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The Fall of WoW?
Mistick
Member Posts: 100
World of Warcraft is a great polished game no doubt there, but the game is way too gear dependant in design. Too understand this all you simply need to do is look at WoWs first expansion Burning Crusades. The game was always designed to progress in levels, and gear the harder players worked to achieve these goals. When BC launched however it took all of the work to obtain the gear and trashed it by just simple uncommon items. That just blew me away. Now any expansion that increases in levels the gears stats will increase is simple logic, but the gap between 56 and outlands 58 pieces makes the prior dungeons that made Wows’ original story line almost obsolete. Really how many people still do Strat, Scholo, DM, or even Blackrock Spire anymore? Don’t even get me started on pre BC raid areas either. The simple point is it doesn’t make sense to do this out dated under geared dungeons, which in my opinion was a huge mistake by Blizzard.
Blizzard decided to add arena to the PvP aspect of the game. Reminds me of Guild Wars to tell you the truth. Here was another huge mistake by Blizzard, because PvP in WoW is too much dependant on gear than skill. To obtain the better gear for PvP you need to earn points in arena or honor points in BGs which makes sense, but to use some of the arena gear you need to now obtain a personal score to equip this gear. The arena gear up until patch 2.3 made battle grounds almost pointless do to resilience which until this patch had very little gear which to buy with honor that had enough resilience to be competitive. Besides this ongoing PvP grind WoW’s version of PvP (like so many class based games) is like a game of rock, paper, scissors. To beat one class you need to be another class, but if your that class it leaves you weak against this other class. To me this is not the true essence of PvP, but if Blizzard tries to balance out the equation it affects the PvE aspect of the design. Blizzard has even has tried to create a better world PvP environment in BC zones, and the Plaquelands, and even Silithus with very little success.
Raiding in WoW is one of the worst experience of raiding in all my years of gamming. Now I wasn’t against the idea that they where instance based, or even had a weekly timer, but to raid the same raid dungeon for four weeks or more to progress to another raid dungeon, because you absolutely need the gear to progress is a sad excuse of the word raid. Asking any old school raider what game had the better raid design, and hands down you will always here EQ, but why? Simple EQ raid was just based on level requirement, and not so much gear. Yes if you had better gear it made the dungeon easier, but you didn’t need 80% of a prior raid dungeon gear to go to another dungeon to be successful. To restrict their players to this force feed content is another downfall in design. Though Blizzard has improved this by increasing drops on mobs, and reducing raid size. The raid is too much linear to enjoy all the available content with any hopes for a casual player to experience before another expansion is released.
As you can see WoW is, and most likely will always be base on a design around itemization. This is why sooner than later the combined games will surpass their predecessor. Now I know what your thinking, but how is this done? It is no easy task I can assure you, but Turbines Lord of the Rings online has already started the chiseling process. With a WoW feeling, but with improved graphics, free upgraded content, and a more laid back but exciting dungeon experience this game is leaving a mark. Though this game isn’t considered to be a WoW killer, Turbine has put a foot in the door with this title.
Newer games that expected by many to turn the tides of sales are Stargate worlds, Star Trek online, Marvel Universe, Warhammer online, Darkfall, Aion, and Age of Conan. The thing to remember with upcoming titles is one game isn’t for everyone, but they don’t have to be. To learn from WoW is the best resource companies have. Low system requirements is always a good thing. This opens up the available market in which customers can play your product. Lore is the backbone that supports how interested players are with the game, simple hack and slash isn’t a good receipt anymore for sales. Offering both PvP and Pve can benefit the subscriptions, but can also hurt it if not done correctly. Character customization is key these days to make players feel that their characters are unique somehow. Keeping content achievable for all players is also a solid recommendation. Balancing items with mechanics so one is not so overpowered is another thing to remember in certain aspects of design.
