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Lord of The Rings Online - Active Subscriptions (Paying): ~ 162,500 *updated 6/10/08*
sempiternal
Member UncommonPosts: 1,082
*updates at bottom*
Based on my best estimates from the publicly available facts, Lord of The Rings Online has between 130,000 to 195,000 currently paying subscriptions. Feel free to add any relevant facts you know of and we may be able to come up with a more definitive estimate; I will update as more facts are posted or are available.
The estimate of between, "800,000 and 1 million paying players in the U.S. and Europe," is highly inaccurate, as it originated by a journalist from The Boston Globe dividing four million characters ever created by a wrongly assumed maximum of five characters per subscription. The actual maximum characters per subscription is 55. Merely dividing the total characters ever created, by any number, also makes some impossible assumptions;
A) All characters ever created, were created by currently paying subscriptions - free subscriptions have been available in unlimited numbers since release.
All paying subscriptions that ever created characters are still active; none have been closed.
C) All copies of the game sold were converted to paying subscriptions after the free gameplay expired.
Here are the supporting facts and numbers for LoTRO having between 130-195k:
1. Turbine has said that four million characters have been created in Lords of The Ring Online (LoTRO) since release.
http://www.boston.com/business/technology/articles/2007/09/08/turbine_stakes_its_online_game_turf
2. There is actually a maximum of 55 characters per subscription, not five. In the above article, five was incorrectly used as the maximum by the author to arrive at the 800,000 estimate, by dividing four million by five. Even disregarding that an ongoing unlimited number of free subscriptions and canceled subscriptions have been used to create characters and dividing four million by a median of 27.5 characters per subscription (half of 55), that would equal a rough estimate of 145,455 subscriptions.
This 145k number is likely higher because the number of players that create more than the median of 27.5 characters is the extreme. Most players likely create no more than a handful of characters, which would bring the average below the median. However, the 145k number is also likely reduced by the probability that not all characters ever created were created by currently active, paying subscriptions. A good number of characters have likely been created by free trial subscriptions and subscriptions that have been canceled.
3. The CEO of Turbine, Jeff Anderson specifically said, "We're probably now the second-largest MMORPG operating that was built in the US right now, you know, built in North America/Europe."
http://interviews.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=07/06/08/0410202
Using other MMOG numbers, and the CEO's statement, the actual range of paying subscriptions can be narrowed down, i.e. what is the 3rd largest MMOG made by a US company and what are the highest numbers for an MMOG owned by an asian company operating in the US.
Ultima Online and Dark Age of Camelot by Electronic Arts' EA Mythic are both at about 100,000 subscribers. Everquest and Everquest 2 by Sony are at about 135,00 to 182,000 respectively. Also, City of Heros (CoH) by NCSoft is at about 153,000 subscribers. Then, according to the CEO's statement, LoTRO would have been between 100,000 and 135,000 active subscribers four months ago, at a time when 172,000 copies of LoTRO had been sold in the US.
http://au.gamespot.com/news/6176030.html
4. As of less than a week ago, LoTRO has sold about another 28,000 copies in the US, for a total of about 200,000 copies so far. Using this information and estimating that about another 30,000 copies have likewise been sold in Europe and elsewhere at the same time, for a total of 58,000 more copies in the last three months, LoTRO's current range of actively paying subscribers is more likely to be in the 130,000 to 195,000 range. 195,000 would be at the high end, because it would mean that all new copies sold in the last three months are still actively subscribing.
http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/sep2007/id20070928_550277.htm
5. Not all boxes sold have likely been converted to paying subscriptions. Some try it for the free month, some a few months longer, and then they quit.
6. Free trial subscriptions, which are marketed across the Internet in unlimited quantities, are also capable of creating up to 55 characters and do not have to pay at all. Characters created with these free accounts would not be considered paying subscribers.
7. There has only been one new server addition, 17 days after LoTRO was released. Turbine has said that each server is capable of supporting about 10,000 players and there are 25 servers; 11 in the US, 11 in Europe, 2 in Japan, and 1 in China. If each server supports about 10,000 players, multiplying that by 25 servers, results in support for about 250,000 active players.
