I'm all for WAR, but I believe "The Lich King" trailer that featured siege warfare came out long before they announced siege in WAR.
I'm pretty sure it wasn't, as far as I can remember since WAR was announced seige and world PvP was one of the major features. If not then it was certainly expected since Mythic was making the game. I never even heard a thing about siege in WoW until a couple of weeks ago.
Edit: As for WoW subscriber numbers, the only aknowledged subscribers figures are from Asia. Blizzard has been very secretive about exactly how many active accounts they have in the US, Europe and Australia. the 9 million may well be just the number that have bought the game and at some point paid for a subscription. The amount of playtime these accounts use is also debatable, not everyone is playing 20+ hours a week, so if WAR, AoC and others can take away even a few thousand active subscriptions via casual gamers then it's a blow to Blizzard since casual gamers probably make up a large chunk of WoWs subscribers.
Of course nobody outside the industry knows any solid facts about this so it's all pure speculation, even if Blizz did take a hit they would still PR it like they had 9 million subsribers regardless of whether those accounts were active or not.
tl;dr WoW might have millions of people with accounts but not every single one of them is neccesarily active.
WoW was claiming to have siege well before it released, it just never did.
Originally posted by Pheace Originally posted by DrunkenPrey Originally posted by Kuji-Kiri
I'm all for WAR, but I believe "The Lich King" trailer that featured siege warfare came out long before they announced siege in WAR.
I'm pretty sure it wasn't, as far as I can remember since WAR was announced seige and world PvP was one of the major features. If not then it was certainly expected since Mythic was making the game. I never even heard a thing about siege in WoW until a couple of weeks ago. Edit: As for WoW subscriber numbers, the only aknowledged subscribers figures are from Asia. Blizzard has been very secretive about exactly how many active accounts they have in the US, Europe and Australia. the 9 million may well be just the number that have bought the game and at some point paid for a subscription. The amount of playtime these accounts use is also debatable, not everyone is playing 20+ hours a week, so if WAR, AoC and others can take away even a few thousand active subscriptions via casual gamers then it's a blow to Blizzard since casual gamers probably make up a large chunk of WoWs subscribers. Of course nobody outside the industry knows any solid facts about this so it's all pure speculation, even if Blizz did take a hit they would still PR it like they had 9 million subsribers regardless of whether those accounts were active or not.
tl;dr WoW might have millions of people with accounts but not every single one of them is neccesarily active.
WoW was claiming to have siege well before it released, it just never did.
Pheace is correct - WoW did advertise on the box that it had sieges, or some such thing.
I guess they just forgot to add that it would be implemented 4 years or so later, but hey, they got around to it! :P
You know, WoW implementing similar concepts as WAR in a limited way may actually help WAR, in the long run. If people like that aspect of WoW they may head to WAR for more of it.
I wish someone would create a MMO that wasn't fantasy based that actualy could rival WoW. I have been playing since it came out and I'm just tired or the genera. I would be satisfied if Blizzard would create another MMO in another genera. Maby even from another of there popular games. Such as Starcraft. That would rock.
You know what i truly hate, people calling every MMO other than WOW a niche game, that could never do as well in the MMO market. Yes WOW has 9 million accounts and 3/4 of those are in the asian market, but so what, doesn't mean that a new and refreshing MMO can't take a lions share away from Blizzard in the Western and EU markets. WOW and it's 9 million is the worst thing that has ever happened to the MMO world.
Ignorancy at it's best.
This genre was dieing a slow death before WoW came out, MMO's had a horrible rep as did paying monthly for a game. WoW, no matter what you think about the game itself, has expanded the MMO market immensely to something before unthinkable.
All it takes is some new developer to come out with the next thing, something actually innovating and fun, but at least the market warrants investment now. Before, the market itself was pretty much not worth it.
(there's a delay on the impact ofcourse of several years once Blizzard's succes was verified before games will start popping up)
Your hilarious. WOW, a game that caters to pre-teens and pretty much steers you from lvl 1 to 70. Yep that's been so good for the mature MMO community. Not sure how old you are, but myself and i would imagine many others want more out of an online world than what WOW has to offer.
All i'm saying is, most of WOW's playerbase is in the asian market and i would assume most of them are nothing more than gold farmers. You only have about 3 to 3 1/2 million players from the West and the EU. It's not a far stretch to think that a new MMO coming out can't wipe the floor clean and take alot of those subs from Blizzard, in those 2 markets.
Calling any game other than WOW and niche game is just flat out uneducated.
I wish someone would create a MMO that wasn't fantasy based that actualy could rival WoW. I have been playing since it came out and I'm just tired or the genera. I would be satisfied if Blizzard would create another MMO in another genera. Maby even from another of there popular games. Such as Starcraft. That would rock.
Remember, MMORPGs limp along with 20,000 subscribers (DAoC) for years. Some never even get close to 100,000 (EVE) and are considered 'strong' AAA titles. Old dogs like EQ and AO are still going.
WoW has nearly 10 MILLION paying subscribers !
To think that any title is going to take that away (except maybe World of Starcraft) would be just plain silly.
You know what i truly hate, people calling every MMO other than WOW a niche game, that could never do as well in the MMO market. Yes WOW has 9 million accounts and 3/4 of those are in the asian market, but so what, doesn't mean that a new and refreshing MMO can't take a lions share away from Blizzard in the Western and EU markets. WOW and it's 9 million is the worst thing that has ever happened to the MMO world.
Ignorancy at it's best.
This genre was dieing a slow death before WoW came out, MMO's had a horrible rep as did paying monthly for a game. WoW, no matter what you think about the game itself, has expanded the MMO market immensely to something before unthinkable.
All it takes is some new developer to come out with the next thing, something actually innovating and fun, but at least the market warrants investment now. Before, the market itself was pretty much not worth it.
(there's a delay on the impact ofcourse of several years once Blizzard's succes was verified before games will start popping up)
Your hilarious. WOW, a game that caters to pre-teens and pretty much steers you from lvl 1 to 70. Yep that's been so good for the mature MMO community. Not sure how old you are, but myself and i would imagine many others want more out of an online world than what WOW has to offer.
All i'm saying is, most of WOW's playerbase is in the asian market and i would assume most of them are nothing more than gold farmers. You only have about 3 to 3 1/2 million players from the West and the EU. It's not a far stretch to think that a new MMO coming out can't wipe the floor clean and take alot of those subs from Blizzard, in those 2 markets.
Calling any game other than WOW and niche game is just flat out uneducated.
Are you really this senseless?
Goldfarming is possible because of the currency differences. Goldselling in China is a waste at best.
You also didn't disprove anything about what I said. WoW grew the genre and actually gave it a future by making it an attractive investment market. Something it simply was *not* anymore before WoW strolled out. Now your misplaced opinion about the game or who it's aimed at (teens grow up by the way if you care to think a little further than just yesterday and today) was totally irrelevant to the point made.
and my age has passed the 2's in case you're actually that immature that you can't take a post on face value if it isn't posted by someone with a mature age, rather than based on the maturity of the content itself.