These are very important issues to remember with these upcoming titles. In my honest opinion I don’t see one game knocking off WoW, but the many different approaches in which games are to be release that does WoW in. I am aware of Blizzards new expansion for World of Warcraft, however unless Blizzard learns from the mistakes they will not do as well as BC. The problem is Blizzard is too blinded by WoWs success to see the upcoming games as a threat, because one company won’t do it, but many games at once will blind side them. Game companies take notes from their competitors, and Blizzards over zealous approach to gear will be their doom. To tell SOE six years ago that Blizzard will have one of the most successful MMOs to date many would probable laugh from that company. If the same irony applies to say that these upcoming games won’t affect Blizzards profits in the future is delusional.
Comments
"Now World of Warcraft was launched in 2004, and predicted to last ten years by Blizzard."
I stopped reading here. You do know that EQ is still up and running, right? Actually, some text-based MUDs are still up and running 20+ years later. WoW will last for well over a decade, and will probably remain top dog for over a decade. Even if it loses 90% of it's subs, it will still be top dog.
Otherwise, nice long rant.
I love when posters on this forum advise WoW to "learn from it's mistakes".
Guess what, they aren't making any...which is why their population continues to grow, they continue to sell more boxes than any other MMO, and they're no where approaching their "fall".
I don't like the game, it's not for me, but outlining all the reasons WoW will fail because it's not appealing to you is both short sighted and self centered on a ridiculous level.
...
WoW statistically cannot fall.
Even if they lose 3/4ths of their subs....they are still a market leader. Let that sink in......to be able to lose 75% of everything you have and STILL be considered the best seller. One would have to be quite the fool to think it will lose 75%....only one game I know of has seen that kind of loss...and even that is speculative. SWG. Trust me on this....that kind of loss is far more severe to them than it ever would be to WoW...and they aren't dead YET. Furthermore, it took a complete destruction of the game to cause even THAT loss.
Fact is, MMO players tend to stick to games they have been invested in for a year or more. Most MMO's have a guarantee of 50% retention as long as they keep the core game the same. If they lost 95% they would STILL have 500K subs man....which would STILL leave them with what is considered a great number. Blizzard would have to drop over 99% of their subs.....somewhere in the area of 99.99% to even come close to dying.
Do you have any ideal how terribly impossible that is? To pull that...they would have to literally BAN all those people. No game has ever lost that kind of percentage. You mention that no one game will kill it....that MANY will eat it away. There is room for over 100 BLOCKBUSTER MMO titles in those subs...and STILL room for WoW to make enough to be rich as hell.
Nothing is killing this game....they will have to kill it themselves.
Decent post, better than 90% of this same topic posts that get posted 20 times a week on this site.
You had me until you referenced LOTRO as chiseling away at WoW. LOTRO didn't even scratch WoW let alone dent it. The bottom line is that LOTRO is a WoW clone which unfortunately is inferior to WoW despite being released several years after WoW (sad). It seems clear that WAR has the best chance of challenging WoW. The more I "hear" out of AoC beta, is that the game is still not close to being ready.
It is important to remember I am not saying that WoW will go away, just simply over the next two years with some of the reviews and titles Blizard could be looking at large scale loss of subcribtions. The game has it's flaws, and I do play the game. I respect what Blizzard has brought, but how they have managed to make the game so gear based is enough to make even some of the hardcore players puke. For that reason alone the game's design is one directional, and untill Blizzard realizes this other upcoming games will exploit this as a weakness and "try" to design around this flaw to become successful.
I agree the upcoming MMO's will take away a portion of the WoW subs but no where near where WoW would be in danger. With WotLK expected to be released sometime they will just gain more back imo. WoW would need to self destruct or another WoW clone that actually does everything WoW does but better (sorta like fighting fire with fire) to be anywhere near its "fall"
um...sorry, but using statements like "The Fall of WoW", "will spell defeat for WoW", etc. are saying exactly that.
And additionally, all this post is really saying is "I don't like the direction WoW is taking...therefore it's doomed...because it will lose my 15 dollars".
Now, you can dress it up as a big industry analysis or anything else you want, but that's really all that it is.
um...sorry, but using statements like "The Fall of WoW", "will spell defeat for WoW", etc. are saying exactly that.
