Short Version: I raise my crystal ball forecast from 3 months to 4 to 5.
Long Version:
even to this day i still question SWTORS longevity which to me is part of its formula to be successful.
the "200 hours of gameplay" will be tossed around til the cows come home, some will play straight through and cry due to hitting end game with in a week, thats also counting on them not trying out other parts of the game that contributes to the x amount of hours played...ya, lulz.
lets star with 200 hrs of gameplay thats class story only. So unless u dont wanna finish your class story u will do that much at least.
Then u have 17 planets with there own stories. u have warzones ,flashpoints u can run from level 8 to 50, end game heroic quests and dailies. a pvp planets, 11 planets with pvp contested zones, u have operations u have hard modes on all the flashpoints. u have a planet dedicated to single players at end gam eand u have 7 more class tories of 200 plus hrs.
Lets get this straight the 200 hrs is the class story and nothing else. They dont count u doing anythng else into that 200 hrs or gameplay just your class story.
I think it will enjoy being a huge success at launch and then within 3-6 months it will decline sharply because developers always overestimate how long it will take players to overcome content.
I think splitting the community in two at launch like they have done is a massive mistake and will likely not be forgiven particularly if the game has shortcomings.
I think long term it willstruggle to attract new players (as old ones leave) as the story elements (a major part of the game) are spoiled and revealed more and more post launch.
Likely to have a great launch and drop off greatly past the first month. Why? People lose interest for whatever reason and return to the MMO they came from.
Also to those saying this should/will dethrone wow. Think for a moment of what you are saying. You are saying you want a new premium standard for MMOs; A new standard that is slightly upgraded from before. That’s consumer treason and you should be ashamed of yourselves for letting faboyism get he best of you like that. You are saying you hope this game a game exactly like WoW in most ways should take its place. Had you said it for a better MMO i might let it slide but c'mon. This taking the throne would be the equivalent of the despot putting on a mask.
WoWs already going down on its own so let the throne lay empty. Let the good ideas roll free of a template that publishers can rip off and order developers to make.
Your hope may not have eny effect but it says what you want; and thats what worries me.
I think you'll find that the number of people actually saying that SWTOR or GW2 for that matter will dethrone WoW, are only a tiny fraction of the people who're actually interested in those games, so that's the wrong argument to counter.
What most people think is that SWTOR will do well, and personally I expect that if an MMO from a new, unknown franchise from an unknown company like Rift can attract over 1 million MMO gamers, then an MMO with Star Wars as franchise and Bioware as developer is likely to do a hell of a lot better. Plus that a worldsize 10 times the size of Rift and a lot more content makes it also likelier that people will stick around longer in SWTOR than in Rift.
Next, you're making the assumption that when someone tires of WoW, that those persons tire of all themepark MMO's, which is also a wrong assumption to make. Many people have grown tired of this or that MMO or game while still liking other games that fall into the same genre.
You're talking about hope, but it seems to me that it's more your own wishful thinking and hoping that SWTOR won't be successful that is speaking, instead of basing your speculations on real facts. We'll see how things will turn out, I guess.
Originally posted by TheCrow2k
I think it will enjoy being a huge success at launch and then within 3-6 months it will decline sharply because developers always overestimate how long it will take players to overcome content.
I think long term it willstruggle to attract new players (as old ones leave) as the story elements (a major part of the game) are spoiled and revealed more and more post launch.
I keep finding this type of argument when it's used by people odd and an underestimation of history.
Reaching level cap and finishing questing in a lot of MMO's like WoW and LotrO and such was done within a few months, yet you see whole masses of MMO gamers playing those themepark MMO's for years. Something that according to themepark opponents or other people who use this kind of argument, should be impossible. Well, the past 6 years have proven that it's not impossible: people have been enjoying themepark MMO's for a lot more months and years than the content would need to be finished off.
Apparently, as everyone should have thought through themselves, there are other factors that play a more important role.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Maybe but bioware due to story expects more players to re roll then the normal mmo. They also are already working on what they want to put in there next expac and patch.
