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could there be an exodus from warcraft this summer ?

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  • VortigonVortigon Member UncommonPosts: 723

    There is one factor many posters are missing in this discussion...

     

    The WOW boredom factor.

    The fact is many of the WOW players who have played for significant amount of time are becoming bored with the game.  That is a factor that has not really come into the equation until this year.

    Blizzard are begining to push their luck with expansions offering little more than another 10 levels of very similar gameplay.  Its a stage most MMOs reach at one point or another and IMO this year marks the turning point for WOW.

    If WAR comes out as a quality product with good reviews and the same level of marketing we have seen so far, then over the next 12 months its going to make a noticable dent in WOW.

    Time will tell, but thats my prediction, :)

  • neonakaneonaka Member UncommonPosts: 779

    Originally posted by Vortigon


    There is one factor many posters are missing in this discussion...
     
    The WOW boredom factor.
    The fact is many of the WOW players who have played for significant amount of time are becoming bored with the game.  That is a factor that has not really come into the equation until this year.
    Blizzard are begining to push their luck with expansions offering little more than another 10 levels of very similar gameplay.  Its a stage most MMOs reach at one point or another and IMO this year marks the turning point for WOW.
    If WAR comes out as a quality product with good reviews and the same level of marketing we have seen so far, then over the next 12 months its going to make a noticable dent in WOW.
    Time will tell, but thats my prediction, :)

    That pretty much sums it up right there, what Vort said is exactly how it is.

    Only time will tell how big the dent is.

  • GarfunkelGarfunkel Member UncommonPosts: 224
    Originally posted by mahierl2005


    The only thing that could kill wow is another Blizz MMO, or Blizzard themselves. Too many people set their MMO roots in WoW, and will never leave.

    This is very true. Many people compare all future releases against their first MMO. Fortunately for me mine was so long ago that modern ones are better beyond comparison. Any other exiles from Legend of Mir 2 here?

    _________________________________________
    You can walk the walk but can you talk the talk?

  • SonofSethSonofSeth Member UncommonPosts: 1,884

    I still feel other MMOs, all the other MMos will feel that exodus alot more than WoW. Maybe not because every game will lose more people than WoW (if that would happen, every other MMO would shut down, period), it's because every other MMO has so few subscribers compared to wow that even 5 thousand people is a noticable loss.

    As for the boredom coment. For those of you who haven't played it for a while, well, it's becoming more and more an ideal casual MMO, so to say that people who are bored will leave, I say they left already, and those are the people that will go to WAR and AoC and criple other games, not WoW. And besides, with this new casual grind, do you realy think people want to replace that with a hard core PVP grind, or in case of AoC even harder core PVE grind? It's still a grind and I would be realy surprised if most of the people who do leave don't come back few months later to a more familiar grind.

    The summer is crazy, so alot of things is possible, but winter is when things quiet down and people just seek a worm and cumfy place to rest. Who knows, maybe we find out that when people leave for WAR and AoC all the so called childish and immature behavior stops too, remains to be seen.

    You WAR folk like that Paul creature, that's a very powerful message in itself.

    image

  • oakthornnoakthornn Member UncommonPosts: 863

    By the time WAR goes live, within the first month if the spread of mouth and ratings are good, you'll see ALOT of hardcore MMO gamers jump ship IMMEDIATELY.. Now, keep in mind many people "with high end rigs" will already be gone when AoC goes live, so with WAR and AoC on the horizon, I see WoW' losing it's claim as the King of MMO's shortly after WAR hits.

    Think about it. WAR and AoC alone will propably have at least 3-4 million subscribers. Where do you think 95% of these subscribers are coming from?? WoW or ex WoW players,,,including myself.

    To be quite honest, I've been waiting on AoC more than WOW simply because my PC was top notch a year ago. I want to test it out on the best looking MMO coming out this year.

    Now, on the other hand, I believe WAR's lore is more interesting and alot more similar to D&D than AoC. I personally don't like the world of Conan as much as I do with WAR. BUT, with what I've seen so far, AoC looks like the better mmo for my taste,, BUT I haven't played WAR yet, so I cant really give an accurate assessment on how the game plays.

