/obligations that has not be paid back).
Again, simple math is our friend... at 500K subscriptions thier MAXIMUM GROSS REVENUE for a year is 90 million....assuming $15 per month sub fee. Unless the game only cost 90 million to make....and they have ZERO operating expenses and ZERO royalty obligations to the IP holder.....and ZERO tax liabilities....then they haven't even come close to breaking even at that point.
Don't assume that shareholder meetings are devoid of spin.....in fact, they are often where the greatest degree of spin occurs. Regardless... numbers don't lie. Unless they are expecting WAY more then $15 per month income off the average user....it's going to take a long, long time (if ever) for 500k subs to recoup their initial investment.
2) Think what you like about forum speculation....go out and try to cut a deal with a whole-saler's, distributers and retailers.... (let alone printing and production costs for physical copies)....see for yourself what kind of markup they get on each sale. The publishers/developer realizes only a small fraction of each sale. Digital distribution tends to be much better...but even there it's not 100 percent profit to the publisher. Don't take my word for it....research it yourself.
Yes, just as I ignored Clinton's statements that he did not have sex with Monica or BP's statements that they really were doing everything they could for the environment.
Public figures and corporations issue public statements for very specific reasons....and there are almost always agendas behind those statements. It's only in VERY specific circumstances that you can take such statements at face value.... and typicaly those involve legal and regulatory circumstances where they can actualy be held accountable for the accuracy of thier statements.
Sure, mate. Let's disbelieve everything, and then I mean, everything that any politician or MMO company representative says because, hey, they must be lying anyway, right?
So I don't know where you got that 1 million figure, but I'm telling you, it's a blatant lie. Disbelieve anything.
... to me, it's an obvious example of the cafetaria model, where people cherry pick the statements they want to believe in, because it's most convenient to them and comes closest to what they want to believe.
In this case you want to disbelieve what BW representatives were saying at their quarterly shareholders/investors conference meeting, because hyperinflated budget serves your viewpoint regarding SWTOR and BW best for whatever reason it may be.
The 1 million subs came from an outside analyst working for Stern Agee (SAFS), an instutional investment firm that was looking at EA. You can choose to believe it or not....but all I've seen you do here is hype TOR and ignore anything that remotely hints of math and actual numbers.
There are alot of things we don't know.... but we certainly CAN calculate things like gross income from subscriptions based on a given subscription price. You can also get a pretty good rough guess as to income from retail box sales...if you have any experience in the field whatsoever.
The statements that TOR has the largest development budget of any MMO to date.....is simply not compatible with the statement that they will have broken even after 1 year at only 500K subs...given standard industry sub prices (Note though that Bioware/EA only stated that they would be "profitable" with no definition of what they actualy meant by that).
Like it or not...it is what it is...numbers don't lie. 500K for a year at $15 per month is 90 Million GROSS.
Comments
I think tor will do fine. First off vo and story in an mmo has never been done on the level tor is gonna do it. Im looking forward to it immensly.
2 as for crafting being even easier then wow thats funny. First off yoru companions will craft for u. thats because the crafting takes time to do longer then wows click and make features. They can gather materials for u but u can as well while out in the world.
3 i have a very big qustion im sure no one will actually answer . the haters will jus thate.
If u arent gonna play this game if its not the kind of game u are looking for why bash it all the time. Who im the world made it your job to convince the rest of the world to not play tor?
What is in bashing tor all the time and putting it down for u? Please id love an answer.
the truth is if u dont wanna play this game or if its not your cup of tea go away. im tired of the crap u spew.
Tor has alot of cool features im looking forward to. the companion system the choices that actually dictate how npcs and even yoru companons realt to u is something ive never seen anywhere else. Im lookng forward to bioware putting the rpg back in mmorpg.
the space thing isnt a big issue to me. it seems to be cause the same people whine about it over and over but u were never gonna get a full fledged ground based mmo and a full fledged space sim. Was never gonna happen. I like how bioware is gonna do space in tor.
