Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

could there be an exodus from warcraft this summer ?

1356

Comments

  • neonakaneonaka Member UncommonPosts: 779

    Originally posted by Iselin


     

    Originally posted by neonaka
     
     

    Originally posted by Iselin
     
    Let's see... since everybody and their dog plays or has played WOW, everytime a new MMO worth playing launches it gets the bulk of their subscribers from WOW players... and WOW just keeps on trucking. With 10,000,000 players they can absorb the losses. Love it or leave it (I left it) WOW is here to stay. You, personally may loose a friend or two, but Blizzard won't notice.

    I play LOTRO now and I'd say 90-95% of the players I've met there played WOW at some point in their life. In the 1 year since LOTRO launched, WOW subscriptions continued to increase.

    So, yeah... there will be an exodus... and an influx... and they'll probably hit 11,000,000 after all is said and done.

     

    It will have the opposite effect of what this guy is talking about .

    ...

    In the end each will sit on 3.5 million or so subs and as AOC and WAR perfect what they do best within thier first year of release, we will hopefully and finally see the downfall of warcraft, and all eagerly await blizzards next attempt at crack in the form of a game.


     

    Allright, you're on. I'll mark this and come back sometime after next Christmas to collect my case of beer. :)

    And for the record... I don't really care what happens to WOW either way. I'll be checking out both AOC and WAR (just like I did with Vanguard and LOTRO last year...LOTRO won for me) and will stick with the one I enjoy the most.

     

    LOL that's what I'm talking about BEER! ALRIGHT!

    CMON WAR DON'T LET ME DOWN NOW!!! BEER IS ON THE LINE!!! PULL THOSE SUBS!

  • XarruXarru Member Posts: 37

    Heh... Neonaka you are crazy (no offence meant).

     

    There is no way any new MMO will repeat launch succes of WoW. It just won't happen. Most hyped / polished ones will probably start with 500k and _slowly_ climb to 1M, 2M if the game is really great / polished / casual friendly.

     

    And about that WoW exodus, its not that easy. Majority of WoW players are casuals, they won't just drop their 1-2 year toons and run to new title that is just slightly beter that WoW. So unless something comes that offers true revolution in the gerne, wow won't drop in subs to much unless Blizzard will do something really stupid. (And as for now they are doing quite oposite, patch 2.4 seem like huge casual love patch from what i can tell.)

     

    Another thing is, even if im wrong AoC will never reach numbers you claim, not in this year and probably not in next one. Why? Just looking at the screens you can tell system requirements will be preety harsh, such games don't sell to well

  • AntariousAntarious Member UncommonPosts: 2,846

    Originally posted by Vortigon


    I think its fair to say that anyone playing wow WILL know someone that is going to drop WOW for WAR.  That in itself will amount to at least 500k - 1 million players over the first 6 months IMO.
     
    So yes there will be a noticeable move from WOW and no it will not be the end of WOW by a long shot but a definite wake up call and a constant steady stream of players moving to WAR over the first year.

    That could happen.

    Yet you are assuming it will appeal to WoW players.. that it will appeal to them over a long period of time.

    That it will release soon(tm) and will be a quility game.

    But what if... it sucks?

    Personally I would rather let the game release.. wait a year.  Then look at what happened.

    Putting what many would see as an unreasonable expectation on a game that is still in beta.. sounds like a good way to end up with a mangled product imho.

    Before WoW launched.. having 250,000-450,000 subs was success.

    I don't know of many North American releases since WoW that can claim 1 million active subs...

     

  • slask777slask777 Member Posts: 706
    Originally posted by Raztor

    Originally posted by slask777

    Originally posted by Raztor

    Originally posted by iatre


     
    Originally posted by fyerwall


    I can see a small exodus from WoW to Warhammer, but not a noticable amount. I say around maybe 50k players who outright ditch thier WoW account, and more who will play both for a while.

     

    I think you're off by a factor of at least 10. You seriously think only one half of one percent of WoW's player base is leaving? One out of 200?

    My estimate is at least 1 out of 20 will leave WoW for WAR within the first month of release, with many more playing both games.

