70% seems like the safest bet, but I wont be surpised if the game is down by closer to 90% in six months. Stabilizing at about 150k subs seems very plausible. If it retains more than 50% I'll be shocked, and if it actually grows, I'm going to start wondering about my sanity.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
I chose large decline even if I like the game. Why? Because there are a LOT of people who got SWTOR for the wrong reasons. Even today I see people whining about how SWTOR is nothing like SWG before the death patches. I mean srsly. o.o
Telling you I have called it...WoW bandwagon fans who jumped on board the hype train are the first to turn and the forums have proved me right. The "Why can't this be like WoW" threads have started.
Hardly surprising, given that its most common criticism is that its a WoW clone. To some, that sounds like it might even be a good thing - until they realize its not necessarily a good WoW clone, so much as a cheap WoW knockoff, with lots of VOs in place of quality content.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
EA have a huge vested interest in making this puppy fly, and they're not exactly virgins in the gaming market.
So far, they've run a world-class marketing effort all the way to launch day. There's no reason to believe that they'll stop that cold now that the game has launched.
I fully expect them to come up with some "shock and awe" moves in the next month or two, juuuust before the masses start murmuring too loudly. Perhaps the surprise announcement of a whole new planet to explore, at no additional charge ? There could be tons of content they have ready to roll, but simply held back at launch as "reserve ammo"...
IMO, a giant planet to explore would be a good idea, as would ship customization options, character appearance alteration, and more endgame group content. Not sure how they could work it in, but crafting to support the ship customization would also be interesting.
Keeping in mind, I only played the beta weekend, but I've read quite a bit about the game as well.
I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy, accompanied by an educational system which would be oriented toward social goals.
Unfortionately many will stay subbed because of the name (Star Wars). Yes gamers these days are that flaky. They will play a bland game bringing nothing new to the table simply because of the IP lol
I find it amazing that people actually believe that the only reason people will continually play this game is because of the IP, and not because it is...gasp...enjoyable to play. The arrogance of some people to think that they know better what is "fun" than the person actually paying the sub fee to enjoy the game is baffling to me.
Why can't people, particularly the critics, just man up and admit that there is a large segment of people that enjoy a game for what it is, instead of coming up with some lame bullshit about those people being blinded by an IP or fancy marketing, or whatever?
I never got why people say that either gamers will ALWAYS put there gameplay first ip or no ip.I loved Asherons Call back in the day was no ip attached to it.And I am a HUGE tolkein middle earth fan but I wouldnt make lotro my main game just because of that.
Large Decline amongst the more hardcore mmoers unless the first big expansion is fantastic. Also this game is going to lose a ot of subs to GW2 (being b2p and the fantasy motif) and TSW (the hardcore old school pc games nerds). I think this game is going to hold alot of casuals pretty well, those burnt out by wow or burnt out by the whole fantasy motif. The game is going to do ok, but this really hinges on the asthetics tha Bioware adds to the game as well as non repetative storylines- that is really sad for a Bioware game (ahem, running into the same "please tell him/her/them I am dead/gone/missing, how very sloppy Bioware, I expected much better from you (and yes i AM a BW fanboy so I already know that they are capable of much much better than this).
They have alot from the beginning, its very polished and I think that for what it is, and for the less mmo elite its a great game, but for the hardcore vets like myself this is a good diversion until April. At that point its going to be TSW for me with this and GW2 (not super into euro fantasy but it is B2P) and TOR as my secondary games.
I am also keeping my eye on Copernicus because I think its going to be a wildcard, same goes for Wildstar (which right now is one of my most anticipated with its sandpark features)
Hate to be the one to say this and I am sure you already know but gaming companies specially mmog ones don't plan on keeping you hardcore guys they know from history add "hardcore" games stick with no game for long you nose dive through content skipping 90% of it and then cry noting to do and wanting more catering to you.Mmog makers depend on what will always make them money casual gamers the people wo work 9-5,have familes,don't ever spend 8-12 hours a day in the game nor would they want to even if they could.Those are the players you want to keep not the hardcores.
I cant without a date on GW2, that is the lynchpin to ToR's future.
Wildstar is going to be too 'sandboxy' to really crush ToR's sub numbers.
