Only thing I'm guessing about is that I don't know anything about Trion until Trion releases it. What you are speculating is that they are just as good as those that came before them, before they have proven that fact. So it's seems to be that you're gving them the benefit of the doubt, while I'm asking them to prove it beyond reasonable doubt. So I guess we agree to see thing differently.
I don't know if it's the case. If you really wanted things proven beyond reasonable doubt, you'd also not go with your gut feeling that their silence meant that sales were 500k and less. So it seems to me that you're giving your gut and lower sales numbers the benefit of the doubt, and you will only sway away from it if it can be proven without a doubt that you're wrong.
Me, I'm not giving any 'benefit of the doubt', I'm speculating. If I was giving Trion the benefit of the doubt, I'd say that Rift might prove to be the exception to the rule, and that Rift won't see the now commonly seen decline in player numbers after the free month and after the 3 month period after launch.
Which I ain't saying.
I'm in the middle, what I'm doing is applying common sense and an eye for what we've seen with other MMORPG's the last 5 years. Seeing how the other MMORPG's fared after launch, seeing the number of servers they used and the sales they had, and work further from there. Law of statistics, nothing more.
Anyway, we'll see, I'm going to leave it at this. It's one of those threads that will be interesting to get back to after more news has been revealed.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Originally posted by lizardbones On the one hand you won't accept something because you haven't seen numbers from Trion. Yet you'll accept something from an unverified source, who has not received numbers from Trion.
Even at the low, low population of 2,000 people per server, the VGChartz numbers are off by about 80,000 people. Even at the 1,500 people per server quoted by a dev many, many moons ago (which Trion said was wrong) the numbers are still off.
Nobody, whether they like Rift or not knows how many copies of the game were sold. The only that seems true is that the VGChartz numbers are off.
Never said I accepted anything the OP linked. My issue stems from the baseless claims that 500k was a reasonable sales number when Trion itself doesn't seem to think so. Well at least not enough to acknowledge it.
The 500k estimates are just as valid as any other estimate posted in this thread. All the estimates have just as much verified information associated with them. The only thing we can be sure of is that they are all wrong. It doesn't matter how wrong (10% or 40% makes no difference), they're all wrong.
* edit * Good grief that's a lot of quoted text. Let's snip some of it.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
I don't know if those numbers provided by the OP are accurate or not but I do know this: Trion has had plenty of time to reflect on the numbers that they do have control over, namely digital downloads. But they obviously are nothing worth publishing. And this coming from a company that had no issue with boasting about the 1 million accounts created nor their bold jab at the 800 lb gorilla with their silly tagline.
So now all of a sudden their mouths are sealed and their youthful energies have been squelched by the weight of reality. When do you think they will release their numbers? I say if they haven't now they never will. Oh and stop buying into the server queue hype. All it is, is a ploy of devs to artificially create the sense of packed servers in order to build hype. Every mmo after Blizzard has been doing it (And Blizzard even did it for Cata's launch). But keep believing the server limit/queue hoax.
Or maybe they realize that historically, it's been counter-rpoductive for any company to boast box sales as they are always muchhigher than what is retained past the first 30-60 days.
But in didn't stop Trion from realizing the counter-productive practice of boasting about something as trivial as accounts created on their website? I'm not following your excuse for their logic...
Becuse that is a number that
1) the target audience (PR wires, mainstream media) of those reports evidently falls for, since they consistently report it
and
2) can only go up.
MMO gamers don't fall for that, and they want to know relevant numbers. Gamers and developers alike both know that box sales are always much higher than the number of players playing a game 30-60 days later. With a standalone PC game, it doesn't make a damn bit of difference if everyone wipes their ass with it and throws it out a week after they bought it - or does the equivalent and trades it to gamestop for 9 dollars credit. The sale is done, money has been made and no one, not media and not player, cares about it a month after release.
However, with MMOs, that same pattern makes for some horrible looking numbers when 500k copies of something are sold and 30-60 days later only half the people are playing it. MMO gamers go zoo when they see what's an othewise normal behavioural pattern. Hell, for many it's their own behavioural pattern and they are too dense to realize it or acknowledge it. It's a lot easier and a lot more fun to be the first person to post 'fail' on their favorite message board than actually look at something logically.
Anyway, we've pretty much established that you don't work in marketing.
It seemed to have worked for WoW and EQ2, when they were publishing sales numbers week after week 6 years ago. Also it seems to come up in every marketing slogan for mmos from A to Z since 2004. It also seemed to be a good idea for Trion to build pre-release hype with the whole 1 million accounts activated fiasco. I don't have to work in marketing to recognize it when I see it. Whether it's good or bad marketing is not my concern, that's a worry for the poor schmuck dreaming to get into my wallet.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
Only thing I'm guessing about is that I don't know anything about Trion until Trion releases it. What you are speculating is that they are just as good as those that came before them, before they have proven that fact. So it's seems to be that you're gving them the benefit of the doubt, while I'm asking them to prove it beyond reasonable doubt. So I guess we agree to see thing differently.
I don't know if it's the case. If you really wanted things proven beyond reasonable doubt, you'd also not go with your gut feeling that their silence meant that sales were 500k and less. So it seems to me that you're giving your gut and lower sales numbers the benefit of the doubt, and you will only sway away from it if it can be proven without a doubt that you're wrong.
Me, I'm not giving any 'benefit of the doubt', I'm speculating. If I was giving Trion the benefit of the doubt, I'd say that Rift might prove to be the exception to the rule, and that Rift won't see the now commonly seen decline in player numbers after the free month and after the 3 month period after launch.
Which I ain't saying.
I'm in the middle, what I'm doing is applying common sense and an eye for what we've seen with other MMORPG's the last 5 years. Seeing how the other MMORPG's fared after launch, seeing the number of servers they used and the sales they had, and work further from there. Law of statistics, nothing more.
Anyway, we'll see, I'm going to leave it at this. It's one of those threads that will be interesting to get back to after more news has been revealed.
/offtopic
MY "gut check" had nothing to do with 500k and less sales numbers. Where did you speculate that? My gut check was telling me that maybe Trion has not release any numbers because they now understand it ain't easy making the right moves in this genre. Reread it if you must.
