That chart seems fine to me if you include the version without WoW in it that way everything isn't bunched together at the bottom. http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2.html
Does Tabula Rasa really have 125,000 subscribers? It seems a litle excessive to me.
I agree.
Although I think MMOGdata make fairly accurate estimates for many titles, I will like to know where the Tabula Rasa figure was obtained or what led to the assumption - if it was a guess. I personally have Tabula Rasa at 30,000 to 40,000 subscribers.
Originally posted by JonMichael Originally posted by Vincenz I think it's amazing that anyone gives this site any credibility...at all.
QFT.
Well at least the publicly known numbers are correct.
And when he actually does a guess, he rates the confidence as "D"
Perhaps you flamers are a bunch of fanbois and on his chart your game underperformes?
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site : http://mmodata.blogspot.be/ Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
I think it's amazing that anyone gives this site any credibility...at all.
QFT.
Well at least the publicly known numbers are correct.
And when he actually does a guess, he rates the confidence as "D"
Perhaps you flamers are a bunch of fanbois and on his chart your game underperformes?
No, we just recognize a turd when we see one, and MMOGchart is one. Again, the only time that site is correct is when it has info already published in other public places. If the numbers aren't posted officially, the dude has no clue and puts whatever number he thinks is right at that moment. I'd get better info from a broken Magic 8 Ball.
Originally posted by curiindi Originally posted by Kyntor Originally posted by HYPERI0N That chart seems fine to me if you include the version without WoW in it that way everything isn't bunched together at the bottom. http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2.html
Does Tabula Rasa really have 125,000 subscribers? It seems a litle excessive to me.
I agree. Although I think MMOGdata make fairly accurate estimates for many titles, I will like to know where the Tabula Rasa figure was obtained or what led to the assumption - if it was a guess. I personally have Tabula Rasa at 30,000 to 40,000 subscribers.
Now you are talking about mmogdata, which is a site that has nothing to do with mmogchart.com.
mmogdata is an actual site with totally bogus information, mixing "active subscriber numbers" and "characters ever created" in the same charts.
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site : http://mmodata.blogspot.be/ Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
Does Tabula Rasa really have 125,000 subscribers? It seems a litle excessive to me.
I agree.
Although I think MMOGdata make fairly accurate estimates for many titles, I will like to know where the Tabula Rasa figure was obtained or what led to the assumption - if it was a guess. I personally have Tabula Rasa at 30,000 to 40,000 subscribers.
Now you are talking about mmogdata, which is a site that has nothing to do with mmogchart.com.
mmogdata is an actual site with totally bogus information, mixing "active subscriber numbers" and "characters ever created" in the same charts.
Oops, I meant to say MMOGchart; nonetheless, I will like to know how that number came about.
I don't need to dispute them, the only ones that have any factual basis are ones that are publicly released and we all discuss on this site. The rest are simply made up. He has no experience or qualifications to make "EDUCATED" guesses that you and I don't have. So instead of believing his pie charts, just make up your own...it has just as much foundation. Official Corporate Data, Corporate Press Releases, Corporate Documents, News Articles, and Public Comments...those are available to everyone and are already talked about every time they come out right here on this site. That leaves "Anonymous Sources" and "Educated Guesses". So again, apart from the numbers we all know already...the rest are just made up. Again, your own guesses of game populations prior to this "BIG RELEASE" were just as accurate as this guy's. p.s. LOL...I don't know grim, I have just gotten tired of hearing people quote this thing like the MMO bible every time there's an argument about who's "MMO IS WINNING" over the last couple years
What exactly do you have against this guy anyway Vincenz? Everyone here is capable of reading his biography and coming to their own conclusion about the veracity of his report. We really don't need you to explain it to us. Honestly. You've said your piece...like 15 times now. We get it. You don't believe the numbers. Thanks. The first time you posted I appreciated your opinion. Now I'm just starting to just tune you out and skip thru your posts. You're not helping your case anymore.