So while they fine tune the game for beta testing and release they are already working on new content . They have a big plan and i expect more people to re roll due to story then most expect.
I think the 3-6 month thing doesnt take into account bioware story and choice in an mmo and the desire of players to re roll to see the other class stories. Never underestimate the power of story and choice in an mmo.
its never been done on this level . if its anywher near as good a story as mass effect and dragon age games people will re roll more then in normal mmo's
Likely to have a great launch and drop off greatly past the first month. Why? People lose interest for whatever reason and return to the MMO they came from.
Also to those saying this should/will dethrone wow. Think for a moment of what you are saying. You are saying you want a new premium standard for MMOs; A new standard that is slightly upgraded from before. That’s consumer treason and you should be ashamed of yourselves for letting faboyism get he best of you like that. You are saying you hope this game a game exactly like WoW in most ways should take its place. Had you said it for a better MMO i might let it slide but c'mon. This taking the throne would be the equivalent of the despot putting on a mask.
WoWs already going down on its own so let the throne lay empty. Let the good ideas roll free of a template that publishers can rip off and order developers to make.
Your hope may not have eny effect but it says what you want; and thats what worries me.
I think you'll find that the number of people actually saying that SWTOR or GW2 for that matter will dethrone WoW, are only a tiny fraction of the people who're actually interested in those games, so that's the wrong argument to counter.
What most people think is that SWTOR will do well, and personally I expect that if an MMO from a new, unknown franchise from an unknown company like Rift can attract over 1 million MMO gamers, then an MMO with Star Wars as franchise and Bioware as developer is likely to do a hell of a lot better. Plus that a worldsize 10 times the size of Rift and a lot more content makes it also likelier that people will stick around longer in SWTOR than in Rift.
Next, you're making the assumption that when someone tires of WoW, that those persons tire of all themepark MMO's, which is also a wrong assumption to make. Many people have grown tired of this or that MMO or game while still liking other games that fall into the same genre.
You're talking about hope, but it seems to me that it's more your own wishful thinking and hoping that SWTOR won't be successful that is speaking, instead of basing your speculations on real facts. We'll see how things will turn out, I guess.
I want it to succeed just not so it becomes the new Warcraft in terms of popularity. THAT would be bad for us because it means several things are on the horizon.
- More themepark MMOs staying in the limelight
-even fewer varying MMOs being made
- Same lower amount of players in competing MMOs because we have the mega-mmo sponging up all the players because "all my friends joined" or "its th only way i can have an active guild"(both clearly self defeating arguments)
A major fault with themepark MMO dev teams is they assume they all must include the standard hotkey combat. (not my ENTIRE argument but an example of mechanics barred entry due to the games nature) and that makes the MMO market stagnate furthur. Because we have that king sitting on the throne looking rich we have otehrs wanting to mimic him in every way. Be it they think its required or because they expect it to be a great key to sucess in its own right.
Now as to GW2 "Oh i hope it beats WoW" that’s a less dangerous form of ignorance because GW2 cannot beat WoW in that they are in different leagues. GW2 can get as popular as WoW all it wants but it won't make a difference because the two are on different spectrums. But you already know that.
It is best for the industry the MMO throne remains an dusty empty seat never to be filled.
the "200 hours of gameplay" will be tossed around til the cows come home, some will play straight through and cry due to hitting end game with in a week, thats also counting on them not trying out other parts of the game that contributes to the x amount of hours played...ya, lulz.
Havent they already said that the 200 hours is JUST your individual storyline, not including anything on the side?
the "200 hours of gameplay" will be tossed around til the cows come home, some will play straight through and cry due to hitting end game with in a week, thats also counting on them not trying out other parts of the game that contributes to the x amount of hours played...ya, lulz.
Havent they already said that the 200 hours is JUST your individual storyline, not including anything on the side?
Yes it is just a stroyline, 200 hours doesn't include other content.
