You are probably right in that the overall active population in the servers has gone down. However, that does not directly indicate the same decline in subscriptions. The fact is people had much more time to play during the holidays. Now, concurrent population on servers normalizes with people working and whatnot.
If you can show how concurrent server population is related to subscriber numbers, then you'd have a better case. For example, you could use Blizzard's numbers and show how a decline in subscribers (as reported by Blizzard) directly correlates to a decline in concurrent players online. Show us the relationship between the two, and then show us those graphs you posted. Only then will you have a more solid case.
These graphs do show information and a trend. SWTOR's initial launch was around a time where lots and lots of players had lots of time to play. It's a abnormal period of time and play and when everything steadies out I'm sure the graphs will be much lower still.
Also something to point out about the graphs on SWTORArena is that if you look at all the graphs overall you will notice the drop from 5 to 3 on the graphs all occur around the same time. This is also around the same time they made a post on the forums saying they where working on tweaking the server caps for the servers.
So that could easily explain the so called drop in population around them times. It appears as a drop but in reality it could have easily been a server cap increase across the boards on the servers.
What you're looking at is people are playing fewer hours per day. It says nothing about subscription numbers either way.
So thats two people who don't think there is any correlation there at all. (I love SWTOR forums these days - Drink it in!)
To go off-topic, am I the only one that browse the SWTOR forums for entertainment while at work?
Only when compiling though, it takes 20mins.
Nah I do, it's funny to see the same couple of people post so much negativity about a game they do not play. Does the game have issues? Yes, most games do when they are launched *glares at WOW's loot bug*. But to get so worked up over something and post day in and out about doom and gloom must really make them a sad panda.
wow so many people had to come and defend their precious SWTOR. I find it interesting how the graphs are alike and of course there is a decrease in population since the free month is up. It didn't meet people's expectations.
Also something to point out about the graphs on SWTORArena is that if you look at all the graphs overall you will notice the drop from 5 to 3 on the graphs all occur around the same time. This is also around the same time they made a post on the forums saying they where working on tweaking the server caps for the servers.
So that could easily explain the so called drop in population around them times. It appears as a drop but in reality it could have easily been a server cap increase across the boards on the servers.
Uh.. raising the cap and allowing more players onto a server wouldn't affect the population statistics of the server.
I'd say it's a pretty funny coincidence they're almost identical, considering how XFire measures it's own userbase, while Swtorarena measures Bioware's own server-load system.
What does that tell us, other than the userbase shrinking? Absolutely nothing.
What you're looking at is people are playing fewer hours per day. It says nothing about subscription numbers either way.
So thats two people who don't think there is any correlation there at all. (I love SWTOR forums these days - Drink it in!)
To go off-topic, am I the only one that browse the SWTOR forums for entertainment while at work?
Only when compiling though, it takes 20mins.
100% with you. The worse it gets; the crazier the logic. It's kinda like those insane newspapers at grocery stores... you just gotta read the headline no matter how wild it gets. I love SWTOR fans!
What you're looking at is people are playing fewer hours per day. It says nothing about subscription numbers either way.
So thats two people who don't think there is any correlation there at all. (I love SWTOR forums these days - Drink it in!)
To go off-topic, am I the only one that browse the SWTOR forums for entertainment while at work?
Only when compiling though, it takes 20mins.
Nah I do, it's funny to see the same couple of people post so much negativity about a game they do not play. Does the game have issues? Yes, most games do when they are launched *glares at WOW's loot bug*. But to get so worked up over something and post day in and out about doom and gloom must really make them a sad panda.
Yeah, then again, I am almost convinced that some analyst is looking at this forum as a 'MMO health' for companies.
That's the only thing I can think of, on what happened on thursday with EA Stock.
Cause seriously, wtf were people smoking that day? I could not get to the phone fast enough as I couldn't believe what the computer was showing me.
Yeah the market is volitile and fundamentally irrational but it was like watching people throw money away.
Gdemami - Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.
What you're looking at is people are playing fewer hours per day. It says nothing about subscription numbers either way.
So thats two people who don't think there is any correlation there at all. (I love SWTOR forums these days - Drink it in!)
To go off-topic, am I the only one that browse the SWTOR forums for entertainment while at work?
Only when compiling though, it takes 20mins.
Nah I do, it's funny to see the same couple of people post so much negativity about a game they do not play. Does the game have issues? Yes, most games do when they are launched *glares at WOW's loot bug*. But to get so worked up over something and post day in and out about doom and gloom must really make them a sad panda.
And what if we do play?
