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Current Graphs Showing Decline - (Found something interesting).

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  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Member EpicPosts: 6,057

    Originally posted by Chieftan

    Originally posted by Teala

    I find something rather interesting.  I know people keep saying you can't use xFire to measure the overall health of an MMO and it only shows the health of the game for those people that use xfire.   Cool, cool...if you want to believe that doesn't show the overall health of the game in general you're free to believe that.

    However, when matched against SWArena.com's graphic of server population numbers I saw something very intersting.   The peaks and valleys from the two graphics match up very well.   SWArena.com numbers take into account only SWTOR and it's player base.  It is weird that these two websites graphcs are so close to being the same(check out the peaks and valleys) it is, in my opinion, very telling.

    One thing is for certain, based on the numbers we're seeing from these two wesbites, SWTOR has lost a lot of players in just its first month.

    Hey sweetie when you were formulating this hypothesis did you happen to check the graphs of any of the other games on xFire?  You might want to do that before you start forming any more opinions.

    lol nm

  • BunksBunks Member Posts: 960

    Originally posted by Chieftan

    Originally posted by Teala

    I find something rather interesting.  I know people keep saying you can't use xFire to measure the overall health of an MMO and it only shows the health of the game for those people that use xfire.   Cool, cool...if you want to believe that doesn't show the overall health of the game in general you're free to believe that.

    However, when matched against SWArena.com's graphic of server population numbers I saw something very intersting.   The peaks and valleys from the two graphics match up very well.   SWArena.com numbers take into account only SWTOR and it's player base.  It is weird that these two websites graphcs are so close to being the same(check out the peaks and valleys) it is, in my opinion, very telling.

    One thing is for certain, based on the numbers we're seeing from these two wesbites, SWTOR has lost a lot of players in just its first month.

    Hey sweetie when you were formulating this hypothesis did you happen to check the graphs of any of the other games on xFire?  You might want to do that before you start forming any more opinions.

    funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    Originally posted by Teala

     

    One thing is for certain, based on the numbers we're seeing from these two wesbites, SWTOR has lost a lot of players in just its first month.

     

     

     

    If you want to go by xfire, xfire shows a drop in about 7.5% activity from the first weekend to the last weekend

  • CaldicotCaldicot Member UncommonPosts: 455

    What's the big deal? Of course a large enough sample is going to provide data to draw general conclusions from. It's basic statistics. Using two independent sources provides even more reliable data. The conclusion to be drawn from this example is that SWTOR is in decline at the moment. Are there any numbers that says anything other than that?

    If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe. - Carl Sagan

  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    Originally posted by Bunks

    funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

    you might want to go look at the chart again.

     

    Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

  • RidrithRidrith Member RarePosts: 859

    The graphs are really cool, but I'm about to ask the most important question of all.  Who actually gives a shit?  I know I don't.  I bought the game, played it for a days until I got to level 13 and quit.  Wasted $60.00.  I'm done with the game, and I'll never play it again.  HOWEVER.  Does it really matter that the playerbase is in decline?  In the grand scheme of things nobody is going to care about this information.  Unless you're an invenstor.  Which I doubt you are.

     

    The regular player is going be either:  A.  Playing the game, and not caring.  B.  Not playing the game, and still not caring.

     

    It's cool that this information is out there for us to look at, but, uh...  It's not really interesting.

    I like to complain about games.
  • BunksBunks Member Posts: 960

    Originally posted by teakbois

    Originally posted by Bunks

    funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

    you might want to go look at the chart again.

     

    Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

    someone needs a new calcualtor , and it isn't me.

  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    Originally posted by Ridrith

     

    It's cool that this information is out there for us to look at, but, uh...  It's not really interesting.

    I find it interesting personally, but then again I like statistics.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Member EpicPosts: 6,057

    Originally posted by Ridrith

    The graphs are really cool, but I'm about to ask the most important question of all.  Who actually gives a shit?  I know I don't.  I bought the game, played it for a days until I got to level 13 and quit.  Wasted $60.00.  I'm done with the game, and I'll never play it again.  HOWEVER.  Does it really matter that the playerbase is in decline?  In the grand scheme of things nobody is going to care about this information.  Unless you're an invenstor.  Which I doubt you are.

     

    The regular player is going be either:  A.  Playing the game, and not caring.  B.  Not playing the game, and still not caring.

     

    It's cool that this information is out there for us to look at, but, uh...  It's not really interesting.

    People care for lots of different reasons.  I care because I hope that there are many others who quit for some of the same reasons and that we can make a big enough dent to get them to make some much needed design changes.  Others care because they like to think XFire numbers mean something and want to see a correlation with more legitimate stats.  Others predicted the game to fail and like to look at anything that may prove them right.

  • BizkitNLBizkitNL Member RarePosts: 2,546

    Originally posted by Ridrith

    The graphs are really cool, but I'm about to ask the most important question of all.  Who actually gives a shit?  I know I don't.  I bought the game, played it for a days until I got to level 13 and quit.  Wasted $60.00.  I'm done with the game, and I'll never play it again.  HOWEVER.  Does it really matter that the playerbase is in decline?  In the grand scheme of things nobody is going to care about this information.  Unless you're an invenstor.  Which I doubt you are.

