Just face the truth people. This game has less than 200k subscriptions. There is NO WAY to spin it.
Who said it has more than 200k subs. I thought the argument here was whether or not 172k boxes sold in NA in one quarter means a failure. I know people saying that it has potential to have more subs, but no ones claiming it does. 2ook worldwide sounds about right to me, though the server I'm on has been packed the last week or so. Even getting the paked server icon showing up, all week too. Hasnt been like that in a couple months. Prolly the deals they got going on now is the reason. The only thing I can tell about the population is at Launch, having OOC chat on was impossible, 1000 people just typing out random thoughts..like "my balls itch".."think I'll scratch em" .now, I can leave it on all the time. Still alot of chatting, but they have actual conversations now. So, there has been alot of people leave IMO, but the older folks are staying and more are joining it seems. Just not enough competition on all levels for the younger crowd. I still think lotro will end up #2 in NA, and a shitload of people will have fun playing it. If not, then I hope a good game like EQ2 gets that honor, both are deserving. One is just old, and one is new. I only mention eq2 because thats what is really behind this argument. Which game is gonna be #2. (at least til WAR and AOC).
200k subs worldwide is great if you can keep growing, and is still good if ya cant. Not sure why its even a big deal. Games that have been out for years, released with even less competition are doing the same or worse. Or do people still think that The IP alone should get 500k unless the game sucks, therefore this game sucks because we assume it doesnt have 500k subs? OR is it just people stopping by to tell people who didnt say it would have a mil subs, that it doesnt or wont? I really dont see the point of the debate other than just taking guesses at sub numbers.
I also think people who play EQ2 and lotro should be on the same side here...they both give people other options than WOW, though the gameplay may not exactly, and until WOW is on the way down the hill we wont see any major gameplay changes. Just look at upcoming titles, hell just look at lotr from where it started to what it became...because of WOW. Fans of both games should be trying to get WOW fans to try something else by showing off all the good things other games can offer instead of tearing each other apart for nothing. As long as the company delivers what they promised.
See you in the dream.. The Fires from heaven, now as cold as ice. A rapid ascension tolls a heavy price.
My point in this thread is that whatever the facts are, 172k NA boxes sold in the first quarter after launch is not a big raving success...
That's the very statement I am debating. I haven't been able to find any evidence of any numbers for MMO's to compare that number to. Do you have other MMO numbers to compare that to for comparison?
I've already stated I am convinced without a doubt the 172k number is completely made up. I have no idea whether the number is too high or too low, but as you say that isn't really all that important.
What I do believe is important in this debate though is how do we know what constitutes "good" numbers of box sales and what constitutes "bad" numbers of box sales.
Without any other MMO box sales for the same time period and for the same geographic area... then how do we compare the numbers? That is the point I was trying to get at.
What was EQ1's box sales, or DAoC, or EQ2, or any MMO for that matter. Without another MMO's box sales for a similar time period and a similar geographic area... kinda pointless to speculate what is good and what is bad.
That is a reasonable argument and question and in answering that, as I did earlier, some estimations creep in. If we assume the article is accurate (another issue) and that the game sold about the same in Europe (a reasonable assumption although typically games sell around 10% more in the US than Europe unless it is something particular to Europe) then that would mean around 340,000 boxes in the first quarter post launch. Knowing the costs of developing such games, $25 to $35 million, we can estimate that LotRO probably cost around $20 to $25 million (on the lower end of the scale as they used their existing engine and reused assets from DDO). So, selling 340k or so boxes yields a gross of $17,200,000 and Turbine doesn't get all of that so it is would be well short of recouping development costs even after a quarter of sales; not disastrous but absolutely not good. Additionally, if we ignore the dollar side of things and just consider subs, with the estimated 340k box sales it is unlikely (again, based on typical scenarios) that they would have gotten more than 100k to 150k subscriptions, MMOs just don't get great initial retention no matter how good or bad they are doing. Looking at just the server count shows the estimations above to be reasonable - as a fan pointed out here there are 22 servers worldwide, that is not enough servers to support anything more than the numbers estimated above. Lastly, no matter what Turbine's traditional policy is about releasing figures if they had the big sales/sub numbers many seem to suggest they would be shouting it at the top of thier lungs as 'bandwagon' marketing is extremely effective. Turbine hasn't released numbers because they are not of the volume that would either live up to thier hype and insinuations but or generate the 'bandwagon' appeal.
So, accepting the reported number as accurate it is fairly easy to see that 172k NA box sales is not a good number. It doesn't break even on development (typically the goal of almost all games in terms of initial sales although MMOs with solid subs and good management can go on to success even if they miss that initial cost recoup). Turbine undoubtedly has quality management and I suspect they will make money on LotRO without much trouble. The issue isn't 'is LotRO a miserable failure' it is 'is LotRO the raving success Turbine and fans make it out to be' and I think that later part is absolutely false.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi
Who said it has more than 200k subs. I thought the argument here was whether or not 172k boxes sold in NA in one quarter means a failure. I know people saying that it has potential to have more subs, but no ones claiming it does.
Several people including Turbine in their ads, interviews, and general marketing portrays the game subtly and directly as being on its way to WoW-dome. I pointed in in parts of this thread where people here at MMORPG and where Turbine as made these claims. Take the most ardent opponent to my point, he said here that he presumes subs at 150k or so in US and same in Europe and that once China launches it will go to 1 million. His estimation of the US and Europe, while very high, is not so far off reasonable but in some wild leap of logic he states that Chine will push them to 1 million subs. So HE says North America and Europe are 250k to 300k subs and that China will magically be 700k subs which is ludicrous as western games traditionally do terrible in all of Asia let alone just China. It is just wild fanboy hype and hyperbole that the thread is about, not whether the game sucks or not or whether it is doing bad or great so much - just that it is not what turbine and the fanboys have bean bellowing about since before launch.
reading this thread is kinda amusing. Who the hell cares how many copies the game sold. In the end what matters is whether you, the individual, like the game or not. Bottom line is that the game is a success. It's not a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination but it is a successful MMORPG. So either you like it, or you don't. Arguing over how many people are playing it is silly at this point because we have no way of knowing. It sold a lot of boxes and it has plenty of players to be a profitable game for Turbine.
"A ship-of-war is the best ambassador." - Oliver Cromwell
reading this thread is kinda amusing. Who the hell cares how many copies the game sold. In the end what matters is whether you, the individual, like the game or not. Bottom line is that the game is a success. It's not a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination but it is a successful MMORPG. So either you like it, or you don't. Arguing over how many people are playing it is silly at this point because we have no way of knowing. It sold a lot of boxes and it has plenty of players to be a profitable game for Turbine.
Amusing, perhaps. But it is a legitimate discussion as this is a gaming (MMOs in particular) discussion board. In sports bars people argue about whether Barry Sanders or Emmit Smith was the better RB and all sorts of minutia - it is all part of being interested in a subject or genre. If it doesn't interest you then move on to another thread.
As for the rest of your comment, I pretty much agree. I suspect LotRO will be succesfull for Turbine in the end (allthoguh I tonly Turbine can really determine if it is or is not a success). Certainly it isn't in trouble like VG or goign to close up, it just isn't the big megahit it is allways made out to be by Turbine and its fans. Just like DDO before it I suspect LotRO will makes back its costs and end up with a manageable and moderate number of subs that will turn a profit over time.
Who said it has more than 200k subs. I thought the argument here was whether or not 172k boxes sold in NA in one quarter means a failure. I know people saying that it has potential to have more subs, but no ones claiming it does.
Several people including Turbine in their ads, interviews, and general marketing portrays the game subtly and directly as being on its way to WoW-dome. I pointed in in parts of this thread where people here at MMORPG and where Turbine as made these claims. Take the most ardent opponent to my point, he said here that he presumes subs at 150k or so in US and same in Europe and that once China launches it will go to 1 million. His estimation of the US and Europe, while very high, is not so far off reasonable but in some wild leap of logic he states that Chine will push them to 1 million subs. So HE says North America and Europe are 250k to 300k subs and that China will magically be 700k subs which is ludicrous as western games traditionally do terrible in all of Asia let alone just China. It is just wild fanboy hype and hyperbole that the thread is about, not whether the game sucks or not or whether it is doing bad or great so much - just that it is not what turbine and the fanboys have bean bellowing about since before launch.