Therefore, all things considered, I would say a fair estimate of currently paying subscribers of LoTRO is in the 130,000 to 195,000 range. Since Turbine does not release active subscription numbers, there is no way to tell exactly, but this is a far more accurate estimate than the 800,000 number that was wrongly calculated with the misinformation that only 5 characters can be created per account, and the assumption that all the characters ever created were created by currently paying subscriptions.
*update 1*
It's clear that Turbine is now backpedaling.
Originally, on, August 29, 2007, Turbine posted news to their company website that, "Since its launch in April, LOTRO has quickly become the second largest MMORPG with an estimated 4 million characters calling Middle-earth their home."
However, on, October 5, 2007, Turbine posted similar news on their site, but this time included an asterisk, "Turbine’s most recent title, The Lord of the Rings Online (www.lotro.com), has quickly become the second largest MMORPG*."
*Comparison data includes subscription-based MMORPG titles developed in North America based on reported data.
The day before the October 5th news posting, CEO Jeff Anderson was replaced with Jim Crowley.
*update 2 - 6/10/08*
Well, finally we've got an updated chart from Sirbruce, the guy that has been tracking the numbers since the beginning, over 10 years ago. If there is anyone with reliable numbers, it is SirBruce; nobody spends more time talking with companies, reading reports, and plotting subscription numbers than him. His numbers coincide with the data I analyzed a few months ago in the original post in this thread.
As such, it's now more clear than ever that the news articles that came out at that time estimating near 1 million subscribers based upon total characters ever created, were indeed highly inflated. And the most likely number for LoTRO subscription numbers is right about where I estimated, between 130-195k. Sirbruce received a 150k number from inside sources in December; well within that range.
To be more fair, the median of my estimate would be 162.5k, that's probably very close. According to Sirbruce, LoTRO subscriptions have been dropping or were initially estimated on the high side though.
LoTRO at 150k in December 2007
From Sirbruce's site:
The Lord of the Rings Online (Accuracy Rating:
Launched on April 24, 2007, LotrO has been a big success for Turbine, winning several awards and garnering many positive reviews. While exact subscriber numbers have never been officially released, in August 2007 Turbine claimed LotRO was the second largest MMORPG developed in North America. This leaves out games like RuneScape, Dofus, and EVE Online; essentially, Turbine was indicating that the game had more current subscribers than EQ or EQ II, but less than World of Warcraft. Based on this statement, I estimate that as of August 2007 LotRO had approximately 200,000 subscribers. Inside sources place the number of active subscribers at 150,000 as of December 2007.
Comments
It's actually ~150k active subs
Which is not a bad number but not as good as Turbine expected
On a side note: if Jeff Anderson, the CEO of Turbine, claims that LotRO is the second largest MMO built in the US, then he must consider EverQuest II to be a korean game or something?!
I think the number of active, paying accounts (I specify active to exclude lifetime accounts that are not being used) is definitely under 200,000 but definitely above 125,000.
With 25 servers worldwide, there is definitely no chance the total number of active players is above 250,000, and that is a maximum that includes free trial accounts, which at any given time likely constitutes an appreciable percentage of the total active players. I would go so far as to say 5%-10%.
Also, consider that even if each game server can hold about 10,000 people (not all at once, but that many people who use that server when they play, total), no sane game company lets their servers totally max out as that causes problems. A more conservative estimate is that each has perhaps 7,500, which, multiplied by 25, yields 187,500.
Is this guesswork? You bet it is. Therefore, I am not passing this off as fact, since it is just an opinion based on a series of approximations and such, nothing more. However, I have not seen anything better done to attempt to lend credence to there being more than 200,000 active subscribers. Some people are conjuring up magical server technology, something only EVE is doing and can do based on the near infinite size of their world, then claiming that each server has that max, which is all folly.
People forget that even if a LotRO server could hold 50,000 people at a time, it does not mean it would, because there would be no content! They are bound as much by technology as they are by content.
Anyway, in the end, LotRO is currently a successful game that is not, based on what I have read, dying, and should be turning a tidy profit. At the same time, it is not massively successful on the scale we now measure things (WoW, look what you did!). So, if you enjoy the game, go on enjoying it, as the number of subscribers does not affect how much fun you have so long as enough people exist to play with.