    Back in 2004, I said basically the same thing regarding WoW and EQ2. WoW looked cheesey and childish compared to EQ2, but back then I played EQ2 in beta and for the first couple months of it being live. Then I jumped ship to WoW when word of mouth began to spread on how much "fun" the gameplay was. The graphics were bleh but I loved the game for about a year before quitting due to boredom.

    Now, maybe the same thing may happen with WAR. After watching many BETA vids, the game looks like alot of fun with it's linear combat system. I like the fact you must perform certain attacks before being able to unleash more powerful devastating abilities. It really looks alot of fun but the graphics look like they belong in 2004,,not 2008. That's the only problem I have with WAR as of now.

    Anyway, I think i got a little of topic, lol.

    Rallithon Oakthornn
    (Retired Heirophant of the 60th season)

  • StellosStellos Member UncommonPosts: 1,491

    OP, it is a very likely scenerio.  I've anticipated the same thing for nearly a year now.  We'll just have to wait and see what happens, but keep in mind WAR is drastically different from WoW (even though it has many visual similarities).

  • kraidenkraiden Staff WriterMember UncommonPosts: 638

    Speaking as a fan and not as media...

    I hope the majority of WoW hearted players stay in wow and hope the daoc and UO players come to WAR.  now Jeff and Matt would be pretty upset if I was saying that not as a fan, I do want whats best for their game and wish for them to topple the industry and provide me with pleanty of content. (besides I own stock in EA anyways )

     

    but as a classic pvp gamer, I want to play with other pvp gamers. its a distraction when you have people who arent the same mindset as you ruining your game play. My server when I played WoW had 5000 or so people on at primetime and I could walk around an entire night in the openfields and only get in a handful of fights. whenever I get in these fights the people usually try and run away or never come back, win or lose. My server in DAoC however would have 400 people online and 200 of them would be out in emain trying to kill eachother for 5 hours straight. and if you find a small group and fight them.... they come back with the same small group to fight you again. there was a sense of honor in daoc that dosent exist in most other games.... it was a sense of competitiveness to show you were better. ever see 2 people fighting in wow and people jump in the fight? it was common place not to jump in a fight between your realm mates and another group. . I want to see assist trains and not bunny hoping /circle straife mania in a game.

    the sense of gang honor is what I am hoping comes back and lives once again in Warhammer online

  • neonakaneonaka Member UncommonPosts: 779

    Originally posted by kraiden


    Speaking as a fan and not as media...

    I hope the majority of WoW hearted players stay in wow and hope the daoc and UO players come to WAR.  now Jeff and Matt would be pretty upset if I was saying that not as a fan, I do want whats best for their game and wish for them to topple the industry and provide me with pleanty of content. (besides I own stock in EA anyways )

     
    but as a classic pvp gamer, I want to play with other pvp gamers. its a distraction when you have people who arent the same mindset as you ruining your game play. My server when I played WoW had 5000 or so people on at primetime and I could walk around an entire night in the openfields and only get in a handful of fights. whenever I get in these fights the people usually try and run away or never come back, win or lose. My server in DAoC however would have 400 people online and 200 of them would be out in emain trying to kill eachother for 5 hours straight. and if you find a small group and fight them.... they come back with the same small group to fight you again. there was a sense of honor in daoc that dosent exist in most other games.... it was a sense of competitiveness to show you were better. ever see 2 people fighting in wow and people jump in the fight? it was common place not to jump in a fight between your realm mates and another group. . I want to see assist trains and not bunny hoping /circle straife mania in a game.
    the sense of gang honor is what I am hoping comes back and lives once again in Warhammer online

    We will have honor in pvp once again my friend. I have faith in Mythic, who IMO are the greatest MMO producers of all time (DAoC). Not so much in EA (Earth and Beyond) but luckily for us Mythic is the one making the game.

    The only thing I can see that we will have to worry about is not who comes from where, because if WAR had 1 million pvp mindset players, it will surely get another 3 million carebear, "I don't wanna die!", peace sign throwing people.

    They won't last long tho, after I gouge out their eyeballs with my thumbs and beat them to death with their own leg. They will quickly get the point of what WAR's true purpose is and head back over the rainbow to carebear land (WoW).

    Let me test out my carebear stare

  • NoNameMaddoxNoNameMaddox Member Posts: 36
    Originally posted by kraiden

    I hope the majority of WoW hearted players stay in wow and hope the daoc and UO players come to WAR.