Any news on what MMO they *are* working on? I swear to god if its fantasy I will drive there and kick everyones ass with my super sword of a thousand ass kickings.
You know what i truly hate, people calling every MMO other than WOW a niche game, that could never do as well in the MMO market. Yes WOW has 9 million accounts and 3/4 of those are in the asian market, but so what, doesn't mean that a new and refreshing MMO can't take a lions share away from Blizzard in the Western and EU markets. WOW and it's 9 million is the worst thing that has ever happened to the MMO world.
Ignorancy at it's best.
This genre was dieing a slow death before WoW came out, MMO's had a horrible rep as did paying monthly for a game. WoW, no matter what you think about the game itself, has expanded the MMO market immensely to something before unthinkable.
All it takes is some new developer to come out with the next thing, something actually innovating and fun, but at least the market warrants investment now. Before, the market itself was pretty much not worth it.
(there's a delay on the impact ofcourse of several years once Blizzard's succes was verified before games will start popping up)
Your hilarious. WOW, a game that caters to pre-teens and pretty much steers you from lvl 1 to 70. Yep that's been so good for the mature MMO community. Not sure how old you are, but myself and i would imagine many others want more out of an online world than what WOW has to offer.
All i'm saying is, most of WOW's playerbase is in the asian market and i would assume most of them are nothing more than gold farmers. You only have about 3 to 3 1/2 million players from the West and the EU. It's not a far stretch to think that a new MMO coming out can't wipe the floor clean and take alot of those subs from Blizzard, in those 2 markets.
Calling any game other than WOW and niche game is just flat out uneducated.
Are you really this senseless?
Goldfarming is possible because of the currency differences. Goldselling in China is a waste at best.
You also didn't disprove anything about what I said. WoW grew the genre and actually gave it a future by making it an attractive investment market. Something it simply was *not* anymore before WoW strolled out. Now your misplaced opinion about the game or who it's aimed at (teens grow up by the way if you care to think a little further than just yesterday and today) was totally irrelevant to the point made.
and my age has passed the 2's in case you're actually that immature that you can't take a post on face value if it isn't posted by someone with a mature age, rather than based on the maturity of the content itself.
I get what you are saying. I will also agree that WOW brought in alot of new customers to the MMO community. The problem i have is, that's not always a good thing. Just because Blizzard has gone out and has done some superb marketing doesn't make the product they are selling good for the whole MMO community. You know at one time they were adds on TV for cigerettes as well, didn't change the fact that smoking those cancer sticks were harmful to your health.
The only thing WOW has done is made most dev companies develope games in a very linear fashion, that takes almost all thought process out of the players hands.
In your mind WOW has made the MMO game a more attractive investment, but in reality, MMO's weren't doing that bad before it came out. The big games had very healthy populations, and gameplay was way more than what you get now for the monthly fee.
You know what i truly hate, people calling every MMO other than WOW a niche game, that could never do as well in the MMO market. Yes WOW has 9 million accounts and 3/4 of those are in the asian market, but so what, doesn't mean that a new and refreshing MMO can't take a lions share away from Blizzard in the Western and EU markets. WOW and it's 9 million is the worst thing that has ever happened to the MMO world.
Ignorancy at it's best.
This genre was dieing a slow death before WoW came out, MMO's had a horrible rep as did paying monthly for a game. WoW, no matter what you think about the game itself, has expanded the MMO market immensely to something before unthinkable.
All it takes is some new developer to come out with the next thing, something actually innovating and fun, but at least the market warrants investment now. Before, the market itself was pretty much not worth it.
(there's a delay on the impact ofcourse of several years once Blizzard's succes was verified before games will start popping up)
Your hilarious. WOW, a game that caters to pre-teens and pretty much steers you from lvl 1 to 70. Yep that's been so good for the mature MMO community. Not sure how old you are, but myself and i would imagine many others want more out of an online world than what WOW has to offer.
All i'm saying is, most of WOW's playerbase is in the asian market and i would assume most of them are nothing more than gold farmers. You only have about 3 to 3 1/2 million players from the West and the EU. It's not a far stretch to think that a new MMO coming out can't wipe the floor clean and take alot of those subs from Blizzard, in those 2 markets.
Calling any game other than WOW and niche game is just flat out uneducated.
Are you really this senseless?
Goldfarming is possible because of the currency differences. Goldselling in China is a waste at best.
You also didn't disprove anything about what I said. WoW grew the genre and actually gave it a future by making it an attractive investment market. Something it simply was *not* anymore before WoW strolled out. Now your misplaced opinion about the game or who it's aimed at (teens grow up by the way if you care to think a little further than just yesterday and today) was totally irrelevant to the point made.
and my age has passed the 2's in case you're actually that immature that you can't take a post on face value if it isn't posted by someone with a mature age, rather than based on the maturity of the content itself.
I get what you are saying. I will also agree that WOW brought in alot of new customers to the MMO community. The problem i have is, that's not always a good thing. Just because Blizzard has gone out and has done some superb marketing doesn't make the product they are selling good for the whole MMO community. You know at one time they were adds on TV for cigerettes as well, didn't change the fact that smoking those cancer sticks were harmful to your health.
The only thing WOW has done is made most dev companies develope games in a very linear fashion, that takes almost all thought process out of the players hands.
In your mind WOW has made the MMO game a more attractive investment, but in reality, MMO's weren't doing that bad before it came out. The big games had very healthy populations, and gameplay was way more than what you get now for the monthly fee.
I can't agree with the last statement unless you can come up with some better examples, I played Daoc for 3 years and I certainly don't feel it had more to offer than WoW ^^
Eh..god the fact i'm about to agree with Pheace is just down right weird...but...MMO's were NOT in good shape at all when WoW came around. As much as I hate to say it because I do not like WOW ...if they hadn't of come along and proved there's money to be made...most companies and investors would continue to turn a blind eye to MMOs.
MMO's have been niche gaming since the start...WoW just proved there's more out there if you make it accessable to everyone. Unfortantely they made alot of decisions in relation to the direction of the game after launch that just turned me off to the game so here I sit toying around waiting for WAR because its offering what I thought WoW was.
Most of the people I know that play wow are adults btw there are kids but their ratio to the population is much smaller than people think. Just alot of adults act like big children.
Please Refer to Doom Cat with all conspiracies & evil corporation complaints. He'll give you the simple explination of..WE"RE ALL DOOMED!
I wish someone would create a MMO that wasn't fantasy based that actualy could rival WoW. I have been playing since it came out and I'm just tired or the genera. I would be satisfied if Blizzard would create another MMO in another genera. Maby even from another of there popular games. Such as Starcraft. That would rock.
Well, they *are* working on another MMO.
Starcraft? You mean World of Warhammer 40k Online?
