Indeed. At first I thought this was yet another game for children, but then I discovered that you can have fairies as pets. I, along with the other members of the Winx Club really look at this as a step towards a mature community.
Don't worry, I'm not playing the game.
So you want them to disregard 500 years of Fae lore because you associate fairies with kids? Fairies in this game are pretty evil and spawn from Life rifts and will kill you.
I like the fae stuff in Rift, and how they implemented it. The art is terrific, too. Reminds me a bit of the movie, "Legend". Also, lots of fae based fantasy novels I've read.
The retention power of the game is the reasons to visit low level zones. Example: Meridian is located in low level zone, that is the main center for pvp merchants, vendors, highest level trainres.
Unlike most games, this causes high level players to mingle with the noobs and gives a feeling of being populated.
... hmm?
All the vanilla WoW cities use the starting zones as their front yards. Cataclysm saw a return to those starting cities as well.
Oh, and of course wow's faction main cities have always been nearly as populated as Dalaran because of Dalaran's lack of AH and some useful npc's.
Players still use the fastest transportation method, only stepping outside Orgrimmar or Stormwind for pvp battles. Mages, ships, summons and flightpaths--high levels rarely ride anyway. And now, with old world flight..
The same is true for RIFT. There's 0 reason to just ride out, Porticulums may not be as common as flightmasters ("yet" perhaps) but they're cheap and the quickest way to get where you're going. The world is new at the moment so you'll have some people that do ride out but most people want to be raiding or pvp'ing or gathering.
tl;dr: the terrain is not a reason to go out, only a nice thing to see while being out.
Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug. 12 Million People have been meter spammed in heroics.
The same is true for RIFT. There's 0 reason to just ride out, Porticulums may not be as common as flightmasters ("yet" perhaps) but they're cheap and the quickest way to get where you're going. The world is new at the moment so you'll have some people that do ride out but most people want to be raiding or pvp'ing or gathering.
tl;dr: the terrain is not a reason to go out, only a nice thing to see while being out.
Eh... hello? Rifts, maybe, the reason the game is called 'Rift'?
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
So you want them to disregard 500 years of Fae lore because you associate fairies with kids? Fairies in this game are pretty evil and spawn from Life rifts and will kill you.
I like the fae stuff in Rift, and how they implemented it. The art is terrific, too. Reminds me a bit of the movie, "Legend". Also, lots of fae based fantasy novels I've read.
For some reason Prince Hylas in the Silvermoon storyline and later on Greenscale Blight line REALLY reminds me of the guy from Hellboy 2. I can swear he sounds identical too.
I feel that Rift is primarily played by working, casual adults. It explains the low server status during the day and high peaks during the evening.
I almost feel that Rift is geared towards the WORKING, casual adult vs mommys credit card high schoolers.
Makes sense!
it does make sense. So far, the community has been great.
I guess I fit that description. Got home early today, played RIFT for 2 hours then went out to eat with the wife and children. With everything sorted once we got back (kids in bed and all) I am now on the usual 25 minute queue to get back into RIFT.
Read the posts in this thread, browsed a few other threads and thought about how I felt about the last few beta's and headstart. Finally logged into my RIFT account and changed my sub to a 6-month. You may not like it but the game is actually fun for some of us casuals and I am willing to pay for that - Even with the current queue's until the 1-month players and desillusioned hardcore people have left.
Seems to me Trion hit the right number of launch servers: A minor queue now is better than 5:1 merges in 3 months.
We dont need casuals in our games!!! Errm... Well we DO need casuals to fund and populate our games - But the games should be all about "hardcore" because: We dont need casuals in our games!!! (repeat ad infinitum)
I have played WoW since beta, and recently quit (again). I do not have any intentions of trying Rift, as I am tired of the fantasy setting. But I still wish them all the best, and congratulate the team on a hell of a launch.
A piece of advice to any players that read this: Do anything you have to....