And additionally, all this post is really saying is "I don't like the direction WoW is taking...therefore it's doomed...because it will lose my 15 dollars".
Now, you can dress it up as a big industry analysis or anything else you want, but that's really all that it is.
Well technically speaking not too many games lose their ip's now do they? Metaphorically speaking however a large turn of subcribtions is a decrease in productivity that results in slower release of content and expansions.
20+ years ago there was no internet:P
Hope to build full AMD system RYZEN/VEGA/AM4!!!
MB:Asus V De Luxe z77
CPU:Intell Icore7 3770k
GPU: AMD Fury X(waiting for BIG VEGA 10 or 11 HBM2?(bit unclear now))
MEMORY:Corsair PLAT.DDR3 1866MHZ 16GB
PSU:Corsair AX1200i
OS:Windows 10 64bit
20+ years ago there was no internet:P
That's why they were played on dial up BBS's. I know this, because I played them.
if theres a challenger to WOW -- its not in the 2008 lineup for new games
EQ2 fan sites
o gee, another thread predicting WoW's failure. Im not even a WoW player, and never will be, but why are people so ignorant? The largest online game in history, WoW, and people want to try and predict that it will somehow lose all 9 million subs. Its not going to happen. WoW will be around for a long time, and will continue to be the highest subb'd mmo in the market. AoC, WAR, all of these games will pull nice Sub's, but they will not topple WoW. WoW is in the top 5 best selling pc games every single week, still, to this day. That says alot. It isnt going to be going anywhere, and to say it is, shows your ignorance to real world common sense. Games much smaller than WoW are still going, and will continue to be around as well for the next several years. If EQ is still here after so many years, what makes you think WoW is going to not be here?
20+ years ago there was no internet:P
Um what?
The internet goes back to at least the 1960's but was used mainly by scientist types at that time.
In the mid 1980's when I got online I would have to say GTE Telenet (in the US) was pretty much the internet. It was how you connected to the online services of the time and there was tons of places hooked to it (colleges... nasa as examples..).
You could play the mainframe version of zork "online" 20+ years ago... muds and there was a graphical mutli player game called "habitat" that was at least in beta testing on a service called quantum link in 1986 (yes I was a tester) and QLink later became... AOL.. it was a commodore only service in the 80's.
Anyway.. forget about EQ...
UO is still up and running and has never had server mergers. I dunno if M59 or NWN is still around at all... as they predated UO.
EQ's 10th year is this March tho... so the decade mark for a "successful" game isn't really... unrealistic.
WoW's market/developent strategy was designed for 100 thousand players. They expected to play second string to a EQ
I find it amazing that by 2020 first world countries will be competing to get immigrants.
Sorry to burst yer bubble, and i can't believe i am making a "supportive WoW post " but, WoW will live on for a very long time as king of MMOs for one reason alone, It plays on dogturd computers and looks decent in the process.
Are the Graphics comparable to say (ugh another positive plug to a game i do not really like) Vanguard ?
No.
But thast the point, it supports low end systems and allows those with low end systems to enjoy a very well produced game.
Not only that it introduces never before played MMO players to the MMO genre.
Hate WoW all you want but it has the perfect mix for new gamers to get into.
20+ years ago there was no internet:P
That's why they were played on dial up BBS's. I know this, because I played them.
never heared of that i was still playing nintendo games or on my commondore and give my disk to friend who then crush my records and then gave it back and i try crush his records:P.Few years later came internet but, early 90's i played only chess on net around 91 i think i started playing around that year.
If im correct chess was one of first global games you could play online.
Hope to build full AMD system RYZEN/VEGA/AM4!!!
MB:Asus V De Luxe z77
CPU:Intell Icore7 3770k
GPU: AMD Fury X(waiting for BIG VEGA 10 or 11 HBM2?(bit unclear now))
MEMORY:Corsair PLAT.DDR3 1866MHZ 16GB
PSU:Corsair AX1200i
OS:Windows 10 64bit
The early days of the internet as we now know it was non commercial and was basically a way for scientific and government based organisations to keep in contact and share data,like a big network. So yeah it does go back to the late 60s,it wasnt commercialised until the technology was at the point we could have it in our homes (not having to have gigantic mainframe computers and such) ,and in the early nineties ISPs sprang up.