No I dont think they have 800k. However I have no reason to believe your numbers are even close to being correct either. Unless Turbine releases the number everyone is only speculating. Hell the truth is, every single company that even posts there numbers bend the truth in one way or another. That includes some of the more popular titles (WoW, Daoc,EQ2 ect)
The real question is who really gives a flying crap? So long as you enjoy the game and there is enough players to keep the servers going I see no point in even worrying about the number. The only ones that need to worry about the numbers have them and thats the company.
xenogias why give a flying a crap? History 101 , those us burnt by AC2 who had to fight tooth and nail to get a refund for the expansion, when Turbine decised during the creation of the expansion on a threshold to keep the servers open.
Generally you dont want to buy into a dying product. For example , AC2 was transfer to Ac1 or took 9 months to get a partial refund. Even CC companies were stalled in making a full refund for 3 months.
I bought an advance copy then played for a few months then got bored. I payed for a friend a lifetime sub , (he still plays, big LOTR geek spent almost 2 hours a day smoking hobbit crack and talking LOTR instead of doing quests some nights.)
I hope things turn around it was really good community creepy as hell but nice none the less. (I also bought 3 copies for my brothers but they never used them)
Ok I will give you that you dont want to buy a dying product. However in most cases you dont see companies spend money on an expansion just to shut the servers down. I would not worry about LOTRO though. I would guess this is turbines last chance at making it. Thus they will be doing everything possible to keep people playing and getting new members. I could be wrong, but I cant remember the last time a major MMO shut down so quickly after release.
Turbine made an expansion to Asheron's Call 2 right before they shut that game down.
Will history repeat itself?
Come forth, Asheron's Call 2 players and enlighten xenogias about this matter
No-one denies that Turbine screwed the pooch on AC II. They almost did it again with DDO (they seem to have pulled it out, surprisingly). But lets be honest, both of those games had some serious warning signs from the get go. It's obvious that LoTRO is doing better than that. It's not going anywhere as much as everyone that got anally molested by Turbine in AC II, or is just pissed that LoTRO isn't pre-Trammel UO with hobbits or whatever the hell they are looking for might want to believe it.
As far as number of subs, I can pull a bunch of numbers out of my butt and use the latest ass math methods to come up with something totally different. It's a pointless debate. I suspect it's between 200K and 500K globally, but why bother to go into the ass math calculations that lead me to this conclusion, when it can easily be countered with equally speculative different ass math. I could in fact use ass math to show that either no-one is currently playing or that that 800K number is true. Once you start trying to use ass math in a debate, there's no end to it. Why not include rumors from "anonymous Turbine insiders" and messages from angels?
No one knows but Turbine, end of story.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
Here we go again!
I can't wait to see what AgtSmith says about this.
From what I've seen, I'd have to say those numbers are much more realistic than the 800k number tossed around earlier. And, for all that, 100k-200k active subs is a good number for a game. That's hardly a failure in anyone's book.
Honestly, I didn't enjoy the game, but I know lots of folks who did and continue to enjoy it. It's not a flop like Vanguard. Speaking of Vanguard:
That would be Vanguard: Saga of Heroes, the shortest lived MMO ever. It lasted, what, 115 days before imploding in the black hole that is and was Brad McQuaid's so-called Vision? How many servers are they down to now? Anyone?
Meanwhile, LOTRO, while not exactly the greatest game ever created, has it's fans and a definite je ne sais quoi. It's not for everyone, but the following it has is solid. Me, I found it boring and graphically unimpressive. Others love the storyline.
Don't look for this one to die anytime soon. I have a feeling it'll limp along like DAoC post ToA or UO. And really, that's nothing to sneeze at.
We speculate, because we can. We theorize, extrapolate, calculate, estimate because we have the intelligence to do so (well, some of us). We do all this and talk about it because we enjoy doing so.
One thing we can be pretty certain of, is if a company isn't publishing their actual sub numbers and obscuring the truth by releasing meaningless numbers like how many characters have been created they probably aren't very proud of the number.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
I'm going to ask that you quote a source for your 150k, or PM me with something creative.
There's also a difference between "active subs" and paying subscriptions. Generally, only paying subscriptions are used to measure a game's success. Are you saying that there are 150k active, including free trials?
i just cancelled my subscription. The fucking 360 get all my free time.
www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/1643874#1643874
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Op
Will you marry me? I so love research...and that research was so HOT!
(PS: Plus your avatar was nice...so, dont ruin it for me, and say anything I dont want to hear...ok?...lol)
Anyways...as a side note, an article had also discussed the magic number in detail...noting at least 100k subs is profitable to an MMO..It also discussed AC2, and when they finally went down, they had 38k subs...