So your both talking out of your ass basically. You and JAck. Who cares what Turbine says...or any company when it comes to these things. Just marketing drivel until evidence is supplied. However, This is not a Turbine complaint forum. Its for the community of lotr and people who want to discuss lotr. Are you and Jack discussing or debating anything? Can either of you provide anything that would even be considered as evidence to back up your claims? Or is it just arguing for the sake of arguing..over china..I know before I play a game, I check to see how many chinese people are playing.
You are also making some claims that there are some rabid fanboys making outrageous claims about the sucess of the game. other than Jacks best guess with no actual information that china could be a success..where and who are these fanboys you refer too..and are these delusional people in this community..in this forum? Ive been here for a while, and other than a few posts by some kids that no one paid attention too or gave any credit to, I dont know who your talking about. There must be post after post after post from these fanboys, and they must be coming from here or you would be at the forums were those posts came from..not here. Not that I really care..but you and jack could take it to PM's if your both just gonna throw posts back and forth rewording the same post you made on page one. But whatever, I can make posts telling you both that you actually have no idea, and probably never will as long as you guys wanna keep going. Im not making this post to jack because he is actually part of this community here and offers some insight into the game. you dont. You just do drive by posts taking subtle shots when the opportunity arrives. When this argument is over, you'll disappear unless some other opportunity arrives for you to make another drive by. Be honest, you could give a shit less about this game, or how it does, or about its sucess, or about its community. Your here for some other reason.
. What western games have failed in china and asia that would make you say that traditionally they fail there? Eve had 200k beta players almost instantly in china. It seems to me as along as you have a have a quality game, 200k more subs from asia is a gimme. Shit if you'd letem play on US servers you could almost guarentee 100k subs in farmers.
But whatever, keep making your case. Jack will keep making his. Niether of you are right..or wrong..or will ever know until no one cares. I would lock this thread due to lameness and arguing over wild ass guesses that cant even be debated if I were a mod. Of coarse Id have to lock every post that I ever made here as well....
To make a long post longer...either make a post with something new or start a new topic already and jerk each other around with something new.
edit for screwing up the quote.
See you in the dream.. The Fires from heaven, now as cold as ice. A rapid ascension tolls a heavy price.
reading this thread is kinda amusing. Who the hell cares how many copies the game sold. In the end what matters is whether you, the individual, like the game or not. Bottom line is that the game is a success. It's not a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination but it is a successful MMORPG. So either you like it, or you don't. Arguing over how many people are playing it is silly at this point because we have no way of knowing. It sold a lot of boxes and it has plenty of players to be a profitable game for Turbine.
Amusing, perhaps. But it is a legitimate discussion as this is a gaming (MMOs in particular) discussion board. In sports bars people argue about whether Barry Sanders or Emmit Smith was the better RB and all sorts of minutia - it is all part of being interested in a subject or genre. If it doesn't interest you then move on to another thread.
Yeah, but in a sports bar, they argue/debate until they're too drunk to talk straight, or until a fight breaks out and they're kicked out or something... and then it's over. An hour or two... tops.
This topic has been going on for 27 pages now over the course of what... a week at least? And the debate has not evolved in any meaningful way - it's the same points argued back and forth, over and over, again and again.
I keep coming back expecting that someone's had some kind of an epiphany, or produced some legitimate numbers to warrant the discussion continuing... but nope.. same argument back and forth.
The dead horse got up and walked away in utter disgust several days ago, and no one even noticed...
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
reading this thread is kinda amusing. Who the hell cares how many copies the game sold. In the end what matters is whether you, the individual, like the game or not. Bottom line is that the game is a success. It's not a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination but it is a successful MMORPG. So either you like it, or you don't. Arguing over how many people are playing it is silly at this point because we have no way of knowing. It sold a lot of boxes and it has plenty of players to be a profitable game for Turbine.
Wrong. The number of copies sold, and more importantly the number that stay on as subscribers is extremely important to determining if Joe Gamer is going to enjoy a mmol or not. Could be a great game, but if Joe spends most of his online time LFG then the game experience sucks. As it is, LOTR probably has no more than 30 or 40 K subscribers left from the initial 172K and there's a whole lot of LFG going on. Won't be long till only the radical loreheads are left.
reading this thread is kinda amusing. Who the hell cares how many copies the game sold. In the end what matters is whether you, the individual, like the game or not. Bottom line is that the game is a success. It's not a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination but it is a successful MMORPG. So either you like it, or you don't. Arguing over how many people are playing it is silly at this point because we have no way of knowing. It sold a lot of boxes and it has plenty of players to be a profitable game for Turbine.
Wrong. The number of copies sold, and more importantly the number that stay on as subscribers is extremely important to determining if Joe Gamer is going to enjoy a mmol or not. Could be a great game, but if Joe spends most of his online time LFG then the game experience sucks. As it is, LOTR probably has no more than 30 or 40 K subscribers left from the initial 172K and there's a whole lot of LFG going on. Won't be long till only the radical loreheads are left.
I would not lay awake worrying about this game if I were you. hell of a lot better population than Antonia Bayle on EQII that is for sure. And a heck of a lot easier to find groups in at any level.
In the same sense that all of use here who are not Turbine employees or otherwise affiliated with the publication and distribution of the game are talking out of our asses - yes.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi
You are also making some claims that there are some rabid fanboys making outrageous claims about the sucess of the game. other than Jacks best guess with no actual information that china could be a success..where and who are these fanboys you refer too..and are these delusional people in this community..in this forum? Ive been here for a while, and other than a few posts by some kids that no one paid attention too or gave any credit to, I dont know who your talking about. There must be post after post after post from these fanboys, and they must be coming from here or you would be at the forums were those posts came from..not here.
In this thread I quote a several such threads from here on these boards, and anyone we reads around these boards is quite familiar with the miriad of threads not even about the sub/success topic specifically where the crazed fanboy or two get in thier 'wow killer' comments. Additionally, I posted the link to Turbine's CEO making the comment about we will call you when we hit 6 million or whatnot and other comments of the sort. And others in here have commented on these things and the general viral spin that is out about LotRO being some mad runaway success.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi What western games have failed in china and asia that would make you say that traditionally they fail there? Eve had 200k beta players almost instantly in china. It seems to me as along as you have a have a quality game, 200k more subs from asia is a gimme.
What ones haven't failed/disappointed - other than WoW few Western games get attention in Asia. As for EVE Online, correct me if I am wrong but have they officially even announced 200k subs total? I know last year they announced 100k subs and that a few places estimate them at around 175k subs or so but 200k subs in Asia? That seems terribly unlikely. 200k subs is an unusual thing and by no means a gimme in any country, region, or even worldwide for ANY such MMO.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi
edit for screwing up the quote.
Try again. :-)
Look, I find the discussion interesting and aside from being annoyed and frustrated with some 'wild' claims here and there I find that for a topic of this sort it has been a fairly reasonable discussion. The great thing about board discussions is you can easily opt out of them if they do not appeal to you.
Originally posted by Jackdog I would not lay awake worrying about this game if I were you.
I agree - in fact, you would be far better served worrying about how to stay awake while playing LotRO.
HaHa, sorry - had to make that joke, J/K with ya of course. I actually do agree with your point here and find it a bit ridiculous when people post to say how they think posting in a thread isn't worth it. It is just idle conversation, I don't think to many people posting in here really give a crap one way or another in a real sense.
In the same sense that all of use here who are not Turbine employees or otherwise affiliated with the publication and distribution of the game are talking out of our asses - yes. K
In this thread I quote a several such threads from here on these boards, and anyone we reads around these boards is quite familiar with the miriad of threads not even about the sub/success topic specifically where the crazed fanboy or two get in thier 'wow killer' comments. Additionally, I posted the link to Turbine's CEO making the comment about we will call you when we hit 6 million or whatnot and other comments of the sort. And others in here have commented on these things and the general viral spin that is out about LotRO being some mad runaway success. I aslo remember a turbine dev who said their goal was to be the number 2 MMO. The 6 million thing you are taking out of context, why would you do that? I aslo said who gives a shit about what turbine says or any other company when it comes to these things. Its marketing drivel..go complain to turbine..not use it as an opportunity to attack people here in generalizations. The links you provide offer no evidence of rabid fanboys going crazy all over with wow killing posts anymore than linking this thread as evidence to the number of sales or subs lotr has. Nor does it provide you with validation to use fanboys claims as a reason that you are here or back up anything that you are posting. No one in this forum who comes here regualrly ever said that reaching wow numbers worldwide was ever even a possibilty. Sure there was talk of reaching a mil..or reaching wow's NA numbers as a possibilty. But nothing more than talk..just like this thread..no evidence..all talk..all speculation. Just like VG forums there was talk of 500-800k subs...just like DnL there was talk of 250k subs..just BS. Using BS among BS'ers as your sword is kinda lame. So is generalizing an entire community for a couple posts made by 12 year olds. You offer no evidence for anything or any statements. Your problem seems to be with the 2 or 3 children making posts and some guy at turbine .yet you include the entire lotr playerbase in your statements. You may have a problems with some game review sites and the rating and reviews they gave about what a success this game will be.Great..go laugh at them, not the entire lotr community. I have no problem with what your saying..just when you generalize over very specific instances..making this community look like they are somehow involved. keep your bs specific..got a problem with some fanboys..dont say its a problem with the lotr community or specifically avoid saying its not a problem in general. See what im saying? You wanna go NA na na na to the people who said this would ever have wow numbers..who gives a shit. Do it to the community in general..then your being an ass.
