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Bye bye P2P
Lobotomist
Member EpicPosts: 5,981
It seems that the days of P2P subscription based MMOs is comming to its end.
On horison looms a MMO giant Guild Wars 2 , easily the most anticipated MMO ( yes even more than SWTOR according to mmorpg.com) - a mmo with no subscription costs whatsoever.
DDO allready showed everyone older and less sucesfull P2P MMO can be reborn to sucess as F2P.
And now News that LOTRO is switching from P2P to F2P model is probably the last nail in the P2P buisness model coffin.
LOTRO is one of 5 most played western MMOs. Its certanly profitable. But based on its experience Turbine knows it can be even more profitable as F2P. Its clear evidence.
Sony with DC Heroes is following, APB, Black Prophecy...
We all know WAR, POTBS, Vanguard ... would surely benefit. And are probably first ones to follow.
And there are rumors brewing WOW is planning the switch too.
Will SWTOR be the last P2P MMO ? And how will that reflect on its popularity, and retention ?
I guess time will tell.
Comments
Excellent points, and congrats for that. I was fully expecting another "the sky is falling" post on the topic. Personally, I think the F2P model is going to take over, especially as the MMO player base gets older and just doesn't have the time to focus that they used to. Paying a little for something convenient is much more appealing to me, with a job and family, then trying to find the hours to grind for the same thing. DDO's item shop is excellent, and I'm sure LOTRO's will be fine as well.
LOTRO F2P? Groovy - I will have to go back to it.
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Well, all I can say is that I hope you are wrong...but at least if you are right I can look forward to all my time being free for other hobbies again....as I won't play F2P games.
personally as a sub hopper, I welcome the change lol. but you know in all seriousness this could revitalize the market and restore some credibility to some of the aging games who are having sub problems but still offer a great game play experience. It could even give games like Vangaurd what they need to succeed. For once I actually look forward to what's coming.
What some don't realise is that you will pay to have fun in one way or the other. I'll rather do it in a game that is not influenced from outside but have strict rules for everyone without exception.
Is a game, don't want to turn it in some money problems, he payed a lot so I'll have to pay more to beat him, should I buy this mount, should I spent 10 bucks for that potion. I mean is a game ffs. I really doubt is the end of it.
It's not the complete "death" of the P2P model. It's a new alternative that is starting to appear. Rather than being entirely F2P or entirely P2P, the Hybrid model has appeared. Turbine took the pros of the P2Ps, the pros of the F2P and you got this model. This is where both Casuals and Hardcore can play, without actually having to ask reducing the grind and such.
One thing I noticed is that I've rarely seen players asking to reduce the grind in F2Ps. It's mainly a P2P issue and it comes with the fact that Casuals don't want to pay 15$ when they can only play so little of the game given their tight schedule. With this model, Casuals can buy a Zone in which they can play for as long as they need to. They are not rushed by the price of their monthly sub, they can take their time. It's a very positive move. Meanwhile, Hardcore can enjoy the same game they've been playing so far without any dumbing down of the content.
I agree it seems things are going more and more towards the F2P route taking over, or at least being on equal footing with P2P. IMO, this is a great thing, so long as some of the bigger companies keep putting out games that are AT LEAST as well done as they have been in the past (preferrably even better, cause theres been some bad releases the past few years).
If these bigger companies continue putting out good quality products under the F2P model and keep the F2P model somewhat similar to DDOs model (where its not Pay 2 Win), it will help eliminate alot of peoples hate for the model and the constant untrue stereotypes of F2P being nothing but shitty quality, pointless, Pay 2 Win games. This could also open up lots of new ideas for the way F2P models work and we may see thinsg which are even better than DDOs model.
I find F2P model to be, in many cases, the best way to go because it gives everyone a chance to try the game thoroughly, rathe rthan a limited demo, without having to spend a dime and then if they feel it is a game they like an dthey find it worth supporting then they can spend as they please, wether it be more or less than a P2P sub. Theres been F2P games that IMO just plain sucked, and I spent nothing on them, while others have actually been quite well done and offer a lot of great gameplay, and some of those ive spent hundreds and in a few cases thousands in support of them.
I think it's a great way to give some developers a nice little wake up call regarding the quality of their games, because rathe rthan people simply accepting the games as they are and paying the somewhat small subscription fee, they will be able to directly see how many people find the game enjoyable by how much theyre actually willing to spend on the game. If nobody is spending in their cash shop,. its a good sign to them that people don't find the game worth paying for and they need to do something to improve the game.
