More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers 2/1/12 [EA Conf Call Discussion Thread]

Bossalinie

Reading this thread reminds me of the intro to the old X-Men cartoon on Fox where Professor X lead his team into a head on collision with Magneto and his villains.

fony

hey Maverick, what happened to the 3 to 4 million sales out the gate? where's the entire bioware fanbase migration?

NaughtyP

Whether the retention is 85% or much less, it doesn't really matter I don't think. Even if the retention rate over 3 months stays at 85% each much, the subs will continue to bleed unless they make up lost subs in box sales.

What matters is when they stop dropping and start growing (or staying constant at least) over a lengthy period (say 6 months or something). That'll give you a better indicator than months 1-3, I think.

NaughtyP

Originally posted by bossalinie

Reading this thread reminds me of the intro to the old X-Men cartoon on Fox where Professor X lead his team into a head on collision with Magneto and his villains.

I like the "electricity" animation coming from Wolverine's claws.

sanosukex

Originally posted by NaughtyP

Whether the retention is 85% or much less, it doesn't really matter I don't think. Even if the retention rate over 3 months stays at 85% each much, the subs will continue to bleed unless they make up lost subs in box sales.

What matters is when they stop dropping and start growing (or staying constant at least) over a lengthy period (say 6 months or something). That'll give you a better indicator than months 1-3, I think.

been said a million times before and look at mmo history months 3-6 is where the magic happens

fiontar

Originally posted by DaRoamer

Originally posted by Sagasaint

someone please explain me how they can have 1.7 active subs by 12/31/11, if noone had subbed back then as they all were in their free month?

Because people are wrongly assuming these numbers are from the end of the fiscal quarter.  They were revealed during the conference call and are confirmed to be current to today, not from Dec 31st.

No. Sorry, EA confirmed it included people who had entered a credit card, but hadn't yet been billed. Since the game requires you to either enter a time card code or select a subscription plan and enter your CC info to play the game at all, every active accoount is counted as a subscriber, unless they later go in and cancel their ongoing subscription.

I knew about 2 1/2 weeks in I was almost certainly not resubscribing, but I didn't actually hit "cancel" until a few days before the end of my free month.  At the end of the quarter, the game had only been post-release for about a week and a half and already 300,000 had hit "cancel". I'm going to say it's a very good bet they lost at least as many more between 1/1/12 and the end of the free month for people who started on or before the launch date.

MMOMainiac

Originally posted by fony

hey Maverick, what happened to the 3 to 4 million sales out the gate? where's the entire bioware fanbase migration?

/sigh

Is this the new thing now? I prove the haters wrong, so they start with personal attacks accusing me to be some apparently banned douche?

And the sad level ticks up a notch...

NaughtyP

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by NaughtyP

Whether the retention is 85% or much less, it doesn't really matter I don't think. Even if the retention rate over 3 months stays at 85% each much, the subs will continue to bleed unless they make up lost subs in box sales.

What matters is when they stop dropping and start growing (or staying constant at least) over a lengthy period (say 6 months or something). That'll give you a better indicator than months 1-3, I think.

been said a million times before and look at mmo history months 3-6 is where the magic happens

Yes, I agree. And 2012 will have a fair number of new MMO releases that are at or near AAA quality. The competition will be fierce in 2012!

MMOMainiac

Originally posted by fiontar

Originally posted by DaRoamer

Originally posted by Sagasaint

someone please explain me how they can have 1.7 active subs by 12/31/11, if noone had subbed back then as they all were in their free month?

Because people are wrongly assuming these numbers are from the end of the fiscal quarter.  They were revealed during the conference call and are confirmed to be current to today, not from Dec 31st.

No. Sorry, EA confirmed it included people who had entered a credit card, but hadn't yet been billed. Since the game requires you to either enter a time card code or select a subscription plan and enter your CC info to play the game at all, every active accoount is counted as a subscriber, unless they later go in and cancel their ongoing subscription.

I knew about 2 1/2 weeks in I was almost certainly not resubscribing, but I didn't actually hit "cancel" until a few days before the end of my free month.  At the end of the quarter, the game had only been post-release for about a week and a half and already 300,000 had hit "cancel". I'm going to say it's a very good bet they lost at least as many more between 1/1/12 and the end of the free month for people who started on or before the launch date.

You are completely wrong, the 1,7 million is as of yesterday, not Dec 31st, and does not include those that "opted out" (IE: did not resub or have an active account as of yesterday).

Once again, BioWare clarified that the 1.7 active members was as of yesterday, regardless of their status (resubbed/in 30 day trial, though they confirmed most were resubs).

sanosukex

Originally posted by NaughtyP

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by NaughtyP

Whether the retention is 85% or much less, it doesn't really matter I don't think. Even if the retention rate over 3 months stays at 85% each much, the subs will continue to bleed unless they make up lost subs in box sales.

What matters is when they stop dropping and start growing (or staying constant at least) over a lengthy period (say 6 months or something). That'll give you a better indicator than months 1-3, I think.

been said a million times before and look at mmo history months 3-6 is where the magic happens

Yes, I agree. And 2012 will have a fair number of new MMO releases that are at or near AAA quality. The competition will be fierce in 2012!

yes it will and i will enjoy the show.. and am actually happy to finnaly have a decent number of quality looking titiles as well

omome

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by NaughtyP

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by NaughtyP

Whether the retention is 85% or much less, it doesn't really matter I don't think. Even if the retention rate over 3 months stays at 85% each much, the subs will continue to bleed unless they make up lost subs in box sales.

