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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire
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Well, for me, it's mainly a tool that allows me to talk to my friends playing while in game. If one of them is playing modern warfare and im playing swtor, we can still open a window in game and send each other messages. Wich is cool actually.
But apparently this tool also records how many hours you play of any given name and so, many people think they can use it to say if a game is doing well or not. The problem is tha xfire, doesnt even recognize all games, and the ones it does not always record correctly. Not to mention that it is easily fooled, for example, it's known that some games in the past used to tell people on it's main forums to install XFire so they could "help" the game boost its popularity.
So that makes it highly suspect and unreliable when it comes to numbers, then.
With that in mind, why is anyone supposed to accept it as gospel truth that TOR has peaked after 8 days on the market and will now decline because of the XFire numbers? I haven't seen a good explanation so far in this thread.
You are right, no one should accept it as truth. Yet, everyday theres stupid threads about it.
For example, I use it as signature simply so people can add me if they want and I can monitor wich games ive played the most, but I have no illusions as to think the whole software can be used as market example
You know, you people can rant all you want. The fact is that you CAN use x-fire as a tool to see trends within the x-fire players. All your ranting will not change that.
It can be used the same as any other sampling method. If it is used for what it is exactly, a sample of x-fire players thats it.
Trying to compare it to general or other types of trends or samples means nothing. As a matter of fact, it will be more relevant, as it is used for gaming, than most of the methods some of these supposedly "experts" are trying to refute it with.
As i said earlier, you can try to twist things around. But it is so much hot air.
Use it for what it is. A way to see the trends of x-fire users, thats it. Like it or not, it does that and no huffing or puffing will change that.
1. They have 20,000,000 registered accounts, that's nice, they still count mine in there altough I stopped using less than a month after getting it because it sucked next to Ventrilo for in game communication.
2. It is the worst way to track in game population cause on the crapfire site it shows only just under 10000 users per day for TOR. This is only, what maybe 2 servers worth? When there are at least 250,000 in game most likely at any given time. So yea, they are the worst way to track user popoulation.
3. Currently 130,000 players online at the time of your posting from the 8 games in the dropdown menu that I saw. Warcraft alone would have 10 times that many people in game at the time. As stated, not a good way to track population.
4. The only thing X-Fire is good for tracking is it's own users....Not total in game populations as was jmcdermottuk's point.
Not flaming, or trying to start anything. Just needed to correct a couple of things.
You are 100% correct there, X-Fire can be used as a tool to see trends within the X-Fire players....ONLY. I have been playing MMOs since Meridian59 days, and I have yet to use X-Fire, ever. I know at least 300+ from my guild in WoW that never used it too, and hundreds more from L2, LoTRO, EQ, UO, DAoC, CoX, AoC.....need I go on?? But yes, you are correct, those of you who wish to put tracking software on your PC so you can say you are a part of something, this tool can help track your opinions on games.
But, since this service has never tracked my opinions, its numbers are 100% irrelivant to anything I care about when it comes to MMORPGs. It is 100% useless to me, and many, many others out there. It has no relivance in any way like a politcal poll either. Everyone has a random chance to be involved in a political poll, there for, a sampling of the populace will have a reasonable semblance to the overall opinion. X-Fire, only counts people that sign up for thier service, ONLY they are included. Thier numbers only reflect a sampling of thier selective user base, nothing more.
So yeah, if you want to come out and say 'it appears that 28% of X-fire users like this game', well than you can say that, but you can't come out and say '28% of MMORPG gamers like this game' based off thier numbers.
(DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)
x-fire is not fair way to measure because only around 10k x-fire users playing the game, and that is out of the over 1 million current sub. That number represents around 1% of the current player base.
Currently Playing: SSFIV AE, SFxTekken, SWTOR, WoW. Waiting for: GW2, Resident Evil 6.
and if it succeeds... it will prove that all you need to do is make a good game.
weird how that works huh?
I don't use xfire, neither are we forced to use xfire, so basing a games success on a program which not everyone uses is quite pointless.
Heh no it is not.
It can be used as one part of a way to determine trends in gaming. I could care less if it is used for SWTOR or WOW or any other game. It is just another piece of data that CAN be used if you do it right.
That has been my point, and the whole point, the whole time:P Because this person uses it and those 2 do not, does not make it better or worse. It is just data, if this week 1k play a game, and 2 weeks later it is 2 k and 4 weeks later it is 5 k, then that is a trend and a piece of data.