I wish someone would create a MMO that wasn't fantasy based that actualy could rival WoW. I have been playing since it came out and I'm just tired or the genera. I would be satisfied if Blizzard would create another MMO in another genera. Maby even from another of there popular games. Such as Starcraft. That would rock.
Well, they *are* working on another MMO.
Starcraft? You mean World of Warhammer 40k Online?
Blizzard is, they've been having "Next-Gen MMO" Job recruitions(sp?) on their site for over a year now.
I dunno but they actually do seem like they're copying WARs ideas. Correct me if Im wrong but the lich king expansion. Look at what they're putting in
- Huge PvP all out island
- Siege warefare
LOL sounds like WAR doesn't it?
LOL!
I read about the Lich King expansion and was thinking they should rename it:
World of Warhammer: Lich King Expansion with all-new Rv... oops, PvP and Siege Warfare!
WoW! And we still haven't been sued for trademark infringements for stealing Warhammer's artstyle!!! So, what the hell?! We'll take their Rv... heh, PvP and Siege Warfare ideas!!!
Woohoo! No wonder we got rich! We didn't have to pay for concept development! We just stole it!
I get what you are saying. I will also agree that WOW brought in alot of new customers to the MMO community. The problem i have is, that's not always a good thing. Just because Blizzard has gone out and has done some superb marketing doesn't make the product they are selling good for the whole MMO community. In your mind WOW has made the MMO game a more attractive investment, but in reality, MMO's weren't doing that bad before it came out. The big games had very healthy populations, and gameplay was way more than what you get now for the monthly fee.
Blizzard did more than just good marketing. They made a game that sold itself, something the MMORPG industry had utterly failed to do for more than a decade.
Don't try to re-write the history of the MMORPG genre. The old MMORPGs that you call "Big" were all considered jokes by the rest of gaming industry. The vast majority of gamer market wouldn't touch any of those games with 10-foot poles.
Succesful computer games were games like Civilization, Myst, Starcraft, Doom & Diablo. Those were games that sold in the millions. Outside of Korea and Lineage, none of the old generation MMORPGs came anywhere close. Everyone assumed no MMORPG could possible attain sales close to normal computer games, as though MMORPGs were somehow different rather than simply being another game.
It wasn't because there wasn't a market for this genre. It was because of the games MMORPG developers were producing.
The genre has finally been pushed into the mainstream by WoW. People continue to deride WoW in the face of it's overwhelming success but the fact is the old generation MMORPGs have been exposed for failing to attract any significant number of players. The players were always there, the games just weren't worth their money to play.
I will agree that WoW could have done it better. It is not a perfect game by any means and I've let my subscription lapse because of that.
But the next generation of games will build on the things WoW's did right, NOT by ignoring the evolution of the genre and going back to wretched mechanics of the old generation of MMORPGs.
IMO WAR will be interesting and i'm sure it'll do decently well, but I honestly can't see it being as popular as WOW. I can see it being a niche game. Players arn't so willing to give up characters they have devoted years to. I mean look at EQ1. In its prime it had like 200,000 players ( a lot during that time) and still some of those that played at day 1 are still playing. Why? They put to much time and effort into a game to just "give up" or play into the next best hyped game. People stick with what they enjoy. I think WAR may take a bit of WOWs glory, but not much. 1M tops is my estimate. The key is taking the western and EU market, but I just don't see WAR doing that entirely. With the lich king expansion bringing in many features WAR is supposed to be providing. Then what would be the incentive to leave WOW. The only real reasons I can see people leaving WOW for WAR is: Fans of WAR lore, People wanting a change of scenery, or people just bored with WOW. I think it'll turn out a decent game, but can't see it being a WOW killer. WOW will die when everyone stops enjoying it.. and Blizzard is a very very good company at making HIGHLY addictive games. I mean seriously I played Diablo1 & 2 for YEARS. Same for Starcraft. I'd still play if I didn't have Satellite internet. They're just fun and addictive games. Mythic did great with DAoC, but they ruined it. Hopefully they learned their lesson, but somehow I just doubt it. DAoC was their cash cow and they blew it. Then they lost the most awesome community representative they could have possibly ever had. Then they have the nerve to team up with EA.. the most hated.. game destroying company in history.. they're worse then freaken SOE. This is all just opinion and speculation though. I'll give the game a fair chance at release, but hey i'm not the kind of person that's going to wait for the game to improve. They got one chance to impress me or.. quite frankly can fk off. First month is KEY for me. If I can't enjoy a game from the beginning and need to gain 40 levels to have fun. Then the hell with it. A game needs to be fun from day 1. I'm just not into the cartoon style graphics, but as said.. i'll give it a fair chance. My sig has the 2 games i'm truely looking forward too though. IMO WAR will simply be a filler game for other things to come. Weither it's Aion or AoC or an expansion for AoC/Aion. WAR will simply fill the gap to pass time, but not something a ton of people will dedicate their time to. PVP is fun, but you seriously can't make that the primary selling point of your game. The general populas want other things to enjoy then just PVP. Look at any game and look at PVP server population compared to PVE... it's just no contest. PVE is what the general populas enjoy more.
I agree with some points you make here, but have to disagree with you on character attachment and lack of PVE you refer to in WAR. If you look at the zone maps for WAR you see that only a portion (about 25%) is zoned for open RvR. The rest of the map is obviously for PVE. They have stated numerous times that they focus on PVE and PVP equally. They have public quests, large capital cities, lairs, dungeons, quest lines, etc...
I don't think they have made PVP their primary focus in development, just their primary selling point as you say. Seems to me they just are selling the aspect of their game that differentiates it from the game that the majority compare it to.
Back to the character attachment. I have played many MMOs since Meridian 59/UO and I have known many people who have played toons for years only to turn around and sell or abandon them. I agree that there are some people who remain attached to their toons, I doubt the majority do (at least in the US, where replacing things is just second nature).
I don't agree with that at all. While they will put lot of PVE content ( especially at lower tier) , Tier 4 maps ( ie endgame) are 20% PVE , 80% RVR. The main focus will be pvp . Do not doubt that. I still expect lots of dungeons and lairs to be present for the PVE savvy at all tiers , but endgame ( and most of the game for thoses going pvp all the way , like me) rvr content will be much bigger than any pve content.. I base that on every video/podcast /interview I've read pointing to that conclusion.
I assure you, WAR nor AoC or any other game on the horizon is making Blizzard nervous.
I don't know if they are nervous . But they have maybe 3 mil subscribers left in NA/EU , so even if WAR and AoC does average with about 750-1m sub each . Damn they just lost some good money there. Not even blizzard want that. Even if they will still have a good 5 mill left with asia and the remaining NA/EU subscribers (which is still amazing) , they can't be happy about that.
I even believe both games will do even better ( but thats speculation on my part) . AoC around a 1,2 -1,5 mil and war around 2.5 mil are my guesses based on hype , appeal , marketing , beta apps and concepts.
