Actually, on a million people, you can get a relatively high indication of accuracy (see here), if we're only talking about that one question. So you can actually get a fairly high (97%+) level of confidence from that low sampling for that number of people.
Yes, but I think what Iselin is saying is that with such a large number to start with, you can make these types of polls say anything you want them to say.
Exactly. Especially since forum polls are not random samples. They are a self-selected sampling.
"Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”
― Umberto Eco
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” ― CD PROJEKT RED
A poll (624 votes) is included in the thread: "Releasing financial statements to backers and the publci will be a good thing overall" Agree 24,84 % Disagree 75,16 %
(includes some DiscoLando Dev Responses)
Have fun
Well since you always enjoy pointing out how low the refund requests are on a % basis, let me just point out that 624 voters is ... let's see 624 / 989,198 = 0.06% of the citizens responded and 0.047% of citizens disagreed.
A poll (624 votes) is included in the thread: "Releasing financial statements to backers and the publci will be a good thing overall" Agree 24,84 % Disagree 75,16 %
(includes some DiscoLando Dev Responses)
Have fun
Well since you always enjoy pointing out how low the refund requests are on a % basis, let me just point out that 624 voters is ... let's see 624 / 989,198 = 0.06% of the citizens responded and 0.047% of citizens disagreed.
Actually, on a million people, you can get a relatively high indication of accuracy (see here), if we're only talking about that one question. So you can actually get a fairly high (97%+) level of confidence from that low sampling for that number of people.
A lot of people make this mistake all the time, but what you are talking about requires a RANDOM sample, not a sample taken from a forum post on the official forums.
They need those whales (horrible term) to keep donating, and they will.
Lemme see - the "whale" issue:
Since 7th August 2015 (about 2 months ago) approx. 3 M$ have been added. It was a slow summer season for CIG.
21235 new backers joined the project (or roughly 360 per day ... i am only counting UEE captains with a pledge package here ... those that added money).
If every new backer ONLY bought the minimal (54 $) pledge package (unlikely) that accounts for 1.15 M$.
Give the numbers above ...on average new backers have spent 141 $. As the long time average per new backer over the last years is around 100 bucks, there IS some influence to be seen from existing players buying more ships ... but not a dominating influence.
Anyone understanding investments would know that they have a portion of this invested into secure bonds or similar investment. That alone generates a huge amount of money monthly and secures the continuation and sustainability of the project. Do you think he has it stuffed under his bed in a shoebox?
Anyone understanding investments would know that they have a portion of this invested into secure bonds or similar investment. That alone generates a huge amount of money monthly and secures the continuation and sustainability of the project. Do you think he has it stuffed under his bed in a shoebox?
If that figure of 8 M$ in LIQUID cash mentioned in the media (coming from anonymous sources) is accurate, many people seem to overlook other money parked in investments (non liquid assets). Which are most likely significantly higher than those 8 M$. One does not want inflation to eat up one's money in the bank.
A poll (624 votes) is included in the thread: "Releasing financial statements to backers and the publci will be a good thing overall" Agree 24,84 % Disagree 75,16 %
(includes some DiscoLando Dev Responses)
Have fun
Well since you always enjoy pointing out how low the refund requests are on a % basis, let me just point out that 624 voters is ... let's see 624 / 989,198 = 0.06% of the citizens responded and 0.047% of citizens disagreed.
A poll (624 votes) is included in the thread: "Releasing financial statements to backers and the publci will be a good thing overall" Agree 24,84 % Disagree 75,16 %
(includes some DiscoLando Dev Responses)
Have fun
Well since you always enjoy pointing out how low the refund requests are on a % basis, let me just point out that 624 voters is ... let's see 624 / 989,198 = 0.06% of the citizens responded and 0.047% of citizens disagreed.
Actually, on a million people, you can get a relatively high indication of accuracy (see here), if we're only talking about that one question. So you can actually get a fairly high (97%+) level of confidence from that low sampling for that number of people.
A lot of people make this mistake all the time, but what you are talking about requires a RANDOM sample, not a sample taken from a forum post on the official forums.
Not at all. They aren't sampling the general populous, they're sampling their own community. Like for a US election, they wouldn't sample data from Europe. Unless I completely missed the point you were making (which my wife says happens).
Actually, on a million people, you can get a relatively high indication of accuracy (see here), if we're only talking about that one question. So you can actually get a fairly high (97%+) level of confidence from that low sampling for that number of people.
