swtor wont be any diff than the other mmo, sell alot first then lose 50% after 1 month.
I totally disagree with that. While there is always a drop off after the initial surge with the many hundreds of hours of personal stories, plus flashpoints and a desire to see and play end game (8 and 16 man raids, Legacy system, etc) it will have staying power for the average player of a LOT longer.
Also, if SWTOR fails on a business level the OP is close to the mark. All publishers eyes are on TOR (NOt GW2 even though I can't wait to play that either). IF BIoware+ Star Wars+ 83 million dollars and some 6 years of development can't create a hit only a fool would think that won't have a MAJOR hit on the MMO industry and forever change the face of how other companies view and pursue the development of these games. It is simple economics. It WILL NOT result in people developing Niche Sandbox MMOs either as some might wish for.
GW2 is a non-factor here. It will not have even remotely close to the draw and appeal of the general public that a TOR will have as it is drawing off the massive fan base of Star Wars, the creators of Dragon Age and Mass Effect, and with the EA marketing team behind it. In my personal circles I see evidence of this. Friends who have never wanted to touch an MMO have actually pre-ordered TOR. I think GW2 will be outstanding by what I have seen but the appeal is mostly for the MMO community and the GW fans.
Lastly, any one who says TOR is sci-fi WOW reskinned either has sandbox blinders of hate on or has not followed the development of the game. This is a sad, tired old statement.
It is so misguided to say if game X fails, then industry Y is doomed.
You can't predict the fate of an entire industry based on the success of a single product. You have to look at the industry as a whole. For example, if SWTOR fails, but the MMORPG industry continues to grow because of other games, then the industry obviously did not fail. This is especially true for an industry where there are soooo many competitors, like the MMORPG industry.
It's like saying that if Crest fails then toothpaste is doomed. No...everyone will just buy Colgate!
For a real example of an industry failing (or at least declining), look at music games. Music games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, etc.) used to be EXTREMELY popular. But then people just started to lose interest around Guitar Hero World Tour and when Rock Band 3 came out, it sold a paltry number of copies despite having major innovations and receiving extremely positive reviews.
swtor wont be any diff than the other mmo, sell alot first then lose 50% after 1 month.
This is very true.
Who can remember when MMO's could boast of having 500k subscribers? it was no mean feat back then.
When the next MMO came along the old MMO lost a few but new players came onto the scene due to better advertising and the genre becoming more widely known, so subs started to drop to about 200k to 300k per MMO, still turning in a profit and each MMO boasting a healthy population.
Then the dark clouds came rolling over the hills and we had WoW, all of sudden every MMO out there turned into a ghost ship, WoW turned into the blackhole of MMO's, sucking in everything and when you tried to escape to a new MMO you found an irresistable pull back to WoW after a month or 2.
Inexplicable as it is, this shallow, content sparse game has a strong hold on alot of players, sure they move about abit, trying out new MMO's, trying to escape WoW, but when your guild friends remain behind and start clearing bosses you haven't seen yet, and when the loot you've been crazing for starts to go spare on the ground, then your new found loyalties get tested to the extreme, you know you shouldn't go back, you know the game your playing is a breath of fresh air and that in all honesty you are enjoying it, but that urge to head back because you think your missing something is too strong.
Before WoW came out, moving from 1 MMO to the next was a done deal, 9 times out a 10 you stayed put, for at least a year, but WoW really has thrown a spanner in the works, because of the commitment so many ppl have ploughed into the game.
I have gone without heading back to wow for over a year now, I feel the better for it, however I am in MMO limbo, bouncing from 1 old MMO to the next, never settling, never able to find a suitable new home, I also blame in part SWTOR for my troubles, I want to settle down in an MMO but I don't want to get comfortable knowing that I'l uproot once SWTOR goes live.
So yes it's true SWTOR will lost 50% of it's player base after about a month or 2, but you know it's only the WoW crowd on a "Break" from their main addiction, the rest are keepers though and hopefully as word spreads how "Potentially" good SWTOR really is we may see a new crowd of MMO players move into the genre, just as they did for WoW, and so the whole process will repeat itself years down the line, when SWTOR becomes the new blackhole of MMO gaming.
I think what the OP means is that the genre will lose funding, because if SWTOR fails, most investors will no longer be interested in the MMORPG genre. You see, most investors want an investment that guarantees a return.
SWTOR represents, possibly to our knowledge, the best conditions the genre can give. Star Wars is one of the largest IP's, spanning, books, toys, video games, board games, movies, and TV shows. The IP is way more popular than the Warcraft IP. The genre has also been stagnant for several years now. Also, Bioware is probably one of the most revered RPG developers. Combine that with the largest budget for a MMORPG ever, investors are probably looking at SWTOR's release with a lot of interest. If SWTOR succeeds, as the OP said, then WoW wasn't a fluke and the genre is still worth investing in. If SWTOR fails, then investors will think that the genre is too risky for an investment. After all, what hope can other developers have in succeeding if arguably the best RPG developer with a successful history of making RPG games, with the size of the budget they have, and the size of the IP's fanbase failed?
There are many people responding to the OP without actually considering the implications of what I've said, and instead seem to be thrashing the OP in some hopes of gaining rep with other MMORPG.COM posters.
Edit: I almost forgot. If a game that has one of the best RPG developers making it, the largest budget afforded to it, and possibly one of the largest IP's ever thought of being made into a MMO fails, do you think investors will be more likely or less likely to invest in MMORPG's.