Also you are benefiting Trion with your speculations because by your own admission you seems to know more about server structure than any mere mmo player, therefor you're throwing around unproven number on the highend of things based on nothing more than a full, high and medium message on the screen. So to the people that are swayed by these dreamt up numbers for these words (Full, High, Medium), you're basically giving Trion the credit of others that came before them, whether they are actually limited to those amounts or not. A.K.A. a benefit.
While I'm saying that I'd rather for them to speak for themselves than assume anything. But go on, keep spreading that speculated mumbo-jumbo, it reminds me of another poster that loved pulling numbers from his magic hat.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
It seemed to have worked for WoW and EQ2, when they were publishing sales numbers week after week 6 years ago.
It's not 2005 anymore. The releases throughout 2006-2009 have proven time and time again that it's a bad strategy to publicize early numbers without having a newer and higher number to go with it. In the case of initial sales, they have been historically higher than second month subs - why boast an irrelevant number when the real number will just make it look bad a month or two later?
Again, it's not 2005 anymore.
The A-Z slogans and fiasco stuff really didn't seem to make much sense so I'm not sure what to reply to that. I've already told you that marketing was targetting a completely different group and, since that group reported it, the marketing worked fine. Not sure what slogans or fiascos you are referring to.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
It seemed to have worked for WoW and EQ2, when they were publishing sales numbers week after week 6 years ago.
It's not 2005 anymore. The releases throughout 2006-2009 have proven time and time again that it's a bad strategy to publicize early numbers without having a newer and higher number to go with it. In the case of initial sales, they have been historically higher than second month subs - why boast an irrelevant number when the real number will just make it look bad a month or two later?
Again, it's not 2005 anymore.
If you're going to quote me, quote me bro. Don't try to bolster your stance by fracturing my words. I also stated that it's been happening since 2004 with every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
I doubt anyone knows how many copies have been sold except Trion. In any event lets ask a simple question. Is there anyone on any of the 99 or so servers feel the population is low ? If so let us know.
I have been level 50 for a while now and travel through all the zones quite a bit. They are all busy on my server.
MY "gut check" had nothing to do with 500k and less sales numbers. Where did you speculate that? My gut check was telling me that maybe Trion has not release any numbers because they now understand it ain't easy making the right moves in this genre. Reread it if you must.
See 1)
Also you are benefiting Trion with your speculations because by your own admission you seems to know more about server structure than any mere mmo player, therefor you're throwing around unproven number on the highend of things based on nothing more than a full, high and medium message on the screen. So to the people that are swayed by these dreamt up numbers for these words (Full, High, Medium), you're basically giving Trion the credit of others that came before them, whether they are actually limited to those amounts or not. A.K.A. a benefit.
Those aren't 'high' numbers, they're 'actual' numbers. But if you want to see everything that isn't negative towards Rift numbers as 'benefit of the doubt' then yes, you're right. I see it as applying the law of statistics, as in 'if Rift behaves as most other MMO's did' or 'if Rift servers are the same as other MMORPG servers in player numbers and population'.
That's a presumption, but in my book supposing that Rift will be as the average AAA MMORPG of the last 5 years is hardly 'giving the benefit of the doubt'
While I'm saying that I'd rather for them to speak for themselves than assume anything. But go on, keep spreading that speculated mumbo-jumbo, it reminds me of another poster that loved pulling numbers from his magic hat.
1) This is what you said:
Originally posted by Ramonski7
Besides. If the number is even 500k for boxes shipped/digital downloads, that in itself is a number worth mentioning. ESPECIALLY if it's only in a week or two. BUt his hasn't happen has it? So my gut tells me that reality has kicked in and Trion is taking a step back and finally realizing that it ain't as easy as Blizzard made it seem.
This is going nowhere, it's running around in circles. And while I didn't mind defending you against Troneas' unjust accusations regarding SWTOR, I do mind wasting my time in a neverending debate.
We agree on that nothing is certain regarding the sales/sub figures right now, we disagree about the rest. Hf with your ongoing debating about the same stuff, but count me out.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I don't know a single person in my guild or on my friend's list who bought a box. I know some still like them, but for me, in a small town in the middle of no where, but with a nice 20 meg internet connection, I *only* buy boxes when I cannot find it digitally.
Box sales, imho, are becoming a meaningless figure.
Even more reason for Trion to just come out with a sales number then. Since they are the people that are holding all the cards. But like I said. They are seeing the numbers first hand and they are thinking 2 things:
Damn it's not what we expected so let's wait a while
Damn only 500k? Let's what until we get to a million
RIFT is a unique bird though since word of mouth is so strong, as it was in the beta. If there is still a steady stream of new accounts, they aren't going to short-change their first announcement. I see nothing wrong with no official numbers as of yet.
It seemed to have worked for WoW and EQ2, when they were publishing sales numbers week after week 6 years ago.
It's not 2005 anymore. The releases throughout 2006-2009 have proven time and time again that it's a bad strategy to publicize early numbers without having a newer and higher number to go with it. In the case of initial sales, they have been historically higher than second month subs - why boast an irrelevant number when the real number will just make it look bad a month or two later?
Again, it's not 2005 anymore.
If you're going to quote me, quote me bro. Don't try to bolster your stance by fracturing my words. I also stated that it's been happening since 2004 with every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P.
Fine. We'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Here's your chance to shine, Ramon.
Every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P has ... done what?
My request is two-fold:
1) Please clarify what you are saying that every MMO has done since 2004
2) Link to press releases or news articles created in the past two years that are examples of what you're claiming.
Asking you to clarify and support your stance is not an unreasonable request, right?
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
RIFT is a unique bird though since word of mouth is so strong, as it was in the beta. If there is still a steady stream of new accounts, they aren't going to short-change their first announcement. I see nothing wrong with no official numbers as of yet.
I would go as far as to say that they are purposefully withholding actual sales numbers until they can assess what their retention is.
These guys aren't stupid. Quite frankly, they are one of the few game companies, whether people like their game or not, that feels like it's run by adults who know what they are doing. Everything they do is very well thougth out.
