CrazKanuk said: [...] Yes, I can say that with some confidence since you really just need to spin up the numbers to realize that if the average spend per user is $100, anything above that increases the average.
[...]
At the moment the average spent per ship-hull is $116.69 ($109,093,857 / 934,893 ships sold).
You cannot imply any numbers on average spent per user on this base regarding SC. (but I give you a hint, it's more than $116)
Thanks for the correction. However, I'd still contend that the average spend per user is likely around the price of a new console game. You cannot apply it directly to SC, but the spending behaviour of gamers is well documented around the web, so there's plenty of, although speculative, good information about spending habits. SC may be a polarizing game, but I don't think it defies observed human behaviour. Actually, if you take a look at the SC KS page, I did some quick math and if we set up a break between $110 & $120 packages, 88% of backers spend below $110 and accounted for 58% of revenues. So that means that 12% of backers accounted for 42% of revenues.
So if we were to accept those same numbers across the entire campaign then 12% of people accounted for $46 million and 88% of people accounted for $64 million. That would mean about 550,000 people would averaging $116. So that is a baseline. Now, if we take the additional $46 million and spread it across 12% of the user base (based off the 550k number) that would give us 75,000 people spending $46 million, for an average of $613. Now if you're saying that the average ship price is $116 then that would mean an average of 5.25 ships per person over the $116 threshold, on average giving 944,000 ships total.
Also, it should be noted that of the 12% of users above $120 on the Kickstarter campaign, only 3% of those spent over $500, or about 0.5% of the overall player base. Also, only about 0.08% of people spent over $1000.
Again, this is purely speculative, but based on my experience, you could probably expect a margin of error here to be +/- 8-10% It could be a lower margin of error since we're talking about the exact same game, but over time. Either way, the point is that a large percentage of the game itself is funded by a small percentage of users.
Edit: Oh, and I only spent $30, btw, so if you're going to call me any names, I'll accept math knight, or logic warrior, or Excel-minator
Edit: Edit: Feel free to poke holes in these numbers if you've got any interesting tidbits to add. This was by no means a lengthy or involved number crunch.
CrazKanuk said: [...] Yes, I can say that with some confidence since you really just need to spin up the numbers to realize that if the average spend per user is $100, anything above that increases the average.
[...]
At the moment the average spent per ship-hull is $116.69 ($109,093,857 / 934,893 ships sold).
You cannot imply any numbers on average spent per user on this base regarding SC. (but I give you a hint, it's more than $116)
[lots of math-o-magics]
I agree with your assumptions. If you search around the web on monetization of online games targeting whales you will find that your numbers are pretty solid. Asian games specifically have this form of monetization down to an art form.
DISCLAIMER: This post is not intended to be negative towards the game or games mentioned it simply reflects the current state of the industry regarding monetization of games.
"It's pretty simple, really. If your only intention in posting about a particular game or topic is to be negative, then yes, you should probably move on. Voicing a negative opinion is fine, continually doing so on the same game is basically just trolling." - Michael Bitton Community Manager, MMORPG.com
"As an online discussion about Star Citizen grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Derek Smart approaches 1" - MrSnuffles's law
"I am jumping in here a bit without knowing exactly what you all or talking about." - SEANMCAD
That might be true but I do have a sense of humor.
I'm native german.
No one is perfect.
Wait, I thought you were German?
"Sean (Murray) saying MP will be in the game is not remotely close to evidence that at the point of purchase people thought there was MP in the game." - SEANMCAD
I havent followed this game closely but from the little I have seen it feels like one big fat waste of money. Im guessing these "developers" have been living off promised dreams and fantasies of folks wanting the next great space game.
When you start selling ships and dont have a game out for them, red flag! One of many.....game broke into two, missed deadlines, big boy threatening to ban "dinks". Glad Im watching from afar. Good luck to those who put down cash(rolls eyes).
Comments
Thanks for the correction. However, I'd still contend that the average spend per user is likely around the price of a new console game. You cannot apply it directly to SC, but the spending behaviour of gamers is well documented around the web, so there's plenty of, although speculative, good information about spending habits. SC may be a polarizing game, but I don't think it defies observed human behaviour. Actually, if you take a look at the SC KS page, I did some quick math and if we set up a break between $110 & $120 packages, 88% of backers spend below $110 and accounted for 58% of revenues. So that means that 12% of backers accounted for 42% of revenues.
So if we were to accept those same numbers across the entire campaign then 12% of people accounted for $46 million and 88% of people accounted for $64 million. That would mean about 550,000 people would averaging $116. So that is a baseline. Now, if we take the additional $46 million and spread it across 12% of the user base (based off the 550k number) that would give us 75,000 people spending $46 million, for an average of $613. Now if you're saying that the average ship price is $116 then that would mean an average of 5.25 ships per person over the $116 threshold, on average giving 944,000 ships total.
Also, it should be noted that of the 12% of users above $120 on the Kickstarter campaign, only 3% of those spent over $500, or about 0.5% of the overall player base. Also, only about 0.08% of people spent over $1000.
Again, this is purely speculative, but based on my experience, you could probably expect a margin of error here to be +/- 8-10% It could be a lower margin of error since we're talking about the exact same game, but over time. Either way, the point is that a large percentage of the game itself is funded by a small percentage of users.
Edit: Oh, and I only spent $30, btw, so if you're going to call me any names, I'll accept math knight, or logic warrior, or Excel-minator
Edit: Edit: Feel free to poke holes in these numbers if you've got any interesting tidbits to add. This was by no means a lengthy or involved number crunch.
Crazkanuk
----------------
Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
----------------
DISCLAIMER: This post is not intended to be negative towards the game or games mentioned it simply reflects the current state of the industry regarding monetization of games.
"It's pretty simple, really. If your only intention in posting about a particular game or topic is to be negative, then yes, you should probably move on. Voicing a negative opinion is fine, continually doing so on the same game is basically just trolling."
- Michael Bitton
Community Manager, MMORPG.com
"As an online discussion about Star Citizen grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Derek Smart approaches 1" - MrSnuffles's law
"I am jumping in here a bit without knowing exactly what you all or talking about."
- SEANMCAD
▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬
Have fun
- Albert Einstein
When you start selling ships and dont have a game out for them, red flag! One of many.....game broke into two, missed deadlines, big boy threatening to ban "dinks". Glad Im watching from afar. Good luck to those who put down cash(rolls eyes).