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Sales Estimate?

1568101114

Comments

  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    These numbers are probably off for two reasons. No idea if they are higher or lower.

    In beta events people are usually a lot more active than when playing their normal MMOs. Especially in betas that are limited in days. So, given that, the number of players should be a lot less than what you describe.

    On the other hand, betas lose people constantly. It's the people that go, take a loot and disappear. So the numbers can be a lot more than what you describe.

    No they are not "off" as the max number of concurrent users (3-4K) is simply based on the present day technology of SQL  servers.

    If you like you can look it up on the average number of players on XXX realms. I use X before you accuse me of promoting X again.

    3-4K concurrent users is simply the number of concurrent users the database servers can handle. And yes every year they are being updated, not so much to hold on more players but to be faster in their data handling (mind you we speak of few %).

    For a new MMO that means you can count of having 30% of the players on line at any given moment (or trying to get in - mostly in vain). for the older MMO's it is around 20 to 25%.

    So what we have here is now a worldwide infrastructure of 46 servers which comes to a maximum capactity of 150 K concurrent and 450 K non concurrent player population.

    These days operational servers are topped off at slightly above 4K concurrent players, because no one risks to run servers on maxed out capacity.

  • SeffrenSeffren Member Posts: 743

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    These numbers are probably off for two reasons. No idea if they are higher or lower.

    In beta events people are usually a lot more active than when playing their normal MMOs. Especially in betas that are limited in days. So, given that, the number of players should be a lot less than what you describe.

    On the other hand, betas lose people constantly. It's the people that go, take a loot and disappear. So the numbers can be a lot more than what you describe.

    No they are not "off" as the max number of concurrent users (3-4K) is simply based on the present day technology of SQL  servers.

    If you like you can look it up on the average number of players on XXX realms. I use X before you accuse me of promoting X again.

    3-4K concurrent users is simply the number of concurrent users the database servers can handle. And yes every year they are being updated, not so much to hold on more players but to be faster in their data handling (mind you we speak of few %).

    For a new MMO that means you can count of having 30% of the players on line at any given moment (or trying to get in - mostly in vain). for the older MMO's it is around 20 to 25%.

    So what we have here is now a worldwide infrastructure of 46 servers which comes to a maximum capactity of 150 K concurrent and 450 K non concurrent player population.

    These days operational servers are topped off at slightly above 4K concurrent players, because no one risks to run servers on maxed out capacity.

    Hmm just did a simple search on msdn and allready got different results for user connections:

    http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms143432.aspx

    User connections: 32,767

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Hmm, I know of a beta test where 210k beta testers were facilitated with 7 servers - first 6, but they added 1 -, resulting in an average of 30k per server.

    As for how much a server can potentially handle in concurrent and total player numbers, best would be to take a recent example to compare: anyone has the server count and player numbers of DCUO?

     

    As for Rift, I'm guessing around 500k at launch.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337

    Sigh, the connection discussion. What's now missing is the xfire numbers discussion.

    Feels like old times on these forums.

  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    Originally posted by Seffren

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    These numbers are probably off for two reasons. No idea if they are higher or lower.

    In beta events people are usually a lot more active than when playing their normal MMOs. Especially in betas that are limited in days. So, given that, the number of players should be a lot less than what you describe.

    On the other hand, betas lose people constantly. It's the people that go, take a loot and disappear. So the numbers can be a lot more than what you describe.

    No they are not "off" as the max number of concurrent users (3-4K) is simply based on the present day technology of SQL  servers.

    If you like you can look it up on the average number of players on XXX realms. I use X before you accuse me of promoting X again.

    3-4K concurrent users is simply the number of concurrent users the database servers can handle. And yes every year they are being updated, not so much to hold on more players but to be faster in their data handling (mind you we speak of few %).

    For a new MMO that means you can count of having 30% of the players on line at any given moment (or trying to get in - mostly in vain). for the older MMO's it is around 20 to 25%.

    So what we have here is now a worldwide infrastructure of 46 servers which comes to a maximum capactity of 150 K concurrent and 450 K non concurrent player population.

    These days operational servers are topped off at slightly above 4K concurrent players, because no one risks to run servers on maxed out capacity.

    Hmm just did a simple search on msdn and allready got different results for user connections:

    http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms143432.aspx

    User connections: 32,767

    No those are single user snapshots. MMO's have an open interaction with the SQL server and are merge like (see that would it bring it down to ... 256).

    To have a view of the average operational  system: http://www.warcraftrealms.com/activity.php with concurrent users.

