I don't believe the whole it isn't Christmas anymore so less people will be playing thing. Other game populations don't decline just because it isn't Christmas, if it wasn't declining you'd see the population going up and down in waves like Steam. They haven't even started charging yet either so after the 20th I expect it to drop even more.
Where's the statistics for these graphs coming from? Please provide links of your proof.
Its a smilar site to riftstatus.net. There are two things we don't know: what are the threshholds for the different server levels, and how much have they changed? I know my shard went from very heavy/full to standard/heavy overnight and didnt notice any population drop so Im betting the caps were shuffled a little at some point, probably just added some more capacity to the server to remove/reduce queues.
By now the population should be down 20-30% logically, but its tough to tell with how spread out the level ranges still are.
The only real thing this measures is hours played, or concurrency peaks). When you combine all the anecdotal factors like xfire's user rate, player reviews from sites like metacritic, amazon, and even a sample poll on SWTOR itself. Then put that with game sales, it does suggest a downward trend overall. Increasing server caps could not have had much impact on total results because when it was done, there was no substantial changes in the data back in week 51/52. Not to mention, they never actually stated an increase in caps, but a "tuning" and increasing the servers effects to "11" whatever that means.
the most interesting thing to watch will be the data from Jan 21-Feb 1. Those ten days will be a good sample.
Actually, no, they won't. Usage of any game-use program (X-fire, Raptr, etc...) is only useful for showing trends WITHIN each respective game-use program. It has no validity outside of those programs. It also does not show the cause of any increase or decrease of hours what-so-ever.
Actually they will. because we are talking about all the factors including swtorarena usage. Unless BW does something to disguise their usage with some hokey "we changed our servers" intervention. The data will be there to view if you look for it. Any significant change proves trends quite easily and will be hard to excuse away with a holidays are over excuse. Or they might not change and disprove all the "the game is dead" wishers. Try to seperate your emotions from logic, it's just a freaking game for goodness sake.
This thread is absolutely rediculous. I mean really guys.
I actually enjoy ToR quite a lot, but this attempt by other fans to validate how awesome ToR is has gone on for absolutely no reason. Reviewers are often hard to believe, with many cases of giving games passes for things they should not.
Perfect example?
Here is Metacritic for SWTOR: (Note, it shows all 35 positive reveiws)
My point is, parading all these things around to prove how good it is does NOTHING to prove how good it is. Game reviews today are a joke.
Just play and enjoy the game.
+1 to you. Also it is a long standing tradition to pay off reviewers to either artificially inflate their scores of a game or simply put out entirely false reviews as another method of advertising the game. It's like those surveys you get on a reciept from a store chain. They want to inflate their perception of the public for the shareholders. Haven't any of you heard of or heard from reviewers who are layed off or fired from review sites and magazines for not giving a game an inflated score? Happens alllllllllllllllll the time. Just part of the industry. Take all reviews with a grain of salt. The best reviewer is YOU! .... and free trials. cause no one likes to spend money just to see if they like something.
I don't believe the whole it isn't Christmas anymore so less people will be playing thing. Other game populations don't decline just because it isn't Christmas, if it wasn't declining you'd see the population going up and down in waves like Steam. They haven't even started charging yet either so after the 20th I expect it to drop even more.
Where's the statistics for these graphs coming from? Please provide links of your proof.
Its a smilar site to riftstatus.net. There are two things we don't know: what are the threshholds for the different server levels, and how much have they changed? I know my shard went from very heavy/full to standard/heavy overnight and didnt notice any population drop so Im betting the caps were shuffled a little at some point, probably just added some more capacity to the server to remove/reduce queues.
By now the population should be down 20-30% logically, but its tough to tell with how spread out the level ranges still are.
The only real thing this measures is hours played, or concurrency peaks). When you combine all the anecdotal factors like xfire's user rate, player reviews from sites like metacritic, amazon, and even a sample poll on SWTOR itself. Then put that with game sales, it does suggest a downward trend overall. Increasing server caps could not have had much impact on total results because when it was done, there was no substantial changes in the data back in week 51/52. Not to mention, they never actually stated an increase in caps, but a "tuning" and increasing the servers effects to "11" whatever that means.
the most interesting thing to watch will be the data from Jan 21-Feb 1. Those ten days will be a good sample.