-on the forums
-in genreral chat
-in your guild
.....to stamp out negativity. You have yourselves a new game and a fresh start. But a bunch of WoW players have already migrated there. Please do NOT let the community there become as toxic as WoW. Use that ignore button if they have one! Call out assholes for being such! Put it on your guild app on your website: "you're a dick, we kick" or something like that.
"I think its just important to remember that no one falls into a simple set of labels, and its even more important, I think, to learn from your mistakes and to fight for the positive choice." - Lindsey Buckingham
Nothing about rift suggests it is aimed at adults over teens, you guys are just looking for something that isn't there. WoW wasn't all teens at release either, new games generally have an older crowd because they can afford a full price game.
I have played WoW since beta, and recently quit (again). I do not have any intentions of trying Rift, as I am tired of the fantasy setting. But I still wish them all the best, and congratulate the team on a hell of a launch.
A piece of advice to any players that read this: Do anything you have to....
-on the forums
-in genreral chat
-in your guild
.....to stamp out negativity. You have yourselves a new game and a fresh start. But a bunch of WoW players have already migrated there. Please do NOT let the community there become as tovic as WoW. Use that ignore button if they have one! Call out assholes for being such! Put it on your guild app on your website: "you're a dick, we kick" or something like that.
Fight for the positive choice.
Best post ever.
All the negativity on this site usually gets me serously irate, which is reflected in the lack of composure evident in some of my posts.
This puts things better than I ever could.
Respect.
Aryas
Playing: Ableton Live 8 ~ ragequitcancelsubdeletegamesmashcomputerkillself ~
Originally posted by MMO.Maverick Originally posted by Deathofsage
The same is true for RIFT. There's 0 reason to just ride out, Porticulums may not be as common as flightmasters ("yet" perhaps) but they're cheap and the quickest way to get where you're going. The world is new at the moment so you'll have some people that do ride out but most people want to be raiding or pvp'ing or gathering. tl;dr: the terrain is not a reason to go out, only a nice thing to see while being out.
Eh... hello? Rifts, maybe, the reason the game is called 'Rift'?
Pick a game. Any mmorpg currently running. Add some sort of fast travel like Porticulums or Flight Masters and people will use them. Doesn't matter how much the terrain is a reason to do on. If people wanted to walk, they'd walk to the store and back with their groceries. They'd walk or ride bikes to work. For the most part, they don't. It's the same in a virtual world...walking around is boring or worse, an annoyance that doesn't further any of your objectives. Forcing people to take the long way when it serves no purpose just irritates people.
But yeah, rifts exist out in the world. There are 10 man and 20 man outdoor raids to participate in. Much harder to do on a PvP server btw. Lot of fun though. :-)
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
The same is true for RIFT. There's 0 reason to just ride out, Porticulums may not be as common as flightmasters ("yet" perhaps) but they're cheap and the quickest way to get where you're going. The world is new at the moment so you'll have some people that do ride out but most people want to be raiding or pvp'ing or gathering.
tl;dr: the terrain is not a reason to go out, only a nice thing to see while being out.
Eh... hello? Rifts, maybe, the reason the game is called 'Rift'?
Cute reply but I can honestly say I wouldn't, as a level 50, be taking down a rift that did not give a reasonable reward. Whether it be gold/trading currency or items. So yeah, I'm not riding out through lowbie stuff to get where I'm going.
If level 45~ rifts gave decent rewards (trading currency and were quickly burnable--sure I'd take them down when I felt like it but that means nothing for the lowbie zones).
Powerleveling in RIFT, at least on beta, is nonexistent atm--you can't efficiently help a friend level in any way that a friend and I tried but if it were added, that would be a reasonable reward for high level people.
Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug. 12 Million People have been meter spammed in heroics.
Taking a peek at server status right now I see 3 servers at high and all of the other US servers at Medium. This tells me one thing... medium isn't very many people, they have it set pretty darn low so you aren't going to see very many low servers no matter what. There is no way the population is that perfectly spread out.
