While Pantheon is an interesting game (interesting enough to be the only game I crowdfunded ever) announcing it as the savior of the genre is taking things a bit too far.
It is highly unlikely that a single game would become the savior, it is of course possible that something even more commercial then Wow would get the publishing houses into funding huge MMO projects again but I am not so sure that is what we need either.
What we need is a few games that do their own things, release in acceptable choice and get a steady population around a million players. A single popular game would just restart the clonewars again and in either case I don't see Pantheon becoming the next Wow no matter, maybe the next EQ but that is it.
Lets not overhype the game, that just means many people who shouldn't play the game will buy it and ragequit after a few hours when they keep dying. As long as they just release it in an accepttable shape Pantheon will be a niche game, but a far larger niche then the FFA PvP niche for example and more then a few of us belongs to the niche group they are making the game for.
Support the game if you think it seems interesting but don't hype it, at least not yet. Over-hyping can turn gold to crap and have hurt more then a few MMOs (yeah, initially the sales get high but when loads of people who never should play the game buy it we just get a shitstorm and bad reputation).
If it sells itself as a callback to EQ it's risking everything on the premise EQers will show up. If it appeals to mainstream gamers, its odds are better, but still not good. Thigns just arne't good for new MMO's because there're so many out there! It's not dead! The OP says it's dead, but this is far, FAR from the truth! It's ALIVE. Therer'e more people playing MMO's now than ever, substantially more!
I agree with your post in general. Pantheon does need to stand out and it cannot do so as a mainstream game. Even the games that have 100s of millions are failing or struggling.
However, the mmo genre isn't doing nearly as well as you describe. There are only a handful of mmos doing well today just like there were a handful of mmos doing well 10 years ago. Particularly in the west, there has been a tragic lack of growth in the industry. In fact, the handful of mmos today are struggling to retain even the playerbase of mmos around the turn of the century. Considering the number of people with internet and gaming pcs is dramatically higher, the numbers we're seeing don't reflect well on the genre at all.
You really think there were as many MMORPG players in 1999 or 2000 as today? Millions are still playing WoW (and on private servers)--in 2015 5.5 million on official servers. Final Fantasy XIV has over a million subs--5 million have paid. Do you even realize the peak subscriptions in UO were 250k and in EQ 500k? Even if you added up AC and EQ and UO and AO and DAOC AT THEIR BEST, it'd barely reach 1.2 million subscribers/ Do you know how many MMORPGs there're right now? Multitiudes: I can't even begin to list them all! WoW alone has 5.5 million subs (not F2P) and you suggest MMORPGs in 2016 don't have as many players? Most of the old MMORPGs are still going. People still play EQ. You can still play Ultima ONline and Asheron's Call and Anarchy Online and even Daoc--all on official live servers. There might be a lot more MMORPGs with <50,000 subs--that's because there'er so many--many are F2P.
I recognize some of these players have moved on to other MMO's, like Minecraft servers and Second Life and Planetside 2 and other--of which many millions play. Some don't play MMO's at all now, preferring thigns like Fallout 4 and Skyrim.
You know just ONE player-run UO server has 400 players on it? You know players today aren't stuck with bigtime MMORPGs either. Tehre're a lot of smalltime things now. I just recently visisted eternal-lands.com. Ever heard of Daimonin or Ryzom or the hundreds of other invisible MMORPGs? Therre're hundreds of MUDs and browser MMORPGs and so on with 50+ playres on each. I know these're small numbres compared to bigger MMORPGs, but it adds up and it gives options for players.
EDIT: Worthy of noting is because F2P many gamers are not subbing at all. This means hte actual number of players in MMORPGs is much higher.
