The game is sooo good, one of its biggest fans didn't even stay subbed past its first month, and here you're saying this game will retain 75% of its player base? Yeah...that makes sense.
One of its biggiest fans?
No not really personally I think its tied for WoW for my favorite MMO and with a few more months of polish it should easily over take it.
I just have other things going on in my life atm.
Also I predict 1 million subs which is only a 50% retention rating.
Yes one of its biggest fans...even called yourself a fanboi. Be that as it may. Let's stay on topic. Unless Bioware fixes a lot of stuff and I mean a lot. Christ I was a friends tonight and he was playing SW and he was on Tatooine, he had to do a quest in a canyon near some quest hub named Salara. All the mobs he tried to kill were bugged...every one of them. Turn out those same MOB's were bugged back in beta! How is it that something like that even made it past beta?
The game is still so buggy, what was Biowre doing while we beta players were reporting bugs? Like the 6in tall bug in cutscenes. What about the standing bug? <<< I'll bet that is still in game isn't it? What about nodes that when clicked on do not work. Waht about the items disappearing when you try to put them on your companion? <<< I'll bet that is still there as well. I should pull out my old list of bugs I made during beta. It was like upwards of 300 different bugs. I wonder how many are still in game?
LOL - During cutscenes does your characters face ever distort when they are leaning forward and their teeth look like they are about to fall out?
But I would be shocked if more than 10% of the intial box sales are still playing afetr 3 months. The games endgame was not tested and is in terrible conditon and there is little to no replayability.
I think people are over reacting about the drop off tomorrow.
Drop of tomorrow? I doubt it will be very big(it'll be a drop mind you but there are still people that didn't start playing until Christamas or just after). I suspect the next month will be more telling and the third the biggest. Third month is always when these games take their biggest hits. Saw it in all recent games from Warhammer up to Rift. MMO's are my hobby - I do not just play them.
In March if anything they'd get people back.
They said that they are adding a whole lotta crap in march, add that in with the next patch that includes (According to devs) the ablitity delay fix and multiple other fixes I don't see how a retention rate of about a million is so far fetched or bad honestly.
First Impression are everything in this genre now. They may have let some games slide and give them a pass in the past, but not any more. Bioware had a month to impress. Even huge fans of the game ahve up and left less than a month...one month...that is bad and I mean really bad. The game just launched and it can't hold some of its biggest fans. How do you expect it to hold onto your average gamer from WoW or Rift or Aion? It isn't. They'll go back to their old games. Sure this game will retain a certain number of its initial fans - but nowhere near the numbers people are saying.
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
Yep.
Go on...
SWG which was way more bugged then TOR managed 300k at its peak with 1.2ish million copies sold.
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
Yep.
Go on...
SWG which was way more bugged then TOR managed 300k at its peak with 1.2ish million copies sold.
Actually SWG had 375k pre-nge, got that from an inside source. Back then, most games had around 300k to 400k subs and that was good - back then. WoW was a fluke - it came at the right time, had a built in fan base with over 4 million Diable and Warcraft fans. From there it grew from word of mouth and lots and lots of advertisment.
Maybe you should wait for my next blog entry. I am going to list the 5 reasons why the most recent MMO's didn't become WoW killers(as some had hoped they would).
75-90% retention? That is so absurd on so many levels that just serves to prove how clueless analysts, the ones who can make or break a company stock, can be regarding MMOs.
Good insight on budget and costs though, didn't know they hired that many voice actors and had multiple studios/locations involved.
I don't know about EA but I wouldn't be any happy seeing such impossible expectations being set for their MMO.
Actually SWG had 375k pre-nge, got that from an inside source. Back then, most games had around 300k to 400k subs and that was good - back then. WoW was a fluke - it came at the right time, had a built in fan base with over 4 million Diable and Warcraft fans. From there it grew from word of mouth and lots and lots of advertisment.
Maybe you should wait for my next blog entry. I am going to list the 5 reasons why the most recent MMO's didn't become WoW killers(as some had hoped they would).
Hmm. Highest reported figure was 300k subs iirc. 375k sounds... questionable, especially since no figures anywhere near that amount were reported, and peaks are always reported in this business.
You didn't mean right before NGE, right? Because with the arrival of EQ2 and WoW, SWG was bleeding subs like hell, as pretty much all MMO's like EQ and others did too.
... OT, I checked that OP article earlier, it had no source or any explanation how they came up with those figures... again -_-
Actually SWG had 375k pre-nge, got that from an inside source.
It didn't, don't lie please.
