I believe it will have huge initial success but thing this time next year people will be playing GW2. I am not a GW fan nor do I intend to play it just for the record. TOR has some replayability if you want to play all the classes but I think once people exhaust the stories they want to see, I think they will leave the game and not give it much thought. It will be maybe the biggest box sales of any MMO ever in the states. I do not see it having WOW type retention success though.
I am excited for GW2 but i don't understand when players make thee comparisons. According to you, SWTOR has some replayablitity if you want to play all the classes but after that players wil leave. What about GW2? how many times one can run DE's over and over again? both games have lot to offer but people look at the games with tunnel vision and focus only on one feature. SWTOR has lot going for it then just personal storylines.
Was not comparing them in any way so hope there is no misunderstanding there. But I am curious what folks think it has going for it outside of the stories that will hold people. Sandbox type themes it does not have, space combat..nope, scripted raids it does but at some point people get sick of those. Robust crafting? Not so much. So currently you have story, some side stuff, raid and more raiding along with some silly looking huttball. There may be more to be revealed but just do not see the longevity. It will be polished, there will be good stories and all that bioware brings to the table. I just think once GW2 hits a lot of the base will move on is all.
Yeah but why SWTOR player base will move to GW2? does it have robust crafting? nope. is PVP any different then what MMOS mostly offer? nope. yes they don't have raiding per say for gears but they have DE's which although change everytime are bound to get repetitive. Outside of that what is there? exploration? SWTOR has it too, achievements and titles? so does SWTOR. Both have personal storylines, housing system..so i have no idea why would SWTOR player base all of a sudden start preferring GW2.
I base it on a number of things. I see a lot of folks saying that TOR is their holdover till GW2 on various forums both guild, fansite and official. The base of TOR might not run off and I doubt they will but thats the base and it is only a part of the whole that will make it successful.
Sorry but that is not some conclusive proof considering forums make what a very small fraction of gamers? people who say SWTOR is their hold off till GW2 are not the real fans anyways nor do they have any intention to stick to it long term. They just need something to kill their time, just that SWTOR happens to release between the gap and it could have been just any other MMO release and they would say the same. The real numbers for this MMO will come from Bioware fans and SW fans which are plenty.
I answered yes simply because you didn't define what you meant by "success".
Success is viewed very differently by EA than any poster on this forum. Unless you own EA stock I guess...
I seriously won't be suprised that this game would move 2 to 3 million copies .. from pre-order to the end of its first 30 days. It could be a financial success at launch from EA's point of view. Meaning that all production costs were covered and from that point on...
Personally I think the game will have a large launch base and quickly fall off by the end of year 1. It won't be a success for many MMO players but it certainly will be for EA (that's my opinion).
I think SWTOR will be successful in the sense that it will generate enough revenue to be considered a profitable venture by its investors. I do not think it will have long term success comparable to WoW though.
My prediction is that it will sell tons of copies at release, but will falter when it comes to long term subscription retention.
I think it will do great they have over 400 k pre orders in the us alone. Its also due to story one of the most replayable games out there.
rolling an alt wont be just going through the same areas u did before u have a tottally dffrent story per class. While on the same side republic or empire u might have some class story quests alike but if u do a republic character then an empire character u have 0 class quests the same.
Take into account the planetary stories on each planet and all the other end game stuff all mmo's have and bioware has said we havent even seen half there flashpoints which means theres alot more then we know about.
This game has plenty of content to keep people in game. If u are one who rushes to end game does all that and never re rolls as anything else then u might leave but i find majority of mmo's players tend to roll alts in any game and tor has great reason to rol alts.
Plus it has alot of content for end game and non end game. They have a pve planet and pvp planet just for end game. Games that lose subs lose them cause they have nothing to do at end game tor has multiple thing to do at end game.
Especially if u re roll so not ony do i think it will be a sucess but depending how fast they give us new content in patches i see this game keep 75 pct or m ore of its sub base.
Basing your figures on what the forum posters say . If you go by that litmus WoW should be having less than a few thousand players. Considering the amount of hatred WoW has garnered it is amazing it has 11 million players.
Forum posters have no real numbers the real power is the ones who quietly go out and buy the games and play them equally quietly. Besides a lot of us write one thing and do quite another and do not have the stones to come post here that they changed their minds.
