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Let's predict retention/growth in six months!
Creslin321
Member Posts: 5,359
I think the real watermark of SWTOR's success or failure is going to be if it can retain or grow its player base after a significant amount of time. I believe there has not been a single themepark game since WoW to actually GROW in population from release, so if SWTOR can demonstrate growth it will mean something big.
So let's vote! Assuming that there are about 1.5 million subscribers now, where do you think SWTOR's subscriber numbers will be at in six months? The poll should be read as:
33% decline means that in six months there will be 67% of the current player base still subbed. 33% growth would mean that 133% of the current player base will be subbed.
Please comment so this doesn't sink to the bottom under the fanboi warz threads 
.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Comments
i think it may moderatly grow as it is very good after a marely short development time.
it has massive room for improvements and if BW is doing it right, it can grow.
let se what there will come the next months
I voted "Huge Decline" if for no other reason than history. SWTOR's strength is its story, but story is finite and most people will complete it within a few months. So that leaves the rest of the game.
And well, the rest of the game is pretty much standard WoW themepark with less features/polish than the real deal (WoW). And given how other games perform in retention, I don't see SWTOR as doing any different.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Unfortunately most improvements will be fought tooth and nail by the spergy fan base on the forums who tinge any integration of improvements with a comparison with their hate for WoW. Meanwhile they completely ignore the fact of the on-rails theme park nature of SW:TOR that would actually benefit from applying some of the lessons and refinements found in that "other game".
Games I've played/tried out:WAR, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, AoC, EQ1, EQ2, WoW, Vangaurd, FFXI, D&DO, Lineage 2, Saga Of Ryzom, EvE Online, DAoC, Guild Wars,Star Wars Galaxies, Hell Gate London, Auto Assault, Grando Espada ( AKA SoTNW ), Archlord, CoV/H, Star Trek Online, APB, Champions Online, FFXIV, Rift Online, GW2.
Game(s) I Am Currently Playing:
GW2 (+LoL and BF3)
Large decline.
Once the novelty wears off I believe many are going to become bored with the game especially with rerollers.
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
My vote is for a large decline. I see SWTOR doing similarly (but a bit better than) Rift.
It's main staying power is that it's Star Wars, and Star Wars fans are drawn to anything with a light saber. Most everyone else will get tired quickly and either return to their previous "go to" MMO or jump ship for any number of 2012 releases. They'll say they won't leave and that they love it, but after seeing the same hype/decline cycle occur for the last 5 years, I'll believe it when I see it.
EA have a huge vested interest in making this puppy fly, and they're not exactly virgins in the gaming market.
So far, they've run a world-class marketing effort all the way to launch day. There's no reason to believe that they'll stop that cold now that the game has launched.
I fully expect them to come up with some "shock and awe" moves in the next month or two, juuuust before the masses start murmuring too loudly. Perhaps the surprise announcement of a whole new planet to explore, at no additional charge ? There could be tons of content they have ready to roll, but simply held back at launch as "reserve ammo"...
Moderate growth. As word spreads from the people that play this game to others, we are going to see more subs in the next 6 months. The haters on this site are a vocal minority, but the proof is in the pudding , so to speak, as the true measure is how much fun the people who are playing it are having. And the verdict is overwhelmingly postive. As long as BW doesn't drop the ball in terms of endgame content and regular updates/fixes, then I see no reason this game won't have steady growth as people begin to pour in from games like WoW, Rift, and LOTRO. I speak from experience as I've personally gotten four of my ex-guildies into the game based on them hearing how much fun me and my friends had in vent playing. And they've loved the game and are spreading the word.
The word is out. The game is very good. And it will have long-term value if BW releases timely and solid content in the upcoming months.
would say there should be more decline options, not 50-80% , more like 40-60% or so.. in between
this game sadly have no future, my 33lvl guardian is already parked in eternal sleep, and i wont be activating full game
pve is bad, its just bad, story is fun, but couple hours of story will never be worth doing so much grinding, and copy pasted quests, zones are mirrors, you thought classes were mirrors? every planet starting with third planet is copy of oposing faction, it might not be same planet at all, but it will be based aroundsame thing ,
i couldnt just feel i did all of this as empire , while playing republic, sure it had different name, random enemy had different skin and name, but it was same, based around same, wait will you get into same planets, thats total mirror, tatoinee is basicaly same for both factions
first couple quests are exactly same, main planet story ( not class story ) is almost same , half random kill/free quests are same , i could say there were different. yes empire quests were group ones, but that was in beta, and maybe 4+ quest became 2+ and 2+ became solo for release , for empire too, not just republic, but even if not thats same stuff..
every space station on every planet is same, i never in my life saw any kind of transportation station that are same, or even similar, yet across every galaxy every station is same?
i could go on and on
Decline of 20-30%. Sinple reason there are already unsub post. Also look at some of the half assed reasons people quit Rift...ward drobe colors not matching or death penalty was not permanent.
