It's actually ~150k active subs Which is not a bad number but not as good as Turbine expected On a side note: if Jeff Anderson, the CEO of Turbine, claims that LotRO is the second largest MMO built in the US, then he must consider EverQuest II to be a korean game or something?!
Everquest 2 has a lot less active subs then most mmo's and surley Lotro.
in fact it only has 0.5% of the entire mmo market wich is still decent but nothing compaired to most others.
so anyhow.. 150k members have 4million chars??how does that work lol
150k subs doesn't have 4 million characters, Turbine claims that 4 million characters have been created since beta or something like that and you know what?
I have probably created over 40 characters on my World of Warcraft account, all of which are now deleted except one.
I'm not really sure about EverQuest II:s current active subs but they are on the same level or slightly higher than LotRO:s active subs so if EverQuest 2 has 0.5% of the market (your words not mine) then LotRO has the same or slightly less
Tolkien would not have liked how Bree is depicted in LotRO, in the book the tavern is the central place in the small and quaint town but in the game it is not a small town but a sprawling metropolis with three story buildings and the tavern has been pushed aside for more extravagant buildings
I'm not saying that he would turn in his grave he would just not like it
No-one denies that Turbine screwed the pooch on AC II. They almost did it again with DDO (they seem to have pulled it out, surprisingly). But lets be honest, both of those games had some serious warning signs from the get go. It's obvious that LoTRO is doing better than that. It's not going anywhere as much as everyone that got anally molested by Turbine in AC II, or is just pissed that LoTRO isn't pre-Trammel UO with hobbits or whatever the hell they are looking for might want to believe it.
As far as number of subs, I can pull a bunch of numbers out of my butt and use the latest ass math methods to come up with something totally different. It's a pointless debate. I suspect it's between 200K and 500K globally, but why bother to go into the ass math calculations that lead me to this conclusion, when it can easily be countered with equally speculative different ass math. I could in fact use ass math to show that either no-one is currently playing or that that 800K number is true. Once you start trying to use ass math in a debate, there's no end to it. Why not include rumors from "anonymous Turbine insiders" and messages from angels? No one knows but Turbine, end of story.
We speculate, because we can. We theorize, extrapolate, calculate, estimate because we have the intelligence to do so (well, some of us <--- no need to be a dick). We do all this and talk about it because we enjoy doing so.
Ok, sure. What I'm saying is don't expect the discussion to have any satisfying conclusion. It's nearly pure speculation. I could attack the OP and point out some flaws that I see in his reasoning (starting a pointless flame war), I could list my own shaky math (which would be just as speculative as OP), or I could leave the conversation where it will inevitably end, if we are going to be honest: No-one really knows but Turbine.
If you use guesses for your input, and then use an equation made up of guesses as to the relationships among the variables, how much faith do you have in the output? Personally, I have less than you guys seem to have in the OP.
It's interesting to note the the implied "anonymous tip from and insider" has also appeared in this thread. Will messages from angels be next?
One thing we can be pretty certain of, is if a company isn't publishing their actual sub numbers and obscuring the truth by releasing meaningless numbers like how many characters have been created they probably aren't very proud of the number.
A statement like this I can agree with . Whatever the true number is, it likely is less than what Turbine was hoping for. It's certainly not in the millions (!?!) as their adds implied.
800K is subs is obviously too high. Yet the press has accepted it as a fact. Therefore, whatever the real number is, Turbine certainly isn't going to be releasing in any time soon. Why disillusion their stock holders?
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
That would be Vanguard: Saga of Heroes, the shortest lived MMO ever. It lasted, what, 115 days before imploding in the black hole that is and was Brad McQuaid's so-called Vision? How many servers are they down to now? Anyone?
Shortest Lived? You are mistaken, Vanguard is not dead by any means. It lives on THANKS to SOE, and its resources. They are down to 5 servers, 1 being ffa pvp, and the one I play on (Sartok, pvp) always has people on it. Can't speak for the other servers, but theres always people to group and kill, and im only level 15.
Also they spent I would imagine, alot of resources... read FUNDS getting game update 2 (which made the game MUCH more stable, + new features) to live, not to mention the server merges.
If Vanguard was truely dead, they would just shut down the whole thing and not wasted time improvining the game like they currently are.
Anyways, back on topic of LOTR, this game will not die anytime soon. Havnt seen such a successful launch since WOW, as far as MMO's go. Also at the rate their adding content , books, and the AMOUNT, not some bs update like other games, this one isnt going anywhere.
It is not 4 million active characters. It says 4 million characters ever created. Big difference.
Actually we don't even know if it's since closed beta, or since open beta, or launch or what. Hell it might include characters from the internal alpha, or it might be only paid subs since launch. I agree, it's a totally useless number. Which is why I'm a bit ticked to see the news press pick up on the 800K that was derived from it using an erroneous relationship.
I always assumed paid journalists had higher standards than that, but so far it seems not since I've seen no retractions.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
Do you believe there are 800,000 active paying subscribers?
Yes 30.0%
No 70.0%
Based on 30 votes.
