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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire - Part 2
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If you want to use logic to try and convert xfire data into actual subs, at least take what we know without these silly assumptions. The number of xfire dropped From 8,400 (Jan 31) -> 2900 (65%). Using the actual rate of subs lost with data provided from a 8,400-> 3,800 (55% = 24% actual), means SWTOR has lost about 29% of there actual subs MAX at this date. Which would still have the game sitting at over 1.2 million subs.
Although then you would have to account for the free month and such, meaning thes xfire numbers are completely useless until at least this period if over. Now, If you want to add a small margin of error for your assumptions, it still speaks to the fact that using xfire data, the game still has above 1 million subs. The amount of these subs hanging in there solely becuase of the 30 days free can only be speculated at.
Guess what?
No third party metrics will ever be able to tell you 'actual' subscriber numbers with any accuracy, simply because of the time between quitting and a subscription expiring.
I think it's safe to assume though, that once somebody stops playing, their subscription will follow some time later.
Why keep taking this argument back to subscription numbers?
I would love to have seen some "state of the game" numbers in the report such as concurrent players. Now that would be interesting.
So to reiterate, XFire is being used to observe a 'trend' in the population (players in game) of SWTOR.
This is NOT subscriber numbers, although the trend will ultimately determine subscriptions in the long run.
Hmm gee, look at that
SWTOR loses 1.1 million total subscribers since launch
I guess Xfire isn't as useless as everyone things huh?
Tell me about it. Seems BW even has troubling figuring it out.
>_>
Next please!
/pushes spacebar
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
OOOO SHIT, no you didn't!
So subs went from about 1.7m end of Jan = 7000ish XFire users to 1.3m end of March = 4000ish XFire users. Anyone care to tell me XFire is meaningless?Doesn't even seem like you even know how to read a chart? Xfire is at about 8,400 players at the end of Jan, not 7,000 like you claim. Xfire then shows about 3,800 players for 3/31.
So while Xfire showa a drop of around 55%, the actual rate dropped less than half that (24.5%).
So people who have been saying take xfire numbers with a huge grain of salt from the beginning were right on.
Sorry, I should have explained, I was trying to factor in both the fact we didn't have daily figures back then and the steep decline over the first month which relates to the fact everyone played daily. It is clear that SWTOR did not lose half it's playerbase during that free month. The grain of salt is not as big as you would like.So let me get this straight:
They talk about 1.7 million active subscribers, and this number has fallen, "due to casual and trial players cycling out of the subscriber base"?
Does that mean, that they are counting trial players as subscribers?
Does that mean, that the people, that got 30 days for free, but may already have uninstalled and never returned, also are counted? Maybe that was the reason for the 30-days-free at exactly this time: Extend all subscriptions, so they are counted in the report.
Not sure about the last one, but I find it quite concerning, that they seem to have been counting trial players as subscribers.
We will see about that. I trust X-fire more than that report.
The answers to your questions are yes and yes.
SWTOR vs. WoW time played on XFire
Yellow line = SWTOR's time played on XFire, 100% = WoW's time played on XFire
Both WoW's and SWTOR's numbers have experienced a huge drop. WoW has dropped 28% in last 3 weeks and SWTOR 39% in the same time.
SWTOR's announced subscribtion number on Dec 31 was 1,7 million subcribers. Assuming each subcriber would generate same amount of time played, WoW had 1,9 million subcribers at the start of the year. On March 31st SWTOR had 1,3 milloin subcribers, counting with the same assumption WoW had 5,2 milloin subcribers. This assumption is of course wrong, but it's still intresting to count.
lol. They're full of crap. What's worse, the churn rate only gets worse as an MMO ages. The players that adopt early will most likely develop into your hard-core base. They are the ones MOST INTERESTED in the franchise. The causuals come later. If the game gets a good 'buzz' from the hardcores. They try, some stick, but mostly they leave.
Take Eve Online. In their first couple of years, they retained 70% of people the first year. Now they lose 70% of people in the first month. WoW has the same problem. Very close to the same issue. The people started playing in the first year mostly stuck. Now they have these free trials and what-not. They mostly leave. But losing this many hardcores this fast. That's bad news.
Anyway, I like the spin. Lying at its finest. The bottom line is, and remains, 900,000 of the first 2,000,000 subs quit (not everyone was elible to quit. It may have been even less.) In 70 days.
45% of your population quit in 70-days. Let's wrap our minds around that. And then imagine how bad it would of been if there'd been 90 days available for sub-losses.... If the game launched December 2nd, the first quit day would have been January first. We'd have had the whole quarter. Not 7/9ths.