You really think there were as many MMORPG players in 1999 or 2000 as today? What're you smoking buddy? Millions are still playing WoW (and on private servers)--in 2015 5.5 million on official servers. Do you even realize the peak subscriptions in UO were 250k and in EQ 500k? Even if you added up AC and EQ and UO and AO and DAOC AT THEIR BEST, it'd barely reach 1.2 million subscribers. Do you know how many MMORPGs there're right now? Multitiudes: I can't even begin to list them all! WoW has 5.5 million and you suggest MMORPGs today can't sport sub numbers comparable to 2000? Do you realize most of the old MMORPGs are STILL ALIVE? People still play EQ. In fact,
I recognize some of these players have moved on to other MMO's, like Minecraft servers and Second Life and Planetside 2 and other--of which many millions play. Some don't play MMO's at all now, preferring thigns like Fallout 4 and Skyrim.
You know just ONE player-run UO server has 400 players on it?
Please. You know players today aren't stuck with bigtime MMORPGs either. Tehre're a lot of smalltime things now. I just recently visisted eternal-lands.com. Ever heard of Daimonin or Ryzom or the hundreds of other invisible MMORPGs? Can you understand I literally LAUGH when you say the MMORPG market is dying or struggling? It may not be growing rapidly and some of it may be smalltime or free, but it's alive!
Nah, there were probably around 3 mil players at the start of the year 2000, even though that number probably doubled at the end of it (mainly due to Lineage huge Korean launch, heck it still have over 3 millions P2P players even now according to NC soft). Of course those numbers could be discussed, anything from 2.5-5 millions could be accurate).
1.2M is too low though, there were far more MMOs out already: M59, The realm, Nexus, Underlight and so on. Nexus already had a million players in itself (source: Wikipedia) so just by adding it you get 2.2M.
MMOs are still larger today of course, probably 10 times as many players but the genre have been shrinking the last few years, even Wow who is the flagship have lost many players the last 5 years. In that sense is the market if not struggling so at least shrinking somewhat. I think a lot of the casuals have moved over to mobile platforms (Pokemon Go is probably larger in itself then all MMOs together). That doesn't make the genre dying but it will probably go in another direction the next 10 years then it have the last 10. Exactly what that direction is remains to be seen.
The games being developed to recapture niche markets are essentially going to have to capture their market from the existing MMORPG players will mean taking customers from Blizzard. That hasn't historically been an easy thing to do.
I don't think this is really the case. Plenty of first gen players still play mmos, but based on what I read, transience, and the way games like WoW spike and fall dramatically after each expansion, they aren't really loyal to those games. I don't believe they will have to work to "recapture" that audience.
Beyond that segment, I think many (perhaps even the majority) have moved on to other games. Overall subs of major MMOs have plummeted while MOBAs and other genres have skyrocketed. They've moved on. Not that they've written off mmos altogether, only that they are waiting for something more like the games that attracted them to mmorpgs to begin with.
Millions are still playing WoW (and on private servers)--in 2015 5.5 million on official servers. Final Fantasy XIV has over a million subs--5 million have paid.
WoW is probably closer to 4 now (at best) according to projections, and thats mostly Asia. Ya, it will spike again here in August, but how much and for how long?
Ok so FFXIV supposedly has around 1 million, and in the meantime WoW has lost roughly ~8 million since their 2012 peak.
Do you even realize the peak subscriptions in UO were 250k and in EQ 500k? Even if you added up AC and EQ and UO and AO and DAOC AT THEIR BEST, it'd barely reach 1.2 million subscribers/ Do you know how many MMORPGs there're right now? Multitiudes: I can't even begin to list them all! WoW alone has 5.5 million subs (not F2P) and you suggest MMORPGs in 2016 don't have as many players?
Again, I didn't compare 2001, I compared 10 years ago. I see the changes and they're awful, hence the reason there are fewer and fewer big studios developing them - and no I don't count those horrible f2p cash shop ports from the east.
What players *think* they want and what they say they want and what they actually want are often different things.
It will be interesting to see many mmorpg vets get exactly what they were saying in forums for years with Pantheon and then realize it's not what they really want anymore.
It's gonna be epic heh
I think even the doubters will end up enjoying Pantheon much to their dismay.
Oh I am sure that will happen too, but IMO to a much lesser extent.