Taking a peek at server status right now I see 3 servers at high and all of the other US servers at Medium. This tells me one thing... medium isn't very many people, they have it set pretty darn low so you aren't going to see very many low servers no matter what. There is no way the population is that perfectly spread out.
I'm seeing 2 FULL servers, 2 LOW servers and the rest divided between MEDIUM and HIGH servers on the EU side, and this maybe an hour or after peak time period, so I'm not buying that theory of that medium isn't that many.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Cute reply but I can honestly say I wouldn't, as a level 50, be taking down a rift that did not give a reasonable reward. Whether it be gold/trading currency or items. So yeah, I'm not riding out through lowbie stuff to get where I'm going.
If level 45~ rifts gave decent rewards (trading currency and were quickly burnable--sure I'd take them down when I felt like it but that means nothing for the lowbie zones).
Powerleveling in RIFT, at least on beta, is nonexistent atm--you can't efficiently help a friend level in any way that a friend and I tried but if it were added, that would be a reasonable reward for high level people.
One guy did make me crack up laughing. He is a 50 warrior and for some reason went to a lvl 17 Life Rift. The final boss apeared and said lvl 17, but started hitting him for over 2k hits lol
@Mav - I bet they raised the limits on the servers. Either that or people just magically started re-rolling or maybe they have spread out and people have gotten into a pattern.
- I bet they raised the limits on the servers. Either that or people just magically started re-rolling or maybe they have spread out and people have gotten into a pattern.
Many did re-roll to new servers. Many guilds jumped on board at launch and chose new servers also.
The only major issue with a couple exception is some of the PvP servers. A lot of hardcore PvP guilds came to Rift after the decision to let the opposite faction Wardstones' be attackable. Then rumors of RvR being put in only fueled the fire. Those servers are not going down any time soon.
There is no way the population is that perfectly spread out.
LOL! Or maybe Trion Worlds is a bad ass company like ArenaNet and can read actual metrics and plan accordingly.
OVER A MILLION PEOPLE ARE PLAYING RIFT. True Story. Deal with it.
um, where are you getting that number?
The only number I've seen is that a millions "accounts on their website" have been made since they started.
MMOs on average have 20,000 players max per server (not on at one time) almost 100 servers with most Full/Medium pop.
Some say MMOs can have up to 30,000-35,000 players per server.
Hypothetically - Let's say 5,000 players max per server (an absurd low number, but let's roll with it.)
That's 500,000 people. Since all of the servers aren't maxed out...about 75% full. Puts the number at 350,000.
Like I said, even guessing WAY too low for max server pop - Rift has 350,000 players.
Realistically-
If it's 10,000 per server - you have 750,000 players.
If it's 20,000 per server - you have 1.5 million players.
So I take an average between the two and come up with 1,250,000 players - taking into account that about 75% of Rift's servers are full at peak times (which vary between EU and NA.)
Originally posted by Sovrath um, where are you getting that number? The only number I've seen is that a millions "accounts on their website" have been made since they started.
He is making it up because people aren't willing to admit that Rift has smaller server populations than a game like WoW does. There is a little bit less instancing, the graphics are higher end, there is a lot less content at this point and the engine is a bit limited, there is no reason to think 20k per server is a realistic number.
He is making it up because people aren't willing to admit that Rift has smaller server populations than a game like WoW does. There is a little bit less instancing, the graphics are higher end and the engine is a bit limited, there is no reason to think 20k per server is a realistic number.
I have facts from MMO history and people who have worked in the industry that have discussed this at length.
What facts do you have? So what is it? How many max players are there on a server total?
I would really like to know Ender4. Is it 1,000 players per server? 5,000?
Can't be 10,000 because that would push Rift up to 750,000 subs.
I have facts from MMO history and people who have worked in the industry that have discussed this at length.
You don't have facts, you have conjecture. Nobody knows how many subs there are but Trion and the only info they released was obvious marketing talk, it is a guessing game. I could believe 750k, WAR had about the same server structure at release, was probably a little bit larger world but had more technical issues so the numbers are probably pretty similar.
