Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
Seems like the game has peaked on XFire - Part 2
This discussion has been closed.
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Comments
And even "breaking even" isn't what people are talking about here.
There is always the opportunity cost to consider. Let's say it cost $100 million over 5 years. Not only are you tieing up all those resources in workers and materials for 5 years - if EA had nothing other than invest the $100 million in some kind of safe 4% annual return... they would've made more than $20 million over that time.
Don't forget that SWG was dominating the MMO world from its release and until WoW released. Only EQ was higher, and not by that much.
Years and years of a good, steady crowd bringing in money to a game, that cost a fraction to develop and market, compared to SWTOR. It might just have been more profitable.
SWG had 350k prior to WoW, and EQ as the leader (if you discount Lineage) was at some 450k. The numbers were just different pre-WoW, and IMO you cannot call numbers so close to the lead and head and shoulders above all other games (in the west at least) for a failure.
1793 players today - and if EA manage a sub base of 350k for SWTOR I think they will be greatly relieved. Cut some costs and maybe they can manage to bump along until their agreement with LucasArts comes up for renewal.
Can't see it happening however.
With no compelling end game new single player games will continue to come out to offer the new content people crave; Skyrim, SW Kinnect, D3 - whatever. More cost effective as well.
SWTOR and WoW time played on XFire. All my data is taken from Saturdays
Sure a big chunk of both is D3.
What the hell does Xfire have to do with anything, real people don't even use it . Xfire stast amount to zero, zip, zilch.
Real valid point with no ulterior motive coming from someone with swg as his icon.......
Perhaps it doesn't prove anything with 100% accuracy, but I think it's fair to say it does display trends fairly well.
EDIT: Also, I can't be completely sure on this, but I use Xfire, and as far as I'm aware, I'm a real person.
0118 999 881 999 119 725... 3
In a market of maybe 10 MMO's tops, I'll raise eyebrows at the term 'dominating' for an MMO that was on position 3 at that time (EQ and FFXI both had 1.5-2 times the amount of subs that SWG had). Not that 200-300k subs for a year or 2 isn't good. But so is 2-2.5 million sales at launch.
As for retention, basically I think those were different times from now. The cold, hard truth of the matter is that people stuck longer in MMO's because there were was very little choice to switch to and new launches were far in between. Would people have stuck that long with an MMO 10-12 years ago if there were 30-100 MMO's to pick from with 10-20 of AAA quality? I have my doubts about it. Heck, I myself have changed from sticking to an MMO for years in the time of EQ to shorter periods of time, even if I think that a lot of MMO's currently are as good or better than the very first MMO's, and I doubt I'm the only one in that approach.
Not saying that that's the only reason that people are more prone to switch MMO's faster, but the availability of more choice and variety sure causes people to switch between their main MMO's faster and spend time trying and playing other MMO's.
That is why F2P has taken off so well, as people can play several MMOs at once and cut down the cost. In STO you get daily quests to get Dilithinium and then you can convert that to Cryptic Points and buy stuff from the store. LOTRO you end up getting points as you play. You just need to play eachMMO a bit at a time, and you need not spend much money on MMOs at all. If you stick to one MMO and want all the stuff straight away, without taking time, then F2P will cost more than a monthly fee
SWG had a strong pull, as if people did quit, they would return. SWGs strength was its end game, SWTORs strength is the levelling, so once you reach 50 there is not much motivation to return.
In June 2011, at the time for the closure announcement, SWG had 4 FULL servers, and the rest medium/light. At that same time, DCUO was still P2P, and had only been around 5 months, only had 4 servers, and all of them were light.
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
EQ had 450k and SWG had 350k. It is true, that if you include the eastern games (Lineage1+2), it was quite different, but the eastern games were also hard to measure, because they were not only subscription-based like the western gamse. Still, I am sure revenue-wise they dwarfed both EQ and SWG.
Anyway, SWG was pretty close to the market leader in the west, EQ.
As for people simply "stuck longer" is true. But mostly that was also because the games were simply better. I have personally not played an MMO since WoW some 4-5 years ago. And I played WoW for maybe 2 years, and only because of my PvP guild (which I was a leader of), which I loved and tried to continue after our glory days in UO.
WoW was softice, and each WoW clone since has made it easier and easier. Softice with softice on top? I don't know how you can even try to make a game easier than WoW and still call it a game. Part of a game's definition is challenge.
I believe that if the games had been as bad back then, people would simply not have played them. And that is also what we see now finally: People are fleeing from the WoW-clones and other easy-play games en-masse. They are simply not challenging enough and therefore become boring over time. And "over time" is a key word when we talk MMOs.
The "stuck longer" goes hand in hand with better games.
Edit:
As a last point I want to mention the change in demographics. The new target group of the MMO's has shifted towards casual players, often console players. These players play less and in shorter bursts, and it takes them longer to tire of a game, simply because they play like that. But they feel it soon enough, and at the same time, no hardcore players can endure the gameplay, because it is not meant to be played hardcore, and because of the low challenge rate, it grows stale immensely fast.
So the developers have put themselves between two chairs: MMOs by definition require a big time investment, but at the same time the devs have gone after a console segment, that is not willing to invest that time. And that ends up alienating both player segments.
