Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

rznkain

Originally posted by Robokapp

Originally posted by rznkain

Originally posted by Yamota

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

   

       Oh no xfire says it so must be true.I never have used that junky service and none of my friends that I know of use it.But yea all over for Bioware/EA they should just close up shop.Maybe they can hire you since you apprently know so much you can CEO from your moms basement and make the bestest game evahh

does the word 'sampling' mean anything to you?

 

look it up.

 Sample all you like I could care less if it's huge or it slides into Rift like status I am enjoying it atm I do not focus my life around it I have no investment tied up in it.Only ppl it seems to be bothering is you nerd ragers who will have to soon move over to GW2 and cry and complain about it when it ends up not being the next big thing.

Xzen

I've seen this thread before.......

PvPME

But, Xfire said so...

rheinpfalzer

To put things into perspective i am not allowed to buy TOR until mid January as i have holiday obligations lol. But i can play MW3 and BF3 to my hearts content what a crock lol

Vhaln

In theory, XFire could be wildy inaccurate for all sorts of reasons, and yet oddly enough, the trends its shown in the past have turned out to be pretty close to the truth, at least in terms of how popular games are compared to one another, and which direction a game is trending.

Laughing-man

Originally posted by hercules

Actually its a bit of a misinformation that people play more during xmas/new year.Not saying swtor might not have peaked but i used to think holidays were for gaming myself and more people will play but after becoming a family man i found out rarely do you game during the holidays if at all ,i personally only logged in first time today (just before patch) since the 24th.

People come from all walks of life, you are not representative of the general population, nor am I.

Sadly, yes the holidays ARE a time for gaming, if you don't think so then you havn't tried to log on to WoW or SWTOR or any popular gaming site, they are crammed with people on vacation, adults take breaks too.

I know quite a few people who are on vacation for SWTOR's launch, a few of them are over 30 and have kids.

Just sayin...

 

Oh also, Xfire number measuring is fail.

Souldrainer

I could honestly care less if the game goes down to 100 subs.  It's a Star Wars MMO with story, great sound, action, tons of features, and it's brand new.  I will be playing for at least a few thousand hours.

That said, Xfire has never been a good metric.

kakasaki

Originally posted by Robokapp

Originally posted by rznkain

Originally posted by Yamota

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

   

       Oh no xfire says it so must be true.I never have used that junky service and none of my friends that I know of use it.But yea all over for Bioware/EA they should just close up shop.Maybe they can hire you since you apprently know so much you can CEO from your moms basement and make the bestest game evahh

does the word 'sampling' mean anything to you?

 

look it up.

I suggest YOU look up "sampling bias" before posting... I swear folks, I don't care one iota about SWTOR (heck, I haven't played it nor have no plans of purchasing it in the near future) but as someone who performs data analysis for a living, chaps my hide when people bring up X-Fire (or forums posters) as an example of a random unbiased population. I mean, I know people want to add "facts" behind their argument but don't bring statistics in if you don't know how they work...

Raven

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by onthestick

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

 

Hehe how very wrong you are, games are already a really bad investment, and I mean really bad, if an investor with some serious cash wants to make money they would not invest in games at all. EA is kept afloat by its creditors that have already injected money onto it and probably have other more profitable ventures.

If this game fails with this abysmal amount of investment, then what is gonna happen is no one is going to invest in MMOs anymore cause its just too risky, you will only be left with the subpar Darkfall, Mortal Online sort of development milking whatever ppl are left in the MMO space that arent playing Blizzard games.

It is pretty simple and sorry to be blunt, I dont care if this fails or not tbh, I like the game and I will be playing it for as long as I  think it is fun, as I would any other MMO that would I be having fun in. But MMORPGs existance is really hanging by a thread whether or not SWTOR was/is successful and was even released.

Since before WoW was released MMORPGs have been hanging by a thread and I doubt without WoW we would even have any real investment in the MMO space at this present day whether its sandbox or theme park, I really see this year probably being the last full of non korean releases if these games really dont pickup more attention and interest (i.e. make the investors some money). It will darkfall after darkfall from the western market.

But hey on the bright side I love korean mmos aswell so for me all good, and they are pretty successful over there so as long as that happens they wont close over here.

 

rznkain

Originally posted by kakasaki

Originally posted by Robokapp

Originally posted by rznkain

Originally posted by Yamota

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

   

       Oh no xfire says it so must be true.I never have used that junky service and none of my friends that I know of use it.But yea all over for Bioware/EA they should just close up shop.Maybe they can hire you since you apprently know so much you can CEO from your moms basement and make the bestest game evahh

does the word 'sampling' mean anything to you?

 

look it up.

I suggest YOU look up "sampling bias" before posting... I swear folks, I don't care one iota about SWTOR (heck, I haven't played it nor have no plans of purchasing it in the near future) but as someone who performs data analysis for a living, chaps my hide when people bring up X-Fire (or forums posters) as an example of a random unbiased population. I mean, I know people want to add "facts" behind their argument but don't bring statistics in if you don't know how they work...