However, that is what bioware said but i could be wrong.
the "200 hours of gameplay" will be tossed around til the cows come home, some will play straight through and cry due to hitting end game with in a week, thats also counting on them not trying out other parts of the game that contributes to the x amount of hours played...ya, lulz.
Havent they already said that the 200 hours is JUST your individual storyline, not including anything on the side?
Yes it is just a stroyline, 200 hours doesn't include other content.
Yes they said that,
Just that me personally, im in ill believe it when i experience it mode, with a plate a crow and A-1 steak sauce on the side if what they say holds water when i play the game.
I want it to succeed just not so it becomes the new Warcraft in terms of popularity. THAT would be bad for us because it means several things are on the horizon.
- More themepark MMOs staying in the limelight
-even fewer varying MMOs being made
- Same lower amount of players in competing MMOs because we have the mega-mmo sponging up all the players because "all my friends joined" or "its th only way i can have an active guild"(both clearly self defeating arguments)
A major fault with themepark MMO dev teams is they assume they all must include the standard hotkey combat.
Now as to GW2 "Oh i hope it beats WoW" that’s a less dangerous form of ignorance because GW2 cannot beat WoW in that they are in different leagues. GW2 can get as popular as WoW all it wants but it won't make a difference because the two are on different spectrums. But you already know that.
I don't see SWTOR becoming the new WoW, nor I suspect anyone else (or well, maybe 1% does), at least when it comes to subs.
Maybe if no other MMO's would release, or only of the type of a Rift or Aion or FFXIV or DCUO.
Yet, we have GW2, TSW, TERA, Blade & Soul, Firefall, Arche Age, Planetside 2 and World of Darkness, so I don't think that anyone has to worry about MMO diversity at the top.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
They have stated on multiple occasions that 1 part of your 3 part class story larger then mass effect or dragon age story in and of itself thats how much story for just class they have.
So if u played those game think of it as 3 times mass effect or 3 times the content u had in dragon age origins.
Look be pessimistic if u want but they have been testing this for a while now and they have tested by changing exp gains and looss they have the data to prove it.
Not to beat a dead horse but 8 diffrent class stories with very little cross over. im sure some quests may be the same on the same side but having not played it not sure
they have stated if u do a couselor and then do a bounty hunter u have 0 quests the same. 0 as far as class story take into account 17 major planets and even more minor ones and this game has plenty of content to keep people busy .
id settle for 5-6 mil in tor 5-6 mil in gw 2 and maybe 3-5 in rift and secret life maybe then we would get a wide variety of mmos
hope archage and other sandboxes hit the 1-4 mil range and gamers would be in gamer heaven.
For the long term ? No way. I say 3-6 months then they will be looking elswhere.
You HAVE seen what they are planning for PvP, right? Based on that alone, I would say there will be a substantial PvP population that will stick with the PvP for a long time to come.
For the long term ? No way. I say 3-6 months then they will be looking elswhere.
You HAVE seen what they are planning for PvP, right? Based on that alone, I would say there will be a substantial PvP population that will stick with the PvP for a long time to come.
The large mass of MMO players is not PVP-centric, thas investing too much out of the gate in PVP will kill this game quicker than you might think.
WoW did not had a PVP system for a year, the honor system was intreduced way after the End Game content became viable, and the BG's came even later.
All early WoW PVP was either open-world gank based(I miss World of Roguecarft, and TM-SS server crashing raids so much) or city gates duels.
Heck look how long it took them to implement the Arena system and improve it.
IMO PVP is one of the things that killed WoW for me.. Heck its the singular thing that made me quit wow, not because i dont like PVP but because i do not think that PVP should dictate how they ballance my classes, and how i need to play them. And yes im a rogue in heart, and no i dont think that the indirect and direct rogue nerfs were that bad in PVP, they just killed rogues in PVE who from the highest pure DPS class, and the most played class were turned too medicore pure DPS cant do any thing else, "were behind mages, hunters, DK's, even some paladins now" class which lead them to be(and for quite a while now) the least played class in WoW. And yes the only reason for those PVE nerfs was because rogues were too powerfull in PVP for a long long time...