A lot of people make this mistake all the time, but what you are talking about requires a RANDOM sample, not a sample taken from a forum post on the official forums.
Not at all. They aren't sampling the general populous, they're sampling their own community. Like for a US election, they wouldn't sample data from Europe. Unless I completely missed the point you were making (which my wife says happens).
But they're not. If they had sent this to actual backers in an e-mail and they responded then you have a point. But the forums isn't the place to pull from. It's a very biased place where people are even banned for being overly negative.
In general though, I'm not trying to discredit the numbers or anything. I'm mostly talking about the way you presented the confidence interval. The numbers are probably very close to what the RSI forums think.
Not at all. They aren't sampling the general populous, they're sampling their own community. Like for a US election, they wouldn't sample data from Europe. Unless I completely missed the point you were making (which my wife says happens).
Sorry but I have to agree with your wife on this one
Sampling their own community would involve having a polling firm contact a selection of the 900K+ citizens chosen at random. Posting a poll on their site is not a random sampling - it's a sampling of those who went to the forum during the poll period and decided to participate for their own personal reason.
"Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community ... but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots”
― Umberto Eco
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?” ― CD PROJEKT RED
Not at all. They aren't sampling the general populous, they're sampling their own community. Like for a US election, they wouldn't sample data from Europe. Unless I completely missed the point you were making (which my wife says happens).
Sorry but I have to agree with your wife on this one
Sampling their own community would involve having a polling firm contact a selection of the 900K+ citizens chosen at random. Posting a poll on their site is not a random sampling - it's a sampling of those who went to the forum during the poll period and decided to participate for their own personal reason.
Funny fact from the Alganon/QuestOnline disaster, the Take2 incident and overall DS treatment of people and even life:
Act like a virus and you can infiltrate and poison systems, infect people and (regarding Alganon) seize control. Then you can suck out money or what else you strife for.
I know some people think DS is the one and only the SC supporters point their fingers on when the mud is slung around. They do it because they experienced first handed what he tried in the RSI forums when he was a backer and how he reacted when people found out about him by adding one and one together when his blogs came up.
Yes SC has become a hype (oh wonder...) and yes there are supporters who close their eyes for everything that critizeses the project but there are enough supporters who are open minded. Do not generalize.
But when someone tries to sabotage something you support, believe in or even worship, don't you think that they try to defend it? Of course people do.
Yes for some SC and CR has become a cult but it's not ok to paint it in black and white. People tend to fight/defend for what they believe in. That's normal human behavior and no one is perfect in his actions and beliefs. It's how you treat people and their opinions.
I tend not to listen to moralists and people who act and talk from above as I experienced that a lot in my life and was even infected by it for some time.
Better talk and act on eye level. Something DS never does. I also never believe someone who brags about his work but has never delivered. Even worse when you claim to have a PhD and blatantly lie to gather negative and/or uninformed people around you.
The whole disaster around SC is DS work. For some of you this seems far fetched but you could start by reading this:
And then search/google your way through DS history. That would be fair because people do this with CR's past (and not everything was good).
And once again to give you no fuel to attack CR. He has narcissistic tendencies and his managing skills are not the best but I can tell you that the work is full of bosses and managers who are no better or even worse (depending how good or bad your skill and ego/heart ratio is).
But CR's heart is in the right place contrary to DS. If you are empathic you can see it directly by comparing their public behavior and by looking into their eyes. DS blinks so much when he talks or gives interviews... a clear indicator that there is a lot of shit going on in his brain. He also has that intimidating aura.
And the GG thing... I saw that coming months back. DS said and I believe he would say it today again, that he stays neutral to it but in fact he uses his virus tactics on GG. But do people really believe that GG is only about ethics? No for some it's a platform to get their 15 minutes of fame. Funny thing that his first Twitter post you see is about GG.
stay open minded
You can tell a rabid SC/Chris Roberts supporter by their obsession with Derek Smart. Focusing on Smart, thereby taking advantage of his poor reputation among many gamers, was a tactic that was advanced by Chris Roberts since the very beginning of this in an effort to draw attention away from their own malfeasance. Even after it being repeated over and over again that this has nothing to do with Derek Smart by those simply agreeing with the message, SC fanboys continue to drag his name into the conversation. Again, you can hate Derek Smart all you want for bringing this issue into the media limelight but that does not negate the fact that many of us were raising the same questions but simply did not have the platform and bullhorn to have our voices heard.