Actually, no, they won't. Usage of any game-use program (X-fire, Raptr, etc...) is only useful for showing trends WITHIN each respective game-use program. It has no validity outside of those programs. It also does not show the cause of any increase or decrease of hours what-so-ever.
Actually they will. because we are talking about all the factors including swtorarena usage. Unless BW does something to disguise their usage with some hokey "we changed our servers" intervention. The data will be there to view if you look for it. Any significant change proves trends quite easily and will be hard to excuse away with a holidays are over excuse. Or they might not change and disprove all the "the game is dead" wishers. Try to seperate your emotions from logic, it's just a freaking game for goodness sake.
So much false information:
swtorarena usage is suspect at best. Especially since Bioware has already said that they increased the population allowance for each server. And, that is all that it measures... how full the servers are at any point in time. It tells nothing of the true number of people that are on each server. Thus, as I said, it's suspect at best.
You cannot describe causality with any of these statistics. To say that you can proves, without a doubt, that you have no clue as to statistical analysis.
I don't believe the whole it isn't Christmas anymore so less people will be playing thing. Other game populations don't decline just because it isn't Christmas, if it wasn't declining you'd see the population going up and down in waves like Steam. They haven't even started charging yet either so after the 20th I expect it to drop even more.
Where's the statistics for these graphs coming from? Please provide links of your proof.
Its a smilar site to riftstatus.net. There are two things we don't know: what are the threshholds for the different server levels, and how much have they changed? I know my shard went from very heavy/full to standard/heavy overnight and didnt notice any population drop so Im betting the caps were shuffled a little at some point, probably just added some more capacity to the server to remove/reduce queues.
By now the population should be down 20-30% logically, but its tough to tell with how spread out the level ranges still are.
The only real thing this measures is hours played, or concurrency peaks). When you combine all the anecdotal factors like xfire's user rate, player reviews from sites like metacritic, amazon, and even a sample poll on SWTOR itself. Then put that with game sales, it does suggest a downward trend overall. Increasing server caps could not have had much impact on total results because when it was done, there was no substantial changes in the data back in week 51/52. Not to mention, they never actually stated an increase in caps, but a "tuning" and increasing the servers effects to "11" whatever that means.
the most interesting thing to watch will be the data from Jan 21-Feb 1. Those ten days will be a good sample.
Actually, no, they won't. Usage of any game-use program (X-fire, Raptr, etc...) is only useful for showing trends WITHIN each respective game-use program. It has no validity outside of those programs. It also does not show the cause of any increase or decrease of hours what-so-ever.
Actually they will. because we are talking about all the factors including swtorarena usage. Unless BW does something to disguise their usage with some hokey "we changed our servers" intervention. The data will be there to view if you look for it. Any significant change proves trends quite easily and will be hard to excuse away with a holidays are over excuse. Or they might not change and disprove all the "the game is dead" wishers. Try to seperate your emotions from logic, it's just a freaking game for goodness sake.
So much false information:
swtorarena usage is suspect at best. Especially since Bioware has already said that they increased the population allowance for each server. And, that is all that it measures... how full the servers are at any point in time. It tells nothing of the true number of people that are on each server. Thus, as I said, it's suspect at best.
You cannot describe causality with any of these statistics. To say that you can proves, without a doubt, that you have no clue as to statistical analysis.
Sound to me like your scared of what the results are going to be. Is there somthing you aren't willing to admit to?
Sound to me like your scared of what the results are going to be. Is there somthing you aren't willing to admit to?
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.
Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
Sound to me like your scared of what the results are going to be. Is there somthing you aren't willing to admit to?
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.
Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
That's all well and dandy, but again, its the totality of trends that can't be ignored. I can take 400 randomly picked people in a country and tell with pretty good estimation just about anything you want to know regarding trends, likes, or just about anything else, with little doubt to its validity.
xfire is a large sample, skewed yes, but still large.
Metacritic and amazon, compare well with each other, again very nice samples
Swtor net, just another useful data set, incomplete but useful.