I find this shocking. I would say that most of what I read in the OP was intelligent and fairly well researched and in the face of Turbine's having only sold 230k copies and their maximum load capacity of 250k subscribers there're still people that believe this propoganda? if only a third of the people with subscriptions ever logged on simultaneously it would overload their network and shut em down, according to their numbers. I personally contributed 2 of those 4 million characters in probably the 60 most boring and underwhelming minutes I can remember in a free trial, and I darn sure didn't subscribe. You see, these big corporations are all about perception management. They'll tell you anything they think will protect their backsides or prop up their bottom line. Couple that with their basic assumption the American public is as dumb as a bag of doorknobs and you get yourself some of the most preposterous claims made in print you can imagine. The sad part is that for some reason, on a fairly significant percentage of the population, it works. I wonder if it is merely coincidence that the approval polls on our most powerful politicians tend to breakdown in similar fashion?
"People are more likely to believe a big lie than a small one."
Adolf Hitler
I will say what I've said on other forums. Why exactly does subscription numbers matter to you? Do you like the game or not? If not, then move on. Subscription numbers are the area of the corporate types that are seeing nothing more than $ signs and usually can't see the forest for the trees.
If you are happy playing this game or any other game, then it makes sense to me that you really don't care how many subscriptions they sold for that particular quarter. Personally, this is a forum for MMORPG's not a business forum where we discuss stocks and bonds and the rising and falling economic trends of video games.
All I want is the truth Just gimme some truth John Lennon
There is a very important statistic which I have not seen taken into consideration by anyone (or maybe I missed it). There are quite a number of people that paid for the "founders" subscription - myself included. I believe the cost was $199 for a lifetime subscription, meaning there is no monthly fee.
While I have the "founders" subscription, I stopped playing about 5 months ago as I am sure many other "founders." Even though many "founders" may have stopped playing, it would seem those accounts are still being counted as active subs. I guess technically they could be considered active at least until the amount paid for monthly subscriptions catch up.
In any event, I do not know how much this would change the numbers, but you cannot make any accurate estimate without at least taking the "founders" attrition rate into consideration.
There is a very important statistic which I have not seen taken into consideration by anyone (or maybe I missed it). There are quite a number of people that paid for the "founders" subscription - myself included. I believe the cost was $199 for a lifetime subscription, meaning there is no monthly fee. While I have the "founders" subscription, I stopped playing about 5 months ago as I am sure many other "founders." Even though many "founders" may have stopped playing, it would seem those accounts are still being counted as active subs. I guess technically they could be considered active at least until the amount paid for monthly subscriptions catch up. In any event, I do not know how much this would change the numbers, but you cannot make any accurate estimate without at least taking the "founders" attrition rate into consideration.
Another point further muddying the waters. Since you pre-paid for 20 months (essentially), should you be counted for the next 14 months? Or should you be counted forever (doubtless what Turbine will do)? Or should you no longer be counted at all?
Given that you can bop in whenever you feel like it, do you think you're more likely to check out new features in the future than a game (like EQ II or WoW) where you would have to resub? Or, given that many games (all SOE games comes to mind) now give former users a standing offer of two free weeks after a certain amount of time, is it not an issue?
In any case good, point.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
130,000-195,000 seems pretty good to me,puts it right up there with EVE and EQ2 for numbers. Nice researching,and for one I never believed there were 800k subs,I always guessed it would be the late 100,000's sort of number. How anyone could think 800k people could fit onto 22 or so servers...
hats off to you for a seemingly accurate guess anyway
And the comment about wow having only 500/600k subs outside of china? yeah ok.
I'm sure that Turbine will always count lifetime subscriptions as active paying subscriptions. The rate that a lifetime subscriber pays per month is averaged by the number of months the game lasts, but that was the deal and these subscriptions are paid nonetheless.
I'm sure that Turbine will always count lifetime subscriptions as active paying subscriptions. The rate that a lifetime subscriber pays per month is averaged by the number of months the game lasts, but that was the deal and these subscriptions are paid nonetheless.
Well for PR purposes I definitely see them counting them, but obviously not for revenue stream purposes lol. Could you imagine in two years if there were 0 people playing and paying but Turbine sticking to their guns and saying "we still have 100k active subscribers?"
I know that wouldn't happen but again, any attempt at an accurate estimate would need to consider the prospect. I still think the number estimates in the OP are much more accurate than the 800k (of course, it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong).
Good collection of material. But allow me to point out some weaknesses in your argument.
:
Originally posted by sempiternal
2. [...] the number of players that create 55 characters is likely much less than the players that only create characters on a few servers; offset by the probability that not all characters ever created were created by currently active, paying subscriptions.
This is a very odd statement. I tell you that the number of players that create 55 characters is certainlyby far less than the players that only create characters on a few servers. To use this as offset by the probability that not all characters ever created were created by currently active subscriptions does not help further. You cannot offset an unknown high number by an unknown low number and claim that the result is a somewhat reliable number.
In fact, we don't know enough here.
Originally posted by sempiternal
3. The CEO of Turbine, Jeff Anderson, said that LoTRO is the 2nd largest MMOG built in the US.
Using other MMOG numbers, and the CEO's statement, the actual range of paying subscriptions can be narrowed down, i.e. what is the 3rd largest MMOG made by a US company and what are the lowest MMOG numbers for MMOGs owned by companies such as Sony and NCSoft.