As for wow expansion. No one that i knew since release day still play it . We all got burned out by raiding.( everything except Black temple) . All my pvp buddies and PVE guildmates are gone and none of em plan to come back for more grinding with the expansion. They all are waiting for a good new game. If Mythic or funcom don't mess up , they will be succesful .
750,000 to 1 million subs is not average for a Western MMO. I think nowadays 300,000 is a tremendous success. WoW is somewhat of an anomoly which I don't think we'll see anything the likes of again, at least in terms of widespread critical acclaim and popularity.
I think if WAR or AoC "does average", as the previous poster puts it, these games will reach 300,000 peak subs, and that will be a success for them.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
750,000 to 1 million subs is not average for a Western MMO. I think nowadays 300,000 is a tremendous success. WoW is somewhat of an anomoly which I don't think we'll see anything the likes of again, at least in terms of widespread critical acclaim and popularity. I think if WAR or AoC "does average", as the previous poster puts it, these games will reach 300,000 peak subs, and that will be a success for them.
Pretty sure its safe to say that WAR will average over 300,000 peak subs, considering they have almost twice that in beta applications. Not to forget players who don't necessarily enjoy playing beta, players who
spread by word of mouth to their friends about the game.
World of Warcraft can attribute its success to its appeal to the casual player, marketing, Blizzard's previous success as a company. I believe that while WAR will most certainly not reach the 9m "active" subscribers that Blizzard claims, they will probably have at least 2m accounts.
Why? Mythic has had previous success as a company, proving itself through DAOC. While the game wasn't perfect, I ask is WoW? Mythic also markets very well, not only do they inform potential players through regular podcasts, interviews, conventions etc, they do it in a way that is fun and simple, namely through quirky Paul. Finally, WAR's focus on PvP I think will attract the casual player as it demands alot less than PVE raiding.
WoWs success were based on the fact that most people do not like their games to be hard work.
Before WoW MMO's were mostly a niche for people who liked to dedicate a lot of their life to the game and feel gratified for the the rewards they got from that huge effort.
But most people in this world do not like to do great efforts to have fun. They want it served to them so they can relax after work. If its interactive then even better for many too.
Its often a similar thing you see at work. The greatest obstacle to develop a company is often that the employee dont want to move out of their cosy habbits. They will much rather stay and do the same safe things that have become a routine instead of taking up new challenges. The wast majority of humans prefer a safe, relaxed and cosy enviroment from challenges. Even though the challenges can give you great rewards.
WoWs developers simply understood this basic human principle and yet they also understood that for this to work in the long run they also had to put in some hard to get carrots so the few that really liked to strive for greater things could go for it and become special. Same as VIPs in the real world with the same social functions.
WAR is not really a challenger to the position WoW has. It targets a different and specific audience (like most serious new MMOs do). They are targeting the Warhammer fans and they are targeting those who like RvR (which is different from PvP). And they are building the entire game world around the WaR between sides.
This means that WaR will have its special audience, just like pirates of the burning sea will have its special audience and they will often not be the same people that is the wast majority of WoWs players. The biggest mistake of AoC is that FunCom is trying to make the game too mainstream fantasy MMO (despite the gore and tits) so they will have to compete with Blizard for the customers which is a one sided battle. EA Mythic is smarter.
"You are the hero our legends have foretold will save our tribe, therefore please go kill 10 pigs."
I'm all for WAR, but I believe "The Lich King" trailer that featured siege warfare came out long before they announced siege in WAR.
I'm pretty sure it wasn't, as far as I can remember since WAR was announced seige and world PvP was one of the major features. If not then it was certainly expected since Mythic was making the game. I never even heard a thing about siege in WoW until a couple of weeks ago.
Edit: As for WoW subscriber numbers, the only aknowledged subscribers figures are from Asia. Blizzard has been very secretive about exactly how many active accounts they have in the US, Europe and Australia. the 9 million may well be just the number that have bought the game and at some point paid for a subscription. The amount of playtime these accounts use is also debatable, not everyone is playing 20+ hours a week, so if WAR, AoC and others can take away even a few thousand active subscriptions via casual gamers then it's a blow to Blizzard since casual gamers probably make up a large chunk of WoWs subscribers.
Of course nobody outside the industry knows any solid facts about this so it's all pure speculation, even if Blizz did take a hit they would still PR it like they had 9 million subsribers regardless of whether those accounts were active or not.
tl;dr WoW might have millions of people with accounts but not every single one of them is neccesarily active.
Sorry but you're mistaken. Look at the press release and you'll see they count only active subscribers.
World of Warcraft's Subscriber Definition
World of Warcraft subscribers include individuals who have paid a subscription fee or have an active prepaid card to play World of Warcraft, as well as those who have purchased the game and are within their free month of access. Internet Game Room players who have accessed the game over the last thirty days are also counted as subscribers. The above definition excludes all players under free promotional subscriptions, expired or cancelled subscriptions, and expired prepaid cards. Subscribers in licensees’ territories are defined along the same rules.
On top of that, in their 8 million subscriber milestone press release, they broke down their subscriber demographics too, it's safe to assume this wouldn't change much over time.
Player population in North America now exceeds 2 million, while Europe and China pass the 1.5 million player and 3.5 million player marks, respectively
WoWs success were based on the fact that most people do not like their games to be hard work. Before WoW MMO's were mostly a niche for people who liked to dedicate a lot of their life to the game and feel gratified for the the rewards they got from that huge effort. But most people in this world do not like to do great efforts to have fun. They want it served to them so they can relax after work. If its interactive then even better for many too. Its often a similar thing you see at work. The greatest obstacle to develop a company is often that the employee dont want to move out of their cosy habbits. They will much rather stay and do the same safe things that have become a routine instead of taking up new challenges. The wast majority of humans prefer a safe, relaxed and cosy enviroment from challenges. Even though the challenges can give you great rewards. WoWs developers simply understood this basic human principle and yet they also understood that for this to work in the long run they also had to put in some hard to get carrots so the few that really liked to strive for greater things could go for it and become special. Same as VIPs in the real world with the same social functions. WAR is not really a challenger to the position WoW has. It targets a different and specific audience (like most serious new MMOs do). They are targeting the Warhammer fans and they are targeting those who like RvR (which is different from PvP). And they are building the entire game world around the WaR between sides. This means that WaR will have its special audience, just like pirates of the burning sea will have its special audience and they will often not be the same people that is the wast majority of WoWs players. The biggest mistake of AoC is that FunCom is trying to make the game too mainstream fantasy MMO (despite the gore and tits) so they will have to compete with Blizard for the customers which is a one sided battle. EA Mythic is smarter.
While I agree with some of what you've said, I do disagree with a few things.