I love posters like you that try and bring up past MMO's bugs and say "Well on launch they had this problem, so give SWTOR a break." Absolutely not. SWTOR has to compete with WoW, and other MMO's, how they are now. World of Warcraft 2012 vs. SWTOR 2012. With every day the standard rises higher and if development companies don't step up to the plate then the game just isn't acceptable.
If you're trying to justify SWTOR's bugs in 2012 because WoW had gamebreaking bugs in 2004, I really don't know how to respond to that.
Cant speak for other servers, but Anchorhead is still going strong. 2 instances of the fleet at nearly all times, 2 instances of DK and even Ilum was split into 2 last night at nearly 1 am CST.
Player bases always shrink after the first month, game is hardly a ghost town, lets move on.
So these are graphs showing that players have regained their sanity, and aren't so obsessed over this good game that they've stopped playing 12 hours a day, and now are playing a more reasonable 4 hours per day...
And this somehow shows a problem? Whenever ANY MMO launches, you have a spike in hours played, it then gradually tapers off as people decide they need to eat and sleep at some point.
Those graphs seem an accurate representation of what happens the third and fourth week after release for a new MMO.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
So these are graphs showing that players have regained their sanity, and aren't so obsessed over this good game that they've stopped playing 12 hours a day, and now are playing a more reasonable 4 hours per day...
And this somehow shows a problem? Whenever ANY MMO launches, you have a spike in hours played, it then gradually tapers off as people decide they need to eat and sleep at some point.
That started to happen 2 weeks ago. Now it's another thing completely.
Those graphs seem an accurate representation of what happens the third and fourth week after release for a new MMO.
I was just about to say this. You think WOW never had a population decline? Guess again. The business comes in peaks and valleys. Consider the timing of this graph. Yup... there will be a decline the day the free month runs out. Not even remotely surprising. The graphs are basically not showing much. Peak times are peak. Trough times are Trough. SWTOR lost some subs after 30 days like every MMO does. ITT: No real news of any kind.
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So these are graphs showing that players have regained their sanity, and aren't so obsessed over this good game that they've stopped playing 12 hours a day, and now are playing a more reasonable 4 hours per day...
And this somehow shows a problem? Whenever ANY MMO launches, you have a spike in hours played, it then gradually tapers off as people decide they need to eat and sleep at some point.
That started to happen 2 weeks ago. Now it's another thing completely.
I think the point thats being made here is its not due to people just .. not playing. I'm still subbed but I'm playing substantially less then I was the first 2 weeks.
The thing is, we have no idea on retention.. thats what really needs to be said. For all we know the game could be filled with a lot of people only playing 2 hours a day... or it could be filled with nearly nobody, but many of them stay logged in all day.
There are a lot of things we DON'T know regarding the information required to calculate where the population is at. One good starting point would be.. how many players signify a "standard" "Heavy" "very Heavy" or "Full" server. Some servers still get to full, while others stay on light mostly.
Comments
So thats two people who don't think there is any correlation there at all. (I love SWTOR forums these days - Drink it in!)
To go off-topic, am I the only one that browse the SWTOR forums for entertainment while at work?
Only when compiling though, it takes 20mins.
Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.
You are probably right in that the overall active population in the servers has gone down. However, that does not directly indicate the same decline in subscriptions. The fact is people had much more time to play during the holidays. Now, concurrent population on servers normalizes with people working and whatnot.
If you can show how concurrent server population is related to subscriber numbers, then you'd have a better case. For example, you could use Blizzard's numbers and show how a decline in subscribers (as reported by Blizzard) directly correlates to a decline in concurrent players online. Show us the relationship between the two, and then show us those graphs you posted. Only then will you have a more solid case.
These graphs do show information and a trend. SWTOR's initial launch was around a time where lots and lots of players had lots of time to play. It's a abnormal period of time and play and when everything steadies out I'm sure the graphs will be much lower still.
The population will reflect the game itself.
He who keeps his cool best wins.
Also something to point out about the graphs on SWTORArena is that if you look at all the graphs overall you will notice the drop from 5 to 3 on the graphs all occur around the same time. This is also around the same time they made a post on the forums saying they where working on tweaking the server caps for the servers.
So that could easily explain the so called drop in population around them times. It appears as a drop but in reality it could have easily been a server cap increase across the boards on the servers.
Nah I do, it's funny to see the same couple of people post so much negativity about a game they do not play. Does the game have issues? Yes, most games do when they are launched *glares at WOW's loot bug*. But to get so worked up over something and post day in and out about doom and gloom must really make them a sad panda.