Im not a huge space sim game fan. so tunnell shooter is right up my ally. If u dont like this game and arent gonna play it fine.
But no one said it was your job to convince me and others to not play tor. no idea what my not playing tor is gonna gain u anyways. Your vitriol is just making me happier u arent gonna play tor and i wont have to see u in game .
That could happen. At the same time though, APB had arguably the best character customization of any game ever made, and that hasn't change the industry at all.
Vault-Tec analysts have concluded that the odds of worldwide nuclear armaggeddon this decade are 17,143,762... to 1.
If SWTOR is successful or not wont decide the future of sandbox MMOS. Indie companies will keep making sandboxes because to make a game with this status requires a Big investment, HUGE one i might add.
Hopefully SWTOR will be the one taking down WoW but it will be a slow process and i think its wrong to think that SWTORS success will be bad for small companies, its bad for the big ones.
It might even share the crown with WoW, one rulling the fantasy base type of fans the other the sci-fi one.
SWG never had millions due to at the time not everyone had a pc as they were still out of the reach price wise, then you had to have a decent to great rig to play the game, then internet back at the time was not great either with plenty still using dial-up , and finally just because it was a Star Wars game and your right on with this statement "SWG never had millions of Starwars fans go play a Starwars game before, why would they do so now ?" There are people out there that like Star Wars but don't like gaming in general, so why is TOR so different that people will just drop whatever their doing and play TOR cause it's Star Wars is the question to all the rabid TOR fans out there?
Why do we need a game to compete with WOW ? E-Peen bragging rights perhaps? With the only excpetion of EVE I'm pretty much done with even trying any new MMOs coming out on the horizon, Arche Age I'll wait for reviews and a sub model before I will even touch that one, but everything else has failed in my eyes to even draw any interest, I'm tired of the same game over and over just in a new skin with slightly different mechanics, I'm tired of MMOs not being finished or polished but rushed out the door to grab a buck, I'm tired of the in your face cash shops being implemented in MMOs to empty my wallet when it could've should've been in the box to start with.
Its time for the industry to start doing something different soon or its going to see more of a exodus away from MMO's give me something for a long term outlook and give me something to do sides run a treadmill for gear,and run scripted dances (dungeons) where the hell is the non-combat activities? The social draw? The tools to foster community?
Done with my rant, and done with the mediocrity that is MMOs, its gotten old, and there is nothing left out there in the industry but a hollow, shallow husk what it could've been.
Because many people had high hopes for this game. Those hopes were squashed when the game went in the direction of WOW clone. It was a HUGE let down that a game soo many people wanted for soo long was mangled and disfigured into another bland gear grind. Most of us followed the games progress for years only to be told any hopes for a good game will be replaced by the wishes of guild Ensidia.
Now I KNOW its not a big deal for people who just love star wars and probably would play Clone Wars Adventures if thats all there were to play. BUT for those of us who did our prison sentence on WOW already, who have experienced other mmorpgs as well and would have settled for a Themepark that at least did SOMETHING different, something MEANINGFUL please dont bring the VO fluff or EZ mode crafting nonsense because its just FLUFF. I mean if you have played through this kind of themepark for years then playing TOR is going to feel like playing the same RPG for the 3000th mind numbing time.
I think there is alot of misinformation about what TOR really is from die hard fans. Trying to pass of a WOW with lightsabers game that doesnt even have space travel and pretty well copies all of the mechanics as something groundbreaking, just because it has VO is disingenuous. I think people have a right to know that your trying to pass off tin foil as a new invention. Also I comment on it because it is relevent to the topic.
I mean not even the EA shareholders are holding their breath on this one and knowing EA games I wont either.
http://torwars.com/2011/01/24/analyst-says-ea-investors-not-counting-on-swtor/
So in the sceme of things having to do with if the game will change the industry, I think pointing out the negative of the game is relevent.
SWG didn't come out that long before WOW and WOW did fine reguardless of computer limitations. The reason SWG didn't do well is that it had a horrible launch, the game was barely reminisant of Starwars, the game was buggie, and SOE kept jerking the player base back and forth with nerphs/changes long before NEG.
