Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

Yamota

Originally posted by echolynfan

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by OkhamsRazor

 I went to get a copy in Game at lunchtime today for my wife . They told me they had sold out every copy they had in stock withing three hours today .50 copys in three hours in one shop . Fortunatly I managed to get one in the local gamespot where they had a couple left .

Peaked dont make me laugh this games nowhere near peaking . It could take months before it reaches its peak or even years like WoW did .

This games going to be a massive success . I wont go so far as to say it will be on a par WoW yet but if the momentum keeps up and when servers are opened in China and Russia etc then it is by no means impossible .

 

And why exactly is that? The game does not have one single feature that makes it stand out from others. Unless you consider single player storylines, in an MMORPG, to be that feature.

WoW has already filled the casual MMORPG market pretty well. What is left is being filled by Rift, Aion, WAR and all the other score of WoW clones.

But I digress, may be too early to say the game has peaked. I will give it a couple of weeks more...

Yes it does..it DOESN'T have Elves, Orcs, Trolls, Fairies, Dragons and every other overused fantasy characters in every other MMO on the market. What is does have is Star Wars - and this you still don't understand.

Uhm, using a different skin on mobs and pastering the Star Wars logo on a game does not automatically make it better or even much different.

Eliandal

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Thillian

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

Ahhh, okay, I see.  So since X-Fire now shows that TOR is allegedly peaking, it's okay to use that info?  But a week ago when someone brought up the impressive X-Fire numbers, all the haters blew it off because nobody uses X-Fire.

You guys really need to get on the same page.  Your waffling is giving me whiplash.

 

  ....except, it's numbers haven't peaked - yet anyways

Wickedjelly

Originally posted by Cthulhu23

You guys really need to get on the same page.  Your waffling is giving me whiplash.

Which group? Both sides do it anyways especially in relation to things like Xfire. Great when it backs their point of view and then completely dismiss them when it shows a trend opposed to their wants.

Anyways at this stage of the game using Xfire numbers right now seems silly to me regardless your position. Look for trends in a while not right now.

FatherAnolev

Originally posted by Yamota

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

Peaked so far... sure... but they also haven't put all of their copies out into the stores yet either.  BioWare has said in multiple press releases already that they are slowly pushing the game out to the public, to ensure server stability.

Of course I have no idea if the numbers will actually go up when more copies get put into stores - they could just sit on the shelves and gather dust.  But don't base anything on the first 3 days... BioWare isn't taking a typical "flood the stores" approach to launching their game. 

Golelorn

I went against my better senses, and tried it out. Its OK. Its fun for 4 or 5 days. Then its obvious some things are not well planned, or just flat out bad design.

IMO, to survive it needs a modern LFG tool, an economy, and more rewarding crafting. It would not hurt to make stats actually matter. I see marginal results when I unequip all my gear. Also, my companion tank with heavy armor has a 5% mitigation increase above my light armor. That seems idiotic.

kakasaki

Originally posted by DarLorkar

Originally posted by kakasaki

Originally posted by Robokapp

Originally posted by rznkain

Originally posted by Yamota

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

   

       Oh no xfire says it so must be true.I never have used that junky service and none of my friends that I know of use it.But yea all over for Bioware/EA they should just close up shop.Maybe they can hire you since you apprently know so much you can CEO from your moms basement and make the bestest game evahh

does the word 'sampling' mean anything to you?

 

look it up.

I suggest YOU look up "sampling bias" before posting... I swear folks, I don't care one iota about SWTOR (heck, I haven't played it nor have no plans of purchasing it in the near future) but as someone who performs data analysis for a living, chaps my hide when people bring up X-Fire (or forums posters) as an example of a random unbiased population. I mean, I know people want to add "facts" behind their argument but don't bring statistics in if you don't know how they work...

Heh, who said anything about "as an example of a random unbiased population"?

You can twist anything to mean anything in the end eh?

