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I simply base it upon (someone can correct me if I am totally wrong of course):
1. They chose a 30 day period which is the most successful by metrics.
2. The most money comes in initially, it slows and peaks once more near end at usually around 50% of the initial peak.
The first day peak typically only less than 10-15% total pledge. This was around $500,000 to $750,000. The last rush could very easily be $250k to $500k over a 2 to 3 day stretch. The slow periods inbetween still average around 70% of the total earnings. So if the peak is over already (which it clearly is) and the end peak hits average estimates then at least 1 million is projected to only make up 30% of total pledges. To me this seems to be an easy success unless something dramatic happens that blows them out of the average kickstarter model especially popular 30 day durations.
You stay sassy!
I think this comes down to educating yourself on how kickstarter works, how long it's been around, how many successful projects have spawned from it, how it allows indie companies to compete, etc.
Also might want to look into the entire PBS system which has been around for decades.
You stay sassy!
I think this comes down to educating yourself on how kickstarter works, how long it's been around, how many successful projects have spawned from it, how it allows indie companies to compete, etc.
Also might want to look into the entire PBS system which has been around for decades.
pbs is actually a 'public' entity, you can see their books if you dig . Plus, now that it's common knowledge, let's sit back and watch the success rate drop as hucksters enter the 'market'.Obviously? You mean hopefully surely? Currently they really aren't doing as we'll as many thought they would and its entirely possible CU fails to hit its target.
Expresso gave me a Hearthstone beta key.....I'm so happy
My current estimates put CU somewhere between 1.5 mil and 3.5 mil. The key is the lower tiers selling out. The lack of action on the $25 and $50 tiers are quite concerning. Remember the sooner they get the goal, the sooner they can start pushing for stretch goals. Ideally we don't want to just fund the game but reach as many stretch goals as possible so this game is even more awesome.
More than likely CU will get 1mil by sunday and hopefully 2 mil by the 21'st leaving the last week for all the stretch goals.
I healed Mistwraith and all I got was this stupid tee-shirt!
Actually CU is doing worse than Shroud so far. Shroud had about 40 % of the total amount (only 1 million) at first day. CU only about 28 % as they aim for 2 millions. Compared it to other projects of that size and CU is more heading towards 1.2 mill, maybe 1.5 if you are very optimistic.
But that's of course just a guess. I wish CU kickstarter all the best. Not because I like it (sorry, no PvE killed it for me and there is not enough real info, words alone don't do it for me) but because the CU fans are so enthusiastic and really want this game. I hope it works out for them. Good luck !
Yeah, when I look at these two graphs, I get nervous.
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/13861848/camelot-unchained/#chart-daily
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/portalarium/shroud-of-the-avatar-forsaken-virtues-0/#chart-daily
Camelot Unchained
Day 1 - $550,185 (Excellent first day)
Day 2 - $156,171
Day 3 - $82,082
Shroud of the Avatar
Day 1 - $410,861
Day 2 - $169,482
Day 3 - $101,802
I think the weekend will skew Camelot's situation in a better light though. Shroud came out on a Friday and so had a weekend for the first 3 days. This may have been a good idea for Camelot as well.
One other thing to note though is that Shroud had more than twice the number of backers in the first three days. Maybe Camelot needs to do something to attract more people to the lower tiers.
same tbh, but have to say, if they can't hit at least 1.5m in the first 2 weeks then the chances of them hitting 2m over a 4 week period is more than a little unlikely. Be interesting to see how it fares really, as it would indicate a far greater number of players are interested in solely PVP MMO's than i thought there were
I am cautiously optimistic, and I agree CU has a long way to go. One thing that does give me some reassurance is that there will be a lot of backers invested in this and a lot of pledges made in another few weeks, and if push comes to shove, and it is getting near the end, some may raise their pledges a ton just to see it happen.
Note: I did say "some" and "may" - I have no illusions this may not be the case, and do not count on this at all. I know many have pitched in the most they want to now, and some are not emotionally invested enough to care enough to raise their pledge if it looks like it will fail.
I healed Mistwraith and all I got was this stupid tee-shirt!
If all the 5000 or so current backers did that, we'd have over 250k added
I healed Mistwraith and all I got was this stupid tee-shirt!
I guess I will need to decide sooner rather then later if I want a $250 all digital tier.. keeping an eye.
Oh, you want it. You may not know it yet, but deep down, in your heart of hearts, you want it.
I guess I will need to decide sooner rather then later if I want a $250 all digital tier.. keeping an eye.Oh, you want it. You may not know it yet, but deep down, in your heart of hearts, you want it.
oh I want it.. but I have a baby on the way and just had to throw down 3k for a furnace so im trying to prioritize my spending.. That and convince my wife she would want to play with me.
From the Kickstarters I have watched, you see an initial flurry, then a slow and steady trickle followed by a smaller than the initial flurry towards the end.
You also see people pulling out of the higher tier pledges towards the end (probably people just posting the $500 pledge to show support but not intending to complete).
This may be an issue for CU as they have a higher than usual percentage of high pledges (2x shroud of the avatar, 2.5x elite, 2.5x star citizen.) so with its smaller more highly pledged backers, any pulling out will have a disproportionate effect.
Not wanting to rain on the parade, but I would rate it as touch and go.
No need for guessing on stats, there is already a site that gives you most of the stats you'd want for kickstarters.
Here is the one showing what CU needs to succeed - http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/13861848/camelot-unchained/#chart-mini
Compare the current trend with Star Citizen which raised around 2 mil:
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/cig/star-citizen/#chart-daily
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/13861848/camelot-unchained/#chart-daily
RefMinor is correct; we have already seen a couple $5,000 backers "back out," and that really hits the total hard given that many hours see the pledge total rise barely $1,000 now, sometimes less.
This Kickstarter campaign is still very much touch and go, and I would not rely on anything more than perhaps $500,000 in the last week, and even that may be optimistic. That means CU needs to just about double what it has now in the next 2.5 weeks, and most campaigns with a large initial burst do not tend to do that. It is goes from a torrent, to a flood, to a trickle, and back to a flood again.
The average pledge right now is $159, which is great, but the number of backers is ridiculously low. CSE needs to find a way to:
1. Reach out to potential backers
2. Convince them to pledge
CSE needs to get large sites interesting in providing some coverage, perhaps with exclusive interviews, updates, etc. These large sites love getting exclusives that drive hits and ad impressions to their sites. Promise them that, and they may give a link to the campaign, reaching tens of thousands.
I want to see the average pledge drop significantly to something more sustainable, like $100, and the number of backers rise substantially, to 1,000+ per day, chipping in $50 or so each.