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Could FFXIV subscriptions pass WoW

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  • IkkeiIkkei Member Posts: 169

    Comparing WoW to XIV is like asking if the next Woody Allen will sell more than the last James Cameron. It just won't.

    1. Long-term subs are closely related to launch figures. A game that starts at 500k cannot reach 5M, it just doesn't happen. The hype is all around release, and by the time expansions kick-in and may bring more players, the game already has a rather definitive image for players: those who play, know why; those who don't, also know why. Most often, it just doesn't change. MMORPGs gains subs mostly because the market increases and other games die, but it just doesn't change the order of things. The PS3 release might help triple or more the sub base of FF XIV, but considering the market share of FF XI, I don't see the global subs for FF XIV reaching even half a million subs within a year. Don't forget that there are much more PS2 than there are PS3 in the world, this will be a serious slowdown for FF XIV. You can't just convert the FF XI sub base to the XIV's. It will take time. And as time goes by, more competitors, more recent, better made, will hit the market. Don't just think 2011, think 2013.

    2. The online FF community, not unlike fans of the kind of cinema that Woody Allen does, are special in the midst of MMORPG enthusiasts. From what I've gathered in XI and now on XIV, I would describe that community as "very knowledgeable" (about the game) which makes for some kind of elitism at one end, and newbie-unfriendliness at the other end. If you don't believe me, just think of how many times you hear such things as "Can't use macros? Can't bother to learn very complicated crafting systems? Can't use third-party websites all the time? Then just don't play" on FF fansites. I think those reply speak for themselves. How many times do you hear that "if you're not smart enough to play FF, then just don't bother us with jumping and your WoW-ideas". This, dear friends, is q cold shower for newcomers. Combined with the general imperviousness of the game, many newbies just leave and feel lonely.

    3. FF XIV in China may get a nice market share, but don't think WoW is the only competitor there. There are dozens of chinese-MMO, made by and for chinese, that keep players very busy there—well, at least to the extent that the State lets them do. I doubt chinese players are waiting for FF as some kind of savior. It will be a curiosity, it may have some buzz. But culturally, I would consider Korean games to be much closer to chinese tastes than Jap prods.

    All of this tells me that there is no way FF XIV can compete with WoW, not even by a 1:10 ratio. Hell, just considering the intalled base of devices that can run the game—PS3 and high-end PC rigs—you can't outsell WoW.

    If there was a game to compete with WoW, it will be TOR because at least they put the means on the table prior to release (100-150M$ budget). Yet, it being sci-fi and WoW fantasy tells us that WoW will still rule the market. FF XIV is just not in the same category. Woody Allen people, vs James Cameron. Just think of it this way. For the record, I think Avatar is sh**, yet it's by far the most profitable movie in history. No Woody Allen can ever come close to that, simply because you won't find 10% of Avatar/Terminator adorers that appreciate intellectual movies. 

  • SuperXero89SuperXero89 Member UncommonPosts: 2,551

    I would say that FFXIV could surpass WoW, but the only problem is there aren't 11 million computers at Nasa to run this game on.

     

    (bad joke)

  • ShadusShadus Member UncommonPosts: 669

    Unless they do a massive polish push before launch in china, no... and even if they do they'll never match wows numbers. Much like ffxi ffxiv is niche to some degree, nothing wrong to that it knows its market and plays it well... but it'll never be as big as wow. Which is sad being that it has much deeper less shallow game play.. but it is also plagued by a horrible ui and a multitude of issues a game shouldn't have on launch day even still... some will get better some won't... but unless they add a ton of polish and come up looking decent on launch day outlook isn't good.

    Shadus

  • Zookz1Zookz1 Member Posts: 629

    Originally posted by Raxeon

    Originally posted by Anubisan

    WoW is a superior game with superior controls and much friendlier system specs... that is all it will take to dominate FFXIV.

     wow isnt superior its easy mode

     

    Could you please enlighten me? What constitutes easy mode in an MMORPG? What about hard mode? Is FFXIV a hard mode game?

