Don't know about the sales figures, but if you look at PC game sales rankings, then LoTRO seems to be doing fairly well relative to most of the PC gaming market:
It was #1 for April and in the Top 10 for May and June (although it dropped off the weekly charts in mid-June). It may still be a Top 20 contender for July and August when they release those figures. Considering the size of the PC market and relative to the success (or lack thereof) of most other online games, I'd say that LoTRO has been doing fairly well for themselves. Nothing will topple WoW but time, so being second-best in the market is nothing to be ashamed of.
250k boxes in a single month, and LoTRO only did half that in three months, and likely only sold slightly more worlwide.
What is the source for that 250k number? I haven't seen an official source give a number other than the SOE Press Release that said it was less than 200k after three months of sales.
If Jackdog can keep bumping the number of LoTRO boxes to 179, then why can't I bump VG's box sales.
I thought that the press release was over 200k sold.
I'll have to look it up now.
jackdog is bumping nothing the whole thread is about this link
which is about how LoTRO sold 179 K copies in N America at release on 24 April and the end of the quarter which was June 30. Not bad for 9 weeks of sales just in the N American market if you ask me.
From the link: The Lord of the Rings Online: Shadows of Angmar sold over 172,000 copies during the quarter
In fact, I decided to do a little investigating myself. Midway reports 2Q earnings in the PC market at $10 million. LOTRO was the only PC game released by Midway in 2Q. That means the 172k figure is utterly crap. Simply divide $10 million in revenue by 172K and you get a whopping $58 per box unit which is all but impossible. But let's look at this a bit more in detail. 1Q 2007 figures for Midway show for the PC market $110k in revenue -- a paultry amount. Safe to say that $10 million for 2Q is almost entirely LOTRO sales (and interesting enough if you look at 2Q 2006, they have $5m in revenue with Rise and Fall release). Now what percentage of the SRP does Midway receive? Hard to say, but many years ago when I worked in retail, the store would take 50% of the SRP. So let's assume Turbine and Midway split the remaining SRP evenly. That's roughly $12 each. Now divide that into $10 million and you get roughly 800k sales. But let's say Turbine was generous and Midway gets the remaining 50%. That's $25 per box, giving us 400k sales. Now even if you doubt this simple math (and you can find on Midway's sight these figures to verify everything I've related), you cannot doubt that the 172k figure reported by GS is profoundly wrong.
Such stupidity is nearly beyond belief. Are you seriously suggesting that a company only has income in a quarter from its new products and therefore, if it made 10 million in a quarter that it much be from LotRO only? None of us has any idea what those sales figures entail, could be liscense revenue, could be any number of amortizations, could be they sold the big company jet for crying out loud. It is entirely speculation to even try to use such a vague and nondescript figure which is EXACTLY what I have been arguing in this thread - the LoTRO fanboys will not accept anything other than the presumed/imagined belief that LotRO is either at 1 million subs or well on its way despite ANY evidence to support that and some evidence to counter it.
Also gotta love the both sides of the coin argument. First it is that 172k NA sales is great and it means that they have 1 million subs (or will soon), then they argue that 172k is not accurate and sales are much higher. It is kind of like the old saying I didn't do it and even if I did I had good reason.
Ah yes, the ad hominem attacks when faced with facts. If you took the time to read Midway's financial report (which you did not), a legal document I might add that is accurate, it clearly states PC sales of $10 million for 2Q 2007. As I pointed out, the previous quarter, Q1, had PC games sales of only $100k -- that's a pretty good bellwhether for determining nominal PC game sales. In fact, Midway released 1.8 million copies of Happy Feet during Q1 and only registered revenues of $100k. So it is a safe bet that most of the $10 million in revenue came from the only PC game released in the Q2, namely LOTRO. So that 172k figure is just plain fabrication and I'm not suprised you were duped into believing it as it fits your agenda. I'll trust the bona fide data given by Midway over some two-bit game site's numbers any day.
And speaking of both sides, it's rather telling for you to bring it up. In psychology they call that projecting. If LOTRO had done gangbusters, sold 4 million copies, you'd be in here with your mass market = McDonalds = the suck arguement. But if you believe the inaccurate and fabricated 172k figure, the game sucks because they didn't get enough subs. It is a no win situation for and with you.
_____________________________ Currently Playing: LOTRO; DDO Played: AC2, AO, Auto Assault, CoX, DAoC, DDO, Earth&Beyond, EQ1, EQ2, EVE, Fallen Earth, Jumpgate, Roma Victor, Second Life, SWG, V:SoH, WoW, World War II Online.
Games I'm watching: Infinity: The Quest for Earth, Force of Arms.
i dont care if WOW or any other mmo have better subscriber number than lotro but the fact is
its EASIER for me to get grp in LOTRO than in WOW..
sorry to burst fanboi's bubble but LFG-ing in WOW is harder than ever and i dont care how much more sales WOW got when most of them is on WOW_CHINA servers.. BLizzard is lying when they put those number.. if they put North American total number then thats the real truth..
9 million ppl and still cant get grp to SunkenTemple lol?
I realy dont care how many boxes a game sells , as long as i can find players to play whit.
Playing:World of Warcraft. Played:Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies. Tried:Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.
Ah yes, the ad hominem attacks when faced with facts. If you took the time to read Midway's financial report (which you did not), a legal document I might add that is accurate, it clearly states PC sales of $10 million for 2Q 2007. As I pointed out, the previous quarter, Q1, had PC games sales of only $100k -- that's a pretty good bellwhether for determining nominal PC game sales. In fact, Midway released 1.8 million copies of Happy Feet during Q1 and only registered revenues of $100k. So it is a safe bet that most of the $10 million in revenue came from the only PC game released in the Q2, namely LOTRO. So that 172k figure is just plain fabrication and I'm not suprised you were duped into believing it as it fits your agenda. I'll trust the bona fide data given by Midway over some two-bit game site's numbers any day. And speaking of both sides, it's rather telling for you to bring it up. In psychology they call that projecting. If LOTRO had done gangbusters, sold 4 million copies, you'd be in here with your mass market = McDonalds = the suck arguement. But if you believe the inaccurate and fabricated 172k figure, the game sucks because they didn't get enough subs. It is a no win situation for and with you.
