I would love for SW:TOR to be a huge sucess but i can't honestly believe it.
The game does what other games have done in the past, with a different skin, but with what looks like to be the exact same gameplay.
Luckly for all of us, this game will not make or break the MMORPG genre, if anything does that it will be the Titan project, but untill then we do have a couple of different alternatives that might revive the genre, but SW:TOR is not one of them.
It will be another Rift, Warhammer, Aion. The only game that has a chance is GW2. Star Wars: The Old Republic is just WoW with a different dress on.
I am getting tired of the "GW2 will be the savior of MMO's" junk. It will also be like all of those you named. I get it that people are excited about GW2, but this is ridiculous. A new toolbar for underwater combat /gasp
come on...
Not a savior, but I do hope it will set a new standard with there dynamic events (regardless if well implemented in GW2 or not).
God I sure hope it doesn't, SW:ToR honestly looks too much to me like another world of warcraft clone, from the recent flashpoint video I got that feeling, needless to say my enthusasim or rather what little I had pretty much went bye bye. In the end, about all SW:Tor will be is yet another little talked about world of warcraft clone about 1-2 months after release, just like rift, no one really mentions it anymore. I just can't wait for release day to see all the rage on various forums about how the game is, how it does not live up to the hype. It happens to everygame, but its going to be especally bad I think for SW:TOR due to the IP and the Studio that made the game and how famous both are. I like Bioware's games myself, but not enough to buy their first mmo on blind faith. I am sure it'll keep enough people to stay alive though thats a give in, pretty much every p2p mmo has enough people to last a bit after release.
All I can say is a smooth launch is a major factor in a MMO's overall success, have a bad launch and well. look at FF14, still free to play last I checked, and it hardly has anyone left in game due to how bad it was. Some games can recover, but most sadly don't. The key factor is, getting major bugs, balance issues and such balanced out during the first month, If you show your games players/your customers your able to fix things quickly, they will be more inclined to stick around.
Being a pessimist is a win-win pattern of thinking. If you're a pessimist (I'll admit that I am!) you're either:
A. Proven right (if something bad happens)
or
B. Pleasantly surprised (if something good happens)
It will be another Rift, Warhammer, Aion. The only game that has a chance is GW2. Star Wars: The Old Republic is just WoW with a different dress on.
I am getting tired of the "GW2 will be the savior of MMO's" junk. It will also be like all of those you named. I get it that people are excited about GW2, but this is ridiculous. A new toolbar for underwater combat /gasp
come on...
Not a savior, but I do hope it will set a new standard with there dynamic events (regardless if well implemented in GW2 or not).
I'm curious, did any of his "failure" predictions actually come about?
1) If WAR fails, we won’t have the excuse (as some devs have had) of not having the money or the license.
Hmm, SWG immediately springs to mind.
2) If WAR fails, investors will rapidly look to other business models for MMORPGs especially ones that require less of an investment and development cycle to bring to market. We may be coming very close to the tipping point where investors have seen far too many games fail on release and even more of them fail to even launch for them to be comfortable investing large sums in this market. They will prefer to invest in safer things, like large-scale, cold fusion reactors.
Hmm, SWTOR immediately springs to mind.
3) If WAR fails, players will see yet again another MMORPG fail to live up to its promise. Given the high expectations and tremendous pre-sales we are getting, the fall will be that much harder to take. One of the problems of having high expectations for a game is that if you fail, the fall will be much longer and will hurt that much more when you hit pavement.
Self evident. Burn me once, shame on me. Burn me twice, shame on you. Incdentive for Devs to do better work? Disincentive to operate on venture capital rush-to-market games?
4) If WAR fails, publishers will be even less inclined to take on Blizzard whether it’s WoW or their next MMO. This will drive more developers out of the market and fewer AAA, subscription-base MMORPGs will start. Just look at how few MMORPGs are in development at studios (as opposed to getting outside financing) today. Does anyone really think that if WAR is a failure that this will increase the number of MMORPGs in development? If you think so and you happen to have a few spare million, I’d love to sell you some oceanfront property I own in Idaho.
Again, SWTOR immediately springs to mind.
You've got a .250 batting average as a slippery slope predictor, Mr. Jacobs. And the one you did "hit" wasn't much of a prediction.
But we've got players here making the same predictions, so your delusion appears to be contagious.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
It will be another Rift, Warhammer, Aion. The only game that has a chance is GW2. Star Wars: The Old Republic is just WoW with a different dress on.
