More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers 2/1/12 [EA Conf Call Discussion Thread]

altair4 · February 2012

EA are just playing the numbers in their favor. Every company does this. All they say is they have over 1.7mil active subs, active means they still have playtime, free or paid by gamecard or sub. This 1.7mil is probably very close to the exact number since they want this number to be as high as possible.

Then they say they have sold over 2mil copies. Here is where things get interesting. Saying 2mil and then showing 1.7mil active subs shows a very healthy subscription rate, even if it's just over a month since launch.

The thing is that estimated sales from vgachartz is saying that about 2mil copies are sold without accounting for digital sales. Other sources has also mentioned around 2mil copies sold. Then we have a number from EA saying about 40% of the copies are sold from digital downloads. No one has had access to the digital download numbers or even been able to estimate em. If I was to guess I would say it's likely that SWTOR has sold about 2.5mil copies total with digital incl. Suddenly the 1.7mil active subs means a very different retention rate.

Not saying this is how it is, I'm just saying that they will always play the numbers to their favor and the only number you can be sure of is the 1.7mil active subs. Which is a very good number, just dont assume it's 1.7mil/2mil cause they are playing the numbers, be sure of it.

dubyahite · February 2012

Yep Altair. That's what I was saying earlier.

One point though, if VG is accurate Bioware said 40% digital. That means about 2.8 million box sales.

I don't think they massaged the 1.7 million. What people are missing is the way they massaged the over 2 million.

1.7 looks like a great retention rate considering about 2 million sales.

Looks a bit more average (but still decent) counting 2.8 million sales.

I'm guessing 50-60% retention.

adam_nox · February 2012

If I'm interpreting everything correctly, they said most of the 1.7 had switched to pay, not all of them, not almost all of the, but most. That could just be a little over half, could be 2/3, could be anything because language like that isn't binding, but let's say it's 2/3. 1.1 million people paying for a second month is good, but that's still about half of people who bought the game at or near release NOT subbing.

MartinZ · February 2012

Originally posted by adam_nox
If I'm interpreting everything correctly, they said most of the 1.7 had switched to pay, not all of them, not almost all of the, but most. That could just be a little over half, could be 2/3, could be anything because language like that isn't binding, but let's say it's 2/3. 1.1 million people paying for a second month is good, but that's still about half of people who bought the game at or near release NOT subbing.

Yep. SWTOR is essentially doing slightly better than WAR did after its first month.

UsualSuspect · February 2012

The way I read it is that they sold over 2 million boxes. To play the game you need to create a subscription, which would mean - ignoring people who didn't bother - that they also once had over 2 million subscriptions. But by the date of this report, 31st, they only had 1.7 million subscriptions, which means within 10 days of its release the game had already lost over 300,000 subscribers.

Most people will wait until a date closer to the end of the 30 days to cancel their subscription, so really you're looking at a figure a lot less than 1.7 million once the Q4 report turns up. If you stick with the trend and have 300,000 drop out each 10 days then you're looking at more like 1 million come the end of the first month. And to be honest, I think that's overestimating judging by the ghost towns we call servers.

tixylix · February 2012

I want to see the numbers in month 3, then I'll believe it is holding it's subs.

Right now most of them are probably people in their first month.

Bunks · February 2012

Originally posted by UsualSuspect
The way I read it is that they sold over 2 million boxes. To play the game you need to create a subscription, which would mean - ignoring people who didn't bother - that they also once had over 2 million subscriptions. But by the date of this report, 31st, they only had 1.7 million subscriptions, which means within 10 days of its release the game had already lost over 300,000 subscribers.

Most people will wait until a date closer to the end of the 30 days to cancel their subscription, so really you're looking at a figure a lot less than 1.7 million once the Q4 report turns up. If you stick with the trend and have 300,000 drop out each 10 days then you're looking at more like 1 million come the end of the first month. And to be honest, I think that's overestimating judging by the ghost towns we call servers.

or it could suggest 300k units still in inventories. They did say they would brick and morter sales. 2 million include all units shipped out or on order, but not all of them could be sold. Also, that would include returns and duplicates that many who ordered a box cancelled to get it online, were charged for two copies.

smh_alot · February 2012

Originally posted by MartinZ

Originally posted by adam_nox

If I'm interpreting everything correctly, they said most of the 1.7 had switched to pay, not all of them, not almost all of the, but most. That could just be a little over half, could be 2/3, could be anything because language like that isn't binding, but let's say it's 2/3. 1.1 million people paying for a second month is good, but that's still about half of people who bought the game at or near release NOT subbing.

Yep. SWTOR is essentially doing slightly better than WAR did after its first month.