+3
(one for each very true comment)
Originally posted by Loke666
I think the game will do fine but not great. Somewhere between 500K and 2M subscriptions after the first few months.
Wow, that's one hell of a definition for 'not great'. Less than 2 million is 'not great'?
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I think it can. It will compete with Rift/WoW/EQ2 as long as they remember the MMO in MMORPG. It looks like they have a solid grasp on the RPG part better then I have seen in years.
Just do not pull a GW2 and take away the reason to even talk to other people in the game.
I think it can. It will compete with Rift/WoW/EQ2 as long as they remember the MMO in MMORPG. It looks like they have a solid grasp on the RPG part better then I have seen in years.
Just do not pull a GW2 and take away the reason to even talk to other people in the game.
Sadly the crew is formed and it will be very unlikely our paths will ever cross. UNless you are a reasonable well formed Human being who cares about longevity gameplay and fun,. no racing required.
The game i all about choice which is the winner here; I don't have to speak to anyone I do not to wish to in this game and that is how it should. Good games are all about choice, aligned with the story is a win win to me.
________________________________________________________ Sorcery must persist, the future is the Citadel
I think SWTOR will be successful in the sense that it will generate enough revenue to be considered a profitable venture by its investors. I do not think it will have long term success comparable to WoW though.
My prediction is that it will sell tons of copies at release, but will falter when it comes to long term subscription retention.
I think one issue with retention is that the game development process has changed. It used to be, hire a huge team, build a kick butt game, release, patch out the bugs, send everyone on vacation because we're done.
MMORPG is a service industry. Box sales are still somewhat like conventional games, but continued service and marketing are essential. Every three months something new. Every holiday a special event. Always keep the process rolling.
There's a couple games that I've played that show little or no indication of ever doing any continued development. Here's the game, go play. That won't keep a player more than three months. After a little while the whole game is "been there done that" and they leave.
Blizzards understands this completely (although recently execution has been questionable). SOE understood this with EQ. Not sure what to expect with SW:TOR.
Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security. I don't Forum PVP. If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident. When I don't understand, I ask. Such is not intended as criticism.
Of course it will be a success. SWG did everything in the world to tick off it's playerbase and give itself a bad name but it still lasted 8 years (and could have lasted longer).
I think it will be HUGE at launch. Everyone will play it. Then after they've reached end game in a few months time, everyone will leave and the hardcore KOTOR/SW fans will stay and the game will still be profitiable. It'll probably still be one of the most popular games out there.
But it's not going to be the "next WOW," as I'm sure LA is hoping it will be. GW2 will probably manage to be hugely popular as well, but I don't think it's going to have a larger playerbase than TOR. I think it will be generally perceived among MMO fans as the better game, but I think TOR will appeal to too many people with it's IP for it to have as much. However, if GW2 is amazing, that may not be true.
I think BioWare is going to have a tough time finishing additional content/expansions and it will anger the playerbase. I think it'll take a lot longer than other companies bc of the way BioWare likes to "perfect" everything. This game has been in dev., forever. And their policy on not talkin gabout stuff until it's ready means you probably won't hear about an expansion coming for a lot longer than other games. This will probably hurt them in the long run, after everyone gets bored at end game.
i believe within a yr tor will have 4-5 mil subs . I truly do. I think bioware's rep and story and bioware fans coupled with star wars fans will make this game a good success now a wow success probably not.
Will they hit 11 mil in 5 yrs i doubt it but u never know that said 4-5 mil after a yr or so is a good number i think they will get.
Story will keep more players then u think once u play a class im betting people will wanan play story on the other faction at the very least.
just from a story standpoint i wanna play all 8 classes. If bioware can crank out updates and stuff at a reasonable rate and keep the bugs to a minimum and fix the game quicky when they do have issues i dont see players leavfing due to lack of content like so often happens in other mmo's
I have a feeling this game will sell more boxes within 3 months than SWG did during during its entire 8 yrs....including expansions. So from the get go it will be a hit...the problem that folks point out is how many will stay past a month or so.
I see it like this....
For a super casual player(someone that plays 5 to 10 hrs a week), I think this game will keep them subscribed a very long time.
For the 10 to 25 hrs a week person...IMO you have to look at will BW keep producing content, and do those persons intend to play thru all class stories. If the answer to both these are yes, then I have to believe those players will be around for at least a yr or two.