    No, it's not going to kill WoW, but you're going to see at least 500,000 people make the switch.

     

    I still prefer my HKO (Hello Kitty Online) theory better tbh. And funnily enough, there's more chances of it happening than what you're suggesting.

    How can that be? WAR got over a half a million betatesters ffs, and alot more waiting to get in. Get your head out of blizzards fanbutt and smell reality for once.

    So did lord of the rings online and they are now around 200k ish subscriptions. Get your head out of Mythic's fanbutt and smell reality for once. See what I did there?



    Yes I can see what you did. You wrote exactly the same shit I wrote, just changed some words. Did you learn that somewhere? Oh, and provide urls for your 'facts' else its just random numbers pulled from nowhere and before you point any fingers my way, www.warhammeronline.com/english/home/index.php and check the number below the beta ticker on the middle, right side.

    ---
    Grammar nazi's. This one is for you.

  • Shifty360Shifty360 Member Posts: 629

    I would like to point out that Lord of The Rings Online is not Warhammer Online.

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719

     

    Originally posted by Shifty360


    I would like to point out that Lord of The Rings Online is not Warhammer Online.



    Ummm...yeah. I'm assuming by that you mean that even though LOTRO had negligible to no impact on WOW subscription, WAR, will because it's a better game...is that it? May turn out to be a better game but the impact won't be all that different.

     

    Maybe you should take a look at http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2.html

    Let's assume that everyone who has previously played a Mythic MMO, as I did with Dark Age of Camelot, comes over to WAR... DAoC had a peak subscription of 250,000 four years ago and is now down to 50,000. Let's say all of us from 2004 come and add a bunch more who are fans of the Warhammer world... 300,000 sound about right? or are you putting a lot of stock on the 600,000 applicants for beta? 600K willing to play for free that is...how many will cough-up the cash on a monthly basis?

    LOTRO had ~ 200,000 at launch... and the end result was a net INCREASE to WOW... I'm still having a hard time seeing WAR and AOC combined putting much a dent in the 10,000,000 WOW comunity... a comunity which, by the way, is more than half from places where neither WAR nor AOC will be available (China and vicinity)

    Here's the WOW chart http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart1.html 

    Notice which are the only 2 games that come anywhere near remotely close to WOW? Lineage (~3,000,000 at peak) and Lineage II (~2,000,000)... hmm.. I wonder where those games are most popular? North America? Europe? Oh, wait! Those are also mostly asian numbers.

    Think of WOW as Windows and all the other MMOs as different versions of Linux and you'll get the picture.

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • IselinIselin Member LegendaryPosts: 18,719

     



    Originally posted by neonaka

     

    { Mod Edit }



     

    I neither play nor like WOW... haven't for a couple of years... Man, it felt good to say that!

    Just stating the facts... I like my fantasy inside the games.

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”

    ― Umberto Eco

    “Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” 
    ― CD PROJEKT RED

  • Shifty360Shifty360 Member Posts: 629

    Originally posted by Iselin


     
    Originally posted by Shifty360


    I would like to point out that Lord of The Rings Online is not Warhammer Online.



    Ummm...yeah. I'm assuming by that you mean that even though LOTRO had negligible to no impact on WOW subscription, WAR, will because it's a better game...is that it? May turn out to be a better game but the impact won't be all that different.

     

    Maybe you should take a look at http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2.html

    Let's assume that everyone who has previously played a Mythic MMO, as I did with Dark Age of Camelot, comes over to WAR... DAoC had a peak subscription of 250,000 four years ago and is now down to 50,000. Let's say all of us from 2004 come and add a bunch more who are fans of the Warhammer world... 300,000 sound about right? or are you putting a lot of stock on the 600,000 applicants for beta? 600K willing to play for free that is...how many will cough-up the cash on a monthly basis?

    LOTRO had ~ 200,000 at launch... and the end result was a net INCREASE to WOW... I'm still having a hard time seeing WAR and AOC combined putting much a dent in the 10,000,000 WOW comunity... a comunity which, by the way, is more than half from places where neither WAR nor AOC will be available (China and vicinity)

    Here's the WOW chart http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart1.html 

    Notice which are the only 2 games that come anywhere near remotely close to WOW? Lineage (~3,000,000 at peak) and Lineage II (~2,000,000)... hmm.. I wonder where those games are most popular? North America? Europe? Oh, wait! Those are also mostly asian numbers.

