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WoW Syndrome is dead

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  • ViadricViadric Member Posts: 151
    I wish I could play it now honestly. The new expansion is going to be bad ass. 
  • ViadricViadric Member Posts: 151
    Originally posted by iridescence
    Originally posted by Viadric
    Than the next  WOW expansion Warlords of Draenor will be released and everyone will flock back to it. Forgetting about this thread and any new concept to an mmorpg besides end game farming/raiding. 

    WoW's lost almost half it's subs in a couple of years. Doesn't that indicate to you that at least some people are a little tired of the formula?

     

    Personally I've never understand why so many people like WoW when there are many games out there with graphics and mechanics and worlds  that seem better to me  but I don't understand the appeal of other popular things like Justin Bieber or Twilight either.

     

     

     

     

     It's the number one most populated mmo with 7 million players strong. It has pretty much the most content in an mmorpg to date. Also it has balanced PVE and PVP. Raids are very well thought out and put together. PVP is always a blast to jump into. Most games have copied the crap out of it for these past 10 years. 

  • GuyClinchGuyClinch Member CommonPosts: 485

    Half of WoW's 'subs' are hourly players in Asia. We know this because 7.6 millon x 15 x 12 is around 1.3 billion and way more then Blizzard made from WoW - at least according to the GAAP revenue last I checked. The big problem for WoW is that its trending downward. It happened much slower then other MMOs but its a downward trend now. It peaked in early Wrath but EACH of the last expansions ended up with smaller amounts of people - both at their respective peaks and in the down time.

    Lots of speculation as to what the problem is but for me its the simple fact that I like alot of players do not want to play a last millenium style tab target MMO.

    To Blizzard's credit its the best tab target MMO out there - its VASTLY better then SWTOR, RIFT, and FFXIV which all feel like cheap knockoffs. It has a bigger world, better UI, better aesthetics, and better gameplay. But you can't get around that combat system that will have you scrambling through targets and getting hit by fireballs around walls. Its all done that way because back when EQ was king we didn't have bandwith. We do now - and we don't need to play these kinds of games anymore.

    GW2 is kinda of like 1.5 - a step in the right direction but games like TESO, WIldstar, shooters like Destiny are going to make WoW feel extremely outdated. Even the people that didn't really love GW2 or Tera or any of the other modern games have a hard time going back to tab target "spreadsheet' style combat..

    Only top of the line developers can really put the hurt on WoW. The problem for WoW is that these guys are moving into MMOs. GW2 is the first game that unlike SWTOR and the other crappy clones does things better then WoW. Certainly not everything - but some things (other then voice acting).

    Look for the hurt for Blizzard to continue. Yes i know they make alot of money but investors do not like watching their money shrink away. Right now Blizzard is just delaying the inevitable. Each year their game will look and play more and more like a relic till very few players play it at all. This is exactly what happened to EQ - its the same thing just on a bigger scale.

  • iridescenceiridescence Member UncommonPosts: 1,552
    Originally posted by GuyClinch

     

    To Blizzard's credit its the best tab target MMO out there - its VASTLY better then SWTOR, RIFT, and FFXIV which all feel like cheap knockoffs. It has a bigger world, better UI, better aesthetics, and better gameplay. But you can't get around that combat system that will have you scrambling through targets and getting hit by fireballs around walls. Its all done that way because back when EQ was king we didn't have bandwith. We do now - and we don't need to play these kinds of games anymore.

    All of this is subjective. I would *much* prefer playing any of those games over WoW (although I'm so sick of "the formula" that even enjoying Rift, which I used to like, is hard for me now.). I hate WoW's aesthetic and graphics and the fact that it is filled with dumb pop-culture references all over the place. There's nothing objectively "better" about WoW except maybe the amount of content but it obviously appeals to a lot of people's taste.   

     

     

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by GuyClinch

    Half of WoW's 'subs' are hourly players in Asia.

    False.

