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Game will "Flop" harder than RIFT did...
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While it may be hard to do for launch, this is how I'd like to see an MMO evolve, introducing new playstyles and features aimed at expanding the demographics of the game over time. This would go a long way at keeping a product fresh, and maintaining a growing playerbase.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
I am not so sure that the Star wars fans will like it, the game is rather gear focused. But if they just get half the Bioware fans play it they still have 1,5 million players so I agree, just like a Blizzard game it takes a lot to make a Bioware game flop.
I am sure this game will have at least half a million players permanent, probably at least twice that number. Bioware is still one of the most popular developers out there. Add a few SW fans and ex Wow players and the game should do fine.
OP might need to puff,puff pass because Rift is doing quite well, considerably better than most. Now Earthrise however is a flop.
I understand the business logic behind the modern game industry. I know it's safe to invest in something proven, that's all well and good.
What is troubling though is when players start repeating those same excuses. How can we ever claim that a sandbox game can never be as huge as wow when there never was a sandbox game as polished as wow.
Like someone said already, MMOs were a niche before wow and no big studio would invest in developing one, but then WoW, would you look at that. Now if only someone would make a sandbox wow (polished, streamlined, responsive) and we're good for another 5-10 years.
Like I said many a time allready, The Sims, Minecraft.
To OP, Rift did not flop, it is just not fun game to play.
Simply unproven and , I think, simply untrue.
Themeparks are just (in theory) cheaper due to the fact that they can have smaller more linear worlds, padded out by a few raids and BGs and sold to a proven market, so more get built to maximise proifits with less risk.
There is no proof that a major Dev built AAA sandbox would be niche in the modern market because there isnt one to point to.
And yes, I am aware SWtoR's budget isnt cheap, and no I have no idea where the money has gone either (voice overs and CGI trailers can't be THAT expensive...)
What every dumbfounded discussion like this fails to communicate (even after its been reiterated thousands of times) is that WoW copied EVERYTHING that it is today. NOT ONE THING IN WOW IS UNIQUE
So once the feeble minded "WoW is everything to MMORPGs" realize this simple fact, I dont see how people can expect, that along with these narrow minded discussion threads, to be taken seriously.
Moving on-
Subs in NA are estimated at 2.5mil in Wow (since I'm from NA, those are the only numbers I'm interested in), if you take into consideration only active subs and remove the adds of those subscribers with multiple accounts you are looking at less than 1mil on the US server that actually play the game (some sites estimate only 50-70% of the 1mil active subs still play the game while the rest only maintain active accounts). MMORPG subs are HIGHLY inflated and completely unrealistic due to the lack of a baseline mechanic for tracking from title to title.
TBH... I hope, as you put it, the "Game will flop". There will be more active NA subs than WoW at release, that much is almost certain (based on preorders alone). The complexity that this game brings and the pure depth of gameplay it offers will deter MANY kids and undesirables, keeping SWTOR fun for the rest of us.
Success for MMOs is numbers but not peak numbers as often advertised. It's based on maintaining numbers. If you have 2mil at release and 6mo later you have 1.5mil remaining of that original 2mil, the game can be considered successful. If that number increases after 6mo to 2.5mil, but you only maintain .5mil of your original customer base, you are not as successful due to the fact that the new 2mil subs are highly volatile and may leave within the next 6mo (75% retention rate vs a 25% retention rate). Similar to companies reducing the rate of customer turnover. (unless your SOE where you dont care about customers or making numbers)
In terms of the hype, this simply stems from the "slap in the face" we endured with SWG:NGE. If you look at the MMO timelines, it wasnt until the fall of SWG that WoWs numbers skyrocketed. SOE already killed the rest of their MMOs, and with few competitors, pushed there customer base to WoW. The anticipation of an MMO that does the StarWars franchise the justice it deserves is enough to peak the interest in enough gamers to reach record sales on opening day. Not to mention the large number of SW collectors that will purchase the game and never play...of which will also skew the numbers in the favor of subs.
Maintaining interest is what will make it or break it. Rift has more WAR specific dynamics than WoW specific dynamics, this is where a good amount of interest waned after only a few months. This is the only aspect that Blizzard got right with WoW and why it has been so successful. The ability to maintain numbers determines whether you sink or swim in this genre. IMHO if anyone other than SOE was behind the Everquest franchise, I think it could easily still be the 800lb gorilla in the room.
So the only comparison I can see for ANY game to WoW, is staying power. Whether there is enough "to do" to keep the originating base happy between releases and fixes will be determined in due time. All of these comparisons throughout the forums are speculation at best and highly controversial.
Opinions abound here: I think it will be successful. The companies backing this release have rarely disappointed where Blizzard, Trion, SOE have time and time again. The reputations at hand are what sustains the interest and high expectations. "Industry Standards" as you so eloquently put it, have been in place in every MMO since the days of MUDs and OTP CoOps. The differences are only in the implementations of these "standards" and how the feedback from the fanbase is considered in tweaking the dynamics already in place in every MMORPG.
Your sandbox question can easily be answered reasonably by looking at the market evolution over the last 10 years, more specifically the last 3 years. Sandbox titles will thrive while there will always be a large market for full MMOs. As the market becomes more saturated with F2P and other sandbox dominant models, it looks like many will continue to lean towards the sandbox platform because of its low maintenance and speed of deployment. There will, however, be a strong market for fully developed MMOs worldwide but, due to the longer time to market requirements, expectations will become ever increasing, making it more difficult for them to be successful.
Well... First off, Rift hasn't "flopped". If one discounts Blizzards WoW (which I suspect even Blizzard will have a difficult time replicating with their next MMO Titan), its doing rather well. Of course, they have had pretty much the same spike, fall off that has become common with most major MMO's these days. Part of that is the state of MMO's, and part of that is the nature of the gaming population these days.