Launched on October 30, 2007, Richard Garriott’s Tabula Rasa was a highly-anticipated sci-fi themed MMORPG from NCSoft. So far, the game has been somewhat less successful than expected. NCSoft did not break out subscriber numbers for Tabula Rasa in their quarterly report, but based upon revenue figures provided I estimate that as of December 2007 Tabula Rasa had approximately 125,000 susbcribers. However, depending on whether or not TR is growing or shrinking, the actual number of current subscribers is probably somewhere between 75,000 and 150,000. NCSoft’s projection for TR in 2008 is between 80,000 and 100,000 subscribers.
Some people are still emotionally invested in the fact that their crappy game of choice isn't heavily subscribed to.
In every country and in every age, the priest has been hostile to liberty. He is always in alliance with the despot, abetting his abuses in return for protection to his own.
Shows that wow is more a phenomenon than a normal game.
Pity he did not get updates for all games and some seem more like educated guesses than facts, but still it shows trends and is not to be taken as 100% accurat.
EQ1 and EQ2 both have less than 200k subscribers each. SWG has less than 100k subscribers, one of the strongest brands of all time. How pathetic. All of SOE's games combined are less than 4% total MMOG sales. Why does Smedley still have a job?
EQ1 and EQ2 both have less than 200k subscribers each. SWG has less than 100k subscribers, one of the strongest brands of all time. How pathetic. All of SOE's games combined are less than 4% total MMOG sales. Why does Smedley still have a job?
And again, these are purely guesses...so why are you quoting them like they're facts?
Although I might agree with most of your points, Vincenz, as I've never been much for 'guesstimates" or "secret sources" for this type of thing, what is it with you and a college degree? I hardly see how that's relevant at all. You seem to have a real bias against people who don't have a university degree. It seems rather odd.
By the way, I'm willing to bet that Bruce wrote his wiki entry himself.
Although I might agree with most of your points, Vincenz, as I've never been much for 'guesstimates" or "secret sources" for this type of thing, what is it with you and a college degree? I hardly see how that's relevant at all. You seem to have a real bias against people who don't have a university degree. It seems rather odd.
By the way, I'm willing to bet that Bruce wrote his wiki entry himself.
LOL! OK, fair enough...in fact, I don't have a college degree. But I also don't claim to be doing complicated statistical analysis and algorithms to determine numbers that wouldn't be available to the normal joe
That's where my problem lies with the whole thing.
Let me say this again...there is no research. He uses publicly released numbers, if they're there, just like we all read here...and guesses. He is a guy who didn't even get a college degree, has never worked on an MMO or even in the field short of investing money in WWIIOL, and is simply an MMO fan (and prolific message board poster), who happens to have excel, a domain name, and time on his hands. His last actual "experience" in the MMO industry was running a TinyMUD...
p.s. Just so we're clear, his LinkedIn profile actually lists "Assistant Manager TRAINEE" at a freaking COMIC BOOK STORE.
Wow, I didn't even see this thread; I was looking over at the one about the top 8 MMOGs so didn't even see this one. Thanks to all of those who have been defending my work here; there are critics like Vincenz who always turn up when my charts are posted that have a personal axe to grind.
First, Vincez, you say there's no research because they're all publicly released numbers. Yes, Virginia, that's called en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_research and it's not unusual. But I'm actually collecting all those numbers in one place in a nice graphical form and providing some discussion to go along with it. Then you claim the numbers are made up. I assure you they aren't. If I just made up numbers, then every MMOG would be updated every month. They aren't. Yes, some numbers I get from inside sources and you don't know whether they can be trusted. But other numbers I get direct from the companies themselves; the data for games lik EVE Online, Tibia, RuneScape, etc. are provided by the company; they aren't "secret" but they aren't detailed in every press release, either. So there's a small amount of primary resarch that goes into these charts as well, but it's essentially secondary research and re-reporting what's already out there but which many people may not be aware of. For example, not everyone knows how to look through the NCSoft quarterly reports for the CoH subscriber numbers.