    While not very accurate because of the samples you see that the average max. height stands at 3K per realm.

    So the 10K (3K concurrent) rule for 1 server is very much spot on.

  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337

    Really? How does EVE work then? Miracle?

     

    There is one thing that limits server population numbers and that's landmass coverage.

  • SeffrenSeffren Member Posts: 743

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Seffren


    Originally posted by pragues


    Originally posted by Xasapis

    These numbers are probably off for two reasons. No idea if they are higher or lower.

    In beta events people are usually a lot more active than when playing their normal MMOs. Especially in betas that are limited in days. So, given that, the number of players should be a lot less than what you describe.

    On the other hand, betas lose people constantly. It's the people that go, take a loot and disappear. So the numbers can be a lot more than what you describe.

    No they are not "off" as the max number of concurrent users (3-4K) is simply based on the present day technology of SQL  servers.

    If you like you can look it up on the average number of players on XXX realms. I use X before you accuse me of promoting X again.

    3-4K concurrent users is simply the number of concurrent users the database servers can handle. And yes every year they are being updated, not so much to hold on more players but to be faster in their data handling (mind you we speak of few %).

    For a new MMO that means you can count of having 30% of the players on line at any given moment (or trying to get in - mostly in vain). for the older MMO's it is around 20 to 25%.

    So what we have here is now a worldwide infrastructure of 46 servers which comes to a maximum capactity of 150 K concurrent and 450 K non concurrent player population.

    These days operational servers are topped off at slightly above 4K concurrent players, because no one risks to run servers on maxed out capacity.

    Hmm just did a simple search on msdn and allready got different results for user connections:

    http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/ms143432.aspx

    User connections: 32,767

    No those are single user snapshots. MMO's have an open interaction with the SQL server and are merge like (see that would it bring it down to ... 256).

    To have a view of the average operational  system: http://www.warcraftrealms.com/activity.php with concurrent users.

    While not very accurate because of the samples you see that the average max. height stands at 3K per realm.

    So the 10K (3K concurrent) rule for 1 server is very much spot on.

    Only thing I see you posting is an average of users online from another game. And then you generalize it to all other games.

    I was under the impression you talked SQL servers and I just posted a piece from MS stating that your assumption is wrong.

    Not interested in derailing this thread so you have fun with your numbers.

  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    Really? How does EVE work then? Miracle?

     

    There is one thing that limits server population numbers and that's landmass coverage.

    That's because EVE uses server clusters independant of single realm based technology. Rift is a tradtional single realm based MMO to log in.

    @ the above: the average  stats shown can be retraced for games like War, AoC, Aion, etc just browse the internet.

  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    Really? How does EVE work then? Miracle?

     

    There is one thing that limits server population numbers and that's landmass coverage.

    That's because EVE uses server clusters independant of single realm based technology. Rift is a tradtional single realm based MMO to log in.

    @ the above: the average  stats shown can be retraced for games like War, AoC, Aion, etc just browse the internet.

    Who told you they don't use server clusters? In fact, is there an MMO out there who doesn't at this point?

  • SeffrenSeffren Member Posts: 743

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    Really? How does EVE work then? Miracle?

     

    There is one thing that limits server population numbers and that's landmass coverage.

    That's because EVE uses server clusters independant of single realm based technology. Rift is a tradtional single realm based MMO to log in.

    @ the above: the average  stats shown can be retraced for games like War, AoC, Aion, etc just browse the internet.

    Ok, I'll post one more then.

    Why wouldn't Rifts sql servers be in cluster format? Doesn't that up your so called concurrent users online number?

    Like I said before .. have fun with your numbers.

     

    Edit:  Xasapis allready answered it.

  • fyerwallfyerwall Member UncommonPosts: 3,240

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    Really? How does EVE work then? Miracle?

     

    There is one thing that limits server population numbers and that's landmass coverage.

    That's because EVE uses server clusters independant of single realm based technology. Rift is a tradtional single realm based MMO to log in.

    Actually MMO realms use clusters as well. Just because you log into a server/realm named say "Realm 1" it doesnt mean that its all one server. Take WoW for example. Everyone has experienced a point where Eastern Kingdoms went down while people were still able to play in Kalimdor, Northrend or Outlands. Each continent was its own part of the cluster. In games like Vangaurd there are more clusters (every chunk line you passed was a new server - hence why you sometimes got booted back over the line). Even games like AO and EQ had many multiple servers per realm (hence the zoning - switching servers).

    A realm can support much more than 3-4k players depending on how much they break up the realm as well as how much the company is willing to spend on teh hardware and support. Smaller clusters - smaller per realm caps = cheaper in the long run.