Inside sources stated (Was it smedly?) they had around 300k pre NGE and it was dropping. Sorry if I take the word of the guy who ran the company over you.
But even if it did you just proved my point even more.
If something with such little content can luck out and get almost 400k subs (According to you) why can't swtor?
Because frankly Crafting space combat and a little RP elements was really all SWG had going for it besides the IP.
But I would be shocked if more than 10% of the intial box sales are still playing afetr 3 months. The games endgame was not tested and is in terrible conditon and there is little to no replayability.
I think people are over reacting about the drop off tomorrow.
Drop of tomorrow? I doubt it will be very big(it'll be a drop mind you but there are still people that didn't start playing until Christamas or just after). I suspect the next month will be more telling and the third the biggest. Third month is always when these games take their biggest hits. Saw it in all recent games from Warhammer up to Rift. MMO's are my hobby - I do not just play them.
3rd month for swtor is the release of the new content update, new planet, legacy system, ranked warzone, new ops and flashpoint, guild banks. etc etc. i dont think we will see a drop in the 3rd month
Actually SWG had 375k pre-nge, got that from an inside source.
It didn't, don't lie please.
Inside sources stated (Was it smedly?) they had around 300k pre NGE and it was dropping. Sorry if I take the word of the guy who ran the company over you.
But even if it did you just proved my point even more.
If something with such little content can luck out and get almost 400k subs (According to you) why can't swtor?
Because frankly Crafting space combat and a little RP elements was really all SWG had going for it besides the IP.
Well unless you can provide a direct quote from Smedley, I'll go by what my friend that use to work at SOE told me.
But I would be shocked if more than 10% of the intial box sales are still playing afetr 3 months. The games endgame was not tested and is in terrible conditon and there is little to no replayability.
I think people are over reacting about the drop off tomorrow.
Drop of tomorrow? I doubt it will be very big(it'll be a drop mind you but there are still people that didn't start playing until Christamas or just after). I suspect the next month will be more telling and the third the biggest. Third month is always when these games take their biggest hits. Saw it in all recent games from Warhammer up to Rift. MMO's are my hobby - I do not just play them.
3rd month for swtor is the release of the new content update, new planet, legacy system, ranked warzone, new ops and flashpoint, guild banks. etc etc. i dont think we will see a drop in the 3rd month
Everything you say might be true. But let's look in a year.
I'll hold to my 500k-750k subs. They designed this game to steal a sizeable chunk of gamers from WoW. That was their goal. I do not sse them succeeding in any way, shape or form. Let's not kid ourselves -- EA wants to go toe-to-toe with Activision, and in this instance, I think they will fail miserably.
The also went toe-to-toe with Activision on the COD franchise, and I have to at least give them the nod for attempting to provide a product that stood somewhat of a legitimate chance in BF3. True, that game has its own problems, but they built a new engine, supported the PC community, and tried to do something better. TOR just reeks of cut corners and shoddy programing. I think that will eventually crush any hopes of it being a major player in the MMO genre.
Just my thoughts, of course. But certainly history is on my side.
No way SWTOR will keep that kind of sway; and no way can any analyst truly make professional predictions, when the userbase is still in the *Ooo Shiney* state it's in now.
wonder how much the guy got in a backhand to say that..what a joke.i think its amazing how these knobs just pull these figures out of there hat.
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
You just used facebook likes as a credible statistic, good job.
But I would be shocked if more than 10% of the intial box sales are still playing afetr 3 months. The games endgame was not tested and is in terrible conditon and there is little to no replayability.
I think people are over reacting about the drop off tomorrow.
Drop of tomorrow? I doubt it will be very big(it'll be a drop mind you but there are still people that didn't start playing until Christamas or just after). I suspect the next month will be more telling and the third the biggest. Third month is always when these games take their biggest hits. Saw it in all recent games from Warhammer up to Rift. MMO's are my hobby - I do not just play them.
3rd month for swtor is the release of the new content update, new planet, legacy system, ranked warzone, new ops and flashpoint, guild banks. etc etc. i dont think we will see a drop in the 3rd month
Everything you say might be true. But let's look in a year.
I'll hold to my 500k-750k subs.
Second most subbed to MMO (In the West) even if it has your worst case scenario
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
You just used facebook likes as a credible statistic, good job.
Why not everyone uses facebook to like all kinds of crap and I thus I think its a better way to go by whos interested in this game compared to MMORPG.com.
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
You just used facebook likes as a credible statistic, good job.