Firstly, while I believe that part of WoW's big success has been due to Blizzard's reputation & previous popular games it has released, and acknowledge that it has a comanding lead over the MMO market, I still think that WAR will make some type of impact on them. There are either alot of ignorant people, or people who act ignorant to Blizzard boasting 9m "active" subs. This total is infact total number of accounts, not active. You'll probably find that while they still hold a commanding lead in subs, which would be those either loyal to Blizzard, vet players, or even those who are waiting for new MMO's to be released (WAR,TCOS,AOC), it is most likely WoW has peaked. With the release of their first expansion, what did they bring to the table after a two year development... hardly enough to brag about.
I don't believe that WAR is targetting a specfic audience. I know that alot of Warhammer fans will buy the game. I know that alot of ex-DAOC players will buy the game. What people need to release is that while the game is majorally PVP focused, it still will draw numbers. How do I come up with this? Well take for instance WoW's recent improvements in the PVP system, not to mention Arena PvP. Blizzard is starting to realise the importance of PVP to players, and not just be single-minded on PVE content. Look at when WoW was released, their was hardly a PVP system at all.
I think what you said about humans liking routine and whats safe is true. Though the great thing about Mythic is that they have had the option to learn from Blizzard's mistakes and can step out of that comfort zone. Take for instance Beta periods. WoW beta was realesed, stress tests were done YET on release they could not meet the demand, the servers crashed, there were alot of bugs & problems. WAR is learning from that mistake by delaying the release of the game - pushing it from Q4 2007 to Q2 2008. Some might say this is risky as with delaying a game, people loose hype. Personally though, I think people will benefit from the delay, as Im sure that most of you having experience with the release of WoW and how buggy it was, you would prefer a much smoother launch with less bugs and less downtime.
Not only are they doing this but they are taking elements of MMO's that people are attracted too and improving on them - like PVP. If you have watched the WAR podcasts you will notice they have made a more than decent effort and took alot of time to plan a structured and logical method to RVR/PVP. Balance. Something that every WoW player has spoken of before. Again they can step out of the familiar comfort zone because they have trialed this with DAOC and have met success.
It is for these small things that I can safely place my conclusion on that WAR will be a success. I think WOW will not necessarily loose alot of it's player base, though its almost definate that there will be alot who will try WAR, time will tell..
Nobody is copying WAR as its not even out yet and all the footage looks like ass anyway. If anything WAR is attempting to replicate popluar aspects of other favored mmorpgs. Nothing WAR is doing is new in terms of mmorpgs. I dont see what all the hype is about WAR other than the history of the board game etc.
i hope this is a joke cause if this is serious then you know nothing of warhammer
first off public quest ... NO MMO has this in this decent form.
the pvp... Mythic was the ground setter for this kind of pvp so they are copying NO ONE but themselfs
(dark age of camelot)
the tome of knowledge (don't know if this is correctly writen) this is something so huge and awesome and i have never seen it like this
CITY SIEGE tell me what other mmo has this ? can you litterly SACK there home town? i mean everyone has there laughs when you see a bunch of morons trying to enter orgrimar. thats all funny and stuff but i mean killing thrall? who cares
if by any of all the mmos out there have this in there game (the only thing i doubt about is the tome) that mmo must have done it really crappy cause i can't remember it and i played the best mmos there are
(anarchy online, asherons call, city of heroes & villians, d&d online, dark age of camelot, dark and light, eve online, everquest 1 & 2, ff11, guildwars (lol @ "mmo"), hellgate london(lol @ guildwarsmmo), horizons, kinght online, lineage 2, lotro, matrix online, planetside, rf online, ragnarok online, the saga of zyrom, shadowbane, ultima online, wow, (that chinese fighting game), (some stupid looking game like maple story) and pbb even more)
instead of saying stuff like this maybe you should follow warhammer a bit more before you even THINK of saying something like that
the only thing they really copy is everquest 1 and ultima like ALL THE OTHER MMOS (yes even wow)
and the only thing they copy is the basic shit like walking around in a 3d world where you can quest and live and do all this stuff
and btw on topic: blizzard doesn't fear anyone i mean even if warhammer was better no way in hell will 9 million people just switch : worst case ever is that they will lose max 2 million people. they will stil have more then 7 million people in there game so who cares about that 2 million.
ps: i am so tired of people talking trash about games when they haven't even tried most of them or don't know shit about them
pss: sorry about going a bit out of control i am not a hardcore warhammer fan cause tbh i loved wow like any other of the 9 million people (though it gets boring after having 7 lvl 60+ chars this is done over a time span of more then 2 years btw)
psss: and yes maybe i am a mmo"nerd" or mmo"freak" but hey these games are the best out there then seeing stupid fps games over and over and over and over and over and over ... talk about copying other games
Comments
I'm pretty sure it wasn't, as far as I can remember since WAR was announced seige and world PvP was one of the major features. If not then it was certainly expected since Mythic was making the game. I never even heard a thing about siege in WoW until a couple of weeks ago.
Edit: As for WoW subscriber numbers, the only aknowledged subscribers figures are from Asia. Blizzard has been very secretive about exactly how many active accounts they have in the US, Europe and Australia. the 9 million may well be just the number that have bought the game and at some point paid for a subscription. The amount of playtime these accounts use is also debatable, not everyone is playing 20+ hours a week, so if WAR, AoC and others can take away even a few thousand active subscriptions via casual gamers then it's a blow to Blizzard since casual gamers probably make up a large chunk of WoWs subscribers.
Of course nobody outside the industry knows any solid facts about this so it's all pure speculation, even if Blizz did take a hit they would still PR it like they had 9 million subsribers regardless of whether those accounts were active or not.
tl;dr WoW might have millions of people with accounts but not every single one of them is neccesarily active.
WoW was claiming to have siege well before it released, it just never did.
I'm pretty sure it wasn't, as far as I can remember since WAR was announced seige and world PvP was one of the major features. If not then it was certainly expected since Mythic was making the game. I never even heard a thing about siege in WoW until a couple of weeks ago.
Edit: As for WoW subscriber numbers, the only aknowledged subscribers figures are from Asia. Blizzard has been very secretive about exactly how many active accounts they have in the US, Europe and Australia. the 9 million may well be just the number that have bought the game and at some point paid for a subscription. The amount of playtime these accounts use is also debatable, not everyone is playing 20+ hours a week, so if WAR, AoC and others can take away even a few thousand active subscriptions via casual gamers then it's a blow to Blizzard since casual gamers probably make up a large chunk of WoWs subscribers.
Of course nobody outside the industry knows any solid facts about this so it's all pure speculation, even if Blizz did take a hit they would still PR it like they had 9 million subsribers regardless of whether those accounts were active or not.
tl;dr WoW might have millions of people with accounts but not every single one of them is neccesarily active.
WoW was claiming to have siege well before it released, it just never did.
Pheace is correct - WoW did advertise on the box that it had sieges, or some such thing.
I guess they just forgot to add that it would be implemented 4 years or so later, but hey, they got around to it! :P
You know, WoW implementing similar concepts as WAR in a limited way may actually help WAR, in the long run. If people like that aspect of WoW they may head to WAR for more of it.