In Bioware we trust!
The decrease in activity has continued after people went back to school/work. If that was the only reason it should have leveled out.
wow so many people had to come and defend their precious SWTOR. I find it interesting how the graphs are alike and of course there is a decrease in population since the free month is up. It didn't meet people's expectations.
Uh.. raising the cap and allowing more players onto a server wouldn't affect the population statistics of the server.
He who keeps his cool best wins.
I'd say it's a pretty funny coincidence they're almost identical, considering how XFire measures it's own userbase, while Swtorarena measures Bioware's own server-load system.
What does that tell us, other than the userbase shrinking? Absolutely nothing.
100% with you. The worse it gets; the crazier the logic. It's kinda like those insane newspapers at grocery stores... you just gotta read the headline no matter how wild it gets. I love SWTOR fans!
Yeah, then again, I am almost convinced that some analyst is looking at this forum as a 'MMO health' for companies.
That's the only thing I can think of, on what happened on thursday with EA Stock.
Cause seriously, wtf were people smoking that day? I could not get to the phone fast enough as I couldn't believe what the computer was showing me.
Yeah the market is volitile and fundamentally irrational but it was like watching people throw money away.
Gdemami -
Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.
And what if we do play?
I love posters like you that try and bring up past MMO's bugs and say "Well on launch they had this problem, so give SWTOR a break." Absolutely not. SWTOR has to compete with WoW, and other MMO's, how they are now. World of Warcraft 2012 vs. SWTOR 2012. With every day the standard rises higher and if development companies don't step up to the plate then the game just isn't acceptable.
If you're trying to justify SWTOR's bugs in 2012 because WoW had gamebreaking bugs in 2004, I really don't know how to respond to that.
He who keeps his cool best wins.
Player averages in Xfire for other MMO's is usually about 4-5 hrs a day, depending on whether it's weekday or weekend.
Very interesting. People not re-subbing to a new MMO after the included 30 days. I don't believe this has ever happened in the history of MMORPG's.
Keep up the good work. Keep us posted if this trend continues in other MMO's or if it is exclusive to SW:TOR.
Cant speak for other servers, but Anchorhead is still going strong. 2 instances of the fleet at nearly all times, 2 instances of DK and even Ilum was split into 2 last night at nearly 1 am CST.
Player bases always shrink after the first month, game is hardly a ghost town, lets move on.
My Guild Wars 2 Vids
What I find telling is that EA's share price dropped 4% in one day due to concerns over SW:TOR.
Source: http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/115365-EA-Share-Price-Slides-Over-Old-Republic-Concerns
and they got it from http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-falls-on-broker-concerns-about-star-wars-2012-01-19?siteid=yhoof2
F2P/P2P excellent thread.
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/282517/F2P-An-Engineers-perspective.html
Did you conveniently ignore the 50 posts today about how it went back up as other analyst claimed otherwise or just miss them?
My Guild Wars 2 Vids
well...interesting read OP, and not suprised of the outcome. will wait til EA themselves starts axing people then we can panic.
long as it does not hinder ME 3, im honey badgering this.
So these are graphs showing that players have regained their sanity, and aren't so obsessed over this good game that they've stopped playing 12 hours a day, and now are playing a more reasonable 4 hours per day...
And this somehow shows a problem? Whenever ANY MMO launches, you have a spike in hours played, it then gradually tapers off as people decide they need to eat and sleep at some point.
Those graphs seem an accurate representation of what happens the third and fourth week after release for a new MMO.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
That started to happen 2 weeks ago. Now it's another thing completely.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
I was just about to say this. You think WOW never had a population decline? Guess again. The business comes in peaks and valleys. Consider the timing of this graph. Yup... there will be a decline the day the free month runs out. Not even remotely surprising. The graphs are basically not showing much. Peak times are peak. Trough times are Trough. SWTOR lost some subs after 30 days like every MMO does. ITT: No real news of any kind.
Error: 37. Signature not found. Please connect to my server for signature access.
I think the point thats being made here is its not due to people just .. not playing. I'm still subbed but I'm playing substantially less then I was the first 2 weeks.
The thing is, we have no idea on retention.. thats what really needs to be said. For all we know the game could be filled with a lot of people only playing 2 hours a day... or it could be filled with nearly nobody, but many of them stay logged in all day.
There are a lot of things we DON'T know regarding the information required to calculate where the population is at. One good starting point would be.. how many players signify a "standard" "Heavy" "very Heavy" or "Full" server. Some servers still get to full, while others stay on light mostly.