If you think they'll be less likely, which I think is the logical conclusion, don't you agree that the genre will see less AAA well polished MMORPG's made, and instead if any, will only see Indy games made? That's what I think will happen, but that doesn't exactly mean that's a bad thing. I did like the genre more when it was smaller and the community only consisted of players who liked gaming (ie. likes to think ), liked socializing in that game, and preferred to work with other players than play alone.
I'm just going to say this isn't the first game to have such hype and everytime people call the end to the genre if this "one game fails" but in honest you don't need to have a WoW base of success. There are plenty of games that haven't failed for if they "failed" they wouldn't even be a company. This game looks good and promising but its hardly the last hope and mmos aren't going away anytime soon IMO. Wow is huge but just because a game have 3 servers of dedicated players doesn't mean it failed and in fact i usually like games with smaller communities and are not "the wow killer" that everyone has been calling for for years now. Most game that "fail" tend to be way funner more interactive and much better communities and if there still around 5-10 years later then the game was not a fail they still made money off the game if they kept it running that long. If you go over to GW2 side someone over there is probably saying similar things and same with rift and honestly countless games before all that. I read alot more and i don't post often but this is the 10000 thread i seen with the same idea since i been a member. I believe this game will suceed in at least having a loyal fanbase after the hype even if its not 12 million or w/e WoW claims to have these days. I hope for the game to be good and suceed and i believe it will and ofcourse when its released people WILL be disappointed and some will love it. And you can't blame a company for trying to make money thats what there suppose to do otherwise these games wouldn't even exist.
And remember its not just that "in the old days games were so much better" its the times you had on those games that made them magical as well and sometimes there are never obtainable again. I'm sure the younger generation that started with WoW will be saying the same thing 10 years from now too its just life. I personally think theres lots of good game out there that i have enjoyed and atleast got a couple of months out of to say if its not WoW then it failed. My opinion i just wanted to say the genre not going anywhere there will always be people wanting to play MMO because single player games as fun as some are just get plain lonely and if this is the Armagedon that every claims it to be then why is the genre bigger then it ever was. Playing games is becoming normal not just the nerds and the geeks anymore. Just my opinion i don't think this game will decide the MMO market or not and WoW's not a fluke, a fluke does not last that long, blizzard just knows how to make great games even if i didn't like it doesn't mean its not good.
BTW investors are still getting a return and making plenty of money its the actual game developers that work slave hours for free even sometimes to just make a name for them selves. In short to all this just because they don't have 12mil subscribers doesn't mean they didn't make money at all otherwise this genre would have dies years ago except for WoW.
1. I keep hearing people saw "Big deal if SWTOR fails, we have GW2".
- First off thats crap, GW isn't an MMORPG to begin with, it's an RPG with online elements, unless they are changing that fact in GW2, i ain't buy that.
- 2nd off, the players of the GW franchise are not the -bulk- of the MMO consumer base, they are not even an MMO consumer, again, i ain't buying it.
2. If not SWTOR then what? It will always be the same -- " hype that game, it fails, hype this game it fails", rinse repeat.. the industry will degrade into superficial titles that become money sinks for both consumer, and industry, open your eyes Vet MMO'ers are already quitting the genre in flocks for so many this is the last chance.
You killed all the credibility you had...
oh and be ready for the air strike, according to SW:TOR fans this site is in majority following GW2
And who you are to quanity my, or anyone's crediablity? You provide nothing to back up your silly statements.
Maybe most of the MMORPG users do follow GW2, -BUT- majority of MMORPG players DO NOT USE MMORPG.COM
It is so misguided to say if game X fails, then industry Y is doomed.
You can't predict the fate of an entire industry based on the success of a single product. You have to look at the industry as a whole. For example, if SWTOR fails, but the MMORPG industry continues to grow because of other games, then the industry obviously did not fail. This is especially true for an industry where there are soooo many competitors, like the MMORPG industry.
It's like saying that if Crest fails then toothpaste is doomed. No...everyone will just buy Colgate!
For a real example of an industry failing (or at least declining), look at music games. Music games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, etc.) used to be EXTREMELY popular. But then people just started to lose interest around Guitar Hero World Tour and when Rock Band 3 came out, it sold a paltry number of copies despite having major innovations and receiving extremely positive reviews.
Yeah you hit the nail right on the head, if this game fails in some sense to it's investors then expect that more money may be shifted towards development on games that don't follow a strictly themepark development but this games failure couldn't really doom such a fragmented market as mmorpg's.
swtor wont be any diff than the other mmo, sell alot first then lose 50% after 1 month.
yws it will it has a different crafting system all voiced and more tell me which mmo has a character that can talk and the crafting system this game has tell me none :P. your just saying that because you never touched the game play it first then respond back to me hater.
How is SWTOR, litterally an exact same copy of WoW with different character skins and world environment skins something epic?
I don't even understand how you come up with your delusional conclusion that SWTOR is an epic storm approaching.
Furthermore, where do you get this assumption that, since it has the same hype following as WoW, it will be anything promissing with potential?
If it is everything WoW is, and nothing it isn't (which it is), all it's going to do is take a good chunk of subscribers from WoW. That is ALL.