I am getting tired of the "GW2 will be the savior of MMO's" junk. It will also be like all of those you named. I get it that people are excited about GW2, but this is ridiculous. A new toolbar for underwater combat /gasp
come on...
Not a savior, but I do hope it will set a new standard with there dynamic events (regardless if well implemented in GW2 or not).
Remember...Rift has dynamic events.
Yea I was thinking that as well Bigsmiff. Others have touched on it as well. The PC gaming market has been in a decline for a few years now and social gaming is on the rise along with console gaming. Further large financial losses in MMO investment will likely turn more investors to the low investment, huge return social gaming (BTW look at how many past PC gaming and mmo development studios are now invested in social gaming including Bioware, Blizzard, etc...). If companies see that investing in a certain product results in losses or break even they will look elsewhere for where to funnel their money. Any mmo that fails is damaging to the genre as a whole. The level of impact is debatable. Keep in mind investors expect more bang for their buck hese days. Where 4 to 10% returns were fantastic in the past investors strive now-a-days for doubling their money in as short as possible.
Multiple games were attempting innovation years ago with multiple sandbox elements, permadeath, etc... but most ran out of development or were forced to launch early and fail. Is it any wonder most mmos have copied the proven path? According to Trion RIFT is making them money. According to NCsoft AION is making money. WAR is the only viable example and it was a pvp driven game produced by a company that promised EA a fully functional mmo in a 3 year development cycle. Mythic attempted to innovate the development cycle of mmos and failed.
Cheers!
MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S
I'm curious, did any of his "failure" predictions actually come about?
I would say 2 out of the 4 points came about, but those 2 are more about WAR then they were about the MMO market. The 2 points I am referring to are:
1) If WAR fails, we won’t have the excuse (as some devs have had) of not having the money or the license.
and
2) If WAR fails, players will see yet again another MMORPG fail to live up to its promise. Given the high expectations and tremendous pre-sales we are getting, the fall will be that much harder to take. One of the problems of having high expectations for a game is that if you fail, the fall will be much longer and will hurt that much more when you hit pavement.
The other 2 did not really pan out the way he said, but who knows if MMOs keep failing like they have been in the U.S. what he said might eventually happen, and the MMO market will dry up at least in the states. In Asia the MMO market is making money hand over foot.
The other 2 did not really pan out the way he said, but who knows if MMOs keep failing like they have been in the U.S. what he said might eventually happen, and the MMO market will dry up at least in the states. In Asia the MMO market is making money hand over foot.
It's really worth noting that most of WoW's numbers come from Asia as well.
Really, forget Asians trying to Americanize their games for the US market... the US MMORPG makers should be shamelessly groveling and marketing their gameplay towards Asians, because apparently that's where the money is at.
Well, I pegged him at .250, but at any rate he's a good example of why slippery slope arguments are fallacies.
Now if only we could get a few less crystal ball rubbers telling us what the future holds on this forum...naw, never happen.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Really, forget Asians trying to Americanize their games for the US market... the US MMORPG makers should be shamelessly groveling and marketing their gameplay towards Asians, because apparently that's where the money is at.
Marketing in Asia involves translating every line in your game, and culturally translating your game as well. Then there's overseas server infrastructure, fun with the local legalities, etc.
It's pretty much out of the question for the smaller developers.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Really, forget Asians trying to Americanize their games for the US market... the US MMORPG makers should be shamelessly groveling and marketing their gameplay towards Asians, because apparently that's where the money is at.
Marketing in Asia involves translating every line in your game, and culturally translating your game as well. Then there's overseas server infrastructure, fun with the local legalities, etc.
It's pretty much out of the question for the smaller developers.
... but all those little crappy Asian F2P games somehow make it to the US. Somebody needs to start a company in either China, Korea or Japan, where they buy up rights cheap from US MMORPG makers, and shoddily translates the games for Asians who are interested in what the US has to offer.
It's only fair! It happens one way all the time, why not in the opposite direction as well?
It's not like there's no precedent. There's a pretty big market for US movie blockbusters in Asia. There's a lot of fantasy/SF that gets ported over too.
Originally posted by Scambug I doubt TORs failure would be the end of MMORPGs. I'm hoping, however, that if it fails, devs and investors will finally stop thinking that copying the WoW formula is the only way to go. This endless cloning of the one big hit is what is kiling the genre, IMO, nothing else.