    There you go talking common sense to the trolls you will have a riot on your hands.

echolynfan

Originally posted by onthestick

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by onthestick

Originally posted by Vhaln

A few days isn't a trend.  I know, we're all dying to say "I told you so!" but really need to wait a month at least, to see any real indication of the game popularity increasing, decreasing, or even leveling off.  Three months to be sure it won't turn around, and six months before it'll really be indisputable.

Really people actually wait for that? makes me just sad thinking about the mentality some people have.

Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.

Thanks for just confirming what i said earlier.

People will play games to have fun - period. I'm sorry to break this to you but SWTOR is NOT shallow - for a just released MMO it is crammed full of stuff to do. I've played A LOT of different MMO's from EQII to SWG to Eve, Darkfall Online, City Of Heroes, Fallen Earth, Wow...and on and on so I'm not new to MMO gaming.

I think all of the SWTOR doomsayer blowhards need to get together - get financial backing and create their "perfect" innovative MMO and show all of us morons who don't understand how an MMO should be. I mean...how dare any of us have fun in SWTOR when it's obviously for mindless dolts?

Purutzil

How dare you state the trend  of most MMO games released in today's market! In a months time its pretty much a certainty the population will jump. The biggest factor is how much retension th game has. I have a feeling if most people continued to 'zoom zoom' through content and reach end game ToR population will drop pretty drastically due to the lack of content at the end. particularly if they don't have any planned releases announced to quickly for the end game player. 

If most players can take hold of the whole 'story focused' world and continue through that way, I'd say the time before people start becoming iffy will take 2-3 months longer of a steady drop.

NasherUK

It's dropped because when early access ended you needed to have a retail cd-key to continue playing, you also needed to enter payment info.  A lot of people won't have done that yet.  Also as Xfire is a 3rd party program you never know how accurate it is.

LethalBurst

What's Xfire?

DarLorkar

Originally posted by kakasaki

Originally posted by Robokapp

Originally posted by rznkain

Originally posted by Yamota

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.

   

       Oh no xfire says it so must be true.I never have used that junky service and none of my friends that I know of use it.But yea all over for Bioware/EA they should just close up shop.Maybe they can hire you since you apprently know so much you can CEO from your moms basement and make the bestest game evahh

does the word 'sampling' mean anything to you?

 

look it up.

I suggest YOU look up "sampling bias" before posting... I swear folks, I don't care one iota about SWTOR (heck, I haven't played it nor have no plans of purchasing it in the near future) but as someone who performs data analysis for a living, chaps my hide when people bring up X-Fire (or forums posters) as an example of a random unbiased population. I mean, I know people want to add "facts" behind their argument but don't bring statistics in if you don't know how they work...

Heh, who said anything about "as an example of a random unbiased population"?

You can twist anything to mean anything in the end eh?

The number for x-fire users today compared to the x-fire users 2 weeks from now and again in 1 month can show statistics for x-fire users yes?

Of the "as an example of a random unbiased population" naw we will leave that to you "Pros"

 

echolynfan

Originally posted by Yamota

Originally posted by OkhamsRazor

 I went to get a copy in Game at lunchtime today for my wife . They told me they had sold out every copy they had in stock withing three hours today .50 copys in three hours in one shop . Fortunatly I managed to get one in the local gamespot where they had a couple left .

Peaked dont make me laugh this games nowhere near peaking . It could take months before it reaches its peak or even years like WoW did .

This games going to be a massive success . I wont go so far as to say it will be on a par WoW yet but if the momentum keeps up and when servers are opened in China and Russia etc then it is by no means impossible .

 

And why exactly is that? The game does not have one single feature that makes it stand out from others. Unless you consider single player storylines, in an MMORPG, to be that feature.

WoW has already filled the casual MMORPG market pretty well. What is left is being filled by Rift, Aion, WAR and all the other score of WoW clones.

But I digress, may be too early to say the game has peaked. I will give it a couple of weeks more...

Yes it does..it DOESN'T have Elves, Orcs, Trolls, Fairies, Dragons and every other overused fantasy characters in every other MMO on the market. What is does have is Star Wars - and this you still don't understand.

BadSpock

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Xfire has always been irrelevant.

Find out what WoW peaked at on Xfire, then figure out official released subscriber numbers for that same time period.

You'll notice a huge difference.

dikky

Originally posted by BadSpock

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Xfire has always been irrelevant.

Find out what WoW peaked at on Xfire, then figure out official released subscriber numbers for that same time period.

You'll notice a huge difference.

 

Xfire should never be used to figure out what the total subscriber number is, it's only signifigance is a general trend of whether the populations is increasing, decreasing or staying stable

xfire has accurately told us about other mmorpgs whether the game is stable, growing or bleeding subs. People who say things like 'I don't know anyone who uses xfire so therefore it's not valid' are showing massive amounts of ignorance.