The number for x-fire users today compared to the x-fire users 2 weeks from now and again in 1 month can show statistics for x-fire users yes?

Of the "as an example of a random unbiased population" naw we will leave that to you "Pros"

 

Well the title states xfire but on the post he goes on to say the game has peaked and makes a prediction that the game will drop without making a mention of xfire. Only thing I can infer from the post is he is using xfire data to make a broad generalization about the game. But hey, I just do this for a living. I'll leave the overgeneralizations and flimsy evidence to you forum "pros"...

alakram

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Statistics usually works this way, you ask a percenteage of the population and then you have an idea. Xfire is as reliable as a statistic, not everybody uses it and I'm not saying it's a good source but it is not as bad as it looks. At least we can have and idea of how the population of any game, swtor in this case is developing, if it goes up or down it will most probably be tha same with the game. Of course is just a guess, but a not too bad one.

Vato26

Originally posted by teiohFromSWG

Originally posted by Vato26

Originally posted by teiohFromSWG

Originally posted by BadSpock

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Xfire has always been irrelevant.

Find out what WoW peaked at on Xfire, then figure out official released subscriber numbers for that same time period.

You'll notice a huge difference.

 

Xfire should never be used to figure out what the total subscriber number is, it's only signifigance is a general trend of whether the populations is increasing, decreasing or staying stable

xfire has accurately told us about other mmorpgs whether the game is stable, growing or bleeding subs. People who say things like 'I don't know anyone who uses xfire so therefore it's not valid' are showing massive amounts of ignorance.

I wonder what these people say when polling a couple thousand people can give very accurate results for presidential elections.

At the end of hte day it doesn't matter what they say because we know from past MMOs that xfire gives accurate trends.

X-fire is only relevant in finding the trends of users WITHIN the X-fire community.  It has absolutely no statistical relevance for comparisons of the total gaming population, because no one knows the percentage of the gaming population that uses X-fire.

based on how accurate it's been in telling the downfall of all the other MMORPG I would absolutely say that the xfire community accurately represents the trends of the broader mmorpg community.

Please provide proof of your assertion.

Vato26

Originally posted by alakram

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Statistics usually works this way, you ask a percenteage of the population and then you have an idea. Xfire is as reliable as a statistic, not everybody uses it and I'm not saying it's a good source but it is not as bad as it looks. At least we can have and idea of how the population of any game, swtor in this case is developing, if it goes up or down it will most probably be tha same with the game. Of course is just a guess, but a not too bad one.

No.  X-fire is only reliable as a statistic when measuring the population WITHIN X-fire.  It has no reliability when trying to link it with the population OUTSIDE X-fire.

Shivam

Originally posted by Yamota

 

Uhm, using a different skin on mobs and pastering the Star Wars logo on a game does not automatically make it better or even much different.

Only because you believe that SWTOR is nothing more than re skinned WOW doesn't make it a fact or automatically makes game worse. 

pharazonic

Unfortunately it is a reskinned WoW - the CEO of EA has admited as much. 

When the horse says it... how can you truly argue against that?

Angier2758

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

The game is almost always the most popular the first weeks after launch so if the game does not pick up in the next couple of weeks then this is indeed the peak. Specially considering that many people are free during the christmas holidays and all.

{mod edit}

 

However.... my server did a reverse bell curve over the holidays... it had a large queue then didn't Frida/Saturday/Sunday/Monday and right now has a large queue (thus why I'm posting).

 

You probably don't care, but I doubt my server is "odd".

Shivam

Originally posted by pharazonic

Unfortunately it is a reskinned WoW - the CEO of EA has admited as much. 

When the horse says it... how can you truly argue against that?

Please feel free to take things out of context to make your point. 

Angier2758

Originally posted by pharazonic

Unfortunately it is a reskinned WoW - the CEO of EA has admited as much. 

When the horse says it... how can you truly argue against that?

source?

pharazonic

I don't find Xfire reliable but I think we have seen SWTOR peak. this is it folks, it's going to be variations fo the way it is now. 