As for Saints statement SWG may not of had millions of players at one time, but that was due to lack of player longivity. SWG certainly had millions of people who played the game even with the very public critism of the games launch and poor managment.
All that being said Firefly's general assumption I think is correct that a decade ago simply wasn't the base of players willing to play an MMO. It had taken WOW some time to build their numbers into the millions as well. Today however there is more cross over gaming, MMOs/computer gaming is more socially acceptable, and computers are a bigger part of peoples lives. So it should actually be easier for a game to reach that level of success, but that doesn't mean that a any POS game can do it. It'll take a game with a large pre-following that delivers in content and quality.
Math is our freind. 1 million subs x $15 per month (assuming standard MMO pricing structure) x 12 month's = $180 million... GROSS.
That's the key. To be able to break even in one year (which would actualy be good for an MMO).... $30 million would have to cover thier full operating budget to support 1 million users a year (hosting, bandwidth, storage, employee's, offices, admvertsiment & marketing) PLUS whatever cuts they have to dole out to Lucas Arts in terms of royalties (god's know what that is) plus whatever tax liabilties they have in the various areas of the world they make sales in.
Honestly, I don't even think 1 million subs is going to cut it....not without some serious additional revenue from RMT.
Note I think they could be very profitable....but I think they are going to have to hit a subscriber base that's much larger then anyone but WOW to do it.
The other thing to take into account is not just can they turn a proffit....but how much of a proffit will it be. That'll determine whether the investors see it as a success or flop. MMO's, really any entertainment product are seen as very high-risk investments.....and with development times being what they are...it's at least several years before a product you've invested in starts making ANY money back. For that type of thing.....an investors expects not just a proffit but a very high return in order for it to be considered worthwhile. If you're only seeing a 5-10% return on your investment ...you may as well go out and buy T-bills instead. I think they have to make a VERY healthy proffit for 2-4 years after release at least..in order to have been considered a good investment by anyone.
Couldn't agree more with kalinis. What is really ironic is that some of the people bashing this game will still be playing it on week one. That's exactly what happened with DCU online. The same people that could never forgive SOE for ruining their precious SWG still ended up buying DCU online while hating it. It's like battered wife's syndrome.So unfortunately we will still have to deal with some of these people after it is released.:(
As for the ones making the claim that they are just here to inform others, there is plenty of information on this game readily available from real sources, and no, your previous experience of buying crappy games doesn't count. No one with the ability to think for themselves is going to listen to someone who spews vile, so you're really wasting your time.If you were really here to inform others, you would do what we do which is to tell people to follow the links stickied and decide for themselves. Very few fans of this game think this is a WOW killer nor do we care if it becomes that.I don't care if this game is the most innovative on the market and I certainly aren't going to listen to someone that buys every piece of crap that the market offers.
The majority of the fans I'm seeing for this game are Star Wars fans and KOTOR fans, many whom have never done the MMO thing before.The ones that do have previous MMO experience are loving what this game has to offer. Some are questioning the advanced class system because they are used to the rigid structure that WOW has.(Gee, WOW vets worried that this game is different from WOW, imagine that)Are there people on the TOR forums that don't like it? Sure there is and they make their presence known all the time. Yet they are still allowed to post their hate for this game and aren't bounced off the site. I dare you to find any other MMO forum for a game that doesn't have people hating it.
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
Sorry GrumpyMel2, but it really does not matter what YOU think here. The financial experts at EA said 500K subscribers keeps them profitable and that really is the only number to matter. Of course they did not say how many box sales they think they will be getting (partial profit due to costs), nor how many electronic sales (pure profit), nor even what other forms of revenue they are looking into (scaling partial profit for electronic sales and partial profit for sale-able items like t-shirts). So yes, math is our friend as you said, but you sir do not have the whole equation.
