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Let's predict retention/growth in six months!

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Comments

  • Panther2103Panther2103 Member EpicPosts: 5,779

    Originally posted by Teala

    After following this game through EGA and  release, and it's been only two days...based on feedback from players comments on the main board, like,

    "game just feels dead."

    "This game is dead already?"

    "Where are all the people?"

    "Anyone else feel like they've played this game before?"

    "Where are the high res graphics?"

    "Please Bioware fix the UI..."

    "Is anyone else all ready bored?"

    "Is this really all there is?"

    "Does anyone else feel like they are playing a single-player RPG?"

    "Why is the game missing basic features we see in most MMO's?"

    and on, and on, and on...mods over there are working hard for their money that's for sure.

    I'm going with huge decline somewhere near 70%.   Unless Bioware starts addressing these players concerns and quickly, this games honeymoon may be the fastest we've ever seen in an MMO and the migration of players from the game might be just as fast.  It is sad that this IP being what it is(it is Star Wars!), I do not think will even be enough to save this game if Bioware isn't on their game with fixes, updates and content.  

    That's weird. I haven't seen any of those comments other than maybe the high res graphics one. My server is one of the lower population heavy servers and I have seen people in every area in every town in every instance and my guild has a constant 90+ online. I'm sure you are stretching what you hear to make it sound a lot worse.

  • DannyGloverDannyGlover Member Posts: 1,277


    Originally posted by Teala
    After following this game through EGA and  release, and it's been only two days...based on feedback from players comments on the main board, like,
    "game just feels dead."
    "This game is dead already?"
    "Where are all the people?"
    "Anyone else feel like they've played this game before?"
    "Where are the high res graphics?"
    "Please Bioware fix the UI..."
    "Is anyone else all ready bored?"
    "Is this really all there is?"
    "Does anyone else feel like they are playing a single-player RPG?"
    "Why is the game missing basic features we see in most MMO's?"
    and on, and on, and on...mods over there are working hard for their money that's for sure.
    I'm going with huge decline somewhere near 70%.   Unless Bioware starts addressing these players concerns and quickly, this games honeymoon may be the fastest we've ever seen in an MMO and the migration of players from the game might be just as fast.  It is sad that this IP being what it is(it is Star Wars!), I do not think will even be enough to save this game if Bioware isn't on their game with fixes, updates and content.  

    You take the good,
    You take the bad,
    You take them both,
    And there you have,
    The facts of Life
    :)

    I think people see what they want to see, both good and bad. I wouldn't invest too much faith in other people's personal preferences.

    I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself and others that I am very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means - except by getting off his back.

  • sonoggisonoggi Member Posts: 1,119

    TOR will settle at around 1mill dedicated fans after about 6 months. not worried about lack of content, but people will get tired of the same old quickly.

  • TGSOLTGSOL Member Posts: 274

    TOR will be second only to WoW in terms of subscription numbers. At least in the west.

  • itgrowlsitgrowls Member Posts: 2,951

    As i've said before many times on any forums concerning SWTOR if they continue the fail model of Blizzard without upgrading their game mechanics to a next gen mmo they will fail. It's simple. While in six months people are waiting for yet another year for an expansion after they have played thru on their mains and alts the game entirely on every alt and completed all of the dungeons and mastered every profession, they will become bored because what's left for them to do, Holocrons??! HA. 

    I agree with most of us old heads we need a next gen mmo and SWTOR is not it. Voice overs are nice but when it comes down to it you can't really do much with those in the end game grind.

  • DannyGloverDannyGlover Member Posts: 1,277


    Originally posted by sonoggi
    TOR will settle at around 1mill dedicated fans after about 6 months. not worried about lack of content, but people will get tired of the same old quickly.


    TOR wont fail, but it will be very average. i dont think it will move past 300k subs after the first few months.
    -Sonoggi


    Backpedal much? :P

    I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself and others that I am very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means - except by getting off his back.

  • AglarannaAglaranna Member Posts: 204

    Huge decline

  • WarmakerWarmaker Member UncommonPosts: 2,246

    I despise everything about this game except for the Star Wars name, and even then, it's not set in the era I prefer.  With that said, I think the game will maintain its numbers for most parts, maybe grow more.  And with it, further adversely affect the MMORPG genre as a whole.