Cerion, I did a bit of digging through the quarterlies too and I think your theory that 172K = FALSE depends on whether or not Midway receives revenues (either full or partial) from monthly and lifetime subscriptions. Thanks to lifetime subscriptions and the high amount of initial sales, it's not unreasonable to assume that if Midway did receive a cut of subscriptions, then a $50+ average revenue per copy sold could be accurate.
Also, I'm not sure about your Happy Feet numbers (the game was released in 2006 on multiple platforms and I couldn't verify your 1.8 million claim) since that would imply even if all $11 million dollars of Q1 revenue would have had to be from HF and they'd only receive $6.11 per copy sold, which is probably untrue.
Ah yes, the ad hominem attacks when faced with facts. If you took the time to read Midway's financial report (which you did not), a legal document I might add that is accurate, it clearly states PC sales of $10 million for 2Q 2007. As I pointed out, the previous quarter, Q1, had PC games sales of only $100k -- that's a pretty good bellwhether for determining nominal PC game sales. In fact, Midway released 1.8 million copies of Happy Feet during Q1 and only registered revenues of $100k. So it is a safe bet that most of the $10 million in revenue came from the only PC game released in the Q2, namely LOTRO. So that 172k figure is just plain fabrication and I'm not suprised you were duped into believing it as it fits your agenda. I'll trust the bona fide data given by Midway over some two-bit game site's numbers any day. And speaking of both sides, it's rather telling for you to bring it up. In psychology they call that projecting. If LOTRO had done gangbusters, sold 4 million copies, you'd be in here with your mass market = McDonalds = the suck arguement. But if you believe the inaccurate and fabricated 172k figure, the game sucks because they didn't get enough subs. It is a no win situation for and with you.
Cerion, I did a bit of digging through the quarterlies too and I think your theory that 172K = FALSE depends on whether or not Midway receives revenues (either full or partial) from monthly and lifetime subscriptions. Thanks to lifetime subscriptions and the high amount of initial sales, it's not unreasonable to assume that if Midway did receive a cut of subscriptions, then a $50+ average revenue per copy sold could be accurate.
Also, I'm not sure about your Happy Feet numbers (the game was released in 2006 on multiple platforms and I couldn't verify your 1.8 million claim) since that would imply even if all $11 million dollars of Q1 revenue would have had to be from HF and they'd only receive $6.11 per copy sold, which is probably untrue.
Grimm, thanks for the civil conversation. I thought of that particular point, but I see no evidence that Midway receives ongoing revenues. Codemasters does because it maintains the European servers and it was the publisher. That was likely the source of the problems with international players wishing to use NA servers. Now if Midway administered billing, or some on-going task, then I'd see a monthly cut. But Turbine administers its billing in NA.
As for the Happy Feet game release, there's a news blurb 1.8 million copies were shipped in January. If that is an after-action report where the 1.8 million were pushed in Q4 2006, then the Total Revenues for PC games in Q1 2007 of $100k are an even better indication of 'ongoing sales' of preveiously released PC titles.
_____________________________ Currently Playing: LOTRO; DDO Played: AC2, AO, Auto Assault, CoX, DAoC, DDO, Earth&Beyond, EQ1, EQ2, EVE, Fallen Earth, Jumpgate, Roma Victor, Second Life, SWG, V:SoH, WoW, World War II Online.
Games I'm watching: Infinity: The Quest for Earth, Force of Arms.
Originally posted by Cerion Ah yes, the ad hominem attacks when faced with facts.
Facts are not defined as pressumed or invented which is exactly what your post was.
/hands AS a shovel.
Care to dig more? Now you try to obfuscate. Try to speak to the matter at hand.
_____________________________ Currently Playing: LOTRO; DDO Played: AC2, AO, Auto Assault, CoX, DAoC, DDO, Earth&Beyond, EQ1, EQ2, EVE, Fallen Earth, Jumpgate, Roma Victor, Second Life, SWG, V:SoH, WoW, World War II Online.
Games I'm watching: Infinity: The Quest for Earth, Force of Arms.
So pointing out the complete fabrication of your 'facts' (where facts is defined as stuff you made up) is obfuscating? Everything you posted was completely made up. If you think GS is full of it then say so, that is a valid argument - but just making up a series of so called facts to prove your opinions is just stupid.
Ah yes, the ad hominem attacks when faced with facts. If you took the time to read Midway's financial report (which you did not), a legal document I might add that is accurate, it clearly states PC sales of $10 million for 2Q 2007. As I pointed out, the previous quarter, Q1, had PC games sales of only $100k -- that's a pretty good bellwhether for determining nominal PC game sales. In fact, Midway released 1.8 million copies of Happy Feet during Q1 and only registered revenues of $100k. So it is a safe bet that most of the $10 million in revenue came from the only PC game released in the Q2, namely LOTRO. So that 172k figure is just plain fabrication and I'm not suprised you were duped into believing it as it fits your agenda. I'll trust the bona fide data given by Midway over some two-bit game site's numbers any day. And speaking of both sides, it's rather telling for you to bring it up. In psychology they call that projecting. If LOTRO had done gangbusters, sold 4 million copies, you'd be in here with your mass market = McDonalds = the suck arguement. But if you believe the inaccurate and fabricated 172k figure, the game sucks because they didn't get enough subs. It is a no win situation for and with you.
Cerion, I did a bit of digging through the quarterlies too and I think your theory that 172K = FALSE depends on whether or not Midway receives revenues (either full or partial) from monthly and lifetime subscriptions. Thanks to lifetime subscriptions and the high amount of initial sales, it's not unreasonable to assume that if Midway did receive a cut of subscriptions, then a $50+ average revenue per copy sold could be accurate.
Also, I'm not sure about your Happy Feet numbers (the game was released in 2006 on multiple platforms and I couldn't verify your 1.8 million claim) since that would imply even if all $11 million dollars of Q1 revenue would have had to be from HF and they'd only receive $6.11 per copy sold, which is probably untrue.
Grimm, thanks for the civil conversation. I thought of that particular point, but I see no evidence that Midway receives ongoing revenues. Codemasters does because it maintains the European servers and it was the publisher. That was likely the source of the problems with international players wishing to use NA servers. Now if Midway administered billing, or some on-going task, then I'd see a monthly cut. But Turbine administers its billing in NA.