You cannot ballance classes propperly in PVP and PVE, thats why with D3 Blizzard completly sperated the skil trees and abilities, you will have different abilites and attributes for PVP arenas than in the open PVE world, and those that will be shared will act differently, and that IMO is the best way to implement PVP in an MMO game today, you can make any changes you want to ther PVE ballance and it will not affect the PVP one and vise versa - thats pure gold.
You'd have to be an idiot not to believe it'll be a financial 'success'. Whether it'll be a success as an mmo, ie. a good/great mmo experience which can keep players hooked for years is an entirely different question.
Now at gamescon this past week; they said weekends starting in the fall. (When BW gives you a window instead of a solid date, it means they pushed it back.)
I'm losing faith in TOR's future. Yeah; the game has to come out first, but if it's taking us this long to see the game, how long will it take us to see an expansion? Since they have so much content it's already going to almost double the production time it takes Blizzard to produce a new expansion.
Beta weekends start September 2nd. People are already getting invites, there are even threads in this specific forum where people are talking about their invites.
I believe this game will do very well IMO. Bioware and Star Wars IMHO is win win. I also believe it will do very well long term as long as they continue to pump out new content.
**The Raving Rabbid is Back and aiming a plunger....at You!**
Success, aha. Short term success, sure. They'll probably win more than their investment back on box sales alone. But after 3 months? 6 months? a year? Five years? More?
I doubt it will be anywhere near as successfull as WoW, but it might beat Rift quite handsomely. But since Rift has only been around for 6 months, who knows? It's easier to "fail" than to "succeed" in the long run. But then again, once you made a profit you can't really call it a failure anymore can you? Or do all games eventually fail because nobody plays them anymore?
Your question is far from clear cut.
Edit: Typo
Waiting for Guild Wars 2, and maybe SWTOR until that time...
Part of WoW's success wasn't just that it was mass marketed on a global scale; the players marketed the living hell out of it to everyone they knew as well. On top of that, the game was so easy to get into, the biggest rookie gamer could adapt to it easily on the cheapest build. The idea of expecting a game to come along and completely wipe out another is highly unrealistic; that's never actually happened. If a game fails; it fails because it had a horrible design, like Tabula Rasa.
That being said, I think The Old Republic will do fine on it's own. I do not feel that it will be revolutionary; but, it is definitly going to appeal to the casual gamer very easily, because it's an epic bioware RPG; but, with a plus, you can group with friends! I see it going up in the top 5 five MMOs on the market very quickly; which is good enough by my standards. If they intend to keep it up on the top bracket it will require frequent updates by the development team, I just hope they realize that intial development was the easy part, the hard part is keeping it fresh.
My biggest concern at the moment is what they plan to do with the end game. It's a story driven MMO; so, what's to keep a person who is drawn to the story, playing once they completed their epic story arc and became lord of the universe?
The only thing I could even think they could do, would be to release periodic (monthly) content; but, not even WoW can do that and every MMO that has claimed that they would do that has failed at it miserably.
I don't have any unrealistic expectations for the game; that leaves me with a lot of room to be surprised.
It's easier to "fail" than to "succeed" in the long run. But then again, once you made a profit you can't really call it a failure anymore can you? Or do all games eventually fail because nobody plays them anymore?
Your question is far from clear cut.
Edit: Typo
hahahaha yes the same problem i have with my friend that says that SWG failed and thats why its closing, but he says that lotro is successful cus is alive and that make me laugh
fan of SWG, XCOM, Defiance, Global Agenda, Need For Speed, all Star Wars single player games. And waiting the darn STAR CITIZEN
Success is as long as the servers are up and running and making enough profit to sustain itself. But then for majority of players here success means 10+ million subs.
The day the servers close down i will agree with your 'long term : no' comment.