Avoiding the question. What games failed in china? Eve has 214k subs last I heard..no idea if its true, dont care. And it had 200k registered beta players, very quickly in china. no idea if its true, dont care. Never stated anything else. You seriouly dont think 200k players in all of asia likely? Basing this off what? Wow can get 5 mil, but a so called wow clone cant get 200k? I have no idea really but it seems far from unlikely. It could get 10 million or 10 for all anyone knows. I never said 200k subs was a gimme. It was a joke about 100k farmers being a gimme as long as you dont shit in a box a sell it as an online game. A joke. Now you got me dragged into making the same post over and over agian. Your good at keeping a dead horse alive..but you've still yet to actually say anything not said on page 1 or 2...and now niether have I..thanks
What ones haven't failed/disappointed - other than WoW few Western games get attention in Asia. As for EVE Online, correct me if I am wrong but have they officially even announced 200k subs total? I know last year they announced 100k subs and that a few places estimate them at around 175k subs or so but 200k subs in Asia? That seems terribly unlikely. 200k subs is an unusual thing and by no means a gimme in any country, region, or even worldwide for ANY such MMO.
Try again. :-)
Look, I find the discussion interesting and aside from being annoyed and frustrated with some 'wild' claims here and there I find that for a topic of this sort it has been a fairly reasonable discussion. The great thing about board discussions is you can easily opt out of them if they do not appeal to you.
Originally posted by Jackdog I would not lay awake worrying about this game if I were you.
I agree - in fact, you would be far better served worrying about how to stay awake while playing LotRO.
HaHa, sorry - had to make that joke, J/K with ya of course. I actually do agree with your point here and find it a bit ridiculous when people post to say how they think posting in a thread isn't worth it. It is just idle conversation, I don't think to many people posting in here really give a crap one way or another in a real sense.
No one gives a crap that your posting, its all of us me included now just making posts at each other, like somehow one of us will go OK..I was mistaken here..LOL. That isnt going to happen because we're all full of shit anyway, and probalby all wrong. I think we can agree there..so how about adding something new or start a new topic or something where we can actually debate something other than who wild ass guess is better for 50 pages. But whatever..im in it now so ill keep on making the same posts as long as you guys do.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi
edit for screwing up the quote.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi What western games have failed in china and asia that would make you say that traditionally they fail there? Eve had 200k beta players almost instantly in china. It seems to me as along as you have a have a quality game, 200k more subs from asia is a gimme.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi
You are also making some claims that there are some rabid fanboys making outrageous claims about the sucess of the game. other than Jacks best guess with no actual information that china could be a success..where and who are these fanboys you refer too..and are these delusional people in this community..in this forum? Ive been here for a while, and other than a few posts by some kids that no one paid attention too or gave any credit to, I dont know who your talking about. There must be post after post after post from these fanboys, and they must be coming from here or you would be at the forums were those posts came from..not here.
See you in the dream.. The Fires from heaven, now as cold as ice. A rapid ascension tolls a heavy price.
HaHa, sorry - had to make that joke, J/K with ya of course. I actually do agree with your point here and find it a bit ridiculous when people post to say how they think posting in a thread isn't worth it. It is just idle conversation, I don't think to many people posting in here really give a crap one way or another in a real sense.
AgtSmith,
I don't think making any post isn't "worth it" unless, as in this case, it's the same exact comments going back and forth, constantly, for 27 straight pages. It is not idle conversation at that point. It's far beyond that and has turned into something of an obsession. Or a severe case of OCD.
Someone was refraining a comment about you in an earlier post, basically summing up all your comments with the whole "They must eat crow!" comment... And, I really am beginning to wonder if that's not your goal here. Waiting for someone to step forth and say "You were right. We were wrong"
I don't think it's "idle chatter" to you at this point. I'd have believed that about 25 or 26 pages ago... but not at this point. What is it you're trying to accomplish by posting the same counter-arguments over and over again? You don't like the game. You don't think its numbers are an indication of a successful launch and you have doubts that it would ever see 1million subscribers. I think everyone here realizes that by now. So what is it you're fishing for?
Everyone has acknowledged that the numbers thrown around here aren't reliable. Everyone's pretty much acknowledged that they're not a good basis for debate. So why is everyone still debating?
What exactly are you trying to accomplish here?
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
HaHa, sorry - had to make that joke, J/K with ya of course. I actually do agree with your point here and find it a bit ridiculous when people post to say how they think posting in a thread isn't worth it. It is just idle conversation, I don't think to many people posting in here really give a crap one way or another in a real sense.
AgtSmith,
I don't think making any post isn't "worth it" unless, as in this case, it's the same exact comments going back and forth, constantly, for 27 straight pages. It is not idle conversation at that point. It's far beyond that and has turned into something of an obsession. Or a severe case of OCD.
Someone was refraining a comment about you in an earlier post, basically summing up all your comments with the whole "They must eat crow!" comment... And, I really am beginning to wonder if that's not your goal here. Waiting for someone to step forth and say "You were right. We were wrong"
I don't think it's "idle chatter" to you at this point. I'd have believed that about 25 or 26 pages ago... but not at this point. What is it you're trying to accomplish by posting the same counter-arguments over and over again? You don't like the game. You don't think its numbers are an indication of a successful launch and you have doubts that it would ever see 1million subscribers. I think everyone here realizes that by now. So what is it you're fishing for?
Everyone has acknowledged that the numbers thrown around here aren't reliable. Everyone's pretty much acknowledged that they're not a good basis for debate. So why is everyone still debating?
What exactly are you trying to accomplish here?
As I wrote in a post earlier: never seen a grown man stuck on a rubberbone so hard in my life. (except for politicians of course
Luckily, at least he can argue (?) politely, if we kindly forget the childish extrapolation of the very very few fanboi overstatements to the whole lotro community, that he likes to do once in a while... the rest of his chanting is quite civilized in general.
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
As I wrote in a post earlier: never seen a grown man stuck on a rubberbone so hard in my life. (except for politicians of course
Luckily, at least he can argue (?) politely, if we kindly forget the childish extrapolation of the very very few fanboi overstatements to the whole lotro community, that he likes to do once in a while... the rest of his chanting is quite civilized in general. DB
Oh I agree. I've even concurred with AgtSmith on other threads. He's an articulate and well-spoken guy who can make a point in a concise manner. Which, frankly, makes his persistence in arguing the same points for this long in this thread all the more perplexing to me. It's like this game hits a nerve with him that he just can't let go of.
Sure, everyone else is counter-arguing their points, too.. but at least in the case of people who enjoy LoTRO (Jackdog and others) their defense of the game is understandable... They're defending a game they enjoy playing in a forum specifically for that game. So, while neither side has any kind of concrete information to back up any claims of numbers or figures, at least the pro-LoTRO folks have a personal interest in what they're debating. I don't see where AgtSmith does, as he obviously doesn't like the game and isn't playing it anyway.
So, it begs the question... After 27 pages, is there a point in all this, and is it ever going to be reached?
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
As I wrote in a post earlier: never seen a grown man stuck on a rubberbone so hard in my life. (except for politicians of course
Luckily, at least he can argue (?) politely, if we kindly forget the childish extrapolation of the very very few fanboi overstatements to the whole lotro community, that he likes to do once in a while... the rest of his chanting is quite civilized in general. DB
Oh I agree. I've even concurred with AgtSmith on other threads. He's an articulate and well-spoken guy who can make a point in a concise manner. Which, frankly, makes his persistence in arguing the same points for this long in this thread all the more perplexing to me. It's like this game hits a nerve with him that he just can't let go of.