     

    You can just glance the stock reports to see that the income generated from China is more "experimental" (more so since MoP wasn't accept well...hmm, I wonder why). It's a drop in the bucket compared to even EU subs.

     

    The demographics based on revenues (which translates to subscriptions, since Blizzard hasn't released actual sub numbers in years, just net gains in profits) is the US market is the largest, followed by EU.

     

    During WotLK China's market share was much higher (as Blizzard did release account numbers then to show it), that's not the case ever since.

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857
    Originally posted by Kevyne-Shandris
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer
    Originally posted by Wizardry

    Really they are all Everquest clones,EQ2 did a lot better job of doing the same thing as Wow,first and with better lighting and graphics.EQ1 was really the premier flagship game for this genre,some might argue Ultima or even SWG but EQ1 was the game to judge all others.

    EQ Clones? There is a reason the term "WoW Clone" came about. EQ just wasn't as good as WoW. The Duryea Motor Wagon Company (Who?) was the 1st American automotive manufacturing company. Does that mean Ford cloned their stuff? Maybe, but it doesn't matter. They didn't do it better and don't deserve the recognition that Ford did. Ford simply surpassed them. Just because EQ was 1st on the scene doesn't mean they deserve anything because of it. Blizzard made a better game. 

     

     

    Scroll above.

     

    WoW is indeed an EQ clone even down to the behaviors EQ became infamous for. Duskwood just didn't appear out of thin air; that outland spider wasn't a new NPC, it's a hat tip to the Sinking Sands epic spider.

     

    WoW is more like EQ today, than EQ actually is today (that's what happens when devs leave a game and never evolve from the time they left it -- a syndrome gamers are aware of and label as "nostalgia"). WoW just suffers a worse case of it, as it's EQ moment is TBC.

     

    If WoW's story is about humans and orcs, let the WoW players know when the human part begins. As Blizzard's TBC and TBC orc/Thrall fondness borders on insanity (and when will they learn that definition of it with keep repeating TBC themes and now going back to TBC again, when it's the zone players keep saying they DON'T want to level through???).

    Oh, no, I get it. I know full well that WoW borrowed heavily from EQ. But my point is that we say WoW clone instead because EQ just wasn't as successful. Just because WoW was copied after EQ, doesn't mean that WoW wasn't better or that WoW didn't dwarf EQ. It did. If developers and gamers want a new game that uses that model, They are thinking about the market share and the experience that WoW brought, not EQ. Who came 1st doesn't really matter in this case, It's not even that WoW came along and simply improved on EQ with a little here and a little there. No, WoW smashed EQ (And everything else for that matter) I have played most of the AAA MMOs using that formula. Some were pretty good. But it's the WoW experience I compare them too, none of the others.

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857
    Originally posted by iridescence
    Originally posted by Viadric
    Than the next  WOW expansion Warlords of Draenor will be released and everyone will flock back to it. Forgetting about this thread and any new concept to an mmorpg besides end game farming/raiding. 

    WoW's lost almost half it's subs in a couple of years. Doesn't that indicate to you that at least some people are a little tired of the formula?

     

    Personally I've never understand why so many people like WoW when there are many games out there with graphics and mechanics and worlds  that seem better to me  but I don't understand the appeal of other popular things like Justin Bieber or Twilight either.

     

     

     

     

    Regarding the Subs that WoW lost over the years, It's not half, but still significant, What you are saying is, those gamers are tired of WoW. But not necissarily the WoW formula. How many are playing SWTOR or Rift, or FF14 or some other game from that model. We don't really know that. How many are waiting to try Wildstar etc etc?

  • ozmonoozmono Member UncommonPosts: 1,211

    People have been predicting WoW's death for along time now and they have constantly been proven wrong. Granted, things are starting to look a lot worse for WoW these days but this thread is about games that could be considered like WoW rather than just WoW and that'll likely take even longer to die. I'll go out on the limb here and say that WoW will still be around for a few years in the least and at most I wouldn't be surprised if it's around for a long time to come. As for WoW like games I think they'll be around for even longer and I cannot foresee them dieing off completely. I'm not saying it won't happen, I just cannot see it in the foreseeable future.