25 or more hrs per week....Strictly going to be a matter if they like the end game mechanics. No company is ever going to be able to produce content fast enough to keep folks like this supplied in new content constantly.
Box sales alone will make this game a success. The player retention will simply be gravy IMO.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
It's going to sell an amazing amount of boxes. It will retain less of those box sales but will retain enough for Bioware/EA to make their "Numberz"
The average person who plays games isn't looking for their holy grail of gaming. They are going to look for something fun and in this case, set in the star wars universe.
Like Skyrim? Need more content? Try my Skyrim mod "Godfred's Tomb."
It's going to seel an amazing amount of boxes. It will retain less of those box sales but will retain enough for Bioware/EA to make their "Numberz"
The average person who plays games isn't looking for their holy grail of gaming. They are going to look for something fun and in this case, set in the star wars universe.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
It will sell well and it will have a decent size community large enough to sustain its development. I am very skeptical that it will be anything as big some people claim it will be or that it will be as revolutionary as some people feel it will. It adds story to MMO's but if the latest gameplay video shows anything, it shows that it does not revolutionize gameplay. I personally do not believe story alone will revolutionize the market or energize the masses.
To me that still spells success, so I voted yes, but I know others hold much higher aspirations for this game.
I'm staying at what the official EA forcasts have stated. A projected 3-4+ million box sales within a one year period, and easily over 1 million concurrent subscriptions after the first 3 months.
I think I heard a report that Swtor already has more pre-orders than CoD Black Ops had, which would make Swtor one of the largest pre-ordered games in the industry.
25 or more hrs per week....Strictly going to be a matter if they like the end game mechanics. No company is ever going to be able to produce content fast enough to keep folks like this supplied in new content constantly.
Box sales alone will make this game a success. The player retention will simply be gravy IMO.
Bioware can develop quality conent about twice as fast as most other development teams thanks to the Hero Engine's development tools. I think Bioware has fast content in mind, and they already have a layout of the next 10 planets or something like that.
While I voted yes, and am most definately hopefull (and if anyone reads my history - I'm usually not negative about anything - well except for idiots) However the 'information' coming out of Bioware for perhaps the past month is starting to follow the pattern of the ...last....big EA launch. Pretty much any serious question lately is answered by "We're considering that" or "We're looking into it" or "We're still working on that".
I was always planning on playing this game, but my opinion on how successful it was going to be has wavered back and forth based on some things they were doing with the game that I wasn't particularly fond of. Nothing game-breaking, but just little pet peeves. Then I read the Full Feature List thread at the top of the page from top to bottom, watching all the gameplay videos included. I gotta say...I am absolutely stoked for this game now. It's going to be a massive success. I was of the opinion that as long as BioWare released a polished, bug-free game, which I knew they would, that it would be a success. But there is, in fact, some innovative stuff in this game that you just don't see in other MMOs, and massive amounts of content and things to do. And the class progression system and customization is much, much more in depth than I ever could have imagined it was going to be. And honestly, the combat looks better in this game than any other MMO I've seen, with the possible exception of AoC. This game is going to be a huge success. No doubt about it. There will be some stuff missing from launch that I would like to see, but I guarantee BioWare will get that kind of stuff added in as time goes on.
Personally, I can't wait. My excitement was at one point only luck-warm, but right now it's the most excited I've been for an MMO in a very long time. It won't be the most innovative MMO ever, but there is some stuff in there that is pretty original in its own right. And the game just looks solid in every aspect. I'm pumped. Bring it on.
Comments
Sorry but that is not some conclusive proof considering forums make what a very small fraction of gamers? people who say SWTOR is their hold off till GW2 are not the real fans anyways nor do they have any intention to stick to it long term. They just need something to kill their time, just that SWTOR happens to release between the gap and it could have been just any other MMO release and they would say the same. The real numbers for this MMO will come from Bioware fans and SW fans which are plenty.
I answered yes simply because you didn't define what you meant by "success".
Success is viewed very differently by EA than any poster on this forum. Unless you own EA stock I guess...
I seriously won't be suprised that this game would move 2 to 3 million copies .. from pre-order to the end of its first 30 days. It could be a financial success at launch from EA's point of view. Meaning that all production costs were covered and from that point on...
Personally I think the game will have a large launch base and quickly fall off by the end of year 1. It won't be a success for many MMO players but it certainly will be for EA (that's my opinion).
