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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire
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WARNING!
Logic failure detected.
"Not chosen" =! "random".
All I can say is that it was accurate at showing population trends with AoC, WAR, AION, and RIFT. Each time someone would say "but it's not accurate", but time and time again it was. I'm not saying that it is infallible, but it does show a trend and those trends have been accurate in the past.
Actually it wasn't accurate. Population was rising when Xfire showed it trending down and did the opposite when it population was declining.
It's only accurate in showing trends from Xfire players. If you're concerned with what people on Xfire play it's an excellent tool. However thats all it shows and it's rarely been even remotely accurate outside of Xfire users. And yes that includes its accuracey showing trends.
Now I'm not saying Xfire has been wrong all the time, even a broken watch is right twice a day.
according to your "logic" it is quite possible SWTOR is not a top 5 xfire game, but could be the #1 MMO in the world then ? strange how wow was perched at #1 on xfire for a very long time and strangely enough was the #1 MMO in the world. I hope you are able to understand if swtor proves itself to be the top MMO in the world 1 year from now, it will be reflected accordingly by xfire #s. wow proved these will not be mutually exclusive, proving the xfire sampling is, to a degree....accurate enough.
lol......... yes when you hit the 5-10 mil plus it is more than likely that Xfire will be able to accurately show the game has a lot of players.
Like I said even a broken watch is right twice a day. Congratz on pointing out that even Xfire can see the moon without a telescope!
Though I don't see SWTOR as #1 one year from now.
THANK YOU !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Like I and many others have been trying to get some of you people to understand... Xfire can and does reflect gaming trends. THANKS !! Now we just need to get the rest of them to come to terms with this. thanks yet again for proving my point.
I'm actually not defending the methodology because it's not a poll at all, as far as I know. I don't understand how the data is being gathered and I don't know how it's being processed. My question was related to the Xfire users and why they wouldn't make a suitable polling group for this game, were they to actually be polled.
I'm not drawing any conclusions about the results that this thread is discussing. In fact, I think I've already stated that I wouldn't trust them. I believe "nebulous" was the word I used.
Hmm,
when they make those RDCs and other gallups they don't choose people randomly. For example, in nordic countries everyone over 18 is eligible to vote. When they start gathering gallups, they start calling these non-random people eligible to vite) whom so forth consist of those who don't vote (FPS-gamers in this context), those who vote for Donald Duck and so on. In USA it's even more XFire type thing, because people have to register to vote (self-selected process).
XFire can be used as a trend meter. It is accurate enough, when combined with other data people on these forums can mine from the net (financial reports, official announcements, polls of all sorts, personal experience).
You should never underestimate the power of MMORPG.com (or it's users).
Can we get a forum filter for any links or references to Xfire?
ok deep breath now.
'yes" it's a statistical sample Which means that X-Fire takes a sample of a certain demographic. I and others are not part of that demographic therefore we aren't being counted as we are not part of the demographic that partakes in X-Fire. whcih means that using X-Fire to predict trends becomes a bit more dicey. What it can do is predict the trends of the types of players who use X-Fire.
Did you not see the part that I highlighted or were you too busy being incredulous?
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
yeah, that self-selected sample being a bunch of gamers, with interests ranging the entire spectrum of games -- MMOs, RTS, RPGs, FPS, etc. you act like xfire is used by soccer moms --- its a sample of GAMERS who play all kinds of GAMES. seems like a darn good bunch of people to determine trends in GAMING to me.
Pure conjecture on your part. I installed XFire when I installed AoC a couple of years ago and it has since then been bundled with alot of non FPS games. And I dont use XFire for communicating, I use it to track my gaming time which I think is the most common use.
So I see no hard evidence showing that XFire gamers would be "atypical" gamers. Specially since it is accurately showing both WoW and LoL as being among the most popular games currently being played, which they are.
My gaming blog
This.
Add to this the fact that it is accurately showing the most popular (western) games as being very popular. It even showed the decline in WoW numbers not long ago, one that was confirmed by Blizzard.
My gaming blog
Another early thing really you must learn just to pass that 110 level stats class: Anecdote != Data.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
But what about non "self proclaimed" gamers?
With games becoming more open to the masses there are a lot of people who are signing into these things who are not gamers. They don't follow forums, they don't follow the latest news they just have an inkling to play a game. There are a lot of these types of players who play WoW and I suspect they might be interested in trying other games.
So sure, x-fire is a great way to track die-hard gamers who can't get enough fo games and want to use the service. But it's not going to show the other side of the coin.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Does not matter if they're "atypical" gamers or not.