  • holdenhamletholdenhamlet Member EpicPosts: 3,772

    A lot of people are guessing in this thread that it won't come close because the hype is a bit negative here in the states before release (mostly because of people like Spoony not even knowing what they're looking at for 10 seconds and then making a "review").  That all may affect NA sales, but FFXIV has an extra market that WoW doesn't- Japan.  Even if it flops here (it's not going to), it could make up for it by doing well in Japan.

    So that basically leaves Chinese internet gamers.  Will they switch to FFXIV?  I'm not sure but surely nobody else here does either.

    In any case it's not about whether Tom Smith will play the game, it's about whether Zhang Wong will play it.

    Not that I really care.  As long as there's a few hundred thousand players that speak English that I can play with, that works for me.

    Besides, I had my most mmorpg fun in ffxi out of all the games I've played, and if one were to just look at reviews or general impressions, one might think that it was the worst game ever and flopped horribly.  Meanwhile the game was great, and it held 500k subs for about 5 years straight (doing so directly in the midst of WoW getting released and skyrocketing), meaning it was in the top 4 or 5 of profits for MMORPGs just from subs alone.  It easily outperformed WAR, AOC, City of Heroes/Villians, and LOTRO.

    There seemed to have been a consensus among NA writers and bloggers and message board posters that FFXI was bad and failed.  I see the same thing happening with this game, but it's clear sub numbers don't connect well with the consensus of the internet.  Many people were convinced WAR or AOC would kill WoW or come close and obviously they were wrong.

    Nobody knows at this point, though, and posting a flat "No" and laughing shows you're not considering other markets besides our own.  My bet is on Zhang Wong.  I just hope they update his gaming computer at the internet cafe so I can party with him using the translator.

  • mainvein33mainvein33 Member Posts: 406

    The answer is highly likely not. The simple answer is WoW is based on mass appeal while FFXIV like FFXI is niche. That being said its not impossible just very close to that. All types of factors show up that would make FFXIV an unlikely candidate to stress WoWs sub numbers even if WoW was shut down likely players would go to a game with a similiar design, gameplay and controls and FFXIV is not one of those games at all. Likely the biggest release we will see in the near future will be GW2 but since subs are still a no go for the title it wont factor as much in eating WoWs numbers.

  • PresbytierPresbytier Member UncommonPosts: 424

    Originally posted by Zookz1

    Originally posted by Raxeon


    Originally posted by Anubisan

    WoW is a superior game with superior controls and much friendlier system specs... that is all it will take to dominate FFXIV.

     wow isnt superior its easy mode

     

    Could you please enlighten me? What constitutes easy mode in an MMORPG? What about hard mode? Is FFXIV a hard mode game?

    Ill thought out rhetoric never gets anybody anywhere. That being said apples and oranges are both fruit, but I would never measure them against each other.

    "Never pay more than 20 bucks for a computer game."-Guybrush Threepwood
    "I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me."-Hunter S. Thompson

  • Miles-ProwerMiles-Prower Member Posts: 1,106

    I'm going to go with a very very big no. FFXIV is an interesting game that has great potential, and has the backing of a company that has been in the MMORPG and RPG business a lot longer than Blizzard. Heck, Squaresoft was making games almost 10 years before Blizzard was dishing out ports with Interplay.

    Nobody knows why Blizzard is so successful, but their track record is truly worthy of the Dean's List of MMORPGs if there ever was one. Every game they've ever made has been touted as a success or revolutionary in design.

    With the release of the PS3 version of FFXIV we may see a larger increase in numbers, but right now given the steep requirements for the PC version, FFXIV will probably remain a niche game.

    Square-Enix loves to make things pretty, I'll give them that. As far as graphics go, they are pretty much second to none.

     

    ~Miles "Tails" Prower out! Catch me if you can!

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  • Shivian12Shivian12 Member Posts: 14

    It's possible lets not forget that its also coming out for the PS3 and the PS3 is crossplatform supported and WoW has NOTHING on that! Plus it doesn't matter where in the world you are you can still login either PS3 or PC perhaps with the same PC version accounts we started with Open Beta.