Don't boldly assume majority of people have the same opinion as you do on WoW. As for me personally, I quit the game because battlegrounds made me wonder what the merit was in doing it, and it killed World PvP. Then every damn patch Blizzard implements it caters to impatient whiners who desire instant gratification. I still have few friends playing WoW getting on and off every new update, but that's only because they have nothing better to get back to besides playing AOS like LOL or HON.
And I don't know how many years you've played MMOs in your life, all WoW did was rip-off every successful bits of other MMOs and just made them better or similar.
WoW certainly ripped off EQ, AC2, DAOC hardcore, minus the fact that blizzard failed miserably in trying to immitate DAOC RvR.
SWTOR is just going to be another WoW with same mechanics and mythos of similar calibur. If combat in SWTOR proves to be equal or on par with WoW, it will take a good chunk from the current WoW players, because they've been getting tired of WoW for a long ass time.
If anything, SWTOR might become successful, but with nothing truely revolutionary, it will just even out the subs between WoW. There's no way in hell it's going to have 11mil subs, nor is WoW going to be maintain similar numbers for long.
GRIND sucks? You wanna be max level in a month? Since when did society award easy-goers and lazy-fools? MAKES ME PHOBIC OF STUPIDITY!
It is so misguided to say if game X fails, then industry Y is doomed.
You can't predict the fate of an entire industry based on the success of a single product. You have to look at the industry as a whole. For example, if SWTOR fails, but the MMORPG industry continues to grow because of other games, then the industry obviously did not fail. This is especially true for an industry where there are soooo many competitors, like the MMORPG industry.
It's like saying that if Crest fails then toothpaste is doomed. No...everyone will just buy Colgate!
For a real example of an industry failing (or at least declining), look at music games. Music games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, etc.) used to be EXTREMELY popular. But then people just started to lose interest around Guitar Hero World Tour and when Rock Band 3 came out, it sold a paltry number of copies despite having major innovations and receiving extremely positive reviews.
Yeah you hit the nail right on the head, if this game fails in some sense to it's investors then expect that more money may be shifted towards development on games that don't follow a strictly themepark development but this games failure couldn't really doom such a fragmented market as mmorpg's.
Yeah, they call those single player console games. SWTOR is not likely to fail but should it happen don't go expecting companies to go running out to make the Sandbox game you or others might be looking for We all know the track record for more current Sandbox MMOs. They either fail or are purely a niche for hardcore PVP players. Those resources will shift to a more stable and predictible area of the gaming market.
I will say this again but if Bioware doing a Star Wars MMO with an 80+ million dollar budget and 5-6 years of development fails (on a business level, not the individual player level) you live in wonderland if you think that would not have a major negative impact on the MMO market. Publishers will not want to invest any significant dollars into this space any more.
Don't go counting GW2 in the mix either. It will not have the fan base (GW2 will cater to existing MMO players and GW players) to do what TOR is potentially capable of. Plus, it has a completely different model. I am really looking forward to GW2 as well but am realisitic about its actualy impact on the market.
Sorry Divion but I am going to have to disagree with you. And yes I too have been playing mmorpgs for a long time(since Ultima Online). Games come and go. It is ridiculous to state that the fate of a genre rest on one game. Someday a game will come along that hooks people more then WoW. Maybe it will be SWtoR, maybe not. But that day will come.
Besides there is plenty of room in this genre for more then one big game. The gaming industry is not an all or nothing deal. It does not work that way. No one game will suit everyone. People like variety and choices.
Because , failure of TOR would mean death not to MMO genre as whole , but to Theme park EQ/WOW clone.
And out of ashes sandbox MMOs will be born
But will it fail ?
I have to go with yes. Unless they change it to F2P.
I think this is one of the main reasons a certain kind of hardcore sandbox fans are so despised and disliked, things like this, where people like that wish for MMO's that other MMO gamers are enjoying to fail so that they can have their fun, or in short 'we want MMO's that we like, so we'll wish for everything else to fail in the process, no matter if other MMO gamers enjoyed those games and that's why we'll keep trashtalking those kinds of games'.
It's an intolerance towards other people's gaming fun to an appalling degree.
It is not as you represent it. There is no malice in this.
Its just that as long investors (mistakenly) presume that theme park MMOs are the only sucessful MMO option. Than no investor will invest in Sandbox MMO.
So, for revolution to happen - a theme park must die. And the more gigantic themepark MMO fails , the fall will be lauder and the clearer will be the message.
As for ruining your fun.
Trust me. You will see all the game has to offer long before it fails. ( aka in 3 months )
That logic is faulty. Sandbox MMOs were failing as well. With your logic, no themepark or sandbox MMOs should be considered by investors. Perhaps, they would be better off by investing in Facebook, browser and mobile games instead?
Your sarcasm hit the nail on the head; that is exactly where the money is starting to go. It is more profitable to spend a small amount of money to make a mobile or facebook game and have it get medium returns than to produce an expensive AAA MMO and then have it flop. And flop is all that MMOs have done since WoW.
Google has bought SocialDeck, Zynga has bought out many even smaller companies, even RIM has bought itself Scoreloop. Yeah, as someone pointed out "cough" there are 6 million MMO players in the US; but there are 70 million smartphone users and 64% (http://www.androidauthority.com/smartphone-users-play-games-more-than-listen-to-music-or-read-news-18756/) of them buy games. Which market do you think developers will spend money to go after? cough
It is so misguided to say if game X fails, then industry Y is doomed.