     

    The regular player is going be either:  A.  Playing the game, and not caring.  B.  Not playing the game, and still not caring.

     

    It's cool that this information is out there for us to look at, but, uh...  It's not really interesting.

    If I want to buy a banana, first thing I do is check if Chiquita's stocks are okay. If not, to hell with them! If so, then I gots me a yum-in-yer-tum banana.

    Elementary.

    10
  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    Originally posted by Bunks

    Originally posted by teakbois


    Originally posted by Bunks

    funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

    you might want to go look at the chart again.

     

    Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

    someone needs a new calcualtor , and it isn't me.

    105,000 down to 75,000 is more than 15%, dont need a calculator to see that

     

    Also 70,000 to 40,000 is not 55%.   Dont need a calculator for that either.

  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    Originally posted by Ridrith

      Boobs sell.

    would you prefer the pirate over here? ------->

  • alexminoalexmino Member Posts: 132

    This is a post where i make guesses at how a game that isn't my pet game is doing to make myself feel better because i take ownership of games i didn't make.

    Previous to this time, i talked about how World of Warcraft really wasn't that successful.

     

  • ChieftanChieftan Member UncommonPosts: 1,188

    Originally posted by Bunks

    Originally posted by Chieftan


    Originally posted by Teala

    I find something rather interesting.  I know people keep saying you can't use xFire to measure the overall health of an MMO and it only shows the health of the game for those people that use xfire.   Cool, cool...if you want to believe that doesn't show the overall health of the game in general you're free to believe that.

    However, when matched against SWArena.com's graphic of server population numbers I saw something very intersting.   The peaks and valleys from the two graphics match up very well.   SWArena.com numbers take into account only SWTOR and it's player base.  It is weird that these two websites graphcs are so close to being the same(check out the peaks and valleys) it is, in my opinion, very telling.

    One thing is for certain, based on the numbers we're seeing from these two wesbites, SWTOR has lost a lot of players in just its first month.

    Hey sweetie when you were formulating this hypothesis did you happen to check the graphs of any of the other games on xFire?  You might want to do that before you start forming any more opinions.

    funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

    All of the games in xFire's top 5 show a decline since December 19th. 

    My youtube MMO gaming channel



  • BunksBunks Member Posts: 960

    Originally posted by teakbois

    Originally posted by Bunks

    funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

    you might want to go look at the chart again.

     

    Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

    1/15

    70569 swtor

    1/19

    38669

    = .5479

    so yeah it dropped to 54% of its peak

  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    Originally posted by Chieftan

    All of the games in xFire's top 5 show a decline since December 19th. 

    3 of those games are ancient and the other is a 2 year old f2p game.

     

    In other words:  none of them had anywhere near the amount of new people joining since dec 19th as swtor did

  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    Originally posted by Bunks

    Originally posted by teakbois


    Originally posted by Bunks

    funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

    you might want to go look at the chart again.

     

    Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

    1/15

    70569 swtor

    1/19

    38669

    = .5479

    so yeah it dropped to 54% of its peak

    Which isnt a 55% drop off (or a 54% drop off)

  • DistopiaDistopia Member EpicPosts: 21,183

    So many variables to consider here, first it was during a period of vacation that TOR was released, this alone jumbles these numbers a little bit. Add to that the simple fact that population roll-off will happen regardless of the quality of any MMO. We all know a chunk of players will play to end-game and quit it always happens. Add on top of all of that, some serious issues the game has seen over last couple of weeks, which will push even more players away. I don't find this surprising at all.

     

     

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson


  • smh_alotsmh_alot Member Posts: 976
    Originally posted by Professor78


    Originally posted by smh_alot


    Originally posted by Professor78 Most other MMORPGS's are rising over the last couple of weeks if you take Xfire as a "sample" so your "holidays over" argument is kind of flawed..

    ? Which ones have shown a rise? You meant Xfire, right?

    LOTRO, AION, D&D, RIFT, WOW, STAR TREK, AOC, EVE........Sorry bore now, there will be more no doubt.

    Heh. Ok, let's get down to the nitty-gritty, shall we?

    Xfire player numbers:

    WoW: 1/3 19.6k, 1/10 19.2k, 1/17 19.2k players

    Aion: 1/3 980, 1/10 930, 1/17 805 players

    LotrO: 1/3 860, 1/10 867, 1/17 845 players

    Rift: 1/3 411, 1/10 400, 1/17 402 players




    I could go on and pick another few like AoC or EVE or such, but it won't make a difference, the same trendline in player numbers as the ones I mentioned. I did pick the same day of the week of each week btw, only seems fair to compare like that, but I could have picked another day as well without it making much of a difference in trend.

    So, I used Xfire like you did, and where you claimed to see a rise the past few weeks. My question, once again, where? So far not in the ones you mentioned.
    Originally posted by Bunks


    Originally posted by teakbois


    Originally posted by Bunks
    funny now that you mention it, WOW had a peak on Jan 15 like SWTOR only wow stayed constant (within 15%) even though SWTOR had a 55% drop off.

    you might want to go look at the chart again.