As for the Happy Feet game release, there's a news blurb 1.8 million copies were shipped in January. If that is an after-action report where the 1.8 million were pushed in Q4 2006, then the Total Revenues for PC games in Q1 2007 of $100k are an even better indication of 'ongoing sales' of preveiously released PC titles.
I'm just trying to put my finance education to good use outside of the classroom
Firstly, Happy Feet sold 1.8 million copies across all platforms between it's release and the announcement of January 14, so almost all of that revenue would be split amongst all the platforms in Q4 06 report most likely. The 100K revenue from Q1 07 is probably from just a handful of sales of Happy Feet and the less than successful PC game launches that month.
Secondly, I haven't had any luck with finding subscription revenue numbers, but I find it hard to believe Midway wouldn't want to get a piece of the action beyond pushing the boxes around. They must know that the revenue from that is limited compared to the monthly fees. Maybe more info is available in the 10-Q report (I've only found the 8-K, so far) Anyways, the point of this topic is sales figures and if you look at the NPD charts, LoTRO did put up highly respectable numbers, even managing to beat WoW and it's expansion in April. I think between the quarterly report and the NPD rankings, it should be reasonable to see maybe 250 - 300,000 copies were sold, but I'll be hard pressed to believe anymore than that. Also, LoTRO has been dropping in the sales rankings, so I don't think that number will get that much higher (my guestimate is best case 500,000 NA copies over its lifetime and barring expansions)
I'm just trying to put my finance education to good use outside of the classroom Firstly, Happy Feet sold 1.8 million copies across all platforms between it's release and the announcement of January 14, so almost all of that revenue would be split amongst all the platforms in Q4 06 report most likely. The 100K revenue from Q1 07 is probably from just a handful of sales of Happy Feet and the less than successful PC game launches that month.
I don't see how you can assign a box sales number, good or bad, when all you have is a raw quarterly revenue report with no detailing of where the revenue came from. Looking at ranking charts and trying to estimate from that is equally inaccurate as for one, the time period in question was a PARTICULARLY slow time with no major releases other than LotRO (as much from the time of year as to the DX10 thing this fall).
People are posting assumptions as if they where facts and then arguing whose assumption is accurate when neither damn one is. The article said 172k NA boxes sold, I say that is a poor number all things considering. If you care to argue that it is a good number go ahead. If you care to make the argument that GS is full of crap then go ahead (but don't quote other games sites posting such info either). But if you are going to just make up numbers and invent facts to fit a love or hate of the game spare everyone for crying out loud.
I'm just trying to put my finance education to good use outside of the classroom Firstly, Happy Feet sold 1.8 million copies across all platforms between it's release and the announcement of January 14, so almost all of that revenue would be split amongst all the platforms in Q4 06 report most likely. The 100K revenue from Q1 07 is probably from just a handful of sales of Happy Feet and the less than successful PC game launches that month.
I don't see how you can assign a box sales number, good or bad, when all you have is a raw quarterly revenue report with no detailing of where the revenue came from. Looking at ranking charts and trying to estimate from that is equally inaccurate as for one, the time period in question was a PARTICULARLY slow time with no major releases other than LotRO (as much from the time of year as to the DX10 thing this fall).
People are posting assumptions as if they where facts and then arguing whose assumption is accurate when neither damn one is. The article said 172k NA boxes sold, I say that is a poor number all things considering. If you care to argue that it is a good number go ahead. If you care to make the argument that GS is full of crap then go ahead (but don't quote other games sites posting such info either). But if you are going to just make up numbers and invent facts to fit a love or hate of the game spare everyone for crying out loud.
Well, I read this from 1st to last and found it quite entertaining. I'm with smith on this one.
Fact : 172,000 box sales in NA in one quater ( their first ) for THE genre defining IP at a time with no serious competition = lacklustre.
Nevermind what Europe may or may not have sold, ignore what China might do as neither of these are supported by facts. Prior to launch this game was touted, by some in this community, to be the best game evaa, and much much ridicule directed towards VG and VG players.
Caveat ~ assuming the figure of 172,000 is factual, as reported.
You know, I enjoy a good debate, even a heated, spirited one - so long as it's actually going somewhere.
What I don't get in all this is, after page after page after page of the same exact points, counter-points and numbers being thrown back and forth like some OCD Tennis Match... It's become this merry-go-nowhere of "You're wrong." "No, you're wrong". "Nuh-uhh fanboi, you're wrong". What's the point? Where's it going? To what end is this being debated? Does anyone even know?
Do the "It's a failure" folks want a concession of some kind from the "it's a successful game" crowd, "Okay, you were right and we were wrong. It's a failure of a game and we suck for playing it"? Do you want them to stop playing it?
Do the "It's awesome" folks want the "it sucks" folks to come around to their way of thinking?
I don't understand what the objective is here.
I mean, it's been said that the numbers, except perhaps the 172k figure, are a guestimation and are unsubstantiated. So what's the argument? Whose theoretical figures are better? "My MMO can beat up your MMO"?
Seriously... It's turned into an aimless, pointless battle of the theories.
ugh lol.
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
I don't see how you can assign a box sales number, good or bad, when all you have is a raw quarterly revenue reportwith no detailing of where the revenue came from. People are posting assumptions as if they where facts...
Fact : 172,000 box sales in NA in one quater...
Caveat ~ assuming the figure of 172,000 is factual, as reported.
I've read the whole thread as well.
I do find it somewhat ironic that the article which started this debate fits exactly into AgtSmith's first sentence that I quoted from him. AgtSmith you've assigned that number as FACT (just like nikoliath did... although he did cover himself with the caveat) quite a few times. Then you come out and say what you did with your first sentence there. Well, it cuts both ways... Face it, GameSpot is just making up numbers.
We (GameSpot included) have absolutely no idea what the number of copies sold in NA for the first quarter are. The only number that is fact (because people will go to jail if it's false) is that Midway made 10 million in their pc games division for the quarter that LoTRo came out.
So, lets all just stop using the stupid 172,000 figure... because it's just as much of an assumption as using 5,000 or 500,000. The only figure known to be fact is the $10 million. If we are all trying to cut down on the SPIN... then we should be able to agree that using the GameSpot number is just bunk. (As AgtSmith's first sentence clearly states).