And because of this I'm sure they are well aware that announcing they sold 1.5 million (or whatever) boxes only to then have to say 'well, we are merging servers' is just not going to look good.
If they have good retention they will most liley make that announcement. if they have bad retention they will instead focus on subscriber numbers that don't have to keep out of the shadow of great box and preorder numbers.
That's just my guess.
Like Skyrim? Need more content? Try my Skyrim mod "Godfred's Tomb."
Like the game or not they are doing the right thing by not revealing any numbers. Haters are still talking about it and so are the fan boys and the people that like it. So speculate all you want on your low and high numbers just keep the Rift talk coming. They're the ones getting the publicity for free from the haters.
The difference with the RIFT launch and many over the past few years (Warhammer, AoC, Aion, etc.) is RIFT is polished and playabe now. Trion is responsive to its community. Everyone I know did the digital download.
Rift doesn't feel like a continued beta test as so many failed MMO releases have felt like over the past few years. I'd hate to think how many games beta/start were so fail that I was lucky to last two months playing. Even Catacylsm, fun for a few weeks (mostly flying in Azeroth), but I never thought I'd say it, boring. Peope are more cautious now because of the wasted time/money on the rush to release MMO's we've experienced. I expect more will start playing once the word is out that it is a solid/playable and fun game.
As for the real numbers, if Trion said they were less than expected the doom & gloom crowd would crucify them or the sheep would run for the exit,. If they sold 500k good for them. If it's less there's only room for more to come on board.
As for the game itself, shards are full w/o the Head-Start 2-6 hour queue's, people seem to be enjoying the game. Talk is positive in game, and no 'I'm bored' in the general chat. I have to say maybe it's just a game that appeals to the more mature-minded gamer, as people are nicer than in many MMo's general chat and helpful out in the world - a big yeah. Most common talk, is the cancellation of WoW as no one likes all the changes Blizzard made this past year nor the attitude towards their clients (us!).
RIFT is a unique bird though since word of mouth is so strong, as it was in the beta. If there is still a steady stream of new accounts, they aren't going to short-change their first announcement. I see nothing wrong with no official numbers as of yet.
I would go as far as to say that they are purposefully withholding actual sales numbers until they can assess what their retention is.
These guys aren't stupid. Quite frankly, they are one of the few game companies, whether people like their game or not, that feels like it's run by adults who know what they are doing. Everything they do is very well thougth out.
And because of this I'm sure they are well aware that announcing they sold 1.5 million (or whatever) boxes only to then have to say 'well, we are merging servers' is just not going to look good.
If they have good retention they will most liley make that announcement. if they have bad retention they will instead focus on subscriber numbers that don't have to keep out of the shadow of great box and preorder numbers.
That's just my guess.
I'd put money on that.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
It seemed to have worked for WoW and EQ2, when they were publishing sales numbers week after week 6 years ago.
It's not 2005 anymore. The releases throughout 2006-2009 have proven time and time again that it's a bad strategy to publicize early numbers without having a newer and higher number to go with it. In the case of initial sales, they have been historically higher than second month subs - why boast an irrelevant number when the real number will just make it look bad a month or two later?
Again, it's not 2005 anymore.
If you're going to quote me, quote me bro. Don't try to bolster your stance by fracturing my words. I also stated that it's been happening since 2004 with every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P.
Fine. We'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Here's your chance to shine, Ramon.
Every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P has ... done what?
My request is two-fold:
1) Please clarify what you are saying that every MMO has done since 2004
2) Link to press releases or news articles created in the past two years that are examples of what you're claiming.
Asking you to clarify and support your stance is not an unreasonable request, right?
No it's not.
Every mmo has played the numbers game (fiddle with sales figures/number of users) since 2004
Here is a partial list of mmo companies in the last 2 years playing the game:
I'm the guy nobody is going to believe. If you googled my name "Kenneth Joseph Spaziani" and "Galexia" you'll find I'm a musician signed under atlantic, My buddy (not close friend but worked with him on some soundscapes for an indie movie) ended up grabbing a job at trion around a year ago, and did the engineering on the score you hear through-out the game along with 2 other engineers and a full cast of a studio team.
---------I play RIFT, and I had completely forgotten about him working there since we lost touch, until he mail'd me a free Collectors edition, along with a special autograpged soundtrack, a few lithogram? (the clear sheets with the art), a size small Defiant shirt and a size small Guardian shirt (he remembered my size, so I feel bad for forgetting about him, hopefully he doesn't notice this post LOL) and a poster signed by the whole dev team.----------
Thus I ended up giving him a call about 3 nights ago (may have been 4, I've been addicted to Dragon Age 2 and time is an oddity) saying that I already digitally own the collectors through STEAM and love the game played through beta, and I asked him about the one million accounts, and he stated "Yes this is created account during open beta and closed combined along with initial pre-launch numbers" so that clairfies the obvious there, I asked why a press release has not been released for RIFT's subscriber numbers? he stated they had hit over "200K box sales, and 650 rounded down Digital Sales, with the MOST coming from Steam, second Direct 2 Drive, third Trion Worlds website." He then stated that they are going to release a press release once it hits 1 million active payment subscribers - and have a special "something something" for the player base in game when they hit the 1 million mark.
He said its been a consistantly steady flow upwards, thus the analyst giving them the go ahead to order the servers, all of which have players on it. and from myself, I mentioned to him to tell someone that is further up the chain that I know of multiple people from other MMO's like WoW for example, my buddies rather large raiding guild, dissolved due to Rift and the guild leaders re-formed the guild in RIFT, along with about 50-60% of the guild- and at this point he was one of the last to get it due to him not having much money and it being a tough decision to leave WoW but his raid status was gone and he could play with the same people, basically about 150-160ish of the 190 active players in his guild Transfered to the RIFT version of the guild, and the WoW guild is now empty aside from a few of these players who stayed in WoW who transfered factions or servers. --------------- My engineering friend up at trion said "Word around the office is this has been a growing trend, and that it seems 100% of these people are instant gratification, they want the digital version so they can play that moment, and that we have not even accounted for these sales yet" - --
He then joked and said --
"we could have 2 million due to flow of people leaving other games, buying digitally and us not getting the trend report (a sales report that is weekly or bi weekly) varies from each digital retailer and they do not know until they receive it"
He laughed when he said the 2 million as he knows it isn't true but the point he made wa with digital vendors, the trend reports come at alternating times for all the vendors, only through the Trion store can they get the sale marked as a sale instantly, they can see accounts created due to these digital purchases though.