Success, aha. Short term success, sure. They'll probably win more than their investment back on box sales alone. But after 3 months? 6 months? a year? Five years? More?
I doubt it will be anywhere near as successfull as WoW, but it might beat Rift quite handsomely. But since Rift has only been around for 6 months, who knows? It's easier to "fail" than to "succeed" in the long run. But then again, once you made a profit you can't really call it a failure anymore can you? Or do all games eventually fail because nobody plays them anymore?
Your question is far from clear cut.
Edit: Typo
This is about how I feel about the game. People have a limit on what they will tolerate in terms of familiarity in games, and SWTOR strolls the beaten path because that's what would be most profitable without as much work. The SW IP only strenghtens those odds. It's a short term no-brainer that it will be anything but a "failure", but to my knowledge, no one has a crystal ball here to see past the obvious.
Success, aha. Short term success, sure. They'll probably win more than their investment back on box sales alone. But after 3 months? 6 months? a year? Five years? More?
I doubt it will be anywhere near as successfull as WoW, but it might beat Rift quite handsomely. But since Rift has only been around for 6 months, who knows? It's easier to "fail" than to "succeed" in the long run. But then again, once you made a profit you can't really call it a failure anymore can you? Or do all games eventually fail because nobody plays them anymore?
Your question is far from clear cut.
Edit: Typo
Of course a game can be seen as a failure, even if it makes a profit.
Comments
lets star with 200 hrs of gameplay thats class story only. So unless u dont wanna finish your class story u will do that much at least.
Then u have 17 planets with there own stories. u have warzones ,flashpoints u can run from level 8 to 50, end game heroic quests and dailies. a pvp planets, 11 planets with pvp contested zones, u have operations u have hard modes on all the flashpoints. u have a planet dedicated to single players at end gam eand u have 7 more class tories of 200 plus hrs.
Lets get this straight the 200 hrs is the class story and nothing else. They dont count u doing anythng else into that 200 hrs or gameplay just your class story.
I think it will enjoy being a huge success at launch and then within 3-6 months it will decline sharply because developers always overestimate how long it will take players to overcome content.
I think splitting the community in two at launch like they have done is a massive mistake and will likely not be forgiven particularly if the game has shortcomings.
I think long term it willstruggle to attract new players (as old ones leave) as the story elements (a major part of the game) are spoiled and revealed more and more post launch.
I think you'll find that the number of people actually saying that SWTOR or GW2 for that matter will dethrone WoW, are only a tiny fraction of the people who're actually interested in those games, so that's the wrong argument to counter.
What most people think is that SWTOR will do well, and personally I expect that if an MMO from a new, unknown franchise from an unknown company like Rift can attract over 1 million MMO gamers, then an MMO with Star Wars as franchise and Bioware as developer is likely to do a hell of a lot better. Plus that a worldsize 10 times the size of Rift and a lot more content makes it also likelier that people will stick around longer in SWTOR than in Rift.
Next, you're making the assumption that when someone tires of WoW, that those persons tire of all themepark MMO's, which is also a wrong assumption to make. Many people have grown tired of this or that MMO or game while still liking other games that fall into the same genre.
You're talking about hope, but it seems to me that it's more your own wishful thinking and hoping that SWTOR won't be successful that is speaking, instead of basing your speculations on real facts. We'll see how things will turn out, I guess.
I keep finding this type of argument when it's used by people odd and an underestimation of history.
Reaching level cap and finishing questing in a lot of MMO's like WoW and LotrO and such was done within a few months, yet you see whole masses of MMO gamers playing those themepark MMO's for years. Something that according to themepark opponents or other people who use this kind of argument, should be impossible. Well, the past 6 years have proven that it's not impossible: people have been enjoying themepark MMO's for a lot more months and years than the content would need to be finished off.
Apparently, as everyone should have thought through themselves, there are other factors that play a more important role.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Maybe but bioware due to story expects more players to re roll then the normal mmo. They also are already working on what they want to put in there next expac and patch.