     

    All that said, I look forward to many of these "different" MMORPGs coming up and I think the future for MMORPGs is starting to look a lot brighter as a result. I imagine there'll be room for these games to live among WoW and the like rather than killing them off completely though.

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer

    Oh, no, I get it. I know full well that WoW borrowed heavily from EQ. But my point is that we say WoW clone instead because EQ just wasn't as successful. Just because WoW was copied after EQ, doesn't mean that WoW wasn't better or that WoW didn't dwarf EQ. It did. If developers and gamers want a new game that uses that model, They are thinking about the market share and the experience that WoW brought, not EQ.

    That was only possible due to one main thing: 2005 and SOE fumbled attempt to quell a mutiny in the EQII ranks (because upto that time EQII had the most players...over 500,000 [a lot of players at the time]). It was their John Romero moment, and the rest is history.

     

    BUT, WoW began as a EQ clone, as that was MMOs at the time other than Ultima to base a MMO upon. It was indeed EQ that launched what we regard as MMOs today, and it's legacy that it carries on today (and why I always talk about EQII whenever I can to show the similarities and differences).

     

    Credit needs to be due. WoW just was lucky, as they shouldn't have been #1 but for some really DUMB decisions by SOE at the time.

  • GuyClinchGuyClinch Member CommonPosts: 485

    "eports to see that the income generated from China is more "experimental" (more so since MoP wasn't accept well...hmm, I wonder why). It's a drop in the bucket compared to even EU subs."

    Moneywise its a drop in the bucket - absolutely. That's my point - Blizzard is manipuating their "sub' numbers by counting hourly players in asia. We know this because of math and revenue..Their quarterly revenue is slipping because the number of actual high paying customers is shrinking.

    http://www.wowwiki.com/WoW_population_by_country

    Last time we checked (2011) China had 3.2 million "subscribers'. This number has slipped we have no reason to believe the ratios have changed. Their have been asian losses and US/EU losses.

    This idea that World of Warcraft has this goliath 7.6 million na/eu playing base is just that a myth. Games like GW2 and SWTOR are actually quite popular. That's because the group of people that actually shell out 15 bucks a week is not nearly as large as Blizzard would have people believe.

    Like I said when you consider that Skyrim had 11 million in sales it would not surprise me at all if a big publishing house like zenimax could eclipse Blizzard current actual NA playing base in box sales. I'd wager that GW2 probably has..

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by GuyClinch

    Moneywise its a drop in the bucket - absolutely. That's my point - Blizzard is manipuating their "sub' numbers by counting hourly players in asia. We know this because of math and revenue..Their quarterly revenue is slipping because the number of actual high paying customers is shrinking.

    http://www.wowwiki.com/WoW_population_by_country

    Last time we checked (2011) China had 3.2 million "subscribers'. This number has slipped we have no reason to believe the ratios have changed. Their have been asian losses and US/EU losses.

    This idea that World of Warcraft has this goliath 7.6 million na/eu playing base is just that a myth. Games like GW2 and SWTOR are actually quite popular. That's because the group of people that actually shell out 15 bucks a week is not nearly as large as Blizzard would have people believe.

    Like I said when you consider that Skyrim had 11 million in sales it would not surprise me at all if a big publishing house like zenimax could eclipse Blizzard current actual NA playing base in box sales. I'd wager that GW2 probably has..

    Blizzard no longer reports account numbers in financials, so any data on accounts by others won't be factual. So you'll just be speculating on now 3 year-old data.

     

    Secondly, MoP wasn't accepted well in China, and the financials show it (no where near WotLK numbers in gross income, which refutes your idea of millions of players playing). It was received so badly Blizzard sent a team to investigate why (I told them why years ago...do they listen? No), and based on what they claim that fierce local MMO competition cut into WoW's popularity (just like why WoW is more popular locally in the USA).

