I have seen in your post history you expected around 500 K sales yourself.
With 49 servers (of which 20 on wait status), it is curious your "gut feeling" is confirmed by the 10K players per server stats.
Again a coincidence...
It sounds like you're being willfully irrational, or just looking for arguments to 'win' your fight.
Me expecting 500k at launch has nothing to do with me saying each MMO server can only hold 10k subs, because the cold hard facts support my gut feeling that this hasn't been the case for MMO's for years now, 20-30k subs and a capacity of 5k concurrent players being the norm for MMO servers.
This is going nowhere. And it's becoming boring and petty when all kinds of irrelevant arguments are dragged into the debate just to score points. At least boring to me, I'm out, you can have your last word if you crave further fighting. I'll say let the sales figures and server count speak for themselves.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Actually that's the number of characters per side.
And the 1500 number is actually the CONCURRENT players, not maximum number of players/server.
When it says legions at the top and gives a number at the bottom, it's safe to assume that the number is indeed legions. Whether these legions are still active or long dead and defunct is another matter.
Actually that's the number of characters per side.
And the 1500 number is actually the CONCURRENT players, not maximum number of players/server.
Yes, that's what I have been saying all the time.
3K-4K concurrent on average with around 30% on line at the same time for a launching game (less for an older game).
The 1500 number mentioned by Rift developpers is btw very near the number of War players at launch.
Above that figure you got nasty lag with the same engine in WAR.
Curious that same number (1500 shows up again), because back then WAR fans wouldn't believe it either ... until some added the player numbers in each zone and it confirmed this number.
Christ, it's zorndorf again....Seriously, according you're a 39 years old Frenchman(right......) yet you have nothing better do than spreading doom and gloom about a game that has been so far very well received. Are you so insecure that you have to do that to any game that has the potential to reduce the amount of cash flown in to Bobby Kotick everymonth? Don't worry, Rift is not going to kill WoW, if anything, Rift's success will be beneficial to WoW, because Blizzard will have to wake the fuck up and actually try to improve WoW.
If you want to spread doom and gloom about a game, at least do it the games that have actually flopped, like FF XIV.
Zorndorf? Good grief. When was that pulled out ?
Since when is pointing out the capacity of servers on a ridiculous hyped game considered a crime these days?
Wasn't your point that the sales were low would mean Rift would fail?
What happened to playing a game for fun and not by popularity or sales figure.....
Wasn't your point that the sales were low would mean Rift would fail?
What happened to playing a game for fun and not by popularity or sales figure.....
No my point is that my theory of 10 K pops per server is always a good reference to see expected populations. As long as we speak about single server realms. (it doesn't apply to EVE or ST like games).
You can't store more than X people in one room after all.
Calling the bluff on some statements about millions is not even unhealthy.
Number of pre launch servers says it all really: 29 servers US/EU
So they know that the 46 servers of "open" beta as free play didn't quite match the pre orders.
I suppose they will launch the 15 to 20 additional servers on the retail launch.
So the servers always tell the truth: 400 - 500 K max players on retail launch.
Pretty much the same number of MMO fans that hop from game to game. In fact it will be less than AoC (65 servers), War (113 EU/US servers !) and Aion west.
That shows a clear trend.
I don't think it will have higher retention rates as the usual things either.
Its very weak point is the Rifts: they will be boring within days.
The game will not climb after 2 or 3 months at all.
And finally everyone will see that the so called "polish" question was never the reasons why Aoc or WAR failed.
Copies never succeed: the game was already played for 6 years and it gets over before it even starts.
There is no reason to invest time and money in an mmo that is a bad copy of a Blizzard game.
Isn't it right here is where you said it would fail?
Since when is pointing out the capacity of servers on a ridiculous hyped game considered a crime these days?
Dude, are you so ashamed of yourself that you refuse to admit that was your old username? If you want to pretend to be a different dude then at least change your attitude and posting style, anyone can see it from a mile away.
Originally posted by pragues
Yes, that's what I have been saying all the time.
3K-4K concurrent on average with around 30% on line at the same time for a launching game (less for an older game).
The 1500 number mentioned by Rift developpers is btw very near the number of War players at launch.
Where did you get this 3k-4k concurrent on average in Aion? Because I was at Aion's launch the the average number of player per side was 600-900 and than was on Nezekan and Siel, 2 of the most populated servers, the number of players per side never exceed 1k. 2 months ago I checked back and it was still pretty much the same.
Above that figure you got nasty lag with the same engine in WAR.
Curious that same number (1500 shows up again), because back then WAR fans wouldn't believe it either ... until some added the player numbers in each zone and it confirmed this number.