ToR will also have that ability to be sold to a parent by a younger, lets say 10ish, child. I believe this has helped WoW in the past and will help ToR aswell.
But again, without a date on GW2, I dont think you can make this call.
GW2 is a free to play game, it isn't going to have any impact at all on Tors subs.
*rolls eyes*
Not this arguement again...
It will be a matter of fact that if GW2 can fully capture ones attention then no one will be throwing away money to a P2P game. If GW2 fulfills their promises then I can guarantee that they WILL take subs away.
I voted moderate decline. I think that there will be enough happy players and all out starwars fanboi's to keep the game thriving, but many of the "hardcore" mmorpg'ers will move on.
All of my posts are either intelligent, thought provoking, funny, satirical, sarcastic or intentionally disrespectful. Take your pick.
I get banned in the forums for games I love, so lets see if I do better in the forums for games I hate.
I enjoy the serenity of not caring what your opinion is.
After having time to experience the game ill guess good retention with a slight pickup of more people. The game is in a good polished state for the most part(need to fix the shadow issue that makes some peoples fps drop) and there is already talk of more stuff coming out soon. If its on par with the great content I've already experienced,then this game shoulld be fine.
I think WoW's growth was an anamoly; sort of a "perfect storm" in the MMO market. Sure, the timing is once again right for another "perfect storm," but the gameplay in SWTOR is too familiar to capture MMO vets for the long term, in my opinion. So I predicted a Huge Decline, probably around 50%, which is still a very profitable game.
At any rate, I hope I'm wrong and that SWTOR will keep growing, because there isn't any other MMORPG I'd rather play.
i think it will grow, with christmas coming ect. im really enyjoying it and all i see in gen chat is " OMG i love this game!!" so we will see . i think most of the negative votes come from people who arent playing
I think at first people will enjoy TOR for what it is but after your first 50 theres not much else to stick around for.
But i also feel it's Star Wars and easy to play so there will be a decent population for about a year if BW can manage to add a few tid bits of content.
After a year HUGE decline.
"It would be awesome if you could duel your companion. Then you could solo pvp".--Thanes
My vote is for a large decline. I see SWTOR doing similarly (but a bit better than) Rift.
It's main staying power is that it's Star Wars, and Star Wars fans are drawn to anything with a light saber. Most everyone else will get tired quickly and either return to their previous "go to" MMO or jump ship for any number of 2012 releases. They'll say they won't leave and that they love it, but after seeing the same hype/decline cycle occur for the last 5 years, I'll believe it when I see it.
there are 2 billion star wars fans on the planet. some of them need to get pcs but thats plenty to sustain swtor.
I think 50-60% of the people playing now will be gone within 3 months and likely 20-30% of people playing now will not sub after their box time is up.
- The game is not "Star War'sy" enough to retain the folks playing ti primarily because they are starwars fans.
- There is not actually enough to the game to retain the folks who rush to endgame.
- The "next big thing" crowd never stay with one game much longer than 2-3 months.
So who is left playing ? The truly hardcore who are happy to play through each of the class storylines and maybe the people who made this their first MMO home.
Not Star War'sy enough are you kidding me the incredible amount of Star Wars lore the history of Jedi and Sith, you are out of your mind this game is plenty star war'sy for anyone that is a fan of Bioware games and KOTOR which is one of the best selling SRPG's of all time and if those people get hooked on this game because of KOTOR and keep playing for a year well you have your one million right there.
TOR is the game I have been waiting for, fun a game I can put down if I want an amazing story, multiplayer, raids etc. Guess what TOR is a casual players dream which 90% of the players of WOW and every other game out there are and you can bet that probably 50% of TOR's players aren't regular MMORPG players. This site is way to negative because everyone is an expert out of all the review I have seen her I haven't seen one person explain critically without a heavy amount of Bias why everyone wil leave it's all abotu what you wanted.
Well guess what this game is what the people that quit SWG because it was a second job have wanted for 10 years. KOTOR made me quit SWG now I have TOR and I am loving it. Your gonna see a lot more solid numbers for this game then all of the naysayers here realize because most of the people that will play are playing because it's Bioware, and it's Star Wars the old republic not because i's an MMORPG, I bet most of those players don't even know what Guild Wars 2 is.....