     

    Thirdly, the bulk of gross income comes from the US subs, as anyone looking at the stock reports can just eyeball for proof. It's literally that black and white. China comes last in revenues.

     

    For your idea to work, the gross game income from China has to even meet the US income halfway -- it doesn't meet the EU's gross income level.

  • almalexiusalmalexius Member UncommonPosts: 180
    Well i picked up a copy of WoW for 7,50 euro's because there is nothing else to play so i don't know......

    WOW,eq2,Vanguard,WAR,LOTRO,AOC,Rift Aion, SWTOR, TERA.

    Currently playing GW2.

  • WicoaWicoa Member UncommonPosts: 1,637
    Originally posted by Kyleran

    Prove it.

    We'll see when they release.

     

    This is why I am tired of hype and pre-marketing.

    I tell you what Im most excited about and thats this new SOE deal normal sub = all games. Well not for me though cause Im an EU with an SOE account so I cannot play DCUO on it.

  • RetiredRetired Member UncommonPosts: 744
    WOW is far from dead, still has more subs than any game out there. If someone doesn't like WOW, don't play it or follow it, it's that simple. But to say it's dead is not true at all, only dead to the person who wants it to be dead. It's Sunbcription Numbers show otherwise.
  • GuyClinchGuyClinch Member CommonPosts: 485

    "For your idea to work, the gross game income from China has to even meet the US income halfway -- it doesn't meet the EU's gross income level."

    No. Its not my 'idea'.

    #1. Blizzard doesn't charge all its subscribers the same price so the revenues don't match. Let me emphasize this again - Blizzard has different pricing plans around the world. They make the bulk of their money from US subscribers - sure. But in China its something like 10 cents an hour to play. You can buy like 20 hour cards. Blizzard counts these guys as subscribers. These guys don't even buy the box - the internet cafe does. Its an entirely different business model. It makes very little money.

    #2. We know that Blizzard had about 3.2 million "subs' in China, a million or so in Korea, and 400,00k in Taiwan. The Asian market was a significant chunk of their sub 'numbers'. This has the effect of making the very successful WoW game look dramatically more successful then their competition. The reality quite a bit closer - as some of these MMOS don't bother releasing in China because it makes very little money. It does however pump up PR.

    I am not hater. WoW can make a good case that it was at its peak the greatest video game ever made. It's clearly on a downward trend now though. Blizzard isn't even trying to grow the game anymore - they are trying to (in the words of Bobby Kotick - 'exploit the IP.' That sounds worse then it is. They just wantt to give the remaining fans something to do.

    People aren't all going to 'run back' to WoW the vastly majority have already moved onto something else. Just like EQ though they will keep releasing expansions as long as people keep paying for em. WIth the actual costs of digital good being close to zero.. WoW is as close as you get to a legal money printing machine for a company..

  • SirPKsAlotSirPKsAlot Member Posts: 224
    Originally posted by GuyClinch

    #1. Blizzard doesn't charge all its subscribers the same price so the revenues don't match. Let me emphasize this again - Blizzard has different pricing plans around the world. They make the bulk of their money from US subscribers - sure. But in China its something like 10 cents an hour to play. You can buy like 20 hour cards. Blizzard counts these guys as subscribers. These guys don't even buy the box - the internet cafe does. Its an entirely different business model. It makes very little money.

    That's pretty funny

    image
    Currently playing: Eldevin Online as a Deadly Assassin

  • BetaguyBetaguy Member UncommonPosts: 2,629
    Originally posted by Torgrim

    Finally it took some years to bleed it to near death, now we have plenty of MMOs in the making that is not a WoW clone and for me I find this trend most interesting.'

    Go 2014

     

     I just re-activated my WoW account our server is booming when it is usually dead. I think the Expac and old school features will bring people back.

    "The King and the Pawn return to the same box at the end of the game"

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857
    Originally posted by GuyClinch

    These guys don't even buy the box - the internet cafe does. Its an entirely different business model. It makes very little money.