Ultima Online and Dark Age of Camelot by Electronic Arts' EA Mythic are both at about 100,000 subscribers. Everquest and Everquest 2 by Sony are at about 135,00 to 182,000 respectively. Also, City of Heros (CoH) by NCSoft is at about 153,000 subscribers. Then, according to the CEO's statement, LoTRO would have been between 100,000 and 135,000 active subscribers four months ago, at a time when 172,000 copies of LoTRO had been sold in the US.
Feel free to correct me, but I always thought that WoW is the largest MMOG built in the US. Using your numbers, we would get over 182.000 LotRo subscribers. With 135.000 subscribers would be behind EQ2 and CoH and WoW, --- certainly not the 2nd largest MMOG built in the US.
Originally posted by sempiternal
7. There have been no new server additions since LoTRO opened. Turbine has said that each server is capable of supporting about 10,000 players and there are 25 servers; 11 in the US, 11 in Europe, 2 in Japan, and 1 in China. If each server supports about 10,000 players, multiplying that by 25 servers, results in support for about 250,000 active players.
Here you got something wrong. In fact, EU Lotro has added a new server since launch: Gilrain.
Thanks for your post, as a result I have made a few updates to the Original Post (OP).
Let me clarify, it is a fact that there are players that create 55 characters. These players are obviously the extreme, but I merely wanted to point out the fact that it is done. Most players likely are on the low end or somewhere inbetween. The reason why I wanted to point this out is because the author of the 800,000 subscription guess wrongly claimed that the maximum characters are five and that is how he arrived at his 800k figure.
Now, as far as the offset from all the characters that have been created on free trials or on accounts that are no longer active, I did not claim that these characters completely offset the likely imbalance that exists between those that only have characters on a few servers and those that have them on all. Again, I merely wanted to point out that, undoubtedly, there have been thousands of characters created by free trial accounts. the initial free gametime included with sales, and accounts that have been canceled.
I went ahead and edited this in the OP:
"This number is likely higher because the number of players that create 55 characters is the extreme. Most players likely create a few characters or a number inbetween. However, the number is also likely reduced by the probability that not all characters ever created were created by currently active, paying subscriptions. A good number of characters have likely been created by free trial subscriptions and subscriptions that have been canceled."
Next, there is a reason that Jeff Anderson specifically said, "We're probably now the second-largest MMORPG operating that was built in the US right now, you know, built in North America/Europe." What he means by, "built in the US," is owned by a US company. And the reason he did that is because he could not say that LoTRO was larger than any Asian owned MMORPGs such as those owned by Sony, NCSoft, Square Enix, and others. Saying that LoTRO is the second largest built in the US is deceptive, but smart, because WoW is the largest, and the largest in the world. It gives the perception that LoTRO is much larger than it really is.
Sony, which produces EQ is a Japanese company and NCSoft, which produces CoH, and many more MMOGs that have subscribers in the millions, is a Korean company. Since Sony is the Asian company that has the smallest MMORPGs in North America (NA), all we have to do is take a look at their largest MMORPG to figure out where LoTRO stands. EQ II is their largest and is currently at about 182,000 subscribers. Since Sony is so well known in the NA MMO industry, Turbine would like nothing more than to issue a statement that LoTRO has exceeded Sony in the NA, and is the second largest MMORPG operating in the US, period. But since they have not done that, and specifically said, "built in the US," it is highly probable that LoTRO still has less than 182,000 subscriptions, which is a current number for EQ II. Just because Turbine has not made that claim yet, does not mean it is not so, and that is why I left the high estimate at 195,000, which would be the case if all new copies sold in the last three months are still subscribing - it's very likely on the high side, which is the purpose of a range.
I made the following changes to the OP:
"The CEO of Turbine, Jeff Anderson specifically said, "We're probably now the second-largest MMORPG operating that was built in the US right now, you know, built in North America/Europe."
"Using other MMOG numbers, and the CEO's statement, the actual range of paying subscriptions can be narrowed down, i.e. what is the 3rd largest MMOG made by a US company and what are the highest numbers for an MMOG owned by an asian company operating in the US."
"195,000 would be at the high end, because it would mean that all new copies sold in the last three months are still actively subscribing."
As for your last concern, yes, the Gilrain server was added after release - 17 days after release. Now, that is pretty nitpicky, but I want to be as accurate as possible, so I will change the wording in the original post.
Here is what I changed in OP; "There has only been one new server addition, 17 days after LoTRO was released."
Let me clarify, I know quite a few people personally that create all 55 characters.
I stopped reading afther that line...
Playing:World of Warcraft. Played:Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies. Tried:Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.
LOTRO is not WOW , period. Is it a crush and burn ? No , it isnt either.
I played from day one , and still today with all the lack of endgame content and all boredom - there is roughly same number of players i am seeing around me.
So , LOTRO is doing fine. People should stop expecting MMOs to break WOW record.
It will simply not happen. Not even when WAR comes out
Do you believe there are 800,000 active paying subscribers?
Yes 30.0%
No 70.0%
Based on 30 votes.