    I agree, although we may have more than just the players to worry about. If I remember correctly, EA Games was the company that ruined UO after they took over. Hopefully we won't get the same treatment for WAR, but only time will tell.

  • BenthonBenthon Member Posts: 2,069

    The current "graphics" you see in WAR screenshots and in-game (pre-alpha!) gameplay videos that are released, are the game set on the low-medium setting for graphics, so don't say "Oh AoC graphics are so much better than Warhammer's, when WAR's true capabilities have not even been shown.

    Also, dynamic lightning and other enhancing features are not on yet.

     

    He who keeps his cool best wins.

  • elvenangelelvenangel Member Posts: 2,205

    Originally posted by NoNameMaddox

    Originally posted by kraiden

    I hope the majority of WoW hearted players stay in wow and hope the daoc and UO players come to WAR.



    I agree, although we may have more than just the players to worry about. If I remember correctly, EA Games was the company that ruined UO after they took over. Hopefully we won't get the same treatment for WAR, but only time will tell.

    EA's suffered alot of customer flack from the MMO / PC community over the years and as such their 'bottom line' has suffered from their corporate restructing of companies that merge into them. 

    I'm no EA fan infact I find their corporate work policies basically slave labor.  Luckily its supposedly changed decently since a class action lawsuit was filed on them thanks to EA Wife. 

    Ok anyway ... According to EA and Mythic both before and after the deal was finalized Mythic pretty much made sure their game was iron clad safe just like Bioware did with Mass Effect.  EA has been very up front about properly supporting Mythic and of course their reasons for the destruction of Origins (which even the guys incharge of Origins before it was dissolved years ago admited they had No idea what they were doing and destroyed the game on their own leaving EA on their own with it (EA made it worse! )   There is an article that talks with the man in charge of Origins when they got started and he gives the True story..while it doesn't save EA's face since they've continued to destroy UO..it does place the initial blames on themselves since they had no idea what they were doing)

    EA has decided to stop the corporate destruction of Game company Culture.  Every company has its own Culture and EA has finally (supposedly) seen the error in their ways and as long as the company isn't Fing up like Origins did they'll be safe.

    This being said I'm still highly skeptical and scared of what could happen.   For now I'm happy with what we know, the direction Mythic is heading with the game, and as long as there's no sudden "Trammelization" or "Gear Epix Raid" additions I'm happy and content.   When the game releases...I may actually forgive EA just a little for their past sins in the Gaming World.

    Please Refer to Doom Cat with all conspiracies & evil corporation complaints. He'll give you the simple explination of..WE"RE ALL DOOMED!

  • CelestianCelestian Member UncommonPosts: 1,136


    Originally posted by yayitsandy
    icould there be an exodus from warcraft this summer ?

    You're assuming WAR comes out this summer I guess?

    Hope so!

  • VortigonVortigon Member UncommonPosts: 723

    I was once a fan of AoC, but after seeing some of the beta footage, although the graphics are looking great the gameplay most definetly leaves me feeling emtpy and uninterested.

    Then I began looking at WAR beta footage, kind of the opposite really, the graphics were not as good but showed great potential especially when watching the couple of lighting hi-res vids kicking about, but the gameplay really has me wanting to try this game and get some FUN back into my MMO playing.

    At this stage I am looking forward to WAR and have even pre-ordered from 'Game' in the UK.

    Can't wait :)

  • xenogiasxenogias Member Posts: 1,926

    At GDC there was some mild talk of how EA has handled there games in the past and if I remember correctly they are making changes to direct the company to a brighter future. Now granted you can say your going to do this and that to make your product better, but you need to prove it.

     

    I wanted to post again here however on the topic of WoW and its possible exodus again. Never underestimate the power of friends and community. Like I said in my last post, I found a group of old guild mates from AC and while I still dont like WoW as a game I am subscribed for the time being. I log on, chat and do the occational quest with my friends. While I am not a fan of the game, I'm having fun just spending time with old friends. Thats what WAR needs. A solid community with friends reuniting from other games. You can actually overlook faults of people or games if your with friends. As an example my friends and I where killing our way to an escort quest when a lone player runs by us, starts the quest and says "Stole Motherf@(*s" Now normally I would just shake my head, remember why I hate that community and log off............. but god we had alot of fun making fun of this guy. Not to him but just between us.