So while they fine tune the game for beta testing and release they are already working on new content . They have a big plan and i expect more people to re roll due to story then most expect.
I think the 3-6 month thing doesnt take into account bioware story and choice in an mmo and the desire of players to re roll to see the other class stories. Never underestimate the power of story and choice in an mmo.
its never been done on this level . if its anywher near as good a story as mass effect and dragon age games people will re roll more then in normal mmo's
I want it to succeed just not so it becomes the new Warcraft in terms of popularity. THAT would be bad for us because it means several things are on the horizon.
- More themepark MMOs staying in the limelight
-even fewer varying MMOs being made
- Same lower amount of players in competing MMOs because we have the mega-mmo sponging up all the players because "all my friends joined" or "its th only way i can have an active guild"(both clearly self defeating arguments)
A major fault with themepark MMO dev teams is they assume they all must include the standard hotkey combat. (not my ENTIRE argument but an example of mechanics barred entry due to the games nature) and that makes the MMO market stagnate furthur. Because we have that king sitting on the throne looking rich we have otehrs wanting to mimic him in every way. Be it they think its required or because they expect it to be a great key to sucess in its own right.
Now as to GW2 "Oh i hope it beats WoW" that’s a less dangerous form of ignorance because GW2 cannot beat WoW in that they are in different leagues. GW2 can get as popular as WoW all it wants but it won't make a difference because the two are on different spectrums. But you already know that.
It is best for the industry the MMO throne remains an dusty empty seat never to be filled.
Yes it is just a stroyline, 200 hours doesn't include other content.
However, that is what bioware said but i could be wrong.
Yes they said that,
Just that me personally, im in ill believe it when i experience it mode, with a plate a crow and A-1 steak sauce on the side if what they say holds water when i play the game.
I don't see SWTOR becoming the new WoW, nor I suspect anyone else (or well, maybe 1% does), at least when it comes to subs.
Maybe if no other MMO's would release, or only of the type of a Rift or Aion or FFXIV or DCUO.
Yet, we have GW2, TSW, TERA, Blade & Soul, Firefall, Arche Age, Planetside 2 and World of Darkness, so I don't think that anyone has to worry about MMO diversity at the top.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
They have stated on multiple occasions that 1 part of your 3 part class story larger then mass effect or dragon age story in and of itself thats how much story for just class they have.
So if u played those game think of it as 3 times mass effect or 3 times the content u had in dragon age origins.
Look be pessimistic if u want but they have been testing this for a while now and they have tested by changing exp gains and looss they have the data to prove it.
Not to beat a dead horse but 8 diffrent class stories with very little cross over. im sure some quests may be the same on the same side but having not played it not sure
they have stated if u do a couselor and then do a bounty hunter u have 0 quests the same. 0 as far as class story take into account 17 major planets and even more minor ones and this game has plenty of content to keep people busy .
id settle for 5-6 mil in tor 5-6 mil in gw 2 and maybe 3-5 in rift and secret life maybe then we would get a wide variety of mmos
hope archage and other sandboxes hit the 1-4 mil range and gamers would be in gamer heaven.
You HAVE seen what they are planning for PvP, right? Based on that alone, I would say there will be a substantial PvP population that will stick with the PvP for a long time to come.
The large mass of MMO players is not PVP-centric, thas investing too much out of the gate in PVP will kill this game quicker than you might think.
WoW did not had a PVP system for a year, the honor system was intreduced way after the End Game content became viable, and the BG's came even later.
All early WoW PVP was either open-world gank based(I miss World of Roguecarft, and TM-SS server crashing raids so much) or city gates duels.
Heck look how long it took them to implement the Arena system and improve it.