No, I think LOTRO will still be around for a couple of years, and may make changes that bring in more players...and then we will wait and see what happens when next years big MMO's come..
www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/1643874#1643874
This is interesting...why would a CEO of a succesful MMO, that made some profits for the company...leave? Or ousted...Hmmm
lol 150k subscribers is a joke.. you gotta be kidding..
Flyff got more then that Lol
I'm going to ask that you quote a source for your 150k, or PM me with something creative.
There's also a difference between "active subs" and paying subscriptions. Generally, only paying subscriptions are used to measure a game's success. Are you saying that there are 150k active, including free trials?
Free trials are active accounts until their time has run out but they are not counted as such because they are trial accounts
I can not disclosure the person that I got these figures from because said person would like to still have a job in the end of the day
Wow, ignorance is truly bliss aye? If your statement about the 2nd of all US mmo's it would have to beat out 400k subscribers atleast as that is how high SWG reached at it's peak at one point in time. None the less if he is doing 130-200k subscribers in the US only he is doing pretty good. WoW which is currently ontop probly only has 300-500k US subscribers (I mean hell 6+ million are given out for free in china via The9).
World of Warcraft has over 2.5 million subs in the US and Star Wars Galaxies hasn't got 400k subs these days, the figure is much lower
So the one who are ignorant is in fact you
As of this post the poll reads
Forum Poll
Do you believe there are 800,000 active paying subscribers?
I find this shocking. I would say that most of what I read in the OP was intelligent and fairly well researched and in the face of Turbine's having only sold 230k copies and their maximum load capacity of 250k subscribers there're still people that believe this propoganda? if only a third of the people with subscriptions ever logged on simultaneously it would overload their network and shut em down, according to their numbers. I personally contributed 2 of those 4 million characters in probably the 60 most boring and underwhelming minutes I can remember in a free trial, and I darn sure didn't subscribe.
You see, these big corporations are all about perception management. They'll tell you anything they think will protect their backsides or prop up their bottom line. Couple that with their basic assumption the American public is as dumb as a bag of doorknobs and you get yourself some of the most preposterous claims made in print you can imagine. The sad part is that for some reason, on a fairly significant percentage of the population, it works. I wonder if it is merely coincidence that the approval polls on our most powerful politicians tend to breakdown in similar fashion?
"People are more likely to believe a big lie than a small one."
Adolf Hitler
"The people never give up their liberties but under some delusion." -Edmund Burke
Who will rise up for me against the evildoers? or who will stand up for me against the workers of iniquity?"
(Psalm 94:16)
This is so hilarious that people would actually believe there are 800k subs...too funny...
Thanks for the chuckle
Everquest 2 has a lot less active subs then most mmo's and surley Lotro.
in fact it only has 0.5% of the entire mmo market wich is still decent but nothing compaired to most others.
so anyhow.. 150k members have 4million chars??how does that work lol
the latest financial news thingeth that was linked elsewhere stated members being between 800k to 1mil mark
either way its the biggest selling US made mmorpg apparently
From the financial news >
Strategic Success
So far the success of the Lord of the Rings Online has validated Anderson's strategy. According to Anita Frazier, an analyst with NPD Group, since April the Lord of the Rings Online has sold some 200,000 copies at retail in the U.S. During that same period, World of Warcraft sold just over 335,000 units.
While the company won't reveal the number of subscribers who pay a monthly fee to access the game, analysts estimate that the title has between 800,000 and 1 million paying players in the U.S. and Europe. Those figures are based on publicized character numbers, accounting for the fact that each player can create a maximum of five characters. "That's very impressive," says Michael Pachter, an analyst with Los Angeles-based Wedbush Morgan Securities, who follows the gaming industry and who estimates that the business could generate as much as $70 million annually in subscriptions. "Not only are those headline numbers, but Turbine has reached critical mass," he continues. "They're likely profitable and can now plow the profit back into the product."
Regular cash flow is crucial for Turbine's future prospects, analysts say, allowing the company to reinvest in expansion packs, customer support, performance improvements, and innovative new features to keep players interested and entertained. "A massively multiplayer game is very different from your typical retail [gaming] product," says David Cole, an analyst with San Diego-based DFC Intelligence. "You have to be able to keep pumping money into it to keep it growing." Continued reinvestment allows the company to keep its servers running smoothly even while adding new players or new content.