As much as I'd like to see some real innovation in a AAA title, I doubt it'll happen any time soon. Copying what's popular has worked so far in the console market, Hollywood, music, and tv. The clones may not be as popular, or make as much money as the successes they emulate, but they're clearly doing well enough, and making enough of a profit, for the process to carry on.
The genre is only around 10 years old, though. Over the next 10 years, as the technology behind the games becomes cheaper, and more readily available, I think indie developers will start to show what can be done in the genre in much the same way that indie games are gaining traction in the single player market.
I can't speak for the whole MMO genre, but if the game fails, I for one, won't be buying another MMO.. I was hoping TSW would bring something new as well, but the combat we've seen from the videos so far doesn't impress me..
So yeah.. After getting bored to tears of WoW, playing CoH for over a year, being caught by the hype train of CO, Aion, WAR... TOR is my last chance with the genre..
if space wow with voices fails I hope it does cause a huge decline in the player base. I liked the games a lot better before they were popular. (read games as mmo industry)
if space wow with voices fails I hope it does cause a huge decline in the player base. I liked the games a lot better before they were popular. (read games as mmo industry)
So you're a MUD fan then?
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
It will be another Rift, Warhammer, Aion. The only game that has a chance is GW2. Star Wars: The Old Republic is just WoW with a different dress on.
I have to disagree in the largest manner possible.
This is so far from Aion, rift, war.. any of them...
The Old republic series, and the Star Wars IP has one of the biggest fanbase of any IP, bigger then any of those games for those that were based off established IPs.
I think the market does hing on this... based off the points i made, if you can't see that then atleast provide some counter issues.
I think you're putting too much faith in the Star Wars IP, just today I was playing EQ2 and someone asked if anyone had pre-ordered SWTOR and 2 people replied, "no, what is SWOTOR?"
Now, while it's true, I figure they must live under a rock, the reality is that many people have zero interest in Science fiction, in fact, in the bookstore the fantasy books out-number them by a considerable margin (since they are usually grouped together)
My son and his friends (all around 18-19 yrs old) are all aware of SWOTOR, know what Star Wars is, and have absolutely no interest in playing, they're all fully engaged in WOW this summer.
No doubt this game is selling big at first, maybe even 2-3 million copies, but within 6-9 months I think we'll find it doesn't have the "legs' WOW did to continually bring in new players year after year, once SWTOR burns through its fanbase the IP will hold little appeal.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
not much for me to say other than it isnt the last hope for mmorpg's, the end of 2001 and 2012 is bringing in a new era for mmorpg's you cant just lay all the hopes of an mmorpg community into one game, its not gonna satisfy everyone, i know it wont me its just not my sorta game
Am I the only person that thinks the OP is too late in his prediction? Aren't AAA MMOs already dead? It takes years for games to be developed and right now the only two AAA games in the pipeline are SWTOR and GW2, everything else is niche games and games from small developers. Both these games come out soon and then what?
It seems that the major game companies have already given up on AAA MMORPGs. Now they just want to produce quick cheap disposable MMOs to make a few bucks and move on; the Perfect World model.
The MMO market won't live or die by SWTOR; it's already dead.
What about World of Darkness? Planetside 2? The next Everquest game? Titan? All the games other people in the thread listed?
Comments
The *really* sad part of that is that Facebook, browser and mobile games are where a lot of the money is headed these days.
I would love for SW:TOR to be a huge sucess but i can't honestly believe it.
The game does what other games have done in the past, with a different skin, but with what looks like to be the exact same gameplay.
Luckly for all of us, this game will not make or break the MMORPG genre, if anything does that it will be the Titan project, but untill then we do have a couple of different alternatives that might revive the genre, but SW:TOR is not one of them.
Not a savior, but I do hope it will set a new standard with there dynamic events (regardless if well implemented in GW2 or not).
God I sure hope it doesn't, SW:ToR honestly looks too much to me like another world of warcraft clone, from the recent flashpoint video I got that feeling, needless to say my enthusasim or rather what little I had pretty much went bye bye. In the end, about all SW:Tor will be is yet another little talked about world of warcraft clone about 1-2 months after release, just like rift, no one really mentions it anymore. I just can't wait for release day to see all the rage on various forums about how the game is, how it does not live up to the hype. It happens to everygame, but its going to be especally bad I think for SW:TOR due to the IP and the Studio that made the game and how famous both are. I like Bioware's games myself, but not enough to buy their first mmo on blind faith. I am sure it'll keep enough people to stay alive though thats a give in, pretty much every p2p mmo has enough people to last a bit after release.