This MMORPG will have a story, something that all MMORPG's have drifted away from. A welcomed addition.
I'm just going to post the rules of conduct for those who require a reminder.
http://www.mmorpg.com/disclaimers.cfm#conduct
I think SWTOR will be successful in the sense that it will generate enough revenue to be considered a profitable venture by its investors. I do not think it will have long term success comparable to WoW though.
My prediction is that it will sell tons of copies at release, but will falter when it comes to long term subscription retention.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
I think it will do great they have over 400 k pre orders in the us alone. Its also due to story one of the most replayable games out there.
rolling an alt wont be just going through the same areas u did before u have a tottally dffrent story per class. While on the same side republic or empire u might have some class story quests alike but if u do a republic character then an empire character u have 0 class quests the same.
Take into account the planetary stories on each planet and all the other end game stuff all mmo's have and bioware has said we havent even seen half there flashpoints which means theres alot more then we know about.
This game has plenty of content to keep people in game. If u are one who rushes to end game does all that and never re rolls as anything else then u might leave but i find majority of mmo's players tend to roll alts in any game and tor has great reason to rol alts.
Plus it has alot of content for end game and non end game. They have a pve planet and pvp planet just for end game. Games that lose subs lose them cause they have nothing to do at end game tor has multiple thing to do at end game.
Especially if u re roll so not ony do i think it will be a sucess but depending how fast they give us new content in patches i see this game keep 75 pct or m ore of its sub base.
I think the game will do fine but not great. Somewhere between 500K and 2M subscriptions after the first few months.
Bioware have many fans, Star wars is a popular IP and the game seems to be pretty well done.
It wont get 10 million players though, the competition is getting a lot tougher nowadays.
My definition of a successful MMO is:
Large ammount of initial sales. What is a large ammount for me? 1 million +
Enough subs to make the game profitable for the devs. And I said proffitable, not insanely rich.
A large enough comuntity to keep the servers flowing, not flooded with players.
And most important of all, THAT I LIKE IT!
+3
(one for each very true comment)
Wow, that's one hell of a definition for 'not great'. Less than 2 million is 'not great'?
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I think it can. It will compete with Rift/WoW/EQ2 as long as they remember the MMO in MMORPG. It looks like they have a solid grasp on the RPG part better then I have seen in years.
Just do not pull a GW2 and take away the reason to even talk to other people in the game.
It can't fail they will recover costs just on the single player element.....
The real question is how much of a success it will be....
________________________________________________________
Sorcery must persist, the future is the Citadel
Sadly the crew is formed and it will be very unlikely our paths will ever cross. UNless you are a reasonable well formed Human being who cares about longevity gameplay and fun,. no racing required.
The game i all about choice which is the winner here; I don't have to speak to anyone I do not to wish to in this game and that is how it should. Good games are all about choice, aligned with the story is a win win to me.
________________________________________________________
Sorcery must persist, the future is the Citadel
I think one issue with retention is that the game development process has changed. It used to be, hire a huge team, build a kick butt game, release, patch out the bugs, send everyone on vacation because we're done.
MMORPG is a service industry. Box sales are still somewhat like conventional games, but continued service and marketing are essential. Every three months something new. Every holiday a special event. Always keep the process rolling.
There's a couple games that I've played that show little or no indication of ever doing any continued development. Here's the game, go play. That won't keep a player more than three months. After a little while the whole game is "been there done that" and they leave.
Blizzards understands this completely (although recently execution has been questionable). SOE understood this with EQ. Not sure what to expect with SW:TOR.
Of course it will be a success. SWG did everything in the world to tick off it's playerbase and give itself a bad name but it still lasted 8 years (and could have lasted longer).
I think it will be HUGE at launch. Everyone will play it. Then after they've reached end game in a few months time, everyone will leave and the hardcore KOTOR/SW fans will stay and the game will still be profitiable. It'll probably still be one of the most popular games out there.
But it's not going to be the "next WOW," as I'm sure LA is hoping it will be. GW2 will probably manage to be hugely popular as well, but I don't think it's going to have a larger playerbase than TOR. I think it will be generally perceived among MMO fans as the better game, but I think TOR will appeal to too many people with it's IP for it to have as much. However, if GW2 is amazing, that may not be true.