People forget that not having as much free time and having more adult responsibility makes a world of difference in what game you like
EQ1 vanilla required an enormous time investment, I am sure Pantheon will be similar, and that right there will ultimately be the wakeup call for many vets - as in realizing how faster more convinient gameplay is more suitable to their current lifestyle which us very different from 16 years ago.
I will be playing Pantheon for sure - heck I have 2 maxed out characters in P99
I think this is somewhat a selfish statement.
1) It's assuming Vets were 16 ( teenagers ) and now 36 ( adults ).
2) It's assuming Vets don't have time now ?
3) It's assuming only vets will like this game.
4) It's assuming younger players will not.
Just because life changes for one doesn't account for all, in fact not at all !
Comments
It is highly unlikely that a single game would become the savior, it is of course possible that something even more commercial then Wow would get the publishing houses into funding huge MMO projects again but I am not so sure that is what we need either.
What we need is a few games that do their own things, release in acceptable choice and get a steady population around a million players. A single popular game would just restart the clonewars again and in either case I don't see Pantheon becoming the next Wow no matter, maybe the next EQ but that is it.
Lets not overhype the game, that just means many people who shouldn't play the game will buy it and ragequit after a few hours when they keep dying. As long as they just release it in an accepttable shape Pantheon will be a niche game, but a far larger niche then the FFA PvP niche for example and more then a few of us belongs to the niche group they are making the game for.
Support the game if you think it seems interesting but don't hype it, at least not yet. Over-hyping can turn gold to crap and have hurt more then a few MMOs (yeah, initially the sales get high but when loads of people who never should play the game buy it we just get a shitstorm and bad reputation).
I recognize some of these players have moved on to other MMO's, like Minecraft servers and Second Life and Planetside 2 and other--of which many millions play. Some don't play MMO's at all now, preferring thigns like Fallout 4 and Skyrim.
You know just ONE player-run UO server has 400 players on it? You know players today aren't stuck with bigtime MMORPGs either. Tehre're a lot of smalltime things now. I just recently visisted eternal-lands.com. Ever heard of Daimonin or Ryzom or the hundreds of other invisible MMORPGs? Therre're hundreds of MUDs and browser MMORPGs and so on with 50+ playres on each. I know these're small numbres compared to bigger MMORPGs, but it adds up and it gives options for players.
EDIT: Worthy of noting is because F2P many gamers are not subbing at all. This means hte actual number of players in MMORPGs is much higher.
1.2M is too low though, there were far more MMOs out already: M59, The realm, Nexus, Underlight and so on. Nexus already had a million players in itself (source: Wikipedia) so just by adding it you get 2.2M.
MMOs are still larger today of course, probably 10 times as many players but the genre have been shrinking the last few years, even Wow who is the flagship have lost many players the last 5 years. In that sense is the market if not struggling so at least shrinking somewhat. I think a lot of the casuals have moved over to mobile platforms (Pokemon Go is probably larger in itself then all MMOs together). That doesn't make the genre dying but it will probably go in another direction the next 10 years then it have the last 10. Exactly what that direction is remains to be seen.
Beyond that segment, I think many (perhaps even the majority) have moved on to other games. Overall subs of major MMOs have plummeted while MOBAs and other genres have skyrocketed. They've moved on. Not that they've written off mmos altogether, only that they are waiting for something more like the games that attracted them to mmorpgs to begin with.
Ok so FFXIV supposedly has around 1 million, and in the meantime WoW has lost roughly ~8 million since their 2012 peak.
Again, I didn't compare 2001, I compared 10 years ago. I see the changes and they're awful, hence the reason there are fewer and fewer big studios developing them - and no I don't count those horrible f2p cash shop ports from the east.
I think this is somewhat a selfish statement.
1) It's assuming Vets were 16 ( teenagers ) and now 36 ( adults ).
2) It's assuming Vets don't have time now ?
3) It's assuming only vets will like this game.
4) It's assuming younger players will not.
Just because life changes for one doesn't account for all, in fact not at all !
"classification of games into MMOs is not by rational reasoning" - nariusseldon
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