"double as good" seems more realistic: double the sales (and more), samelike retention like other AAA MMO's means double the players and subs as a WAR or Rift - as comparative tracking sites seem to confirm.

pharazonic · February 2012

LOL WoW killer indeed.

(in case you missed the sarcasm, it is not)

Gagelish · February 2012

Originally posted by UsualSuspect
The way I read it is that they sold over 2 million boxes. To play the game you need to create a subscription, which would mean - ignoring people who didn't bother - that they also once had over 2 million subscriptions. But by the date of this report, 31st, they only had 1.7 million subscriptions, which means within 10 days of its release the game had already lost over 300,000 subscribers.

Most people will wait until a date closer to the end of the 30 days to cancel their subscription, so really you're looking at a figure a lot less than 1.7 million once the Q4 report turns up. If you stick with the trend and have 300,000 drop out each 10 days then you're looking at more like 1 million come the end of the first month. And to be honest, I think that's overestimating judging by the ghost towns we call servers.

No matter how many times I read this story on how many different mmo sites it will always shock me how much trouble people have reading this report.

"We currently have a little over 1.7 million active subscribers." That sentence is separate from the earnings report and is not accurate as of 12/31, it's accurate as of 2/1. Today. So they've lost 300k in months and 11 days or so. That says nothing about it's future, it says nothing about the eventual success or failure or whatever in between of the game. It just says that. But what it doesn't say, is, as of 12/31. It's as of the call.

dubyahite · February 2012

@bunk they said sell through in the document specifically. That means a customer actually not it.

The discrepancy in numbers is people who have cancelled.

Bioware confirmed that the numbers are CURRENT. Not from December and that cancelled subs AREN'T counted.

MartinZ · February 2012

WAR had about 800k subs after the first month. EA has stated SWTOR has a majority of the 1.7 million active players paying for a subscription. The number isn't anywhere near 1.6 or 1.7 million for people paying to play the game because EA has stated the number includes both old and new players still in their first month.

If you try to push the current paying subs up to 1.7 million you are effectively saying no one new is buying this game which is even worse for the health and outlook of the game.

According to EA themselves:

1.7 million == Paying Subs + New Free Month Subs

You try to claim paying subs is close to 1.7 million and you are also claiming the number of new people buying the game and logging on is almost zero.

The actual paying sub number has to be in the 900k to maybe 1.1 million range. Much higher than that and you are saying the game is barely growing new players. All of which put SWTOR slightly ahead of WAR for first month paying subscribers.

Cavod · February 2012

Some of you guys just want this game to fail too much, it's unhealthy.

No matter what 'skew' or 'spin' is put on this info, fact is the game is healthy and doing a lot better than some people hoped, the 'haters' can't handle it. Conjectures aren't facts and facts aren't conjecture, we must keep them straight if we are to have meaningful discussions here.

Please, get over it and move on. It'll do us all some good. Maybe then I can stop sounding like the fanboy I am not.

teoyaomiqui · February 2012

I don't see anything, that anywhere them say that it is current number. Q3 ends in december, no company will report Q3 + A little of Q4, it says nowhere that it is current sub number

"Star Wars(R): The Old Republic(TM) has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through more than 2 million units in a little over one month. "

How can one possible think that it is current subscribtion number? It has generated 1.7 million subscribers, sold 2 million unites in little over a month.

Lets say game shuts down in march, you still can say that the game generated 1.7 million subscribers, no one has said that the game has 1.7 million subscribers. Saying i've earned 5000 millions means does not mean that I have 5000 millions, it means I earned 5000 millions. Saying that i've generated 1 kill of poo, doesn't mean that i've put it in my fridge and i have it. If a generator generates 500 kwt doesn't mean that they are preserved in an accumulator.

To generate does not mean to have or to retain.

I mean guys, english is not my first language, i live in Ukraine, but even I can comprehend such an easy word as 'generate'.

MartinZ · February 2012

Yep, 'generated' was the red flag that caused people to immediately suspect and then later confirm the 1.7 million numbers wasn't actual current paying subscribers.

teoyaomiqui · February 2012

Originally posted by Gagelish

Originally posted by UsualSuspect

The way I read it is that they sold over 2 million boxes. To play the game you need to create a subscription, which would mean - ignoring people who didn't bother - that they also once had over 2 million subscriptions. But by the date of this report, 31st, they only had 1.7 million subscriptions, which means within 10 days of its release the game had already lost over 300,000 subscribers.

Most people will wait until a date closer to the end of the 30 days to cancel their subscription, so really you're looking at a figure a lot less than 1.7 million once the Q4 report turns up. If you stick with the trend and have 300,000 drop out each 10 days then you're looking at more like 1 million come the end of the first month. And to be honest, I think that's overestimating judging by the ghost towns we call servers.