I wonder what these people say when polling a couple thousand people can give very accurate results for presidential elections.

At the end of hte day it doesn't matter what they say because we know from past MMOs that xfire gives accurate trends.

Vato26

Originally posted by teiohFromSWG

Originally posted by BadSpock

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Xfire has always been irrelevant.

Find out what WoW peaked at on Xfire, then figure out official released subscriber numbers for that same time period.

You'll notice a huge difference.

 

Xfire should never be used to figure out what the total subscriber number is, it's only signifigance is a general trend of whether the populations is increasing, decreasing or staying stable

xfire has accurately told us about other mmorpgs whether the game is stable, growing or bleeding subs. People who say things like 'I don't know anyone who uses xfire so therefore it's not valid' are showing massive amounts of ignorance.

I wonder what these people say when polling a couple thousand people can give very accurate results for presidential elections.

At the end of hte day it doesn't matter what they say because we know from past MMOs that xfire gives accurate trends.

X-fire is only relevant in finding the trends of users WITHIN the X-fire community.  It has absolutely no statistical relevance for comparisons of the total gaming population, because no one knows the percentage of the gaming population that uses X-fire.

Distopia

Originally posted by Vato26

 

X-fire is only relevant in finding the trends of users WITHIN the X-fire community.  It has absolutely no statistical relevance for comparisons of the total gaming population, because no one knows the percentage of the gaming population that uses X-fire.

^this^

Eliandal

   Even among X-fire users, the total daily hours has been steadily going up!  Yesterday it was around 64K hours.  Today it's around 71K hours.

 

  Still pretty hefty numbers

FrodoFragins

It's the holidays!  It's a bit too early to claim SWTOR has peaked.

 

X-Fire only attracts a certain subset of the gaming community.  It is only a good measure of those users.  It would be like only polling asian females and using those numbers to estimate who everyone voted for.

 

 

Cthulhu23

Originally posted by Thillian

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

Ahhh, okay, I see.  So since X-Fire now shows that TOR is allegedly peaking, it's okay to use that info?  But a week ago when someone brought up the impressive X-Fire numbers, all the haters blew it off because nobody uses X-Fire.

You guys really need to get on the same page.  Your waffling is giving me whiplash.

Pelaaja

Originally posted by Vato26

Originally posted by teiohFromSWG

Originally posted by BadSpock

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Xfire has always been irrelevant.

Find out what WoW peaked at on Xfire, then figure out official released subscriber numbers for that same time period.

You'll notice a huge difference.

 

Xfire should never be used to figure out what the total subscriber number is, it's only signifigance is a general trend of whether the populations is increasing, decreasing or staying stable

xfire has accurately told us about other mmorpgs whether the game is stable, growing or bleeding subs. People who say things like 'I don't know anyone who uses xfire so therefore it's not valid' are showing massive amounts of ignorance.

I wonder what these people say when polling a couple thousand people can give very accurate results for presidential elections.

At the end of hte day it doesn't matter what they say because we know from past MMOs that xfire gives accurate trends.

X-fire is only relevant in finding the trends of users WITHIN the X-fire community.  It has absolutely no statistical relevance for comparisons of the total gaming population, because no one knows the percentage of the gaming population that uses X-fire.

True.

Take elections for example. No one knows how many will eventually go vote and yet they manage to calculate the outcome quite right. But that's not what you should use X-Fire for.

You should take a long enough timeline and see the trend of played minutes. You can't simply nullify the outcome by saying it's not used, specially now because SW:TOR is aimed towards the audience that surely uses X-Fire (non-MMO-folks).

It's too early to say anything about SW:TOR basing on X-Fire, but in 2-3 months the trend can be seen and taken into equation.

dikky

Originally posted by Vato26

Originally posted by teiohFromSWG

Originally posted by BadSpock

Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

Xfire has always been irrelevant.

Find out what WoW peaked at on Xfire, then figure out official released subscriber numbers for that same time period.

You'll notice a huge difference.

 

Xfire should never be used to figure out what the total subscriber number is, it's only signifigance is a general trend of whether the populations is increasing, decreasing or staying stable

xfire has accurately told us about other mmorpgs whether the game is stable, growing or bleeding subs. People who say things like 'I don't know anyone who uses xfire so therefore it's not valid' are showing massive amounts of ignorance.

I wonder what these people say when polling a couple thousand people can give very accurate results for presidential elections.

At the end of hte day it doesn't matter what they say because we know from past MMOs that xfire gives accurate trends.

X-fire is only relevant in finding the trends of users WITHIN the X-fire community.  It has absolutely no statistical relevance for comparisons of the total gaming population, because no one knows the percentage of the gaming population that uses X-fire.

based on how accurate it's been in telling the downfall of all the other MMORPG I would absolutely say that the xfire community accurately represents the trends of the broader mmorpg community.