You can't predict the fate of an entire industry based on the success of a single product. You have to look at the industry as a whole. For example, if SWTOR fails, but the MMORPG industry continues to grow because of other games, then the industry obviously did not fail. This is especially true for an industry where there are soooo many competitors, like the MMORPG industry.
It's like saying that if Crest fails then toothpaste is doomed. No...everyone will just buy Colgate!
For a real example of an industry failing (or at least declining), look at music games. Music games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, etc.) used to be EXTREMELY popular. But then people just started to lose interest around Guitar Hero World Tour and when Rock Band 3 came out, it sold a paltry number of copies despite having major innovations and receiving extremely positive reviews.
Yeah you hit the nail right on the head, if this game fails in some sense to it's investors then expect that more money may be shifted towards development on games that don't follow a strictly themepark development but this games failure couldn't really doom such a fragmented market as mmorpg's.
Yeah, they call those single player console games. SWTOR is not likely to fail but should it happen don't go expecting companies to go running out to make the Sandbox game you or others might be looking for We all know the track record for more current Sandbox MMOs. They either fail or are purely a niche for hardcore PVP players. Those resources will shift to a more stable and predictible area of the gaming market.
I will say this again but if Bioware doing a Star Wars MMO with an 80+ million dollar budget and 5-6 years of development fails (on a business level, not the individual player level) you live in wonderland if you think that would not have a major negative impact on the MMO market. Publishers will not want to invest any significant dollars into this space any more.
Don't go counting GW2 in the mix either. It will not have the fan base (GW2 will cater to existing MMO players and GW players) to do what TOR is potentially capable of. Plus, it has a completely different model. I am really looking forward to GW2 as well but am realisitic about its actualy impact on the market.
Heh I'm no sandbox gamer I enjoy gaming in general and sandbox gaming is secondary in entertainment value to themeparks for me I play themeparks for fun and sandboxes for time sinks and I doubt that anyone anytime soon would spend 80 million on a sandbox (and to be honest I don't look forward to the day since I think the sandbox crowd is to picky).
What I do believe is this games failure will not stop investors from spending upwards of 80 million in the mmorpg industry we just may not see a game with that big of a development budget and as an extension I expect the pie to be spread around more equally.
I'm sorry, people are sometimes really retarded.... and it bothers me. OP, you bother me because you are being way too over-dramatic about the situation. If this game fails it fails, end of story. It's just a game, there's nothing genre defining about it besides the plethora of story options that it supposedly has, but if that story ends up being vapid "go here, get that, come back to me and then I'll tell you what to do" for most of the game...then it really will have nothing to set it apart. I honestly think if this game fails there is still Arch Age, Guild Wars 2, Secret World, Blizzards next MMO, the Fallout MMO, and a rumored ES MMO to come. So please stop placing all your hope in this game and just accept it if it fails and move on. No need to get hung up on a game.
I'm sorry, people are sometimes really retarded.... and it bothers me. OP, you bother me because you are being way too over-dramatic about the situation. If this game fails it fails, end of story. It's just a game, there's nothing genre defining about it besides the plethora of story options that it supposedly has, but if that story ends up being vapid "go here, get that, come back to me and then I'll tell you what to do" for most of the game...then it really will have nothing to set it apart. I honestly think if this game fails there is still Arch Age, Guild Wars 2, Secret World, Blizzards next MMO, the Fallout MMO, and a rumored ES MMO to come. So please stop placing all your hope in this game and just accept it if it fails and move on. No need to get hung up on a game.
While I do think the OP is being over dramatic I also think you are understating the potential impact . I can promise you that SWTOR is NOT just a game to the investors that pumped 80 million + into it. ArchAge, GW2, and TSW have not way to garner the massive potential of players as a Star Wars game made by Bioware. I will play GW2 and TSW but they are not going to grow the overall MMO business segment nearly as much as the potential that SWTOR could.
While GW2 is doing what appears to be some innovative things those only matter to those of us who are avid MMO players, which is insignificant to the powers of the force. I will go out on a limb in saying, in my opinion, ArchAge won't even end up a blip on the radar in this regards.
It will be another Rift, Warhammer, Aion. The only game that has a chance is GW2. Star Wars: The Old Republic is just WoW with a different dress on.
I have to disagree in the largest manner possible.
This is so far from Aion, rift, war.. any of them...
The Old republic series, and the Star Wars IP has one of the biggest fanbase of any IP, bigger then any of those games for those that were based off established IPs.
I think the market does hing on this... based off the points i made, if you can't see that then atleast provide some counter issues.
Wrong, just because a very well known fanbase is backing a game doesn't make it a good one.
Tommy Boy
Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of shit. That's all it is, isn't it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer's sake, for your daughter's sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me.
Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.
The key issue with Mmorpgs is they have to have a return on there investments. For Swtor to succed it has to have a substantial population at the release and maintain it for quite a long time. WoW actually was profitable far before there first million subs because its initial investment was relatively small compared to swtor. What a flop of Swtor would do is dilute the investor pool. Fewer investors would be willing to help startups. This will have a impact on the genre, not end it.
As for ArchAge, its really focusing on the Asian markets at release so I am not really willing to say what there potential is. XL Games, Tencent and Gigamedia are going to open up some substantial markets which tell now were only partially tapped by games NCsoft released. I suspect it will get numbers similar to Lineage 2 and maintain them. Far more then enough profit to be considered successful. As for the Euro-American Markets, I havent got a clue.