    There are 3 types of people in the world.
    1.) Those who make things happen
    2.) Those who watch things happen
    3.) And those who wonder "What the %#*& just happened?!"


  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    Really? How does EVE work then? Miracle?

     

    There is one thing that limits server population numbers and that's landmass coverage.

    That's because EVE uses server clusters independant of single realm based technology. Rift is a tradtional single realm based MMO to log in.

    @ the above: the average  stats shown can be retraced for games like War, AoC, Aion, etc just browse the internet.

    Who told you they don't use server clusters? In fact, is there an MMO out there who doesn't at this point?

    I think it is very clear: every single realm you enter is attached to one server to play on. The maximim capacity of each realm server is around 3-4K on operational mode. Perhaps in some experimental set up you could go to 6 or 7K, but no one is risking server crashes in operational modes. You can have instance servers of course, but the main realm server is limited to those numbers.

    Above that you will not see much moving avatars and a lot of crashing connections.

  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337

    See answer above. Case closed.

  • SeffrenSeffren Member Posts: 743

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    See answer above. Case closed.

    Yeah, lets login and have some fun ffs!

     

     

    /grabs keys to car, heads out of office ...

  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    See answer above. Case closed.

     Actually yes: the single server realm  figures show the average 3K - 4K concurrent players on them.

    I think if you want to deny this simple fact .... which by the way is measured and documented for all MMO's, no problem.

    I know the 10K pop for 1 server average was always spot on to see max capacity of these systems in recent years.

  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337

    Forget EVE. How do you explain Darkfall? Another miracle?

     

    It's all about how many people your landmass can entertain these days.

  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    Forget EVE. How do you explain Darkfall? Another miracle?

     

    It's all about how many people your landmass can entertain these days.

    I didn't find any hard evidence about Darkfall in such short notice. And in viewing they have a very small community, it is no wonder they all can live on one or two servers.

    But here are some official Aion stats: http://uk.aiononline.com/livestatus/server/

    As you can see each server holds around 10-11K players (actively played in the last days or so).

    NCsoft was bragging they could bring it up to 7K on each realm server, but like I thought the operational servers hold around 10K (non concurrent of course).

    It is natural the "fans" want to make those numbers as big as possible, but the rest of the bunch (AoC, War, etc)) you can surely trace by yourself.

    46 servers, we will see how it will progress (and 450K is a damned good prognoses for the launching day).

    Edit: yep those figures also show that Aion is played by around 130K players (US/EU combined).

  • Meztli67Meztli67 Member Posts: 5

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    See answer above. Case closed.

     Actually yes: the single server realm  figures show the average 3K - 4K concurrent players on them.

    I think if you want to deny this simple fact .... which by the way is measured and documented for all MMO's, no problem.

    I know the 10K pop for 1 server average was always spot on to see max capacity of these systems in recent years.

    Pragues. I recommend you to get some facts about server architecture before acting as a wise guy. It´s many years since the mmo industry used single server technology. By reading follwing information and looking at the images half way down in the article, you get an more correct idea of todays server architecture: http://radoff.com/blog/2008/08/22/anatomy-of-an-mmorpg/

    Friskyttarna
    A Swedish LotRO kinship
    Evernight EU
    http://friskyttarna.eu

  • praguespragues Member Posts: 161

    Originally posted by Meztli67

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Xasapis

    See answer above. Case closed.

     Actually yes: the single server realm  figures show the average 3K - 4K concurrent players on them.

    I think if you want to deny this simple fact .... which by the way is measured and documented for all MMO's, no problem.

    I know the 10K pop for 1 server average was always spot on to see max capacity of these systems in recent years.

    Pragues. I recommend you to get some facts about server architecture before acting as a wise guy. It´s many years since the mmo industry used single server technology. By reading follwing information and looking at the images half way down in the article, you get an more correct idea of todays server architecture: http://radoff.com/blog/2008/08/22/anatomy-of-an-mmorpg/

    I have an official MS certificate in IIS, SQL and Exchange server, thank you. I am speaking of the individual SLQ realm servers the players are redirected to after the log in server.

    And as shown above with the last launched big one: http://uk.aiononline.com/livestatus/server/ the theory follows the operational stats perfectly. At least click the page.

    I am sure you want to discuss and explain those 10K players per server. Non concurrent of course. As people become allergic to XXX these days, I just show another single realm based game to prove my case.