Swtor's own site giving the gamea 7 to 7.5 user review, very skewed but again supports all the other samples.
Again, is there something you would like to share that you aren't willing to admit to? I love stats, they aren't accurate, but they can tell a story with enough of them. The Jan 21- Feb 1 data will be enormous. Since this was the hardcore fanbase that preordered the game. It should be skewed in the favor of the game, yet you seem to worry about this.
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.
Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
That's all well and dandy, but again, its the totality of trends that can't be ignored. I can take 400 randomly picked people in a country and tell with pretty good estimation just about anything you want to know regarding trends, likes, or just about anything else, with little doubt to its validity.
xfire is a large sample, skewed yes, but still large.
Metacritic and amazon, compare well with each other, again very nice samples
Swtor net, just another useful data set, incomplete but useful.
Swtor's own site giving the gamea 7 to 7.5 user review, very skewed but again supports all the other samples.
Again, is there something you would like to share that you aren't willing to admit to? I love stats, they aren't accurate, but they can tell a story with enough of them. The Jan 21- Feb 1 data will be enormous. Since this was the hardcore fanbase that preordered the game. It should be skewed in the favor of the game, yet you seem to worry about this.
Except, this sample is NOT randomly picked...
As to the rest:
Are you sure X-fire is a "large" sample? It could easily be only .01% of the total gaming population. That's pathetically small. On top of it, are you sure that the X-fire sample is representative of the total gaming population? No? Didn't think so. Thus, trying to apply X-fire statistics outside of X-fire completely invalidates them.
Neither of the Amazon nor Metacritic reviewers have to actually have owned and played the game to "review" it. So, they're talking out of their asses. Thus, those are completely irrelevant as they have not played the game they are "reviewing".
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.
Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
That's all well and dandy, but again, its the totality of trends that can't be ignored. I can take 400 randomly picked people in a country and tell with pretty good estimation just about anything you want to know regarding trends, likes, or just about anything else, with little doubt to its validity.
xfire is a large sample, skewed yes, but still large.
Metacritic and amazon, compare well with each other, again very nice samples
Swtor net, just another useful data set, incomplete but useful.
Swtor's own site giving the gamea 7 to 7.5 user review, very skewed but again supports all the other samples.
Again, is there something you would like to share that you aren't willing to admit to? I love stats, they aren't accurate, but they can tell a story with enough of them. The Jan 21- Feb 1 data will be enormous. Since this was the hardcore fanbase that preordered the game. It should be skewed in the favor of the game, yet you seem to worry about this.
Except, this sample is NOT randomly picked...
As to the rest:
Are you sure X-fire is a "large" sample? It could easily be only .01% of the total gaming population. That's pathetically small. On top of it, are you sure that the X-fire sample is representative of the total gaming population? No? Didn't think so. Thus, trying to apply X-fire statistics outside of X-fire completely invalidates them.
a sample of 400 of a country of 400 million is a lot less than .01%, and its still extermely valid.
Neither of the Amazon nor Metacritic reviewers have to actually have owned and played the game to "review" it. So, they're talking out of their asses. Thus, those are completely irrelevant as they have not played the game they are "reviewing".
No it shows user activity, which is why it is useful to provide context to other claims. Yet when it either stays stable or drops dramatcially, either view will easily be seen as folly or true.
Where's these supposed "7 to 7.5 user reviews" that are on "Swtor's own site"? Please provide a link.
Yeah sorry, you will have to find that for yourself since SWTOR has disable its search engine for some reason, and I dont care enough either way. But I would sure bet you can try to disprove it if you care so much.
Also, please stop assuming about our intentions. It shows that you are grasping at straws instead of using logic.
Again, I am not questioning your intent, I am just confused as to why you seem to be afraid of something that can be either good or bad or care so much. The outcome seems to be set in your own mind. Mine awaits that thing called data before I draw a conclusion either way. Straws are for people who get emotional about things. I could care less at the result, mine is just curiosity as to marketing and trends.
Have fun, enjoy the game, but try not to dismiss logic just because of it.
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.
Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
That's all well and dandy, but again, its the totality of trends that can't be ignored. I can take 400 randomly picked people in a country and tell with pretty good estimation just about anything you want to know regarding trends, likes, or just about anything else, with little doubt to its validity.
xfire is a large sample, skewed yes, but still large.
Metacritic and amazon, compare well with each other, again very nice samples
Swtor net, just another useful data set, incomplete but useful.
Swtor's own site giving the gamea 7 to 7.5 user review, very skewed but again supports all the other samples.
Again, is there something you would like to share that you aren't willing to admit to? I love stats, they aren't accurate, but they can tell a story with enough of them. The Jan 21- Feb 1 data will be enormous. Since this was the hardcore fanbase that preordered the game. It should be skewed in the favor of the game, yet you seem to worry about this.
Except, this sample is NOT randomly picked...
As to the rest:
Are you sure X-fire is a "large" sample? It could easily be only .01% of the total gaming population. That's pathetically small. On top of it, are you sure that the X-fire sample is representative of the total gaming population? No? Didn't think so. Thus, trying to apply X-fire statistics outside of X-fire completely invalidates them.
a sample of 400 of a country of 400 million is a lot less than .01%, and its still extermely valid.
Only with sampling controls that makes the sample as demographically close to the population as possible by eliminating a vast majority of the extraneous sampling variables. That concept is taught in intro statistics.
Neither of the Amazon nor Metacritic reviewers have to actually have owned and played the game to "review" it. So, they're talking out of their asses. Thus, those are completely irrelevant as they have not played the game they are "reviewing".
No it shows user activity, which is why it is useful to provide context to other claims. Yet when it either stays stable or drops dramatcially, either view will easily be seen as folly or true.
False. It shows only how full the servers are. There's no population numbers attached to that at all.
Where's these supposed "7 to 7.5 user reviews" that are on "Swtor's own site"? Please provide a link.
Yeah sorry, you will have to find that for yourself since SWTOR has disable its search engine for some reason, and I dont care enough either way. But I would sure bet you can try to disprove it if you care so much.
7 to 7.5 seems fairly accurate from what I've read. It certainly does not portray the doom n' gloom that you are trying to portray.
Also, please stop assuming about our intentions. It shows that you are grasping at straws instead of using logic.
Again, I am not questioning your intent, I am just confused as to why you seem to be afraid of something that can be either good or bad or care so much. The outcome seems to be set in your own mind. Mine awaits that thing called data before I draw a conclusion either way. Straws are for people who get emotional about things. I could care less at the result, mine is just curiosity as to marketing and trends.
Have fun, enjoy the game, but try not to dismiss logic just because of it.
You really shouldn't contradict yourself in your own statement (highlight). Anyways, you are basing your self-serving beliefs on invalid data. That is a fact. You are using personal attacks by claiming we are apparently afraid of something. Yet, points fingers at others for being "emotional". That is a fact. And, you have proven that you are not knowledgable in statistical analysis procedures. That is a fact.
Originally posted by Bunks Sound to me like your scared of what the results are going to be. Is there somthing you aren't willing to admit to?
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.
Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
That's all well and dandy, but again, its the totality of trends that can't be ignored. I can take 400 randomly picked people in a country and tell with pretty good estimation just about anything you want to know regarding trends, likes, or just about anything else, with little doubt to its validity.
xfire is a large sample, skewed yes, but still large.
Metacritic and amazon, compare well with each other, again very nice samples
Swtor net, just another useful data set, incomplete but useful.
Swtor's own site giving the gamea 7 to 7.5 user review, very skewed but again supports all the other samples.
Again, is there something you would like to share that you aren't willing to admit to? I love stats, they aren't accurate, but they can tell a story with enough of them. The Jan 21- Feb 1 data will be enormous. Since this was the hardcore fanbase that preordered the game. It should be skewed in the favor of the game, yet you seem to worry about this.
? Why are you asking *me* that question, and why the 'again'? That was the 1st time you asked me that question, so it's kinda odd. Is there something that YOU want to share that you aren't willing to admit to? Or is this some kind of projecting, and are you worried?