  • FalcomithFalcomith Member UncommonPosts: 831
    No. And its a simple answer really. WoW can be played on very low end PCs where FFXIV you have to have at least a mid par PC. There is allot more that own low end PCs then mid to high end around the world and there fore WoW can and will always appeal to that audience first. If Square Enix wants a wider audience and want a chance at it they have to optimize there software better. I have not been impressed with the performance of FFXIV as I have toyed with it since alpha testing. Even if they performed a miracle and optimized the game for more of the general audience, the content is very lacking (yes they say there will be more at release blah blah blah), even in the beginning and therefore they have no chance in overtaking WoW.

    Another thing you also have to consider, nothing is going to make that kind of subscription base in the first,second,or third year of the game being live. WoW has been or will be out 6 years this coming Nov. Too many players have so much time invested into WoW just to pick up and leave.

    I was really looking forward to FFXIV when I first heard they were making it, but being in the betas just put a sour taste in my mouth.
  • jdnewelljdnewell Member UncommonPosts: 2,237

    No. And its a simple answer really. WoW can be played on very low end PCs where FFXIV you have to have at least a mid par PC.

     

    Yup.

    I can play WoW on low settings with a 10 year old pc and a $20 GPU.

    Thats the reason for its sub numbers and why nothing will touch it for a long time to come.

  • Colossus1979Colossus1979 Member Posts: 125

    Originally posted by Anubisan

    WoW is a superior game with superior controls and much friendlier system specs... that is all it will take to dominate FFXIV.

     um.......i'll just agree to disagree.

    image

    Played:FFXI, WoW, LOTR,EQ. Playing:FFXIV.
    Looking Forward To:DCU, SWTOR.

  • MisterSrMisterSr Member UncommonPosts: 928

    Originally posted by Uldah

    Originally posted by Robokapp


    Originally posted by Swanea

    If it actually hits PS3 before the game is 3 years old, I could see it doing VERY well outside of the west.

    Otherwise, lolno.

     how many PS3s do you think there are outside of West and Japan/Korea?

     


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  • scythe99scythe99 Member Posts: 326

    Probally not, since FF14 is not casual easymode like WoW is. it has a diffrent playerbase in mind. WoW's appeal is because its a easy mmorpg, and its made for people who have bad pc's and only have a few hours here and there to play its also very user friendly. I dislike wow myself, but I honestly don't think any other mmorpg will come even close to its subscription base, they would honestly be lucky to get even 10% of wow's sub base. If wow had at least a half-decent mature community I'd probally play it myself, but there are far to many immature players in its community for it to interest me.

    "An MMORPG could be completely diffirent from WoW. Just look at games like Dofus, Wizard101 or EVE. But as it is, most of the Western MMOs are trying to succeed by out-WoWing WoW. It's like an army of 10 sports games made about same sports, and barely none about other sports. WoW clone is an accurate description of those games, it manages to convey much information with only two words."
    -Poster on mmorpg.com

    Rift: World of Warcraft clone #9321 Nothing special to see here move along.

  • Colossus1979Colossus1979 Member Posts: 125

    Originally posted by jdnewell

    No. And its a simple answer really. WoW can be played on very low end PCs where FFXIV you have to have at least a mid par PC.

     

    Yup.

    I can play WoW on low settings with a 10 year old pc and a $20 GPU.

    Thats the reason for its sub numbers and why nothing will touch it for a long time to come.

     

    no offence, but as a guy who was formerly "for the horde", the fact that they NEVER tried to even boost anything graphically for the last few years i played......pissed me off to no end. i mean...i was paying 60 bucks plus tax every 6 months, on top of those 2 expansions, then they decided to make "limited edition hey look i bought this" pets and mounts..that they didn't put IN the game ...you had to go on your battlenet and buy them...not to mention they needed to figure out a way almost every 6 months it seems to keep hackers from stripping you naked and raping all your gold (which imo is due to the fact they NEVER try to improve on anything on it in general security included...until the authenticator)....and they still care so much about you the "all new all different" is really just the old starting areas but not really (oh...so the barren desert of the barrens is now a lush jungle...OOOooooOOOO......there was already some jungle there guys.) they finally decided to give the horde the chance to be just as annoying in pvp as allies (if you DON'T think gnome rogues are annoying as hell, you probably have one...I never did....goblins are just green gnomes) and allies can be werewolves (which if i remember correctly goes AGAINST all the principles of the "holy light we don't need no stinking demon" alliance.....which technically so do the draenei but now i'm splitting hairs) and you can fly in a NEW old place. it's kinda sad that icecrown was basically a pure rip off of mordor and isengard....and that imo is better.