You're right, I don't have a college degree. Neither do Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Michael Dell, Larry Ellison, Richard Branson, Ted Turner, Debbie Fields, Ray Kroc, Walt Disney, Wayne Huizenga, Frank Lloyd Wright, Simon Cowell, and numerous other succesful people. As you mention, I do have experience with MMOs as both an angel investor and a previous administrator of early MUDs; you will find many of today's industry leaders like Raph Koster and Richard Bartle started on MUDs. I also have over the past few years consulting for several MMOG startups and MMOG investors and I'm a member of the IGDA and the Gerson Lehrman Group Councils.
And yes, I was briefly a trainee for a Mile High Comics retail store. I have a great story to go with that, but I won't go into that here. I also have an entry published in Grimtooth's Traps, Too, as well as a published author in The Escapist, a speaker at 3 Austin Game Devleopers Conferences, and the subject of numerous published articles and interviews in trade magazines. And your credentials are?
One more little tidbit...NPD just announced they were doing a subcriber number report for MMOs the other day. It's based on nothing more than internet polls and surveys.
And it's so much more credible than this guy, they're charging thirty five thousand dollars a year for their information...and this is free.
Yes, I posted about NPD's work ON MY OWN WEBSITE and got a response FROM NPD'S VICE-PRESIDENT about what they have planned:
And yes, what I provide is free. What difference does that make? If anything, it should make it MORE credible, as I have no incentive to put out frequent reports with made up numbers just to make more money.
I believe these numbers *should* be public; I'm just re-reporting them in a convenient, neutral clearinghouse for the benefit of consumers and the industry as a whole. If I started charging for the numbers, some sources may be less inclined to give me data.
Of course, I'd love to work for an MMO company.. and perhaps one day I will, providing that much-needed experience that you think is so essential to my credibility. But then you'd complain that my numbers were biased.
b) The game in question is free and/or doesn’t charge a regular monthly fee.
LOL, although really, that's kind of B.S. because he could guess for a free game as well as he guesses for a paid game.
Er, so why aren't I? Maybe because *I'm not making guesses* as you want to claim? You're really contradicting your own arguments, here.
Games without a subscription fee are very difficult to compare to games with a subscription fee because the markets are quite different. If you knew how many of those free accounts were actually *active* in a given month, that might make for some basis of comparison, but most companies are unwilling to give out that data. Getting numbers for subscriptions is difficult enough!
For games that have both a free and a premium monthly component, I track only the premium monthly subscribers (RuneScape, Dofus, Second Life, etc.).
Comments
www.mmogchart.com/analysis-and-conclusions/
Ah, so they are there. Too bad a lot of the entries are copy paste from 3 years ago and some the ratings are complete BS.
Lineage 1 and Lineage 2 are quite reliable because NCSoft discloses concurrent subscribers in financial reports and deserves a rating of an A.
However, FF11 has a rating of a B and thats based on a PR release from 3 years ago.
LotRO also has a accuracy rating of a B and that he admits is a complete guess.
Mention of this site should be a bannable offense here.
May 16th, 2007
www.playonline.com/ff11us/guide/development/census/07/index.html
EQ2 fan sites
I agree.
Although I think MMOGdata make fairly accurate estimates for many titles, I will like to know where the Tabula Rasa figure was obtained or what led to the assumption - if it was a guess. I personally have Tabula Rasa at 30,000 to 40,000 subscribers.
Well at least the publicly known numbers are correct.
And when he actually does a guess, he rates the confidence as "D"
Perhaps you flamers are a bunch of fanbois and on his chart your game underperformes?
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site :
http://mmodata.blogspot.be/
Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
QFT.
Well at least the publicly known numbers are correct.
And when he actually does a guess, he rates the confidence as "D"
Perhaps you flamers are a bunch of fanbois and on his chart your game underperformes?
No, we just recognize a turd when we see one, and MMOGchart is one. Again, the only time that site is correct is when it has info already published in other public places. If the numbers aren't posted officially, the dude has no clue and puts whatever number he thinks is right at that moment. I'd get better info from a broken Magic 8 Ball.
I agree.