I voted moderate decline. I think that there will be enough happy players and all out starwars fanboi's to keep the game thriving, but many of the "hardcore" mmorpg'ers will move on.
That is the most intelligent reply I have seen yet, I think the harcore MMORPG crowd will move on but thos that have wanted this kind of game will stay on a lot longer and the Bioware and Star Wars crowd will keep a lot of people. Thanks for posting a point of view that differientes the mmorpg crowd from the rest of the world.
The game has polish, a buzz and a blockbuster vibe about it, as well as being a lot of fun, that I haven't felt since the original WOW release.
I will play every character of every faction for the story.
I will fully explore all the crafting.
I can pvp casually with my mates while drinking beer, chatting and enjoying being in "Star Wars".
Want to echo what one chap said about hardcore mmorpgers. I am not entirely sure what a "hardcore" mmorpger is but the people who call themselves so or the people that are ascribed such a title seem on impression to be a minority of the most dedicated, demanding and unforgiving of gamers: I really hope they get their game but the money really is with the casual family/working types who are more easy to please and make up the majority of the wallets.
All I demand is some polish, a good story and genre, a bit of humour, a bit of trust in the publishers and developers, enough content for a casual gamer (game has enough to satisfy me for 12 months easy) and some casual pvp, pve and crafting to muck about with while I hang out with my mates and guildies. This game far exceeds these basic expectations for me and is the best game I have played in years.
I was burned by so many games sandbox and themepark over the last 7 years and I almost gave up on mmorpgs and refused to ever buy a Collector's Edition again. Well I just ordered the CE to upgrade my standard edition and that is how much confidence I have in the game.
This will be my themepark game. I only have time for one so the other candidates are now history and I cancelled my dormant sub to the "other" famous themepark game. Also I don't see any other casual friendly mmorpgs with this level of blockbuster edge on the horizon so I predict this will soak up more and more themepark players from other games as word-of-mouth spreads.
Will it lose hardcore mmorpgers? I guess if what I understand about hardcore players I daresay it will, but are they: (a) big enough in numbers to even dent the subs; or (b) playing the game in the first place.
Good fun these prediction threads though, thanks OP.
Let's see what really happens in the coming 6-9 months.
Whatever the subscribers are after the 1st month - I think there will certainly be 50% less after 6 months.... even if things in the game are going swimmingly.
Bigger question will be what do things look like after 1 year... 18 months... there are a lot of variables.
Whatever the subscribers are after the 1st month - I think there will certainly be 50% less after 6 months.... even if things in the game are going swimmingly.
Bigger question will be what do things look like after 1 year... 18 months... there are a lot of variables.
part of me thinks this, the issue is that wow seems to have a fanatical fanbase that wants nothing but wow.
The other thing is bioware mentioned new content every 2-3 months and major content every year. I figure its going to take me 6 months alone to due 4 classes to end of there story as I dont play all that often. I logged 200hrs on dragon age allone
IMO, a giant planet to explore would be a good idea, as would ship customization options, character appearance alteration, and more endgame group content. Not sure how they could work it in, but crafting to support the ship customization would also be interesting.
Keeping in mind, I only played the beta weekend, but I've read quite a bit about the game as well.
Wll you can craft stuff for your ship - using cybertech. The schemtics drop from slicing missions afaik.
It's armour and shiellds and things, nothing that changes the appearance of the ship - I don't think the exterior will ever change tbh, they're more likely to introduce placeables for the interior. And I don't see that coming for a good long while either.
I think 50-60% of the people playing now will be gone within 3 months and likely 20-30% of people playing now will not sub after their box time is up.
- The game is not "Star War'sy" enough to retain the folks playing ti primarily because they are starwars fans.
- There is not actually enough to the game to retain the folks who rush to endgame.
- The "next big thing" crowd never stay with one game much longer than 2-3 months.
So who is left playing ? The truly hardcore who are happy to play through each of the class storylines and maybe the people who made this their first MMO home.