Sure, everyone else is counter-arguing their points, too.. but at least in the case of people who enjoy LoTRO (Jackdog and others) their defense of the game is understandable... They're defending a game they enjoy playing in a forum specifically for that game. So, while neither side has any kind of concrete information to back up any claims of numbers or figures, at least the pro-LoTRO folks have a personal interest in what they're debating. I don't see where AgtSmith does, as he obviously doesn't like the game and isn't playing it anyway.
So, it begs the question... After 27 pages, is there a point in all this, and is it ever going to be reached?
Yeah, there is a point, and I have also written it down in this topic.
There is no way I could care less about how many copies the game has sold as long as:
1, Expansion are coming regulary
2, From the patch notes I can really see that the devs are actually listening to the community
3, I have no problems finding a group, even with my low toons on the very first EU server (Snowbourn).
The first 2 points prove that the devs are happy, therefore the game IS successful. The 3rd point means that I can enjoy the game in any way I'd like to.
What else should I care about?
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
As I wrote in a post earlier: never seen a grown man stuck on a rubberbone so hard in my life. (except for politicians of course
Luckily, at least he can argue (?) politely, if we kindly forget the childish extrapolation of the very very few fanboi overstatements to the whole lotro community, that he likes to do once in a while... the rest of his chanting is quite civilized in general. DB
Oh I agree. I've even concurred with AgtSmith on other threads. He's an articulate and well-spoken guy who can make a point in a concise manner. Which, frankly, makes his persistence in arguing the same points for this long in this thread all the more perplexing to me. It's like this game hits a nerve with him that he just can't let go of.
Sure, everyone else is counter-arguing their points, too.. but at least in the case of people who enjoy LoTRO (Jackdog and others) their defense of the game is understandable... They're defending a game they enjoy playing in a forum specifically for that game. So, while neither side has any kind of concrete information to back up any claims of numbers or figures, at least the pro-LoTRO folks have a personal interest in what they're debating. I don't see where AgtSmith does, as he obviously doesn't like the game and isn't playing it anyway.
So, it begs the question... After 27 pages, is there a point in all this, and is it ever going to be reached?
Yeah, there is a point, and I have also written it down in this topic.
There is no way I could care less about how many copies the game has sold as long as:
1, Expansion are coming regulary
2, From the patch notes I can really see that the devs are actually listening to the community
3, I have no problems finding a group, even with my low toons on the very first EU server (Snowbourn).
The first 2 points prove that the devs are happy, therefore the game IS successful. The 3rd point means that I can enjoy the game in any way I'd like to.
What else should I care about?
DB
Same... With the exception of the other night, when I was lff for a quest and no one was responding... I soon realized it's because I'm still about 8 or 9 levels shy of the ideal level for the quest (it cons as purple to me) and really no one would be looking for someone my level to do it. Outside of that, when I send a lff out, it's answered - usually by several people - within a minute or so.
I've said before, when you start getting into 10s of thousands, nevermind 100s of thousands, of people playing the game overall, it becomes an abstraction. You're only ever going to be directly interacting with a small fraction of that at any given time, and only on your own server, so... Does it really matter if there's 100k, 200k or 1,000,000? Is that really going affect how much you and the 30 people in your Kinship, or the 6 people in your fellowship are enjoying the game?
I think it really does boil down to a popularity contest for some people. It's not enough for some to simply play the game because they enjoy it. They need to feel that they're playing the "better MMO"... or not playing "the sucky MMO", and seeing a "competing" game not do really well (even if only in their own mind) somehow satisfies that, I guess. I don't think that's necessarily the case with AgtSmith... again.. I don't know what he's driving at here... but it's certain so with many, many others.
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
That is a reasonable argument and question and in answering that, as I did earlier, some estimations creep in. (And another word for estimation is assumption... and we all know how the acronym for assume works... right?) If we assume the article is accurate (another issue) and that the game sold about the same in Europe (a reasonable assumption although typically games sell around 10% more in the US than Europe unless it is something particular to Europe) (Reasonable assumption according to who? Well, since games "typically" sell around 10% more in US ... then it should be easy to show a few links that support that. See, that's what I'm trying to work on here... It would be nice to see some links that actually support these "typically" and "assume" and "estimation" phrases. Otherwise, this thread hasn't progressed past the first sentence in the first post.) then that would mean around 340,000 boxes in the first quarter post launch. (Well, now we have an assumed number added to another assumed number... the result doesn't add up to something closer to fact... just the opposite... the more assumptions you add together... get you further from fact) Knowing the costs of developing such games, $25 to $35 million,we can estimate that LotRO probably cost around $20 to $25 million (on the lower end of the scale as they used their existing engine and reused assets from DDO). (Umm... no, we don't "know the costs of developing such games" So, this would be another assumption then. There have been figures thrown around on various web forums, but have you ever seen anything official? if we're trying to cut down the spin... a simple link or two to show exactly how you "know" the costs... that would be great! Oh, and if you can find some links... would be great to see how you know what is considered the "lower end of the scale" as well). So, selling 340k or so boxes yields a gross of $17,200,000 and Turbine doesn't get all of that so it is would be well short of recouping development costs even after a quarter of sales; not disastrous but absolutely not good. (Yup, they aren't close to recouping the development costs won't argue that... but since we don't know the boxes sold, the costs of development, the percentage they get per box sold, or anything even related to it for that matter... it adds up to not knowing jack. What might have been better for you to include in this segment is something showing us how long it takes a successful MMO to recoup it's development costs... Heck, I'd have even settled for a link showing just how much a "successful MMO" costs). Additionally, if we ignore the dollar side of things and just consider subs, with the estimated 340k box sales (Heh, so you're willing to ignore the made up dollar amounts... but not the made up box sales? Why not stick with the one number we know is correct? That actually is a dollar amount... it's Midway's $10 million they made in the quarter that LoTRo came out. That's where all these other assumed numbers are originating... heh, seems a bit funny to not at least use the one factual number in all your other estimated, assumed, and typical numbers). it is unlikely (again, based on typical scenarios) (Again, if it's "typical" wouldn't it be fairly easy to show us a few links as to why you think it is considered "typical" "Typical" by who's standards)? that they would have gotten more than 100k to 150k subscriptions, MMOs just don't get great initial retention no matter how good or bad they are doing. (Again, with an assumed number derived from an assumed number. You do realize that the sum of such numbers is worth about as much as... well, I can't even think of what they would be worth... spit, comes to mind). Looking at just the server count shows the estimations above to be reasonable - as a fan pointed out here there are 22 servers worldwide, that is not enough servers to support anything more than the numbers estimated above. (Ahh... here we may at least stand a chance of getting somewhere. The first number in the whole post that is actually based in reality. Yes, 22 is a verifiable number of servers for NA and Europe. This link shows NA servers: forums.lotro.com/(Each server has a forum... easiest way to verify without a screenshot) (The Roheryn sever is a Testserver... so doesn't really count) This link shows the European servers: community.codemasters.com/forum/forumdisplay.php (Each server has a forum... easiest way to verify without a screenshot) So, now if we had a way to find out, or a link of some-kind to show what would be subscriptions assigned to each server. Sorry, I'm not real big on your "estimated" numbers. I'd prefer a few links from industry experts or independent analysts). This link has a good article by Raph Koster about how subs. are measured and determined: www.raphkoster.com/2006/06/01/measuring-mmos/
Lastly, no matter what Turbine's traditional policy is about releasing figures if they had the big sales/sub numbers many seem to suggest they would be shouting it at the top of thier lungs as 'bandwagon' marketing is extremely effective. Turbine hasn't released numbers because they are not of the volume that would either live up to thier hype and insinuations but or generate the 'bandwagon' appeal. (Heh, nope... try again. Just because you say: " Turbine hasn't released numbers because they are not of the volume..." doesn't make it any more factual. It's just one more assumption. So, it'll have to go into the same category as all the others.)