I'd rather pay monthly to have the same share as everyone else and you know what I'm talking about.
I don't think the sub model will go away. I think we'll see more cash shops in monthly fee games and more f2p/sub hybrids like DDO and LOTRO. If a company can have people paying a monthly fee AND pissing away money in a cash shop, they're going to use that model. WoW already proved people will do it, and STO as well to a degree.
IMO I think that will depend a lot on things like the success of Guild Wars 2 as Buy 2 Play model, with no sub. Sure, GW1 was a bit more of a niche game (not so much in numbers, but just game type) that appealed to certain types of people rather than being a standard MMORPG, but with GW2 going more MMORPG style and adding in so many new things and still keeping the B2P model it could also show that you don't need either a subscription or a game impacting cash shop to bring in lots of profit and have lots of players.
If GW2 turns out to be as, or more succesful than most other recent an dupcoming releases, it could actually start turning thing sthe opposite direction, away from P2P + Cash shop since Arenanet will have proved for the 2nd time that a good game can bring in plenty of profit without having to charge subs for their product, or have a game breaking cash shop. They pretty much rely on box sales for their main income, so rathe rthan needing to use the typical "carrot on a stick" method to keep you grinding away and paying your sub for repetetive content they actually focus on making a game with things to do that are actually fun, rather than required to advance your character.
I agree that P2P is no longer the mainstay.
All games tend to exploit their customers and base their payment model on that exploitation.
It used to be that games had long, slow leveling curves and good loot took a long time to attain. In that type of game, charging people by the month made sense because a customer will have to play for years to max out and really gear up.
Now games have shorter leveling curves and loot is easier to get. The player may not be there that long. But what they want while they are there is easy, fast, good stuff, right now. So give them an item shop and let them spend away.
The payment model is changing to adapt to modern games. Personally, I hate it, but what can be done?
EQ1, EQ2, SWG, SWTOR, GW, GW2 CoH, CoV, FFXI, WoW, CO, War,TSW and a slew of free trials and beta tests
What can be done? simple refuse to pay for it by paying for this crap its telling game companies it is accepted and they will continue doing it.
Great original post.
I think things are moving toward an initially free model of online games.
For me as an avid game jumper, the buisness model would not matter at all if the game was refreshing,original and fun enough.
The fact remains for me personally that at the moment there is not one single mmo out that I would invest my time in (won't even go near cash investment)
Anything I play is due to bordem and I have little motivation to actually excel.
The truth (for me) remains : -
I will pay to play (rather large sums actually) if you make something that isn't a huge steaming pile of time wasting bullshit.
Pay to Play isn't nowhere near dying. All these low rent games going free to play means those developers with games worthy of a subscription will draw from the pool of people who refuse to be nickel and dimed, while all the free to plays will struggle to grab a small chunk of the free to play kiddies, cash shop whores, and "I'm a casual player so I shouldn't have to play the game to get my stuff, I want it NOW" people. Every new ftp game that comes out spreads those customers even further. Too many products and not enough people to play them all will be the downfall of free to play games.
There's a reason the standard monthly sub came to be. Now you all have fun living in the past of AOL and Compuserve and the rest of us will stay here in the present, and move into the future, without you.
-Letting Derek Smart work on your game is like letting Osama bin Laden work in the White House. Something will burn.-
-And on the 8th day, man created God.-
Your gonna be waiting along time like the rest of us I fear sadly.The mmog genre now is shoved full of tons of games and tbh I think its saturated the market so much most of the mmorgers are burned out of them and moving on to other things.The cash shop model won't work either imo long term.I think you will see tons more go under then it will go back to a smaller number of games in the genre atleast we can hope
well i can see the payment model changing, but not the quality improving.
instead of a Anet quality stantard (good price and good product) i can see cryptic method (bad quality, horrendous product), and know as an excuse "the consumer dont wanna pay anymore for our product, lets make it crappy then, /angrymode".
=(
now: GW2 (11 80s).
Dark Souls 2.
future: Mount&Blade 2 BannerLord.
"Bro, do your even fractal?"
Recommends: Guild Wars 2, Dark Souls, Mount&Blade: Warband, Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning.
Not to mention before if you buy a crappy play to pay game you may be in it the cost of the game and then the 14.00 a month fee cash shop models where ppl spend hundreds if not thousands of dollars what happens when they go belly up like alot of them will?
PvP-centric MMOs will still go with the P2P-model, as the F2P-model creates heavy imbalance in PvP.