The key issue with Mmorpgs is they have to have a return on there investments. For Swtor to succed it has to have a substantial population at the release and maintain it for quite a long time. WoW actually was profitable far before there first million subs because its initial investment was relatively small compared to swtor. What a flop of Swtor would do is dilute the investor pool. Fewer investors would be willing to help startups. This will have a impact on the genre, not end it.
As for ArchAge, its really focusing on the Asian markets at release so I am not really willing to say what there potential is. XL Games, Tencent and Gigamedia are going to open up some substantial markets which tell now were only partially tapped by games NCsoft released. I suspect it will get numbers similar to Lineage 2 and maintain them. Far more then enough profit to be considered successful. As for the Euro-American Markets, I havent got a clue.
I read WOW cost like 63 million to make not sure that is that far of a cry from 80 million with inflation tacked on.
I’m not sure if this issue has been addressed, so I’m a throw a line into this lake of thought, and see what it reels in.
On a wide-spread acceptance level, WoW is the only real MMO universally accepted by the bulk of the industry, whether it be consumers, (Casual/Hardcore, PvP/PvE), Critics, Elitists, Haters, Fanboys, ect –
It has become the standard, to many’s dismay – it brought the genre out of a closet that only the most revered of us nerds knew of, to a game that even the most prominent members of society par-take in endless hours of play.
Has anyone asked the really, really.. really… hard question?
What if that was a fluke?
I have been fan of this genre longer then most, my first MMO being EQ back in the last 90s.
I was hyped for WoW mostly for one reason, I played the Warcraft IP RTS games and the notion of being the unit on the ground that I once controlled hundreds of, and visiting places I wage an epic war about was intriguing, so I followed the game’s development closely – I remember reading the articles, the reviews, the critics, the haters, the flamers, the fans, the testers, the developers, I soaked it all in like a sponge.. I was hyped.
The game was an epic success…
Since then there has only been one game to show the same pre-launch pattern, SWTORO, what I’ve been reading, from hype (whether it be empty or legit), to those who have played it and shared their thoughts, reviews, everything it reminds be of the atmosphere that existed prior to WoWs launch. It makes me giddy, hopeful, and most of all concerned for the future of the MMORPG as a Genre.
This game has all the right conditions for a perfect MMO Storm (Like WoW before it), the recipe matches… everything.. the hype, the potential, even what issues the haters are trolling about.. it’s all in the right spot for a success…so…WHAT IF IT FAILS TOO?
Then that’s it… I think that developers are going to abandon the MMORPG, maybe not all at once or in a whole, but.. lets face a few facts :
Recipe for Success (MMORPG)
Take 1 well established franchise (Warcraft, Star Wars) \ Star Wars being the most famous of IPs in the civilized markets
Add marketable game design marinated with superfluous hype, and hate balance.
Add a reputable gaming company (Blizzard, BioWare), BioWare being arguably one of the best RPG producing company.
Mix in a large production, and marketing budget ( 63M for WoW \ 80M [Maybe more?])
Add all the ingredients, and bake til the market is desperately begging for a decent MMO.
Serve at a reasonable price, best kept updated – Makes 1-20 million servings.
So if the recipe for success produces failure, then one must conclude that the MMORPG as a dish is no longer a dish people want to eat….
This is the last chance for the MMORPG to prove that WoW wasn’t a fluke, that the market is still a viable mechanism in today’s entertainment industry, we are dangerously close to becoming a closent genre again, let’s not become the Sim Genre of the next millennium.
Utter bollocks.
I could spend an hour picking this to pieces line by line, but whats the point....things have moved on a LOT since WoW released....especially for WoW itself.
Expresso gave me a Hearthstone beta key.....I'm so happy
So if a new fast food restaraunt that offers all the usual fast food things fails, all future fast food restaraunts will fail? Do you see how silly your logic is OP?
If anything, TOR's failure will help the industry because there will be more mmo players looking for a new game. It might also spur creativity within the industry to break from the 'formula' and try something new.
iI this game is the genre's last hope then it's already dead for me. I'm not even interested in this game. I think I'll give GW2 a try anyways.
And since you are so important if you are not interested that must be the end all be all of it.
Anyone hoping this game will fail so it will usher in games that they like will be very disappointed when their games still are not the focus because investors understand why they are not viable.
Kyleran: "Now there's the real trick, learning to accept and enjoy a game for what
it offers rather than pass on what might be a great playing experience
because it lacks a few features you prefer."
John Henry Newman: "A man would do nothing if he waited until he could do it so well that no one could find fault."
FreddyNoNose: "A good game needs no defense; a bad game has no defense." "Easily digested content is just as easily forgotten."
LacedOpium: "So the question that begs to be asked is, if you are not interested in
the game mechanics that define the MMORPG genre, then why are you
playing an MMORPG?"
Comments
I totally disagree with that. While there is always a drop off after the initial surge with the many hundreds of hours of personal stories, plus flashpoints and a desire to see and play end game (8 and 16 man raids, Legacy system, etc) it will have staying power for the average player of a LOT longer.