All I can say is a smooth launch is a major factor in a MMO's overall success, have a bad launch and well. look at FF14, still free to play last I checked, and it hardly has anyone left in game due to how bad it was. Some games can recover, but most sadly don't. The key factor is, getting major bugs, balance issues and such balanced out during the first month, If you show your games players/your customers your able to fix things quickly, they will be more inclined to stick around.
Being a pessimist is a win-win pattern of thinking. If you're a pessimist (I'll admit that I am!) you're either:
A. Proven right (if something bad happens)
or
B. Pleasantly surprised (if something good happens)
Either way, you can't lose! Try it out sometime!
Remember...Rift has dynamic events.
From Mark Jacobs own mouth, on a side note surprised you did not know about this article it was pretty big before the game launched.
http://onlinegamesareanichemarket.wordpress.com/2008/09/03/what-does-wars-success-or-failure-mean-for-the-mmorpg-market/
Yeah and saying that Rift’s rifts are like GW2 dynamic events, is like saying a sword is exactly like a chisel.
I'm curious, did any of his "failure" predictions actually come about?
1) If WAR fails, we won’t have the excuse (as some devs have had) of not having the money or the license.
Hmm, SWG immediately springs to mind.
2) If WAR fails, investors will rapidly look to other business models for MMORPGs especially ones that require less of an investment and development cycle to bring to market. We may be coming very close to the tipping point where investors have seen far too many games fail on release and even more of them fail to even launch for them to be comfortable investing large sums in this market. They will prefer to invest in safer things, like large-scale, cold fusion reactors.
Hmm, SWTOR immediately springs to mind.
3) If WAR fails, players will see yet again another MMORPG fail to live up to its promise. Given the high expectations and tremendous pre-sales we are getting, the fall will be that much harder to take. One of the problems of having high expectations for a game is that if you fail, the fall will be much longer and will hurt that much more when you hit pavement.
Self evident. Burn me once, shame on me. Burn me twice, shame on you. Incdentive for Devs to do better work? Disincentive to operate on venture capital rush-to-market games?
4) If WAR fails, publishers will be even less inclined to take on Blizzard whether it’s WoW or their next MMO. This will drive more developers out of the market and fewer AAA, subscription-base MMORPGs will start. Just look at how few MMORPGs are in development at studios (as opposed to getting outside financing) today. Does anyone really think that if WAR is a failure that this will increase the number of MMORPGs in development? If you think so and you happen to have a few spare million, I’d love to sell you some oceanfront property I own in Idaho.
Again, SWTOR immediately springs to mind.
You've got a .250 batting average as a slippery slope predictor, Mr. Jacobs. And the one you did "hit" wasn't much of a prediction.
But we've got players here making the same predictions, so your delusion appears to be contagious.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Yea I was thinking that as well Bigsmiff. Others have touched on it as well. The PC gaming market has been in a decline for a few years now and social gaming is on the rise along with console gaming. Further large financial losses in MMO investment will likely turn more investors to the low investment, huge return social gaming (BTW look at how many past PC gaming and mmo development studios are now invested in social gaming including Bioware, Blizzard, etc...). If companies see that investing in a certain product results in losses or break even they will look elsewhere for where to funnel their money. Any mmo that fails is damaging to the genre as a whole. The level of impact is debatable. Keep in mind investors expect more bang for their buck hese days. Where 4 to 10% returns were fantastic in the past investors strive now-a-days for doubling their money in as short as possible.
Multiple games were attempting innovation years ago with multiple sandbox elements, permadeath, etc... but most ran out of development or were forced to launch early and fail. Is it any wonder most mmos have copied the proven path? According to Trion RIFT is making them money. According to NCsoft AION is making money. WAR is the only viable example and it was a pvp driven game produced by a company that promised EA a fully functional mmo in a 3 year development cycle. Mythic attempted to innovate the development cycle of mmos and failed.
Cheers!
MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S
I would say 2 out of the 4 points came about, but those 2 are more about WAR then they were about the MMO market. The 2 points I am referring to are:
1) If WAR fails, we won’t have the excuse (as some devs have had) of not having the money or the license.
and
2) If WAR fails, players will see yet again another MMORPG fail to live up to its promise. Given the high expectations and tremendous pre-sales we are getting, the fall will be that much harder to take. One of the problems of having high expectations for a game is that if you fail, the fall will be much longer and will hurt that much more when you hit pavement.