Now, if we want to have a debate about what kind of sales numbers would be good vs. what kind of numbers would be bad (knowing that nobody knows exactly what those numbers are) well, then that's a different story.
For example here are some sales figures for some other single-player games and console games. Again, the numbers are only as good as the site... I make no claims to their validity one way or the other.
"* Top selling PC title of 2004: Sims 2 with 750,000 units sold., reported NPD Group at the Advertising In Games Forum"
This site and the lists below are for videogames not pc games... I'm still trying to locate those figures. Unfortunately pretty much the only source of all sales numbers are from NPD. Read on below to see how accurate those are.
After doing quite a bit of digging around... I've come to the conclusion. There is no such thing as FACT when it comes to box sales for a computer game. First of all, even if we could get an accurate figure that did take into account all avenues of those box sales (such as Wal-Mart and Costco) no sales data includes digital downloads.
As we all know, digital downloads are becoming more and more popular. I doubt they have reached the point that they are equal with box sales, but they are a big enough percentage that they just can't be written off either.
Well, I was hoping to have had some firm numbers that we could all agree on when I started this searching... instead I've come to the conclusion that any number you see (unless it's a prepared financial document, which is binding by law) is going to be dubious at best.
I said a ways back that it is a valid argument to say that you feel GS is full of it, just as it is valid to read something like that from a legitimate source and comment on it. I certainly am one that encourages disbelief in terms of media but it cuts both ways - if you are going to argue that GS's number is likely inaccurate then all of the games sites top 10 lists and such have to be considered equally unreliable meaning that all the stuff cited in here as to why LotRO is the second greatest video game since WoW is just pure speculation.
All that being said, can we not talk about the topic at hand, tht being that 172k NA boxes is not such a good number considering the circumstances. Whether that is an accurate number or not is irrelevant to answering the question honestly if that number, real or not, would represent a 'good' number. As I have said, if accurate, I think that would not be a good number andf the bulk of the arguing in this thread has been people who accepted the number and then tried to spin it into something better. That spin is what I have been arguing about, I haven't really contested anyone who wants to say the think GS is full of it.
You get what I am saying? It is valid to say you think 172k is good or bad. It is valid to say you disbelieve GS. I find it invalid to take that 172k and spin it into 1 million subs as several people here have done and then when people point out the ridiculousness of that spin (such as the guy who was presuming 700k subs from China) you just say, well, the number is wrong. It is like I said before, the 'ole "I didn't do it, and if I did I had good reason anyways" type argument.
172,000 does that mean something then?? i bought a copy but i never got passed the free month. i would say half of them sales do not have subscriptions attached to them , but the fan bois will tell you different.
pulling numbers out your ass is great on the internet as half the fools belive what you say.
172,000 does that mean something then?? i bought a copy but i never got passed the free month. i would say half of them sales do not have subscriptions attached to them , but the fan bois will tell you different. pulling numbers out your ass is great on the internet as half the fools belive what you say.
you must be talking about WoW no? How exactly do you get 1 million more subscribers in one month? GG blizzard
---------------------------- Time is a great teacher, but unfortunately it kills all its pupils ... - Louis Hector Berlioz
172,000 does that mean something then?? i bought a copy but i never got passed the free month. i would say half of them sales do not have subscriptions attached to them , but the fan bois will tell you different. pulling numbers out your ass is great on the internet as half the fools belive what you say.
It means something in the context of the original thread which opens a discussion as to whether that number would be considered good or bad. I say bad and explained why. But then the thread became about fanboys spinning a clearly bad, or at least not good, number into millions of subs. So, that leaves us unsure if the number is legitimate or not, perhaps we can get honest comments on whether it is good or bad IF it is accurate and leave the accuracy to a second conversation.
Also consider this, if lotRO was off to a million box sales and 500k subs on the way to a million then would they be quiet? I mean to say that we all know that bandwagon advertising (the whole everyone else is type stuff) is one of the more effective means of reaching people so why would they be so secretive and silent if they had a true megahit on thier hands? And make no mistake, if the numbers of sales.subs where of the level suggested by fans in this thread and others the game would be well considered a megahit and Turbine would be broadcasting it as loudly as they could.
I said a ways back that it is a valid argument to say that you feel GS is full of it, just as it is valid to read something like that from a legitimate source and comment on it. I certainly am one that encourages disbelief in terms of media but it cuts both ways - if you are going to argue that GS's number is likely inaccurate then all of the games sites top 10 lists and such have to be considered equally unreliable meaning that all the stuff cited in here as to why LotRO is the second greatest video game since WoW is just pure speculation.
All that being said, can we not talk about the topic at hand, tht being that 172k NA boxes is not such a good number considering the circumstances. Whether that is an accurate number or not is irrelevant to answering the question honestly if that number, real or not, would represent a 'good' number. As I have said, if accurate, I think that would not be a good number andf the bulk of the arguing in this thread has been people who accepted the number and then tried to spin it into something better. That spin is what I have been arguing about, I haven't really contested anyone who wants to say the think GS is full of it.
Well, that's what I was trying to get at:
From your very own statement we know that the 172k figure is NOT fact.
As to whether 172k for NA boxes is a good number or not... well, that's just it. What do we have as proof for a benchmark to base that number against? Really, go ahead and try to find some single month or even single quarter pc games (Especially MMO games) box sales. Even use NPD figures if you want. (Even though I don't really trust them anymore either).
There are lots of charts on how much money was made (but again, we have no idea what that translates into box numbers), and there is a lot of Top Ten lists without any numbers at all.
The only box sales that are easy to come up with are total sales to date. Like for WoW, and Myst, and Sims, and whatever... but try finding box sales for a single month or quarter for those games or any PC games... then we'll have some benchmark to judge by (even if the numbers are dubious).
As it stands right now, I have no idea if 172k is good or bad. List some data (preferably a link) that show where that number fits, and then I'll know how that number compares.