Also, if SWTOR fails on a business level the OP is close to the mark. All publishers eyes are on TOR (NOt GW2 even though I can't wait to play that either). IF BIoware+ Star Wars+ 83 million dollars and some 6 years of development can't create a hit only a fool would think that won't have a MAJOR hit on the MMO industry and forever change the face of how other companies view and pursue the development of these games. It is simple economics. It WILL NOT result in people developing Niche Sandbox MMOs either as some might wish for.
GW2 is a non-factor here. It will not have even remotely close to the draw and appeal of the general public that a TOR will have as it is drawing off the massive fan base of Star Wars, the creators of Dragon Age and Mass Effect, and with the EA marketing team behind it. In my personal circles I see evidence of this. Friends who have never wanted to touch an MMO have actually pre-ordered TOR. I think GW2 will be outstanding by what I have seen but the appeal is mostly for the MMO community and the GW fans.
Lastly, any one who says TOR is sci-fi WOW reskinned either has sandbox blinders of hate on or has not followed the development of the game. This is a sad, tired old statement.
It is so misguided to say if game X fails, then industry Y is doomed.
You can't predict the fate of an entire industry based on the success of a single product. You have to look at the industry as a whole. For example, if SWTOR fails, but the MMORPG industry continues to grow because of other games, then the industry obviously did not fail. This is especially true for an industry where there are soooo many competitors, like the MMORPG industry.
It's like saying that if Crest fails then toothpaste is doomed. No...everyone will just buy Colgate!
For a real example of an industry failing (or at least declining), look at music games. Music games (Guitar Hero, Rock Band, etc.) used to be EXTREMELY popular. But then people just started to lose interest around Guitar Hero World Tour and when Rock Band 3 came out, it sold a paltry number of copies despite having major innovations and receiving extremely positive reviews.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
This is very true.
Who can remember when MMO's could boast of having 500k subscribers? it was no mean feat back then.
When the next MMO came along the old MMO lost a few but new players came onto the scene due to better advertising and the genre becoming more widely known, so subs started to drop to about 200k to 300k per MMO, still turning in a profit and each MMO boasting a healthy population.
Then the dark clouds came rolling over the hills and we had WoW, all of sudden every MMO out there turned into a ghost ship, WoW turned into the blackhole of MMO's, sucking in everything and when you tried to escape to a new MMO you found an irresistable pull back to WoW after a month or 2.
Inexplicable as it is, this shallow, content sparse game has a strong hold on alot of players, sure they move about abit, trying out new MMO's, trying to escape WoW, but when your guild friends remain behind and start clearing bosses you haven't seen yet, and when the loot you've been crazing for starts to go spare on the ground, then your new found loyalties get tested to the extreme, you know you shouldn't go back, you know the game your playing is a breath of fresh air and that in all honesty you are enjoying it, but that urge to head back because you think your missing something is too strong.
Before WoW came out, moving from 1 MMO to the next was a done deal, 9 times out a 10 you stayed put, for at least a year, but WoW really has thrown a spanner in the works, because of the commitment so many ppl have ploughed into the game.
I have gone without heading back to wow for over a year now, I feel the better for it, however I am in MMO limbo, bouncing from 1 old MMO to the next, never settling, never able to find a suitable new home, I also blame in part SWTOR for my troubles, I want to settle down in an MMO but I don't want to get comfortable knowing that I'l uproot once SWTOR goes live.
So yes it's true SWTOR will lost 50% of it's player base after about a month or 2, but you know it's only the WoW crowd on a "Break" from their main addiction, the rest are keepers though and hopefully as word spreads how "Potentially" good SWTOR really is we may see a new crowd of MMO players move into the genre, just as they did for WoW, and so the whole process will repeat itself years down the line, when SWTOR becomes the new blackhole of MMO gaming.
ALL IS LOST!
lol.
This game is anything but ground-breaking. It's same old.
Better hope for Guild Wars 2 or ArcheAge to deliver. Beyond those two, there's nothing in the near (2-4 years) future...
NEW IDEAS that can refresh the STALE state of MMORPGs
I think what the OP means is that the genre will lose funding, because if SWTOR fails, most investors will no longer be interested in the MMORPG genre. You see, most investors want an investment that guarantees a return.
SWTOR represents, possibly to our knowledge, the best conditions the genre can give. Star Wars is one of the largest IP's, spanning, books, toys, video games, board games, movies, and TV shows. The IP is way more popular than the Warcraft IP. The genre has also been stagnant for several years now. Also, Bioware is probably one of the most revered RPG developers. Combine that with the largest budget for a MMORPG ever, investors are probably looking at SWTOR's release with a lot of interest. If SWTOR succeeds, as the OP said, then WoW wasn't a fluke and the genre is still worth investing in. If SWTOR fails, then investors will think that the genre is too risky for an investment. After all, what hope can other developers have in succeeding if arguably the best RPG developer with a successful history of making RPG games, with the size of the budget they have, and the size of the IP's fanbase failed?
There are many people responding to the OP without actually considering the implications of what I've said, and instead seem to be thrashing the OP in some hopes of gaining rep with other MMORPG.COM posters.
Edit: I almost forgot. If a game that has one of the best RPG developers making it, the largest budget afforded to it, and possibly one of the largest IP's ever thought of being made into a MMO fails, do you think investors will be more likely or less likely to invest in MMORPG's.
If you think they'll be less likely, which I think is the logical conclusion, don't you agree that the genre will see less AAA well polished MMORPG's made, and instead if any, will only see Indy games made? That's what I think will happen, but that doesn't exactly mean that's a bad thing. I did like the genre more when it was smaller and the community only consisted of players who liked gaming (ie. likes to think ), liked socializing in that game, and preferred to work with other players than play alone.