I wish someone would create a MMO that wasn't fantasy based that actualy could rival WoW. I have been playing since it came out and I'm just tired or the genera. I would be satisfied if Blizzard would create another MMO in another genera. Maby even from another of there popular games. Such as Starcraft. That would rock.
Ignorancy at it's best.
This genre was dieing a slow death before WoW came out, MMO's had a horrible rep as did paying monthly for a game. WoW, no matter what you think about the game itself, has expanded the MMO market immensely to something before unthinkable.
All it takes is some new developer to come out with the next thing, something actually innovating and fun, but at least the market warrants investment now. Before, the market itself was pretty much not worth it.
(there's a delay on the impact ofcourse of several years once Blizzard's succes was verified before games will start popping up)
Your hilarious. WOW, a game that caters to pre-teens and pretty much steers you from lvl 1 to 70. Yep that's been so good for the mature MMO community. Not sure how old you are, but myself and i would imagine many others want more out of an online world than what WOW has to offer.
All i'm saying is, most of WOW's playerbase is in the asian market and i would assume most of them are nothing more than gold farmers. You only have about 3 to 3 1/2 million players from the West and the EU. It's not a far stretch to think that a new MMO coming out can't wipe the floor clean and take alot of those subs from Blizzard, in those 2 markets.
Calling any game other than WOW and niche game is just flat out uneducated.
Well, they *are* working on another MMO.
Sorry, but OP==Clueless
WAR will be successfull.
But not so much as to put a dent in WoW numbers.
Remember, MMORPGs limp along with 20,000 subscribers (DAoC) for years. Some never even get close to 100,000 (EVE) and are considered 'strong' AAA titles. Old dogs like EQ and AO are still going.
WoW has nearly 10 MILLION paying subscribers !
To think that any title is going to take that away (except maybe World of Starcraft) would be just plain silly.
Ignorancy at it's best.
This genre was dieing a slow death before WoW came out, MMO's had a horrible rep as did paying monthly for a game. WoW, no matter what you think about the game itself, has expanded the MMO market immensely to something before unthinkable.
All it takes is some new developer to come out with the next thing, something actually innovating and fun, but at least the market warrants investment now. Before, the market itself was pretty much not worth it.
(there's a delay on the impact ofcourse of several years once Blizzard's succes was verified before games will start popping up)
Your hilarious. WOW, a game that caters to pre-teens and pretty much steers you from lvl 1 to 70. Yep that's been so good for the mature MMO community. Not sure how old you are, but myself and i would imagine many others want more out of an online world than what WOW has to offer.
All i'm saying is, most of WOW's playerbase is in the asian market and i would assume most of them are nothing more than gold farmers. You only have about 3 to 3 1/2 million players from the West and the EU. It's not a far stretch to think that a new MMO coming out can't wipe the floor clean and take alot of those subs from Blizzard, in those 2 markets.
Calling any game other than WOW and niche game is just flat out uneducated.
Are you really this senseless?
Goldfarming is possible because of the currency differences. Goldselling in China is a waste at best.
You also didn't disprove anything about what I said. WoW grew the genre and actually gave it a future by making it an attractive investment market. Something it simply was *not* anymore before WoW strolled out. Now your misplaced opinion about the game or who it's aimed at (teens grow up by the way if you care to think a little further than just yesterday and today) was totally irrelevant to the point made.
and my age has passed the 2's in case you're actually that immature that you can't take a post on face value if it isn't posted by someone with a mature age, rather than based on the maturity of the content itself.
Any news on what MMO they *are* working on? I swear to god if its fantasy I will drive there and kick everyones ass with my super sword of a thousand ass kickings.
Ignorancy at it's best.
This genre was dieing a slow death before WoW came out, MMO's had a horrible rep as did paying monthly for a game. WoW, no matter what you think about the game itself, has expanded the MMO market immensely to something before unthinkable.
All it takes is some new developer to come out with the next thing, something actually innovating and fun, but at least the market warrants investment now. Before, the market itself was pretty much not worth it.
(there's a delay on the impact ofcourse of several years once Blizzard's succes was verified before games will start popping up)
Your hilarious. WOW, a game that caters to pre-teens and pretty much steers you from lvl 1 to 70. Yep that's been so good for the mature MMO community. Not sure how old you are, but myself and i would imagine many others want more out of an online world than what WOW has to offer.
All i'm saying is, most of WOW's playerbase is in the asian market and i would assume most of them are nothing more than gold farmers. You only have about 3 to 3 1/2 million players from the West and the EU. It's not a far stretch to think that a new MMO coming out can't wipe the floor clean and take alot of those subs from Blizzard, in those 2 markets.
Calling any game other than WOW and niche game is just flat out uneducated.
Are you really this senseless?
Goldfarming is possible because of the currency differences. Goldselling in China is a waste at best.
You also didn't disprove anything about what I said. WoW grew the genre and actually gave it a future by making it an attractive investment market. Something it simply was *not* anymore before WoW strolled out. Now your misplaced opinion about the game or who it's aimed at (teens grow up by the way if you care to think a little further than just yesterday and today) was totally irrelevant to the point made.
and my age has passed the 2's in case you're actually that immature that you can't take a post on face value if it isn't posted by someone with a mature age, rather than based on the maturity of the content itself.
I get what you are saying. I will also agree that WOW brought in alot of new customers to the MMO community. The problem i have is, that's not always a good thing. Just because Blizzard has gone out and has done some superb marketing doesn't make the product they are selling good for the whole MMO community. You know at one time they were adds on TV for cigerettes as well, didn't change the fact that smoking those cancer sticks were harmful to your health.
The only thing WOW has done is made most dev companies develope games in a very linear fashion, that takes almost all thought process out of the players hands.
In your mind WOW has made the MMO game a more attractive investment, but in reality, MMO's weren't doing that bad before it came out. The big games had very healthy populations, and gameplay was way more than what you get now for the monthly fee.
Ignorancy at it's best.
This genre was dieing a slow death before WoW came out, MMO's had a horrible rep as did paying monthly for a game. WoW, no matter what you think about the game itself, has expanded the MMO market immensely to something before unthinkable.
All it takes is some new developer to come out with the next thing, something actually innovating and fun, but at least the market warrants investment now. Before, the market itself was pretty much not worth it.
(there's a delay on the impact ofcourse of several years once Blizzard's succes was verified before games will start popping up)
Your hilarious. WOW, a game that caters to pre-teens and pretty much steers you from lvl 1 to 70. Yep that's been so good for the mature MMO community. Not sure how old you are, but myself and i would imagine many others want more out of an online world than what WOW has to offer.
All i'm saying is, most of WOW's playerbase is in the asian market and i would assume most of them are nothing more than gold farmers. You only have about 3 to 3 1/2 million players from the West and the EU. It's not a far stretch to think that a new MMO coming out can't wipe the floor clean and take alot of those subs from Blizzard, in those 2 markets.