Although I think MMOGdata make fairly accurate estimates for many titles, I will like to know where the Tabula Rasa figure was obtained or what led to the assumption - if it was a guess. I personally have Tabula Rasa at 30,000 to 40,000 subscribers.
Now you are talking about mmogdata, which is a site that has nothing to do with mmogchart.com.
mmogdata is an actual site with totally bogus information, mixing "active subscriber numbers" and "characters ever created" in the same charts.
If you are interested in subscription or PCU numbers for MMORPG's, check out my site :
http://mmodata.blogspot.be/
Favorite MMORPG's : DAoC pre ToA-NF, SWG Pre CU-NGE, EVE Online
I agree.
Although I think MMOGdata make fairly accurate estimates for many titles, I will like to know where the Tabula Rasa figure was obtained or what led to the assumption - if it was a guess. I personally have Tabula Rasa at 30,000 to 40,000 subscribers.
Now you are talking about mmogdata, which is a site that has nothing to do with mmogchart.com.
mmogdata is an actual site with totally bogus information, mixing "active subscriber numbers" and "characters ever created" in the same charts.
Oops, I meant to say MMOGchart; nonetheless, I will like to know how that number came about.
WTH is Dofus?
What exactly do you have against this guy anyway Vincenz? Everyone here is capable of reading his biography and coming to their own conclusion about the veracity of his report. We really don't need you to explain it to us. Honestly. You've said your piece...like 15 times now. We get it. You don't believe the numbers. Thanks. The first time you posted I appreciated your opinion. Now I'm just starting to just tune you out and skip thru your posts. You're not helping your case anymore.
www.mmogchart.com/analysis-and-conclusions/
Tabula Rasa (Accuracy Rating: C)
Launched on October 30, 2007, Richard Garriott’s Tabula Rasa was a highly-anticipated sci-fi themed MMORPG from NCSoft. So far, the game has been somewhat less successful than expected. NCSoft did not break out subscriber numbers for Tabula Rasa in their quarterly report, but based upon revenue figures provided I estimate that as of December 2007 Tabula Rasa had approximately 125,000 susbcribers. However, depending on whether or not TR is growing or shrinking, the actual number of current subscribers is probably somewhere between 75,000 and 150,000. NCSoft’s projection for TR in 2008 is between 80,000 and 100,000 subscribers.
EQ2 fan sites
Craptacular guesstimate pie charts FTL !
Games I've played/tried out:WAR, LOTRO, Tabula Rasa, AoC, EQ1, EQ2, WoW, Vangaurd, FFXI, D&DO, Lineage 2, Saga Of Ryzom, EvE Online, DAoC, Guild Wars,Star Wars Galaxies, Hell Gate London, Auto Assault, Grando Espada ( AKA SoTNW ), Archlord, CoV/H, Star Trek Online, APB, Champions Online, FFXIV, Rift Online, GW2.
Game(s) I Am Currently Playing:
GW2 (+LoL and BF3)
Some people are still emotionally invested in the fact that their crappy game of choice isn't heavily subscribed to.
In every country and in every age, the priest has been hostile to liberty. He is always in alliance with the despot, abetting his abuses in return for protection to his own.
-Thomas Jefferson
Shows that wow is more a phenomenon than a normal game.
Pity he did not get updates for all games and some seem more like educated guesses than facts, but still it shows trends and is not to be taken as 100% accurat.
EQ1 and EQ2 both have less than 200k subscribers each. SWG has less than 100k subscribers, one of the strongest brands of all time. How pathetic. All of SOE's games combined are less than 4% total MMOG sales. Why does Smedley still have a job?
And again, these are purely guesses...so why are you quoting them like they're facts?
I thought Eve would have had a bigger Subscription base...
You don't need a chart to tell you how many subscribers EVE has. They announced in January they hit 220,000.
Google works as well as this guy's website.
No doubt at all there, EVE's percentage growth rate on an annual basis matches or beats WoW's in fact.
Yes, but you are not doing a fair comparisson as mathematical growth does not favor wow then.