All in all, I'll trust the people who know the whole situation instead of someone just guessing blindly.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
Well, theres various rumors about how much SWTOR cost to create. WoW apparently initially needed 30 Mio $, while SWTOR gets numbers up to 300 Mio $. Though its more likely that it was something like 80 Mio $.
Anyway, I dont see SWTOR as a WoW competition. Its different enough from WoW so that players who want WoW gamestyle will stay on WoW.
I see SWTOR more of a "carebear" game for people who dont usually play MMOs. Thats also a reason why I picked SWTOR as my next MMO. My time constraints no longer allow to play a "hardcore" MMO, so a "carebear" or "casual" version will have to do.
Oh, good RPGs can last longer than a month. Two months is a limit for me, though. After two months, only BG2 managed to be still fascinating. And I forcefully played BG2 until I couldnt see it any more, because it was so super awesome.
MMOs are different... I played Vanguard from start until autuum 2009, when everyone I grouped before had left, my guild had disbanded months before, and I couldnt get a group on ANY of my characters (and I had all levels covered).
As GMan3 also already said, you ignored the statements given by EA/BW people that 500k subs would already see a decent profit. Next to that, you didn't include the initial sales of the game which if you'd have 1 million sold units, among them digital sales and collector's editions, would also rake in quite some money.
So your figures are incorrect.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Where's the 50 million dollars they get with boxes?
So you'll put your trust in company PR/Media spokespersons releasing comments for public consumption for which they cannot be held directly accountable rather then basic mathematics? Well....whatever works for you.
Piece of advice though...in business you generaly don't get to hear the real numbers/projections from the real experts unless you are sitting in the corporate board-room...and often not even then.
A publisher typicaly recoups a very small amount of of each retail box sold. It's why discounts for digital distribution or even giving away the clients for free are fairly common options for SaaS providers (which is basicaly what MMO's are). Also the boxed sale typicaly comes with 30 days worth of time included.... so it's not really all that unreasonable to count it in with A $15 per month sub fee. Realisticaly that's about what the publisher see's (sometimes even less) with a hard copy that is sold retail.
Shrug. It was stated at a conference investors/shareholders meeting that 'at half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable', I see no reason why they should lie about it at such a meeting.
Sorry, but that's hardly realistic.
A lot of speculation on these and other forums is often more indicative of the contrary, that MMO companies rake in a lot of revenues and profit due to the box and digital sales at the launch of a new MMO, up to the point that there've been accusations regarding companies like Cryptic that they're mainly focused on the game sales revenues, and not sub retention.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
This. Plus like I said before GrumpyMel2, they have all the information on what they plan on doing while you are doing nothing more than reading tea leaves. Never liked charlatan fortune tellers myself and so I will place more faith in someone that is a professional and trying to make money than someone who is guessing any day.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
Yes, just as I ignored Clinton's statements that he did not have sex with Monica or BP's statements that they really were doing everything they could for the environment.
Public figures and corporations issue public statements for very specific reasons....and there are almost always agendas behind those statements. It's only in VERY specific circumstances that you can take such statements at face value.... and typicaly those involve legal and regulatory circumstances where they can actualy be held accountable for the accuracy of thier statements.
I think it could have a good amount of subs and here is why.
1) MMO's are way popular now way back when SWG was a good game to play. Once it got a bad rep I'm sure it turned away a lot of potential SW fans and kept them from trying it.
2) MMO's are even more popular today and KOTOR has a huge following and people are less hesitant to pay a monthly fee for a game these days like they were back when SWG was good.
I know like 5 or 6 people that never have played an MMO before that want to play SWTOR. Go through and ask all your friends that don't play MMOs and see how many of them want to play the game. I think they might have found a new untapped market of players.
Sure, mate. Let's disbelieve everything, and then I mean, everything that any politician or MMO company representative says because, hey, they must be lying anyway, right?
So I don't know where you got that 1 million figure, but I'm telling you, it's a blatant lie. Disbelieve anything.
... to me, it's an obvious example of the cafetaria model, where people cherry pick the statements they want to believe in, because it's most convenient to them and comes closest to what they want to believe.