Not Star War'sy enough are you kidding me the incredible amount of Star Wars lore the history of Jedi and Sith, you are out of your mind this game is plenty star war'sy for anyone that is a fan of Bioware games and KOTOR which is one of the best selling SRPG's of all time and if those people get hooked on this game because of KOTOR and keep playing for a year well you have your one million right there.
TOR is the game I have been waiting for, fun a game I can put down if I want an amazing story, multiplayer, raids etc. Guess what TOR is a casual players dream which 90% of the players of WOW and every other game out there are and you can bet that probably 50% of TOR's players aren't regular MMORPG players. This site is way to negative because everyone is an expert out of all the review I have seen her I haven't seen one person explain critically without a heavy amount of Bias why everyone wil leave it's all abotu what you wanted.
Well guess what this game is what the people that quit SWG because it was a second job have wanted for 10 years. KOTOR made me quit SWG now I have TOR and I am loving it. Your gonna see a lot more solid numbers for this game then all of the naysayers here realize because most of the people that will play are playing because it's Bioware, and it's Star Wars the old republic not because i's an MMORPG, I bet most of those players don't even know what Guild Wars 2 is.....
You are speaking from your own opinion just as I was speaking from mine, doesnt make either of us wrong. You did misinterpret what I posted though clearly.
Comments I am reading on various Star Wars forums I am a member of seem to echo the fact that the game doesnt feel enough like Star Wars and the "lore" you are talking about is not recognised cannon which some real hardcore SW fans dont really like. So as I said the game will not retain those players who I imagine make up quite a few pre-orders. To me the part that is most missing is that the worlds feel dead, civilian NPC's are not going about their day to day lives and it makes the game world feel sterile when surrounded entirely by other "heroes" imho.
As for Kotor, I love both games, the first one so much so I had it on xbox and then bought it on PC as well. So I dont see your point TBH the story in Kotor & kotor 2 was far more interesting and compelling that any of the 3 class stories I have tried thus far and the worlds felt more alive too.
My opinion is not really about what I wanted (Since I prefer hybrid sandbox with questing and I knew in advance SWTOR would not be that) but more that I expected more from Bioware based on their glorious track record.
I never mentioned Guild Wars 2 nor will I be playing that so not sure why you brough it up. But since you did brought it up SWTOR would seem more suited to a buy to play model that GW2 uses which includes regular content updates as small buy to play expansions...... because I just dont think SWTOR is worth a monthly subscription.
A decline. TOR is running off of hyped up MMO fuel and Star Wars fuel so it may take a bit longer than normal, but once people get to the end and realize all they have to look forward to are Quake inspired world design they are going to start shedding away. As I'm playing I can only think, "if I do this I can get to the next planet faster". I should be playing the game to have fun, not hope the next thing I do will be fun.
If you replaced everything with a brand new IP, different graphics, different story, but left everything else the same this game would be panned.
A decline. TOR is running off of hyped up MMO fuel and Star Wars fuel so it may take a bit longer than normal, but once people get to the end and realize all they have to look forward to are Quake inspired world design they are going to start shedding away.
If you replaced everything with a brand new IP, different graphics, different story, but left everything else the same this game would be panned.
Well you say that and it is possible, but and a big but here, if the Dev team conentrates on creating inner city content, things like creating actual under cities and massive explorable areas in locations like that they could have positive retention. The under development of Narr Shaddaa is a tragedy that shouldn't have happend. That has to be the first thing they revise. Also more races there has to be more races. I'm not talking about themepark vs Sandbox here just basic things Star Wars should have had. How can you just put human clones in a Star Wars game come one people this is Sci Fi.
I don't know what they were thinking. WAR made the same mistake, all that time just add Lizardmen and Skaven thats all you fools and people will play but no they go and build an area no one cares about. You have to build for your fan base, Chances are the Star Wars fans and players want, Space content, Races, More areas to explore and less linear gameplay. Their next expansion should be nothing but that an expansion, look if they had added Menaan I would be playing right now and I dont really like themeparks ( my favorite KOTOR zone). But no Bith, Gith, Mon Calimari, Bothan or WOOKIES none of the classic Star Wars races, its horrible. Then all the companions are named prefabs, a prefab is one thing like Wookie or Lizard person, but no your guy is just like the other guys companion, they really dropped the ball on that one because it is like a single player game, because they didnt account for the other hundreds of thousands of players using the same companion.