Would they have broken a million losses? I think they might of. But even if they didn't, they still set a record for most MMO losses in a quarter. Which is pretty impressive seeing as how they had 20 fewer days than WoW to accomplish it...
But beyond that, it will only get worse. Sales are abysmal. Retention is pathetic. The game is contracting and will ultimately be judged another failure.
Nope. There are a lot of reasons that subs will be over-stated to users.
First and foremost, subs are not players. Subs give you the right to be player. But a sub doesn't mean there is an active player behind it. It's an accounting measurement of future service obligations. That's all. It's not the player base.
Second, when players quit games they frequently leave active subs. Take WoW. As of 2010, when a WoW player quits, TWENTY-THREE PERCENT of them will leave their subscripion ACTIVE for upto a year. It could be longer, it's just the study ended at one year. You also have walk-away active, non-renewal subs. I'm one of those. When we quit, we quit. I've left time on SWTOR. I left time on LOTRO (quit a week after I did a quarterly renewal). I left time on DDO. I left time on Eve Online. I left time on Fallen Earth. In WoW that 47% of the player base that quits. You understand? Forty-seven percent, as of 2011, of WoW players that quit do so with sub-time left. They're not like the 23% on auto-renewal. But they do leave money on the table..
So, yes, subs > players. XFire doesn't track subs. It tracks active players, e.g. the player base. XFire will always, in any sub-based game, be a predictor of future subscription trends. But will not tell you subscriptions from an accounting perspective because, and this is important, active players and active subscriptions are not the same thing.
The trick is to figure out the correlations of XFIRE BASE to Subs and then determine the lag between quitting (XFire) and reporting.
Oh, and the drop rate isn't 24.5% like you calculated it. There are mutiple trends and saying 24.5% understates the true drop rate.
2.2 million units were sold of which 2.1 million of those units, if they were CC activated, the player could drop before March 31st. On March 31st, 1.3 million were left, of which 100K could not possibly have dropped leaving 1.2 million voluntary (possibly less but that's another issue) subscribers.
900K drops from 2,100K is a 43% drop (57% retention) rate. Not a 25% drop rate. You're measuring from the 1.7 million December number. But that drop rate is understated by 500K sales during the quarter ending March 31st, 2012.
Which is why EA says 'only 400K loss in subs for the quarter." Sounds a lot better than 'We lost 900K subs in 70 days" which is far, far more accurate a reflection of how many quit vis the total purchases.
I don't know why you keep updating this plot. It's pointless as of course the highest ratio will be at launch and then will go down until the population settles. This isn't nearly as interesting as the other plot.
END OF MARCH was 1.3m, I haven't managed to find the Q&A for Q4 yet.
I will correct myself, 1.3m was end of April and included those locked into a loveless marriage by the forcible imposition of a months free gametime.One of the analysts did ask about GW2 or maybe it was D3... asked about the potential impact of a big-name competitor that could launch in the next few months...
EA - "there will be no reduction in subs!"
If I as EA I would be shitting myself over MoP.
GW2 and Diablo 3 will give, at the very least, a hit in SWTORs activity. But Blizzard even giving a MoP release date will kick SWTOR in the teeth.
Hell, all Blizzard would have to do is offer 20% off MoP if you resub within a certain time and SWTOR will wither even further.
Does anyone ask tough questions such as:
1) Why are you including trial players, people on their first month or on a free week/month in your subscriber numbers?
2) Of the 1.3 million subs, how many were from question #1
3) What are each of the monthly income values for SWTOR in this reported quarter?
Xfire has malfunctioned.
I am unable to log in and Xfire saying my user (and others) is unknown or unable to retrieve data.
This is going to stuff up stats
Xfire killed by hackers?
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
2264 today.
Fast approach to the 2000 watermark, and much faster than I anticipated. We can reach it already this week, but probably early next week.
Yes it's going back to the descending trend started in february. 80% drop from max today. But doesn't look like this figures mean much if they have 1.3M subs.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
I would say those 1.3 million subs are counting the free 30 days they gave away. I got a fealing its more like 750k subs that might be playing if even that.
I think the people in this thread secretly love SWTOR but are afraid to admit it. That's why they can't stop talking about it.
That low figure was probably down to the malfunction which ruined the stats. You can not add to the stats if you can not log in.
The problem seemed to last for 6 hours looking at the first post to the time the Xfire Engineer posted saying it is all working again.
There was no change in position on the charts, so all games would have been affected equally. If there was no malfunction, and the figure was still 2264, then it probably would dropped in position.
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
I think they're simply bored at work at and school. So that is why they talk about all types of things on forums.
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.