Anderson says Turbine's designers are already implementing features to keep the game fresh. Later this year, a free upgrade will allow players to buy and decorate their own homes, a feature lacking in titles such as World of Warcraft. The game also integrates the Google (GOOG) Maps interface for use on maps of all of its various lands. And players can compose or upload musical scores, enabling them to stage elaborate concerts for hundreds of other players. Other paid-for updates are expected at roughly one-year intervals.
Making Tolkien Proud
"We see ourselves being in the interactive content business, the community business," Anderson says. In a nod to fervent Tolkien fans, the company built a wiki into the game, called the Lore Book, and in June invited users to participate in contributing and editing content. Since then, players have added about 30,000 entries on various creatures, locations, and legends from The Lord of the Rings mythology.
The road could get bumpy yet. Unlike other titles such as World of Warcraft, which though no doubt influenced by Tolkien's works has essentially created its own set of fables, Turbine is rigidly bound to the books. Deviating from the literature could damage the game's reputation with hardcore players who come to the game specifically for its Tolkienism. "They are treading a very fine line as far as creating new content goes," says Michael Regina, editor in chief of TheOneRing.net, a popular Tolkien fan site. Vigilant fans will be scouring every update, ready to cry foul—and stop subscribing.
Still, the title's growth has been phenomenal. Cole estimates that the launch of language and culture-specific versions of the game in China and South Korea early next year could as much as triple the number of subscribers. That still leaves a long way to go before it catches up to World of Warcraft, which contributed $500 million to Vivendi's coffers in 2005. (Pachter estimates the title brought in a further $600 million last year.) But it may not even matter. "Who cares?" asks Cole. "If you've got a product like the Lord of the Rings Online making a ton of money, who really cares if you're No. 1 or No. 2?"
Playing: World of Warcraft.
Played: Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies.
Tried: Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.
I quit the game in August and I usually concentrate on one character ingame in practically all the games I have played, in LOTRO however I had more then 1:
1) Main character was level 50 Hunter totally decked out in best gear attainable..even had 4 pieces of epic class armor
2) I had to get an alt past level 10 to keep at the fell scrying pool at all times for monster play before they changed it in Book 10...I am sure many still have that alt character on their login screen
3) Girlfriend had a level 49 Paladin on my account
4) I had a Rank 6 Warg Stalker and a couple other Monster Characters and if they are counting these then I can understand the bolstered numbers
Most early retail accounts will average out greater then mine...there are alot of peeps I knew who had more then a few characters because they wanted to try out alot of the other classes and leveling was rather easy
I figure the 150k figure is prolly the most accurate and the OP sure provided well thought out reasoning and a decent amount of research to back his hypothesis
When WOW releases its expansion in December and then WarHammer and Age of Conan release I figure they will lose roughly half their subscribers simply because many opted for Lifetime subscriptions early on and others are no so motivated to compete in PvP centric MMORPGs and I feel LOTRO is much more appealing to casual gamers...you cannot leave out that this is LORD of the RINGs in a game and many JRR Tolkien freaks are gonna continue to play because of the lore and they supposedly have like a 7 year plan for unleashing all of the content in the books
The usual fanboi lamos on these forums will beg to differ though and be careful they have no problem whatsoever reporting you for whatever they can....much like many of the players who currently play LOTRO....
It's really funny that anyone could actually beleive there are 800K active subscriptions for this game. The idea that LOTRO has that many actual subscriptions is so outlandish I have to laugh. And even better, that there are people who beleive it!
CoH released charactors made a year or so ago it was in the 20-million plus area. CoH maxed subs at around 200K last I knew.
Question:
If most MMOs don't publish their subscription numbers, then how can a CEO of one company make the statement "LOTRO is the second largest MMO in north america". Wouldn't that mean he somehow has access to subscription numbers for most/all of the other games in the industry?
Unless he is talking about average character weight. Stupid fat hobbits'es.
*Yes I realize anything is possible and there could be a number of theorized, yet plausable reasons he might have that information. The point is, when somene here quotes numbers everyone says they have no basis. When CEO makes a statement about all the games in the industry like this, we get all doe eyed and accept it as gospel truth.*