I gave the explanation regarding the swtorarena charting system, I thought it was pretty clear and informative for anyone who's interested in statistics. As for the other tools, Xfire and Raptr and such, I know that there are a lot of people who're sceptic and critical about them, but for general trend estimations I find them kinda handy, actually.
I don't remember being able to romance the Hero Companion in GW and I suspect that he individual companion stories in SWToR will be continue much like other bioware games as one moves on through the game.
I'm searching to see how Aika does this as I'm not familiar with their companion system.
are we really calling the ability to romance a NPC innovative? is that the last resort here? really now?
I think what he was referring to was that the integration of Companions into the game and participation in things like quests and crafting goes a lot farther than seen in MMO's so far.
Sound to me like your scared of what the results are going to be. Is there somthing you aren't willing to admit to?
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.
Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
That's all well and dandy, but again, its the totality of trends that can't be ignored. I can take 400 randomly picked people in a country and tell with pretty good estimation just about anything you want to know regarding trends, likes, or just about anything else, with little doubt to its validity.
xfire is a large sample, skewed yes, but still large.
Metacritic and amazon, compare well with each other, again very nice samples
Swtor net, just another useful data set, incomplete but useful.
Swtor's own site giving the gamea 7 to 7.5 user review, very skewed but again supports all the other samples.
Again, is there something you would like to share that you aren't willing to admit to? I love stats, they aren't accurate, but they can tell a story with enough of them. The Jan 21- Feb 1 data will be enormous. Since this was the hardcore fanbase that preordered the game. It should be skewed in the favor of the game, yet you seem to worry about this.
? Why are you asking *me* that question, and why the 'again'? That was the 1st time you asked me that question, so it's kinda odd. Is there something that YOU want to share that you aren't willing to admit to? Or is this some kind of projecting, and are you worried?
I gave the explanation regarding the swtorarena charting system, I thought it was pretty clear and informative for anyone who's interested in statistics. As for the other tools, Xfire and Raptr and such, I know that there are a lot of people who're sceptic and critical about them, but for general trend estimations I find them kinda handy, actually.
Well the obvious reason is you quoted the question itself directed at someone else. But the original reason is becasue I mearly posted data sets, not any actual trends. So attacking a set before any results is a preemptive attack. Which btw is considered a fear response in human behavior.
[mod edit]
I'm very satisfied with what I posted prior, the data we have currently is not a complete picture, but by Feb 1st the jury will be in unless the numbers only show a small change in all of the measures. The samples provided by all of the above are more than enough to gain insight into trends either way. Yes, xfire is not random sample, but the sample is 2500% larger than the statistical requirments to provide a trend, far more than enough for any polling firm. We aren't seeking a percentage of the samepl, all we need are trends (no need for random samples, only a larger sample when there isn't one) and swtorarena will confirm or refute that as well.
I'm very satisfied with what I posted prior, the data we have currently is not a complete picture, but by Feb 1st the jury will be in unless the numbers only show a small change in all of the measures. The samples provided by all of the above are more than enough to gain insight into trends either way. Yes, xfire is not random sample, but the sample is 2500% larger than the statistical requirments to provide a trend, far more than enough for any polling firm. We aren't seeking a percentage of the samepl, all we need are trends (no need for random samples, only a larger sample when there isn't one) and swtorarena will confirm or refute that as well.
Like with any tools, they can all be useful when taken into consideration what their limitations are. That applies to all, from swtorarena to xfire to raptr to Steam to WoW census etc. The best thing will be that when actual figures are released, that the tools will reasonably reflect those figures. If it doesn't, then the tool is less dependable.
Another additional point of accuracy I find if trends are the same no matter what tool is being used. If the results are widely different, then some or all tools are off. In this way I found it remarkable that Xfire as well as Raptr as well as Steam showed the same around 10% number of player/hours that Rift now had compared to in its launch month, and that WoW showed the same decline in both Xfire as Raptr.
As for SWTOR: I found swtorarena to be off in its early trends bc of the reasons I mentioned earlier, but raptr and xfire seemed to follow eachother in trend pattern.
There was finally a mixed review. An outlet gave it a 70 and had mixed feelings. Between this and Dark Pony's thread I'm depressed now and am leaving the MMO world forever lol.