No matter how many times I read this story on how many different mmo sites it will always shock me how much trouble people have reading this report.

"We currently have a little over 1.7 million active subscribers." That sentence is separate from the earnings report and is not accurate as of 12/31, it's accurate as of 2/1. Today. So they've lost 300k in months and 11 days or so. That says nothing about it's future, it says nothing about the eventual success or failure or whatever in between of the game. It just says that. But what it doesn't say, is, as of 12/31. It's as of the call.

Learn to read, its not we have it is we generated.

dubyahite · February 2012

Originally posted by teoyaomiqui

Originally posted by Gagelish

Originally posted by UsualSuspect

The way I read it is that they sold over 2 million boxes. To play the game you need to create a subscription, which would mean - ignoring people who didn't bother - that they also once had over 2 million subscriptions. But by the date of this report, 31st, they only had 1.7 million subscriptions, which means within 10 days of its release the game had already lost over 300,000 subscribers.

Most people will wait until a date closer to the end of the 30 days to cancel their subscription, so really you're looking at a figure a lot less than 1.7 million once the Q4 report turns up. If you stick with the trend and have 300,000 drop out each 10 days then you're looking at more like 1 million come the end of the first month. And to be honest, I think that's overestimating judging by the ghost towns we call servers.

No matter how many times I read this story on how many different mmo sites it will always shock me how much trouble people have reading this report.

"We currently have a little over 1.7 million active subscribers." That sentence is separate from the earnings report and is not accurate as of 12/31, it's accurate as of 2/1. Today. So they've lost 300k in months and 11 days or so. That says nothing about it's future, it says nothing about the eventual success or failure or whatever in between of the game. It just says that. But what it doesn't say, is, as of 12/31. It's as of the call.

Learn to read, its not we have it is we generated.

Looks like it says "We currently have" to me.

What was that you were saying about reading?

Edit to quote directly from the document: "--Star Wars: The Old Republic Has More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers"

aOh and lets throw in the definition of generate for you too. Why not?

gen·er·ate

[jen-uh-reyt]

Show IPA verb, -at·ed, -at·ing.

verb (used with object)

1.

to bring into existence; cause to be; produce.

2.

to create by a vital or natural process.

3.

to create and distribute vitally and profusely: He generatesideas that we all should consider. A good diplomat generatesgood will.

4.

to reproduce; procreate.

5.

to produce by a chemical process.

So tell me again, how does the word generate disprove anything?

MartinZ · February 2012

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/electronic-arts-reports-q3-fy12-financial-results-2012-02-01

"-- Star Wars(R): The Old Republic(TM) has generated 1.7 million active subscribers"

Direct quote from the OP's link.

Gagelish · February 2012

Originally posted by teoyaomiqui

Originally posted by Gagelish

Originally posted by UsualSuspect

The way I read it is that they sold over 2 million boxes. To play the game you need to create a subscription, which would mean - ignoring people who didn't bother - that they also once had over 2 million subscriptions. But by the date of this report, 31st, they only had 1.7 million subscriptions, which means within 10 days of its release the game had already lost over 300,000 subscribers.

Most people will wait until a date closer to the end of the 30 days to cancel their subscription, so really you're looking at a figure a lot less than 1.7 million once the Q4 report turns up. If you stick with the trend and have 300,000 drop out each 10 days then you're looking at more like 1 million come the end of the first month. And to be honest, I think that's overestimating judging by the ghost towns we call servers.

No matter how many times I read this story on how many different mmo sites it will always shock me how much trouble people have reading this report.

"We currently have a little over 1.7 million active subscribers." That sentence is separate from the earnings report and is not accurate as of 12/31, it's accurate as of 2/1. Today. So they've lost 300k in months and 11 days or so. That says nothing about it's future, it says nothing about the eventual success or failure or whatever in between of the game. It just says that. But what it doesn't say, is, as of 12/31. It's as of the call.

Learn to read, its not we have it is we generated.

I'm quoting directly from the, "Prepared Comments" released with the earnings report. The comments officially released by John Riccitiello. So, "have" is correct. Unless you want to find someone more senior than the CEO of the company to quote.

Gagelish · February 2012

Originally posted by MartinZ
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/electronic-arts-reports-q3-fy12-financial-results-2012-02-01

"-- Star Wars(R): The Old Republic(TM) has generated 1.7 million active subscribers"

Direct quote from the OP's link.