I'm just going to say this isn't the first game to have such hype and everytime people call the end to the genre if this "one game fails" but in honest you don't need to have a WoW base of success. There are plenty of games that haven't failed for if they "failed" they wouldn't even be a company. This game looks good and promising but its hardly the last hope and mmos aren't going away anytime soon IMO. Wow is huge but just because a game have 3 servers of dedicated players doesn't mean it failed and in fact i usually like games with smaller communities and are not "the wow killer" that everyone has been calling for for years now. Most game that "fail" tend to be way funner more interactive and much better communities and if there still around 5-10 years later then the game was not a fail they still made money off the game if they kept it running that long. If you go over to GW2 side someone over there is probably saying similar things and same with rift and honestly countless games before all that. I read alot more and i don't post often but this is the 10000 thread i seen with the same idea since i been a member. I believe this game will suceed in at least having a loyal fanbase after the hype even if its not 12 million or w/e WoW claims to have these days. I hope for the game to be good and suceed and i believe it will and ofcourse when its released people WILL be disappointed and some will love it. And you can't blame a company for trying to make money thats what there suppose to do otherwise these games wouldn't even exist.
And remember its not just that "in the old days games were so much better" its the times you had on those games that made them magical as well and sometimes there are never obtainable again. I'm sure the younger generation that started with WoW will be saying the same thing 10 years from now too its just life. I personally think theres lots of good game out there that i have enjoyed and atleast got a couple of months out of to say if its not WoW then it failed. My opinion i just wanted to say the genre not going anywhere there will always be people wanting to play MMO because single player games as fun as some are just get plain lonely and if this is the Armagedon that every claims it to be then why is the genre bigger then it ever was. Playing games is becoming normal not just the nerds and the geeks anymore. Just my opinion i don't think this game will decide the MMO market or not and WoW's not a fluke, a fluke does not last that long, blizzard just knows how to make great games even if i didn't like it doesn't mean its not good.
BTW investors are still getting a return and making plenty of money its the actual game developers that work slave hours for free even sometimes to just make a name for them selves. In short to all this just because they don't have 12mil subscribers doesn't mean they didn't make money at all otherwise this genre would have dies years ago except for WoW.
Yet you are doing the same thing.
Yeah you hit the nail right on the head, if this game fails in some sense to it's investors then expect that more money may be shifted towards development on games that don't follow a strictly themepark development but this games failure couldn't really doom such a fragmented market as mmorpg's.
yws it will it has a different crafting system all voiced and more tell me which mmo has a character that can talk and the crafting system this game has tell me none :P. your just saying that because you never touched the game play it first then respond back to me hater.
.....
Sorry OP, I think you're delusional.
How is SWTOR, litterally an exact same copy of WoW with different character skins and world environment skins something epic?
I don't even understand how you come up with your delusional conclusion that SWTOR is an epic storm approaching.
Furthermore, where do you get this assumption that, since it has the same hype following as WoW, it will be anything promissing with potential?
If it is everything WoW is, and nothing it isn't (which it is), all it's going to do is take a good chunk of subscribers from WoW. That is ALL.
Don't boldly assume majority of people have the same opinion as you do on WoW. As for me personally, I quit the game because battlegrounds made me wonder what the merit was in doing it, and it killed World PvP. Then every damn patch Blizzard implements it caters to impatient whiners who desire instant gratification. I still have few friends playing WoW getting on and off every new update, but that's only because they have nothing better to get back to besides playing AOS like LOL or HON.
And I don't know how many years you've played MMOs in your life, all WoW did was rip-off every successful bits of other MMOs and just made them better or similar.
WoW certainly ripped off EQ, AC2, DAOC hardcore, minus the fact that blizzard failed miserably in trying to immitate DAOC RvR.
SWTOR is just going to be another WoW with same mechanics and mythos of similar calibur. If combat in SWTOR proves to be equal or on par with WoW, it will take a good chunk from the current WoW players, because they've been getting tired of WoW for a long ass time.
If anything, SWTOR might become successful, but with nothing truely revolutionary, it will just even out the subs between WoW. There's no way in hell it's going to have 11mil subs, nor is WoW going to be maintain similar numbers for long.
GRIND sucks? You wanna be max level in a month?
Since when did society award easy-goers and lazy-fools?
MAKES ME PHOBIC OF STUPIDITY!
Yeah, they call those single player console games. SWTOR is not likely to fail but should it happen don't go expecting companies to go running out to make the Sandbox game you or others might be looking for We all know the track record for more current Sandbox MMOs. They either fail or are purely a niche for hardcore PVP players. Those resources will shift to a more stable and predictible area of the gaming market.
I will say this again but if Bioware doing a Star Wars MMO with an 80+ million dollar budget and 5-6 years of development fails (on a business level, not the individual player level) you live in wonderland if you think that would not have a major negative impact on the MMO market. Publishers will not want to invest any significant dollars into this space any more.
Don't go counting GW2 in the mix either. It will not have the fan base (GW2 will cater to existing MMO players and GW players) to do what TOR is potentially capable of. Plus, it has a completely different model. I am really looking forward to GW2 as well but am realisitic about its actualy impact on the market.