    Think of WOW as Windows and all the other MMOs as different versions of Linux and you'll get the picture.

    Done venting?

  • GinazGinaz Member RarePosts: 2,574

    Anyone that tries to predict how well or bad this game will do or how its going to bring down WoW and HASN'T played the beta should shake their heads.   Unless you've actually tried WAR your opinion on how well it will do is just that, an opinion.  I will give WAR a try for sure, but if its too similar to WoW or just plain sucks I'll happily go back to WoW and have fun with expansion #2.

    Is a man not entitled to the herp of his derp?

    Remember, I live in a world where juggalos and yugioh players are real things.

  • MagicPrimeMagicPrime Member Posts: 1

    Sadly - I don't think anything will ever kill wow.

    Unless we get holodecks or something.

  • ItalWHOPItalWHOP Member UncommonPosts: 44
    Originally posted by MagicPrime


    Sadly - I don't think anything will ever kill wow.
    Unless we get holodecks or something.

    Good. I hope, assuming WAR is worthwhile, that it pulls the DAOC crowd and similar type of players. I don't want a mass exodus from WoW, because frankly I thought the community as a whole sucked.

  • neonakaneonaka Member UncommonPosts: 779

     

    Originally posted by ItalWHOP

    Originally posted by MagicPrime


    Sadly - I don't think anything will ever kill wow.
    Unless we get holodecks or something.

    Good. I hope, assuming WAR is worthwhile, that it pulls the DAOC crowd and similar type of players. I don't want a mass exodus from WoW, because frankly I thought the community as a whole sucked.

     

    QFT - you need an entire kingdom of praise for that statement!

     

    There 5 rows of praise should do it

  • MoretrinketsMoretrinkets Member Posts: 730

     

    Originally posted by yayitsandy


    i ve played warcraft on two european servers for just under three years now . so i ve got to know a fair number of regular players . the majority are willing to at least try warhammer and my horde guild is actually talking about going on hiatus for a few months because so many members are looking to try this game . i think lots of us for the first month at least * when we get 30 days gametime ,will proberbly have a sub going to both warhammer and warcraft at the same time . i think if reaction is possative to warhammer and word of mouth spreads in warcraft itself , blizzard could see a large amount of people leaving . personally i m keeping my fingers crossed . i m hoping for some much badly needed competition .

     

    I have been following the news about WAR and can't wait to try it. I think that in the beginning, the release of WAR is not going to attract many people. It's the word of mouth that runs like crazy and if the game is good why not to try it? Nothing last forever anyway. You will get bored no matter what is added in a 3rd or 4th expansion.  I am ready to move on to a new game. I like the RvR concept plus the classes look interesting. So far, so good for me.

     

  • killion81killion81 Member UncommonPosts: 995
    Originally posted by neonaka


     
    Originally posted by ItalWHOP

    Originally posted by MagicPrime


    Sadly - I don't think anything will ever kill wow.
    Unless we get holodecks or something.

    Good. I hope, assuming WAR is worthwhile, that it pulls the DAOC crowd and similar type of players. I don't want a mass exodus from WoW, because frankly I thought the community as a whole sucked.

     

    QFT - you need an entire kingdom of praise for that statement!

     

    There 5 rows of praise should do it



    That's only 4 and 16/21st rows. ;)

    Edit: I guess it IS 5 rows in the quote. :D

  • elvenangelelvenangel Member Posts: 2,205

    I love how you twist the truth to meet your own gains though I'm not sure what you think your gaining other than trouble for yourself Raztor.

    Please Refer to Doom Cat with all conspiracies & evil corporation complaints. He'll give you the simple explination of..WE"RE ALL DOOMED!

  • RaztorRaztor Member Posts: 670

    It's not twisting the truth. It's concern. I want this game to succeed desperately and don't want mythic to screw up :)

  • VistaakahVistaakah Member Posts: 176

    Mythic knows how to do PVP. Nobody else has got it right yet. Enough said!  People are already getting tired of WOW. It's on the decline as we speak. In a year or so they will merge servers to save dollars.