The important part isn't even how many they have now though, the important part is how many they have 3 months from now when the honeymoon is over.
Regardless of any of that you don't know what the values of Low, Medium and High mean but just from watching the server status a few times every day it seems like Medium is most likely a huge range and Low is well really Low. Yesterday at 10 AM almost every US server was at least medium and only one or two were at high as well, the variation just isn't high enough for it to be an even distribution in a game that has dedicated EU servers.
Taking a peek at server status right now I see 3 servers at high and all of the other US servers at Medium. This tells me one thing... medium isn't very many people, they have it set pretty darn low so you aren't going to see very many low servers no matter what. There is no way the population is that perfectly spread out.
I'm seeing 2 FULL servers, 2 LOW servers and the rest divided between MEDIUM and HIGH servers on the EU side, and this maybe an hour or after peak time period, so I'm not buying that theory of that medium isn't that many.
You would be surprised ppl staying up late on a thursday night? Don't know about uni's there, but a lot let out on Spring Break here.
The only number I've seen is that a millions "accounts on their website" have been made since they started.
He is making it up because people aren't willing to admit that Rift has smaller server populations than a game like WoW does. There is a little bit less instancing, the graphics are higher end, there is a lot less content at this point and the engine is a bit limited, there is no reason to think 20k per server is a realistic number.
He's guessing, but based upon metrics and data from other MMORPG's: MMO servers are known to serve10-35k player accounts per server since the days of EQ, 10k being on the low end and 35k on the high end.
So, considering that it's the peak period that's typical of the launch month and seeing that there's 99 servers of which all are medium to full on peak times, I'd say that 10k per server with 100 servers isn't that farfetched a guess. I'd even say it's higher looking at other MMORPG's, but 10k per server is on the safe side.
As for the engine, it's an upgraded version of the same engine that DAoC used, and DAoC was working fine with high population numbers on a server, even better than EQ.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I have facts from MMO history and people who have worked in the industry that have discussed this at length.
You don't have facts, you have conjecture. Nobody knows how many subs there are but Trion and the only info they released was obvious marketing talk, it is a guessing game. I could believe 750k, WAR had about the same server structure at release, was probably a little bit larger world but had more technical issues so the numbers are probably pretty similar.
The important part isn't even how many they have now though, the important part is how many they have 3 months from now when the honeymoon is over.
Regardless of any of that you don't know what the values of Low, Medium and High mean but just from watching the server status a few times every day it seems like Medium is most likely a huge range and Low is well really Low.
You are wrong. See how easy that was? There moving on.
Oh and LMAO WAR's world is bigger.
So just to nail down your assumption; 10,000 per server is your guess.
Considering I'm in a guild of 300+ people and know of two other guilds that are just as big on my server...
That would mean almost 1/10 of my server's total population is made up of 3 guilds. I call BS considering the numerous amount of other guilds I've seen in game.
Oh and the important part thing? Nah, that's a moving target. See the important part two months ago was
'let's see how Beta turns out.'
Then it turned into 'let's see how open beta shapes up.'
Then it went to 'let's see how Headstart goes, then we'll talk.'
Then it went to 'Let's see if any more show up for launch.'
Yep, moving target.
All the haters are the same and I'm not going to play that game with you.
But you're right about not predicting the future, we only have the here and now to judge from.
So, considering that it's the peak period that's typical of the launch month and seeing that there's 99 servers of which all are medium to full on peak times, I'd say that 10k per server with 100 servers isn't that farfetched a guess. I'd even say it's higher looking at other MMORPG's, but 10k per server is on the safe side.
10k is reasonable for a new game. Remember that most likely the servers don't hit their player caps this early because everyone is online so much that the heavy population servers active player caps stop new players from joining.