People will unsub it is just a reality and every themepark on the market is taking a hard hit thanks to the F2P craze and release of pretty damn good console games. I do not think TOR is immune to the same drama Rift had and when people do realize most of your /played time is at end game is when the back lash sets in.
Also not to mention GW2 is moving in as competition to established mmorpgs like TOR/EQ2/Rift/WoW and not just trying to be the side game. Essentially ArenaNET has called out every dev in the market right now.
You contradict yourself, simply by admitting you got to level 33 in just 7 days time.
Which also implies you went too fast for your own good, and now blame the game for it (lol).
I voted Large Decline. I like the game and the story, but just don't feel that I will be playing it in a couple months. Especially when some of the more innovative titles like GW2, Secret World, and Archeage coming out. I mainly playing the game as a filler game until something with long term appeal is released. I suspect that I am not alone...
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I will play no more MMORPGs until somethign good comes out!
It will take the typical hit, then slowly grow, in time. It is a good game and will be the new going back to game when other games don t pan out.
Why do people do this? Just about every game is analyzed to death. And it is always "doomed" for failure in less 6 months.
Can't people just enjoy a game.
Most act as if it is thier money that went into designing a game. And ALWAYS know more than the people who developed it.
Maybe because we're at work and can't play
?
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
The game will still be growing in 6 months for a few major reasons. One its will be releasing fully in australia and new zealand at that time
They are still slowlty releasing this game to new areas i also expect them to be pretty agressive with content updates, maybe not as good as rift , really how many devs are that fast, But they will do a good job of churning out content.
i have a few characters and im gonna level all classes to max level. Thats my biggest thing with tor, i want to make alts for each class story , sure the 4th time im doing a planetary quest line i may be space baring the planetary vo, But im gonna still do them again.
im enjoying my pace, i will say this most casuals dont have max level characters yet hell most dont even have 30s. ive been playng a week i got a 24 sith inquistior, a 12 jedi counselor wiht gf, a 7 trooper with gf, and a 4 agent, im gonna play on a light server so to avoid the que for my inquisitor if im playing alone
so ill be lucky to hit max level by new years. on one guy. That said im loving tor and even if i get 8 characters to max level in 6 months i have pvp, flashpoints, operations to do plus whatever new solo end game stuff they add, which when they add a new planet will exist.
so i think tor will continue to grow.
It's hard to say, in 6 months who knows what state the game will be in, as it largely depends on Bioware's ability in expanding the game, and keeping it fresh.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
I voted moderate growth. I think there are a lot ot people waiting to see what happens after the big launch day crush and if it will retain people. After that more will join as they get sick of WoW and the pandas. GW2 will have NO bearing on SWTOR's subs because it is a B2P game. Many of the SWTOR players interested in GW2 will play both for that reason.
50-60% retention after the first month then growth for the next 6-9 months, with a slight decline. This is barring any major releases or expansions during that time.
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Large growth. With lots of content and features being added over the next few months, SWTOR will expand at an alarming rate I reckon.
My guess, large decline to the level where Rift is now (anywhere between 100k - 400k).
REALITY CHECK
Voted large decline. Without going viral like WoW did, it would take huge amounts of promotional money to keep it pumped. I'm not sure I see EA making that sort of investment. noted: I think they should if they want longevity, but in the end cash in the hand makes corporate types happy.
The reason I don't expect viral to drive growth is because I see MMORPGs as being "been there, done that" for entertainment oriented gamers. Without them, I don't see population growth.
I went with "large decline" because those unsub numbers seem about average for most MMOs six months after launch.
Well, the lookie-loos disappear in 30 days, unknown but probably substantial numbers.
The embittered--aren't most of them already gone? /cancel and /ragequit.
So like all other predictions, the ball seems to be (mostly) in the developer's court now.
Prediction threads are so futile a waste of space. The real world results are never as cynical as this board's results are.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
you can bet it will lose more then 60% of the actual player base, that is IF they release to all blocked zones
Large decline, also simply history of these games.
BUT, and this may be huge, if they can hit the 30 day mark with a fairly good end game infusion, and new UI fixes by 60 day, they will still have 6-800 k subs. with the possibility of growing it a bit if they can keep adding things every month or so.
The rest will leave no matter what, just the way this market is now, people treat every game as a single player game, and leave 30-60 days after starting them.