Look, it is perfectly reasonable to say something like "I see it is reported at GS that LotRO sold 172k boxes in NA in the first quarter. That seems kind of low, maybe even bad, for a major title released with no competition". If someone disagrees with the number as reported a valid argument would be something like "Yeah, I read that - but I honestly don't give much credit to GS for reporting accurate sales numbers". Perhaps even something like, "I agree that 172k in one quarter for NA for a big title is a low but I can't say I believe GS when it comes to such figures" or "I disagree, 172k in NA seems like a good start" (the later hearing being validly stated but something I would contest). What has caused all the consternation in this thread is those who accept the number and then go on to project double or more that number for Europe and triple or quadruple that number for chine and then assign, magically, 500k or 1 million subs to the game with nothing as support and in the face of the reported number.
I mean look back at the other post I linked to by one of the staunchest opponents to what I have said in this thread. he states that he pressumes subs at 150k or so in US and same in Europe and that once China launches it will go to 1 million. All with no sourcing and even as he accepts, or doesn't argue it as inaccurate, the 172k number referenced in this thread. That kind of wild fantastical assumptive reasoning is what this thread is really about, and why I think so many ar anxious to tackle LotRO. people just don't like a big braggart and LotRO has been that.
Yada yada yada , blah blah blah. 172 K is 9 weeks of a quarter in N America only. Lotro's release was a good one and they have signed with the largest distributer in China. I think that is great and I think, hope, and speculate that they will break a million. I f I am wrong, come back at end of the year and quote this. In the meantime EQII is scrambling to retain customers, Vanguard is merging servers, and AoC has beeen delayed for the 6th time. Have a nice day.
In the meantime EQII is scrambling to retain customers
Prove it. I sure don't like EQ2, but I never saw a mass exodus from that game like I did from LOTRO in the first 2 weeks. I think anyone can reasonably look at this and see the truth: At release, there were ALWAYS server queues. 2 weeks later, they were gone. 3 months later, despite those "great box sales". the queues have never come back- so, yep. people are leaving as fast or faster than they are coming in.
And whatever, at least they haven't resorted to giving away free months within 4 months of realease. it took 2 1/2 years for that to happen. If anyone is scrambling, it's the scam artists at Turbine.
Comments
Don't know about the sales figures, but if you look at PC game sales rankings, then LoTRO seems to be doing fairly well relative to most of the PC gaming market:
biz.gamedaily.com/charts/
It was #1 for April and in the Top 10 for May and June (although it dropped off the weekly charts in mid-June). It may still be a Top 20 contender for July and August when they release those figures. Considering the size of the PC market and relative to the success (or lack thereof) of most other online games, I'd say that LoTRO has been doing fairly well for themselves. Nothing will topple WoW but time, so being second-best in the market is nothing to be ashamed of.
What is the source for that 250k number? I haven't seen an official source give a number other than the SOE Press Release that said it was less than 200k after three months of sales.
If Jackdog can keep bumping the number of LoTRO boxes to 179, then why can't I bump VG's box sales.I thought that the press release was over 200k sold.
I'll have to look it up now.
jackdog is bumping nothing the whole thread is about this linkwww.gamespot.com/news/6176030.html
which is about how LoTRO sold 179 K copies in N America at release on 24 April and the end of the quarter which was June 30. Not bad for 9 weeks of sales just in the N American market if you ask me.
From the link: The Lord of the Rings Online: Shadows of Angmar sold over 172,000 copies during the quarterThat's not 179,000.
Wish Darkfall would release.
Such stupidity is nearly beyond belief. Are you seriously suggesting that a company only has income in a quarter from its new products and therefore, if it made 10 million in a quarter that it much be from LotRO only? None of us has any idea what those sales figures entail, could be liscense revenue, could be any number of amortizations, could be they sold the big company jet for crying out loud. It is entirely speculation to even try to use such a vague and nondescript figure which is EXACTLY what I have been arguing in this thread - the LoTRO fanboys will not accept anything other than the presumed/imagined belief that LotRO is either at 1 million subs or well on its way despite ANY evidence to support that and some evidence to counter it.
Also gotta love the both sides of the coin argument. First it is that 172k NA sales is great and it means that they have 1 million subs (or will soon), then they argue that 172k is not accurate and sales are much higher. It is kind of like the old saying I didn't do it and even if I did I had good reason.
Ah yes, the ad hominem attacks when faced with facts. If you took the time to read Midway's financial report (which you did not), a legal document I might add that is accurate, it clearly states PC sales of $10 million for 2Q 2007. As I pointed out, the previous quarter, Q1, had PC games sales of only $100k -- that's a pretty good bellwhether for determining nominal PC game sales. In fact, Midway released 1.8 million copies of Happy Feet during Q1 and only registered revenues of $100k. So it is a safe bet that most of the $10 million in revenue came from the only PC game released in the Q2, namely LOTRO. So that 172k figure is just plain fabrication and I'm not suprised you were duped into believing it as it fits your agenda. I'll trust the bona fide data given by Midway over some two-bit game site's numbers any day.
And speaking of both sides, it's rather telling for you to bring it up. In psychology they call that projecting. If LOTRO had done gangbusters, sold 4 million copies, you'd be in here with your mass market = McDonalds = the suck arguement. But if you believe the inaccurate and fabricated 172k figure, the game sucks because they didn't get enough subs. It is a no win situation for and with you.
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Currently Playing: LOTRO; DDO
Played: AC2, AO, Auto Assault, CoX, DAoC, DDO, Earth&Beyond, EQ1, EQ2, EVE, Fallen Earth, Jumpgate, Roma Victor, Second Life, SWG, V:SoH, WoW, World War II Online.
Games I'm watching: Infinity: The Quest for Earth, Force of Arms.
Find the Truth: http://www.factcheck.org/
i dont care if WOW or any other mmo have better subscriber number than lotro but the fact is
its EASIER for me to get grp in LOTRO than in WOW..
sorry to burst fanboi's bubble but LFG-ing in WOW is harder than ever and i dont care how much more sales WOW got when most of them is on WOW_CHINA servers.. BLizzard is lying when they put those number.. if they put North American total number then thats the real truth..
9 million ppl and still cant get grp to SunkenTemple lol?
I realy dont care how many boxes a game sells , as long as i can find players to play whit.
Playing: World of Warcraft.
Played: Lord of the Rings Online, Starwars Galaxies.
Tried: Starwars the Old Republic, Everquest 2, Guild Wars, Vanguard, Age of Conan, Aion.