I'm gonna get flamed because I'm one of those "Fake Insiders" but look through my post history since I've been here, read all of them - I've never made up and bullshit, its good to be in the music industry as you meet a lot of people, I love the stuff he sent me, and I'm glad I caught up with an old friend...
the last note was that he personally felt games like "Dragon Age 2 being released directly after will initially hurt sales a bit, some people will buy both and play both, some people will want the MMO experience and not the single player RPG experience, but it is a HIGHLY anticipated game that is set to sell over 3-4 million opening as the past Bioware titles have sold - he stated once people are completed with Dragon Age 2 even playing once or twice, they feel that they will get even more subscribers from people looking for their RPG fix - he said this was not a major issue, it was just a question I asked since I stated that I only log on for a bit of pvp everyday right now since I'm playing Dragon Age 2 and waiting to beat it." --- "he also said with "The Witcher 2" on the way, it will also slow sales - he said the best they can do is to keep the advertisements on websites especially the World of Warcraft database / quest websites, MMO info sites and Wikia's and know that world wide a lot of people would rather play a solid single player RPG for the 60 dollars than 50-60 for an MMO then a monthly fee - but he stated once the asian market is opened up they are already estimated a few million right off that bat due to the US and EU sucess"
Take my words for a grain of salt, thats perfectly fine - I am letting you know what my buddy I've worked with who works for the company told me... and it seemed like he was both excited and hesitant - more hesitant when he brought up the DA2 and The Witcher 2, he even mentioned Crysis 2 being close and bulletstorm being the same day saying "Alot of MMO'ers are FPSers, I know I am (myself too) and it depends on the wallet of the player and what they expect to be the better game, thus we need to campaign and advertise and let reviews help move it along to help decide that a persons 50 US dollars is better spent here, than a persons 60 US dollar son a 10 hour FPS."
Thats my inside scoop, believe it or not, take it in or leave it out - thats fine with me, I'm just glad I could contribute SOMETHING that is honest to the conversation
-waits to get eaten alive, and most likely will not respond, you have my conversation.. I cannot cite a source as it was not an e-mail, just take the info and keep it in the back of your mind for when they hit 1 million and everyone gets an item flashing in their mailbox in game ;P ).
It seemed to have worked for WoW and EQ2, when they were publishing sales numbers week after week 6 years ago.
It's not 2005 anymore. The releases throughout 2006-2009 have proven time and time again that it's a bad strategy to publicize early numbers without having a newer and higher number to go with it. In the case of initial sales, they have been historically higher than second month subs - why boast an irrelevant number when the real number will just make it look bad a month or two later?
Again, it's not 2005 anymore.
If you're going to quote me, quote me bro. Don't try to bolster your stance by fracturing my words. I also stated that it's been happening since 2004 with every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P.
Fine. We'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Here's your chance to shine, Ramon.
Every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P has ... done what?
My request is two-fold:
1) Please clarify what you are saying that every MMO has done since 2004
2) Link to press releases or news articles created in the past two years that are examples of what you're claiming.
Asking you to clarify and support your stance is not an unreasonable request, right?
No it's not.
Every mmo has played the numbers game (fiddle with sales figures/number of users) since 2004
Here is a partial list of mmo companies in the last 2 years playing the game:
So maybe Trion learned after their own stunt not to play these games and maybe not. I definitely know they didn't learn from the past of others...
1) The only way to make that stance any more vague and nebulous is to say that every mmo has had numbers in ads since 2004.
2) You list three free to play games, which are games that don't have monthly subscribers, and an NCSoft financial thing. Is your stance really "Look, these guys had numbers in their ads!"? Are you saying you don't know the difference between pre-orders and sales at release?
And what does this have to do with actual first month sales - digital or retail - which is what was being discussed?
Ok, you've just made it clear that your goal really isn't to discuss anything but to go to whatever lengths necessary to simply 'be right.'
Fine. You're right, Ramon. Not sure what youre right about, but you are most certainly 100% correct. Cheers!
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
It seemed to have worked for WoW and EQ2, when they were publishing sales numbers week after week 6 years ago.
It's not 2005 anymore. The releases throughout 2006-2009 have proven time and time again that it's a bad strategy to publicize early numbers without having a newer and higher number to go with it. In the case of initial sales, they have been historically higher than second month subs - why boast an irrelevant number when the real number will just make it look bad a month or two later?
Again, it's not 2005 anymore.
If you're going to quote me, quote me bro. Don't try to bolster your stance by fracturing my words. I also stated that it's been happening since 2004 with every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P.
Fine. We'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Here's your chance to shine, Ramon.
Every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P has ... done what?
My request is two-fold:
1) Please clarify what you are saying that every MMO has done since 2004
2) Link to press releases or news articles created in the past two years that are examples of what you're claiming.
Asking you to clarify and support your stance is not an unreasonable request, right?
No it's not.
Every mmo has played the numbers game (fiddle with sales figures/number of users) since 2004
Here is a partial list of mmo companies in the last 2 years playing the game:
So maybe Trion learned after their own stunt not to play these games and maybe not. I definitely know they didn't learn from the past of others...
1) The only way to make that stance any more vague and nebulous is to say that every mmo has had numbers in ads since 2004.
2) You list three free to play games, which are games that don't have monthly subscribers, and an NCSoft financial thing. Is your stance really "Look, these guys had numbers in their ads!"? Are you saying you don't know the difference between pre-orders and sales at release?
And what does this have to do with actual first month sales - digital or retail - which is what was being discussed?
Ok, you've just made it clear that your goal really isn't to discuss anything but to go to whatever lengths necessary to simply 'be right.'
Fine. You're right, Ramon. Not sure what youre right about, but you are most certainly 100% correct. Cheers!