So, accepting the reported number as accurate it is fairly easy to see that 172k NA box sales is not a good number. (Umm... how did you reach that conclusion? You'd have to "accept" a lot more than just the assumed number. See all the above red paragraphs for other assumption, estimates. Remember, until we have a yardstick of other box sales (besides WoW) to compare it to, its just that... a number.) It doesn't break even on development (typically the goal of almost all games in terms of initial sales although MMOs with solid subs and good management can go on to success even if they miss that initial cost recoup). (Again with the "typically" statement... you know, for a person that likes to cut down on the SPIN... you sure throw out a lot of unverified and unverifiable numbers and statements. Just once it would be nice if you backed up some of this with links to something that verifies your statements). Turbine undoubtedly has quality management and I suspect they will make money on LotRO without much trouble. The issue isn't 'is LotRO a miserable failure' it is 'is LotRO the raving success Turbine and fans make it out to be' and I think that later part is absolutely false. (And that is a valid OPINION for you to have. Just like fans of the game can have the OPINION that it is a success. Until we can see something that isn't just an assumption, estimate, or whatever... that's all we have... OPINION).
O.k. well... at the risk of angering even more people for be-laboring this point... I'm going to try again with AgtSmith. The points I question the validity of are in red in your quoted response.
Turbine undoubtedly has quality management and I suspect they will make money on LotRO without much trouble. The issue isn't 'is LotRO a miserable failure' it is 'is LotRO the raving success Turbine and fans make it out to be' and I think that later part is absolutely false. (And that is a valid OPINION for you to have. Just like fans of the game can have the OPINION that it is a success. Until we can see something that isn't just an assumption, estimate, or whatever... that's all we have... OPINION). And I still maintain (not dismissing nor addressing your post, dragon)... Who the hell cares? Seriously. Even if it isn't a "raving success" by any standards... Okay... so what? Is it going to stop anyone who enjoys it from playing? No. Is it going to make anyone who doesn't like it start playing? Probably not. Does someone win a prize? Does AgtSmith have an expensive dinner, or some prize riding on the outcome of this? Are people in some part of the world going to die based on who's right or wrong? I do not understand why this all warrants 28 pages of hypothetical back-and-forth that neither side can prove nor disprove. "Theoretically, if you go by my assumed typical, unconfirmed numbers, the game is not a raving success"
"Hypothetically, if you go by my theoretical, assumed, unconfirmed figures... the game is a raving success"
"Hypothetically.. in theory... regardless of whose numbers are right or wrong... What the hell does it matter either way?"
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Who the hell cares? Seriously. Even if it isn't a "raving success" by any standards... Okay... so what? Is it going to stop anyone who enjoys it from playing? No. Is it going to make anyone who doesn't like it start playing? Probably not. Does someone win a prize? Does AgtSmith have an expensive dinner, or some prize riding on the outcome of this? Are people in some part of the world going to die based on who's right or wrong? I do not understand why this all warrants 28 pages of hypothetical back-and-forth that neither side can prove nor disprove. "Theoretically, if you go by my assumed typical, unconfirmed numbers, the game is not a raving success"
"Hypothetically, if you go by my theoretical, assumed, unconfirmed figures... the game is a raving success"
"Hypothetically.. in theory... regardless of whose numbers are right or wrong... What the hell does it matter either way?"
I've stayed out of this thread since making my one post a week ago just so as to not feed this madness any longer. While I have enjoyed watching this thread unfold in the macabre way that one might be fascinated by a train wreck or a burning building, I concur utterly.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
Turbine undoubtedly has quality management and I suspect they will make money on LotRO without much trouble. The issue isn't 'is LotRO a miserable failure' it is 'is LotRO the raving success Turbine and fans make it out to be' and I think that later part is absolutely false. (And that is a valid OPINION for you to have. Just like fans of the game can have the OPINION that it is a success. Until we can see something that isn't just an assumption, estimate, or whatever... that's all we have... OPINION). And I still maintain (not dismissing nor addressing your post, dragon)... Who the hell cares? Seriously. Even if it isn't a "raving success" by any standards... Okay... so what? Is it going to stop anyone who enjoys it from playing? No. Is it going to make anyone who doesn't like it start playing? Probably not. Does someone win a prize? Does AgtSmith have an expensive dinner, or some prize riding on the outcome of this? Are people in some part of the world going to die based on who's right or wrong? I do not understand why this all warrants 28 pages of hypothetical back-and-forth that neither side can prove nor disprove. "Theoretically, if you go by my assumed typical, unconfirmed numbers, the game is not a raving success"
"Hypothetically, if you go by my theoretical, assumed, unconfirmed figures... the game is a raving success"
"Hypothetically.. in theory... regardless of whose numbers are right or wrong... What the hell does it matter either way?"
Heh... not disagreeing with you. In fact, I agree. But, then this is a forum where we post our opinions... so, if we weren't posting here... then it would be some other pointless post. At least this thread has had a modicum of civility to it... so it's as good as any to respond to. And, you must concur at least on some level; otherwise why respond with a post saying you don't care... unless you do?
What ones haven't failed/disappointed - other than WoW few Western games get attention in Asia. As for EVE Online, correct me if I am wrong but have they officially even announced 200k subs total?
Att CCP's 10th Anniversary Celebration in Iceland on June 3rd, CEO Hilmar Pétursson gave a presentation in which he announced that EVE surpassed 200,000 subscribers.
-- Whammy - a 64x64 miniRPG - RPG Quiz - can you get all 25 right? - FPS Quiz - how well do you know your shooters?
The game is doing pretty well in this post-WoW, WoW-dominated mmorpg world. LotRO clearly has a nice market niche that the upcoming PvP games dont overlap much with. Its not a game that appeals to everyone - indeed, I am a big LotRO fan but I would advise hardcore players and PvP types to look elsewhere - but to the people it DOES appeal to (casual players, solo players, roleplayers, Tolkien fans, players who value the story and the quests over the xp/loot grind, etc), it has a very strong appeal.
So LOTRO should do fine. Which is saying quite a bit because there havent been a lot of successes in the mmorpg world since WoW came out. Some older games have fallen by the wayside, and some new games have failed, so its nice to see a new game out there that has a solid release and a solid (if unspectacular) number of customers.
The game is doing pretty well in this post-WoW, WoW-dominated mmorpg world. LotRO clearly has a nice market niche that the upcoming PvP games dont overlap much with. Its not a game that appeals to everyone - indeed, I am a big LotRO fan but I would advise hardcore players and PvP types to look elsewhere - but to the people it DOES appeal to (casual players, solo players, roleplayers, Tolkien fans, players who value the story and the quests over the xp/loot grind, etc), it has a very strong appeal. So LOTRO should do fine. Which is saying quite a bit because there havent been a lot of successes in the mmorpg world since WoW came out. Some older games have fallen by the wayside, and some new games have failed, so its nice to see a new game out there that has a solid release and a solid (if unspectacular) number of customers.
Comments
I stick by my prediction of 200-250k subs within the first year. A good solid number by MMO standards.
Who said it has more than 200k subs. I thought the argument here was whether or not 172k boxes sold in NA in one quarter means a failure. I know people saying that it has potential to have more subs, but no ones claiming it does. 2ook worldwide sounds about right to me, though the server I'm on has been packed the last week or so. Even getting the paked server icon showing up, all week too. Hasnt been like that in a couple months. Prolly the deals they got going on now is the reason. The only thing I can tell about the population is at Launch, having OOC chat on was impossible, 1000 people just typing out random thoughts..like "my balls itch".."think I'll scratch em" .now, I can leave it on all the time. Still alot of chatting, but they have actual conversations now. So, there has been alot of people leave IMO, but the older folks are staying and more are joining it seems. Just not enough competition on all levels for the younger crowd. I still think lotro will end up #2 in NA, and a shitload of people will have fun playing it. If not, then I hope a good game like EQ2 gets that honor, both are deserving. One is just old, and one is new. I only mention eq2 because thats what is really behind this argument. Which game is gonna be #2. (at least til WAR and AOC).
200k subs worldwide is great if you can keep growing, and is still good if ya cant. Not sure why its even a big deal. Games that have been out for years, released with even less competition are doing the same or worse. Or do people still think that The IP alone should get 500k unless the game sucks, therefore this game sucks because we assume it doesnt have 500k subs? OR is it just people stopping by to tell people who didnt say it would have a mil subs, that it doesnt or wont? I really dont see the point of the debate other than just taking guesses at sub numbers.
I also think people who play EQ2 and lotro should be on the same side here...they both give people other options than WOW, though the gameplay may not exactly, and until WOW is on the way down the hill we wont see any major gameplay changes. Just look at upcoming titles, hell just look at lotr from where it started to what it became...because of WOW. Fans of both games should be trying to get WOW fans to try something else by showing off all the good things other games can offer instead of tearing each other apart for nothing. As long as the company delivers what they promised.