I don't think that's a bad thing... especially when in most MMOs, a plunge follows the peak. 

 

I do have to chuckle at the fanbois, "3.5 million subs!!" LOL.

69Cuda

Hey look i dont care one way or the other honestly. I am liking tor ect ect ad nasuem and if you dont thats cool as well.

 

BUT X -Fire???

 

LOL give me a break does anyone even still use this? I didn't read any of this article or its responses because I believe its an irrelevant posting.

 

There is a reason people don't really talk about x - fire anymore. Cause they don't use it.

 

Shivam

Originally posted by pharazonic

I don't find Xfire reliable but I think we have seen SWTOR peak. this is it folks, it's going to be variations fo the way it is now. 

I don't think that's a bad thing... especially when in most MMOs, a plunge follows the peak. 

 

I do have to chuckle at the fanbois, "3.5 million subs!!" LOL.

Again citation needed. Which fanbois? how many? 2? 3 or just 1? stop lumping everyone together in one group.

Pelaaja

Originally posted by Angier2758

Originally posted by pharazonic

Unfortunately it is a reskinned WoW - the CEO of EA has admited as much. 

When the horse says it... how can you truly argue against that?

source?

Source

Ignorance is bliss, isn't it?

You're not the only one here thinking it's cool to hate WoW and love the derivatives.

pharazonic

Originally posted by zymurgeist

Originally posted by pharazonic

I don't find Xfire reliable but I think we have seen SWTOR peak. this is it folks, it's going to be variations fo the way it is now. 

I don't think that's a bad thing... especially when in most MMOs, a plunge follows the peak. 

 

I do have to chuckle at the fanbois, "3.5 million subs!!" LOL.

 Have you seen the sales figures lately?

 

It's the free month, wait a while. 

And TBC sold 3.5 million copies in its first month... in 2007 when MMORPGs and gaming in general wasn't as mainstream. 

Analysts have predicted what, 1.5 million?

 

EA has vaguely said 1 million? "fastest growing MMO" - what a farce. That's code word for "it's not doing as well as we hoped". If they had the definite figures that they hoped, they'd blare it on loudspeakers and slap a sticker on the side of their boxes

Shivam

Originally posted by Pelaaja

Originally posted by Angier2758

Originally posted by pharazonic

Unfortunately it is a reskinned WoW - the CEO of EA has admited as much. 

When the horse says it... how can you truly argue against that?

source?

Source

Ignorance is bliss, isn't it?

You're not the only one here thinking it's cool to hate WoW and love the derivatives.

All i read was that Bioware is trying to follow same standards that were set by WOW in game play. I didn't know that somehow makes SWTOR a reskinned WOW. But like i said people like to read whatever they want to read as long as it helps their agenda.

pharazonic

Originally posted by Shivam

All i read was that Bioware is trying to follow same standards that were set by WOW in game play. I didn't know that somehow makes SWTOR a reskinned WOW. But like i said people like to read whatever they want to read as long as it helps their agenda.

 

Maybe you ought to read between the lines then? 

BW has time and time said that they want a chunk of the WoW pie - how will they do that? Make a standard themepark game and add voice overs to it. How is it not a clone? 

RIFT tried to do something different by combining:

a) PQ from WAR

b) calling-soul-role system from FF? (I'm not sure but it's definitely from another MMO)

c) overall polsih from WoW

 

SWTOR:

a) Story which is basically their SRPGs... it's not even like they crafted this awesome story that involved players and the world on a massive scale (sort of like EVE)

b) everything else from WoW

 

The writing is very clear; you are the one choosing not to see it, IMO. 

Pelaaja

Originally posted by Shivam

Originally posted by Pelaaja

Originally posted by Angier2758

Originally posted by pharazonic

Unfortunately it is a reskinned WoW - the CEO of EA has admited as much. 