I find this shocking. I would say that most of what I read in the OP was intelligent and fairly well researched and in the face of Turbine's having only sold 230k copies and their maximum load capacity of 250k subscribers there're still people that believe this propoganda? if only a third of the people with subscriptions ever logged on simultaneously it would overload their network and shut em down, according to their numbers. I personally contributed 2 of those 4 million characters in probably the 60 most boring and underwhelming minutes I can remember in a free trial, and I darn sure didn't subscribe. You see, these big corporations are all about perception management. They'll tell you anything they think will protect their backsides or prop up their bottom line. Couple that with their basic assumption the American public is as dumb as a bag of doorknobs and you get yourself some of the most preposterous claims made in print you can imagine. The sad part is that for some reason, on a fairly significant percentage of the population, it works. I wonder if it is merely coincidence that the approval polls on our most powerful politicians tend to breakdown in similar fashion?
"People are more likely to believe a big lie than a small one."
Adolf Hitler
I will say what I've said on other forums. Why exactly does subscription numbers matter to you? Do you like the game or not? If not, then move on. Subscription numbers are the area of the corporate types that are seeing nothing more than $ signs and usually can't see the forest for the trees.
If you are happy playing this game or any other game, then it makes sense to me that you really don't care how many subscriptions they sold for that particular quarter. Personally, this is a forum for MMORPG's not a business forum where we discuss stocks and bonds and the rising and falling economic trends of video games.
I personally don't care about LOTRO's subscription numbers, but what he's doing here is exposing a boldfaced lie by Turbine and supporting his evidence with research which I always upport . As far the monetary issues I brought up, I was just giving reasons a large corporation would lie to the public for those people who may still believe money+power+corporate=honest
"The people never give up their liberties but under some delusion." -Edmund Burke
Who will rise up for me against the evildoers? or who will stand up for me against the workers of iniquity?" (Psalm 94:16)
Please stop this I mean why is this really important , LOTRO is not WOW , period. Is it a crush and burn ? No , it isnt either.
I played from day one , and still today with all the lack of endgame content and all boredom - there is roughly same number of players i am seeing around me.
So , LOTRO is doing fine. People should stop expecting MMOs to break WOW record. It will simply not happen. Not even when WAR comes out
We are not expecting that....what we expect is honest answers...and a company that has to use such a false pretense of sales to make themselves look as popular as WoW...well, it is also the kind of company I do not wish to take my cash...
I get no falsified numbers or wild claims from SOE, from NCSOFT, Mythic...so, the fact that Turbine is using such a tactic, well, this puts them on the "Do not trust" list...as who knows what else they will claim that will be untrue (for example...what will future expansions be like...etc.)
Do you believe there are 800,000 active paying subscribers?
Yes 30.0%
No 70.0%
Based on 30 votes.
I find this shocking. I would say that most of what I read in the OP was intelligent and fairly well researched and in the face of Turbine's having only sold 230k copies and their maximum load capacity of 250k subscribers there're still people that believe this propoganda? if only a third of the people with subscriptions ever logged on simultaneously it would overload their network and shut em down, according to their numbers. I personally contributed 2 of those 4 million characters in probably the 60 most boring and underwhelming minutes I can remember in a free trial, and I darn sure didn't subscribe. You see, these big corporations are all about perception management. They'll tell you anything they think will protect their backsides or prop up their bottom line. Couple that with their basic assumption the American public is as dumb as a bag of doorknobs and you get yourself some of the most preposterous claims made in print you can imagine. The sad part is that for some reason, on a fairly significant percentage of the population, it works. I wonder if it is merely coincidence that the approval polls on our most powerful politicians tend to breakdown in similar fashion?
"People are more likely to believe a big lie than a small one."
Adolf Hitler
I will say what I've said on other forums. Why exactly does subscription numbers matter to you? Do you like the game or not? If not, then move on. Subscription numbers are the area of the corporate types that are seeing nothing more than $ signs and usually can't see the forest for the trees.
If you are happy playing this game or any other game, then it makes sense to me that you really don't care how many subscriptions they sold for that particular quarter. Personally, this is a forum for MMORPG's not a business forum where we discuss stocks and bonds and the rising and falling economic trends of video games.
I personally don't care about LOTRO's subscription numbers, but what he's doing here is exposing a boldfaced lie by Turbine and supporting his evidence with research which I always upport . As far the monetary issues I brought up, I was just giving reasons a large corporation would lie to the public for those people who may still believe money+power+corporate=honest
I just happened to check Turbines main page on the CEO announcement and it says clear as day that LoTRO is the 2nd largest MMO in N America based on pubicly available information. If I had to take a guess I would say 200k+.
I just happened to check Turbines main page on the CEO announcement and it says clear as day that LoTRO is the 2nd largest MMO in N America based on pubicly available information. If I had to take a guess I would say 200k+.
I agree...200k......and that would be the HIGHEST number I would give them also...no more..
I just happened to check Turbines main page on the CEO announcement and it says clear as day that LoTRO is the 2nd largest MMO in N America based on pubicly available information. If I had to take a guess I would say 200k+.
Thanks for that current announcement. I see they are still trying to be deceptive though! Turbine stated today, "Turbine’s most recent title, The Lord of the Rings Online (www.lotro.com), has quickly become the second largest MMORPG*."