My only point (for you) was that mmo companies do use numbers to bolster interest in their respective games through marketing, financial reports and articles. I never said it was a bad thing or they shouldn't do it. I simply wanted to point out that IF Trion had such a impressive number of pre-sales/DDs, what makes you think they would not follow the path that so many companies have done before? Also I even listed Rifts attempt at this, yet you still greet me with sharp tongue? Oh behave!
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
Btw, this leads me to another thing. mmogawd and I made little bet about Rift Sales in the first week. Contents of this little agreement of hours can be seen here:
I'm the guy nobody is going to believe. If you googled my name "Kenneth Joseph Spaziani" and "Galexia" you'll find I'm a musician signed under atlantic, My buddy (not close friend but worked with him on some soundscapes for an indie movie) ended up grabbing a job at trion around a year ago, and did the engineering on the score you hear through-out the game along with 2 other engineers and a full cast of a studio team.
---------I play RIFT, and I had completely forgotten about him working there since we lost touch, until he mail'd me a free Collectors edition, along with a special autograpged soundtrack, a few lithogram? (the clear sheets with the art), a size small Defiant shirt and a size small Guardian shirt (he remembered my size, so I feel bad for forgetting about him, hopefully he doesn't notice this post LOL) and a poster signed by the whole dev team.----------
...cut.....
i think hitting 1 million active payment subscribers going to be hard.
lol ask ur friend what happen if they dont hit 1mil? how long will they wait to give out the numbers?
A Rift server with a full queue has close to 2k players on it, people have actually counted this so it is pretty much fact.
Since the game is new most likely the total players on a server are pretty low right now because of the nature of the queue system, it won't surprise me if the number is 10k or less on a busy server right now with room to grow in the future as people play less and the population spreads out.
This number at best is the US only box sales or something, the numbers make no sense otherwise.
They almost certainly have at least 1500 active players per server prime time which means a low estimate is 150k active players each day during prime time hours. They almost certainly have at least 4 times that many players total so the lowest end projection is 600k players. They may have hit 1 million or they may not have but these numbers posted really make no sense. I say this as someone who thinks Rift is not a very good game which you can tell by just browsing my posts so it if it is biased it is on the low end.
I never bought Rift. I found it a bit boring. And I am far from a fanboy.
That said.. there is NO possible way they only sold 120k boxes. There are simply too many servers that are occupied heavily. Forget about queues (we don´t know how many the game lets in) and forget about their catagories (low, medium, high).. the fact is there are 100 servers and players are seeing tons of other players. NOBODY is complaining about ghostown servers which would surely be happening if they had 120k players and 100 servers. This physical evidence supports the view that their server load and catagories are fairly normal for MMORPGs. Which means 2 to 3k concurrent and about 10k players per server (once it settles down). Because at launch, players play MUCH more than they will later on.. that 10k players per server is probably closer to 5 or 7k.
I don´t think there is any possible way it is less than 500k, and probably closer to 650k. 120k sounds about right for physical box sales.
I'm the guy nobody is going to believe. If you googled my name "Kenneth Joseph Spaziani" and "Galexia" you'll find I'm a musician signed under atlantic, My buddy (not close friend but worked with him on some soundscapes for an indie movie) ended up grabbing a job at trion around a year ago, and did the engineering on the score you hear through-out the game along with 2 other engineers and a full cast of a studio team.
---------I play RIFT, and I had completely forgotten about him working there since we lost touch, until he mail'd me a free Collectors edition, along with a special autograpged soundtrack, a few lithogram? (the clear sheets with the art), a size small Defiant shirt and a size small Guardian shirt (he remembered my size, so I feel bad for forgetting about him, hopefully he doesn't notice this post LOL) and a poster signed by the whole dev team.----------
Thus I ended up giving him a call about 3 nights ago (may have been 4, I've been addicted to Dragon Age 2 and time is an oddity) saying that I already digitally own the collectors through STEAM and love the game played through beta, and I asked him about the one million accounts, and he stated "Yes this is created account during open beta and closed combined along with initial pre-launch numbers" so that clairfies the obvious there, I asked why a press release has not been released for RIFT's subscriber numbers? he stated they had hit over "200K box sales, and 650 rounded down Digital Sales, with the MOST coming from Steam, second Direct 2 Drive, third Trion Worlds website." He then stated that they are going to release a press release once it hits 1 million active payment subscribers - and have a special "something something" for the player base in game when they hit the 1 million mark.
He said its been a consistantly steady flow upwards, thus the analyst giving them the go ahead to order the servers, all of which have players on it. and from myself, I mentioned to him to tell someone that is further up the chain that I know of multiple people from other MMO's like WoW for example, my buddies rather large raiding guild, dissolved due to Rift and the guild leaders re-formed the guild in RIFT, along with about 50-60% of the guild- and at this point he was one of the last to get it due to him not having much money and it being a tough decision to leave WoW but his raid status was gone and he could play with the same people, basically about 150-160ish of the 190 active players in his guild Transfered to the RIFT version of the guild, and the WoW guild is now empty aside from a few of these players who stayed in WoW who transfered factions or servers. --------------- My engineering friend up at trion said "Word around the office is this has been a growing trend, and that it seems 100% of these people are instant gratification, they want the digital version so they can play that moment, and that we have not even accounted for these sales yet" - --
He then joked and said --
"we could have 2 million due to flow of people leaving other games, buying digitally and us not getting the trend report (a sales report that is weekly or bi weekly) varies from each digital retailer and they do not know until they receive it"
He laughed when he said the 2 million as he knows it isn't true but the point he made wa with digital vendors, the trend reports come at alternating times for all the vendors, only through the Trion store can they get the sale marked as a sale instantly, they can see accounts created due to these digital purchases though.