After following this game through EGA and release, and it's been only two days...based on feedback from players comments on the main board, like,
"game just feels dead."
"This game is dead already?"
"Where are all the people?"
"Anyone else feel like they've played this game before?"
"Where are the high res graphics?"
"Please Bioware fix the UI..."
"Is anyone else all ready bored?"
"Is this really all there is?"
"Does anyone else feel like they are playing a single-player RPG?"
"Why is the game missing basic features we see in most MMO's?"
and on, and on, and on...mods over there are working hard for their money that's for sure.
I'm going with huge decline somewhere near 70%. Unless Bioware starts addressing these players concerns and quickly, this games honeymoon may be the fastest we've ever seen in an MMO and the migration of players from the game might be just as fast. It is sad that this IP being what it is(it is Star Wars!), I do not think will even be enough to save this game if Bioware isn't on their game with fixes, updates and content.
Comments
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
Telling you I have called it...WoW bandwagon fans who jumped on board the hype train are the first to turn and the forums have proved me right. The "Why can't this be like WoW" threads have started.
Hardly surprising, given that its most common criticism is that its a WoW clone. To some, that sounds like it might even be a good thing - until they realize its not necessarily a good WoW clone, so much as a cheap WoW knockoff, with lots of VOs in place of quality content.When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
IMO, a giant planet to explore would be a good idea, as would ship customization options, character appearance alteration, and more endgame group content. Not sure how they could work it in, but crafting to support the ship customization would also be interesting.
Keeping in mind, I only played the beta weekend, but I've read quite a bit about the game as well.
I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy, accompanied by an educational system which would be oriented toward social goals.
~Albert Einstein
I never got why people say that either gamers will ALWAYS put there gameplay first ip or no ip.I loved Asherons Call back in the day was no ip attached to it.And I am a HUGE tolkein middle earth fan but I wouldnt make lotro my main game just because of that.
Hate to be the one to say this and I am sure you already know but gaming companies specially mmog ones don't plan on keeping you hardcore guys they know from history add "hardcore" games stick with no game for long you nose dive through content skipping 90% of it and then cry noting to do and wanting more catering to you.Mmog makers depend on what will always make them money casual gamers the people wo work 9-5,have familes,don't ever spend 8-12 hours a day in the game nor would they want to even if they could.Those are the players you want to keep not the hardcores.
*rolls eyes*
Not this arguement again...
It will be a matter of fact that if GW2 can fully capture ones attention then no one will be throwing away money to a P2P game. If GW2 fulfills their promises then I can guarantee that they WILL take subs away.
I voted moderate decline. I think that there will be enough happy players and all out starwars fanboi's to keep the game thriving, but many of the "hardcore" mmorpg'ers will move on.
All of my posts are either intelligent, thought provoking, funny, satirical, sarcastic or intentionally disrespectful. Take your pick.
I get banned in the forums for games I love, so lets see if I do better in the forums for games I hate.
I enjoy the serenity of not caring what your opinion is.
I don't hate much, but I hate Apple© with a passion. If Steve Jobs was alive, I would punch him in the face.
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
They are off to a pretty good start compared to all other MMO's out there actually.
I think it's going to do quiet well. They will do balance tweaks/add space combat and I see this game having a stable population of 4-5 million subs.
I think WoW's growth was an anamoly; sort of a "perfect storm" in the MMO market. Sure, the timing is once again right for another "perfect storm," but the gameplay in SWTOR is too familiar to capture MMO vets for the long term, in my opinion. So I predicted a Huge Decline, probably around 50%, which is still a very profitable game.
At any rate, I hope I'm wrong and that SWTOR will keep growing, because there isn't any other MMORPG I'd rather play.
i think it will grow, with christmas coming ect. im really enyjoying it and all i see in gen chat is " OMG i love this game!!" so we will see . i think most of the negative votes come from people who arent playing
Large Decline.
I think at first people will enjoy TOR for what it is but after your first 50 theres not much else to stick around for.
But i also feel it's Star Wars and easy to play so there will be a decent population for about a year if BW can manage to add a few tid bits of content.