  • outd00rmineroutd00rminer Member Posts: 37

    Launch - 750k boxed copies sold

    After 30 days - 900k boxed, 600k subbed

    After 60 days - 400k subbed

    Whenever SWTOR launches - 250-300k subbed and should remain steady there

     

    I think they'll do well enough to where they are generating about as much as EVE Online in the mmo-mindshare-space.

  • Meztli67Meztli67 Member Posts: 5

    Originally posted by pragues

    Originally posted by Meztli67


    Originally posted by pragues


    Originally posted by Xasapis

    See answer above. Case closed.

     Actually yes: the single server realm  figures show the average 3K - 4K concurrent players on them.

    I think if you want to deny this simple fact .... which by the way is measured and documented for all MMO's, no problem.

    I know the 10K pop for 1 server average was always spot on to see max capacity of these systems in recent years.

    Pragues. I recommend you to get some facts about server architecture before acting as a wise guy. It´s many years since the mmo industry used single server technology. By reading follwing information and looking at the images half way down in the article, you get an more correct idea of todays server architecture: http://radoff.com/blog/2008/08/22/anatomy-of-an-mmorpg/

    I have an official MS certificate in IIS, SQL and Exchange server, thank you. I am speaking of the individual SLQ realm servers the players are redirected to after the log in server.

    And as shown above with the last launched big one: http://uk.aiononline.com/livestatus/server/ the theory follows the operational stats perfectly. At least click the page.

    I am sure you want to discuss and explain those 10K players per server. Non concurrent of course. As people become allergic to XXX these days, I just show another single realm based game to prove my case.



    Milions of people around the globe including my self are certified MCTS, MCITP, MCSE etc. It does not make a bad statement true. Todays MMOGs use clusters of servers grouped into logical independent units, that represent citys, zones, worlds, but hardly ever an entire realm. Each cluster has an independent datastore. The only exception that i am aware off, is EvE Online that are using only one database server running Microsoft SQL Server 2008 for the entire persistence layer of the game.

    I did read the Aion link, but the figures do not prove anything. I supose you know that EvE Online have a record off more than 60.000 concurrent players. So the only thing the Aion numbers prove, is that they probably use inferior hardware compared to EvE Online.

    Friskyttarna
    A Swedish LotRO kinship
    Evernight EU
    http://friskyttarna.eu

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by pragues

    And as shown above with the last launched big one: http://uk.aiononline.com/livestatus/server/ the theory follows the operational stats perfectly. At least click the page.

    I am sure you want to discuss and explain those 10K players per server. Non concurrent of course. As people become allergic to XXX these days, I just show another single realm based game to prove my case.

    You forget the 210k AoC beta testers with 7 servers. Or the 400k DCUO sales with 26 servers.

    Darkfall btw was stated to handle a 10k concurrent user limit and 30k players max per server, Aion at its peak had 5k-6k concurrent users per server.

     

    Based on DCUO's figures, I think Rift should be able to service 700k players (not concurrent ofc) before new servers need to be added.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • Professor78Professor78 Member UncommonPosts: 611

    Well I am quite impressed that Rift made it into the Top ten on Xfire as 9th most played game (and thats with only half a days worth of hours, tomorrow may show higher) - and how many would bother adding a BETA to Xfire profile?

    Its put in about 7-8% of WOW's hours so I am sure the servers got a good bashing with numbers :)

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    Core i5 13600KF,  BeQuiet Pure Loop FX 360, 32gb DDR5-6000 XPG, WD SN850 NVMe ,PNY 3090 XLR8, Asus Prime Z790-A, Lian-Li O11 PCMR case (limited ed 1045/2000), 32" LG Ultragear 4k Monitor, Logitech G560 LightSync Sound, Razer Deathadder V2 and Razer Blackwidow V3 Keyboard


  • PuremallacePuremallace Member Posts: 1,856

    Originally posted by Professor78

    Well I am quite impressed that Rift made it into the Top ten on Xfire as 9th most played game (and thats with only half a days worth of hours, tomorrow may show higher) - and how many would bother adding a BETA to Xfire profile?

    Its put in about 7-8% of WOW's hours so I am sure the servers got a good bashing with numbers :)

    image



    Uploaded with ImageShack.us







     

    I really wonder what those numbers would look like if more people had xfire installed.

    Trion put out number like 1million..2million ours played for the past 2 three day betas

     

  • Punk999Punk999 Member UncommonPosts: 882

    300k sales.... 100k subs if they keep pumping out content.

    "Negaholics are people who become addicted to negativity and self-doubt, they find fault in most things and never seem to be satisfied."
    ^MMORPG.com

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