I'm gonna get flamed because I'm one of those "Fake Insiders" but look through my post history since I've been here, read all of them - I've never made up and bullshit, its good to be in the music industry as you meet a lot of people, I love the stuff he sent me, and I'm glad I caught up with an old friend...
the last note was that he personally felt games like "Dragon Age 2 being released directly after will initially hurt sales a bit, some people will buy both and play both, some people will want the MMO experience and not the single player RPG experience, but it is a HIGHLY anticipated game that is set to sell over 3-4 million opening as the past Bioware titles have sold - he stated once people are completed with Dragon Age 2 even playing once or twice, they feel that they will get even more subscribers from people looking for their RPG fix - he said this was not a major issue, it was just a question I asked since I stated that I only log on for a bit of pvp everyday right now since I'm playing Dragon Age 2 and waiting to beat it." --- "he also said with "The Witcher 2" on the way, it will also slow sales - he said the best they can do is to keep the advertisements on websites especially the World of Warcraft database / quest websites, MMO info sites and Wikia's and know that world wide a lot of people would rather play a solid single player RPG for the 60 dollars than 50-60 for an MMO then a monthly fee - but he stated once the asian market is opened up they are already estimated a few million right off that bat due to the US and EU sucess"
Take my words for a grain of salt, thats perfectly fine - I am letting you know what my buddy I've worked with who works for the company told me... and it seemed like he was both excited and hesitant - more hesitant when he brought up the DA2 and The Witcher 2, he even mentioned Crysis 2 being close and bulletstorm being the same day saying "Alot of MMO'ers are FPSers, I know I am (myself too) and it depends on the wallet of the player and what they expect to be the better game, thus we need to campaign and advertise and let reviews help move it along to help decide that a persons 50 US dollars is better spent here, than a persons 60 US dollar son a 10 hour FPS."
Thats my inside scoop, believe it or not, take it in or leave it out - thats fine with me, I'm just glad I could contribute SOMETHING that is honest to the conversation
-waits to get eaten alive, and most likely will not respond, you have my conversation.. I cannot cite a source as it was not an e-mail, just take the info and keep it in the back of your mind for when they hit 1 million and everyone gets an item flashing in their mailbox in game ;P ).
I actually find this post pretty interesting.. as long as it is true and not a fictional posting. I wonder what is going to happen once sales hit 1 million, if they even do. I think that one million active accounts, active players, is a huge success of a new MMO in this community. Any game, that hits those numbers, is giving blizzard a headache as well. I'm wondering what blizzard will do if these numbers actually will exist. Will they do osmething different to WoW? I wonder if people playing WoW have been hearing about Rift in game, and if they do, what differences has blizzard done in game to make poeple continuing to play the game... Have they made drops happen more often? Are they going to make a patch to make the game more inticing and if so what would the content be?
Comments
I don't know if it's the case. If you really wanted things proven beyond reasonable doubt, you'd also not go with your gut feeling that their silence meant that sales were 500k and less. So it seems to me that you're giving your gut and lower sales numbers the benefit of the doubt, and you will only sway away from it if it can be proven without a doubt that you're wrong.
Me, I'm not giving any 'benefit of the doubt', I'm speculating. If I was giving Trion the benefit of the doubt, I'd say that Rift might prove to be the exception to the rule, and that Rift won't see the now commonly seen decline in player numbers after the free month and after the 3 month period after launch.
Which I ain't saying.
I'm in the middle, what I'm doing is applying common sense and an eye for what we've seen with other MMORPG's the last 5 years. Seeing how the other MMORPG's fared after launch, seeing the number of servers they used and the sales they had, and work further from there. Law of statistics, nothing more.
Anyway, we'll see, I'm going to leave it at this. It's one of those threads that will be interesting to get back to after more news has been revealed.
/offtopic
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
The 500k estimates are just as valid as any other estimate posted in this thread. All the estimates have just as much verified information associated with them. The only thing we can be sure of is that they are all wrong. It doesn't matter how wrong (10% or 40% makes no difference), they're all wrong.
* edit *
Good grief that's a lot of quoted text. Let's snip some of it.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
It seemed to have worked for WoW and EQ2, when they were publishing sales numbers week after week 6 years ago. Also it seems to come up in every marketing slogan for mmos from A to Z since 2004. It also seemed to be a good idea for Trion to build pre-release hype with the whole 1 million accounts activated fiasco. I don't have to work in marketing to recognize it when I see it. Whether it's good or bad marketing is not my concern, that's a worry for the poor schmuck dreaming to get into my wallet.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
MY "gut check" had nothing to do with 500k and less sales numbers. Where did you speculate that? My gut check was telling me that maybe Trion has not release any numbers because they now understand it ain't easy making the right moves in this genre. Reread it if you must.
Also you are benefiting Trion with your speculations because by your own admission you seems to know more about server structure than any mere mmo player, therefor you're throwing around unproven number on the highend of things based on nothing more than a full, high and medium message on the screen. So to the people that are swayed by these dreamt up numbers for these words (Full, High, Medium), you're basically giving Trion the credit of others that came before them, whether they are actually limited to those amounts or not. A.K.A. a benefit.
While I'm saying that I'd rather for them to speak for themselves than assume anything. But go on, keep spreading that speculated mumbo-jumbo, it reminds me of another poster that loved pulling numbers from his magic hat.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
It's not 2005 anymore. The releases throughout 2006-2009 have proven time and time again that it's a bad strategy to publicize early numbers without having a newer and higher number to go with it. In the case of initial sales, they have been historically higher than second month subs - why boast an irrelevant number when the real number will just make it look bad a month or two later?
Again, it's not 2005 anymore.
The A-Z slogans and fiasco stuff really didn't seem to make much sense so I'm not sure what to reply to that. I've already told you that marketing was targetting a completely different group and, since that group reported it, the marketing worked fine. Not sure what slogans or fiascos you are referring to.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
If you're going to quote me, quote me bro. Don't try to bolster your stance by fracturing my words. I also stated that it's been happening since 2004 with every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P.
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
I doubt anyone knows how many copies have been sold except Trion. In any event lets ask a simple question. Is there anyone on any of the 99 or so servers feel the population is low ? If so let us know.
I have been level 50 for a while now and travel through all the zones quite a bit. They are all busy on my server.
1) This is what you said:
This is going nowhere, it's running around in circles. And while I didn't mind defending you against Troneas' unjust accusations regarding SWTOR, I do mind wasting my time in a neverending debate.