What make you so assured that it was the engine's faults that WAR got nasty lag and not poor network coding? Whatever it is I was in Rift's last beta during peaktime and do Rift event with more than a hundred people on screen and got zero lag, much to my surprise.
While many people seem to be negative about this game and are busy saying it is just a copy and doesn't bring anything new to the genre this does miss the point that there is a lot of disatisfaction out there amoung players and that many players have left the other games and so now are looking for something new.
Because of this there is quite a bit of interest in the game and during the beta sessions most players were very positive and were having fun and as a result I think that the initial sales for Rift will be healthy but not spectacular. As has been mentioned retention of players has been an issue in for other games in the past and how well Rift does will depend on not only how polished the game is and how much content it has for players to work through but how good it is at encouraging social relationships which is the main reason people play a MMO of any type.
So far Trion hasn't done anything too obviously wrong and I think that if they continue as they have been that there is a very good chance that the game will be around for a bit.
To those that want to take a wait and see attitude I can understand that but the state of Rift as it is right now is very good and very fun and many people are going to be in the game experiencing that. Even if in the long run the game fails to hold the attention of large number of players right now there is enough in the game for people to get their money's worth out of it and that's not bad.
This one namely shows figures of 20k per server, not 10k.
Btw, terms as 'owned' in general and 'how sad' show the true reason why someone posts their arguments, namely gloating while trashtalking other games that aren't the one they're fanatic about.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Just saying that your own link and arguments supporting it were hilariously wrong. Admit it. Then again, as far as I see it the goal wasn't guessing the sales figures or determining true server capacity, but merely gloating and talking a game down that wasn't precious WoW.
Anyway, I'm really off now, topic has strayed way too far from its OP.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Launch figures aren't average. Launch figures are always peak, as in peaking in the number of subs and concurrent players and peaking in straining each server capacity.
We'll see how Rift's launch and peak figures will be, but for other MMO's that has been 20-30k subs per server and 5-7k concurrent players per server. We'll see after a few weeks how Rift compares to those other MMO's.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Launch figures aren't average. Launch figures are always peak, as in peaking in the number of subs and concurrent players and peaking in straining each server capacity.
This is untrue. This is ONLY true for a "failed" launch. Examples of games that do not/have not followed this trend: EQ, WoW, EvE, Lineage, UO, GW.
Launch figures aren't average. Launch figures are always peak, as in peaking in the number of subs and concurrent players and peaking in straining each server capacity.
We'll see how Rift's launch and peak figures will be, but for other MMO's that has been 20-30k subs per server and 5-7k concurrent players per server. We'll see after a few weeks how Rift compares to those other MMO's.
Incredible really.
The infrastructre with 29 servers is 200K for >Rift now. No discussion even possible with the official word of Rift developpers thrown in.
The OP was about sales estimates.
If they want to have 1M players, they'll need 150 servers instead of the current 29 ...
To the guy who stated they had 7 million pre orders, phew: I pity the logistics officer of Rift in the next 2 weeks.
Launch figures aren't average. Launch figures are always peak, as in peaking in the number of subs and concurrent players and peaking in straining each server capacity.
This is untrue. This is ONLY true for a "failed" launch. Examples of games that do not/have not followed this trend: EQ, WoW, EvE, Lineage, UO, GW.
I wouldn't call LotrO a failed launch, yet they peaked at launch too. The reason for that was that those were old times, the community of MMO gamers behaved differently, MMO's were less known, so they gradually built up interest from people outside of MMO gaming, WoW itself introduced many people to MMO gaming, also after its launch. After 2005 when millions have been introduced to MMORPG games, the interest and awareness of MMO gamers for new titles is far larger, many of them wanting to be there at its launch.
Anyway, your examples are incorrect: GW and EVE Online use both a different model for server infrastructure, they don't have separate world servers, and WoW servers were strained to their capacity too at launch. When WoW grew, simply more servers were opened.
Originally posted by Brahm
What is exactly the relevance of knowing box sales and subscription for games?
Could someone please enilighten me I why this affects most people playing these games?
It isn't. It's just being used by defenders and bashers of a game as a measure to determine its success or 'fail' in the neverending war of comparing and putting one MMO vs another.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
What is exactly the relevance of knowing box sales and subscription for games?
I suppose if your a stock holder in a company or the gaming company has some financial responsibiltiy to you it might be pertinent somehow.
Could someone please enilighten me I why this affects most people playing these games?
it only affects people who like the game, if the game doesnt do well. but this is a trolling post, its used by people who dont like the game and by those who do beyond the normal i.e. fanboy. they think that by prooving that the box sales are below some number they make up that the game is a failure or above some number a success, while the normal world knows that if the game is making a profit and the company continues to create content and fix problems, that the game won't be going any where to some's displeasure and others pleasure.
to my mind, if the box sales cover half the costs to create the game and has enough subs to continue under profitability then all is good in my Rift world.