Sorry Divion but I am going to have to disagree with you. And yes I too have been playing mmorpgs for a long time(since Ultima Online). Games come and go. It is ridiculous to state that the fate of a genre rest on one game. Someday a game will come along that hooks people more then WoW. Maybe it will be SWtoR, maybe not. But that day will come.
Besides there is plenty of room in this genre for more then one big game. The gaming industry is not an all or nothing deal. It does not work that way. No one game will suit everyone. People like variety and choices.
Your sarcasm hit the nail on the head; that is exactly where the money is starting to go. It is more profitable to spend a small amount of money to make a mobile or facebook game and have it get medium returns than to produce an expensive AAA MMO and then have it flop. And flop is all that MMOs have done since WoW.
Google has bought SocialDeck, Zynga has bought out many even smaller companies, even RIM has bought itself Scoreloop. Yeah, as someone pointed out "cough" there are 6 million MMO players in the US; but there are 70 million smartphone users and 64% (http://www.androidauthority.com/smartphone-users-play-games-more-than-listen-to-music-or-read-news-18756/) of them buy games. Which market do you think developers will spend money to go after? cough
Heh I'm no sandbox gamer I enjoy gaming in general and sandbox gaming is secondary in entertainment value to themeparks for me I play themeparks for fun and sandboxes for time sinks and I doubt that anyone anytime soon would spend 80 million on a sandbox (and to be honest I don't look forward to the day since I think the sandbox crowd is to picky).
What I do believe is this games failure will not stop investors from spending upwards of 80 million in the mmorpg industry we just may not see a game with that big of a development budget and as an extension I expect the pie to be spread around more equally.
I'm sorry, people are sometimes really retarded.... and it bothers me. OP, you bother me because you are being way too over-dramatic about the situation. If this game fails it fails, end of story. It's just a game, there's nothing genre defining about it besides the plethora of story options that it supposedly has, but if that story ends up being vapid "go here, get that, come back to me and then I'll tell you what to do" for most of the game...then it really will have nothing to set it apart. I honestly think if this game fails there is still Arch Age, Guild Wars 2, Secret World, Blizzards next MMO, the Fallout MMO, and a rumored ES MMO to come. So please stop placing all your hope in this game and just accept it if it fails and move on. No need to get hung up on a game.
While I do think the OP is being over dramatic I also think you are understating the potential impact . I can promise you that SWTOR is NOT just a game to the investors that pumped 80 million + into it. ArchAge, GW2, and TSW have not way to garner the massive potential of players as a Star Wars game made by Bioware. I will play GW2 and TSW but they are not going to grow the overall MMO business segment nearly as much as the potential that SWTOR could.
While GW2 is doing what appears to be some innovative things those only matter to those of us who are avid MMO players, which is insignificant to the powers of the force. I will go out on a limb in saying, in my opinion, ArchAge won't even end up a blip on the radar in this regards.
Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.
The key issue with Mmorpgs is they have to have a return on there investments. For Swtor to succed it has to have a substantial population at the release and maintain it for quite a long time. WoW actually was profitable far before there first million subs because its initial investment was relatively small compared to swtor. What a flop of Swtor would do is dilute the investor pool. Fewer investors would be willing to help startups. This will have a impact on the genre, not end it.
As for ArchAge, its really focusing on the Asian markets at release so I am not really willing to say what there potential is. XL Games, Tencent and Gigamedia are going to open up some substantial markets which tell now were only partially tapped by games NCsoft released. I suspect it will get numbers similar to Lineage 2 and maintain them. Far more then enough profit to be considered successful. As for the Euro-American Markets, I havent got a clue.
I read WOW cost like 63 million to make not sure that is that far of a cry from 80 million with inflation tacked on.
Utter bollocks.
I could spend an hour picking this to pieces line by line, but whats the point....things have moved on a LOT since WoW released....especially for WoW itself.
Expresso gave me a Hearthstone beta key.....I'm so happy
So if a new fast food restaraunt that offers all the usual fast food things fails, all future fast food restaraunts will fail? Do you see how silly your logic is OP?
If anything, TOR's failure will help the industry because there will be more mmo players looking for a new game. It might also spur creativity within the industry to break from the 'formula' and try something new.
iI this game is the genre's last hope then it's already dead for me. I'm not even interested in this game. I think I'll give GW2 a try anyways.
My theme song.
And since you are so important if you are not interested that must be the end all be all of it.
Anyone hoping this game will fail so it will usher in games that they like will be very disappointed when their games still are not the focus because investors understand why they are not viable.
Epic Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAigCvelkhQ&list=PLo9FRw1AkDuQLEz7Gvvaz3ideB2NpFtT1
https://archive.org/details/softwarelibrary_msdos?&sort=-downloads&page=1
Kyleran: "Now there's the real trick, learning to accept and enjoy a game for what it offers rather than pass on what might be a great playing experience because it lacks a few features you prefer."
John Henry Newman: "A man would do nothing if he waited until he could do it so well that no one could find fault."
FreddyNoNose: "A good game needs no defense; a bad game has no defense." "Easily digested content is just as easily forgotten."
LacedOpium: "So the question that begs to be asked is, if you are not interested in the game mechanics that define the MMORPG genre, then why are you playing an MMORPG?"
lol. I guess GW2 had better how SWTOR makes it or Pklanetside 2 or any others that are blindly following along.
I self identify as a monkey.