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Let's predict retention/growth in six months!

135

Comments

  • SavageoneSavageone Member UncommonPosts: 80

    Originally posted by Creslin321

    Originally posted by Savageone

    Why  do people do this? Just about every game is analyzed to death. And it is always "doomed" for failure in less 6 months.

    Can't people just enjoy a game.

     

    Most act as if it is thier money that went into designing a game. And ALWAYS know more than the people who developed it.

    Maybe because we're at work and can't play :)?

    Nice answer.....haha

  • LidaneLidane Member CommonPosts: 2,300



    Originally posted by Savageone
    Why  do people do this? Just about every game is analyzed to death. And it is always "doomed" for failure in less 6 months.
    Can't people just enjoy a game.

    On these boards? Please. Didn't you know? Around here, everyone's an expert.

  • TazlorTazlor Member UncommonPosts: 864

    Originally posted by Lidane

     






    Originally posted by Savageone

    Why  do people do this? Just about every game is analyzed to death. And it is always "doomed" for failure in less 6 months.

    Can't people just enjoy a game.



     

    On these boards? Please. Didn't you know? Around here, everyone's an expert.

    Ha! This is so true it's scary.

  • KenFisherKenFisher Member UncommonPosts: 5,035

    Originally posted by Creslin321

     

     Let's just say that I believe the speed of players consuming story content will greatly exceed the speed of developers creating it ;).

     

    I read an article on that exact subject.  Something like a team of 40 takes 2 years to develop enough content to keep an average player busy for two months... let alone the people who burn through it.

     

    It's no wonder the quality of content goes down as time constraints increase.

     

    "I am Hathor, king of the noble peoples.  I have an important task for one as brave as yourself.  Go collect 10 rat tails and take them to Aragroth."   *grin*


    Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security.  I don't Forum PVP.  If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident.  When I don't understand, I ask.  Such is not intended as criticism.
  • LoekiiLoekii Member Posts: 430

    Originally posted by OkhamsRazor

    Originally posted by Creslin321

    I voted "Huge Decline" if for no other reason than history.  SWTOR's strength is its story, but story is finite and most people will complete it within a few months.  So that leaves the rest of the game.

    And well, the rest of the game is pretty much standard WoW themepark with less features/polish than the real deal (WoW).  And given how other games perform in retention, I don't see SWTOR as doing any different.

    But its an mmo each patch will add extra content to the story . MMO are infinate by thier nature . Also dont forget each class has a different story and each story can be played differently . Ever heard of alts .

    Kind of makes your comments redundant .

    It would be, if developers continually and promptly released massive patches of content.    However, that is not the what we have seen in the market.   

     

    Large chunks of content are usually delivered in the form of Paid Expansions, which at best appear once a year.   Patches usually are extreemly light on content.

     

    Imo, I do not see people paying for all the months between story content additions.  Rather I see people cancelling their subs until the expansion is released, playing the new story, then going back on vacation from the game until the next content patch.

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  • Ambros123Ambros123 Member Posts: 877

    I put stagnat as I skimmed through the opost looking for a number of subs.  I think SWTOR will remain at 1-2 mill subs... I mean come on it's Star Wars for some folks...

    But I see a decline in subs though if looking strictly as growth and not numbers because as later MMOs release they will take away subs.  Sure some will return but there will be a significant amount not returning so I se no way for it to grow.  People are playing SWTOR simpely as a time killer like me.

    But it really falls upon how end-game is handled, if it's really good then sure there will be growth.  But I'll beleive that when I see it as many companies are out there with far more MMO experiance which I think the lack of MMO design experiance is already showing in SWTOR.

  • DannyGloverDannyGlover Member Posts: 1,277

    I'm inclined to believe that this game will see steady growth over the next 6 months. The morality choices, companion affection, and cut scenes showing your character converse the way you choose are the hooks for longevity. In my opinion, I think that a lot of people will grow more attached to their characters than in other mmos because of the features I mentioned above. They will want to stick around because they will feel that their character's worth goes beyond their gear.

    I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself and others that I am very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means - except by getting off his back.

  • nyxiumnyxium Member UncommonPosts: 1,345

    Needs to get its first expansion out fast. Then the people will stay and it may even attract more. I suggest scrapping space-on-rails and introducing an open spaceflight system. They should announce the first TOR expansion in about 6 months time, aiming for a launch within 12 to 18 months time.