Cerion, I did a bit of digging through the quarterlies too and I think your theory that 172K = FALSE depends on whether or not Midway receives revenues (either full or partial) from monthly and lifetime subscriptions. Thanks to lifetime subscriptions and the high amount of initial sales, it's not unreasonable to assume that if Midway did receive a cut of subscriptions, then a $50+ average revenue per copy sold could be accurate.
Also, I'm not sure about your Happy Feet numbers (the game was released in 2006 on multiple platforms and I couldn't verify your 1.8 million claim) since that would imply even if all $11 million dollars of Q1 revenue would have had to be from HF and they'd only receive $6.11 per copy sold, which is probably untrue.
WoW is free in Asia, is LOTR going the same route? If not its not going to get msaaive sub from Asia.
Facts are not defined as pressumed or invented which is exactly what your post was.
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Cerion, I did a bit of digging through the quarterlies too and I think your theory that 172K = FALSE depends on whether or not Midway receives revenues (either full or partial) from monthly and lifetime subscriptions. Thanks to lifetime subscriptions and the high amount of initial sales, it's not unreasonable to assume that if Midway did receive a cut of subscriptions, then a $50+ average revenue per copy sold could be accurate.
Also, I'm not sure about your Happy Feet numbers (the game was released in 2006 on multiple platforms and I couldn't verify your 1.8 million claim) since that would imply even if all $11 million dollars of Q1 revenue would have had to be from HF and they'd only receive $6.11 per copy sold, which is probably untrue.
Grimm, thanks for the civil conversation. I thought of that particular point, but I see no evidence that Midway receives ongoing revenues. Codemasters does because it maintains the European servers and it was the publisher. That was likely the source of the problems with international players wishing to use NA servers. Now if Midway administered billing, or some on-going task, then I'd see a monthly cut. But Turbine administers its billing in NA.
As for the Happy Feet game release, there's a news blurb 1.8 million copies were shipped in January. If that is an after-action report where the 1.8 million were pushed in Q4 2006, then the Total Revenues for PC games in Q1 2007 of $100k are an even better indication of 'ongoing sales' of preveiously released PC titles.
_____________________________
Currently Playing: LOTRO; DDO
Played: AC2, AO, Auto Assault, CoX, DAoC, DDO, Earth&Beyond, EQ1, EQ2, EVE, Fallen Earth, Jumpgate, Roma Victor, Second Life, SWG, V:SoH, WoW, World War II Online.
Games I'm watching: Infinity: The Quest for Earth, Force of Arms.
Find the Truth: http://www.factcheck.org/
Facts are not defined as pressumed or invented which is exactly what your post was.
/hands AS a shovel.
Care to dig more? Now you try to obfuscate. Try to speak to the matter at hand.
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Currently Playing: LOTRO; DDO
Played: AC2, AO, Auto Assault, CoX, DAoC, DDO, Earth&Beyond, EQ1, EQ2, EVE, Fallen Earth, Jumpgate, Roma Victor, Second Life, SWG, V:SoH, WoW, World War II Online.
Games I'm watching: Infinity: The Quest for Earth, Force of Arms.
Find the Truth: http://www.factcheck.org/
So pointing out the complete fabrication of your 'facts' (where facts is defined as stuff you made up) is obfuscating? Everything you posted was completely made up. If you think GS is full of it then say so, that is a valid argument - but just making up a series of so called facts to prove your opinions is just stupid.
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Cerion, I did a bit of digging through the quarterlies too and I think your theory that 172K = FALSE depends on whether or not Midway receives revenues (either full or partial) from monthly and lifetime subscriptions. Thanks to lifetime subscriptions and the high amount of initial sales, it's not unreasonable to assume that if Midway did receive a cut of subscriptions, then a $50+ average revenue per copy sold could be accurate.
Also, I'm not sure about your Happy Feet numbers (the game was released in 2006 on multiple platforms and I couldn't verify your 1.8 million claim) since that would imply even if all $11 million dollars of Q1 revenue would have had to be from HF and they'd only receive $6.11 per copy sold, which is probably untrue.
Grimm, thanks for the civil conversation. I thought of that particular point, but I see no evidence that Midway receives ongoing revenues. Codemasters does because it maintains the European servers and it was the publisher. That was likely the source of the problems with international players wishing to use NA servers. Now if Midway administered billing, or some on-going task, then I'd see a monthly cut. But Turbine administers its billing in NA.
As for the Happy Feet game release, there's a news blurb 1.8 million copies were shipped in January. If that is an after-action report where the 1.8 million were pushed in Q4 2006, then the Total Revenues for PC games in Q1 2007 of $100k are an even better indication of 'ongoing sales' of preveiously released PC titles.
I'm just trying to put my finance education to good use outside of the classroomFirstly, Happy Feet sold 1.8 million copies across all platforms between it's release and the announcement of January 14, so almost all of that revenue would be split amongst all the platforms in Q4 06 report most likely. The 100K revenue from Q1 07 is probably from just a handful of sales of Happy Feet and the less than successful PC game launches that month.
Secondly, I haven't had any luck with finding subscription revenue numbers, but I find it hard to believe Midway wouldn't want to get a piece of the action beyond pushing the boxes around. They must know that the revenue from that is limited compared to the monthly fees. Maybe more info is available in the 10-Q report (I've only found the 8-K, so far) Anyways, the point of this topic is sales figures and if you look at the NPD charts, LoTRO did put up highly respectable numbers, even managing to beat WoW and it's expansion in April. I think between the quarterly report and the NPD rankings, it should be reasonable to see maybe 250 - 300,000 copies were sold, but I'll be hard pressed to believe anymore than that. Also, LoTRO has been dropping in the sales rankings, so I don't think that number will get that much higher (my guestimate is best case 500,000 NA copies over its lifetime and barring expansions)
I'm just trying to put my finance education to good use outside of the classroomFirstly, Happy Feet sold 1.8 million copies across all platforms between it's release and the announcement of January 14, so almost all of that revenue would be split amongst all the platforms in Q4 06 report most likely. The 100K revenue from Q1 07 is probably from just a handful of sales of Happy Feet and the less than successful PC game launches that month.
