Game will "Flop" harder than RIFT did...

Zeblade

Yawn "RIFT was supposed to kill WoW".. no where did they ever say this so if you had been around awhile you would have known what they DID say when people ASKED them this question.. pffft.

This is where I stopped. lol this guy has no clue. Oh guess what SWTOR is not out to KILL WOW either.

Wicoa

RIFT DID NOT FLOP

MaraGossep

Originally posted by Elidien

And themepark clones are here to stay. If TOR does well, similar games will be put in major development. If it flops, then the likelihood that risker game investment (such as sandboxes) will decline greatly. Either way, themeparks are the future.

Or maybe they will realise that people want something where their role in the world actually matters. (aka sandbox games), and start developing more games in that genre, which is the logic presented, which your clearly don't get.

Crackbone

Originally posted by Scrogdog

Originally posted by Crackbone

Any development house that wants to be solvent would pick "A" every time.  

This is the only way that they'd secure any outside funding to complete their project.  Sandbox MMOs are a huge financial gamble, as has been mentioned, typically have a smaller group of hardcore players.  Less players = less sales. 

I'm really curious as to what world some of you guys live in, where venture capital grows on trees and anyone can figure out how to make a relatively unpopular niche game type popular. 

I'd love to live there. 

You describe the issue perfectly.  Making games is not making art.  It is big business ONLY.

Tell me, how is it that a homemade zombie movie made with a hand held and non-professionals gets a mention at film festivals?  Think they made lots of money do you?  Think that's what is foremost on thier minds?

Again, the mindset for artistry simply is not present.  We have money grubbing pigs for devs and that is all.

What about running a company that's about substance instead of glitz and glamour?  How about a company that designs games for the love of the craft?  How about a company that is perfectly happy to simply break even because they got to do what they loved, were still able to feed and cloth thier families, and produced a product which they are very proud of?

Hey, these devs can go anywhere they want.  It's thier choice.  But let's not call it art because it isn't art.  It's tunnel vision devotion to a single marketing and sales goal.

Precisely, and it has to be big business now.  A game the size and scope of an MMO requires tons of funding and countless thousands of hours of time investment to produce.  

All of the mechanics, all of the art direction, all of the code, all of those assets takes big money to get done in any sort of a reasonable time frame.  

MMOs unfortunately take so long to produce something of quality, that you really can't afford to miss.  Years of development time and millions of dollars. 

With all of that inherent risk already built in, is it any surprise that the developers and publishers would try to maximize their investment by catering to the masses? 

I don't think it's strange or egregious or even underhanded in the least.  It's just business. 

Icewhite

Originally posted by Wicoa

RIFT DID NOT FLOP

Rift's actually in a pretty good position.  At least six months more of improvement to add, bringing the game out of the shadow of WoW, proving to the players that you can deliver the content, etc.

This could actually end up a four or five way race for the MMO throne, instead of the Behemoth and the Also Rans.  Would be a damned good thing for the industry.

ulthar50

Originally posted by Crackbone

 

The better question for you to answer for me is, Why would any development house limit their potential customer base to such a small niche? It's financial suicide. 

This is the money quote.

I wonder how many of folks commenting on the direction of MMO development have actually been involved in substantial investment decisions. 

A top line MMO costs upwards of $50 million nowadays. No one ... no firm is going to green light that type of investment on anything other than a mass market opportunity. Certainly you will get minor players investing much smaller sums of money and expecting much less in return (and providing a lower quality product), but to get a blockbuster? No, you invest tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars and you are expected to deliver a return. Fail to deliver that return and the product manager (producer/whatever) who proposed that work is at risk .... as well as everyone who signed off on it.

Wicoa

Originally posted by Icewhite

Originally posted by Wicoa

RIFT DID NOT FLOP

Rift's actually in a pretty good position.  At least six months more of improvement to add, bringing the game out of the shadow of WoW, proving to the players that you can deliver the content, etc.

This could actually end up a four or five way race for the MMO throne, instead of the Behemoth and the Also Rans.  Would be a damned good thing for the industry.

Thank you at least someone else is sensible, I just got the game for my son having a blast.  More content coming fast which is great.  At least it has stepped away from arena as a top means for end game pvp gear which is a major factor for me.

DCUO flopped in my opinion but not rift.

Scrogdog

Originally posted by maskedweasel

Originally posted by Scrogdog

Originally posted by maskedweasel

Originally posted by Scrogdog

Originally posted by Eliandal

  Yeah....noob devs.

  The largest sandbox MMO tops out at around 400K subs.  The best a 'semi' sandbox could do was around 300K subs.  There are millions of people happily playing themeparks.  Who do you think a developer is going to go after?  Sandbox games are a niche market.  Live with it.  If you can't - create your own.