Yet then, the fine print at the bottom reads, "*Comparison data includes subscription-based MMORPG titles developed in North America based on reported data."
That's pretty shameful! That's like saying, we're the second biggest MMO in the world*
*In North America
Or like me saying, I'm the second richest man in the world*
*That lives in my neighborhood.
Basically it amounts to a lie unless the reader happens to read the fine print at the bottom of the page.
When I started this thread I just wanted to get a grip on LoTRO numbers because I'm involved in MMOs and like to discuss them. I also suspected that some reporters unfamiliar with MMOs had misinterpreted what Turbine was telling them. However, now it's becoming clear that Turbine has intentionally been deceptive with the information they are releasing to the public and media.
Then on another page, in a quote two weeks ago, Turbine claims, "LOTRO has quickly become the second largest MMORPG with an estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home."
So, which is it? Which is the truth? The new claim today that they are the second largest MMO developed in North America, or the previous statement made two weeks ago, of being the second largest, period?
Their new statement confirms that their previous claim was, not only completely absurd, but either an error or a lie. I had not seen this statement before directly from Turbine, and I am completely shocked that they would do such a thing. So, it was not just bad reporting, it was Turbine themselves putting out bad deceptive information.
1. "...second largest MMORPG...," means exactly that, second largest in the world! They did not state second largest subscription based in the US, or even second largest developed in the US. Turbine outright claimed to be the second largest MMORPG, period. Maybe Turbine is pretending not to know about the existence of:
Final Fantasy XI - 500,000
Entropia - 592,000
Lineage 2 - 1,090,000
Lineage - 1,400,000
Dofus - 3,720,000
Guild Wars - 3,920,000
Knight Online - 4,250,000
Second Life - 4,370,000
Runescape - 5,840,000
2. Turbine basing their, "second-largest MMORPG" statement off the number of characters that have ever been created, is the most idiotic thing I've seen a major MMO company do with regard to subscription numbers, ever. Everyone that knows anything about MMOs knows that total characters created during the life of a game does not represent subscribers at all. Unless Turbine happens to get lucky and actually make their statement come true in a few years, with an actual announcement of at least 1,000,000 paying subscriptions, which will go quite a ways in helping everyone forget the lies they are currently making, then they will always be known as the MMO company that intentionally and dramatically lies about their numbers.
Then on another page, Turbine goes on to claim, "LOTRO has quickly become the second largest MMORPG with an estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home."
Now this is an absolute lie and completely absurd. I had not seen this statement before, directly from Turbine, and I am completely shocked that they would do such a thing! So, it was not just a bad reporting, it was Turbine themselves putting out bad information.
1. "...second largest MMORPG...," means exactly that, second largest in the world! They did not state second largest subscription based, or even second largest subscription based in the US! Turbine outright claimed to be the second largest MMORPG, period! Maybe Turbine is pretending not to know about the existance of:
Final Fantasy XI - 500,000
Entropia - 592,000
Lineage 2 - 1,090,000
Lineage - 1,400,000
Dofus - 3,720,000
Guild Wars - 3,920,000
Knight Online - 4,250,000
Second Life - 4,370,000
Runescape - 5,840,000
2. Turbine basing their, "second-largest MMORPG" statement off the number of characters that have ever been created, is the most idiotic thing I've seen a major MMO company do with regard to subscription numbers, ever. Everyone that knows anything about MMOs knows that total characters created during the life of a game does not represent subscribers at all! Unless Turbine happens to get lucky and actually make their statement come true in a few years, with an actual anouncement of at least 1,000,000 paying subscriptions, helping everyone forget the lies they are currently making, they will always be known as the MMO company that dramatically lies about their numbers.
Thay never said thay were the second biggest mmo in the world, the only said there the second largest mmo, might be US or EU it has not even released in Asia so your putting up nonsence there "Since its launch in April, LOTRO has quickly become the second largest MMORPG with an estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home." i dont see "world" in there anywere, you just made that up.
Your also claming like Turbine basing there numbers but actuly its not turbine , yes in that link you posted its turbine but analist of the finacial news basted the number on 4 million characters not turbine thay only released the number and now there posting the thing in there news released by others.
All you do is making things up, and why? cuz you dont like this game beinig sucsesfull i gess, but a lot of players aperently do like this game,the game is a sucses wether you like it or not! so please stop this and enjoy life.
Playing:World of Warcraft. Played:Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies. Tried:Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.
Sorry, you've got everything wrong. Turbine does not make their own official announcements on their website based upon what the media says, it's the other way around.
Also, when you state, "we are the second largest MMO," without an exclusion, that literally means, out of everyone. And, we do live on Earth, which is also referred to as the world, do we not?
Why don't we change the subject and talk about Roma Victor Subscribtions.
Last number I heard was 200.
Lotro could have about 200000 worldwide. It will never commpete with all those f2p mmorpgs, but at least it seems to be still worth the Subscriptin fee. (unlike Knight Online, flyff,...)
Comments
Everquest 2 has a lot less active subs then most mmo's and surley Lotro.
in fact it only has 0.5% of the entire mmo market wich is still decent but nothing compaired to most others.
so anyhow.. 150k members have 4million chars??how does that work lol
150k subs doesn't have 4 million characters, Turbine claims that 4 million characters have been created since beta or something like that and you know what?