     

    Also WoW didnt have downtime, SWTOR did.  Weekday numbers are more or less useless, gotta check the weekend peaks.

    1/15

    70569 swtor

    1/19

    38669

    = .5479

    so yeah it dropped to 54% of its peak

     

    Those are player hours, not player numbers, player numbers were 11.1k at 1/15 and 9.5k at 1/15. Furthermore, you're comparing a weekly peak (Sunday weekend) with a valley (weekday.

    1/15 Sunday had 11.1k players compared to 1/7 Sunday that had 11k players

    1/19 Thursday had 9.5k players compared to 1/12 Thursday that had 10.4k players


    Sounds more like 10% dropoff in player numbers, not a 54%. Even more, there was no change from 1 Sunday to the next. Ofc situation will be different in the upcoming week, but you were comparing those 2 dates to support your claim, so I did too >.>
  • hikaru77hikaru77 Member UncommonPosts: 1,123

    OMG!! this people never give up?. they really want to see swtor fail, just lol. ok guys, lets say, swtor is doomed and 50% of the population just quit. Are you happy with that?. Haters gonna hate, good thing, is they are just wrong about swtor.

  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    Originally posted by Distopia

    Add to that the simple fact that population roll-off will happen regardless of the quality of any MMO. We all know a chunk of players will play to end-game and quit it always happens. 

     

     

    This is actually a relatively new phenomenon, first seen with Rift.  LOTRO was the last quality game released before Rift, and it had a sub increase after first month.   Its easy to forget we have seen a steady diet of crap (VG, WAR, AoC) that dropped fast due to the game having major issues.

  • dubyahitedubyahite Member UncommonPosts: 2,483
    All that either of those graphs measure is how much people play and concurrency. It doesn't measure subs at all.

    You can't take data that measures one thing and say it measures something else.

    OP, you claim this proves that they are losing players (which they probably are to some degree) but your graphs do not prove that or measure how many are leaving.

    This is twisting data to fit your own agenda. When you don't have the data to back up your point, you can't just grab whatever data is available and pretend it means what you want it too.

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  • teakboisteakbois Member Posts: 2,154

    [Mod Edit]

    I see her point to an extent, the 10 best MMORPGs of all time were probably all released 2005 or earlier (rough off the top of my head AO, EQ, AC, DAoC, FFXI, SWG, EvE, EQ2, WoW, LOTRO I guess is the exception) and the genre is going farther and farther away from what made those games great.

     

    I think SWTOR is fun with potential, but Im doubting if Bioware will harness it.

  • smh_alotsmh_alot Member Posts: 976

    Originally posted by teakbois

    Originally posted by hayes303

    [Mod Edit]

    I see her point to an extent, the 10 best MMORPGs of all time were probably all released 2005 or earlier (rough off the top of my head AO, EQ, AC, DAoC, FFXI, SWG, EvE, EQ2, WoW, LOTRO I guess is the exception) and the genre is going farther and farther away from what made those games great.

     

    I think SWTOR is fun with potential, but Im doubting if Bioware will harness it.

     

    The traditional themepark design is flawed and limited, just like the designs used in the first MMO's had their flaws and limitations. There are only so many things you can do with a pure traditional themepark design. So I doubt they'll be able to make much with a basically flawed and limited design but hey, who knows, I sure'd like to see them try.

     

    However, the foundations and design prototypes for the future I have to say I see in other MMO's, like GW2, TSW and AA. Also, Firefall seems to have some nifty ideas to take MMOFPS to the next step. I expect more from those MMO's when it comes to building further upon MMO mechanics and features.

  • alexhpy98721alexhpy98721 Member UncommonPosts: 264

    I can assure you many are playing much less some are quitting. It has to do with the tons of bugs like guild window not working, abilities not firing, some people can`t even enter instances,daily quests not updating and a ton of other bugs.

    I would have laster one more month but after 1.1 i decided i won`t support this anymore so i unsubbed today before i got billed. You can check their forums to see the exploits and how open world pvp went from "yes it`s booring but i can do it fast and not bother with it" to  spawncamping people in their base/exploting the system server wide/blob pvp and with their crappy engine you get arround 10-20 fps.

    Also, from the people on my friends list i notices less and less logging on... it is a domino efect, on my server i already saw people comming in general asking if the server is populated because their server lost most of it`s population... 

    My server was one of the 2 servers on the EU side to still have queue, it`s now at standard most of the time, no heavy, very heavy or full anymore, in just 30 days.

    Don`t get me wrong, i liked the leveling part, it felt like a single player game... but the rest is either badly designed(pvp - i know what i`m talking about i have a rank 61 toon) or completely bugged(pve - from bosses resetting to simply not allowing you to enter) so i see no reason to keep playing for now.

    If they add a lot more content and fix the bugs/redesign the (open world)pvp i will resub, but if they did not fix it from beta untill now, i doubt they will do it so fast... we`ll see how much the manage to do in the next few months. 

This discussion has been closed.