    I guess what I'm saying is when the game releases MAKE FRIENDS. Help someone out. Find what looks like a good item and you cant use it? Give it to someone who can. Ask someone if they need help. All of these things can get you a new friend which makes a game that much more fun!

    Regardless of how WAR ends up turning out......be it a smash hit or just a niche game to thoes of us that love it if you have friend, and the community is pretty decent its going to be well worth our time.

  • sarnseregsarnsereg Member Posts: 40

    well, i didn't read any posts but just as a reply to the title of the post...

     

    no. there will not be. mainly because WAR won't be out this summer, but also because nothing will really touch WOW in the sense that people will stop playing it to go play a new game. most will keep playing wow even if they try out or play WAR.

  • cantjumpcantjump Member UncommonPosts: 27

    the only reason many are still playing WoW is because there is nothing better available. I hope that will change soon.

  • rpg2007rpg2007 Member Posts: 1

    World of Warcraft will survive this new MMORPG easy ive seen alot of people saying how Warhammer Online is great yet they havent played it yet, Im guessing its gonna end up like most other MMORPGs that attempt to compete with the big boys. They'll crash and burn.

  • WizGamerWizGamer Member UncommonPosts: 403
    Originally posted by elvenangel


    No offense but...most of us don't really care what happens with WoW...and ...there are some of us (not me necessarily) that hopes WoW players stay with WoW.   
    Personally I think the hardcore PvE lovers, PvE raiders, and a decent number of Blizz fans that never played MMOs before are most definitly going to stick with and be happy with WoW forever.    
    I suspect the true PvP players that have subjected themselves to WoW because there was no where else to go that they somewhat liked are likely to come over to WAR.   The ones that stay are the ones that'll grasp the Realm vs Realm concept of PvP.
    RvR's pvp is based group pvp, I think 'some' PvPers that haven't experienced anything outside of WoW might find this difficult to grasp that they have to actually group if they want to be of major use to the war effort
    I how ever don't think it'll be such a mass exodus that itll scare blizz.  They've been around for a while...and their most hardcore supporters / lovers are ... never going to give up on Blizz...maybe they'll multi sub around but they'll always have a WoW account because its Blizz and for no other reason. 
    I personally plan welcome players of any level noob or vet that works well in a team, isn't a jerk, and likes to have a good time to WAR when it releases.
    btw I think it will spur competition either way. 
    WAR is being designed around all the things WoW promised around launch but renigged on later due to bad long term techincal design. And without all the things we hate from WoW :)  Of course its RvR  based which is a different central design core than WoW all together.

    WAR should have done more to differentiate itself from other games. If Darkfall is a good game, i don't see WAR holding these pvp players. Darkfall will be the king of pvp then, WoW and EQ2 of pve, and AoC for those in between.

  • killion81killion81 Member UncommonPosts: 995

    Originally posted by WizGamer

    Originally posted by elvenangel


    No offense but...most of us don't really care what happens with WoW...and ...there are some of us (not me necessarily) that hopes WoW players stay with WoW.   
    Personally I think the hardcore PvE lovers, PvE raiders, and a decent number of Blizz fans that never played MMOs before are most definitly going to stick with and be happy with WoW forever.    
    I suspect the true PvP players that have subjected themselves to WoW because there was no where else to go that they somewhat liked are likely to come over to WAR.   The ones that stay are the ones that'll grasp the Realm vs Realm concept of PvP.
    RvR's pvp is based group pvp, I think 'some' PvPers that haven't experienced anything outside of WoW might find this difficult to grasp that they have to actually group if they want to be of major use to the war effort
    I how ever don't think it'll be such a mass exodus that itll scare blizz.  They've been around for a while...and their most hardcore supporters / lovers are ... never going to give up on Blizz...maybe they'll multi sub around but they'll always have a WoW account because its Blizz and for no other reason. 
    I personally plan welcome players of any level noob or vet that works well in a team, isn't a jerk, and likes to have a good time to WAR when it releases.
    btw I think it will spur competition either way. 
    WAR is being designed around all the things WoW promised around launch but renigged on later due to bad long term techincal design. And without all the things we hate from WoW :)  Of course its RvR  based which is a different central design core than WoW all together.