See you in the dream..
The Fires from heaven, now as cold as ice. A rapid ascension tolls a heavy price.
That's the very statement I am debating. I haven't been able to find any evidence of any numbers for MMO's to compare that number to. Do you have other MMO numbers to compare that to for comparison?I've already stated I am convinced without a doubt the 172k number is completely made up. I have no idea whether the number is too high or too low, but as you say that isn't really all that important.
What I do believe is important in this debate though is how do we know what constitutes "good" numbers of box sales and what constitutes "bad" numbers of box sales.
Without any other MMO box sales for the same time period and for the same geographic area... then how do we compare the numbers? That is the point I was trying to get at.
What was EQ1's box sales, or DAoC, or EQ2, or any MMO for that matter. Without another MMO's box sales for a similar time period and a similar geographic area... kinda pointless to speculate what is good and what is bad.
That is a reasonable argument and question and in answering that, as I did earlier, some estimations creep in. If we assume the article is accurate (another issue) and that the game sold about the same in Europe (a reasonable assumption although typically games sell around 10% more in the US than Europe unless it is something particular to Europe) then that would mean around 340,000 boxes in the first quarter post launch. Knowing the costs of developing such games, $25 to $35 million, we can estimate that LotRO probably cost around $20 to $25 million (on the lower end of the scale as they used their existing engine and reused assets from DDO). So, selling 340k or so boxes yields a gross of $17,200,000 and Turbine doesn't get all of that so it is would be well short of recouping development costs even after a quarter of sales; not disastrous but absolutely not good. Additionally, if we ignore the dollar side of things and just consider subs, with the estimated 340k box sales it is unlikely (again, based on typical scenarios) that they would have gotten more than 100k to 150k subscriptions, MMOs just don't get great initial retention no matter how good or bad they are doing. Looking at just the server count shows the estimations above to be reasonable - as a fan pointed out here there are 22 servers worldwide, that is not enough servers to support anything more than the numbers estimated above. Lastly, no matter what Turbine's traditional policy is about releasing figures if they had the big sales/sub numbers many seem to suggest they would be shouting it at the top of thier lungs as 'bandwagon' marketing is extremely effective. Turbine hasn't released numbers because they are not of the volume that would either live up to thier hype and insinuations but or generate the 'bandwagon' appeal.
So, accepting the reported number as accurate it is fairly easy to see that 172k NA box sales is not a good number. It doesn't break even on development (typically the goal of almost all games in terms of initial sales although MMOs with solid subs and good management can go on to success even if they miss that initial cost recoup). Turbine undoubtedly has quality management and I suspect they will make money on LotRO without much trouble. The issue isn't 'is LotRO a miserable failure' it is 'is LotRO the raving success Turbine and fans make it out to be' and I think that later part is absolutely false.
Several people including Turbine in their ads, interviews, and general marketing portrays the game subtly and directly as being on its way to WoW-dome. I pointed in in parts of this thread where people here at MMORPG and where Turbine as made these claims. Take the most ardent opponent to my point, he said here that he presumes subs at 150k or so in US and same in Europe and that once China launches it will go to 1 million. His estimation of the US and Europe, while very high, is not so far off reasonable but in some wild leap of logic he states that Chine will push them to 1 million subs. So HE says North America and Europe are 250k to 300k subs and that China will magically be 700k subs which is ludicrous as western games traditionally do terrible in all of Asia let alone just China. It is just wild fanboy hype and hyperbole that the thread is about, not whether the game sucks or not or whether it is doing bad or great so much - just that it is not what turbine and the fanboys have bean bellowing about since before launch.
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reading this thread is kinda amusing. Who the hell cares how many copies the game sold. In the end what matters is whether you, the individual, like the game or not. Bottom line is that the game is a success. It's not a blockbuster by any stretch of the imagination but it is a successful MMORPG. So either you like it, or you don't. Arguing over how many people are playing it is silly at this point because we have no way of knowing. It sold a lot of boxes and it has plenty of players to be a profitable game for Turbine.
"A ship-of-war is the best ambassador." - Oliver Cromwell
Ooops, ignore this.
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Amusing, perhaps. But it is a legitimate discussion as this is a gaming (MMOs in particular) discussion board. In sports bars people argue about whether Barry Sanders or Emmit Smith was the better RB and all sorts of minutia - it is all part of being interested in a subject or genre. If it doesn't interest you then move on to another thread.
As for the rest of your comment, I pretty much agree. I suspect LotRO will be succesfull for Turbine in the end (allthoguh I tonly Turbine can really determine if it is or is not a success). Certainly it isn't in trouble like VG or goign to close up, it just isn't the big megahit it is allways made out to be by Turbine and its fans. Just like DDO before it I suspect LotRO will makes back its costs and end up with a manageable and moderate number of subs that will turn a profit over time.
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Several people including Turbine in their ads, interviews, and general marketing portrays the game subtly and directly as being on its way to WoW-dome. I pointed in in parts of this thread where people here at MMORPG and where Turbine as made these claims. Take the most ardent opponent to my point, he said here that he presumes subs at 150k or so in US and same in Europe and that once China launches it will go to 1 million. His estimation of the US and Europe, while very high, is not so far off reasonable but in some wild leap of logic he states that Chine will push them to 1 million subs. So HE says North America and Europe are 250k to 300k subs and that China will magically be 700k subs which is ludicrous as western games traditionally do terrible in all of Asia let alone just China. It is just wild fanboy hype and hyperbole that the thread is about, not whether the game sucks or not or whether it is doing bad or great so much - just that it is not what turbine and the fanboys have bean bellowing about since before launch.
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So your both talking out of your ass basically. You and JAck. Who cares what Turbine says...or any company when it comes to these things. Just marketing drivel until evidence is supplied. However, This is not a Turbine complaint forum. Its for the community of lotr and people who want to discuss lotr. Are you and Jack discussing or debating anything? Can either of you provide anything that would even be considered as evidence to back up your claims? Or is it just arguing for the sake of arguing..over china..I know before I play a game, I check to see how many chinese people are playing.
You are also making some claims that there are some rabid fanboys making outrageous claims about the sucess of the game. other than Jacks best guess with no actual information that china could be a success..where and who are these fanboys you refer too..and are these delusional people in this community..in this forum? Ive been here for a while, and other than a few posts by some kids that no one paid attention too or gave any credit to, I dont know who your talking about. There must be post after post after post from these fanboys, and they must be coming from here or you would be at the forums were those posts came from..not here. Not that I really care..but you and jack could take it to PM's if your both just gonna throw posts back and forth rewording the same post you made on page one. But whatever, I can make posts telling you both that you actually have no idea, and probably never will as long as you guys wanna keep going. Im not making this post to jack because he is actually part of this community here and offers some insight into the game. you dont. You just do drive by posts taking subtle shots when the opportunity arrives. When this argument is over, you'll disappear unless some other opportunity arrives for you to make another drive by. Be honest, you could give a shit less about this game, or how it does, or about its sucess, or about its community. Your here for some other reason.
. What western games have failed in china and asia that would make you say that traditionally they fail there? Eve had 200k beta players almost instantly in china. It seems to me as along as you have a have a quality game, 200k more subs from asia is a gimme. Shit if you'd letem play on US servers you could almost guarentee 100k subs in farmers.
But whatever, keep making your case. Jack will keep making his. Niether of you are right..or wrong..or will ever know until no one cares. I would lock this thread due to lameness and arguing over wild ass guesses that cant even be debated if I were a mod. Of coarse Id have to lock every post that I ever made here as well....
To make a long post longer...either make a post with something new or start a new topic already and jerk each other around with something new.
edit for screwing up the quote.
See you in the dream..
The Fires from heaven, now as cold as ice. A rapid ascension tolls a heavy price.
Amusing, perhaps. But it is a legitimate discussion as this is a gaming (MMOs in particular) discussion board. In sports bars people argue about whether Barry Sanders or Emmit Smith was the better RB and all sorts of minutia - it is all part of being interested in a subject or genre. If it doesn't interest you then move on to another thread.
Yeah, but in a sports bar, they argue/debate until they're too drunk to talk straight, or until a fight breaks out and they're kicked out or something... and then it's over. An hour or two... tops.