After a year HUGE decline.
"It would be awesome if you could duel your companion. Then you could solo pvp".--Thanes
there are 2 billion star wars fans on the planet. some of them need to get pcs but thats plenty to sustain swtor.
Not Star War'sy enough are you kidding me the incredible amount of Star Wars lore the history of Jedi and Sith, you are out of your mind this game is plenty star war'sy for anyone that is a fan of Bioware games and KOTOR which is one of the best selling SRPG's of all time and if those people get hooked on this game because of KOTOR and keep playing for a year well you have your one million right there.
TOR is the game I have been waiting for, fun a game I can put down if I want an amazing story, multiplayer, raids etc. Guess what TOR is a casual players dream which 90% of the players of WOW and every other game out there are and you can bet that probably 50% of TOR's players aren't regular MMORPG players. This site is way to negative because everyone is an expert out of all the review I have seen her I haven't seen one person explain critically without a heavy amount of Bias why everyone wil leave it's all abotu what you wanted.
Well guess what this game is what the people that quit SWG because it was a second job have wanted for 10 years. KOTOR made me quit SWG now I have TOR and I am loving it. Your gonna see a lot more solid numbers for this game then all of the naysayers here realize because most of the people that will play are playing because it's Bioware, and it's Star Wars the old republic not because i's an MMORPG, I bet most of those players don't even know what Guild Wars 2 is.....
That is the most intelligent reply I have seen yet, I think the harcore MMORPG crowd will move on but thos that have wanted this kind of game will stay on a lot longer and the Bioware and Star Wars crowd will keep a lot of people. Thanks for posting a point of view that differientes the mmorpg crowd from the rest of the world.
I predict moderate growth.
The game has polish, a buzz and a blockbuster vibe about it, as well as being a lot of fun, that I haven't felt since the original WOW release.
I will play every character of every faction for the story.
I will fully explore all the crafting.
I can pvp casually with my mates while drinking beer, chatting and enjoying being in "Star Wars".
Want to echo what one chap said about hardcore mmorpgers. I am not entirely sure what a "hardcore" mmorpger is but the people who call themselves so or the people that are ascribed such a title seem on impression to be a minority of the most dedicated, demanding and unforgiving of gamers: I really hope they get their game but the money really is with the casual family/working types who are more easy to please and make up the majority of the wallets.
All I demand is some polish, a good story and genre, a bit of humour, a bit of trust in the publishers and developers, enough content for a casual gamer (game has enough to satisfy me for 12 months easy) and some casual pvp, pve and crafting to muck about with while I hang out with my mates and guildies. This game far exceeds these basic expectations for me and is the best game I have played in years.
I was burned by so many games sandbox and themepark over the last 7 years and I almost gave up on mmorpgs and refused to ever buy a Collector's Edition again. Well I just ordered the CE to upgrade my standard edition and that is how much confidence I have in the game.
This will be my themepark game. I only have time for one so the other candidates are now history and I cancelled my dormant sub to the "other" famous themepark game. Also I don't see any other casual friendly mmorpgs with this level of blockbuster edge on the horizon so I predict this will soak up more and more themepark players from other games as word-of-mouth spreads.
Will it lose hardcore mmorpgers? I guess if what I understand about hardcore players I daresay it will, but are they: (a) big enough in numbers to even dent the subs; or (b) playing the game in the first place.
Good fun these prediction threads though, thanks OP.
Let's see what really happens in the coming 6-9 months.
Regards
Melmoth
Whatever the subscribers are after the 1st month - I think there will certainly be 50% less after 6 months.... even if things in the game are going swimmingly.
Bigger question will be what do things look like after 1 year... 18 months... there are a lot of variables.
part of me thinks this, the issue is that wow seems to have a fanatical fanbase that wants nothing but wow.
The other thing is bioware mentioned new content every 2-3 months and major content every year. I figure its going to take me 6 months alone to due 4 classes to end of there story as I dont play all that often. I logged 200hrs on dragon age allone
Wll you can craft stuff for your ship - using cybertech. The schemtics drop from slicing missions afaik.