The only reason that this matter has garnered so much attention is because there is substance to it. If this had just been about Derek Smart, this issue would have fizzled a long time ago. SC supporters are obsessed with Derek Smart and they do not realize that their obsession with the man has elevated him to far loftier heights than any of his supporters could have ever done. Little do you realize that your hatred for this man, and your constant obsession and mention of his name has had the opposite effect of making him far more relevant in the world of gaming than he could have ever hoped.
Keep bringing up his name. I am sure he is loving it.
Tbh, I'm actually considering becoming a backer just to have some skin in this game. At this point it's like betting on the Super Bowl. It's way more interesting if you're monetarily invested.
Hahaha! It becomes more real when you are actually part of the scandal and drama, isnt it? :pleased:
A poll (624 votes) is included in the thread: "Releasing financial statements to backers and the publci will be a good thing overall" Agree 24,84 % Disagree 75,16 %
(includes some DiscoLando Dev Responses)
Have fun
Well since you always enjoy pointing out how low the refund requests are on a % basis, let me just point out that 624 voters is ... let's see 624 / 989,198 = 0.06% of the citizens responded and 0.047% of citizens disagreed.
He put a lot of work into that post and you just kicked it to the curb like a dirty rag in a few seconds.
Anyone understanding investments would know that they have a portion of this invested into secure bonds or similar investment. That alone generates a huge amount of money monthly and secures the continuation and sustainability of the project. Do you think he has it stuffed under his bed in a shoebox?
This is not a bank or an investment firm we're talking about. It's a video game company. Even if it wasn't extremely shady from a legal perspective, I highly doubt they're using backer money to purchase bonds and make other investments. If this were found out to be the case, CIG/RSI would land in a heap of trouble.
"The simple is the seal of the true and beauty is the splendor of truth" -Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar Authored 139 missions in VendettaOnline and 6 tracks in Distance
Where there's smoke. Bottom line is, next year this game will dissapoint and will never get fully released or deliver it's promises. Or the 90 million funds are actually being perfectly handled and game will meet deadline before refunds have to be handed out. It's a waiting game to see what happens or doesn't else is speculation huh.
SO I see people are still latching onto the release of financial information. People who have no stake at that.
ANd I see people have an issue with a poll of actual people with something at stake saying no. No matter how you slice it their words are more important than ours.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
SO I see people are still latching onto the release of financial information. People who have no stake at that.
ANd I see people have an issue with a poll of actual people with something at stake saying no. No matter how you slice it their words are more important than ours.
Actually people looking in from the ouside are probably more likely to have an unbias view.
Unlike other people who keep quoting Chris Roberts
People have enough information to make their own minds up.
SO I see people are still latching onto the release of financial information. People who have no stake at that.
ANd I see people have an issue with a poll of actual people with something at stake saying no. No matter how you slice it their words are more important than ours.
Actually people looking in from the ouside are probably more likely to have an unbias view.
Unlike other people who keep quotinhg Chris Roberts
Doubtful, since both sides keep rehashing the same things over and over here, whether interested in the game/industry/implications or not. And all this, from still unsubstantiated claims. Until the truth comes out, forums like these will be inundated with accusations, mudslinging, and general belittling to opposing viewpoints...exactly like anything in RL. Sadly.
Not at all. They aren't sampling the general populous, they're sampling their own community. Like for a US election, they wouldn't sample data from Europe. Unless I completely missed the point you were making (which my wife says happens).
Sorry but I have to agree with your wife on this one
Sampling their own community would involve having a polling firm contact a selection of the 900K+ citizens chosen at random. Posting a poll on their site is not a random sampling - it's a sampling of those who went to the forum during the poll period and decided to participate for their own personal reason.
Gonna have to agree with Iselin here.
Example that has nothing to do with video games is;
I decide to write up a paper about drug addiction in my city and I want to see how many people are currently addicted to opiates so I do a poll but I go to the local methadone clinic and start asking people there. My results are going to be very skewed in favour that almost everyone in town is actually a opiate addict.
SO I see people are still latching onto the release of financial information. People who have no stake at that.
ANd I see people have an issue with a poll of actual people with something at stake saying no. No matter how you slice it their words are more important than ours.
Actually people looking in from the ouside are probably more likely to have an unbias view.
Unlike other people who keep quoting Chris Roberts
People have enough information to make their own minds up.