This topic has been going on for 27 pages now over the course of what... a week at least? And the debate has not evolved in any meaningful way - it's the same points argued back and forth, over and over, again and again.
I keep coming back expecting that someone's had some kind of an epiphany, or produced some legitimate numbers to warrant the discussion continuing... but nope.. same argument back and forth.
The dead horse got up and walked away in utter disgust several days ago, and no one even noticed...
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
hey at least I know I am talking out my ass, I think some people in the thread really think they are being profound or some shit
I miss DAoC
Wrong. The number of copies sold, and more importantly the number that stay on as subscribers is extremely important to determining if Joe Gamer is going to enjoy a mmol or not. Could be a great game, but if Joe spends most of his online time LFG then the game experience sucks. As it is, LOTR probably has no more than 30 or 40 K subscribers left from the initial 172K and there's a whole lot of LFG going on. Won't be long till only the radical loreheads are left.
Wrong. The number of copies sold, and more importantly the number that stay on as subscribers is extremely important to determining if Joe Gamer is going to enjoy a mmol or not. Could be a great game, but if Joe spends most of his online time LFG then the game experience sucks. As it is, LOTR probably has no more than 30 or 40 K subscribers left from the initial 172K and there's a whole lot of LFG going on. Won't be long till only the radical loreheads are left.
I would not lay awake worrying about this game if I were you. hell of a lot better population than Antonia Bayle on EQII that is for sure. And a heck of a lot easier to find groups in at any level.
I miss DAoC
In the same sense that all of use here who are not Turbine employees or otherwise affiliated with the publication and distribution of the game are talking out of our asses - yes.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi
You are also making some claims that there are some rabid fanboys making outrageous claims about the sucess of the game. other than Jacks best guess with no actual information that china could be a success..where and who are these fanboys you refer too..and are these delusional people in this community..in this forum? Ive been here for a while, and other than a few posts by some kids that no one paid attention too or gave any credit to, I dont know who your talking about. There must be post after post after post from these fanboys, and they must be coming from here or you would be at the forums were those posts came from..not here.
In this thread I quote a several such threads from here on these boards, and anyone we reads around these boards is quite familiar with the miriad of threads not even about the sub/success topic specifically where the crazed fanboy or two get in thier 'wow killer' comments. Additionally, I posted the link to Turbine's CEO making the comment about we will call you when we hit 6 million or whatnot and other comments of the sort. And others in here have commented on these things and the general viral spin that is out about LotRO being some mad runaway success.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi
What western games have failed in china and asia that would make you say that traditionally they fail there? Eve had 200k beta players almost instantly in china. It seems to me as along as you have a have a quality game, 200k more subs from asia is a gimme.
What ones haven't failed/disappointed - other than WoW few Western games get attention in Asia. As for EVE Online, correct me if I am wrong but have they officially even announced 200k subs total? I know last year they announced 100k subs and that a few places estimate them at around 175k subs or so but 200k subs in Asia? That seems terribly unlikely. 200k subs is an unusual thing and by no means a gimme in any country, region, or even worldwide for ANY such MMO.
Originally posted by FikusOfAhazi
edit for screwing up the quote.
Try again. :-)
Look, I find the discussion interesting and aside from being annoyed and frustrated with some 'wild' claims here and there I find that for a topic of this sort it has been a fairly reasonable discussion. The great thing about board discussions is you can easily opt out of them if they do not appeal to you.
I agree - in fact, you would be far better served worrying about how to stay awake while playing LotRO.
HaHa, sorry - had to make that joke, J/K with ya of course. I actually do agree with your point here and find it a bit ridiculous when people post to say how they think posting in a thread isn't worth it. It is just idle conversation, I don't think to many people posting in here really give a crap one way or another in a real sense.
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In the same sense that all of use here who are not Turbine employees or otherwise affiliated with the publication and distribution of the game are talking out of our asses - yes. K
In this thread I quote a several such threads from here on these boards, and anyone we reads around these boards is quite familiar with the miriad of threads not even about the sub/success topic specifically where the crazed fanboy or two get in thier 'wow killer' comments. Additionally, I posted the link to Turbine's CEO making the comment about we will call you when we hit 6 million or whatnot and other comments of the sort. And others in here have commented on these things and the general viral spin that is out about LotRO being some mad runaway success. I aslo remember a turbine dev who said their goal was to be the number 2 MMO. The 6 million thing you are taking out of context, why would you do that? I aslo said who gives a shit about what turbine says or any other company when it comes to these things. Its marketing drivel..go complain to turbine..not use it as an opportunity to attack people here in generalizations. The links you provide offer no evidence of rabid fanboys going crazy all over with wow killing posts anymore than linking this thread as evidence to the number of sales or subs lotr has. Nor does it provide you with validation to use fanboys claims as a reason that you are here or back up anything that you are posting. No one in this forum who comes here regualrly ever said that reaching wow numbers worldwide was ever even a possibilty. Sure there was talk of reaching a mil..or reaching wow's NA numbers as a possibilty. But nothing more than talk..just like this thread..no evidence..all talk..all speculation. Just like VG forums there was talk of 500-800k subs...just like DnL there was talk of 250k subs..just BS. Using BS among BS'ers as your sword is kinda lame. So is generalizing an entire community for a couple posts made by 12 year olds. You offer no evidence for anything or any statements. Your problem seems to be with the 2 or 3 children making posts and some guy at turbine .yet you include the entire lotr playerbase in your statements. You may have a problems with some game review sites and the rating and reviews they gave about what a success this game will be.Great..go laugh at them, not the entire lotr community. I have no problem with what your saying..just when you generalize over very specific instances..making this community look like they are somehow involved. keep your bs specific..got a problem with some fanboys..dont say its a problem with the lotr community or specifically avoid saying its not a problem in general. See what im saying? You wanna go NA na na na to the people who said this would ever have wow numbers..who gives a shit. Do it to the community in general..then your being an ass.
Avoiding the question. What games failed in china? Eve has 214k subs last I heard..no idea if its true, dont care. And it had 200k registered beta players, very quickly in china. no idea if its true, dont care. Never stated anything else. You seriouly dont think 200k players in all of asia likely? Basing this off what? Wow can get 5 mil, but a so called wow clone cant get 200k? I have no idea really but it seems far from unlikely. It could get 10 million or 10 for all anyone knows. I never said 200k subs was a gimme. It was a joke about 100k farmers being a gimme as long as you dont shit in a box a sell it as an online game. A joke. Now you got me dragged into making the same post over and over agian. Your good at keeping a dead horse alive..but you've still yet to actually say anything not said on page 1 or 2...and now niether have I..thanks
What ones haven't failed/disappointed - other than WoW few Western games get attention in Asia. As for EVE Online, correct me if I am wrong but have they officially even announced 200k subs total? I know last year they announced 100k subs and that a few places estimate them at around 175k subs or so but 200k subs in Asia? That seems terribly unlikely. 200k subs is an unusual thing and by no means a gimme in any country, region, or even worldwide for ANY such MMO.
Try again. :-)
Look, I find the discussion interesting and aside from being annoyed and frustrated with some 'wild' claims here and there I find that for a topic of this sort it has been a fairly reasonable discussion. The great thing about board discussions is you can easily opt out of them if they do not appeal to you.
I agree - in fact, you would be far better served worrying about how to stay awake while playing LotRO.
HaHa, sorry - had to make that joke, J/K with ya of course. I actually do agree with your point here and find it a bit ridiculous when people post to say how they think posting in a thread isn't worth it. It is just idle conversation, I don't think to many people posting in here really give a crap one way or another in a real sense.
No one gives a crap that your posting, its all of us me included now just making posts at each other, like somehow one of us will go OK..I was mistaken here..LOL. That isnt going to happen because we're all full of shit anyway, and probalby all wrong. I think we can agree there..so how about adding something new or start a new topic or something where we can actually debate something other than who wild ass guess is better for 50 pages. But whatever..im in it now so ill keep on making the same posts as long as you guys do.
See you in the dream..
The Fires from heaven, now as cold as ice. A rapid ascension tolls a heavy price.
AgtSmith,
I don't think making any post isn't "worth it" unless, as in this case, it's the same exact comments going back and forth, constantly, for 27 straight pages. It is not idle conversation at that point. It's far beyond that and has turned into something of an obsession. Or a severe case of OCD.