Just to be explicitly clear, that is the direct quote from the link on Market Watch. The actual document released uses the word, "have". This is honestly a ridiculous argument, but if we're going to have it at least take 2 seconds to make sure it's not a transcription error from the site.

dubyahite · February 2012

Originally posted by MartinZ
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/electronic-arts-reports-q3-fy12-financial-results-2012-02-01

"-- Star Wars(R): The Old Republic(TM) has generated 1.7 million active subscribers"

Direct quote from the OP's link.

It also says this" --Star Wars: The Old Republic Has More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers"

and this ""Star Wars: The Old Republic is developing a committed community of players with more than 1.7 million active subscribers and growing."

So it says that it has 1.7 million twice, but only says the word generated once.

Just for reference, generated just means that it created 1.7 million subscriptions. You're trying to twist words to fit you POV but it just looks a little desperate.

omome · February 2012

There are more people that care how many subs TOR has than there are people playing TOR...its crazy.

dubyahite · February 2012

Originally posted by MartinZ
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/electronic-arts-reports-q3-fy12-financial-results-2012-02-01

"-- Star Wars(R): The Old Republic(TM) has generated 1.7 million active subscribers"

Direct quote from the OP's link.

Let's throw this in for good measure too, since you're so fond of misinformation:

from the SWTOR press release:

"Already the fastest growing subscription MMO ever, Star Wars: The Old Republic has sold over 2 million copies, with a thriving base of over 1.7 million active subscribers"

http://www.swtor.com/news/press-release/20120201

bartoni33 · February 2012

I would just like to pop (get it..pop?) in here to say that this is the most inane bunch of garbage masking as a dicussion over nothing I have seen on these boards. 9 (NINE) pages of absolutely assinine posts about how many people are subscribed/bought/gifted/stole/grifted to a game that is barely out of its free month. Fuck me this is silly. Why am I even commenting on this shite? Who the fuck cares? If you like the game grats. If you don't grats. You are an individual that is capable of making your own decisions. Why care about what BW says are their sub numbers. The indignant outrage over this... whatever this is... is fucking we-tod-ed.

Also SERVERS ARE DOWN AGAIN!!!!! TOR IS GOING FtP TOMORROW!!!!!

teoyaomiqui · February 2012

Originally posted by dubyahite

Originally posted by teoyaomiqui

Originally posted by Gagelish

Originally posted by UsualSuspect

The way I read it is that they sold over 2 million boxes. To play the game you need to create a subscription, which would mean - ignoring people who didn't bother - that they also once had over 2 million subscriptions. But by the date of this report, 31st, they only had 1.7 million subscriptions, which means within 10 days of its release the game had already lost over 300,000 subscribers.

Most people will wait until a date closer to the end of the 30 days to cancel their subscription, so really you're looking at a figure a lot less than 1.7 million once the Q4 report turns up. If you stick with the trend and have 300,000 drop out each 10 days then you're looking at more like 1 million come the end of the first month. And to be honest, I think that's overestimating judging by the ghost towns we call servers.

No matter how many times I read this story on how many different mmo sites it will always shock me how much trouble people have reading this report.

"We currently have a little over 1.7 million active subscribers." That sentence is separate from the earnings report and is not accurate as of 12/31, it's accurate as of 2/1. Today. So they've lost 300k in months and 11 days or so. That says nothing about it's future, it says nothing about the eventual success or failure or whatever in between of the game. It just says that. But what it doesn't say, is, as of 12/31. It's as of the call.

Learn to read, its not we have it is we generated.

Looks like it says "We currently have" to me.

What was that you were saying about reading?

Edit to quote directly from the document: "--Star Wars: The Old Republic Has More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers"

aOh and lets throw in the definition of generate for you too. Why not?

gen·er·ate
[jen-uh-reyt] Show IPA verb, -at·ed, -at·ing.

verb (used with object)

1.

to bring into existence; cause to be; produce.

2.

to create by a vital or natural process.

3.

to create and distribute vitally and profusely: He generatesideas that we all should consider. A good diplomat generatesgood will.

4.

to reproduce; procreate.

5.

to produce by a chemical process.

So tell me again, how does the word generate disprove anything?

First of the all the quoated "We currently have" was written by a forum user, he put it instead of generated himself

and the Edit to quote directly from the document: "--Star Wars: The Old Republic Has More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers"

Is for the end of the Q3, December, 31. the header is

Electronic Arts Reports Q3 FY12 Financial Results

--Star Wars: The Old Republic Has More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers"

I wonder how can you possibly read it otherwise?

It is of Q3 result. So statements under this head line are true for the end of Q3, unless stated spesifically stated otherwise. Was it stated otherwise? Yes it was, but not in this statement, later in text:

- Star Wars(R): The Old Republic(TM) has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through more than 2 million units in a little over one month.

And what does it say? Game generated.

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