SWTOR will finally be the death of WoW clones

RefMinor

Originally posted by hikaru77

1.7 mill of subs and is dying, Interesting. Lot of poeple is just waiting for the 1.2 update, even to play or level alts, is just better to wait till the next update, is even pointless to grind for the battlemaster gear, champion etc. SWTOR is an huge success, 4 months after launch and they still have 1.7 mill of subs and like it or not, the population will grow after the 1.2 update. Im sorry but you are just wrong. 

 

No one believes they have 1.7m subscribers, they had 1.7m subscribers at the end of financial Q3 ie. Dec 31st 2011 when people were locked into the free month. EA have made no statement on the numbers since then and I wouldn't expect them to until the financial year end results are announced to shareholders sometime next month. We have had several washy washy statements quoting the 1.7m subscribers and talking in generalised terms around that. All anecdotal evidence points to falling subscriber numbers, the only question is over how far.

sekira

Originally posted by Nevulus

Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

It took WoW over a year to get to 1 million subscribers

But the strong point of WoW is that not many subscribers cancelled in those early days.

Exactly. Lord Bachus nailed it.

It's obvious the OP didn't play WoW at launch, and has no idea what MMOs were like before his first MMO: WOW BC.

MMO gamers werent as fickle and overly dramatic as they are now. 

 

The original OP's "fact" on WoW subs at launch are completely false and discredits his entire post. Safe to assume this is a troll post, the title alone says it all.

 

[mod edit]

WoW had 1.5 million subscribers only 4 months after release, and 3.5 million worldwide subscribers after 9 months. This is considered common knowledge do your research next time.

http://www.gamershell.com/companies/blizzard_entertainment/219363.html

http://news.softpedia.com/news/World-of-Warcraft-Has-2-million-Subscribers-3220.shtml

http://wowvault.ign.com/View.php?view=Columns.Detail&id=101

These numbers match pretty closely to what is shown on mmodata.net

http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-1.png

Edit: I see someone slightly beat me to posting these links

musicmann

This is something i posted in another thread and i believe it works for this topic as well.

 

It's funny to think that Bioware had all this money and took the easiest of routes. There's a reason that so many leave WOW for the newest mmo that comes out only to go back within the first month or so. It's not because poeple aren't tired of WOW, it's because it's the last of the mmo's to come out that still has a open game world feeling to it. These new games come out like STO, WAR, AOC, RIFT, TOR and promise the world and the same thing happens everytime. There's a leak from beta and it tells of how the game is very linear and on rails. The game world is nothing more than a path to the next quest hub even though it's looks very good.

Then more and more of the game comes out and you have the bashers and the fans going back and forth about the game and it's systems. The bashers see the flaws and the fans are so excited they turn a blind eye to the truth. The game release's with fanfare and sales are high and the fans tell the bashers, see you were wrong. Then about a month in, the flaws and what was said by the beta testers seem to be true. The fans think, no way, this can't be true, this was supposed to be the game that change's the genre and the way mmo's will be made.

Then what you have is the massive flock of people that decide that what they were sold was not good or even ok. It was crap wrapped in a pretty box and decides that the only mmo that is worth going back to is WOW, and goes back, just in time for a new expansion. They can go back and level up that new race and explore that new region and do the whole thing over when a new mmo comes out.

The reason why this happens and now has become the standard in this genre, is because, the dev companies can't get it through their thick fucking skulls that mmo players in my opinion don't want a on the rails game world with nothing but combat to do 24-7. they want a open alive world where exploration actually means something and not just a pretty map with an X that tells you to go there. They want social tools that builds a strong community and open world pvp that happens anywhere and everywhere. Hey, devs, make a real freaking mmorpg that when you think it is full featured you add a shit more to even that and you will then have created something worth the sub price.

KenFisher

So fantasy themepark, quest-progression, tab-targeted button mashing combat MMOs with instanced dungeons, instanced PVP, and gear progression raiding endgame is dead.

 

Allowing for slight deviations, that's 85% (if not more) of the current market.

Arathir86

I saw the topic and came to disagree respectfully, I then read the OP, and have come to agree.