Calling any game other than WOW and niche game is just flat out uneducated.
Are you really this senseless?
Goldfarming is possible because of the currency differences. Goldselling in China is a waste at best.
You also didn't disprove anything about what I said. WoW grew the genre and actually gave it a future by making it an attractive investment market. Something it simply was *not* anymore before WoW strolled out. Now your misplaced opinion about the game or who it's aimed at (teens grow up by the way if you care to think a little further than just yesterday and today) was totally irrelevant to the point made.
and my age has passed the 2's in case you're actually that immature that you can't take a post on face value if it isn't posted by someone with a mature age, rather than based on the maturity of the content itself.
I get what you are saying. I will also agree that WOW brought in alot of new customers to the MMO community. The problem i have is, that's not always a good thing. Just because Blizzard has gone out and has done some superb marketing doesn't make the product they are selling good for the whole MMO community. You know at one time they were adds on TV for cigerettes as well, didn't change the fact that smoking those cancer sticks were harmful to your health.
The only thing WOW has done is made most dev companies develope games in a very linear fashion, that takes almost all thought process out of the players hands.
In your mind WOW has made the MMO game a more attractive investment, but in reality, MMO's weren't doing that bad before it came out. The big games had very healthy populations, and gameplay was way more than what you get now for the monthly fee.
I can't agree with the last statement unless you can come up with some better examples, I played Daoc for 3 years and I certainly don't feel it had more to offer than WoW ^^
Eh..god the fact i'm about to agree with Pheace is just down right weird...but...MMO's were NOT in good shape at all when WoW came around. As much as I hate to say it because I do not like WOW ...if they hadn't of come along and proved there's money to be made...most companies and investors would continue to turn a blind eye to MMOs.
MMO's have been niche gaming since the start...WoW just proved there's more out there if you make it accessable to everyone. Unfortantely they made alot of decisions in relation to the direction of the game after launch that just turned me off to the game so here I sit toying around waiting for WAR because its offering what I thought WoW was.
Most of the people I know that play wow are adults btw there are kids but their ratio to the population is much smaller than people think. Just alot of adults act like big children.
Please Refer to Doom Cat with all conspiracies & evil corporation complaints. He'll give you the simple explination of..WE"RE ALL DOOMED!
Well, they *are* working on another MMO.
Starcraft? You mean World of Warhammer 40k Online?
Well, they *are* working on another MMO.
Starcraft? You mean World of Warhammer 40k Online?
Blizzard is, they've been having "Next-Gen MMO" Job recruitions(sp?) on their site for over a year now.
"...the MMO genre was dieing a slow death before WOW came out."
I suggest you stop smoking that stuff.
LOL!
I read about the Lich King expansion and was thinking they should rename it:
World of Warhammer: Lich King Expansion with all-new Rv... oops, PvP and Siege Warfare!
WoW! And we still haven't been sued for trademark infringements for stealing Warhammer's artstyle!!! So, what the hell?! We'll take their Rv... heh, PvP and Siege Warfare ideas!!!
Woohoo! No wonder we got rich! We didn't have to pay for concept development! We just stole it!
~ Ancient Membership ~
Blizzard did more than just good marketing. They made a game that sold itself, something the MMORPG industry had utterly failed to do for more than a decade.
Don't try to re-write the history of the MMORPG genre. The old MMORPGs that you call "Big" were all considered jokes by the rest of gaming industry. The vast majority of gamer market wouldn't touch any of those games with 10-foot poles.
Succesful computer games were games like Civilization, Myst, Starcraft, Doom & Diablo. Those were games that sold in the millions. Outside of Korea and Lineage, none of the old generation MMORPGs came anywhere close. Everyone assumed no MMORPG could possible attain sales close to normal computer games, as though MMORPGs were somehow different rather than simply being another game.
It wasn't because there wasn't a market for this genre. It was because of the games MMORPG developers were producing.
The genre has finally been pushed into the mainstream by WoW. People continue to deride WoW in the face of it's overwhelming success but the fact is the old generation MMORPGs have been exposed for failing to attract any significant number of players. The players were always there, the games just weren't worth their money to play.
I will agree that WoW could have done it better. It is not a perfect game by any means and I've let my subscription lapse because of that.
But the next generation of games will build on the things WoW's did right, NOT by ignoring the evolution of the genre and going back to wretched mechanics of the old generation of MMORPGs.
I don't think they have made PVP their primary focus in development, just their primary selling point as you say. Seems to me they just are selling the aspect of their game that differentiates it from the game that the majority compare it to.
Back to the character attachment. I have played many MMOs since Meridian 59/UO and I have known many people who have played toons for years only to turn around and sell or abandon them. I agree that there are some people who remain attached to their toons, I doubt the majority do (at least in the US, where replacing things is just second nature).
I don't agree with that at all. While they will put lot of PVE content ( especially at lower tier) , Tier 4 maps ( ie endgame) are 20% PVE , 80% RVR. The main focus will be pvp . Do not doubt that. I still expect lots of dungeons and lairs to be present for the PVE savvy at all tiers , but endgame ( and most of the game for thoses going pvp all the way , like me) rvr content will be much bigger than any pve content.. I base that on every video/podcast /interview I've read pointing to that conclusion.
http://revolutionwar.guildlaunch.com/
I assure you, WAR nor AoC or any other game on the horizon is making Blizzard nervous.
|Mortal Online|Gnostaria|
I don't know if they are nervous . But they have maybe 3 mil subscribers left in NA/EU , so even if WAR and AoC does average with about 750-1m sub each . Damn they just lost some good money there. Not even blizzard want that. Even if they will still have a good 5 mill left with asia and the remaining NA/EU subscribers (which is still amazing) , they can't be happy about that.
I even believe both games will do even better ( but thats speculation on my part) . AoC around a 1,2 -1,5 mil and war around 2.5 mil are my guesses based on hype , appeal , marketing , beta apps and concepts.
As for wow expansion. No one that i knew since release day still play it . We all got burned out by raiding.( everything except Black temple) . All my pvp buddies and PVE guildmates are gone and none of em plan to come back for more grinding with the expansion. They all are waiting for a good new game. If Mythic or funcom don't mess up , they will be succesful .
http://revolutionwar.guildlaunch.com/
750,000 to 1 million subs is not average for a Western MMO. I think nowadays 300,000 is a tremendous success. WoW is somewhat of an anomoly which I don't think we'll see anything the likes of again, at least in terms of widespread critical acclaim and popularity.
I think if WAR or AoC "does average", as the previous poster puts it, these games will reach 300,000 peak subs, and that will be a success for them.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
Pretty sure its safe to say that WAR will average over 300,000 peak subs, considering they have almost twice that in beta applications. Not to forget players who don't necessarily enjoy playing beta, players who
spread by word of mouth to their friends about the game.