  • sirslayerrsirslayerr Member Posts: 128

    You know, I've always wondered how many of those 10-11 million subscriptions are farmer accounts... Personally, on the servers I played on, there were always 3-5 spammers per town (major ones), and a lot of other people spamming the channels trying to get you to buy something from them. Also, I could never forget the inflation they caused on the AH with the 400+ character farming of Old World content for mats that it crashed several zones.

  • GotredeGotrede Member UncommonPosts: 46

    Oh come on people. We're talking millions of people here. That would require one helluva ad campaign to reach even half of them. I really don't think Mythic is aiming for that either, though I could be wrong. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but if there is an exodus from WoW, it's not going to happen over the course of one summer. Maybe by the end of the year WAR will be the most successful MMO out there, and hey, here's hopin'. But I highly doubt something like a massive migration will happen.

    "Those who don’t build must burn. It’s as old as history and juvenile delinquence."
    -Ray Bradbury

  • vickypollardvickypollard Member Posts: 305

    This happens all the time people claim it's the next big mmorpg when if you look it it then it's clearly not. Theres not going to be anything that will have the number of players WOW has in the western world (4.5 milion) until like Bioware or Bethesda come out with a mmorpg.

  • elvenangelelvenangel Member Posts: 2,205

    Most of us that are following WAR aren't suggesting infact we're hoping there won't be a mass exodus from WoW, infact I don't think there will be.    Are the two of you even paying attention to the directoin of the comments.

    1. We don't care

    2. We kinda hope they don't

    3.  Again we don't care about WoW. 

     

    WoW and its crazed zealot followers can kiss my buttocks.

    Please Refer to Doom Cat with all conspiracies & evil corporation complaints. He'll give you the simple explination of..WE"RE ALL DOOMED!

  • TsukanoTsukano Member Posts: 159

    Originally posted by elvenangel


    Most of us that are following WAR aren't suggesting infact we're hoping there won't be a mass exodus from WoW, infact I don't think there will be.    Are the two of you even paying attention to the directoin of the comments.
    1. We don't care
    2. We kinda hope they don't
    3.  Again we don't care about WoW. 
     
    WoW and its crazed zealot followers can kiss my buttocks.
    my thoughts exactly. WoW can keep its childish players.. infact please keep them!!!!

     

     

    ........oh and Warhammer FTW

    Protip: If someone does NOT list at least one positive and one negative about the game they are critiquing, its best to ignore the post.
    image

  • xenogiasxenogias Member Posts: 1,926

    Its funny that most of the WoW killer threads are started by WoW players. Like angel said, we dont give a crap either way. So long as the game we choose to play is a good one.

    I will give you an idea though. I resubscribed to WoW a couple days ago. Now most of you know I HATE WoW but I found out nearly all of my old friends from AC where playing. I figured wth, a months subscription to say hi to them is worth it. So after a couple days, pointing them to WAR podcasts ect most of them are going to join me in WAR. Whats funny is the ones that have no intention of leaving WoW not only harassed me for talking about WAR but ended up leaving the guild because I was friends with the guild leader/officers.

    Long story short....Some will try something new, some still cant see past what they are currently playing. At least these last couple days in WoW reminded me of why I hope most of the WoW community stays where they are. Immature and childish is not something I want to see in WAR.  I like a community that can disagree, even flame eachother and laugh about it the next min. I so dont want to see "Your mom" jokes and "pwnzorz j00" names. If thats the type of community WAR ends up being it will ruin the game regardless of how good of a game it can be.

  • AntariousAntarious Member UncommonPosts: 2,846

    Originally posted by xenogias


    Long story short....Some will try something new, some still cant see past what they are currently playing. At least these last couple days in WoW reminded me of why I hope most of the WoW community stays where they are. Immature and childish is not something I want to see in WAR.  I like a community that can disagree, even flame eachother and laugh about it the next min. I so dont want to see "Your mom" jokes and "pwnzorz j00" names. If thats the type of community WAR ends up being it will ruin the game regardless of how good of a game it can be.
    Funny thing is when I've played WoW it has never had the community most describe.. I've played Alliance and Horde (only 5 servers total tho).  I've yet to ever see the immature and childish thing to any degree.  I don't count the forums becuase if you counted forums.. you'd support retroactive abortions. (yes supposed to be funny haha).