    "I have only two out of my company and 20 out of some other company. We need support, but it is almost suicide to try to get it here as we are swept by machine gun fire and a constant barrage is on us. I have no one on my left and only a few on my right. I will hold." (First Lieutenant Clifton B. Cates, US Marine Corps, Soissons, 19 July 1918)

  • AzariaAzaria Member Posts: 318

    Originally posted by Warmaker

    I despise everything about this game except for the Star Wars name, and even then, it's not set in the era I prefer.  With that said, I think the game will maintain its numbers for most parts, maybe grow more.  And with it, further adversely affect the MMORPG genre as a whole.

    I think SWTOR will in fact retain numbers to keep it alive and somewhat relevent, what I dont think it will do is eclipse 3 million, I honestly do not think it will eclipse AION I think it will compete with the numbers EVE online and RIFT put out,  I still say it will settle at about 400thousand. Thats if they do everything right and get Johnny on the spot with the next content patch, because thier going to have to work triple overtime and not sleep to get out enough content and playability features out on the next patch, not next year the next major content patch. A cautionary tale as well, WAR and RIFT both had a negative reaction to their major patches after release that acutally hurt the game, this is also a path TOR cannot go down. 

  • DannyGloverDannyGlover Member Posts: 1,277


    Originally posted by Warmaker
    I despise everything about this game except for the Star Wars name, and even then, it's not set in the era I prefer.  With that said, I think the game will maintain its numbers for most parts, maybe grow more.  And with it, further adversely affect the MMORPG genre as a whole.

    I read that, then looked over at your avatar, then lol'd hard. Thank you! :)

    I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself and others that I am very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means - except by getting off his back.

  • OnomasOnomas Member UncommonPosts: 1,151

    Large decline, i see 25% if not more drop off after 6 months. TOR just doesnt have enough to keep people occupied. THis should have been a sandbox. This themepark stuff is a joke, and only leads people to the endgame faster, and offers not enough content.

     

    STAR WARS = EPIC, TOR is limited in many apsects of a true and good mmo. And no im not a hater or fan boi, just love star wars, and this is an injustice.

  • spizzspizz Member UncommonPosts: 1,971

    I will predict this game will go in the direction similar to the other themepark games i.e. Age of Conan maybe a little better.

  • deadmanbelldeadmanbell Member UncommonPosts: 69

    I think they will shout it down when Anarchy Online comes out  with there Graphics update at the end of 2012.

    Seriously, Every new MMO takes dive after they launch and people get bored with them or hit a wall. But there has been so much hype on this game that I expect it to be even worse. You think someone would figure out a simple truth in life when it comes to these games. Under promise and over deliver. But they just keep throwing this stuff up against the wall and there seems to be enough of us that pick it up sniff it and bite  into it  ( as I look over at my at my collector Darth Malgus figure).

    I also have a life time subscription to Star Trek online. Which I got that going for me... which is nice.

  • EliandalEliandal Member Posts: 796

    Originally posted by Onomas

    Large decline, i see 25% if not more drop off after 6 months. TOR just doesnt have enough to keep people occupied. THis should have been a sandbox. This themepark stuff is a joke, and only leads people to the endgame faster, and offers not enough content.

     

    STAR WARS = EPIC, TOR is limited in many apsects of a true and good mmo. And no im not a hater or fan boi, just love star wars, and this is an injustice.

     

     

      Well....if it's only a 25% drop - that that's a FANTASTIC retention rate.  I'd be happy if they keep that many (since it would mean around 2 million or so subs)

     

      I'd expect a more 'normal' retention rate of about 25%...Which would STILL be a lot of subs.

  • SiveriaSiveria Member UncommonPosts: 1,421

    I think about 70-80% will have moved on after the first month you have to pay for a sub, the endgame stinks, the pvp stinks, and the replay value of swtor is bascally Nil, Go thru each faction once and thats about it. Other than class quests any other chars just get placed on a one way linear rail, and just follow it. Which is no fun at all the 2nd time thru. At least WoW has choices, usually has at least 2 diff zones you can level in per level bracket, swtor doesnm't even have this. I've played some f2p titles even with more intersting leveling and combat. Overall with how linear swtor is, I really don't think its worth a sub fee, free to play sure but 15/month to bascally follow train tracks in 1 set direction? no thanks.. I mean sure the game may be fun, but overall its a horribly flawed game experence, least IMO

    I'm personally waiting for Phantasy Star Online 2, because it'll actually be a mmo that feels somewhat fresh compared to all the world of warcraft clones that keep being puked out.