Someone was refraining a comment about you in an earlier post, basically summing up all your comments with the whole "They must eat crow!" comment... And, I really am beginning to wonder if that's not your goal here. Waiting for someone to step forth and say "You were right. We were wrong"
I don't think it's "idle chatter" to you at this point. I'd have believed that about 25 or 26 pages ago... but not at this point. What is it you're trying to accomplish by posting the same counter-arguments over and over again? You don't like the game. You don't think its numbers are an indication of a successful launch and you have doubts that it would ever see 1million subscribers. I think everyone here realizes that by now. So what is it you're fishing for?
Everyone has acknowledged that the numbers thrown around here aren't reliable. Everyone's pretty much acknowledged that they're not a good basis for debate. So why is everyone still debating?
What exactly are you trying to accomplish here?
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
AgtSmith,
I don't think making any post isn't "worth it" unless, as in this case, it's the same exact comments going back and forth, constantly, for 27 straight pages. It is not idle conversation at that point. It's far beyond that and has turned into something of an obsession. Or a severe case of OCD.
Someone was refraining a comment about you in an earlier post, basically summing up all your comments with the whole "They must eat crow!" comment... And, I really am beginning to wonder if that's not your goal here. Waiting for someone to step forth and say "You were right. We were wrong"
I don't think it's "idle chatter" to you at this point. I'd have believed that about 25 or 26 pages ago... but not at this point. What is it you're trying to accomplish by posting the same counter-arguments over and over again? You don't like the game. You don't think its numbers are an indication of a successful launch and you have doubts that it would ever see 1million subscribers. I think everyone here realizes that by now. So what is it you're fishing for?
Everyone has acknowledged that the numbers thrown around here aren't reliable. Everyone's pretty much acknowledged that they're not a good basis for debate. So why is everyone still debating?
What exactly are you trying to accomplish here?
As I wrote in a post earlier: never seen a grown man stuck on a rubberbone so hard in my life. (except for politicians of courseLuckily, at least he can argue (?) politely, if we kindly forget the childish extrapolation of the very very few fanboi overstatements to the whole lotro community, that he likes to do once in a while... the rest of his chanting is quite civilized in general.
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
Oh I agree. I've even concurred with AgtSmith on other threads. He's an articulate and well-spoken guy who can make a point in a concise manner. Which, frankly, makes his persistence in arguing the same points for this long in this thread all the more perplexing to me. It's like this game hits a nerve with him that he just can't let go of.
Sure, everyone else is counter-arguing their points, too.. but at least in the case of people who enjoy LoTRO (Jackdog and others) their defense of the game is understandable... They're defending a game they enjoy playing in a forum specifically for that game. So, while neither side has any kind of concrete information to back up any claims of numbers or figures, at least the pro-LoTRO folks have a personal interest in what they're debating. I don't see where AgtSmith does, as he obviously doesn't like the game and isn't playing it anyway.
So, it begs the question... After 27 pages, is there a point in all this, and is it ever going to be reached?
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Oh I agree. I've even concurred with AgtSmith on other threads. He's an articulate and well-spoken guy who can make a point in a concise manner. Which, frankly, makes his persistence in arguing the same points for this long in this thread all the more perplexing to me. It's like this game hits a nerve with him that he just can't let go of.
Sure, everyone else is counter-arguing their points, too.. but at least in the case of people who enjoy LoTRO (Jackdog and others) their defense of the game is understandable... They're defending a game they enjoy playing in a forum specifically for that game. So, while neither side has any kind of concrete information to back up any claims of numbers or figures, at least the pro-LoTRO folks have a personal interest in what they're debating. I don't see where AgtSmith does, as he obviously doesn't like the game and isn't playing it anyway.
So, it begs the question... After 27 pages, is there a point in all this, and is it ever going to be reached?
Yeah, there is a point, and I have also written it down in this topic.
There is no way I could care less about how many copies the game has sold as long as:
1, Expansion are coming regulary
2, From the patch notes I can really see that the devs are actually listening to the community
3, I have no problems finding a group, even with my low toons on the very first EU server (Snowbourn).
The first 2 points prove that the devs are happy, therefore the game IS successful. The 3rd point means that I can enjoy the game in any way I'd like to.
What else should I care about?
DB
Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.
Oh I agree. I've even concurred with AgtSmith on other threads. He's an articulate and well-spoken guy who can make a point in a concise manner. Which, frankly, makes his persistence in arguing the same points for this long in this thread all the more perplexing to me. It's like this game hits a nerve with him that he just can't let go of.
Sure, everyone else is counter-arguing their points, too.. but at least in the case of people who enjoy LoTRO (Jackdog and others) their defense of the game is understandable... They're defending a game they enjoy playing in a forum specifically for that game. So, while neither side has any kind of concrete information to back up any claims of numbers or figures, at least the pro-LoTRO folks have a personal interest in what they're debating. I don't see where AgtSmith does, as he obviously doesn't like the game and isn't playing it anyway.
So, it begs the question... After 27 pages, is there a point in all this, and is it ever going to be reached?
Yeah, there is a point, and I have also written it down in this topic.
There is no way I could care less about how many copies the game has sold as long as:
1, Expansion are coming regulary
2, From the patch notes I can really see that the devs are actually listening to the community
3, I have no problems finding a group, even with my low toons on the very first EU server (Snowbourn).
The first 2 points prove that the devs are happy, therefore the game IS successful. The 3rd point means that I can enjoy the game in any way I'd like to.
What else should I care about?
DB
Same... With the exception of the other night, when I was lff for a quest and no one was responding... I soon realized it's because I'm still about 8 or 9 levels shy of the ideal level for the quest (it cons as purple to me) and really no one would be looking for someone my level to do it. Outside of that, when I send a lff out, it's answered - usually by several people - within a minute or so.
I've said before, when you start getting into 10s of thousands, nevermind 100s of thousands, of people playing the game overall, it becomes an abstraction. You're only ever going to be directly interacting with a small fraction of that at any given time, and only on your own server, so... Does it really matter if there's 100k, 200k or 1,000,000? Is that really going affect how much you and the 30 people in your Kinship, or the 6 people in your fellowship are enjoying the game?
I think it really does boil down to a popularity contest for some people. It's not enough for some to simply play the game because they enjoy it. They need to feel that they're playing the "better MMO"... or not playing "the sucky MMO", and seeing a "competing" game not do really well (even if only in their own mind) somehow satisfies that, I guess. I don't think that's necessarily the case with AgtSmith... again.. I don't know what he's driving at here... but it's certain so with many, many others.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
O.k. well... at the risk of angering even more people for be-laboring this point... I'm going to try again with AgtSmith. The points I question the validity of are in red in your quoted response.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
I've stayed out of this thread since making my one post a week ago just so as to not feed this madness any longer. While I have enjoyed watching this thread unfold in the macabre way that one might be fascinated by a train wreck or a burning building, I concur utterly.
I don't want to write this, and you don't want to read it. But now it's too late for both of us.
Heh... not disagreeing with you. In fact, I agree. But, then this is a forum where we post our opinions... so, if we weren't posting here... then it would be some other pointless post. At least this thread has had a modicum of civility to it... so it's as good as any to respond to. And, you must concur at least on some level; otherwise why respond with a post saying you don't care... unless you do?
Att CCP's 10th Anniversary Celebration in Iceland on June 3rd, CEO Hilmar Pétursson gave a presentation in which he announced that EVE surpassed 200,000 subscribers.
- RPG Quiz - can you get all 25 right?
- FPS Quiz - how well do you know your shooters?
The game is doing pretty well in this post-WoW, WoW-dominated mmorpg world. LotRO clearly has a nice market niche that the upcoming PvP games dont overlap much with. Its not a game that appeals to everyone - indeed, I am a big LotRO fan but I would advise hardcore players and PvP types to look elsewhere - but to the people it DOES appeal to (casual players, solo players, roleplayers, Tolkien fans, players who value the story and the quests over the xp/loot grind, etc), it has a very strong appeal.
So LOTRO should do fine. Which is saying quite a bit because there havent been a lot of successes in the mmorpg world since WoW came out. Some older games have fallen by the wayside, and some new games have failed, so its nice to see a new game out there that has a solid release and a solid (if unspectacular) number of customers.
Elladan - ESO (AD)
Camring - SWTOR (Ebon Hawk)
Eol & Justinian - Rift (Faeblight)
Ceol and Duri - LotRO (Landroval)
Kili - WoW
Eol - Lineage 2
Camring - SWG
Justinian (Nimue), Camring - DAoC