This release seems about the same in players to me as WAR so I think the 750k value they got seems reasonable. It could be higher but probably not much more than the 250k you'd need to reach 1 million. The release is smoother so I'd expect higher retention than WAR had.
So, considering that it's the peak period that's typical of the launch month and seeing that there's 99 servers of which all are medium to full on peak times, I'd say that 10k per server with 100 servers isn't that farfetched a guess. I'd even say it's higher looking at other MMORPG's, but 10k per server is on the safe side.
10k is reasonable for a new game. Remember that most likely the servers don't hit their player caps this early because everyone is online so much that the heavy population servers active player caps stop new players from joining.
This release seems about the same in players to me as WAR so I think the 750k value they got seems reasonable. It could be higher but probably not much more than the 250k you'd need to reach 1 million. The release is smoother so I'd expect higher retention than WAR had.
Aye but WAR was much more polished than AoC was at launch and still dropped like a rock. Still, Mythic had to use a lot of resources fixing stuff rather than adding things after launch. Not so with Rift it seems. Otherwise I would expect Rift to more or less follow WAR's pattern in subs.
To me WAR was an amazingly fun game, untill I ran out of long term incentives after a few month of endgame and having explored almost everything, after which the repetitve content, restrictions, server merges and the artificial world killed it for me. I think that is the pattern most of the quitters went through.
So I think a lot comes down on how Trion will be on top of adding content / long term incentives / keeping people happy in the first three months.
Comments
I like the fae stuff in Rift, and how they implemented it. The art is terrific, too. Reminds me a bit of the movie, "Legend". Also, lots of fae based fantasy novels I've read.
... hmm?
All the vanilla WoW cities use the starting zones as their front yards. Cataclysm saw a return to those starting cities as well.
Oh, and of course wow's faction main cities have always been nearly as populated as Dalaran because of Dalaran's lack of AH and some useful npc's.
Players still use the fastest transportation method, only stepping outside Orgrimmar or Stormwind for pvp battles. Mages, ships, summons and flightpaths--high levels rarely ride anyway. And now, with old world flight..
The same is true for RIFT. There's 0 reason to just ride out, Porticulums may not be as common as flightmasters ("yet" perhaps) but they're cheap and the quickest way to get where you're going. The world is new at the moment so you'll have some people that do ride out but most people want to be raiding or pvp'ing or gathering.
tl;dr: the terrain is not a reason to go out, only a nice thing to see while being out.
Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug.
12 Million People have been meter spammed in heroics.
Eh... hello? Rifts, maybe, the reason the game is called 'Rift'?
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
For some reason Prince Hylas in the Silvermoon storyline and later on Greenscale Blight line REALLY reminds me of the guy from Hellboy 2. I can swear he sounds identical too.
I guess I fit that description. Got home early today, played RIFT for 2 hours then went out to eat with the wife and children. With everything sorted once we got back (kids in bed and all) I am now on the usual 25 minute queue to get back into RIFT.
Read the posts in this thread, browsed a few other threads and thought about how I felt about the last few beta's and headstart. Finally logged into my RIFT account and changed my sub to a 6-month. You may not like it but the game is actually fun for some of us casuals and I am willing to pay for that - Even with the current queue's until the 1-month players and desillusioned hardcore people have left.
Seems to me Trion hit the right number of launch servers: A minor queue now is better than 5:1 merges in 3 months.
We dont need casuals in our games!!! Errm... Well we DO need casuals to fund and populate our games - But the games should be all about "hardcore" because: We dont need casuals in our games!!!
(repeat ad infinitum)
I have played WoW since beta, and recently quit (again). I do not have any intentions of trying Rift, as I am tired of the fantasy setting. But I still wish them all the best, and congratulate the team on a hell of a launch.
A piece of advice to any players that read this: Do anything you have to....
-on the forums
-in genreral chat
-in your guild
.....to stamp out negativity. You have yourselves a new game and a fresh start. But a bunch of WoW players have already migrated there. Please do NOT let the community there become as toxic as WoW. Use that ignore button if they have one! Call out assholes for being such! Put it on your guild app on your website: "you're a dick, we kick" or something like that.