Why not everyone uses facebook to like all kinds of crap and I thus I think its a better way to go by whos interested in this game compared to MMORPG.com.
But I would be shocked if more than 10% of the intial box sales are still playing afetr 3 months. The games endgame was not tested and is in terrible conditon and there is little to no replayability.
I think people are over reacting about the drop off tomorrow.
Drop of tomorrow? I doubt it will be very big(it'll be a drop mind you but there are still people that didn't start playing until Christamas or just after). I suspect the next month will be more telling and the third the biggest. Third month is always when these games take their biggest hits. Saw it in all recent games from Warhammer up to Rift. MMO's are my hobby - I do not just play them.
3rd month for swtor is the release of the new content update, new planet, legacy system, ranked warzone, new ops and flashpoint, guild banks. etc etc. i dont think we will see a drop in the 3rd month
Everything you say might be true. But let's look in a year.
I'll hold to my 500k-750k subs.
Second most subbed to MMO (In the West) even if it has your worst case scenario
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
You just used facebook likes as a credible statistic, good job.
Why not everyone uses facebook to like all kinds of crap and I thus I think its a better way to go by whos interested in this game compared to MMORPG.com.
But I would be shocked if more than 10% of the intial box sales are still playing afetr 3 months. The games endgame was not tested and is in terrible conditon and there is little to no replayability.
I think people are over reacting about the drop off tomorrow.
Drop of tomorrow? I doubt it will be very big(it'll be a drop mind you but there are still people that didn't start playing until Christamas or just after). I suspect the next month will be more telling and the third the biggest. Third month is always when these games take their biggest hits. Saw it in all recent games from Warhammer up to Rift. MMO's are my hobby - I do not just play them.
3rd month for swtor is the release of the new content update, new planet, legacy system, ranked warzone, new ops and flashpoint, guild banks. etc etc. i dont think we will see a drop in the 3rd month
Everything you say might be true. But let's look in a year.
I'll hold to my 500k-750k subs.
Second most subbed to MMO (In the West) even if it has your worst case scenario
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
You just used facebook likes as a credible statistic, good job.
Why not everyone uses facebook to like all kinds of crap and I thus I think its a better way to go by whos interested in this game compared to MMORPG.com.
I remember when that Rift number was over 600k. Not so high now is it.
SWTOR loses half ofs its player base like RIFT and...
Once again around 1 million subs when all is said and done.
I fail to see how this is so far fetched teala.
I am basically say that this game will see no growth and even out at a million players. Do you hate the number 1 million.
No...I think you are over-estimating that is all. If this game retains a million, cool. I just do not see it happening. I can see between 300k to 400k best. Based on my experience and knowledge of this genre. Just my opinion.
Comments
I was thinking absolutely ridiculous but historic works.
Yes one of its biggest fans...even called yourself a fanboi. Be that as it may. Let's stay on topic. Unless Bioware fixes a lot of stuff and I mean a lot. Christ I was a friends tonight and he was playing SW and he was on Tatooine, he had to do a quest in a canyon near some quest hub named Salara. All the mobs he tried to kill were bugged...every one of them. Turn out those same MOB's were bugged back in beta! How is it that something like that even made it past beta?
The game is still so buggy, what was Biowre doing while we beta players were reporting bugs? Like the 6in tall bug in cutscenes. What about the standing bug? <<< I'll bet that is still in game isn't it? What about nodes that when clicked on do not work. Waht about the items disappearing when you try to put them on your companion? <<< I'll bet that is still there as well. I should pull out my old list of bugs I made during beta. It was like upwards of 300 different bugs. I wonder how many are still in game?
LOL - During cutscenes does your characters face ever distort when they are leaning forward and their teeth look like they are about to fall out?
Retain 75% or even 60% - not going to happen.
tor has under 250k subs, so the "prediction" is 50% off and the actual numbers is something like 25-40%
First Impression are everything in this genre now. They may have let some games slide and give them a pass in the past, but not any more. Bioware had a month to impress. Even huge fans of the game ahve up and left less than a month...one month...that is bad and I mean really bad. The game just launched and it can't hold some of its biggest fans. How do you expect it to hold onto your average gamer from WoW or Rift or Aion? It isn't. They'll go back to their old games. Sure this game will retain a certain number of its initial fans - but nowhere near the numbers people are saying.