Brahm let me try. It is common for people to seek validation. We ask others what they think about something we may have done or will do not because we want confirmation that our choices are correct.
Players love to know their game is successful and it makes them part of the club of players of a successful game. It may have no bearing whatsoever on the actual gameplay or enjoyment but it makes you feel like a member of an exclusive club . It also reassures that your game will not suddenly shut down or lose a whole bunch of players and you are left with fewer people to play with.
What is exactly the relevance of knowing box sales and subscription for games?
I suppose if your a stock holder in a company or the gaming company has some financial responsibiltiy to you it might be pertinent somehow.
Could someone please enilighten me I why this affects most people playing these games?
Allow me to explain. Lets say Rift sells 2 million copies at launch and a more than generous 50% of these sales are new gamers not subbed to any current MMO. That is still 1 million players taking leave from another MMO to play Rift therefore, the question is which MMO lost these players? The sales figures don't matter unless you are trying to prove Rift is 'that' game, The WoW Killer. I doubt anyone could argue that Rift will flop as it has been well recieved during it's extensive betas, unlike other games such as WAR, AoC, and FFXIV.
So in the end it is just a clever way of wording "Will Rift take WoWs title?".
Comments
Actually that's the number of characters per side.
And the 1500 number is actually the CONCURRENT players, not maximum number of players/server.
It sounds like you're being willfully irrational, or just looking for arguments to 'win' your fight.
Me expecting 500k at launch has nothing to do with me saying each MMO server can only hold 10k subs, because the cold hard facts support my gut feeling that this hasn't been the case for MMO's for years now, 20-30k subs and a capacity of 5k concurrent players being the norm for MMO servers.
This is going nowhere. And it's becoming boring and petty when all kinds of irrelevant arguments are dragged into the debate just to score points. At least boring to me, I'm out, you can have your last word if you crave further fighting. I'll say let the sales figures and server count speak for themselves.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
When it says legions at the top and gives a number at the bottom, it's safe to assume that the number is indeed legions. Whether these legions are still active or long dead and defunct is another matter.
Yes, that's what I have been saying all the time.
3K-4K concurrent on average with around 30% on line at the same time for a launching game (less for an older game).
The 1500 number mentioned by Rift developpers is btw very near the number of War players at launch.
Above that figure you got nasty lag with the same engine in WAR.
Curious that same number (1500 shows up again), because back then WAR fans wouldn't believe it either ... until some added the player numbers in each zone and it confirmed this number.
Wasn't your point that the sales were low would mean Rift would fail?
What happened to playing a game for fun and not by popularity or sales figure.....
No my point is that my theory of 10 K pops per server is always a good reference to see expected populations. As long as we speak about single server realms. (it doesn't apply to EVE or ST like games).
You can't store more than X people in one room after all.
Calling the bluff on some statements about millions is not even unhealthy.
It is called realism.
Isn't it right here is where you said it would fail?
Dude, are you so ashamed of yourself that you refuse to admit that was your old username? If you want to pretend to be a different dude then at least change your attitude and posting style, anyone can see it from a mile away.
While many people seem to be negative about this game and are busy saying it is just a copy and doesn't bring anything new to the genre this does miss the point that there is a lot of disatisfaction out there amoung players and that many players have left the other games and so now are looking for something new.
Because of this there is quite a bit of interest in the game and during the beta sessions most players were very positive and were having fun and as a result I think that the initial sales for Rift will be healthy but not spectacular. As has been mentioned retention of players has been an issue in for other games in the past and how well Rift does will depend on not only how polished the game is and how much content it has for players to work through but how good it is at encouraging social relationships which is the main reason people play a MMO of any type.
So far Trion hasn't done anything too obviously wrong and I think that if they continue as they have been that there is a very good chance that the game will be around for a bit.
To those that want to take a wait and see attitude I can understand that but the state of Rift as it is right now is very good and very fun and many people are going to be in the game experiencing that. Even if in the long run the game fails to hold the attention of large number of players right now there is enough in the game for people to get their money's worth out of it and that's not bad.
So the 29 servers will hold around 45 K players concurrently.
That's around 200K non concurrently.
That's even 100 K ... less then I thought guys.
http://www.riftnexus.com/topic/350-actual-server-last-qa-from-rift-irc-before-2011/
Thank you for non believing. Like I said: no need to call out names when the truth is always out there...
You're using an old article dated back to early December, when Rift's hype wasn't high, the situation now is much more different from back then.
We'll start believing you the Trion announce the sales number(if it fit your number), we'll see who'll be the "non believer". Keep laughing.
You even doubt the statements of the Trion developpers themselves now? " 1500 players per server " ?