 

Also, I offer a /facepalm to developers who try to copy success from another game, slap on some make up, and call it innovative.

sekira

Originally posted by arctarus

For a 1.7mil sub, tor is earning profit and pretty successful in the after wow era.



however if you wana talk about developers will stop producing themepark mmo because tor didn't achieve 5mil subs, than Im afraid to tell you, it won't happen.



every developers believe that the feature they bring in will be successful, war - rvr, aoc, Tera -combat system, rift -rift, tor -stories, gw2 - dynamic events ....



they will continue to have themeparks mmo because every developers believe their game will offer just that enough different and yet familiar formular that players that's tired of wow and other game will come over and make their game their new home. Couple with other new players to mmo they.will always believe they will have millions of subs. Themepark mmo will never disappear as long as wow continue to command millions of subs. It will only die when wow dies ...

 

Earning profit eh? It's way too early for them to be earning any sort of of profit .

If the playerbase declines from where it is supposedly right now at 1.7 mil subs... how long until they break even after investing 200 million or more?

 

Rhianni32

I think I have the next big thing in MMOs. I'll call it....

"World of Trying-to-make-others-feel-bad-about-their-MMO-choice-to-make-myself-feel-better-as-a-human-being"

I'll make millions!

Zekiah

Originally posted by Puremallace

Originally posted by Zekiah

WoW clones are NOT going to die until gamers stop paying for them.

They design these games for quick box sales people, anything else is just gravy.

We are just now getting games like Archage. Gw2 honestly does not ahve shit on that game to be truthful. GW2 looks highly scripted and not dynamic at all while Archage is where I think the genre really needs to head. It falls on the devs and the players.

 

I mean watch when GW2 launches and see what the playerbase request and tell me if it is not a crap ton of features you see from WoW. Are there even rated Arenas in GW2? This is supposed to be the greatest pvp mmorpg ever made and I only ehar people talk about WvWvW?

Oh I agree although GW2 well sell a TON of copies. I decided not to get it after grinding in GW1 in preparation for GW2. It's just my kind of game.

ArcheAge looks insane, the sheer amount of content and systems in that game are staggering. Let's just hope we see someone sign them soon, can't believe they haven't already. But then again, it's about the park these days. Whatever.

Kakkzooka

Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

It took WoW over a year to get to 1 million subscribers

But the strong point of WoW is that not many subscribers cancelled in those early days.

It took WoW only four months to attain 1.5 million subscribers.

Nadia

Originally posted by sekira

Earning profit eh? It's way too early for them to be earning any sort of of profit .

If they playerbase declines from where it is supposedly right now at 1.7 mil subs... how long until they break even after investing 200 million or more?

I personally have no clue how the numbers work

but EA said they only need 500k subs to see profit

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea-6297338

Rhianni32

Originally posted by angerbeaver

I doubt it. WoW will still generate cash and other developpers will say to themselves "we will just make it less buggy than SWTOR was and we'll be fine."

People tend to forget failures over time it seems and they do not learn their lessons in this industry.

Thats probably what is going to happen. How many other wow clones tried and failed yet new companies still try.

They will see what WoW did. See how SWTOR deviated and then try to "innovate".

Bunks

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by sekira

Earning profit eh? It's way too early for them to be earning any sort of of profit .

If they playerbase declines from where it is supposedly right now at 1.7 mil subs... how long until they break even after investing 200 million or more?

I personally have no clue how the numbers work

but EA said they only need 500k subs to see profit

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea-6297338

That was Feb 2011

This is what they said in Feb 2012 -

What I basically said is 0.5 million subs, we could break even at the margin. 1 million subs would be

meaningfully profitable, but nothing to write home about. - Ritticello EA CEO

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1620647435x0x540332/dab48832-e802-4c78-9fe8-91a3bd6180a2/ERTS_Q3FY12_Transcript.pdf

Rhianni32

Originally posted by Nadia

Originally posted by sekira

Earning profit eh? It's way too early for them to be earning any sort of of profit .