I think you could call Kotaku's review positive but it has a couple quotes that don't match the overal positive feeling, like: "At its very best playing The Old Republic is like attending the world's largest Star Wars convention, only the lightsabers actually work."
That does not make me want to play this game at all. Maybe I'm reading it wrong but that comes across as a large negative.
Comments
Actually they will. because we are talking about all the factors including swtorarena usage. Unless BW does something to disguise their usage with some hokey "we changed our servers" intervention. The data will be there to view if you look for it. Any significant change proves trends quite easily and will be hard to excuse away with a holidays are over excuse. Or they might not change and disprove all the "the game is dead" wishers. Try to seperate your emotions from logic, it's just a freaking game for goodness sake.
+1 to you. Also it is a long standing tradition to pay off reviewers to either artificially inflate their scores of a game or simply put out entirely false reviews as another method of advertising the game. It's like those surveys you get on a reciept from a store chain. They want to inflate their perception of the public for the shareholders. Haven't any of you heard of or heard from reviewers who are layed off or fired from review sites and magazines for not giving a game an inflated score? Happens alllllllllllllllll the time. Just part of the industry. Take all reviews with a grain of salt. The best reviewer is YOU! .... and free trials. cause no one likes to spend money just to see if they like something.
So much false information:
swtorarena usage is suspect at best. Especially since Bioware has already said that they increased the population allowance for each server. And, that is all that it measures... how full the servers are at any point in time. It tells nothing of the true number of people that are on each server. Thus, as I said, it's suspect at best.
You cannot describe causality with any of these statistics. To say that you can proves, without a doubt, that you have no clue as to statistical analysis.
Sound to me like your scared of what the results are going to be. Is there somthing you aren't willing to admit to?
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
That's all well and dandy, but again, its the totality of trends that can't be ignored. I can take 400 randomly picked people in a country and tell with pretty good estimation just about anything you want to know regarding trends, likes, or just about anything else, with little doubt to its validity.
xfire is a large sample, skewed yes, but still large.
Metacritic and amazon, compare well with each other, again very nice samples
Swtor net, just another useful data set, incomplete but useful.
Swtor's own site giving the gamea 7 to 7.5 user review, very skewed but again supports all the other samples.
Again, is there something you would like to share that you aren't willing to admit to? I love stats, they aren't accurate, but they can tell a story with enough of them. The Jan 21- Feb 1 data will be enormous. Since this was the hardcore fanbase that preordered the game. It should be skewed in the favor of the game, yet you seem to worry about this.
Except, this sample is NOT randomly picked...
As to the rest:
Are you sure X-fire is a "large" sample? It could easily be only .01% of the total gaming population. That's pathetically small. On top of it, are you sure that the X-fire sample is representative of the total gaming population? No? Didn't think so. Thus, trying to apply X-fire statistics outside of X-fire completely invalidates them.
Neither of the Amazon nor Metacritic reviewers have to actually have owned and played the game to "review" it. So, they're talking out of their asses. Thus, those are completely irrelevant as they have not played the game they are "reviewing".
It's SWTORARENA.com, not swtor.net. And, that's already been discussed that it is NOT showing population numbers. Hell, their own FAQ states that: http://www.swtorarena.com/topic/210-swtor-statistics-tool-faq/
Where's these supposed "7 to 7.5 user reviews" that are on "Swtor's own site"? Please provide a link.
Also, please stop assuming about our intentions. It shows that you are grasping at straws instead of using logic.
Actually, this has less to do with being 'scared' as some people might love to claim for whatever reason, but more with using your brains and deduction skills. The guy noticed something that others were already aware of as well, namely that that swtorarena chart uses the same method as a number of Rift charting sites used, namely they don't poll actual ingame player servers throughout the day on all servers, but merely inventory the server status 'full', 'heavy', 'standard' etc.
The problem with that method is, that those status categories are rough, unequal measurements. For example, in Rift you had the the status 'low' that only ranged up to 350-400 people ingame, but then a status medium that had a range of like 350-450 to 1250-1500.