I don't see how you can assign a box sales number, good or bad, when all you have is a raw quarterly revenue report with no detailing of where the revenue came from. Looking at ranking charts and trying to estimate from that is equally inaccurate as for one, the time period in question was a PARTICULARLY slow time with no major releases other than LotRO (as much from the time of year as to the DX10 thing this fall).
People are posting assumptions as if they where facts and then arguing whose assumption is accurate when neither damn one is. The article said 172k NA boxes sold, I say that is a poor number all things considering. If you care to argue that it is a good number go ahead. If you care to make the argument that GS is full of crap then go ahead (but don't quote other games sites posting such info either). But if you are going to just make up numbers and invent facts to fit a love or hate of the game spare everyone for crying out loud.
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AgtSmith, just give up man, you won't be able to convince the fanbois.
172000 <> 9 000 000
We have that much players on one WoW server...
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Would you like some cheese with that whine?
I'm just trying to put my finance education to good use outside of the classroomFirstly, Happy Feet sold 1.8 million copies across all platforms between it's release and the announcement of January 14, so almost all of that revenue would be split amongst all the platforms in Q4 06 report most likely. The 100K revenue from Q1 07 is probably from just a handful of sales of Happy Feet and the less than successful PC game launches that month.
I don't see how you can assign a box sales number, good or bad, when all you have is a raw quarterly revenue report with no detailing of where the revenue came from. Looking at ranking charts and trying to estimate from that is equally inaccurate as for one, the time period in question was a PARTICULARLY slow time with no major releases other than LotRO (as much from the time of year as to the DX10 thing this fall).
People are posting assumptions as if they where facts and then arguing whose assumption is accurate when neither damn one is. The article said 172k NA boxes sold, I say that is a poor number all things considering. If you care to argue that it is a good number go ahead. If you care to make the argument that GS is full of crap then go ahead (but don't quote other games sites posting such info either). But if you are going to just make up numbers and invent facts to fit a love or hate of the game spare everyone for crying out loud.
Well, I read this from 1st to last and found it quite entertaining. I'm with smith on this one.
Fact : 172,000 box sales in NA in one quater ( their first ) for THE genre defining IP at a time with no serious competition = lacklustre.
Nevermind what Europe may or may not have sold, ignore what China might do as neither of these are supported by facts. Prior to launch this game was touted, by some in this community, to be the best game evaa, and much much ridicule directed towards VG and VG players.
Caveat ~ assuming the figure of 172,000 is factual, as reported.
You know, I enjoy a good debate, even a heated, spirited one - so long as it's actually going somewhere.
What I don't get in all this is, after page after page after page of the same exact points, counter-points and numbers being thrown back and forth like some OCD Tennis Match... It's become this merry-go-nowhere of "You're wrong." "No, you're wrong". "Nuh-uhh fanboi, you're wrong". What's the point? Where's it going? To what end is this being debated? Does anyone even know?
Do the "It's a failure" folks want a concession of some kind from the "it's a successful game" crowd, "Okay, you were right and we were wrong. It's a failure of a game and we suck for playing it"? Do you want them to stop playing it?
Do the "It's awesome" folks want the "it sucks" folks to come around to their way of thinking?
I don't understand what the objective is here.
I mean, it's been said that the numbers, except perhaps the 172k figure, are a guestimation and are unsubstantiated. So what's the argument? Whose theoretical figures are better? "My MMO can beat up your MMO"?
Seriously... It's turned into an aimless, pointless battle of the theories.
ugh lol.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Fact : 172,000 box sales in NA in one quater...
Caveat ~ assuming the figure of 172,000 is factual, as reported.
I've read the whole thread as well.
I do find it somewhat ironic that the article which started this debate fits exactly into AgtSmith's first sentence that I quoted from him. AgtSmith you've assigned that number as FACT (just like nikoliath did... although he did cover himself with the caveat) quite a few times. Then you come out and say what you did with your first sentence there. Well, it cuts both ways... Face it, GameSpot is just making up numbers.
We (GameSpot included) have absolutely no idea what the number of copies sold in NA for the first quarter are. The only number that is fact (because people will go to jail if it's false) is that Midway made 10 million in their pc games division for the quarter that LoTRo came out.
So, lets all just stop using the stupid 172,000 figure... because it's just as much of an assumption as using 5,000 or 500,000. The only figure known to be fact is the $10 million. If we are all trying to cut down on the SPIN... then we should be able to agree that using the GameSpot number is just bunk. (As AgtSmith's first sentence clearly states).
Now, if we want to have a debate about what kind of sales numbers would be good vs. what kind of numbers would be bad (knowing that nobody knows exactly what those numbers are) well, then that's a different story.
For example here are some sales figures for some other single-player games and console games. Again, the numbers are only as good as the site... I make no claims to their validity one way or the other.
This is an interesting tidbit from this site:
pc.gamezone.com/news/04_18_05_07_58AM.htm
"* Top selling PC title of 2004: Sims 2 with 750,000 units sold., reported NPD Group at the Advertising In Games Forum"
This site and the lists below are for videogames not pc games... I'm still trying to locate those figures. Unfortunately pretty much the only source of all sales numbers are from NPD. Read on below to see how accurate those are.
www.popzart.com/
NPD’s Top Ten Software Sales in May: (2007)
1. Pokémon Diamond (DS) - 331,200
2. Mario Party 8 (Wii) - 314,000
3. Spider-Man 3 (PS2) - 249,000
4. Pokémon Pearl (DS) – 237,800
5. Wii Play (Wii) - 227,000
6. Forza Motorsport 2 (X360) - 217,000
7. Guitar Hero II (X360) - 184,000
8. Spider-Man 3 (X360) - 140,000
9. Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars (X360) - 138,000
10. Guitar Hero II (PS2) - 131,000
NPD’s Top Ten Software Sales in June: (2007)
1. Mario Party 8 (Wii) – 426,200
2. Wii Play (Wii) – 293,200
3. Pokémon Diamond (DS) – 288,400
4. Pokémon Pearl (DS) – 214,700
5. Forza Motorsport 2 (X360) – 197,400
6. Guitar Hero II (PS2) – 197,350
7. Guitar Hero II (X360) – 177,600
8. Pokémon Battle Revolution (Wii) – 157,900
9. Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition (Wii) – over 150,000*
10. The Darkness (X360) – under 150,000*
This site has an interesting article about how NPD comes up with it's figures, and questions just how reliable they really are:
www.rampantgames.com/blog/2007/01/why-pc-game-industry-figures-are.html
These sites seems to indicate that Wal-Mart and Costco sales are NOT included in any NPD data figures:
www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx
Here is an interesting quote:
"However, NPD does not track sales from many mainstream retailers..."
www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php
This site has some interesting data as well. It's worth checking out if you'd like to learn more.
www.video-games-survey.com/software.htm
This site is another with sales figures. Again, believe which one you want to.
vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php
After doing quite a bit of digging around... I've come to the conclusion. There is no such thing as FACT when it comes to box sales for a computer game. First of all, even if we could get an accurate figure that did take into account all avenues of those box sales (such as Wal-Mart and Costco) no sales data includes digital downloads.