I have probably created over 40 characters on my World of Warcraft account, all of which are now deleted except one.
I'm not really sure about EverQuest II:s current active subs but they are on the same level or slightly higher than LotRO:s active subs so if EverQuest 2 has 0.5% of the market (your words not mine) then LotRO has the same or slightly less
Tolkien would not have liked how Bree is depicted in LotRO, in the book the tavern is the central place in the small and quaint town but in the game it is not a small town but a sprawling metropolis with three story buildings and the tavern has been pushed aside for more extravagant buildings
I'm not saying that he would turn in his grave he would just not like it
It is not 4 million active characters. It says 4 million characters ever created. Big difference.
We speculate, because we can. We theorize, extrapolate, calculate, estimate because we have the intelligence to do so (well, some of us <--- no need to be a dick). We do all this and talk about it because we enjoy doing so.
Ok, sure. What I'm saying is don't expect the discussion to have any satisfying conclusion. It's nearly pure speculation. I could attack the OP and point out some flaws that I see in his reasoning (starting a pointless flame war), I could list my own shaky math (which would be just as speculative as OP), or I could leave the conversation where it will inevitably end, if we are going to be honest: No-one really knows but Turbine.
If you use guesses for your input, and then use an equation made up of guesses as to the relationships among the variables, how much faith do you have in the output? Personally, I have less than you guys seem to have in the OP.
It's interesting to note the the implied "anonymous tip from and insider" has also appeared in this thread. Will messages from angels be next?
One thing we can be pretty certain of, is if a company isn't publishing their actual sub numbers and obscuring the truth by releasing meaningless numbers like how many characters have been created they probably aren't very proud of the number.
A statement like this I can agree with . Whatever the true number is, it likely is less than what Turbine was hoping for. It's certainly not in the millions (!?!) as their adds implied.
800K is subs is obviously too high. Yet the press has accepted it as a fact. Therefore, whatever the real number is, Turbine certainly isn't going to be releasing in any time soon. Why disillusion their stock holders?
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
Originally posted by Thor_Leifson
That would be Vanguard: Saga of Heroes, the shortest lived MMO ever. It lasted, what, 115 days before imploding in the black hole that is and was Brad McQuaid's so-called Vision? How many servers are they down to now? Anyone?
Shortest Lived? You are mistaken, Vanguard is not dead by any means. It lives on THANKS to SOE, and its resources. They are down to 5 servers, 1 being ffa pvp, and the one I play on (Sartok, pvp) always has people on it. Can't speak for the other servers, but theres always people to group and kill, and im only level 15.
Also they spent I would imagine, alot of resources... read FUNDS getting game update 2 (which made the game MUCH more stable, + new features) to live, not to mention the server merges.
If Vanguard was truely dead, they would just shut down the whole thing and not wasted time improvining the game like they currently are.
Anyways, back on topic of LOTR, this game will not die anytime soon. Havnt seen such a successful launch since WOW, as far as MMO's go. Also at the rate their adding content , books, and the AMOUNT, not some bs update like other games, this one isnt going anywhere.
Actually we don't even know if it's since closed beta, or since open beta, or launch or what. Hell it might include characters from the internal alpha, or it might be only paid subs since launch. I agree, it's a totally useless number. Which is why I'm a bit ticked to see the news press pick up on the 800K that was derived from it using an erroneous relationship.
I always assumed paid journalists had higher standards than that, but so far it seems not since I've seen no retractions.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
If you are happy playing this game or any other game, then it makes sense to me that you really don't care how many subscriptions they sold for that particular quarter. Personally, this is a forum for MMORPG's not a business forum where we discuss stocks and bonds and the rising and falling economic trends of video games.
All I want is the truth
Just gimme some truth
John Lennon
There is a very important statistic which I have not seen taken into consideration by anyone (or maybe I missed it). There are quite a number of people that paid for the "founders" subscription - myself included. I believe the cost was $199 for a lifetime subscription, meaning there is no monthly fee.
While I have the "founders" subscription, I stopped playing about 5 months ago as I am sure many other "founders." Even though many "founders" may have stopped playing, it would seem those accounts are still being counted as active subs. I guess technically they could be considered active at least until the amount paid for monthly subscriptions catch up.
In any event, I do not know how much this would change the numbers, but you cannot make any accurate estimate without at least taking the "founders" attrition rate into consideration.
Another point further muddying the waters. Since you pre-paid for 20 months (essentially), should you be counted for the next 14 months? Or should you be counted forever (doubtless what Turbine will do)? Or should you no longer be counted at all?
Given that you can bop in whenever you feel like it, do you think you're more likely to check out new features in the future than a game (like EQ II or WoW) where you would have to resub? Or, given that many games (all SOE games comes to mind) now give former users a standing offer of two free weeks after a certain amount of time, is it not an issue?
In any case good, point.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
130,000-195,000 seems pretty good to me,puts it right up there with EVE and EQ2 for numbers. Nice researching,and for one I never believed there were 800k subs,I always guessed it would be the late 100,000's sort of number. How anyone could think 800k people could fit onto 22 or so servers...
hats off to you for a seemingly accurate guess anyway
And the comment about wow having only 500/600k subs outside of china? yeah ok.