This is somewhat like saying that all writers should attempt Harry Potter clones.  Because thier little romance novel or whatever will never equal the sales of Harry.  You can't be serious.  That's what you consider a healthy market?

 

Thats not a great analogy,  but,  you could still use it,  I mean should we see more fantasy books directed towards a younger crowd without dumbing it down?  Yeah... a few authors do that,  like Rick Riordan.  While not specifically a clone, these books are also widely popular.  Should more writers appeal to that market?  I think it would be a good idea to do so.  

 

It doesn't mean everything will have to be the same just because its geared towards a similar market.

 I think the greater point was that in all other forms of art niche markets are catered to, not shoved in to the corner of doom.

Heck, it's a running joke among painters that maybe they'll be famous when they die.  In other words, many creators of art can't even eke out a basic living based on thier talent.  Does that fact stop them from creating?  No.  Because the jingle of coin is not even the slightest consideration when performing or creating thier craft.

Not so in the sellout world of MMO where marketing and return on your investement dollar is all that matters.  MMOs don't even deserve to be called art anymore, really, because what matters artistically is no longer the creator's primary concern.

As I said... sellouts.

What a boring world this would be if all artists catered only to the almighty dollar and the lowest common denominator.

 

Well, I see what you're saying, but,  when it comes to building an MMO,  its not usually as simple as going to the art store and picking up a canvas,  a few acrylics and some paintbrushes,  usually it takes a lot of funding and collaboration.  

 

I like to think some games are created as art... but who would be considered the artist?  The development company?  The lead designer or developer?

 

Films are a different story in that respect too,  as the director portrays a vision,  but you don't every really question whether what a director is doing is "functional"  or   "fun"  in a movie.  You don't have to worry about anything other than portraying a particular emotion.   MMOs and games in general suffer from being the most interactive of... "art" forms.

 

I do agree with you though,  just because the market isn't as big, it doesn't mean developers shouldn't create what they want.

 I think part of the problem is that the dev teams have fooled themselves in to thinking that a single path is the only path. Yes, if your only measure of success is dollars, then I suppose that's true.  Why don't all musians, then, follow the path of the previous year's top selling artist?

If you have the NEED to create, to express yourself, to hold true to a vision, you'll find a way just like all other artists do.  I guess then that as a potential amatuer film maker with a vision, that I'd have to not care a whit that my film is never going to be a glitz bomb like Avatar.  But then, does it need to be for me to express myself?  Nope.

That's apprently why there will never be another Morrowind.  Just as Oblivion fell down in front of Morrowind in the eyes of many the reason was easy to see.  They wanted a less stat-based, more cinematic action experience.  Oblivion sold more units, and catered to a wider crowd, but many among us will never consider it a better game.

So, if money is ALL that matters, and apparently that's where we're at for the foreseeable future, then I suppose we could say that the games we are seeing are in perfect synch with the goals.

Joarnaj

Wow. The premise of the op is about as off-base as one can be. By all accounts Rift has, thus far, been more successful than any AAA title, perhaps outside of LotRO, since the release of WoW. Trion never thought Rift would kill WoW, nor did anyone outside of absurd fanboys on gaming forums. The best guess is that Trion sold between 700k and 1 mil units around launch, and according to Trion this was far ahead of their own projections. Thus far the decline in population also seems to go along with Scott Hartsman's own predictions at launch and are not nearly as severe as other AAA titles in recent years. So the facts so far indicate that Rift succeeded REALLY hard. The long-term results have yet to be seen.

What SWTOR will actually do is anyone's guess, but you're not only predicting catastrophic failure but anticipating what the results of the failure will be. I think the entire industry would be shocked if SWTOR didn't sell 1 million copies at launch, and it almost certainly will, which would be a huge success. The danger for SWTOR is not that it won't sell (it will) but that it will not sell enough or hold enough subscribers to make up for the enormous production cost. Seems to me that if SWTOR fails it will be blamed primarily on bad business. It reminds me of when Kevin Costner's Waterworld failed (yes, I'm dating myself.) Pundits were predicting the end of the blockbuster movie business, but people who understood business realized that it had nothing to do with blockbuster movies and everything to do with horrendous business decisions that have not been repeated since.

Icewhite

Originally posted by Scrogdog

So, if money is ALL that matters, and apparently that's where we're at for the foreseeable future, then I suppose we could say that the games we are seeing are in perfect synch with the goals.

Or finally release the notion that popularity has little or nothing to do with good game qualities, and explore the MMO universe for the variety that you missed.

There's a lot more niche games out there then can easily be explained by Corporate Profit Rules.  So clearly a game controlled by the creative team rather than the bean counters manages to slip through from time to time.

 

dageeza

Nah TOR isnt going to flop and trion is fighting tooth and nail to keep rift afloat against all odds imho, however they have not flopped as of yet..