As for TOR, I suspect they will see pretty much the same. But given the nature of the game, they will likely retain more than enough players to be profitable. Any investor that expects anyone (even Blizzard itself) to duplicate the success of WoW is a fool, and a fool and their money are soon parted... ^^
As for a "sandbox" type game, if that includes FFA PvP, its just not going to happen in the western markets. There is MUCH less toleration of ganking and griefing in the modern western markets, than in the eastern markets. Thats been demonstrated several times already.
Well, my thoughts are that your OP is fundamentally flawed because Rift, from a commericial perspective, isnt a flop.
Sure, from a gameplay one it might be considered such, but I am a firm believe that if a game is what it aims to be (which rift is) then it's a success.
So obviously I find it kind of hard to give any more credit to your point... but in the spirit of joining in I will say, despite my own personal reservations about SWtoR, it will sell by the boatload and make EA a ton of cash and it is exactly the game BW wanted to make, so it won't be a 'flop' on either point.
I mean it's a patchy strangely unambitious effort IMO but it won't be a flop.
hey Nostradamus, who is going to win the next Superbowl, what will the score be, and what are the next winning lottery numbers going to be?
In your dreams, hahahaha. Comparing a porche to a chevette.... lmao, rofl, someone pick me up the OP is a raging comedian tonight.
Rift flopped? I thought it was doing fine?
PS I don't play it, tried in beta and it was fine it just wasn't what I wanted now.
OP is a little high or martian or something.
Its the only explanation, now as to if he or she will "like" the game thats another matter, but it wont be a flop that much I am sure of.
I think you underestimate the power of a well established IP and developer with one of the largest video game publishers of all time.
Sure, in essence, the games are pretty much going to cover the exact same ground, but marketing and the game simply being Star Wars will pretty much guarantee that they'll at least recoup losses.
"Don't share the popular opinion? You're a troll!"
Actually, imo, both Rift and SWtoR are chevettes, they are very comparable in most ways and have a tonin common.
SWtoR just happens to an expensively upholstered and heavily advertised chevette is all.
op you killing my eyes! stop this yellow-black eyecancerness! on topic: i'll play swotor if its at the gamescom i will tell you later if it flops or not. Everyone who hasnt play the game should kindly shut the f*ck up.
Well that's silly. Are you implying that it's impossible to form an opinion on a game with the information that has been released so far?
Just like Blizzard before they released WoW, everyone keeps discounting the possible influx of tons of Bioware gamers who don't play MMOs, with the potential of adding tons of new MMO addicts and allowing TOR to maintain subs in the millions just like WoW.
Not sure that I would call Rift a flop for a game based on a non existent ip it seemed to be doing ok. Not really sure if the hype surrounding it really suggests what you say in that it was supposed to top WoW, did some of the games followers think that? Probably but nothing wrong with hope I say.
Having been around the block as far as mmorpg's go really doesn't mean all that much around here (I suspect) most people who bother to read and post here are pretty passionate about mmorpg's so you are probably one of many here who simply has an opinion.
For my two cents I don't see how the game flops (unless it never see's the light of day). I still load up Baldurs Gate 1 and 2,Mass Effect 2 and Dragon Age 1 so I know I'll be a satisfied customer.
It does actually annoy me when people that havent played the game debate with people who obviously actually have, quoting marketing spin from EA as 'proof' while dismissing obvious first hand experiencees of others.
I actually agree with Mith to an extent.
{mod edit}
Well then maybe it'd be best to just delete the forums and information posted on unreleased games. Or maybe make an exclusive section of the forums where only the super-top-secret people can talk amongst themselves so that they never get an outside opinion on anything?
It's not like Bioware is going against the flow of things here. If you honestly believe that people shouldn't offer objecting opinions on something that's really not all that foreign, then I dunno - maybe it's you that need the friends.
Also, I'm pretty sure sharing an account during beta (and often times during launch) is against the ToS. I'd imagine Bioware's ToS is similar to that of other games.
well, it would actually be easier if alot of people learned to listen rather then just talk.
Not everyone's opinion is as educated as each others on every subject and if someone gets the feeling that the other guy might know more then them it is normally sensible to shhh a bit and learn something.
Questions are more valuable then statements when the other guy knows more.
Not everyone is a special little snowflake with an equal opinion on every subject.
Yep,I think this is a valid point.
The two brands this game has attached will def bring in new players by the truckload.
Rift was never supposed to "kill" WoW. The game's population is fine. Have a nice day.
Joined 2004 - I can't believe I've been a MMORPG.com member for 20 years! Get off my lawn!
The reason why I stopped playing Rift two weeks after I bought it was because I had to repeat the 3 first quests in the game forever, because the game world was artificial straight line just for the XP grind and overall the world felt unknown and lifeless.
I dont understand this would be clone talk since most who use that term dont know what they are talking about. It's amazing how FPS games and RTS games are not called clones according to this logic, when most of the gameplay and features are always similar or exactly like the last one, no one ever whines about it, and there's a reason for it, a game is a lot more than it's gameplay, UI, or inventory.
Like Rift, if they had made immersive, not 100% linear, and interesting world, several starting locations and big bustling cities or something similar to make you feel like you were in a big world, and quests that does not insult me as a player, I'd propably still play it. Come on, the game has a couple of cities that are a couple of square meters in size, a questing system that makes you collect rabbit ears and kill 10 in a straight linear line untill you hit level cap-grind. All that is different in TOR along with the better setting, huge initial world and scifi for a change after all these dozens of fail fantasy mmorpgs.
My thoughts are that you are ignorant, dont look at facts and are a fan of some other game and try to throw dirt on TOR like every other GW2/XXX/ZZZ fan. It's the story of the forums on this site, and you are no different.