I think BioWare is going to have a tough time finishing additional content/expansions and it will anger the playerbase. I think it'll take a lot longer than other companies bc of the way BioWare likes to "perfect" everything. This game has been in dev., forever. And their policy on not talkin gabout stuff until it's ready means you probably won't hear about an expansion coming for a lot longer than other games. This will probably hurt them in the long run, after everyone gets bored at end game.
i believe within a yr tor will have 4-5 mil subs . I truly do. I think bioware's rep and story and bioware fans coupled with star wars fans will make this game a good success now a wow success probably not.
Will they hit 11 mil in 5 yrs i doubt it but u never know that said 4-5 mil after a yr or so is a good number i think they will get.
Story will keep more players then u think once u play a class im betting people will wanan play story on the other faction at the very least.
just from a story standpoint i wanna play all 8 classes. If bioware can crank out updates and stuff at a reasonable rate and keep the bugs to a minimum and fix the game quicky when they do have issues i dont see players leavfing due to lack of content like so often happens in other mmo's
I have a feeling this game will sell more boxes within 3 months than SWG did during during its entire 8 yrs....including expansions. So from the get go it will be a hit...the problem that folks point out is how many will stay past a month or so.
I see it like this....
For a super casual player(someone that plays 5 to 10 hrs a week), I think this game will keep them subscribed a very long time.
For the 10 to 25 hrs a week person...IMO you have to look at will BW keep producing content, and do those persons intend to play thru all class stories. If the answer to both these are yes, then I have to believe those players will be around for at least a yr or two.
25 or more hrs per week....Strictly going to be a matter if they like the end game mechanics. No company is ever going to be able to produce content fast enough to keep folks like this supplied in new content constantly.
Box sales alone will make this game a success. The player retention will simply be gravy IMO.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
Of course its going to be a success.
It's going to sell an amazing amount of boxes. It will retain less of those box sales but will retain enough for Bioware/EA to make their "Numberz"
The average person who plays games isn't looking for their holy grail of gaming. They are going to look for something fun and in this case, set in the star wars universe.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
This.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I'm staying at what the official EA forcasts have stated. A projected 3-4+ million box sales within a one year period, and easily over 1 million concurrent subscriptions after the first 3 months.
I think I heard a report that Swtor already has more pre-orders than CoD Black Ops had, which would make Swtor one of the largest pre-ordered games in the industry.
Bioware can develop quality conent about twice as fast as most other development teams thanks to the Hero Engine's development tools. I think Bioware has fast content in mind, and they already have a layout of the next 10 planets or something like that.
While I voted yes, and am most definately hopefull (and if anyone reads my history - I'm usually not negative about anything - well except for idiots) However the 'information' coming out of Bioware for perhaps the past month is starting to follow the pattern of the ...last....big EA launch. Pretty much any serious question lately is answered by "We're considering that" or "We're looking into it" or "We're still working on that".
It's getting kind of late guys!!!
I don't think THAT is safe to say about ANY MMO. Seriously. Just no.
President of The Marvelously Meowhead Fan Club
Yes. WoW killer, maybe.
I'm going to pass on ToR (for now at least) but I do see this game succeeding.
It is not, by any means, the game 'all of us' were waiting for. 'Some of us' would be far more accurate.
I was always planning on playing this game, but my opinion on how successful it was going to be has wavered back and forth based on some things they were doing with the game that I wasn't particularly fond of. Nothing game-breaking, but just little pet peeves. Then I read the Full Feature List thread at the top of the page from top to bottom, watching all the gameplay videos included. I gotta say...I am absolutely stoked for this game now. It's going to be a massive success. I was of the opinion that as long as BioWare released a polished, bug-free game, which I knew they would, that it would be a success. But there is, in fact, some innovative stuff in this game that you just don't see in other MMOs, and massive amounts of content and things to do. And the class progression system and customization is much, much more in depth than I ever could have imagined it was going to be. And honestly, the combat looks better in this game than any other MMO I've seen, with the possible exception of AoC. This game is going to be a huge success. No doubt about it. There will be some stuff missing from launch that I would like to see, but I guarantee BioWare will get that kind of stuff added in as time goes on.
Personally, I can't wait. My excitement was at one point only luck-warm, but right now it's the most excited I've been for an MMO in a very long time. It won't be the most innovative MMO ever, but there is some stuff in there that is pretty original in its own right. And the game just looks solid in every aspect. I'm pumped. Bring it on.