    image

    Played:FFXI, WoW, LOTR,EQ. Playing:FFXIV.
    Looking Forward To:DCU, SWTOR.

  • KaocanKaocan Member UncommonPosts: 1,270

    Originally posted by Ikkei

    1. Long-term subs are closely related to launch figures. A game that starts at 500k cannot reach 5M, it just doesn't happen.

     

    "The game sold more than 240,000 copies in its first 24 hours on the market, more than any other PC game in history"

     

    Strange bit of fact huh - but according to this prophet here, this game...called World of Warcraft, that started with a mere 240k could not ever reach 5M.

    "it just doesn't happen"

    (DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)

  • DisastormDisastorm Member Posts: 318

    Originally posted by Kaocan

    Originally posted by Ikkei

    1. Long-term subs are closely related to launch figures. A game that starts at 500k cannot reach 5M, it just doesn't happen.

     

    "The game sold more than 240,000 copies in its first 24 hours on the market, more than any other PC game in history"

     

    Strange bit of fact huh - but according to this prophet here, this game...called World of Warcraft, that started with a mere 240k could not ever reach 5M.

    "it just doesn't happen"

     There have been pc games that have sold millions on their first day.

  • Zookz1Zookz1 Member Posts: 629

    Originally posted by scythe99

    Probally not, since FF14 is not casual easymode like WoW is. it has a diffrent playerbase in mind. WoW's appeal is because its a easy mmorpg, and its made for people who have bad pc's and only have a few hours here and there to play its also very user friendly. I dislike wow myself, but I honestly don't think any other mmorpg will come even close to its subscription base, they would honestly be lucky to get even 10% of wow's sub base. If wow had at least a half-decent mature community I'd probally play it myself, but there are far to many immature players in its community for it to interest me.

     

    SE said upfront that FFXIV was being designed to compete with/overtake WoW, so I'm not sure what you're rambling on about.

  • GaurnGaurn Member Posts: 305

    Well, if it brings in more subs than FF11(reported by SE to have surpassed 2million last year) I'll be quite content with the playerbase I think. Unless they've made too many servers and then thinned the world in each because of it.

  • Laughing-manLaughing-man Member RarePosts: 3,655

    Originally posted by Divion

    Just how many do you think that own PS3 really have them for MMORPGs?

     

    Seriously, the people who mainstream MMORPGs, and that being their Genre of choice own PC's

     

    Consoles are more for SPRPGS, ARPS, FPS, Sports

     

    I think VERY few of those that own PS3s will be investing into FFXIV.

     

    I bought my PS3 FOR FFXIV...

    I'm sure I'm not the only one, as soon as they announced it I went out and got one, over a year ago.

    Sure I use it for other games too, however the reason I purchased it was the FFXIV announcement.

  • KaocanKaocan Member UncommonPosts: 1,270

    Originally posted by Disastorm

    Originally posted by Kaocan

    Originally posted by Ikkei

    1. Long-term subs are closely related to launch figures. A game that starts at 500k cannot reach 5M, it just doesn't happen.

     

    "The game sold more than 240,000 copies in its first 24 hours on the market, more than any other PC game in history"

     

    Strange bit of fact huh - but according to this prophet here, this game...called World of Warcraft, that started with a mere 240k could not ever reach 5M.

    "it just doesn't happen"

     There have been pc games that have sold millions on their first day.

     Your right, there have been, further proving the point that this comment and the wall of text based off this one comment, is in fact false. Those games that started with over 1M in the first day are in the other direction now, having gone down from thier first day sales.