I'm sure that Turbine will always count lifetime subscriptions as active paying subscriptions. The rate that a lifetime subscriber pays per month is averaged by the number of months the game lasts, but that was the deal and these subscriptions are paid nonetheless.
Well for PR purposes I definitely see them counting them, but obviously not for revenue stream purposes lol. Could you imagine in two years if there were 0 people playing and paying but Turbine sticking to their guns and saying "we still have 100k active subscribers?"
I know that wouldn't happen but again, any attempt at an accurate estimate would need to consider the prospect. I still think the number estimates in the OP are much more accurate than the 800k (of course, it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong).
Good collection of material. But allow me to point out some weaknesses in your argument.
:
Originally posted by sempiternal
This is a very odd statement. I tell you that the number of players that create 55 characters is certainly by far less than the players that only create characters on a few servers. To use this as offset by the probability that not all characters ever created were created by currently active subscriptions does not help further. You cannot offset an unknown high number by an unknown low number and claim that the result is a somewhat reliable number.
In fact, we don't know enough here.
Feel free to correct me, but I always thought that WoW is the largest MMOG built in the US. Using your numbers, we would get over 182.000 LotRo subscribers. With 135.000 subscribers would be behind EQ2 and CoH and WoW, --- certainly not the 2nd largest MMOG built in the US.
Here you got something wrong. In fact, EU Lotro has added a new server since launch: Gilrain.
For details see here: http://lotro.allakhazam.com/sdetail.html?story=9527
Now of course you will say that one server isn't really much, but let's still stick to the facts.
At least it shows that the subscriber numbers in Europe were not less than expected by Codemasters, in fact they were even a bit higher.
Thanks for your post, as a result I have made a few updates to the Original Post (OP).
Let me clarify, it is a fact that there are players that create 55 characters. These players are obviously the extreme, but I merely wanted to point out the fact that it is done. Most players likely are on the low end or somewhere inbetween. The reason why I wanted to point this out is because the author of the 800,000 subscription guess wrongly claimed that the maximum characters are five and that is how he arrived at his 800k figure.
Now, as far as the offset from all the characters that have been created on free trials or on accounts that are no longer active, I did not claim that these characters completely offset the likely imbalance that exists between those that only have characters on a few servers and those that have them on all. Again, I merely wanted to point out that, undoubtedly, there have been thousands of characters created by free trial accounts. the initial free gametime included with sales, and accounts that have been canceled.
I went ahead and edited this in the OP:
Next, there is a reason that Jeff Anderson specifically said, "We're probably now the second-largest MMORPG operating that was built in the US right now, you know, built in North America/Europe." What he means by, "built in the US," is owned by a US company. And the reason he did that is because he could not say that LoTRO was larger than any Asian owned MMORPGs such as those owned by Sony, NCSoft, Square Enix, and others. Saying that LoTRO is the second largest built in the US is deceptive, but smart, because WoW is the largest, and the largest in the world. It gives the perception that LoTRO is much larger than it really is.
Sony, which produces EQ is a Japanese company and NCSoft, which produces CoH, and many more MMOGs that have subscribers in the millions, is a Korean company. Since Sony is the Asian company that has the smallest MMORPGs in North America (NA), all we have to do is take a look at their largest MMORPG to figure out where LoTRO stands. EQ II is their largest and is currently at about 182,000 subscribers. Since Sony is so well known in the NA MMO industry, Turbine would like nothing more than to issue a statement that LoTRO has exceeded Sony in the NA, and is the second largest MMORPG operating in the US, period. But since they have not done that, and specifically said, "built in the US," it is highly probable that LoTRO still has less than 182,000 subscriptions, which is a current number for EQ II. Just because Turbine has not made that claim yet, does not mean it is not so, and that is why I left the high estimate at 195,000, which would be the case if all new copies sold in the last three months are still subscribing - it's very likely on the high side, which is the purpose of a range.
I made the following changes to the OP:
As for your last concern, yes, the Gilrain server was added after release - 17 days after release. Now, that is pretty nitpicky, but I want to be as accurate as possible, so I will change the wording in the original post.
Thanks.
I stopped reading afther that line...
Playing: World of Warcraft.
Played: Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies.
Tried: Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.
Please stop this
I mean why is this really important ,
LOTRO is not WOW , period. Is it a crush and burn ? No , it isnt either.
I played from day one , and still today with all the lack of endgame content and all boredom - there is roughly same number of players i am seeing around me.
So , LOTRO is doing fine. People should stop expecting MMOs to break WOW record.
It will simply not happen. Not even when WAR comes out
If you are happy playing this game or any other game, then it makes sense to me that you really don't care how many subscriptions they sold for that particular quarter. Personally, this is a forum for MMORPG's not a business forum where we discuss stocks and bonds and the rising and falling economic trends of video games.
I personally don't care about LOTRO's subscription numbers, but what he's doing here is exposing a boldfaced lie by Turbine and supporting his evidence with research which I always upport . As far the monetary issues I brought up, I was just giving reasons a large corporation would lie to the public for those people who may still believe money+power+corporate=honest
"The people never give up their liberties but under some delusion." -Edmund Burke
Who will rise up for me against the evildoers? or who will stand up for me against the workers of iniquity?"