    Being a pessimist is a win-win pattern of thinking. If you're a pessimist (I'll admit that I am!) you're either:

    A. Proven right (if something bad happens)

    or

    B. Pleasantly surprised (if something good happens)

    Either way, you can't lose! Try it out sometime!

  • Atlan99Atlan99 Member UncommonPosts: 1,332

    Originally posted by Teala

    After following this game through EGA and  release, and it's been only two days...based on feedback from players comments on the main board, like,

    "game just feels dead."

    "This game is dead already?"

    "Where are all the people?"

    "Anyone else feel like they've played this game before?"

    "Where are the high res graphics?"

    "Please Bioware fix the UI..."

    "Is anyone else all ready bored?"

    "Is this really all there is?"

    "Does anyone else feel like they are playing a single-player RPG?"

    "Why is the game missing basic features we see in most MMO's?"

    and on, and on, and on...mods over there are working hard for their money that's for sure.

    I'm going with huge decline somewhere near 70%.   Unless Bioware starts addressing these players concerns and quickly, this games honeymoon may be the fastest we've ever seen in an MMO and the migration of players from the game might be just as fast.  It is sad that this IP being what it is(it is Star Wars!), I do not think will even be enough to save this game if Bioware isn't on their game with fixes, updates and content.  

    Really because I've had no problems with the game so far.

    The UI could use a little more love no doubt.

    The game looks great if you have the computer to run it on high settings.

    I have yet to see people in game complaining about SWTOR yet.

    I think the 70% decline you are you are hoping for is wishful thinking. This game has legs and nothing on the horizon has the ability to take it out.

  • DLangleyDLangley Member Posts: 1,407

    Let's stay on topic guys. This is not a SWTOR vs Another Game Thread.

  • dead2soondead2soon Member Posts: 149

    I would guess that after the shine wears off they will be in real trouble if they don't get improvments and new content in. My guess is they will make a big promise around the 60 day mark.

  • fenistilfenistil Member Posts: 3,005

    It is pure themepark game, this kind of mmoprg don't have ability anymore to keep majority of people playing for long time.

    On the other hand no developer figured (huge majority don't even tried) how to create a mmorpg gameplay model that will not be purely dependant on developer created content and still be even close to popular to WoW-like themeparks.

     

    So Swotr will have to face exactly same problems Rift and most mmoprg's  is facing.

     

    Dwindling numbers fast some time after release (or re-relase in case of games that transistoned to freemiuim). 

    Why it is happening?

    1. Many players start playing new themepark knowing that they'll stop after 1-6 months (majority of my colleagues that play Swtor already said that they'll leave after like 2-3 months)

    2. Increased accesibility, streamlining, and making mmorpg as conveniant as humanly possible have two effects : it increase playerbase BUT at same time reduce time and overall "attachment" player have to this certain game.

    3. Basing only on dev created content + above "increased accesibility, streamline and convenience" made majority of players to treat mmorpg's in same way as single player or normal multiplayer games.  They start playing, complete game and then go on to play next game.  Drastic change compared to how mmorpg's were treated by playerbase just few years ago, even WoW was treated like that (that started to change somewhere in WoTLK times).

    Developers & producers decisions made mmorpg's (at least themepark mmorpg's) lose "special status" they had and while that allowed to expand playerbase at same time that made genre suffer, cause once players see that content is finished they just go elsewhere.

     

    Certain actions to mitigate the problem (changing from subscription to subscription + cash shop (freemium) or trying to attach playerbase with heavy story focus (Swtor) or heavy raid / character build flexibility (Rift) will NOT work.

     

    Those are just 'hacks' and 'wprkarounds' they don't fix main problem. That's why they won't work.

    Just imho.

  • Fir3lineFir3line Member Posts: 767

    Originally posted by fenistil

    Developers & producers decisions made mmorpg's (at least themepark mmorpg's) lose "special status" they had and while that allowed to expand playerbase at same time that made genre suffer, cause once players see that content is finished they just go elsewhere.

    I think this part said everything I've been thinking about MMO's latelly and couldn't put into words

    "I am not a robot. I am a unicorn."

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