It does not represent any thing else, but it does produce some info, like it or not:) Saying YOU do not use it, or know anyone else that does will not change it either:)
A lot of analytical data only uses a smaller number of people cause either getting the actual info is not possible or cannot be revealed for other purposes. A huge example of this is how we rate and value TV shows. Not everyone who watches the show is actually calculated. It is based on a smaller number of people and multiplied to fit a higher estimated value.
The Nielsen system is also far from perfect. In the end, it is still not 100%. XFire can still be used to get a decent estimation of actvity but it doesn't matter cause no fan would believe it unless it came straight from EA anyway.
Just so you all know
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_standard
A double standard is the unjust application of different sets of principles for similar situations. The concept implies that a single set of principles encompassing all situations (a "single standard") is the desirable ideal.[1] The term has been used in print since at least 1895.[2] A double standard may take the form of an instance in which certain concepts (often, for example, a word, phrase, social norm, or rule) are perceived as acceptable to be applied by one group of people, but are considered unacceptable—taboo—when applied by another group
So we use x-fire for how many months to proclaim other games are dying or have peaked, but not TOR?
Sure it is.
At least a professional statistical company like NPD uses real numbers from the developers and real, verifiable metrics. XFire is self-selected, since it only uses numbers from people who have it installed, and it can also be manipulated.
Personally, I dont' see the point of using XFire numbers at all. If it's known to be unreliable and can easily be manipulated at will, then it's useless except as a a sig tool.
You are missing the simple, unquestionable fact... Your TV ratings example allow for the possibility of everyone to be chosen for the sample. Thus, if the sampling is done properly (which some are not), then the sample chosen reflects the total population.
However, X-fire data is only gathered from people who use X-fire. Thus, people who do not use X-fire have no possibility of being chosen for the sample. Thus, it is not known if it is representative of the population or not. All because of that massive variable.
Therefore, to claim that X-fire sample is representative of the total gaming population is self-serving motive and extremely bad statistical analysis.
Key phrase: "Within the XFire players". That means it's a self-selected sample, NOT representative of the game as a whole.
That's the point. It's stupid to say the game has peaked EIGHT DAYS after a launch because it slipped from #1 to #2 on XFire or whatever. Really? Is that how we're measuring failure now?
The question is not if the game will lose some players at the first 2 months, it will. The question is if it will grow and beat the sub numbers for the first month or not.
Few games ever got more players than it had the first month, Wow, Eve and GW are the 3 last resent I can think about. If TOR can do it the game will be remembered as a huge success.
Since some people can't seem to grasp the concept:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-selection_bias
XFire is a perfect example of self-selection bias. Using it as a metric for anything is meaningless, since people have to install it to use it, thus excluding large sections of a game's playerbase. ANY game's playerbase, BTW, not just SWTOR's.
As a statistical tool, it would be tossed out because it's not going to give reliable information.
So that makes it ok for you to sit on here and hope the game will die or fail.....
I mean get a life buddy if you have nothing better to do then sit on here and complain about TOR something is wrong..... It's a (shallow themepark) according to you so move on then find another MMO that you like is it that hard.....
GW2 is coming sometime this year and it's gonna be the second coming of christ so you should be satisfied with all the innovation.....
Wait, it was never at #1, was it?
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
Who cares? Using the numbers from something that people have to self-select and install is pointless.
Doesn't matter if it's TOR, Modern Warfare 3, EVE, Skyrim, or whatever -- using XFire numbers to measure popularity or to make a definitive claim that a game has peaked is ridiculous. The numbers are going to be unreliable.
All 3 of those titles aside from wow had somewhat of a player driven endgame, i could see the appeal to resub and strive for things in EVE, i saw the appeal in buying the next guild wars xpac(skills,gear for pvp),i never saw the appeal for resubing to wow...but people did it for what im assuming is the social raiding aspect of the game.
Whats TOR's appeal for resubing?
It was never #1 and you know that if it was people would be flaunting it saying how it does matter instead of saying that Xfire numbers don't count. If people would actually go on there and calcuate the values vs something like WoW based on PCU data then they would see that it comes out pretty close to a good estimation but nope, Chuck Testa.
Basing anything on unreliable data is unreliable.