Hm This will mean nothing but.
http://www.facebook.com/starwarstheoldrepublic
http://www.swtor.com/media/trailers/coming-star-wars-old-republic
http://www.facebook.com/questions/10150504120398860/?qa_ref=ssp
The first shows over 1.2 Million facebook likes, The second shows what they plan to add in 1.2 and the third is a poll of how many people want to play vs how mnay people played/ing.
that poll was taken yesterday if its anything to go by 1/4 (Assuming the game sold 2 million copies as of now) want to play the game, assuming that come jan 22 that 1/4 of the SWTOR player base magically decide to unsub, then the 1/4 that want to play will be there to take their place.
So Ill ask again, Does around 1 million subs (Give or take 200k) sound that far fetched?
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
Yep.
Go on...
SWG which was way more bugged then TOR managed 300k at its peak with 1.2ish million copies sold.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
Actually SWG had 375k pre-nge, got that from an inside source. Back then, most games had around 300k to 400k subs and that was good - back then. WoW was a fluke - it came at the right time, had a built in fan base with over 4 million Diable and Warcraft fans. From there it grew from word of mouth and lots and lots of advertisment.
Maybe you should wait for my next blog entry. I am going to list the 5 reasons why the most recent MMO's didn't become WoW killers(as some had hoped they would).
75-90% retention? That is so absurd on so many levels that just serves to prove how clueless analysts, the ones who can make or break a company stock, can be regarding MMOs.
Good insight on budget and costs though, didn't know they hired that many voice actors and had multiple studios/locations involved.
I don't know about EA but I wouldn't be any happy seeing such impossible expectations being set for their MMO.
Hmm. Highest reported figure was 300k subs iirc. 375k sounds... questionable, especially since no figures anywhere near that amount were reported, and peaks are always reported in this business.
You didn't mean right before NGE, right? Because with the arrival of EQ2 and WoW, SWG was bleeding subs like hell, as pretty much all MMO's like EQ and others did too.... OT, I checked that OP article earlier, it had no source or any explanation how they came up with those figures... again -_-
The will probably end up somewhere between 500k-750k subs.
That's probably the best they can hope for, given the hero engine bugs and how absolutely wretched the PVP is.
that anal...list ..............didnt play ilum as republic i guess? :P
It didn't, don't lie please.
Inside sources stated (Was it smedly?) they had around 300k pre NGE and it was dropping. Sorry if I take the word of the guy who ran the company over you.
But even if it did you just proved my point even more.
If something with such little content can luck out and get almost 400k subs (According to you) why can't swtor?
Because frankly Crafting space combat and a little RP elements was really all SWG had going for it besides the IP.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
3rd month for swtor is the release of the new content update, new planet, legacy system, ranked warzone, new ops and flashpoint, guild banks. etc etc. i dont think we will see a drop in the 3rd month
Well unless you can provide a direct quote from Smedley, I'll go by what my friend that use to work at SOE told me.
Everything you say might be true. But let's look in a year.
I'll hold to my 500k-750k subs. They designed this game to steal a sizeable chunk of gamers from WoW. That was their goal. I do not sse them succeeding in any way, shape or form. Let's not kid ourselves -- EA wants to go toe-to-toe with Activision, and in this instance, I think they will fail miserably.
The also went toe-to-toe with Activision on the COD franchise, and I have to at least give them the nod for attempting to provide a product that stood somewhat of a legitimate chance in BF3. True, that game has its own problems, but they built a new engine, supported the PC community, and tried to do something better. TOR just reeks of cut corners and shoddy programing. I think that will eventually crush any hopes of it being a major player in the MMO genre.
Just my thoughts, of course. But certainly history is on my side.
wonder how much the guy got in a backhand to say that..what a joke.i think its amazing how these knobs just pull these figures out of there hat.
You just used facebook likes as a credible statistic, good job.
Second most subbed to MMO (In the West) even if it has your worst case scenario
What a failure...
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
Why not everyone uses facebook to like all kinds of crap and I thus I think its a better way to go by whos interested in this game compared to MMORPG.com.
Here is RIFTs facebook http://www.facebook.com/RIFTgame.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
I remember when that Rift number was over 600k. Not so high now is it.
Absolutely.
Given the amount of resources invested.
SWTOR loses half ofs its player base like RIFT and...
Once again around 1 million subs when all is said and done.
I fail to see how this is so far fetched teala.
I am basically say that this game will see no growth and even out at a million players. Do you hate the number 1 million.
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
Then what do you think is the successfull number?
I don't care about innovation I care about fun.
No...I think you are over-estimating that is all. If this game retains a million, cool. I just do not see it happening. I can see between 300k to 400k best. Based on my experience and knowledge of this genre. Just my opinion.