As we all know, digital downloads are becoming more and more popular. I doubt they have reached the point that they are equal with box sales, but they are a big enough percentage that they just can't be written off either.
Well, I was hoping to have had some firm numbers that we could all agree on when I started this searching... instead I've come to the conclusion that any number you see (unless it's a prepared financial document, which is binding by law) is going to be dubious at best.
I said a ways back that it is a valid argument to say that you feel GS is full of it, just as it is valid to read something like that from a legitimate source and comment on it. I certainly am one that encourages disbelief in terms of media but it cuts both ways - if you are going to argue that GS's number is likely inaccurate then all of the games sites top 10 lists and such have to be considered equally unreliable meaning that all the stuff cited in here as to why LotRO is the second greatest video game since WoW is just pure speculation.
All that being said, can we not talk about the topic at hand, tht being that 172k NA boxes is not such a good number considering the circumstances. Whether that is an accurate number or not is irrelevant to answering the question honestly if that number, real or not, would represent a 'good' number. As I have said, if accurate, I think that would not be a good number andf the bulk of the arguing in this thread has been people who accepted the number and then tried to spin it into something better. That spin is what I have been arguing about, I haven't really contested anyone who wants to say the think GS is full of it.
You get what I am saying? It is valid to say you think 172k is good or bad. It is valid to say you disbelieve GS. I find it invalid to take that 172k and spin it into 1 million subs as several people here have done and then when people point out the ridiculousness of that spin (such as the guy who was presuming 700k subs from China) you just say, well, the number is wrong. It is like I said before, the 'ole "I didn't do it, and if I did I had good reason anyways" type argument.
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172,000 does that mean something then?? i bought a copy but i never got passed the free month. i would say half of them sales do not have subscriptions attached to them , but the fan bois will tell you different.
pulling numbers out your ass is great on the internet as half the fools belive what you say.
you must be talking about WoW no? How exactly do you get 1 million more subscribers in one month? GG blizzard
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It means something in the context of the original thread which opens a discussion as to whether that number would be considered good or bad. I say bad and explained why. But then the thread became about fanboys spinning a clearly bad, or at least not good, number into millions of subs. So, that leaves us unsure if the number is legitimate or not, perhaps we can get honest comments on whether it is good or bad IF it is accurate and leave the accuracy to a second conversation.
Also consider this, if lotRO was off to a million box sales and 500k subs on the way to a million then would they be quiet? I mean to say that we all know that bandwagon advertising (the whole everyone else is type stuff) is one of the more effective means of reaching people so why would they be so secretive and silent if they had a true megahit on thier hands? And make no mistake, if the numbers of sales.subs where of the level suggested by fans in this thread and others the game would be well considered a megahit and Turbine would be broadcasting it as loudly as they could.
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From your very own statement we know that the 172k figure is NOT fact.
As to whether 172k for NA boxes is a good number or not... well, that's just it. What do we have as proof for a benchmark to base that number against? Really, go ahead and try to find some single month or even single quarter pc games (Especially MMO games) box sales. Even use NPD figures if you want. (Even though I don't really trust them anymore either).
There are lots of charts on how much money was made (but again, we have no idea what that translates into box numbers), and there is a lot of Top Ten lists without any numbers at all.
The only box sales that are easy to come up with are total sales to date. Like for WoW, and Myst, and Sims, and whatever... but try finding box sales for a single month or quarter for those games or any PC games... then we'll have some benchmark to judge by (even if the numbers are dubious).
As it stands right now, I have no idea if 172k is good or bad. List some data (preferably a link) that show where that number fits, and then I'll know how that number compares.
Remember we are trying to cut down on the SPIN.
Look, it is perfectly reasonable to say something like "I see it is reported at GS that LotRO sold 172k boxes in NA in the first quarter. That seems kind of low, maybe even bad, for a major title released with no competition". If someone disagrees with the number as reported a valid argument would be something like "Yeah, I read that - but I honestly don't give much credit to GS for reporting accurate sales numbers". Perhaps even something like, "I agree that 172k in one quarter for NA for a big title is a low but I can't say I believe GS when it comes to such figures" or "I disagree, 172k in NA seems like a good start" (the later hearing being validly stated but something I would contest). What has caused all the consternation in this thread is those who accept the number and then go on to project double or more that number for Europe and triple or quadruple that number for chine and then assign, magically, 500k or 1 million subs to the game with nothing as support and in the face of the reported number.
I mean look back at the other post I linked to by one of the staunchest opponents to what I have said in this thread. he states that he pressumes subs at 150k or so in US and same in Europe and that once China launches it will go to 1 million. All with no sourcing and even as he accepts, or doesn't argue it as inaccurate, the 172k number referenced in this thread. That kind of wild fantastical assumptive reasoning is what this thread is really about, and why I think so many ar anxious to tackle LotRO. people just don't like a big braggart and LotRO has been that.
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Yada yada yada , blah blah blah. 172 K is 9 weeks of a quarter in N America only. Lotro's release was a good one and they have signed with the largest distributer in China. I think that is great and I think, hope, and speculate that they will break a million. I f I am wrong, come back at end of the year and quote this. In the meantime EQII is scrambling to retain customers, Vanguard is merging servers, and AoC has beeen delayed for the 6th time. Have a nice day.
I miss DAoC
And whatever, at least they haven't resorted to giving away free months within 4 months of realease. it took 2 1/2 years for that to happen. If anyone is scrambling, it's the scam artists at Turbine.
Bite me, Turbine.