If they playerbase declines from where it is supposedly right now at 1.7 mil subs... how long until they break even after investing 200 million or more?

I personally have no clue how the numbers work

but EA said they only need 500k subs to see profit

http://www.gamespot.com/news/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea-6297338

I think there is a key point here that many miss.

I do not think developers are trying to necessarily trying to duplicate WoW as far as 10 million accounts. As much as we joke and insinuate that they are stupid they are probably very smart.

They just need to make a game that

1: pays for itself as far as production/start up costs goes.

2: Lay off 90% of staff to save on cost and establish a hard core following of players that pretty much no matter what will always stay. We have people still playing EQ and until recently paying a sub. Would we say that EQ was a failure for not hitting 10 million users? They profit margin for them is probably incredible. DAOC as well and they havent had an expansion for several years now I think.

we as players measure success in terms of number of players as if a game having 100 servers, 99 of which will never impact you r character, is somehow better then one with 10 servers. If both produce content and updates then is there a difference?

Bunks

Originally posted by Rhianni32

I think there is a key point here that many miss.

I do not think developers are trying to necessarily trying to duplicate WoW as far as 10 million accounts. As much as we joke and insinuate that they are stupid they are probably very smart.

They just need to make a game that

1: pays for itself as far as production/start up costs goes.

2: Lay off 90% of staff to save on cost and establish a hard core following of players that pretty much no matter what will always stay. We have people still playing EQ and until recently paying a sub. Would we say that EQ was a failure for not hitting 10 million users? They profit margin for them is probably incredible. DAOC as well and they havent had an expansion for several years now I think.

we as players measure success in terms of number of players as if a game having 100 servers, 99 of which will never impact you r character, is somehow better then one with 10 servers. If both produce content and updates then is there a difference?

I don't even think it is that complicated tbh.

As far as logic dictates, EA never really cared about TOR's success long term. EA's approach has always been how to screw it customers without letting them know it, while milking them to death. BW wanted SWTOR to be a great game, EA wanted it to push people to download Origin. EA has made no attempt to disguise their long term profit goal, and that is in the casual game market. Not MMO's. They think that casual games will crush pc/console games in the near future and Origin is the pipeline for them to maximize profits.

I said this a while back, EA is not competing with Blizzard, they are trying to compete with Steam.

 

nyxium

WoW will be the death of WoW clones.

Nadia

Originally posted by Bunks

That was Feb 2011

This is what they said in Feb 2012 -

What I basically said is 0.5 million subs, we could break even at the margin. 1 million subs would be

meaningfully profitable, but nothing to write home about. - Ritticello EA CEO

thanks for the info

SEANMCAD

Originally posted by ActionMMORPG

So fantasy themepark, quest-progression, tab-targeted button mashing combat MMOs with instanced dungeons, instanced PVP, and gear progression raiding endgame is dead.

 

Allowing for slight deviations, that's 85% (if not more) of the current market.

LOL..

true but not to worry sports fans guild wars 2 and diablo 3 (which isnt even an MMO) is coming out soon to fix all that.

ironic that both those games are also sequels  and here we are talking about wanting something different.

 

Kuppa

Originally posted by SEANMCAD

I don’t know exactly what gamer demographic I would be in other than ‘core gamer who is not the most of hard core but is very ripe to spend a large amount of money for games and willing to commit to it’

Here is a list of MMOs I haven’t spent a single dime on:

WoW

Rift

Aion

LoTR

SWTOR

Soon to be on that list: Secret World and Guild Wars

 

 

Why? because they either look like a cartoon to me or they appear to have less depth that the community made mods in NeverWinter Nights (and I am not talking about in game stories)

 

Dang, what do you play?

WhiteLantern

Originally posted by Kuppa

Originally posted by SEANMCAD

I don’t know exactly what gamer demographic I would be in other than ‘core gamer who is not the most of hard core but is very ripe to spend a large amount of money for games and willing to commit to it’

Here is a list of MMOs I haven’t spent a single dime on:

WoW

Rift

Aion

LoTR

SWTOR

Soon to be on that list: Secret World and Guild Wars

 

 

Why? because they either look like a cartoon to me or they appear to have less depth that the community made mods in NeverWinter Nights (and I am not talking about in game stories)

 

Dang, what do you play?