In no way is Wow in danger of "falling" as u put it. The only thing its facing is possible competition that will take away a portion of its subscribers when said games like warhammer and AoC are released. That being said WoW will have to probably step up its game a bit and work on looking past thier usual endgame ideas that leave players very little to do aside from raid and arena. Alot is realy dependent on how these new games do when thier released but i assure if WoW sees that elements are working for other games they will in thier own way try and adapt it to WoW. So is WoW in danger of "falling" not at all. But to make sure it continues to grow and sustain the large numbers it now has it will have to work to bring the War back in Warcraft so to speak, that its currently lacking with its rehashed raid instances and lacking / unmeaningfull pvp.
LOL ... LOTR is released and what happened? WOW gained subscriptions and passed 10M players.
Why do you think that some of the new games will do what LOTR failed to do?
Nothing last for ever but it is pretty reasonable to assume that WOW would still be a player at the 10 year mark (only 6 years from now), particularly if Blizzard keep updating it. Just look at how many copies BC sold.
I play WoW, love it, but i think WoW really might fall. Im not saying for sure, but there might be games like Age of Conan, Aion, and guild wars 2 that might be a threat to them.
I also realize that may people will disagree but this is my "opinion"
i agree. unless they put out new stuff for people to do. i left wow because it was becoming boring and repetitive doin pvp over and over again.
Wow has many many millions from you already. I am sure they will still maintain a strong base. They have been very smart with the success formula up until now.
I never got into Wow for it being to safe and cartoony, but I don't deny it's success, and good overall management.
SHOHADAKU
Well I read through all the posts and one thing no one seemed to mention and is often over looked.
Yes, you will have War, AoC and other games coming out this year, yes WoW will lose subscriptions... at first.
How many times do people jump ship on a game to try out the newest thing then find out its not what they were hoping it would be and decide to go back to their previous game. Or you also have the types that will play more then 1 MMO at a time.
We all know WoW will eventually start to die out, every game does, but what people need to realise is it will not happen over night and because of that WoW will easily hit its 10 year mark.
Out of every 100 men, 10 should not be there,
80 are nothing but targets, 9 are the real fighters.
Ah, but one, ONE of them is a warrior,
and he will bring the others home.
-Heraclitus 500BC
LOL ... LOTR is released and what happened? WOW gained subscriptions and passed 10M players.
Why do you think that some of the new games will do what LOTR failed to do?
Nothing last for ever but it is pretty reasonable to assume that WOW would still be a player at the 10 year mark (only 6 years from now), particularly if Blizzard keep updating it. Just look at how many copies BC sold.
Did u actualy read the post. I claimed Wow WOULD NOT fall. And ur right LOTR is a perfect example for this situation in that it was sean as competition. When LOTR came out WoW undoubtably had players buy the game and try it out ( i know i did) some of wich stayed and other who came back . In the same respect there were players waiting to play LOTR who played it and didnt enjoy it so they joined Wow for the very first time. Like i said in the previous post it all depends on how the releases go for these upcoming games, if thier great than WoW could lose subs ( not enough to kill it by any means) and if they fail WoW could get even bigger than it is now. In the end though alot of pple are being drawn to these new releases bc 1. thier new , and more importantly 2. WoW hasent offerd anything realy new (aside from raid instances) to keep some of its current player base busy with.
You know what will be the downfall of WOW most likely, it will be another game released by Blizzard. This may shock some people but a lot of people playing WOW don't ever know what War,Aoc,Aion are and don't really care. They are happy doing what they are doing and they wouldn't spend any time looking at forums like here, in fact a lot of them don't even look at WOW's own forums.
I will be checking out some of these games like others from WOW will but they don't want to be as good as WOW they want to be better. If they are only on a par with WOW or similar to WOW in gameplay they will fail dismally.