  • LoekiiLoekii Member Posts: 430

    Originally posted by Ambros123

    I put stagnat as I skimmed through the opost looking for a number of subs.  I think SWTOR will remain at 1-2 mill subs... I mean come on it's Star Wars for some folks...

    But I see a decline in subs though if looking strictly as growth and not numbers because as later MMOs release they will take away subs.  Sure some will return but there will be a significant amount not returning so I se no way for it to grow.  People are playing SWTOR simpely as a time killer like me.

    But it really falls upon how end-game is handled, if it's really good then sure there will be growth.  But I'll beleive that when I see it as many companies are out there with far more MMO experiance which I think the lack of MMO design experiance is already showing in SWTOR.

    The 'Its star wars' did not help SWG hit a fraction of those numbers, nor did it help Lotro nor STO.

     

    Imo, the IP Fan might buy the box, but they wont stick around if they do not enjoy the game, regardless of the IP affiliation.

     

    Also, imo, TOR is a pretty slective slice of Star Wars, rather than actually being a whole lot of Star Wars.

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  • VerterdegeteVerterdegete Member UncommonPosts: 247

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  • PelaajaPelaaja Member Posts: 697

    Large decline,

    they're a success if they manage to keep half of their initial buyers.

    This is based on my personal experience of the game before launch and forums (also other than MMORPG.com).

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  • PelaajaPelaaja Member Posts: 697

    Originally posted by Lidane

     






    Originally posted by Savageone

    Why  do people do this? Just about every game is analyzed to death. And it is always "doomed" for failure in less 6 months.

    Can't people just enjoy a game.



     

    On these boards? Please. Didn't you know? Around here, everyone's an expert.

    Aren't these boards meant to discuss about games beyond official forums?

    You can find love to each game on their official forums and this is the place to analyze the games the way that isn't possible on the official boards.

    Analyze, speculate and compare to your hearts content. And also in some cases, warn those not educated enough about sure failures.

    BTW, you can simultaneously enjoy a game and discuss about it constructively.

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  • LafinatuLafinatu Member Posts: 48

    Originally posted by Cthulhu23

    Originally posted by Ethian

    Unfortionately many will stay subbed because of the name (Star Wars). Yes gamers these days are that flaky. They will play a bland game bringing nothing new to the table simply because of the IP lol

    I find it amazing that people actually believe that the only reason people will continually play this game is because of the IP, and not because it is...gasp...enjoyable to play.  The arrogance of some people to think that they know better what is "fun" than the person actually paying the sub fee to enjoy the game is baffling to me.  

    Why can't people, particularly the critics, just man up and admit that there is a large segment of people that enjoy a game for what it is, instead of coming up with some lame bullshit about those people being blinded by an IP or fancy marketing, or whatever? 

     

     I really have nothing to add to the topic except you have a join date of less then a month ago and over 400 posts. You've been a very busy boy lol.

    High Five FTW!

  • YoungLife89YoungLife89 Member Posts: 14

    I think the only way that SWTOR will grow in the future is if they are consistent in their updates. As it stands now, the game it good, runs smoothly, and has a few different things to do. But in playing it, I find myself thinking at different points, "it would be really nice if they had this or that in here." If BW listens to the players and all of the suggestions they get, I think they can do it. Rift seems to have done a good job with rolling out consistent, good updates and I think if BW follows that same type of idea, they should see growth. There are a number of people that did not buy the game just to wait and see the initial reactions from it. So if BW gives people a reason to be excited after every update, I see the game going nowhere but up.

    Playing:
    Watching: ArcheAge, Everquest Next, Wildstar
    Played: Everquest, Star Wars Galaxies, World of Warcraft, Tabula Rasa, Everquest 2, Planetside, Age of Conan, EVE, Vanguard, Dungeons and Dragons Online, Lord of the Rings Online, The Matrix Online, Aion, Dark Age of Camelot, Runescape, Lineage 2, City of Heroes/Villains, Rift, Star Wars: The Old Republic, Guild Wars 2, Planetside 2

  • MattNeMattNe Member Posts: 90

    no vote.

     

    I cant without a date on GW2, that is the lynchpin to ToR's future.

     

    Wildstar is going to be too 'sandboxy' to really crush ToR's sub numbers.

     

    ToR will also have that ability to be sold to a parent by a younger, lets say 10ish, child. I believe this has helped WoW in the past and will help ToR aswell.