These forums, I'd wager.

jinxxed0

Originally posted by Scypheroth

we can only hope........that style of MMORPG is dead and is dated......

WoW was dated before it was even a thought. The non-gamers that it brought in didn't know they were being fed old mush though.

Sovrath

Originally posted by sekira

 

This should speak volumes that gamers are not looking for games that are "similar to WoW" anymore and do not wants games that fit the bill of a linear theme park. If WOWTOR monumentally collapses or does not experience great success (profit), I would expect more developers, if they haven't already, will begin to distance themselves from SWTOR/WOW as they realize now that advertising a game as a WoW clone should not be considered a selling point to get people interested in their MMO anymore.

 

Not even remotely close.

It would speak volumes if a company created a game with standard boiler plate mmo mechanics and NO ONE BOUGHT IT.

Or very few.

When 2 million players buy a game that has standard mmo mechanics it is pretty clear that the issue is not standard mmo mechanics.

Apart from the players buying it 'just because' I would say the real issue is that there is nothing for players to do once they reach level cap. Or at least, nothing that many players want to do.

So "no" the standard mmo formula isn't necessarily dead.

Amaranthar

Originally posted by WhiteLantern

Originally posted by Kuppa

Originally posted by SEANMCAD

I don’t know exactly what gamer demographic I would be in other than ‘core gamer who is not the most of hard core but is very ripe to spend a large amount of money for games and willing to commit to it’

Here is a list of MMOs I haven’t spent a single dime on:

WoW

Rift

Aion

LoTR

SWTOR

Soon to be on that list: Secret World and Guild Wars

 

 

Why? because they either look like a cartoon to me or they appear to have less depth that the community made mods in NeverWinter Nights (and I am not talking about in game stories)

 

Dang, what do you play?

These forums, I'd wager.

In that case, he'd be playing the better game.

WhiteLantern

Originally posted by Amaranthar

Originally posted by WhiteLantern

Originally posted by Kuppa

Originally posted by SEANMCAD

I don’t know exactly what gamer demographic I would be in other than ‘core gamer who is not the most of hard core but is very ripe to spend a large amount of money for games and willing to commit to it’

Here is a list of MMOs I haven’t spent a single dime on:

WoW

Rift

Aion

LoTR

SWTOR

Soon to be on that list: Secret World and Guild Wars

 

 

Why? because they either look like a cartoon to me or they appear to have less depth that the community made mods in NeverWinter Nights (and I am not talking about in game stories)

 

Dang, what do you play?

These forums, I'd wager.

In that case, he'd be playing the better game.

Won't deny, some days................

Torgrim

SWTOR is not the death of WoW clones, Bioware have created a whole new genre with SWTOR called RailPark.

Amaranthar

Originally posted by Sovrath

Originally posted by sekira

 

This should speak volumes that gamers are not looking for games that are "similar to WoW" anymore and do not wants games that fit the bill of a linear theme park. If WOWTOR monumentally collapses or does not experience great success (profit), I would expect more developers, if they haven't already, will begin to distance themselves from SWTOR/WOW as they realize now that advertising a game as a WoW clone should not be considered a selling point to get people interested in their MMO anymore.

 

Not even remotely close.

It would speak volumes if a company created a game with standard boiler plate mmo mechanics and NO ONE BOUGHT IT.

Or very few.

When 2 million players buy a game that has standard mmo mechanics it is pretty clear that the issue is not standard mmo mechanics.

Apart from the players buying it 'just because' I would say the real issue is that there is nothing for players to do once they reach level cap. Or at least, nothing that many players want to do.

So "no" the standard mmo formula isn't necessarily dead.

Yeah it is. Remember that a large portion of SWTOR's sales went to Star Wars collectors. Many more bought into the hype that it was going to somehow be "next gen".

But when the subs don't come in, and when the servers are dying, and the same thing has happened repeatedly before to other clones, you can count on the fact that Themepark is dead.