    DAoC has that exact community today.  Yesterday was an 8hour + slam session.  You ignore so many people then you just turn off region chat.

    Logged into Vanguard where I had never seen that and it really doesn't have that many people.  The first thing I see is a detailed discussion about who in game is an Emo and why..

    I don't think WAR will be any different.

    Its why I solo unless I get to know people.. I don't want to be forced to group with what I see in general chats.

    I also don't see where people who are happy in WoW are being closed minded when they don't want to leave or hear about other games.

    You know what?

    Every dang game I log into someone starts it up... "wow sucks" ** "this game is better than wow" etc etc

    I played WoW for the first 30 or 60 days of release and had 2 60's.  I got in a guild with a guy who had been in beta since the first public phase.. just ran us through everything because he knew it already.

    I've played maybe 2 or 3 months off and on since then.

    Yet I hear about WoW so much.. that i feel like I'm playing WoW no matter where I go.

    To the point I think I should just give up and sub to WoW so I don't have to hear about it...  I've yet to see people in WoW really discuss other games.. which is funny to me at least.

  • elvenangelelvenangel Member Posts: 2,205

     

    Originally posted by Antarious


     


    Funny thing is when I've played WoW it has never had the community most describe.. I've played Alliance and Horde (only 5 servers total tho).  I've yet to ever see the immature and childish thing to any degree.  I don't count the forums becuase if you counted forums.. you'd support retroactive abortions. (yes supposed to be funny haha).
     
    DAoC has that exact community today.  Yesterday was an 8hour + slam session.  You ignore so many people then you just turn off region chat.
    Logged into Vanguard where I had never seen that and it really doesn't have that many people.  The first thing I see is a detailed discussion about who in game is an Emo and why..
    I don't think WAR will be any different.
    Its why I solo unless I get to know people.. I don't want to be forced to group with what I see in general chats.
    I also don't see where people who are happy in WoW are being closed minded when they don't want to leave or hear about other games.
    You know what?
    Every dang game I log into someone starts it up... "wow sucks" ** "this game is better than wow" etc etc
    I played WoW for the first 30 or 60 days of release and had 2 60's.  I got in a guild with a guy who had been in beta since the first public phase.. just ran us through everything because he knew it already.
    I've played maybe 2 or 3 months off and on since then.
    Yet I hear about WoW so much.. that i feel like I'm playing WoW no matter where I go.
    To the point I think I should just give up and sub to WoW so I don't have to hear about it...  I've yet to see people in WoW really discuss other games.. which is funny to me at least.



    There's 10 million people playing wow atleast half of that 10 million are english speakers.  This means everyone's experience in WoW is giong to be different.   Just because you may not hear it in the guild or general chat channels of where your at doesn't mean others haven't.   Some people are the type of asses that xenogias described and some aren't.  

     

    You can't sit here and try to tell xeno different because you didn't experience or see what he did.   Its like people who try to squash my opinion of UO.   I had a negative experience every time I played UO pre trammel so my opinion of its past is highly negative; but I know that some people really loved it and I can't take that away from them.

    WoW has good and bad community members its just unfortante that with 10 million customers  there's a much larger negative community than alot of us are used too.  

    btw I hear about WoW in every game beta or open beta half say wow sucks the other half are everyone should quit and play wow ... wow is god blah blah blah.   Usually I turn off general chat in every game just to get away from that talk and all the dumbass crap that people talk about thats disruptive to my game time.   Not sure why your bother listening to general chat in any game unless you need too.

    Oh and the times I played wow I heard plenty of talk about other games usually in guild or group chats since I stay away from general chat where half of it is all suck my pwnage biotchs leetz ftw!

    Please Refer to Doom Cat with all conspiracies & evil corporation complaints. He'll give you the simple explination of..WE"RE ALL DOOMED!

Sign In or Register to comment.