    The point is, first day sub/sales means absolutely NOTHING when it comes to long term subscriber numbers. Period.

    (DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)

  • MetzaMetza Member Posts: 160

    pass wow. I dont think so, probally not even match the subs but there is no need for concern on the population there will be plenty of people. I believe they are releasing with 20 servers(i believe) so hopefully thats not to many but they are "world servers" so anyone playing the game anywhere in the world can play on any of the servers and even if the servers are a little thin which I doubt in six months when it releases for ps3 since most people cant afford to upgrade a pc just for this game the subs will go up extremely

    image

  • RelGnRelGn Member Posts: 494

    Originally posted by Dreadstone


    Stay with me a minute, lol.   I know this sounds like another 'WoW killer' troll post but it’s really an economic/culture/political question that came to mind after reading SE’s Sept. 16 announcement.  If you aren’t interested in those types of discussions, read no further!


     


    Try to put aside your personal feelings about FFXIV (or WoW).  Look at the question as about MMOs from different economic/cultural/political regions.  And whether which MMO ends up with the largest subscriptions has long-term economic/political implications.


     


    The motivation for this post comes from SE’s announcement that FFXIV would be offered in mainland China.  This would be the first FF product offered in China.


     


    We know from released numbers that WoW has somewhere between 10.5 and 11.5 million paid subscribers.  We know that a huge number of those subs are from China.  It is probable that WoW Cataclysm will hold and possibly increase those subscription numbers.


     


    We can tell from pre-order numbers for NA that FFXIV will most likely do at least OK in NA and we can assume the same will be true for the EU.  And from previous FF results FFXIV will be a blockbuster in Japan.  I expect there’s a lot of FFXIV that was influenced by Japanese culture,  I would also think that there are many similarities between Japanese and Chinese cultures.  At least as compared to similarities to US vs. Chinese cultures.  That could give an edge to FFXIV.


     


    Massively.com reported in an article in 2008 that as of 2007 China had 46 million online gamers which was growing annually.  Winning over the existing online Chinese gaming market could easily surpass WoW’s current numbers for either company.  If FFXIV wins the battle for China do you think that would have broader implications?  We all know there are current references to the ‘Western World’ based on the cultural similarities between many ‘western’ countries and the economic advantages of marketing products to nations with similar cultures.  So would FFXIV surpassing WoW with Chinese subscribers indicate the end to ancient political hostilities between the two countries and the beginnings of a powerful new ‘Eastern World’ economic block?


     


    Note:  Yes, these are the kind of strange, esoteric questions that run through my mind when I’m waiting for a game to launch and getting bored.:)   So just thought I'd put on my tinfoil hat and see if anyone else thinks about this kind of stuff.

    Yeah forums are good for killing your time.

    Well if everybody had a pc to run this game smoothly then the answear is yes.Counting on my insticts FFxiv will be a great success for people who can play it at max setings+3d.

    Luckily im the one of those.Because patience is a virtue

    image
  • Zookz1Zookz1 Member Posts: 629

    The point is, first day sub/sales means absolutely NOTHING when it comes to long term subscriber numbers. Period.

     

    If a game sells 1 million copies on its first day and a different game sells 250k copies its first day, I'd be comfortable saying that the game that sold 1 million copies is going to have more players in the long term. Just sayin'

  • KaocanKaocan Member UncommonPosts: 1,270

    Originally posted by Zookz1

    The point is, first day sub/sales means absolutely NOTHING when it comes to long term subscriber numbers. Period.

     

    If a game sells 1 million copies on its first day and a different game sells 250k copies its first day, I'd be comfortable saying that the game that sold 1 million copies is going to have more players in the long term. Just sayin'

     

    "Funcom has announce that it has shipped 700,000 units world wide for its May 20th launch date, which includes 110,000 units of the special edition box. To put that in perspective, World of Warcraft, which didn’t do a global launch, launched with 250,000 units in North America then a few months later in Europe with 280,000. Even if you add that up, that still puts AoC 170,000 units over WOW. This makes Age of Conan the highest pre-order number for any global launch of an original PC game, ever."

     

    You were saying again??

    (DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)

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