In this case you want to disbelieve what BW representatives were saying at their quarterly shareholders/investors conference meeting, because hyperinflated budget serves your viewpoint regarding SWTOR and BW best for whatever reason it may be.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Sorry GrumpyMel2, but your apparent distrust of political figures and major corporations seems to be clouding your mind to the fact that YOU are the one making huge projections with no foot to stand on. You have no idea how much money they will garner from each box sale (partial profit). You have no idea how much money they will make via electronic slaes of the game (pure profit). You have no idea how much they will make on sales of in game items like pets or specialty speeders (upwardly scaling partial profit that basically turns into pure profit in only a few sales).
Now I will admit that I do not trust major corporations that much myself, but it is amazing how often their data is correct, or very close to it, while fortune tellers grasping at straws are almost never corrrect.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
As for the 'TOR will change the industry' statement, there's only two things I think other developers will want to adopt for sure.
Voice-overs & Auto-travel Mini-games.
Voice-overs: is a no brainer. While they are present in most games to some degree already, I think we will be seeing them cover a lot more content than what is standard today.
Travel Mini-games: In games where we travel from place to place on an automated route (like in WoW with the griffon's or whatever it was), I think it would be a lot more fun to adopt the same sort of scheme as TOR's space travel, where you are able to do something while you wait.
Example: Click the travel NPC, hop on an automated horse, and while it is taking you to your destination you will need to defend yourself from ambush, from anything to road-side AI or maybe even other AI controlled riders that creep along side you.
Just that alone could really open up some creativity if the developers chose to expand on that simple idea.
Both of those sort of changes could only be a good thing imo. I don't see much of any bad influences coming from TOR, apart from maybe a few bad apples that end up impropperly over using instances to an extreme, but that is it, TOR isn't really doing that much more out of the ordinary anyways.
1) Exactly how did they define "profitable" is it in the typical sense that at that point gross income outstrips expenditures? If that were the case they could indeed be operating at a "profit" and still take a thousand years to recoup the initial investment it took to develop the product (i.e. they operating at a positive each month but hold substantial debt/obligations that has not be paid back).
Again, simple math is our friend... at 500K subscriptions thier MAXIMUM GROSS REVENUE for a year is 90 million....assuming $15 per month sub fee. Unless the game only cost 90 million to make....and they have ZERO operating expenses and ZERO royalty obligations to the IP holder.....and ZERO tax liabilities....then they haven't even come close to breaking even at that point.
Don't assume that shareholder meetings are devoid of spin.....in fact, they are often where the greatest degree of spin occurs. Regardless... numbers don't lie. Unless they are expecting WAY more then $15 per month income off the average user....it's going to take a long, long time (if ever) for 500k subs to recoup their initial investment.
2) Think what you like about forum speculation....go out and try to cut a deal with a whole-saler's, distributers and retailers.... (let alone printing and production costs for physical copies)....see for yourself what kind of markup they get on each sale. The publishers/developer realizes only a small fraction of each sale. Digital distribution tends to be much better...but even there it's not 100 percent profit to the publisher. Don't take my word for it....research it yourself.
You forget about the initial investment of at least $60 (who knows for collector editions) x 500,000 subs
The 1 million subs came from an outside analyst working for Stern Agee (SAFS), an instutional investment firm that was looking at EA. You can choose to believe it or not....but all I've seen you do here is hype TOR and ignore anything that remotely hints of math and actual numbers.
There are alot of things we don't know.... but we certainly CAN calculate things like gross income from subscriptions based on a given subscription price. You can also get a pretty good rough guess as to income from retail box sales...if you have any experience in the field whatsoever.
The statements that TOR has the largest development budget of any MMO to date.....is simply not compatible with the statement that they will have broken even after 1 year at only 500K subs...given standard industry sub prices (Note though that Bioware/EA only stated that they would be "profitable" with no definition of what they actualy meant by that).
Like it or not...it is what it is...numbers don't lie. 500K for a year at $15 per month is 90 Million GROSS.