World of Warcraft can attribute its success to its appeal to the casual player, marketing, Blizzard's previous success as a company. I believe that while WAR will most certainly not reach the 9m "active" subscribers that Blizzard claims, they will probably have at least 2m accounts.
Why? Mythic has had previous success as a company, proving itself through DAOC. While the game wasn't perfect, I ask is WoW? Mythic also markets very well, not only do they inform potential players through regular podcasts, interviews, conventions etc, they do it in a way that is fun and simple, namely through quirky Paul. Finally, WAR's focus on PvP I think will attract the casual player as it demands alot less than PVE raiding.
Just my two cents..
WoWs success were based on the fact that most people do not like their games to be hard work.
Before WoW MMO's were mostly a niche for people who liked to dedicate a lot of their life to the game and feel gratified for the the rewards they got from that huge effort.
But most people in this world do not like to do great efforts to have fun. They want it served to them so they can relax after work. If its interactive then even better for many too.
Its often a similar thing you see at work. The greatest obstacle to develop a company is often that the employee dont want to move out of their cosy habbits. They will much rather stay and do the same safe things that have become a routine instead of taking up new challenges. The wast majority of humans prefer a safe, relaxed and cosy enviroment from challenges. Even though the challenges can give you great rewards.
WoWs developers simply understood this basic human principle and yet they also understood that for this to work in the long run they also had to put in some hard to get carrots so the few that really liked to strive for greater things could go for it and become special. Same as VIPs in the real world with the same social functions.
WAR is not really a challenger to the position WoW has. It targets a different and specific audience (like most serious new MMOs do). They are targeting the Warhammer fans and they are targeting those who like RvR (which is different from PvP). And they are building the entire game world around the WaR between sides.
This means that WaR will have its special audience, just like pirates of the burning sea will have its special audience and they will often not be the same people that is the wast majority of WoWs players. The biggest mistake of AoC is that FunCom is trying to make the game too mainstream fantasy MMO (despite the gore and tits) so they will have to compete with Blizard for the customers which is a one sided battle. EA Mythic is smarter.
"You are the hero our legends have foretold will save our tribe, therefore please go kill 10 pigs."
Sorry but you're mistaken. Look at the press release and you'll see they count only active subscribers.
http://www.blizzard.com/press/070724.shtml
On top of that, in their 8 million subscriber milestone press release, they broke down their subscriber demographics too, it's safe to assume this wouldn't change much over time.
http://www.blizzard.com/press/070111.shtml
While I agree with some of what you've said, I do disagree with a few things.
Firstly, while I believe that part of WoW's big success has been due to Blizzard's reputation & previous popular games it has released, and acknowledge that it has a comanding lead over the MMO market, I still think that WAR will make some type of impact on them. There are either alot of ignorant people, or people who act ignorant to Blizzard boasting 9m "active" subs. This total is infact total number of accounts, not active. You'll probably find that while they still hold a commanding lead in subs, which would be those either loyal to Blizzard, vet players, or even those who are waiting for new MMO's to be released (WAR,TCOS,AOC), it is most likely WoW has peaked. With the release of their first expansion, what did they bring to the table after a two year development... hardly enough to brag about.
I don't believe that WAR is targetting a specfic audience. I know that alot of Warhammer fans will buy the game. I know that alot of ex-DAOC players will buy the game. What people need to release is that while the game is majorally PVP focused, it still will draw numbers. How do I come up with this? Well take for instance WoW's recent improvements in the PVP system, not to mention Arena PvP. Blizzard is starting to realise the importance of PVP to players, and not just be single-minded on PVE content. Look at when WoW was released, their was hardly a PVP system at all.
I think what you said about humans liking routine and whats safe is true. Though the great thing about Mythic is that they have had the option to learn from Blizzard's mistakes and can step out of that comfort zone. Take for instance Beta periods. WoW beta was realesed, stress tests were done YET on release they could not meet the demand, the servers crashed, there were alot of bugs & problems. WAR is learning from that mistake by delaying the release of the game - pushing it from Q4 2007 to Q2 2008. Some might say this is risky as with delaying a game, people loose hype. Personally though, I think people will benefit from the delay, as Im sure that most of you having experience with the release of WoW and how buggy it was, you would prefer a much smoother launch with less bugs and less downtime.
Not only are they doing this but they are taking elements of MMO's that people are attracted too and improving on them - like PVP. If you have watched the WAR podcasts you will notice they have made a more than decent effort and took alot of time to plan a structured and logical method to RVR/PVP. Balance. Something that every WoW player has spoken of before. Again they can step out of the familiar comfort zone because they have trialed this with DAOC and have met success.
It is for these small things that I can safely place my conclusion on that WAR will be a success. I think WOW will not necessarily loose alot of it's player base, though its almost definate that there will be alot who will try WAR, time will tell..
i hope this is a joke cause if this is serious then you know nothing of warhammer
first off public quest ... NO MMO has this in this decent form.
the pvp... Mythic was the ground setter for this kind of pvp so they are copying NO ONE but themselfs
(dark age of camelot)
the tome of knowledge (don't know if this is correctly writen) this is something so huge and awesome and i have never seen it like this
CITY SIEGE tell me what other mmo has this ? can you litterly SACK there home town? i mean everyone has there laughs when you see a bunch of morons trying to enter orgrimar. thats all funny and stuff but i mean killing thrall? who cares
if by any of all the mmos out there have this in there game (the only thing i doubt about is the tome) that mmo must have done it really crappy cause i can't remember it and i played the best mmos there are
(anarchy online, asherons call, city of heroes & villians, d&d online, dark age of camelot, dark and light, eve online, everquest 1 & 2, ff11, guildwars (lol @ "mmo"), hellgate london(lol @ guildwarsmmo), horizons, kinght online, lineage 2, lotro, matrix online, planetside, rf online, ragnarok online, the saga of zyrom, shadowbane, ultima online, wow, (that chinese fighting game), (some stupid looking game like maple story) and pbb even more)
instead of saying stuff like this maybe you should follow warhammer a bit more before you even THINK of saying something like that
the only thing they really copy is everquest 1 and ultima like ALL THE OTHER MMOS (yes even wow)
and the only thing they copy is the basic shit like walking around in a 3d world where you can quest and live and do all this stuff
and btw on topic: blizzard doesn't fear anyone i mean even if warhammer was better no way in hell will 9 million people just switch : worst case ever is that they will lose max 2 million people. they will stil have more then 7 million people in there game so who cares about that 2 million.
and btw warhammer != wow... wow = PVE, warhammer = PVP
ps: i am so tired of people talking trash about games when they haven't even tried most of them or don't know shit about them
pss: sorry about going a bit out of control
i am not a hardcore warhammer fan cause tbh i loved wow like any other of the 9 million people (though it gets boring after having 7 lvl 60+ chars 
this is done over a time span of more then 2 years btw)
psss: and yes maybe i am a mmo"nerd" or mmo"freak" but hey these games are the best out there then seeing stupid fps games over and over and over and over and over and over ... talk about copying other games