WoW is a phenomenon and you cannot really explain it with the old methods we used.
It grew from a game to a culture phenomenon now.
Although I might agree with most of your points, Vincenz, as I've never been much for 'guesstimates" or "secret sources" for this type of thing, what is it with you and a college degree? I hardly see how that's relevant at all. You seem to have a real bias against people who don't have a university degree. It seems rather odd.
By the way, I'm willing to bet that Bruce wrote his wiki entry himself.
LOL! OK, fair enough...in fact, I don't have a college degree. But I also don't claim to be doing complicated statistical analysis and algorithms to determine numbers that wouldn't be available to the normal joe
That's where my problem lies with the whole thing.
First, Vincez, you say there's no research because they're all publicly released numbers. Yes, Virginia, that's called en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_research and it's not unusual. But I'm actually collecting all those numbers in one place in a nice graphical form and providing some discussion to go along with it. Then you claim the numbers are made up. I assure you they aren't. If I just made up numbers, then every MMOG would be updated every month. They aren't. Yes, some numbers I get from inside sources and you don't know whether they can be trusted. But other numbers I get direct from the companies themselves; the data for games lik EVE Online, Tibia, RuneScape, etc. are provided by the company; they aren't "secret" but they aren't detailed in every press release, either. So there's a small amount of primary resarch that goes into these charts as well, but it's essentially secondary research and re-reporting what's already out there but which many people may not be aware of. For example, not everyone knows how to look through the NCSoft quarterly reports for the CoH subscriber numbers.
You're right, I don't have a college degree. Neither do Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Michael Dell, Larry Ellison, Richard Branson, Ted Turner, Debbie Fields, Ray Kroc, Walt Disney, Wayne Huizenga, Frank Lloyd Wright, Simon Cowell, and numerous other succesful people. As you mention, I do have experience with MMOs as both an angel investor and a previous administrator of early MUDs; you will find many of today's industry leaders like Raph Koster and Richard Bartle started on MUDs. I also have over the past few years consulting for several MMOG startups and MMOG investors and I'm a member of the IGDA and the Gerson Lehrman Group Councils.
And yes, I was briefly a trainee for a Mile High Comics retail store. I have a great story to go with that, but I won't go into that here. I also have an entry published in Grimtooth's Traps, Too, as well as a published author in The Escapist, a speaker at 3 Austin Game Devleopers Conferences, and the subject of numerous published articles and interviews in trade magazines. And your credentials are?
Bruce
Analyst, Consultant, Writer
http://www.mmogchart.com
http://www.mmogchart.com/2008/02/11/npd-to-start-tracking-mmog-subscriptions/
And yes, what I provide is free. What difference does that make? If anything, it should make it MORE credible, as I have no incentive to put out frequent reports with made up numbers just to make more money.
I believe these numbers *should* be public; I'm just re-reporting them in a convenient, neutral clearinghouse for the benefit of consumers and the industry as a whole. If I started charging for the numbers, some sources may be less inclined to give me data.
Of course, I'd love to work for an MMO company.. and perhaps one day I will, providing that much-needed experience that you think is so essential to my credibility. But then you'd complain that my numbers were biased.
Bruce
Analyst, Consultant, Writer
http://www.mmogchart.com
1. Why isn’t <MMOG_NAME> listed?
b) The game in question is free and/or doesn’t charge a regular monthly fee.
LOL, although really, that's kind of B.S. because he could guess for a free game as well as he guesses for a paid game.
Er, so why aren't I? Maybe because *I'm not making guesses* as you want to claim? You're really contradicting your own arguments, here.
Games without a subscription fee are very difficult to compare to games with a subscription fee because the markets are quite different. If you knew how many of those free accounts were actually *active* in a given month, that might make for some basis of comparison, but most companies are unwilling to give out that data. Getting numbers for subscriptions is difficult enough!
For games that have both a free and a premium monthly component, I track only the premium monthly subscribers (RuneScape, Dofus, Second Life, etc.).
Bruce
Analyst, Consultant, Writer
http://www.mmogchart.com