When the horse says it... how can you truly argue against that?

source?

Source

Ignorance is bliss, isn't it?

You're not the only one here thinking it's cool to hate WoW and love the derivatives.

All i read was that Bioware is trying to follow same standards that were set by WOW in game play. I didn't know that somehow makes SWTOR a reskinned WOW. But like i said people like to read whatever they want to read as long as it helps their agenda.

English isn't my 1st, but even I did dechiper some text to my own language. I took the time to give you  quote:

""It is a touchstone," Zeschuk told the audience. "It has established standards, it's established how you play an MMO. Every MMO that comes out, I play and look at it. And if they break any of the WoW rules, in my book that's pretty dumb. If you have established standards, WoW established them." "

I don't know what it says to you, but to me it says they do a WoW rehash.

I don't know about any agenda, didn't get the memo.

But you shouldn't enter the forums where games are discussed about unless you have basic knowledge. Or you are willing to learn more about the games discussed about.

Shivam

Originally posted by Pelaaja

Originally posted by Shivam

Originally posted by Pelaaja

Originally posted by Angier2758

Originally posted by pharazonic

Unfortunately it is a reskinned WoW - the CEO of EA has admited as much. 

When the horse says it... how can you truly argue against that?

source?

Source

Ignorance is bliss, isn't it?

You're not the only one here thinking it's cool to hate WoW and love the derivatives.

All i read was that Bioware is trying to follow same standards that were set by WOW in game play. I didn't know that somehow makes SWTOR a reskinned WOW. But like i said people like to read whatever they want to read as long as it helps their agenda.

English isn't my 1st, but even I did dechiper some text to my own language. I took the time to give you  quote:

""It is a touchstone," Zeschuk told the audience. "It has established standards, it's established how you play an MMO. Every MMO that comes out, I play and look at it. And if they break any of the WoW rules, in my book that's pretty dumb. If you have established standards, WoW established them." "

I don't know what it says to you, but to me it says they do a WoW rehash.

I don't know about any agenda, didn't get the memo.

But you shouldn't enter the forums where games are discussed about unless you have basic knowledge. Or you are willing to learn more about the games discussed about.

If someone doesn't feel or believe that SWTOR isn't WOW clone doesn't mean they lack basic knowledge, it simply means they disagree with you on particular point. You can interpret what they meant by 'following standards set by WOW' into 'hey WOW clone'..you have all the right to do so. But please don't imply that it is 100% true and that is exactly what EA/Bioware said that they are going to reskinn WOW.

WOW has set lots of high standards in MMO industry which could mean anything.... the whole comment is so vague and left open to interpretation.

alexmino

Originally posted by Thillian

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

You need to reality check yourself if you think they have 20 million accounts registered.

Shivam

Originally posted by pharazonic

Originally posted by Shivam

All i read was that Bioware is trying to follow same standards that were set by WOW in game play. I didn't know that somehow makes SWTOR a reskinned WOW. But like i said people like to read whatever they want to read as long as it helps their agenda.

 

Maybe you ought to read between the lines then? 

BW has time and time said that they want a chunk of the WoW pie - how will they do that? Make a standard themepark game and add voice overs to it. How is it not a clone? 

RIFT tried to do something different by combining:

a) PQ from WAR

b) calling-soul-role system from FF? (I'm not sure but it's definitely from another MMO)

c) overall polsih from WoW

 

SWTOR:

a) Story which is basically their SRPGs... it's not even like they crafted this awesome story that involved players and the world on a massive scale (sort of like EVE)

b) everything else from WoW

 

The writing is very clear; you are the one choosing not to see it, IMO. 

No i am just not willing to read what you want me to read. The comment by EA/Bioware is so vague, by following standards set by WOW could mean anything..polish, accessibility, quality... i don't have a very narrow point of view to somehow translate a vague comment into 'EA admitted that they are going to reskin WOW'... sorry that is not what i read even though you want me to believe that.