We agree on that nothing is certain regarding the sales/sub figures right now, we disagree about the rest. Hf with your ongoing debating about the same stuff, but count me out.
/offtopic
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Does it really matter how many copies sold? This game is a blast to play, I haven't had this much fun since DAoC.
RIFT is a unique bird though since word of mouth is so strong, as it was in the beta. If there is still a steady stream of new accounts, they aren't going to short-change their first announcement. I see nothing wrong with no official numbers as of yet.
Fine. We'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Here's your chance to shine, Ramon.
Every mmo whether it's F2P or P2P or B2P has ... done what?
My request is two-fold:
1) Please clarify what you are saying that every MMO has done since 2004
2) Link to press releases or news articles created in the past two years that are examples of what you're claiming.
Asking you to clarify and support your stance is not an unreasonable request, right?
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
I would go as far as to say that they are purposefully withholding actual sales numbers until they can assess what their retention is.
These guys aren't stupid. Quite frankly, they are one of the few game companies, whether people like their game or not, that feels like it's run by adults who know what they are doing. Everything they do is very well thougth out.
And because of this I'm sure they are well aware that announcing they sold 1.5 million (or whatever) boxes only to then have to say 'well, we are merging servers' is just not going to look good.
If they have good retention they will most liley make that announcement. if they have bad retention they will instead focus on subscriber numbers that don't have to keep out of the shadow of great box and preorder numbers.
That's just my guess.
Godfred's Tomb Trailer: https://youtu.be/-nsXGddj_4w
Original Skyrim: https://www.nexusmods.com/skyrim/mods/109547
Serph toze kindly has started a walk-through. https://youtu.be/UIelCK-lldo
Like the game or not they are doing the right thing by not revealing any numbers. Haters are still talking about it and so are the fan boys and the people that like it. So speculate all you want on your low and high numbers just keep the Rift talk coming. They're the ones getting the publicity for free from the haters.
The difference with the RIFT launch and many over the past few years (Warhammer, AoC, Aion, etc.) is RIFT is polished and playabe now. Trion is responsive to its community. Everyone I know did the digital download.
Rift doesn't feel like a continued beta test as so many failed MMO releases have felt like over the past few years. I'd hate to think how many games beta/start were so fail that I was lucky to last two months playing. Even Catacylsm, fun for a few weeks (mostly flying in Azeroth), but I never thought I'd say it, boring. Peope are more cautious now because of the wasted time/money on the rush to release MMO's we've experienced. I expect more will start playing once the word is out that it is a solid/playable and fun game.
As for the real numbers, if Trion said they were less than expected the doom & gloom crowd would crucify them or the sheep would run for the exit,. If they sold 500k good for them. If it's less there's only room for more to come on board.
As for the game itself, shards are full w/o the Head-Start 2-6 hour queue's, people seem to be enjoying the game. Talk is positive in game, and no 'I'm bored' in the general chat. I have to say maybe it's just a game that appeals to the more mature-minded gamer, as people are nicer than in many MMo's general chat and helpful out in the world - a big yeah. Most common talk, is the cancellation of WoW as no one likes all the changes Blizzard made this past year nor the attitude towards their clients (us!).
Proud member of Hammerfist Clan Gaming Community.
Currently playing: RIFT, EQ2, WoW, LoTRO
Retired: Warhammer, AoC, EQ
Waiting: SWToR & GW2
I'd put money on that.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
No it's not.
Every mmo has played the numbers game (fiddle with sales figures/number of users) since 2004
Here is a partial list of mmo companies in the last 2 years playing the game:
LoTRO playing with numbers
DDO playing with numbers
Aion playing with numbers
FreeRealms playing with numbers
Rift playing with numbers
So maybe Trion learned after their own stunt not to play these games and maybe not. I definitely know they didn't learn from the past of others...
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
I'm the guy nobody is going to believe. If you googled my name "Kenneth Joseph Spaziani" and "Galexia" you'll find I'm a musician signed under atlantic, My buddy (not close friend but worked with him on some soundscapes for an indie movie) ended up grabbing a job at trion around a year ago, and did the engineering on the score you hear through-out the game along with 2 other engineers and a full cast of a studio team.
---------I play RIFT, and I had completely forgotten about him working there since we lost touch, until he mail'd me a free Collectors edition, along with a special autograpged soundtrack, a few lithogram? (the clear sheets with the art), a size small Defiant shirt and a size small Guardian shirt (he remembered my size, so I feel bad for forgetting about him, hopefully he doesn't notice this post LOL) and a poster signed by the whole dev team.----------
Thus I ended up giving him a call about 3 nights ago (may have been 4, I've been addicted to Dragon Age 2 and time is an oddity) saying that I already digitally own the collectors through STEAM and love the game played through beta, and I asked him about the one million accounts, and he stated "Yes this is created account during open beta and closed combined along with initial pre-launch numbers" so that clairfies the obvious there, I asked why a press release has not been released for RIFT's subscriber numbers? he stated they had hit over "200K box sales, and 650 rounded down Digital Sales, with the MOST coming from Steam, second Direct 2 Drive, third Trion Worlds website." He then stated that they are going to release a press release once it hits 1 million active payment subscribers - and have a special "something something" for the player base in game when they hit the 1 million mark.
He said its been a consistantly steady flow upwards, thus the analyst giving them the go ahead to order the servers, all of which have players on it. and from myself, I mentioned to him to tell someone that is further up the chain that I know of multiple people from other MMO's like WoW for example, my buddies rather large raiding guild, dissolved due to Rift and the guild leaders re-formed the guild in RIFT, along with about 50-60% of the guild- and at this point he was one of the last to get it due to him not having much money and it being a tough decision to leave WoW but his raid status was gone and he could play with the same people, basically about 150-160ish of the 190 active players in his guild Transfered to the RIFT version of the guild, and the WoW guild is now empty aside from a few of these players who stayed in WoW who transfered factions or servers. --------------- My engineering friend up at trion said "Word around the office is this has been a growing trend, and that it seems 100% of these people are instant gratification, they want the digital version so they can play that moment, and that we have not even accounted for these sales yet" - --
He then joked and said --
"we could have 2 million due to flow of people leaving other games, buying digitally and us not getting the trend report (a sales report that is weekly or bi weekly) varies from each digital retailer and they do not know until they receive it"
He laughed when he said the 2 million as he knows it isn't true but the point he made wa with digital vendors, the trend reports come at alternating times for all the vendors, only through the Trion store can they get the sale marked as a sale instantly, they can see accounts created due to these digital purchases though.
