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analysts predict 75%-90% retention rate o_0
Guileplayer
Member Posts: 418
Currently Playing: SSFIV AE, SFxTekken, SWTOR, WoW. Waiting for: GW2, Resident Evil 6.
Comments
I lol'ed.
So the times is saying 200 mill huh....
And 75-90% retention...wow thats historic...lol
Mark my words, that analyst should get canned.
No way SWTOR will keep that kind of sway; and no way can any analyst truly make professional predictions, when the userbase is still in the *Ooo Shiney* state it's in now.
Challenge Accepted
I say 60% retention rate and it declines with each passing quarter. I also prediuct it going F2P with server merges by the end of the year if it atleast survives the Guild Wars 2 feight train.
Grim Dawn, the next great action rpg!
http://www.grimdawn.com/
What BS WOW didn't have that high a retention rate at it's peak.
John Riccitiello must be spinning his hometown PR machine to death right now.
Of course that guys been the CEO of so many companies he might know half the people who work there.
800 000 subscribers is about twice what I assumed before launch and still think it will get.
I don´t think a single game since Wow have had 75% retention rate and I doubt any other MMO will ever have.
When Wow hit the people buying it the first month already were into MMOs are hardcore Blizzard fans, that will not happen again even for Blizzard.
50% would still be great compared to most games.
As wild and varied as all the analyst predictions have been, we might as well call everyone that posts here analysts. Realy what is the difference?
There is just no way they can hold 75%, let alone 90%.
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Wait for it....
Stopped playing TOR about a week ago.
That said I hope its successfull just to shut those here on MMORPG.com up.
Edit: Whats funny is even if this game retains only 30% thats still 600k subs. Which woudl make it larger then any other westren MMO save for WoW and Runescape.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
I love massively and the staff there, don't get me wrong, but I feel like they do this too much. I don't really ever see this site printing that garbage.
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
EA going to all the analysts they're friendly with to override the report from the other day.
The GW2 'you are not my bro'-fist is gonna hurt a lot to SWTOR, to the point getting its playerbase to historic minimals.
lol, sto took over a year to go ftp, go troll somewhere else, swtor is the next wow till titan is out and cutting its teeth.
I don't see how something like this is even predictable.
Yes I remember when LOTRO went F2P, I dropped my WoW sub then and there because I knew that there was no way I could enjoy two games and once.
NO, wait I did neither of those.
http://www.facebook.com/questions/10150504120398860/?qa_ref=qd
Relavent.
I think its rather interesting that 1/3 of those who voted have yet to play but want to.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
It's not.
Analysts, much like Lawyers, and politicians should be taken out back and shot. They're about as useful as...well...useless!
I absolutely agree. The greatest MMO ever made wouldn't have a retention rate of more than 30% in the first month. And SWTOR is not the greatest MMO ever,
RIFT, WoW, LOTRO, EvE, Runescape GW to a lesser degree all retained/replaced the players that it lost.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
it would be hilarious though if this guy ends up being true.
Currently Playing: SSFIV AE, SFxTekken, SWTOR, WoW. Waiting for: GW2, Resident Evil 6.
What i think he is saying is 75% will subscribe for the first month. It seems like a pretty big stretch. But most people who buy MMOs simply do not play them much at all al. They are pretendplayers and in the case of Tor it probably has a much larger percent of pretend players than any MMO ever made as the game is not targetted at MMO veterans at all. It may take a pretend player longer than a month to realize they are bored and not playing.
But I would be shocked if more than 10% of the intial box sales are still playing afetr 3 months. The games endgame was not tested and is in terrible conditon and there is little to no replayability.
The game is sooo good, one of its biggest fans didn't even stay subbed past its first month, and here you're saying this game will retain 75% of its player base? Yeah...that makes sense.
You can do better then that...
Even WAR still had 300k Subs by month No.6.
http://massively.joystiq.com/2009/05/06/warhammer-holds-its-ground-with-300k-subs/
I think people are over reacting about the drop off tomorrow.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
One of its biggiest fans?
No not really personally I think its tied for WoW for my favorite MMO and with a few more months of polish it should easily over take it.
I just have other things going on in my life atm.
Also I predict 1 million subs which is only a 50% retention rating.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
Drop of tomorrow? I doubt it will be very big(it'll be a drop mind you but there are still people that didn't start playing until Christamas or just after). I suspect the next month will be more telling and the third the biggest. Third month is always when these games take their biggest hits. Saw it in all recent games from Warhammer up to Rift. MMO's are my hobby - I do not just play them.
In March if anything they'd get people back.
They said that they are adding a whole lotta crap in march, add that in with the next patch that includes (According to devs) the ablitity delay fix and multiple other fixes I don't see how a retention rate of about a million is so far fetched or bad honestly.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.