IMO PVP is one of the things that killed WoW for me.. Heck its the singular thing that made me quit wow, not because i dont like PVP but because i do not think that PVP should dictate how they ballance my classes, and how i need to play them. And yes im a rogue in heart, and no i dont think that the indirect and direct rogue nerfs were that bad in PVP, they just killed rogues in PVE who from the highest pure DPS class, and the most played class were turned too medicore pure DPS cant do any thing else, "were behind mages, hunters, DK's, even some paladins now" class which lead them to be(and for quite a while now) the least played class in WoW. And yes the only reason for those PVE nerfs was because rogues were too powerfull in PVP for a long long time...
You cannot ballance classes propperly in PVP and PVE, thats why with D3 Blizzard completly sperated the skil trees and abilities, you will have different abilites and attributes for PVP arenas than in the open PVE world, and those that will be shared will act differently, and that IMO is the best way to implement PVP in an MMO game today, you can make any changes you want to ther PVE ballance and it will not affect the PVP one and vise versa - thats pure gold.
What a waste of time, so ill take it short
The success will be voted after the release by current subscriptions....
You'd have to be an idiot not to believe it'll be a financial 'success'. Whether it'll be a success as an mmo, ie. a good/great mmo experience which can keep players hooked for years is an entirely different question.
Beta weekends start September 2nd. People are already getting invites, there are even threads in this specific forum where people are talking about their invites.
Depends what someone consider a success.
It has a chance to stabilize around 1 mil of subs with some luck imho.
I missed you!!!
Success, aha. Short term success, sure. They'll probably win more than their investment back on box sales alone. But after 3 months? 6 months? a year? Five years? More?
I doubt it will be anywhere near as successfull as WoW, but it might beat Rift quite handsomely. But since Rift has only been around for 6 months, who knows? It's easier to "fail" than to "succeed" in the long run. But then again, once you made a profit you can't really call it a failure anymore can you? Or do all games eventually fail because nobody plays them anymore?
Your question is far from clear cut.
Edit: Typo
Waiting for Guild Wars 2, and maybe SWTOR until that time...
Part of WoW's success wasn't just that it was mass marketed on a global scale; the players marketed the living hell out of it to everyone they knew as well. On top of that, the game was so easy to get into, the biggest rookie gamer could adapt to it easily on the cheapest build. The idea of expecting a game to come along and completely wipe out another is highly unrealistic; that's never actually happened. If a game fails; it fails because it had a horrible design, like Tabula Rasa.
That being said, I think The Old Republic will do fine on it's own. I do not feel that it will be revolutionary; but, it is definitly going to appeal to the casual gamer very easily, because it's an epic bioware RPG; but, with a plus, you can group with friends! I see it going up in the top 5 five MMOs on the market very quickly; which is good enough by my standards. If they intend to keep it up on the top bracket it will require frequent updates by the development team, I just hope they realize that intial development was the easy part, the hard part is keeping it fresh.
My biggest concern at the moment is what they plan to do with the end game. It's a story driven MMO; so, what's to keep a person who is drawn to the story, playing once they completed their epic story arc and became lord of the universe?
The only thing I could even think they could do, would be to release periodic (monthly) content; but, not even WoW can do that and every MMO that has claimed that they would do that has failed at it miserably.
I don't have any unrealistic expectations for the game; that leaves me with a lot of room to be surprised.
hahahaha yes the same problem i have with my friend that says that SWG failed and thats why its closing, but he says that lotro is successful cus is alive and that make me laugh
I think it will do fine.
As long as they don't mess anything up with the game and it does have all the features it said it does then yes it will succeed.
They can easily mess up the game in less than a month though.
Short term: yes
Long term: no
SexuaLobster's Grease Portal
Success is as long as the servers are up and running and making enough profit to sustain itself. But then for majority of players here success means 10+ million subs.
The day the servers close down i will agree with your 'long term : no' comment.
This is about how I feel about the game. People have a limit on what they will tolerate in terms of familiarity in games, and SWTOR strolls the beaten path because that's what would be most profitable without as much work. The SW IP only strenghtens those odds. It's a short term no-brainer that it will be anything but a "failure", but to my knowledge, no one has a crystal ball here to see past the obvious.
Of course a game can be seen as a failure, even if it makes a profit.