I'm gonna get flamed because I'm one of those "Fake Insiders" but look through my post history since I've been here, read all of them - I've never made up and bullshit, its good to be in the music industry as you meet a lot of people, I love the stuff he sent me, and I'm glad I caught up with an old friend...
the last note was that he personally felt games like "Dragon Age 2 being released directly after will initially hurt sales a bit, some people will buy both and play both, some people will want the MMO experience and not the single player RPG experience, but it is a HIGHLY anticipated game that is set to sell over 3-4 million opening as the past Bioware titles have sold - he stated once people are completed with Dragon Age 2 even playing once or twice, they feel that they will get even more subscribers from people looking for their RPG fix - he said this was not a major issue, it was just a question I asked since I stated that I only log on for a bit of pvp everyday right now since I'm playing Dragon Age 2 and waiting to beat it." --- "he also said with "The Witcher 2" on the way, it will also slow sales - he said the best they can do is to keep the advertisements on websites especially the World of Warcraft database / quest websites, MMO info sites and Wikia's and know that world wide a lot of people would rather play a solid single player RPG for the 60 dollars than 50-60 for an MMO then a monthly fee - but he stated once the asian market is opened up they are already estimated a few million right off that bat due to the US and EU sucess"
Take my words for a grain of salt, thats perfectly fine - I am letting you know what my buddy I've worked with who works for the company told me... and it seemed like he was both excited and hesitant - more hesitant when he brought up the DA2 and The Witcher 2, he even mentioned Crysis 2 being close and bulletstorm being the same day saying "Alot of MMO'ers are FPSers, I know I am (myself too) and it depends on the wallet of the player and what they expect to be the better game, thus we need to campaign and advertise and let reviews help move it along to help decide that a persons 50 US dollars is better spent here, than a persons 60 US dollar son a 10 hour FPS."
Thats my inside scoop, believe it or not, take it in or leave it out - thats fine with me, I'm just glad I could contribute SOMETHING that is honest to the conversation
-waits to get eaten alive, and most likely will not respond, you have my conversation.. I cannot cite a source as it was not an e-mail, just take the info and keep it in the back of your mind for when they hit 1 million and everyone gets an item flashing in their mailbox in game ;P ).
1) The only way to make that stance any more vague and nebulous is to say that every mmo has had numbers in ads since 2004.
2) You list three free to play games, which are games that don't have monthly subscribers, and an NCSoft financial thing. Is your stance really "Look, these guys had numbers in their ads!"? Are you saying you don't know the difference between pre-orders and sales at release?
And what does this have to do with actual first month sales - digital or retail - which is what was being discussed?
Ok, you've just made it clear that your goal really isn't to discuss anything but to go to whatever lengths necessary to simply 'be right.'
Fine. You're right, Ramon. Not sure what youre right about, but you are most certainly 100% correct. Cheers!
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
My only point (for you) was that mmo companies do use numbers to bolster interest in their respective games through marketing, financial reports and articles. I never said it was a bad thing or they shouldn't do it. I simply wanted to point out that IF Trion had such a impressive number of pre-sales/DDs, what makes you think they would not follow the path that so many companies have done before? Also I even listed Rifts attempt at this, yet you still greet me with sharp tongue? Oh behave!
"Small minds talk about people, average minds talk about events, great minds talk about ideas."
Look guys! These numbers were posted on the internet, so it must be true!!!
/what?
A Rift server with a full queue has close to 2k players on it, people have actually counted this so it is pretty much fact.
Since the game is new most likely the total players on a server are pretty low right now because of the nature of the queue system, it won't surprise me if the number is 10k or less on a busy server right now with room to grow in the future as people play less and the population spreads out.
This number at best is the US only box sales or something, the numbers make no sense otherwise.
They almost certainly have at least 1500 active players per server prime time which means a low estimate is 150k active players each day during prime time hours. They almost certainly have at least 4 times that many players total so the lowest end projection is 600k players. They may have hit 1 million or they may not have but these numbers posted really make no sense. I say this as someone who thinks Rift is not a very good game which you can tell by just browsing my posts so it if it is biased it is on the low end.
I never bought Rift. I found it a bit boring. And I am far from a fanboy.
That said.. there is NO possible way they only sold 120k boxes. There are simply too many servers that are occupied heavily. Forget about queues (we don´t know how many the game lets in) and forget about their catagories (low, medium, high).. the fact is there are 100 servers and players are seeing tons of other players. NOBODY is complaining about ghostown servers which would surely be happening if they had 120k players and 100 servers. This physical evidence supports the view that their server load and catagories are fairly normal for MMORPGs. Which means 2 to 3k concurrent and about 10k players per server (once it settles down). Because at launch, players play MUCH more than they will later on.. that 10k players per server is probably closer to 5 or 7k.
I don´t think there is any possible way it is less than 500k, and probably closer to 650k. 120k sounds about right for physical box sales.
I actually find this post pretty interesting.. as long as it is true and not a fictional posting. I wonder what is going to happen once sales hit 1 million, if they even do. I think that one million active accounts, active players, is a huge success of a new MMO in this community. Any game, that hits those numbers, is giving blizzard a headache as well. I'm wondering what blizzard will do if these numbers actually will exist. Will they do osmething different to WoW? I wonder if people playing WoW have been hearing about Rift in game, and if they do, what differences has blizzard done in game to make poeple continuing to play the game... Have they made drops happen more often? Are they going to make a patch to make the game more inticing and if so what would the content be?
So im guessing its closer to this, watch about 14:00 mark
http://www.gamebreaker.tv/rift-this-week-in-mmo-37-rift-vs-the-world/
Math sounds good to me but just my 2 cents
P.S 8:00 if ya like Blizzard conspiracy theories
The following statement is false
The previous statement is true