Kickstarter trending and statistics

burfo

If you're not familiar with Kicktraq, it's a site that tracks statistics for Kickstarter projects.  Here's the tracking info on the CU project.  Don't get too hung up on the trending metric (especially so early in the project), but the data is interesting nevertheless.

 

This snapshot image should update itself every so often...

 

And a graph from CanHeKickIt as well:

 

Total income per reward tier:

meddyck

I'd expect the vast majority of the larger donors will donate in the next few days if not today, so I'll be watching closely to see whether it can cross $1mil or even $1.5mil by the end of the week. If it's still under $1mil by week's end, it could be in trouble.

DeanMalinco

Agree, would feel much more confident to see it hit 1mil+ today or tomorrow.

Sornin

Beat me by 5 minutes, curses! I was writing my post as this came up, ha.

KappenWiz

Will be fun to watch that trending line. 8.5 million after first 90 minutes.

Sornin

Originally posted by Xobdnas

I'm curious, do KS projects usually benefit more from a few large backers or many small ones? I assume it's a burst of big bites in the beginning, then a bunch of small bites over the next month, followed by a bust during the last few days or people finally deciding to take the dive.

Well, I can say that some of the projects I have looked at get around 50% of their total funding in the first two or three days. This means that we should hope Camelot Unchained raises at least $1M by the end of this week.

Stiler

Originally posted by Xobdnas

I'm curious, do KS projects usually benefit more from a few large backers or many small ones? I assume it's a burst of big bites in the beginning, then a bunch of small bites over the next month, followed by a bust during the last few days or people finally deciding to take the dive.

 

I'd wager many small ones, m ainly because some people do "back out" o fthe projects, and I have seen some projects lose 5-10k backers and it can hurt them quit ea bit (especially with smaller goals, like <200k).

naezgul

My guess they hit 1M within 24 hous......lots of people interested actually have jobs now and need to get home.....

large base of daoc players 30+ yrs old

Sornin

Well, 5 hours in and here are some quick stats:

Backers: 2,508

Pledges: $435,408

Mean Pledge: $173.61

Backers / Hour: 501.6

Pledges / Hour: $87,081.60

I did not record the exact numbers, but the mean pledge has been declining over time, which is to be expected as the initial rush is likely to see some of the biggest pledges. A mere one or two hours ago it was at ~$180. I suspect over time it will drop to ~$150.

Sornin

We are now 6 hours in!

Backers: 2,691

Pledges: $467,030

Mean Pledge: $173.55

Backers / Hour: 448.5

Pledges / Hour: $77,838.33

As you can see, the mean pledge, the backers per hour, and the pledges per hour are trending downward, but this is to be expected. In the past hour there were 183 more backers and $31,622 in funds added.

skyexile

---

Originally posted by Sornin
Well, 5 hours in and here are some quick stats:Backers: 2,508Pledges: $435,408Mean Pledge: $173.61Backers / Hour: 501.6Pledges / Hour: $87,081.60I did not record the exact numbers, but the mean pledge has been declining over time, which is to be expected as the initial rush is likely to see some of the biggest pledges. A mere one or two hours ago it was at ~$180. I suspect over time it will drop to ~$150.

---

I can see it dropping to the avg kickstarter fund of about $60-80.

right now its mostly the really keen supporters of the game throwing their wallets at it, but soon the game will generate alittle more hype and then alot of the more casual interest players will throw in their $15-$50.

Sornin

7 hours in!

Backers: 2,821

Pledges: $486,067

Mean Pledge: $172.30

Backers / Hour: 403

Pledges / Hour: $69,438.14

gylnne

Originally posted by Sornin
Beat me by 5 minutes, curses! I was writing my post as this came up, ha.

lol

Foggye

Originally posted by Sornin
Beat me by 5 minutes, curses! I was writing my post as this came up, ha.

Apparently, there's no beating Burfo when it comes to spreadsheets and charts.  I know I won't bother :P

SoMuchMass

Originally posted by meddyck
I'd expect the vast majority of the larger donors will donate in the next few days if not today, so I'll be watching closely to see whether it can cross $1mil or even $1.5mil by the end of the week. If it's still under $1mil by week's end, it could be in trouble.

Not really true, let us look at other games that hit around $2 million dollars.

Planetary Annihilation - A Next Generation RTS - $2.2 million

• $300k in the first 48 hours

Homestuck Adventure Game - $2.2 million

• $750k in first 48 hours

Wasteland 2 - $2.9 million

• $865k in first 48 hours

Anything can happen but so far it looks like it is in great shape.

 

 

skyexile

shouldn't be a problem hitting 700k in 24 hours by the looks of it.

Wazluk

It is ossible to sticky this thread? (even if locked) mainly just to monitor/stalk progress

CExy

Interesting to see how it progresses, it would be cool if we could monitor any "responses" on new updates.

 

Caldrin

I expect to see it slow right down after the first few days..

I think they make the 2 million mark but they wont go over by loads..

Wazluk

Originally posted by Caldrin

I expect to see it slow right down after the first few days..

I think they make the 2 million mark but they wont go over by loads..

Yeah, as Meddyck mentioned somewhere on here, it should pick up some before KS ends also.  After more info gets put out by CSE and more word of mouth from friends.

botrytis

Only people who really are pledging are the people who are Rabid fans of  DaOC -After that it will level off.

 

Just because they get money, doesn't mean the game will be published. It is a simple demo not a full blown game and things change as more is learned.

 

I am just a wait and see.

MindTrigger

Originally posted by meddyck
I'd expect the vast majority of the larger donors will donate in the next few days if not today, so I'll be watching closely to see whether it can cross $1mil or even $1.5mil by the end of the week. If it's still under $1mil by week's end, it could be in trouble.

We've seen games get a ton of funding at the very end of the time limit too, as people rush in to be a part of it.  I'm talking in the last few days of funding.  

AmazingAvery

There is no way in hell Marc Jacobs is getting my money. EVER!

infuzor

Originally posted by AmazingAvery
There is no way in hell Marc Jacobs is getting my money. EVER!

take your chance. 

Hokibukisa

Large backers always make the biggest difference in other contribution based projects. Like open source stuff, a small fraction of contributors make up 70% of the contribution.

Oldskoo

Originally posted by Hokibukisa
Large backers always make the biggest difference in other contribution based projects. Like open source stuff, a small fraction of contributors make up 70% of the contribution.

Yes, that is correct. It's basically the 80/20 rule ( in this case 20% of contributors would be responsible for 80% of the funding). Those large backers will make or break the KS campaign. As was touched on in another thread, I wish there was a simple means for gamer guilds to easily have their own way to fund as a group.  Perhaps if they (guilds) could have their own "piggy bank" that measured their total contribution within the overall KS campaign that would work but I don't even know if something like that is possible and if it was, viable at this stage of the campaign. Either way, you are dead on about we need these big supporters and any way we can get word out to them we need to do.