The other 2 did not really pan out the way he said, but who knows if MMOs keep failing like they have been in the U.S. what he said might eventually happen, and the MMO market will dry up at least in the states. In Asia the MMO market is making money hand over foot.
It's really worth noting that most of WoW's numbers come from Asia as well.
Really, forget Asians trying to Americanize their games for the US market... the US MMORPG makers should be shamelessly groveling and marketing their gameplay towards Asians, because apparently that's where the money is at.
Well, I pegged him at .250, but at any rate he's a good example of why slippery slope arguments are fallacies.
Now if only we could get a few less crystal ball rubbers telling us what the future holds on this forum...naw, never happen.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Marketing in Asia involves translating every line in your game, and culturally translating your game as well. Then there's overseas server infrastructure, fun with the local legalities, etc.
It's pretty much out of the question for the smaller developers.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
... but all those little crappy Asian F2P games somehow make it to the US. Somebody needs to start a company in either China, Korea or Japan, where they buy up rights cheap from US MMORPG makers, and shoddily translates the games for Asians who are interested in what the US has to offer.
It's only fair! It happens one way all the time, why not in the opposite direction as well?
It's not like there's no precedent. There's a pretty big market for US movie blockbusters in Asia. There's a lot of fantasy/SF that gets ported over too.
Thank you, i cound't find it!
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
Pffft ........ same old stuff in a different wrapper.
3 ... 2... 3.... 6 .....3 ....2 ....3.....6 ...
<TAB>
3 ... 2... 3.... 6 .....3 ....2 ....3.....6 ..
<TAB>
If this is your last hope you might as well turn in your gamer card now. Sci Fi WOW, nothing more .....
~Hairysun
http://www.straightdope.com/
As much as I'd like to see some real innovation in a AAA title, I doubt it'll happen any time soon. Copying what's popular has worked so far in the console market, Hollywood, music, and tv. The clones may not be as popular, or make as much money as the successes they emulate, but they're clearly doing well enough, and making enough of a profit, for the process to carry on.
The genre is only around 10 years old, though. Over the next 10 years, as the technology behind the games becomes cheaper, and more readily available, I think indie developers will start to show what can be done in the genre in much the same way that indie games are gaining traction in the single player market.
I can't speak for the whole MMO genre, but if the game fails, I for one, won't be buying another MMO.. I was hoping TSW would bring something new as well, but the combat we've seen from the videos so far doesn't impress me..
So yeah.. After getting bored to tears of WoW, playing CoH for over a year, being caught by the hype train of CO, Aion, WAR... TOR is my last chance with the genre..
if space wow with voices fails I hope it does cause a huge decline in the player base. I liked the games a lot better before they were popular. (read games as mmo industry)
So you're a MUD fan then?
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
I think you're putting too much faith in the Star Wars IP, just today I was playing EQ2 and someone asked if anyone had pre-ordered SWTOR and 2 people replied, "no, what is SWOTOR?"
Now, while it's true, I figure they must live under a rock, the reality is that many people have zero interest in Science fiction, in fact, in the bookstore the fantasy books out-number them by a considerable margin (since they are usually grouped together)
My son and his friends (all around 18-19 yrs old) are all aware of SWOTOR, know what Star Wars is, and have absolutely no interest in playing, they're all fully engaged in WOW this summer.
No doubt this game is selling big at first, maybe even 2-3 million copies, but within 6-9 months I think we'll find it doesn't have the "legs' WOW did to continually bring in new players year after year, once SWTOR burns through its fanbase the IP will hold little appeal.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
not much for me to say other than it isnt the last hope for mmorpg's, the end of 2001 and 2012 is bringing in a new era for mmorpg's you cant just lay all the hopes of an mmorpg community into one game, its not gonna satisfy everyone, i know it wont me its just not my sorta game
What about World of Darkness? Planetside 2? The next Everquest game? Titan? All the games other people in the thread listed?
Edit: Questions for the OP.
I agree.
And I have no idea why the OP only has SWTOR in his/her sights. Tunnel Vision? SWTOR Fanboism?
IMO GW2 will be even better than SWTOR, but that is another topic.
"My Fantasy is having two men at once...
One Cooking and One Cleaning!"
---------------------------
"A good man can make you feel sexy,
strong and able to take on the whole world...
oh sorry...that's wine...wine does that..."
Of Course!
I think I actually spent way more time reading and theorycrafting about MMOs than playing them