    What does "very little money" mean?

    How much is that in China?

    What's the difference in profits from the Asian market vs. the Western?

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Member CommonPosts: 10,910
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer
    Originally posted by GuyClinch

    These guys don't even buy the box - the internet cafe does. Its an entirely different business model. It makes very little money.

    What does "very little money" mean?

    How much is that in China?

    What's the difference in profits from the Asian market vs. the Western?

     

    Yeah, I mean if it's making very little money, I'd wonder if it's worth the effort to even try, given that they could conceivably spend the money they spent in Asia or the money they are currently spending in Asia to develop something else in the U.S. and make more money.

     

    Except they keep releasing things in Asia, spending the money to do so.  Seems like it's worth the effort to Blizzard to do it.

     

    **

     

    So 10 cents an hour times three million players averaging three hours a day time 365 days a year comes out to 438 million dollars.  That seems like a lot of money.

     

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • ViadricViadric Member Posts: 151
    It's pretty obvious WOW is the most populated mmo still with 7 million strong. Everyone acts like it's not alot for some reason and just lol.  No other MMO right now comes close to it. 
  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer
    Originally posted by GuyClinch

    These guys don't even buy the box - the internet cafe does. Its an entirely different business model. It makes very little money.

    What does "very little money" mean?

    How much is that in China?

    What's the difference in profits from the Asian market vs. the Western?

    It's "experimental" with Blizzard in China, because not only due to local saturation of MMOs in their country, government interference (e.g., how WotLK had to be changed to even be played in China as the Communist party didn't like the scourge as is). MoP had a scare with killing pandas, even in a game, which could be a capital offense in a country where even imagery of that sort is considered criminal.

     

    So even if there were millions of players to play games like WoW in China, the market is so volatile that in 1 year, those millions could simply vanish, as a new local MMO takes them in.

     

    The difference in the profits is the US dollar is more valuable. A USA subscriber makes more money for Blizzard than a guy paying for 4hrs of game play for a saturday, in local currency (Blizzard couldn't charge the same rate in China as it would be too expensive, especially with fees the cafes have to add to it for doing business).

     

    It's essentially trying to sell a brand in a foreign country, that is in favor of local brands. And seeing how the wind blows with what content.

  • sportsfansportsfan Member Posts: 431

    I saw Wildstar and I saw ES on line.

    These games are not going anywhere.

    I wonder what makes people believe they have anything in their badly shaped sleeves ?

    Lesson 1: I don't see  it, so nothing is there.

    Lesson 2: No one is going to pay subs for nothing.

    Lesson 3: History repeats itself every year in MMO land: nothing to be seen.

  • SirPKsAlotSirPKsAlot Member Posts: 224
    WoW is dead in the sense the doge meme is dead. It's old, over-played and people roll their eyes when it gets mentioned, but people still play it.

    image
    Currently playing: Eldevin Online as a Deadly Assassin

  • Kevyne-ShandrisKevyne-Shandris Member UncommonPosts: 2,077
    Originally posted by SirPKsAlot
    WoW is dead in the sense the doge meme is dead. It's old, over-played and people roll their eyes when it gets mentioned, but people still play it.

    Rover isn't dead yet, but he's getting old and his hip is bothering him...

     

     

    That's the infamous chart I was referring too, which was validated against the stock reports as being accurate, too. See the top left blue line? See the drop? That was from Ghostcrawler's "l2p" blog post -- sharpest drop in subs in WoW's history.

     

    What Blizzard believes and who they listen too doesn't jive with reality of that (nor did Dragon Soul).

  • daltaniousdaltanious Member UncommonPosts: 2,381
    Originally posted by Torgrim

    Finally it took some years to bleed it to near death, now we have plenty of MMOs in the making that is not a WoW clone and for me I find this trend most interesting.'

    Go 2014

     

    I do not see any problem cloning from the best. :-)

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