A game doesnt have to have 1 million or more players to not flop it just needs to pay its bills to be considered somewhat successful in todays gaming market...

As for sandbox games i havent seen one in a while minus eve all i see is litterbox games claiming they are sandbox and even most of those wretched hunks of junk have not flopped..

laresloci

I like the words flip flop...I like wearing flip flops too.

dirtyd77

Originally posted by Malickie

I'm not seeing any evidence of this, if anything what I see is MMO's going a more action arcadey route in the future. Less emphasis on virtual worlds and community building, more emphasis on action and twitch combat.

Although I would not mind the action and twitch combat .... this would sadden me if we see less and less of virtual/persistent  worlds and less and less focus on community. ( although the more time rolls on the less I seem to like most games communities  maybe I am just getting old).

Turdinator

Do Warcraft kids get upset when another MMO comes out and puts one more nail in the coffin of a game they wasted quite a few years of their life playing?  Let's read on and find out, shall we?  Prepare yourself for this weeks installment of: "Every game that isn't WoW failed (even though many have more subscribers)"

 

Originally posted by Fadedbomb

By looking @ all the hype around a WoW-copy with a StarWars skin, it seems that SWTOR is getting SEVERAL times the "hype" that RIFT did.

Review:

-RIFT was supposed to kill WoW

-RIFT was also a WoW-copy (please move away from WoW-clone, it sounds immature, clone =/= copy)

-RIFT had the same UI, inventory, and skill system of WoW (same thing SWTOR is doing)

-RIFT flopped REALLY hard, so hard in fact that they viewed their sub number drop rate as a "failure in the making" and have started an aggressive freetrial, discount && "veteran return" plan.

 

 

I've been around the MMO-block for quite awhile now trying, testing, and playing almost every single MMO out there (even the ones that I KNEW what to expect before trying them, but still tried so i was 100% sure). Yet, time after time AFTER TIME I see the same community over-hype of the "NEXT BIG THING" only to have it blow up similar to AION, RIFT, etc etc etc.

I'm only worried at the backlash that SWTOR's failure will bring. It's one of the largest fully developed MMO's of all time. Yet, they didn't feel that breaking from the "industry standard" of WoW's lowest common denominator was a "safe" investment, and that spelled their doom since the inception of SWTOR. Will we see a decrease in investing towards MMOs in general? Will we see more garbage "F2P" fad increases?

 

Or, could we possibly see a shift in the market towards triple 'A' sandbox development & implementation? Obviously I'm hoping for the latter, but I feel it'll be somewhere in the middle of less investing towards MMOs & a larger interest in sandbox MMOs. Granted, that's not a horrible thing to have happen, but it's obviously not the ideal.

 

 

Thoughts?

Scrogdog

Originally posted by Icewhite

Originally posted by Scrogdog

So, if money is ALL that matters, and apparently that's where we're at for the foreseeable future, then I suppose we could say that the games we are seeing are in perfect synch with the goals.

Or finally release the notion that popularity has little or nothing to do with good game qualities, and explore the MMO universe for the variety that you missed.

There's a lot more niche games out there then can easily be explained by Corporate Profit Rules.  So clearly a game controlled by the creative team rather than the bean counters manages to slip through from time to time.

Yeah, like Fallen Earth!

Oh... wait... they started off well but then they sold out too.

In general, I acknowledge that you are correct, but still, the largest part of the market seems stuck on stupid in my mind.  Fallen Earth is a great example that had a nche vision but then could not hold to it because they felt they had to ultimately cater to the pop culture market or die on the vine sub-wise.

Now look at them.  GamersFirst?  Owwwwwwww! lol

Distopia

Originally posted by dirtyd77

Originally posted by Malickie

I'm not seeing any evidence of this, if anything what I see is MMO's going a more action arcadey route in the future. Less emphasis on virtual worlds and community building, more emphasis on action and twitch combat.

Although I would not mind the action and twitch combat .... this would sadden me if we see less and less of virtual/persistent  worlds and less and less focus on community. ( although the more time rolls on the less I seem to like most games communities  maybe I am just getting old).

I agree, I'm not even crazy about the action oriented route some studios are bringing to the genre. Nothing focuses on community interaction today, nor do players, I miss that aspect of MMO's.

Onigod

Only readed topic title and couldnt bother to read to topic itself cus of it.

 

I dont play rift i have played it but it is just not for me but the game is far from a flop their paycheck could tell you that.

MaraGossep

Originally posted by Malickie

Originally posted by dirtyd77

Originally posted by Malickie

I'm not seeing any evidence of this, if anything what I see is MMO's going a more action arcadey route in the future. Less emphasis on virtual worlds and community building, more emphasis on action and twitch combat.

Although I would not mind the action and twitch combat .... this would sadden me if we see less and less of virtual/persistent  worlds and less and less focus on community. ( although the more time rolls on the less I seem to like most games communities  maybe I am just getting old).