And another problem is that the status changes its meaning over the course of weeks. To give a very plain example: a TOR server could have had an ingame player population of 2000 at a given peak time which gave it the status 'full' in week 1, where in week 3 that same number of 2000 people ingame only gives it the status 'heavy'.Those are the flaws of that system used, server status polling, just like Xfire, Raptr and other such tools have their own flaws as well. If those flaws are ignored, you can get funny but unrealistic conclusions, with every tool and charting system used.
That's all well and dandy, but again, its the totality of trends that can't be ignored. I can take 400 randomly picked people in a country and tell with pretty good estimation just about anything you want to know regarding trends, likes, or just about anything else, with little doubt to its validity.
xfire is a large sample, skewed yes, but still large.
Metacritic and amazon, compare well with each other, again very nice samples
Swtor net, just another useful data set, incomplete but useful.
Swtor's own site giving the gamea 7 to 7.5 user review, very skewed but again supports all the other samples.
Again, is there something you would like to share that you aren't willing to admit to? I love stats, they aren't accurate, but they can tell a story with enough of them. The Jan 21- Feb 1 data will be enormous. Since this was the hardcore fanbase that preordered the game. It should be skewed in the favor of the game, yet you seem to worry about this.
? Why are you asking *me* that question, and why the 'again'? That was the 1st time you asked me that question, so it's kinda odd. Is there something that YOU want to share that you aren't willing to admit to? Or is this some kind of projecting, and are you worried?I gave the explanation regarding the swtorarena charting system, I thought it was pretty clear and informative for anyone who's interested in statistics. As for the other tools, Xfire and Raptr and such, I know that there are a lot of people who're sceptic and critical about them, but for general trend estimations I find them kinda handy, actually.
I think "similiar" is the word here.
I don't remember being able to romance the Hero Companion in GW and I suspect that he individual companion stories in SWToR will be continue much like other bioware games as one moves on through the game.
I'm searching to see how Aika does this as I'm not familiar with their companion system.
are we really calling the ability to romance a NPC innovative? is that the last resort here? really now?
I think what he was referring to was that the integration of Companions into the game and participation in things like quests and crafting goes a lot farther than seen in MMO's so far.Well the obvious reason is you quoted the question itself directed at someone else. But the original reason is becasue I mearly posted data sets, not any actual trends. So attacking a set before any results is a preemptive attack. Which btw is considered a fear response in human behavior.
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I'm very satisfied with what I posted prior, the data we have currently is not a complete picture, but by Feb 1st the jury will be in unless the numbers only show a small change in all of the measures. The samples provided by all of the above are more than enough to gain insight into trends either way. Yes, xfire is not random sample, but the sample is 2500% larger than the statistical requirments to provide a trend, far more than enough for any polling firm. We aren't seeking a percentage of the samepl, all we need are trends (no need for random samples, only a larger sample when there isn't one) and swtorarena will confirm or refute that as well.
Like with any tools, they can all be useful when taken into consideration what their limitations are. That applies to all, from swtorarena to xfire to raptr to Steam to WoW census etc. The best thing will be that when actual figures are released, that the tools will reasonably reflect those figures. If it doesn't, then the tool is less dependable.
Another additional point of accuracy I find if trends are the same no matter what tool is being used. If the results are widely different, then some or all tools are off. In this way I found it remarkable that Xfire as well as Raptr as well as Steam showed the same around 10% number of player/hours that Rift now had compared to in its launch month, and that WoW showed the same decline in both Xfire as Raptr.
As for SWTOR: I found swtorarena to be off in its early trends bc of the reasons I mentioned earlier, but raptr and xfire seemed to follow eachother in trend pattern.There was finally a mixed review. An outlet gave it a 70 and had mixed feelings. Between this and Dark Pony's thread I'm depressed now and am leaving the MMO world forever lol.
There Is Always Hope!
whenever I see this thread on Current Forum Activity I want to kill myself:D
I think you could call Kotaku's review positive but it has a couple quotes that don't match the overal positive feeling, like: "At its very best playing The Old Republic is like attending the world's largest Star Wars convention, only the lightsabers actually work."
That does not make me want to play this game at all. Maybe I'm reading it wrong but that comes across as a large negative.