I mean how much proof do you guys really want this is just another MMO...
Read my edited post, and have I mentioned that the players cap was raised in later betas?
Funny, that you didn't quote the Aion NA link, maybe for a reason:
http://na.aiononline.com/livestatus/server/
This one namely shows figures of 20k per server, not 10k.
Btw, terms as 'owned' in general and 'how sad' show the true reason why someone posts their arguments, namely gloating while trashtalking other games that aren't the one they're fanatic about.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Too late and not needed.
http://www.riftnexus.com/topic/350-actual-server-last-qa-from-rift-irc-before-2011/
Shows that Rift has a "target number of 1500 player per server".
Just like I thought. Same engine as WAR, same limits.
So the 29 servers will serve around 200K players in Rift (non concurrent).
until retail launch of course.
To go to 1.000.000 players (like some stated) they would need around 150 servers ...
It shows just how out of proportion mmorpg forum posters hype about new games.
Just saying that your own link and arguments supporting it were hilariously wrong. Admit it. Then again, as far as I see it the goal wasn't guessing the sales figures or determining true server capacity, but merely gloating and talking a game down that wasn't precious WoW.
Anyway, I'm really off now, topic has strayed way too far from its OP.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
So next time guys: think of the rule - on average - 10K subs per server is pretty much standard stuff for any single realm based MMO.
Rift and War are clearly under this average (7K), while indeed Aion is clearly above that 10K average.
But 10K/server is always a good indication for a standard MMO.
Launch figures aren't average. Launch figures are always peak, as in peaking in the number of subs and concurrent players and peaking in straining each server capacity.
We'll see how Rift's launch and peak figures will be, but for other MMO's that has been 20-30k subs per server and 5-7k concurrent players per server. We'll see after a few weeks how Rift compares to those other MMO's.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
This is untrue. This is ONLY true for a "failed" launch. Examples of games that do not/have not followed this trend: EQ, WoW, EvE, Lineage, UO, GW.
Incredible really.
The infrastructre with 29 servers is 200K for >Rift now. No discussion even possible with the official word of Rift developpers thrown in.
The OP was about sales estimates.
If they want to have 1M players, they'll need 150 servers instead of the current 29 ...
To the guy who stated they had 7 million pre orders, phew: I pity the logistics officer of Rift in the next 2 weeks.
What is exactly the relevance of knowing box sales and subscription for games?
I suppose if your a stock holder in a company or the gaming company has some financial responsibiltiy to you it might be pertinent somehow.
Could someone please enilighten me I why this affects most people playing these games?
I wouldn't call LotrO a failed launch, yet they peaked at launch too. The reason for that was that those were old times, the community of MMO gamers behaved differently, MMO's were less known, so they gradually built up interest from people outside of MMO gaming, WoW itself introduced many people to MMO gaming, also after its launch. After 2005 when millions have been introduced to MMORPG games, the interest and awareness of MMO gamers for new titles is far larger, many of them wanting to be there at its launch.
Anyway, your examples are incorrect: GW and EVE Online use both a different model for server infrastructure, they don't have separate world servers, and WoW servers were strained to their capacity too at launch. When WoW grew, simply more servers were opened.
It isn't. It's just being used by defenders and bashers of a game as a measure to determine its success or 'fail' in the neverending war of comparing and putting one MMO vs another.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
it only affects people who like the game, if the game doesnt do well. but this is a trolling post, its used by people who dont like the game and by those who do beyond the normal i.e. fanboy. they think that by prooving that the box sales are below some number they make up that the game is a failure or above some number a success, while the normal world knows that if the game is making a profit and the company continues to create content and fix problems, that the game won't be going any where to some's displeasure and others pleasure.
to my mind, if the box sales cover half the costs to create the game and has enough subs to continue under profitability then all is good in my Rift world.
Brahm let me try. It is common for people to seek validation. We ask others what they think about something we may have done or will do not because we want confirmation that our choices are correct.
Players love to know their game is successful and it makes them part of the club of players of a successful game. It may have no bearing whatsoever on the actual gameplay or enjoyment but it makes you feel like a member of an exclusive club . It also reassures that your game will not suddenly shut down or lose a whole bunch of players and you are left with fewer people to play with.
Allow me to explain. Lets say Rift sells 2 million copies at launch and a more than generous 50% of these sales are new gamers not subbed to any current MMO. That is still 1 million players taking leave from another MMO to play Rift therefore, the question is which MMO lost these players? The sales figures don't matter unless you are trying to prove Rift is 'that' game, The WoW Killer. I doubt anyone could argue that Rift will flop as it has been well recieved during it's extensive betas, unlike other games such as WAR, AoC, and FFXIV.
So in the end it is just a clever way of wording "Will Rift take WoWs title?".