What matters is when they stop dropping and start growing (or staying constant at least) over a lengthy period (say 6 months or something). That'll give you a better indicator than months 1-3, I think.

been said a million times before and look at mmo history months 3-6 is where the magic happens

Yes, I agree. And 2012 will have a fair number of new MMO releases that are at or near AAA quality. The competition will be fierce in 2012!

yes it will and i will enjoy the show.. and am actually happy to finnaly have a decent number of quality looking titiles as well

Forever the optimist...good on you.

Votan

I am sure this has been mentioned already but I did not read through the 30 something pages.  All this information is for the quarter ending 12/31/11.   No way to know on subs and retention until Apri/May when they release Q1 numbers. 

MMOMainiac

Originally posted by Votan

I am sure this has been mentioned already but I did not read through the 30 something pages.  All this information is for the quarter ending 12/31/11.   No way to know on subs and retention until Apri/May when they release Q1 numbers. 

All finiancial Data is as of Dec 31s....the active account info is as of yesterday. It was confirmed on their call. Please, please for the love of god, stop posting that the 1.7 mil number is as of the 31st.

From here on out, im gonna have a cow if I read another poster claim that the sub numbers are from the 31st...

Use the internets, they will tell you. I have even provided links....for the love of all that is holy.....

dubyahite

Let's try some math/logic here guys. This isn't perfect but it will give a good estimate of what's going on

According to VGChartz TOR sold 1.8 million copies before the 31st of Dec. Those people should be done with their free month by now.

Bioware says 40% digital. That would make about 2.5 million sales that should be past their free month.

So since then it's up to 2 million on Vgchartz (2.8 with digitalish)

So they have probably sold somewhere in the vicinity of 200 to 300k sales in January.

This would mean that 85 - 90 % of the people that bought the game are past their free month.

So look at the 1.7 million number. Only around 300k of those are still playing free.

Could very well be looking at 1.4 million people that payed their $15.


Very fuzzy numbers here, I'll admit, but it does show a good idea of what's going on.


If these numbers are close we are looking at 55-60% retention right now. (1.4 million of the initial 2.5 million are subbed up right now).

NaughtyP

Originally posted by omome

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by NaughtyP

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by NaughtyP

Whether the retention is 85% or much less, it doesn't really matter I don't think. Even if the retention rate over 3 months stays at 85% each much, the subs will continue to bleed unless they make up lost subs in box sales.

What matters is when they stop dropping and start growing (or staying constant at least) over a lengthy period (say 6 months or something). That'll give you a better indicator than months 1-3, I think.

been said a million times before and look at mmo history months 3-6 is where the magic happens

Yes, I agree. And 2012 will have a fair number of new MMO releases that are at or near AAA quality. The competition will be fierce in 2012!

yes it will and i will enjoy the show.. and am actually happy to finnaly have a decent number of quality looking titiles as well

Forever the optimist...good on you.

The one constant about the MMO genre is that a new game promising all kinds of goodies is always just a few months away from release!

Varking

I don't get why so many people get enjoyment out of seeing a game struggle.

MMOMainiac

Originally posted by Varking

I don't get why so many people get enjoyment out of seeing a game struggle.

Or get enjoyment ignoreing facts to imply a game is failing...

Anywhoo, im off to bed...and im fully expecting to wake up and find this thread at 70 pages with many more saying the sub numbers they gave were "as of the Dec 31st"...or people still quoting that incorrect misquote from MarketShare...Its what iv come to expect here....

SnarkRitter

Gratz to the fanboys, enjoy your short and "apparent" victory, we'll see who were right on march 31st, then again, maybe EA will choose not to release the subscribers number then so you guys can keep screaming "SWTOR is growing/not failing" on the top of your lungs.

Cheers

MartinZ

Originally posted by dubyahite



According to VGChartz 



 

LOL, made up numbers from some little kid's fake sales website...

 

dubyahite

Yeah yeah Martinz I know. Not the best source but they are far from made up.

They are actually very close to the sales numbers we are getting from EA in that document.

Again, the numbers aren't perfect, but theygo along with EA numbers very well. The over a million sales from earlier and the current over 2 million sales match up well.


Also, look at battlefield, the document says 10 million sales, that's exactly what Vgchartz shows as well.


It may not be perfect but my math shows around 60% retention, which makes sense.

I imagine about half of the current free month people will stick around also.

NBlitz

Give it a rest, people.
Bookmark this thread and let's see what's happened in 3 months after the initial surge.
I guess the screams for server mergers were made up.

dubyahite

Nice NBlitz. "give it a rest people!" "btw you're all wrong because of randoms on the forums saying they want mergers!"


I don't want to give it a rest, and apparently you don't either.

Unknown

Not bad. The game ultimately wasn't for me, but grats BioWare.

hellshanks

Originally posted by zakiyawow

Damn OP beats me to it. I know someone will post it and we will see different spin on the number to make it look like

1. EA is lying

2. Game is still failing bad

Hurry up guys...time to chew the report up

haha, you called it. Some bloke posted they were lying. It got locked by an admin for being BS. 

tristanryan

Originally posted by hellshanks

Originally posted by zakiyawow

Damn OP beats me to it. I know someone will post it and we will see different spin on the number to make it look like

1. EA is lying

2. Game is still failing bad

Hurry up guys...time to chew the report up

haha, you called it. Some bloke posted they were lying. It got locked by an admin for being BS. 

 

 

You're confused. Im "the some bloke". I didnt lie, and i didnt admit to lying. During my post of rage i typed COD instead of BF and already edited the post. It wasnt locked for a simple typo, it was locked because it was a duplicate posting.

 

More misinformation on MMORPG.com. Im shocked.