     

    But again, without a date on GW2, I dont think you can make this call.

  • TJixleeTJixlee Member Posts: 159

    this site is too negative to get a REAL response to this poll

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  • alexminoalexmino Member Posts: 132

    Originally posted by MattNe

    no vote.

     

    I cant without a date on GW2, that is the lynchpin to ToR's future.

     

    Wildstar is going to be too 'sandboxy' to really crush ToR's sub numbers.

     

    ToR will also have that ability to be sold to a parent by a younger, lets say 10ish, child. I believe this has helped WoW in the past and will help ToR aswell.

     

    But again, without a date on GW2, I dont think you can make this call.

    GW2 is a free to play game, it isn't going to have any impact at all on Tors subs.

  • TJixleeTJixlee Member Posts: 159

    Originally posted by alexmino

    Originally posted by MattNe

    no vote.

     

    I cant without a date on GW2, that is the lynchpin to ToR's future.

     

    Wildstar is going to be too 'sandboxy' to really crush ToR's sub numbers.

     

    ToR will also have that ability to be sold to a parent by a younger, lets say 10ish, child. I believe this has helped WoW in the past and will help ToR aswell.

     

    But again, without a date on GW2, I dont think you can make this call.

    GW2 is a free to play game, it isn't going to have any impact at all on Tors subs.

    good point but it will

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  • SlyLoKSlyLoK Member RarePosts: 2,698

    Large Decline because I dont think the game will be able to hold the PvE players.

  • JinaarJinaar Member UncommonPosts: 46

    I'll go with 70% decline.  I constantly hear people say that story and voiceovers are the main strength of the game, and that's also its greatest enemy. 

    If majority of the players play it for those two reasons, they will also expect more of it down the line to keep the game fresh.  Creating new storylines for all classes would be very time consuming,  and all the VO work very expensive, if the game starts bleeding subs after a few months, the suits might not be too keen on the idea of spending tons of cash on voiceovers and instead try to resort to improving the mmo part of the game, which is already generic and lackluster. 

    Once they lose the story/VO fans, all the new mmos on the horizon will eat up the pvp/raid crowd and the game follows the same path as all the other generic themeparks in the past 4 years.

  • toddzetoddze Member UncommonPosts: 2,150

    I voted large decline. If it wasnt for the Staw Wars setting, I would have voted massive decline. Die hard SW fans will want to hold onto the game longer than the average mmo'er.

    Waiting for:EQ-Next, ArcheAge (not so much anymore)
    Now Playing: N/A
    Worst MMO: FFXIV
    Favorite MMO: FFXI

  • CastillleCastillle Member UncommonPosts: 2,679

    I chose large decline even if I like the game.  Why?  Because there are a LOT of people who got SWTOR for the wrong reasons. 

     

    Even today I see people whining about how SWTOR is nothing like SWG before the death patches.  I mean srsly.  o.o

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  • SavageoneSavageone Member UncommonPosts: 80

    Originally posted by Lidane

     






    Originally posted by Savageone

    Why  do people do this? Just about every game is analyzed to death. And it is always "doomed" for failure in less 6 months.

    Can't people just enjoy a game.



     

    On these boards? Please. Didn't you know? Around here, everyone's an expert.

    Sorry, I forgot.

    Lost my head there for a moment.

  • PuremallacePuremallace Member Posts: 1,856

    Originally posted by Castillle

    I chose large decline even if I like the game.  Why?  Because there are a LOT of people who got SWTOR for the wrong reasons. 

     Even today I see people whining about how SWTOR is nothing like SWG before the death patches.  I mean srsly.  o.o

    Telling you I have called it...WoW bandwagon fans who jumped on board the hype train are the first to turn and the forums have proved me right. The "Why can't this be like WoW" threads have started.

     

    I refuse to touch this game until they leave.

  • TheCrow2kTheCrow2k Member Posts: 953

    I think 50-60% of the people playing now will be gone within 3 months and likely 20-30% of people playing now will not sub after their box time is up.

    - The game is not "Star War'sy" enough to retain the folks playing ti primarily because they are starwars fans.

    - There is not actually enough to the game to retain the folks who rush to endgame.

    - The "next big thing" crowd never stay with one game much longer than 2-3 months.

     

    So who is left playing ? The truly hardcore who are happy to play through each of the class storylines and maybe the people who made this their first MMO home.

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