"I think its just important to remember that no one falls into a simple set of labels, and its even more important, I think, to learn from your mistakes and to fight for the positive choice." - Lindsey Buckingham
Nothing about rift suggests it is aimed at adults over teens, you guys are just looking for something that isn't there. WoW wasn't all teens at release either, new games generally have an older crowd because they can afford a full price game.
Best post ever.
All the negativity on this site usually gets me serously irate, which is reflected in the lack of composure evident in some of my posts.
This puts things better than I ever could.
Respect.
Aryas
Playing: Ableton Live 8
~ ragequitcancelsubdeletegamesmashcomputerkillself ~
Pick a game. Any mmorpg currently running. Add some sort of fast travel like Porticulums or Flight Masters and people will use them. Doesn't matter how much the terrain is a reason to do on. If people wanted to walk, they'd walk to the store and back with their groceries. They'd walk or ride bikes to work. For the most part, they don't. It's the same in a virtual world...walking around is boring or worse, an annoyance that doesn't further any of your objectives. Forcing people to take the long way when it serves no purpose just irritates people.
But yeah, rifts exist out in the world. There are 10 man and 20 man outdoor raids to participate in. Much harder to do on a PvP server btw. Lot of fun though. :-)
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Cute reply but I can honestly say I wouldn't, as a level 50, be taking down a rift that did not give a reasonable reward. Whether it be gold/trading currency or items. So yeah, I'm not riding out through lowbie stuff to get where I'm going.
If level 45~ rifts gave decent rewards (trading currency and were quickly burnable--sure I'd take them down when I felt like it but that means nothing for the lowbie zones).
Powerleveling in RIFT, at least on beta, is nonexistent atm--you can't efficiently help a friend level in any way that a friend and I tried but if it were added, that would be a reasonable reward for high level people.
Spec'ing properly is a gateway drug.
12 Million People have been meter spammed in heroics.
Taking a peek at server status right now I see 3 servers at high and all of the other US servers at Medium. This tells me one thing... medium isn't very many people, they have it set pretty darn low so you aren't going to see very many low servers no matter what. There is no way the population is that perfectly spread out.
I'm seeing 2 FULL servers, 2 LOW servers and the rest divided between MEDIUM and HIGH servers on the EU side, and this maybe an hour or after peak time period, so I'm not buying that theory of that medium isn't that many.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
One guy did make me crack up laughing. He is a 50 warrior and for some reason went to a lvl 17 Life Rift. The final boss apeared and said lvl 17, but started hitting him for over 2k hits lol
@Mav - I bet they raised the limits on the servers. Either that or people just magically started re-rolling or maybe they have spread out and people have gotten into a pattern.
LOL! Or maybe Trion Worlds is a bad ass company like ArenaNet and can read actual metrics and plan accordingly.
OVER A MILLION PEOPLE ARE PLAYING RIFT. True Story. Deal with it.
Many did re-roll to new servers. Many guilds jumped on board at launch and chose new servers also.
The only major issue with a couple exception is some of the PvP servers. A lot of hardcore PvP guilds came to Rift after the decision to let the opposite faction Wardstones' be attackable. Then rumors of RvR being put in only fueled the fire. Those servers are not going down any time soon.
um, where are you getting that number?
The only number I've seen is that a millions "accounts on their website" have been made since they started.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
MMOs on average have 20,000 players max per server (not on at one time) almost 100 servers with most Full/Medium pop.
Some say MMOs can have up to 30,000-35,000 players per server.
Hypothetically - Let's say 5,000 players max per server (an absurd low number, but let's roll with it.)
That's 500,000 people. Since all of the servers aren't maxed out...about 75% full. Puts the number at 350,000.
Like I said, even guessing WAY too low for max server pop - Rift has 350,000 players.
Realistically-
If it's 10,000 per server - you have 750,000 players.