(Psalm 94:16)
I get no falsified numbers or wild claims from SOE, from NCSOFT, Mythic...so, the fact that Turbine is using such a tactic, well, this puts them on the "Do not trust" list...as who knows what else they will claim that will be untrue (for example...what will future expansions be like...etc.)
Cheers!
If you are happy playing this game or any other game, then it makes sense to me that you really don't care how many subscriptions they sold for that particular quarter. Personally, this is a forum for MMORPG's not a business forum where we discuss stocks and bonds and the rising and falling economic trends of video games.
I personally don't care about LOTRO's subscription numbers, but what he's doing here is exposing a boldfaced lie by Turbine and supporting his evidence with research which I always upport . As far the monetary issues I brought up, I was just giving reasons a large corporation would lie to the public for those people who may still believe money+power+corporate=honest
hehe...beat me too it...SO AGREE!
I just happened to check Turbines main page on the CEO announcement and it says clear as day that LoTRO is the 2nd largest MMO in N America based on pubicly available information. If I had to take a guess I would say 200k+.
Cheers!
Thanks for that current announcement. I see they are still trying to be deceptive though! Turbine stated today, "Turbine’s most recent title, The Lord of the Rings Online (www.lotro.com), has quickly become the second largest MMORPG*."
Yet then, the fine print at the bottom reads, "*Comparison data includes subscription-based MMORPG titles developed in North America based on reported data."
That's pretty shameful! That's like saying, we're the second biggest MMO in the world*
*In North America
Or like me saying, I'm the second richest man in the world*
*That lives in my neighborhood.
Basically it amounts to a lie unless the reader happens to read the fine print at the bottom of the page.
When I started this thread I just wanted to get a grip on LoTRO numbers because I'm involved in MMOs and like to discuss them. I also suspected that some reporters unfamiliar with MMOs had misinterpreted what Turbine was telling them. However, now it's becoming clear that Turbine has intentionally been deceptive with the information they are releasing to the public and media.
http://www.turbine.com/index.php?page_id=20&pagebuilder[module]=sitearticle&pagebuilder[display_item]=53
Then on another page, in a quote two weeks ago, Turbine claims, "LOTRO has quickly become the second largest MMORPG with an estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home."
So, which is it? Which is the truth? The new claim today that they are the second largest MMO developed in North America, or the previous statement made two weeks ago, of being the second largest, period?
Their new statement confirms that their previous claim was, not only completely absurd, but either an error or a lie. I had not seen this statement before directly from Turbine, and I am completely shocked that they would do such a thing. So, it was not just bad reporting, it was Turbine themselves putting out bad deceptive information.
1. "...second largest MMORPG...," means exactly that, second largest in the world! They did not state second largest subscription based in the US, or even second largest developed in the US. Turbine outright claimed to be the second largest MMORPG, period. Maybe Turbine is pretending not to know about the existence of:
Final Fantasy XI - 500,000
Entropia - 592,000
Lineage 2 - 1,090,000
Lineage - 1,400,000
Dofus - 3,720,000
Guild Wars - 3,920,000
Knight Online - 4,250,000
Second Life - 4,370,000
2. Turbine basing their, "second-largest MMORPG" statement off the number of characters that have ever been created, is the most idiotic thing I've seen a major MMO company do with regard to subscription numbers, ever. Everyone that knows anything about MMOs knows that total characters created during the life of a game does not represent subscribers at all. Unless Turbine happens to get lucky and actually make their statement come true in a few years, with an actual announcement of at least 1,000,000 paying subscriptions, which will go quite a ways in helping everyone forget the lies they are currently making, then they will always be known as the MMO company that intentionally and dramatically lies about their numbers.
http://www.turbine.com/index.php?page_id=20&pagebuilder[module]=sitearticle&pagebuilder[display_item]=52
Thay never said thay were the second biggest mmo in the world, the only said there the second largest mmo, might be US or EU it has not even released in Asia so your putting up nonsence there "Since its launch in April, LOTRO has quickly become the second largest MMORPG with an estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home." i dont see "world" in there anywere, you just made that up.
Your also claming like Turbine basing there numbers but actuly its not turbine , yes in that link you posted its turbine but analist of the finacial news basted the number on 4 million characters not turbine thay only released the number and now there posting the thing in there news released by others.
All you do is making things up, and why? cuz you dont like this game beinig sucsesfull i gess, but a lot of players aperently do like this game,the game is a sucses wether you like it or not! so please stop this and enjoy life.
Playing: World of Warcraft.
Played: Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies.
Tried: Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.
Sorry, you've got everything wrong. Turbine does not make their own official announcements on their website based upon what the media says, it's the other way around.
Also, when you state, "we are the second largest MMO," without an exclusion, that literally means, out of everyone. And, we do live on Earth, which is also referred to as the world, do we not?
Why don't we change the subject and talk about Roma Victor Subscribtions.
Last number I heard was 200.
Lotro could have about 200000 worldwide. It will never commpete with all those f2p mmorpgs, but at least it seems to be still worth the Subscriptin fee. (unlike Knight Online, flyff,...)