What is left today, is an all-dominating WoW-clone genre, just made easier than original WoW, with a single dot of an ultra hardcore sandbox game, that will require spreadsheet talents to do well in, called EVE. There is nothing in between.
There was a huge debate back in the UO days. It was agreed upon, that around 10-15% of a player population would be PvPers. I would believe there is a decent percentage of hardcore PvE'ers as well, that want a real challenge. Together (and certainly overlapping), they form a considerable minority, for which there is no good game out at the moment, except for maybe EVE for a subsection of them. They are just sitting there and waiting or bumming around in the hailstorm of WoW-clones, having completely lost their favorite playstyle.
iirc SWG had more like 300k subs at its peak which quickly took a dive when EQ2 and WoW came out, and EQ and FFXI hovered around the 450-550k subs. Lineage ofc surpassed that with 2-3 million players but that was a different sub model. DAoC had around the 250k subs at its prime.
Of course people will stick longer when a game is good. But even more, when there's little choice, people will stick longer with an MMORPG, and on top of that, when someone first enters an MMORPG they tend to stick longer too than when they've been playing MMO's for several years already. WoW has already put an end to the myth that people are looking for something more challenging above everything, since WoW was a lot easier and more of a walk in the park than most of its predecessors.
The whole 'but the first MMO's were all so much better than everything that came afterwards' is imo a myth that MMO gamers cling to who aren't able to enjoy themselves in MMO gaming anymore.
I agree on the change of demographics - first batch of MMO gamers consisted for a large part out of students, curious RPG gamers and D&D nerds while later on the demography broadened to include a vast amount of regular joe's and jane's from other interest areas - I disagree on that the hardcore players weren't part. There've been enough hardcore gamers that played MMO's like WoW for 5-10k hours and more. I think that the 'first MMO attachment' shows quite strongly, people stuck longer with the MMO('s) in which they entered the MMO scene. When you're not jaded out yet or burnt out on certain MMO features, they can be fun enough to keep lingering around.
I added an edit to my post, if you are interested.
It is hard to argue against the success of WoW. They did bring in a new demographic. It was more accessible than anything else back there. The hardware requirements were ultra low (where SWG and later EQ2 were very demanding), the graphics and aestetics very nice and pleasing.
WoW also succeeded in providing instant fun in a completely different (and guided) way than other games, while in the beginning retaining at least some level of challenge.
It was perfect for the mainstream segment, but not for the existing, advanced MMO players, and it is also not for the new players, that are of the same nature and grow up to wanting more of a challenge.
In this you're wrong, because EQ lost about half of its playerbase when WoW came out, and a lot of those were MMO veterans.
I don't know whom you're referring with 'new players' but I don't really believe that in mindset and mentality those are suddenly different people from the ones that have been entering the MMO scene in the past 5-8 years. Doesn't make sense.
There are various motives that play a role, it'd be wrong to ignore some of them and just stereotype a whole MMO playerbase to 1 motive. Friends & family, first-time MMO players, MMO jadedness or burnout on certain MMO features, a change of playstyle to accomodate changes in real life and available time, there are many motives that all together play a role, some more dominant than others.
Ok, that was a misstatement. I didn't mean ALL the existing players were advanced. WoW was new and shiny and built upon the EQ formula. I have not myself played EQ, so I cannot say, why they preferred WoW so much to EQ.
As for your last points, yes, you are right on some level. You just cannot ignore the fact, that people play less and less, and much, much less than in the "old days". What is the reason for this?
1793 today - bleak outlook.
General discussion on the main forums was even slower yesterday - struggling to get past page 3 (so under 60 thread responses yesterday evening, say 20.00 GMT).
Regarding the above: I agree that you cannot easily categorise players. Nor do I think people are 'playing less' overall just spending less time on any given game. Partly because there are many more choices available - like saying people drive fewer Model T Fords! Lots of social games, co-op games, lots of mmos and so on. The tools to control things are better as well - UIs, mice etc. And more information is available.
If people have never played EQ1 well think of it as comparing a modern car today (WoW) with a model T Ford (EQ1). The gulf between the two was that great. (Not that EQ1 wasn't - and still is in its own way - a 'great' game.)
I'm not surprised about this.. I have been saying that this game would tank from the start... Its not fun being right all the time but developers never listen and have only themselves to blame..
Game will be dead in a year, EA dont do free to play (warhammer online LOL) so it will slowly just fade away like that game did..
You posted a bit too early - it is 2032 now. It is usually more on weekends
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
Well, i think i can see why SWG was closed in the end, regardless of how broken the game was, it would still have been a threat to SW;TOR.. i wonder how many disillusioned SW;TOR players would have ended up playing SWG instead?
If the trend continues, the game can be dead in 4-6 weeks.
That's a good question. SWG was my first MMO, and it still holds a warm fuzzy place in my heart. I plan on checking out "The Repopulation" as it seems to have taken the best ideas of legacy SWG (including a player crafting economy). That's the game on my radar at the moment.
BTW, they are also using the Hero engine...I am curious to see how well it works for their game.
The Diablo week ended. SWTOR, Aion and Tera between 1000 and 2000 players, give or take.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
Quoting didn't get the image. But did you notice that all four games jumped the last week in the charts?
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.