EvE and Darkfall for example will never go F2P... well... maybe, but that's the nail in the coffin then I guess ^^
GW2 sounds like it'll be cool, but there is no way P2P is going away. You seriously think that game will have any impact on WoW subscribers? No, they'll still pay the same amount (possibly more if Blizzard can bleed it out of them). We live in a capitalistic society, and people will always try to maximize profits. P2P will definitely still have a place, and it might get even more ridiculous in time. Look at phone plans and the move ATT just made with their data plans. Also, other games go F2P because they suck and have no subscribers, so to maximize profit they'll make it free to play, cut expenditures, and increase advertising or make a cash shop (aka it's not "free" to play if you wanna be any good). Games that start out with a monthly fee then go F2P always suck, it's a fact.
APB is not free to play.
Dude, Lobotomist, I'm sorry but... you really need to learn how to spell. DDAAAAYYUUUMM!!!!!
That's a pretty good thing to point out and it really shows the contrast between the types of games an dthe payment models. Funny thing is, people complain about the amount you need to spend in some F2P games to be competetive, but completely ignore something:
F2P: Let's say you need to spend between $100-200 to be pretty competetive in a certain F2P MMO (one that doesn't have a completely game breaking cash shop, but does allow you to get some bonuses and advance a bit more quickly to get to end game), and can reach that point in a matter of a few weeks, or maybe a month or 2.
P2P: Some of the better P2P games would take you somewhere around 6 months, possibly a year, to grind everything out, get your best gear, max level, etc and get to the point that the above F2P play would get you. So for argument's sake let's say you spend $50 on the game, then $15 a month for 6 months, totalling $140 for 6 months worth of play + all the hours spent doing all the grinding & getting gear.
People complain about the cost linked to being competetive F2P games vs P2P, and say they nickle and dime you and empty your wallet, but there's really very little difference in price in the end between the 2, and F2P also consumes much less time than the P2P to get to the same point. So which is really more costly?
I understand there are some F2Ps that are just ridiculous in the area of needing to spend to compete, but that's not the norm anymore a sit was a couple years ago. Many games now tend to be somewhere in the price range i mentioned above, and once you get to that point there is usually very little to no spending needed since youve already got all you need.
LotRO top 5?
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I doubt they have more than 300k subs.
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Well shave my back and call me an elf! -- Oghren
Guild Wars is NOT mmo lol god people
Just my thoughts exactly.
The p2p model is changing to that of f2p/sub hybrid. This move with Lotro is rather big, I won't say I wasn't expecting it, but not so soon. This will definitely have quite a big impact on the mmorpg market overall.
I'm curious how all those low,medium quality f2p mmorpgs will survive if it will become a trend for a typical sub game to go this hybrid route - guess they'll be just shut down. The only appeal in those rather bad mmorpgs was the f2p element.
This new model can become actually quite convinient - imagine how much money you've wasted sometimes on games, box+one time sub because there wasn't any trials, just hype..... and after you play it some and then you realize that it isn't the game for you.
In the end if the game is worth it, I will pay for it while casuals can enjoy their free content and still have fun in the game - of course everything dpends on the cash shop, premiums etc. design. Trubine did it right with D&D but that doesn't mean other companies will do the same, they can offer extra things that would be truly game breaking to a f2p/premium balance.
Time will tell if we will really accept these kind of hybrids - I can say that in a few years either we will miss only subscription based mmos or never look back and switch happily, or everything will go crazy (full f2p mmos with adverts in it anyone?) or ... everything will be so mixed up that we won't really care about it and play this one awesome mmo despite its money making model. Time will tell....
I didn't mean it will impact WoW subscribers who kep playing it, it will impact those who leave WoW for some of the games that actually offer something new and different rather than the trend of WoW clones weve seen. When they leave WoW for games such as GW2 with no sub, they will realize "why the hell have i been paying $15 a month this whole time. i dont need a subscription to have a good game?"
As for the part in red, DDO is an example that has shown everything you said right there to be untrue. They are still improving the game and adding new content, and it's still 100% F2P to be "good". The cash shop has nothing that gives people an advantage of others, at least not very much, and everything in the shop can be obtained for free by earning Favor ingame, it just wont be instant like it was if you spent $. It may not have had many subscribers as P2P, but now that its F2P it has gained a massive increase in both subs and profit.
I may be misunderstanding as I haven't read everything on how DDO and LoTR subs work, but isn't the gist that the game will be F2P up to a point and then you have to pay in order to get further? Please correct me if I am wrong.
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