Are they represented in the exact same proportions and the same deviation as the parent population? If not, they're going to produce biased results, a result that is different from what the full population would produce. How different? We'd need to figure the Sample Bias.
I would assume none of you, or me, or particularly Xfire, would be willing to analyze their own sample in enough detail to calculate the total Sample Bias.
All right, I can continue to try to educate here, but it appears people want XFire predictions to be "right" more than they want to learn why it's just never going to be good polling. You can't overcome faith with mere mathspeak, so I'll bow out now.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
What if the xfire sample is biased towards those games for some other reason you dot know of? If there is some reason that LoL users are more likely to sign up for xfire than other gamers, then that is a bias.
This is the probl with a self selected sample. You have no idea what these peoples motivation for joining and using xfire is. If wow players are more likely than Eve players to use xfire, then eve players are underrepresented when comparing the two, even though xfire correctly reports wow as #1.
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Open recruitment for
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Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
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People still use Xfire?
It does nothing but lag my games and it's pointless, let's keep track of how little life i have.
Haven't used it for years lol.
Like I said before, there is no way of knowing how representetive, or not, the XFire gamers are of the total population so saying it is representative would be as valid as saying it is not.
I dont think anyone is going to claim that is will show completely unbiased results but with such a huge sample size and lack of any study showing the sample bias, as you put it, I choose to belive that it is largely accurate.
It accurately showed WoWs dominance on the MMORPG market.
It accurately showed Aion as being the second most popular MMORPG, in the west (prior to SW:TOR release)
It accurately showed the huge surge in people playing AoC and Dungeon Fighter Online after they went F2P.
It accurately showed the LoL rising star.
And it, most likely, showed that SW:TOR is the second most played MMORPG, in the west, right now.
The part of it being peaked might be premature to say and why I used the word: seemed.
But XFire has shown several times the trends in gaming and no-one is claiming it is the perfect polling tool, but it is the best we got.
My gaming blog
You know whats foolish? Trying to make more of what it is than it is
Take the above statement. If WOW and LOL ( have not checked so just for arguments sake if it is true) are showing as the most played on x-fire. Then trying to give reasons why it must be wrong or invallid, thats foolish.
They very well prove exactly what they are. The most popular and most played games on x-fire.
All you are proving here is your own bias against another way to see a sample of what games some gamers on x-fire are playing.
I have used xfire but its not as popular as mumble, ventrillo and teamspeak used by the majority of mmo players.
I would like to see statistics on these programs I mentioned
Would love to see someone try and organise an ingame raid on xfire or guild pvp hehehe
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
SWTOR never hit #3 on xfire, if it did, it would say it did, it has gotten to #4. With that being said, I have taken classes on statistics. Anyone here ever heard of William Deming? He is like the guy that showed that all you need to do to see how things are going, whether it was in manufacturing or people watching TV, was take a small sample of the thing you are studying to see a bigger picture.
For instance instead of checking 100 parts, you take 10 parts and check them. If 1 out of 10 are bad, then you can bet that you'll have 10 bad parts out of 100.
Same applies to things like the Nielson ratings. If you sample poll 1000 people and ask what show you watch on Monday night, and 600 out of the 1000 were watching show X, guess what, take that numberand apply to how many people have cable or TV's(a good guess since there is no actual number to show what households actually have a TV but we can assume X number do based on TV sells in the US) and with sample numbers you can predict how many people across the country watched show X.
Xfire is no different. It is a sample of gamers. It shows which games are popular with the gamers using the xfire system. Just as Nielson doesn't have a ratings box in everyones home to gather data, they can within an above average accuracy predict what shows are being watched and which ones are not. Simple statistics.
Actually I do know the subject. How many homes in the US have a Nielson box? By your standard they would have to have 300k boxes in homes. They don't. Yet they accurately predict what shows are being watched and which are not. Your argument is not holding up to the facts.
Nielsen ratings are horribly inaccurate and have been for years. They feature an error-margin so big that its not even funny.
This is not a reliable way to sample content, neither is Xfire.
At least Nielsen is using a specific way to select an "average" household and include different demographics. Which is still horrible.
You may see it as horrible, but the industry doesn't, because it works.
No it didn't. If it hit #3 it would say it did on xfire. The furthest it rated was #4. Go see for yourself. If it ever did hit #3 it would say it hit number 3.
A margin of error is always a possibility. But I have used xfire to see what MMO are healthy for a long time and it has always been accurate to show us the health of a game. Deny it all you want, spin it anyway you like, numbers do not lie.
Neilson strives very hard for a approximate disturbuted samplings / ratings similiar to the population (ie % high, medium, low income as well as set % of particular ethnic groups). None of that is present in Xfire anyway. So the point is kinda of mute.