If it's 20,000 per server - you have 1.5 million players.
So I take an average between the two and come up with 1,250,000 players - taking into account that about 75% of Rift's servers are full at peak times (which vary between EU and NA.)
He is making it up because people aren't willing to admit that Rift has smaller server populations than a game like WoW does. There is a little bit less instancing, the graphics are higher end, there is a lot less content at this point and the engine is a bit limited, there is no reason to think 20k per server is a realistic number.
I have facts from MMO history and people who have worked in the industry that have discussed this at length.
What facts do you have? So what is it? How many max players are there on a server total?
I would really like to know Ender4. Is it 1,000 players per server? 5,000?
Can't be 10,000 because that would push Rift up to 750,000 subs.
So enlighten me.
You don't have facts, you have conjecture. Nobody knows how many subs there are but Trion and the only info they released was obvious marketing talk, it is a guessing game. I could believe 750k, WAR had about the same server structure at release, was probably a little bit larger world but had more technical issues so the numbers are probably pretty similar.
The important part isn't even how many they have now though, the important part is how many they have 3 months from now when the honeymoon is over.
Regardless of any of that you don't know what the values of Low, Medium and High mean but just from watching the server status a few times every day it seems like Medium is most likely a huge range and Low is well really Low. Yesterday at 10 AM almost every US server was at least medium and only one or two were at high as well, the variation just isn't high enough for it to be an even distribution in a game that has dedicated EU servers.
You would be surprised ppl staying up late on a thursday night? Don't know about uni's there, but a lot let out on Spring Break here.
He's guessing, but based upon metrics and data from other MMORPG's: MMO servers are known to serve10-35k player accounts per server since the days of EQ, 10k being on the low end and 35k on the high end.
So, considering that it's the peak period that's typical of the launch month and seeing that there's 99 servers of which all are medium to full on peak times, I'd say that 10k per server with 100 servers isn't that farfetched a guess. I'd even say it's higher looking at other MMORPG's, but 10k per server is on the safe side.
As for the engine, it's an upgraded version of the same engine that DAoC used, and DAoC was working fine with high population numbers on a server, even better than EQ.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
You are wrong. See how easy that was? There moving on.
Oh and LMAO WAR's world is bigger.
So just to nail down your assumption; 10,000 per server is your guess.
Considering I'm in a guild of 300+ people and know of two other guilds that are just as big on my server...
That would mean almost 1/10 of my server's total population is made up of 3 guilds. I call BS considering the numerous amount of other guilds I've seen in game.
Oh and the important part thing? Nah, that's a moving target. See the important part two months ago was
'let's see how Beta turns out.'
Then it turned into 'let's see how open beta shapes up.'
Then it went to 'let's see how Headstart goes, then we'll talk.'
Then it went to 'Let's see if any more show up for launch.'
Yep, moving target.
All the haters are the same and I'm not going to play that game with you.
But you're right about not predicting the future, we only have the here and now to judge from.
10k is reasonable for a new game. Remember that most likely the servers don't hit their player caps this early because everyone is online so much that the heavy population servers active player caps stop new players from joining.
This release seems about the same in players to me as WAR so I think the 750k value they got seems reasonable. It could be higher but probably not much more than the 250k you'd need to reach 1 million. The release is smoother so I'd expect higher retention than WAR had.
Aye but WAR was much more polished than AoC was at launch and still dropped like a rock. Still, Mythic had to use a lot of resources fixing stuff rather than adding things after launch. Not so with Rift it seems. Otherwise I would expect Rift to more or less follow WAR's pattern in subs.
To me WAR was an amazingly fun game, untill I ran out of long term incentives after a few month of endgame and having explored almost everything, after which the repetitve content, restrictions, server merges and the artificial world killed it for me. I think that is the pattern most of the quitters went through.
So I think a lot comes down on how Trion will be on top of adding content / long term incentives / keeping people happy in the first three months.
My brand new bloggity blog.