    WAR should have done more to differentiate itself from other games. If Darkfall is a good game, i don't see WAR holding these pvp players. Darkfall will be the king of pvp then, WoW and EQ2 of pve, and AoC for those in between.

    I doubt Darkfall would take WAR's player base.  Darkfall will only appeal to a niche segment of the PvP market.  The ones that enjoy full looting.  Most likely it will take the players that enjoy griefing, which would actually help both WoW and WAR.

    Besides that, it's unlikely Darkfall will ever actually release. ;)

  • xzevexzeve Member Posts: 182

    Amazing how long this post has gotten :I

    fact is, that alot of ppl playes WOW, and most of them wont leave it, because its the first MMO they have played, and used alot of time to learn. Many of them dont even use boards like this, and therefor dont hear about other MMO´s.

    Im one of many ppl who is looking forward to WAR, and i hope it will become a succes. But tbh. i dont want all the WOW people to come to it, for several reasons. to mention 1, there is alot of kids playing wow, and most of them have slight / no experience what so ever in other mmo. They will complaine about "omg its a wow clone!" oh and then is the ironbreaker just like the warrior in wow...

    I for 1 dont hope there will be an exodus from WOW !

  • SomeOldBlokeSomeOldBloke Member UncommonPosts: 2,167

    I plan on playing both for a while, to see which I prefer. I'll make my decision when WotLK is released, if it looks like it will be the same in the next WoW expansion I will probably quit WoW then as my guildies will progress and I won't.

  • AckbarNLAckbarNL Member Posts: 458
    Originally posted by rpg2007


    World of Warcraft will survive this new MMORPG easy ive seen alot of people saying how Warhammer Online is great yet they havent played it yet, Im guessing its gonna end up like most other MMORPGs that attempt to compete with the big boys. They'll crash and burn.



    Since when do Mmo's crash and burn? the only mmo i could think who did that would be SWG, the rest all did prety fine, Wow does well in salesnummers becouse its collerfull easy to start and runs on almost every computer, but it does not make it a good game for everyone.

    Playing: World of Warcraft.
    Played: Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies.
    Tried: Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.

  • toadkillertoadkiller Member Posts: 148

     

    Originally posted by AckbarNL



    Since when do Mmo's crash and burn? the only mmo i could think who did that would be SWG, the rest all did prety fine, Wow does well in salesnummers becouse its collerfull easy to start and runs on almost every computer, but it does not make it a good game for everyone.

     

    Horizons

    WWIIOnline

    Auto Assault

    One could argue Anarchy Online never achieved what it should have because of a horrifying launch (was a great game that could have had way more subs)

    Planetside

    Matrix Online

    and so on all did much worse that SWG , so not sure where you are getting your info from

     

    and as a Warhammer IP fan and beta player and so on , I can say WoW did a lot of things right , namely just made it "fun" off the bat , so it was much deeper than just being "collerfull" as a reason for success

    WAR wont crash and burn but it does have to differentiate itself enough to show a reason for a WoW player to switch , and that's not known at the moment - but the WoW hate is amusing though , seems like players always have a chip on their shoulders about some other game

     

     

  • Cabe2323Cabe2323 Member Posts: 2,939

    I would venture a guess that more then 1 million current WoW players will at least try Warhammer Online.  Now whether or not WAR can keep them is the real question. 

    WAR will definitely be the number 2 MMO though after it releases.  I see the list being something like this (I am talking western market since Asia is such a weird market to predict with their cafe style playing)

    1.  WoW - Still around 10million world wide but with a larger % in Asia where they will see continued growth.

    2.  WAR -  1 to 2 million subscribers

    3.  AoC - 500K subscribers

    4.  LOTRO - 200K-300K subscribers

    5.  EvE - 250Kish Subscribers

    That is what I guess the market will look like come this time next year. 

    Currently playing:
    LOTRO & WoW (not much WoW though because Mines of Moria rocks!!!!)

    Looking Foward too:
    Bioware games (Dragon Age & Star Wars The Old Republic)

  • TraviztyTravizty Member Posts: 114

    Reality check: North America (Canada and the United Stated) make up for a small percentage of gamers in the world. If anything will impact numbers if won't be us.

    Don't confuse a players ability, with a class being Over Powered.

    -T

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