I agree, I'm not even crazy about the action oriented route some studios are bringing to the genre. Nothing focuses on community interaction today, nor do players, I miss that aspect of MMO's.

You hit the nail on the spot.

This started when EQ2 and WoW was released. They upped the pace of the genre so much, that you basically had no time for interaction during raids/dungeons/camping, etc. EQ 1 was a cozy game, the pace was slow enough for one to have time for player interaction when you were grouping. If you are doing this in a modern MMO, you will be shouted at for not putting out enough DPS.

Scrogdog

Originally posted by Malickie

Originally posted by dirtyd77

Originally posted by Malickie

I'm not seeing any evidence of this, if anything what I see is MMO's going a more action arcadey route in the future. Less emphasis on virtual worlds and community building, more emphasis on action and twitch combat.

Although I would not mind the action and twitch combat .... this would sadden me if we see less and less of virtual/persistent  worlds and less and less focus on community. ( although the more time rolls on the less I seem to like most games communities  maybe I am just getting old).

I agree, I'm not even crazy about the action oriented route some studios are bringing to the genre. Nothing focuses on community interaction today, nor do players, I miss that aspect of MMO's.

 Me too.

Someone created a topic today that talked about the possibility of recreating some of what SWG had in a new game.

Think about that.  If you had a way to have non-combatant classes like dedicated crafters and entertainers and doctors, and the social systems like the party NPCs to help the players to make thier own in-game events, while at the same time overlaying a really good combat system over it (something SWG never had EVEN pre-cu), wouldn't that hold the max number of subscribers?

This game would probably be tough to balance.  But I've often wondered why no one has picked up the ball in a similar way.  Heck, if they added housing (even instanced) and intricate crafting and non-combat classes to WoW, I might be playing that game right now!

No one cares about those elements anymore I guess, but again, my idea is sort of three seperate games in one.  The non-combats don't care if YOU like thier gameplay or not.  And vice versa.

Tokken

I think it will be easy to immerse myself in this game.... b/c it's Star Wars.  I don't have high expectations for the game and want to be pleasantly surprised.  When I get my hopes up MMO's usually disappoint me.

I agree that MMO's are getting too fast paced and solo oriented.  I would love to see a reliance on community interaction again.

Distopia

Originally posted by MaraGossep

Originally posted by Malickie

Originally posted by dirtyd77

Originally posted by Malickie

I'm not seeing any evidence of this, if anything what I see is MMO's going a more action arcadey route in the future. Less emphasis on virtual worlds and community building, more emphasis on action and twitch combat.

Although I would not mind the action and twitch combat .... this would sadden me if we see less and less of virtual/persistent  worlds and less and less focus on community. ( although the more time rolls on the less I seem to like most games communities  maybe I am just getting old).

I agree, I'm not even crazy about the action oriented route some studios are bringing to the genre. Nothing focuses on community interaction today, nor do players, I miss that aspect of MMO's.

You hit the nail on the spot.

This started when EQ2 and WoW was released. They upped the pace of the genre so much, that you basically had no time for interaction during raids/dungeons/camping, etc. EQ 1 was a cozy game, the pace was slow enough for one to have time for player interaction when you were grouping. If you are doing this in a modern MMO, you will be shouted at for not putting out enough DPS.

You mirror my thoughts with this post, that's one aspect I loved about SWG, it was fun, yet paced well enough to communicate even in PVP (even though we used Vent). It was still possible to use chat while playing, while in combat or not. Try that in AOC...

Celcius

I like how people claim that a AAA sandbox mmo ever existed. It has always been a niche market and developers stay away from it because of that. 

If SWTOR fails no game developer will want to risk putting money into a big MMORPG title like it again and investors won't throw money at it. It is a losing situation for everyone if it fails. I am willing to bet it won't though.

naraku209

All your accusations come from a consumer or players standpoint.. No where has Bioware or Trion worlds STATED that they were going to be a wow killer.. this is all coming from people who think some game will be the next big thing.. i have no doubt that ToR will do well.. and rift still is doing well SORRY that those games havnt been out for 7 years. WoW wasn't some BIG new thing when it first came out either. it took it a good minute to blow up where it is today, as time goes on WoW will be outdatted as it already is and people will forget about it like they have EQ and UO.. stop posting uselss posts about hating something you will play.

Guileplayer

Lol TC forgot to mention that WoW is a copy of EQ. And look how that turned out. All in all theres no way of telling if a game will fail or not until 3 months after its release. Sorry but all this "prediction" really doesn't prove anything other than the fact you are qqing and taking this way too seriously.  Calm down go play another game and when ToR comes out play it and decide if you like it.

wolffin

I don't belive this game will flop. Bioware has to many fans, the IP has to many fans.