Our minds mean nothing on this issue lol. Why should anyone be concerned about where your mind rests on this? If this is ever taken to court even then your mind means squat.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
I'm glad he is taking this so serious, Escapist deserves to be destroyed and I hope it happens. Games journalism is a complete joke and at the very least the lady that wrote that article should be shown for the hack she is.
Comments
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
Since 7th August 2015 (about 2 months ago) approx. 3 M$ have been added. It was a slow summer season for CIG.
21235 new backers joined the project (or roughly 360 per day ... i am only counting UEE captains with a pledge package here ... those that added money).
If every new backer ONLY bought the minimal (54 $) pledge package (unlikely) that accounts for 1.15 M$.
Give the numbers above ...on average new backers have spent 141 $. As the long time average per new backer over the last years is around 100 bucks, there IS some influence to be seen from existing players buying more ships ... but not a dominating influence.
Have fun
Life IS Feudal
Have fun
Crazkanuk
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Azarelos - 90 Hunter - Emerald
Durnzig - 90 Paladin - Emerald
Demonicron - 90 Death Knight - Emerald Dream - US
Tankinpain - 90 Monk - Azjol-Nerub - US
Brindell - 90 Warrior - Emerald Dream - US
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In general though, I'm not trying to discredit the numbers or anything. I'm mostly talking about the way you presented the confidence interval. The numbers are probably very close to what the RSI forums think.
Sampling their own community would involve having a polling firm contact a selection of the 900K+ citizens chosen at random. Posting a poll on their site is not a random sampling - it's a sampling of those who went to the forum during the poll period and decided to participate for their own personal reason.
“Microtransactions? In a single player role-playing game? Are you nuts?”
― CD PROJEKT RED
Have fun
You can tell a rabid SC/Chris Roberts supporter by their obsession with Derek Smart. Focusing on Smart, thereby taking advantage of his poor reputation among many gamers, was a tactic that was advanced by Chris Roberts since the very beginning of this in an effort to draw attention away from their own malfeasance. Even after it being repeated over and over again that this has nothing to do with Derek Smart by those simply agreeing with the message, SC fanboys continue to drag his name into the conversation. Again, you can hate Derek Smart all you want for bringing this issue into the media limelight but that does not negate the fact that many of us were raising the same questions but simply did not have the platform and bullhorn to have our voices heard.
The only reason that this matter has garnered so much attention is because there is substance to it. If this had just been about Derek Smart, this issue would have fizzled a long time ago. SC supporters are obsessed with Derek Smart and they do not realize that their obsession with the man has elevated him to far loftier heights than any of his supporters could have ever done. Little do you realize that your hatred for this man, and your constant obsession and mention of his name has had the opposite effect of making him far more relevant in the world of gaming than he could have ever hoped.
Keep bringing up his name. I am sure he is loving it.
Have fun
It becomes more real when you are actually part of the scandal and drama, isnt it? :pleased:
New players can get a welcome package and old/returning players can also get a welcome back package and 7 days free subscription time! Just click here to use my referral invitation
He put a lot of work into that post and you just kicked it to the curb like a dirty rag in a few seconds.
Not nice
"The simple is the seal of the true and beauty is the splendor of truth" -Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar
Authored 139 missions in Vendetta Online and 6 tracks in Distance
ANd I see people have an issue with a poll of actual people with something at stake saying no. No matter how you slice it their words are more important than ours.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
HOT NEW ARTICLE!
https://techraptor.net/content/star-citizen-lawsuits-and-journalism-ethics
New players can get a welcome package and old/returning players can also get a welcome back package and 7 days free subscription time! Just click here to use my referral invitation
Unlike other people who keep quoting Chris Roberts
People have enough information to make their own minds up.
Until the truth comes out, forums like these will be inundated with accusations, mudslinging, and general belittling to opposing viewpoints...exactly like anything in RL. Sadly.
Gonna have to agree with Iselin here.
Example that has nothing to do with video games is;
I decide to write up a paper about drug addiction in my city and I want to see how many people are currently addicted to opiates so I do a poll but I go to the local methadone clinic and start asking people there. My results are going to be very skewed in favour that almost everyone in town is actually a opiate addict.
Please refrain from posting legal "facts" if your law degree came out of a Cracker Jack box.
For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson
I'm glad he is taking this so serious, Escapist deserves to be destroyed and I hope it happens. Games journalism is a complete joke and at the very least the lady that wrote that article should be shown for the hack she is.