It's armour and shiellds and things, nothing that changes the appearance of the ship - I don't think the exterior will ever change tbh, they're more likely to introduce placeables for the interior. And I don't see that coming for a good long while either.
You are speaking from your own opinion just as I was speaking from mine, doesnt make either of us wrong. You did misinterpret what I posted though clearly.
Comments I am reading on various Star Wars forums I am a member of seem to echo the fact that the game doesnt feel enough like Star Wars and the "lore" you are talking about is not recognised cannon which some real hardcore SW fans dont really like. So as I said the game will not retain those players who I imagine make up quite a few pre-orders. To me the part that is most missing is that the worlds feel dead, civilian NPC's are not going about their day to day lives and it makes the game world feel sterile when surrounded entirely by other "heroes" imho.
As for Kotor, I love both games, the first one so much so I had it on xbox and then bought it on PC as well. So I dont see your point TBH the story in Kotor & kotor 2 was far more interesting and compelling that any of the 3 class stories I have tried thus far and the worlds felt more alive too.
My opinion is not really about what I wanted (Since I prefer hybrid sandbox with questing and I knew in advance SWTOR would not be that) but more that I expected more from Bioware based on their glorious track record.
I never mentioned Guild Wars 2 nor will I be playing that so not sure why you brough it up. But since you did brought it up SWTOR would seem more suited to a buy to play model that GW2 uses which includes regular content updates as small buy to play expansions...... because I just dont think SWTOR is worth a monthly subscription.
Due to SWTOR's innovation:
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/336175/How-SWTOR-is-being-innovative-among-AAA-MMOs.html
it's likely to be very high!
A decline. TOR is running off of hyped up MMO fuel and Star Wars fuel so it may take a bit longer than normal, but once people get to the end and realize all they have to look forward to are Quake inspired world design they are going to start shedding away. As I'm playing I can only think, "if I do this I can get to the next planet faster". I should be playing the game to have fun, not hope the next thing I do will be fun.
If you replaced everything with a brand new IP, different graphics, different story, but left everything else the same this game would be panned.
400,000 in 6 months in the NA/EU region.
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Well you say that and it is possible, but and a big but here, if the Dev team conentrates on creating inner city content, things like creating actual under cities and massive explorable areas in locations like that they could have positive retention. The under development of Narr Shaddaa is a tragedy that shouldn't have happend. That has to be the first thing they revise. Also more races there has to be more races. I'm not talking about themepark vs Sandbox here just basic things Star Wars should have had. How can you just put human clones in a Star Wars game come one people this is Sci Fi.
I don't know what they were thinking. WAR made the same mistake, all that time just add Lizardmen and Skaven thats all you fools and people will play but no they go and build an area no one cares about. You have to build for your fan base, Chances are the Star Wars fans and players want, Space content, Races, More areas to explore and less linear gameplay. Their next expansion should be nothing but that an expansion, look if they had added Menaan I would be playing right now and I dont really like themeparks ( my favorite KOTOR zone). But no Bith, Gith, Mon Calimari, Bothan or WOOKIES none of the classic Star Wars races, its horrible. Then all the companions are named prefabs, a prefab is one thing like Wookie or Lizard person, but no your guy is just like the other guys companion, they really dropped the ball on that one because it is like a single player game, because they didnt account for the other hundreds of thousands of players using the same companion.
After following this game through EGA and release, and it's been only two days...based on feedback from players comments on the main board, like,
"game just feels dead."
"This game is dead already?"
"Where are all the people?"
"Anyone else feel like they've played this game before?"
"Where are the high res graphics?"
"Please Bioware fix the UI..."
"Is anyone else all ready bored?"
"Is this really all there is?"
"Does anyone else feel like they are playing a single-player RPG?"
"Why is the game missing basic features we see in most MMO's?"
and on, and on, and on...mods over there are working hard for their money that's for sure.
I'm going with huge decline somewhere near 70%. Unless Bioware starts addressing these players concerns and quickly, this games honeymoon may be the fastest we've ever seen in an MMO and the migration of players from the game might be just as fast. It is sad that this IP being what it is(it is Star Wars!), I do not think will even be enough to save this game if Bioware isn't on their game with fixes, updates and content.